The Pomp Podcast - #858 Bitcoin's Wild Price Action This Past Week - BTC On-Chain Analytics

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together we try our best to go through the on-chain metrics and explain what the hell is happening with bitcoin and why has the price been falling i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously I'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as Will, but I'm doing my best to keep up. So before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to

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Starting point is 00:03:23 the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. This week's been a wild one for Bitcoin. Obviously, we have the Russia and Ukraine conflict that continues to play out, but there's many other macro forces at work.

Starting point is 00:03:46 We saw a 7.9% CPI print in inflation numbers. And then we also have a ton of potential questions at the macro economy level. Will a recession end up happening? Will inflation continue? Will the Fed hike rates in the month of March? Nobody knows, but what we do know is that we can go right to the metrics

Starting point is 00:04:02 for Bitcoin specifically, and we can validate, we can audit it for ourselves. So if we go ahead and do that, we can see that Bitcoin right now is trading at $38,768. It's down about half a percent over the last 24 hours. If we then go ahead and look at the Bitcoin-specific statistics, what we can see is that that market cap is about $733 billion or so. On top of that, that's about 90% of the supply being already issued, and miners were paid

Starting point is 00:04:26 $35.5 million over the last 24 hours to continue to secure the most secure computing network in the world. Bitcoin's down about 43% from its all-time high, but it's up about 17% or so from the recent low. If we then go ahead and take a look at the past performance of Bitcoin Gold, the S&P 500, we can see that Bitcoin is down 32% from 12 months ago. That big price drawdown was because Bitcoin was in the period going from about $10,000 to $64,000 between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. This was almost the peak of exactly where Bitcoin peaked out in March of 2021. If we then go ahead and we take a look at the rest of the years, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 years or more in Bitcoin, gold and S&P 500. We can see that Bitcoin has

Starting point is 00:05:14 been steadily outperforming all of these other assets for quite a while. And so if we take a look then at Bitcoin's history, we can see that Bitcoin has only been higher than this current price point, 6.4% of the time. That means that about 93 and a half percent of Bitcoin's life has been at a lower price. And if you bought Bitcoin, then you held till today, you are in profit. If we then go ahead and we take a look at what I think is one of the most important numbers in all of Bitcoin. That compound annual growth rate, you can see that Bitcoin continues over the last decade to compound growth at 143% every year. That is an incredible performance. The sharp ratio of the five years is still 1.5 or so, which puts it steadily above gold,

Starting point is 00:05:56 S&P 500, NASDAQ, or TLT. If we then go ahead and we take a look into Will Clemente and Blockware's newsletter this week, we've got two on-chain metrics that we could show you. The first is this percent futures open interest, but using crypto as margin rather than stable coins or anything else. And you can see that at the beginning of March, we started to see an uptick in that futures open interest. So it's something to continue to pay attention to as more leverage enters the system. Then if we go and we look at whales, what the hell are the whales doing in Bitcoin? Well, we can see that whales actually in the beginning of March or kind of end of February started to sell some of their coins. And what this really tells us is that Bitcoin is becoming

Starting point is 00:06:33 more distributed. The whales hold less of it. But also it tells us that that's probably where a lot of the sell pressure is coming from. Even though we have that geopolitical conflict, even though we have all the macro factors, Bitcoin still is trading within this like $35,000 to $45,000 range. And a lot of it's probably because these whales actually have so much sell pressure in the market. And then lastly, if we go ahead and we take a look, Dylan Leclerc has this great tweet that showed that literally 30,000 Bitcoin were taken off of Coinbase just yesterday. And so ultimately what we're watching is that there's a lot of action that's happening in the Bitcoin market. But because Bitcoin is an open decentralized protocol, that the blockchain is an immutable

Starting point is 00:07:10 ledger that can be audited by anyone, we can see exactly what's happening, who's buying, who's selling, and what those behaviors have in a relationship to price. I continue to think that Bitcoin serves as a great global store of value. It's the only asset in the world that no one owns, no one controls, no one can print more of it. Bitcoin, in light of all of the undisciplined monetary and fiscal policy is still super attractive to me personally. And as we continue to see all sorts of censorship and seizures happening in the various corners of the economic and financial markets, I think Bitcoin, more and more people are getting orange built and they're realizing the true value that it has. That's it for this week. I look forward to talking

Starting point is 00:07:47 next week. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #858 Bitcoin's Wild Price Action This Past Week - BTC On-Chain Analytics

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