The Pomp Podcast - #872 Bitcoin Price Is Primed To Take Off w/ Will Clemente

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the lead insights analyst at BlockWare. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto isn't made to just buy, sell, and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi,

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Starting point is 00:03:15 and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. All right, Bitcoin time.

Starting point is 00:03:34 We have Mr. Will Clemente joining us. Will, what's going on? Yo, yo. All right, let's do a little puppy Cody. looks like a friend for ranger well uh me turning into a dog influencer there's got to be somewhat of a bottom signal right it's no i mean i feel like people are bearish yeah everyone everyone's bored you got people like starting to post like their workout regimens people deleting their twitter and um i don't know i think that's also reflected in a lot of like you know network

Starting point is 00:04:07 activity stuff on chain or volume when you're just looking at like inter-exchange stuff i mean i just think generally we're kind of just you know consolidating and in the meantime people are kind of finding other hobbies or going to the beach yeah i actually don't think that that's necessarily bad for uh for the market to have some consolidation here one of the charts that you've got is literally the consolidation that we're watching where bitcoin's kind of trading in this range um is it just we need a catalyst to kind of break out of the range or what's your expectation uh do we just continue until we get to uh some narrowing of it no i mean it could be a catalyst that breaks us out of it but um you know generally speaking whenever you have like a failed move out

Starting point is 00:04:46 of one end of the range and reclaim that tends to you know if you have a failed breakout to the upside it comes back within the range it tends to be pretty bearish that's what kind of what happened at the end of 2021 so seeing kind of this failed breakdown um whenever it was like four or five days ago uh to the bottom side of the range and reclaimed uh that's you know somewhat of a good sign but we'll see where we break out should have you know another week or two before we get you know substantial move out of this kind of consolidation here it's been about two months now as of this week so yeah i saw you tweeting about this idea of like the price distribution i know you got the chart um in terms of uh there's almost like these levels as to uh uh the

Starting point is 00:05:24 distribution of where bitcoin last trades how do you think about these levels and their importance of uh both you know kind of uh serving as some sort of floor for the price but also some sort of ceiling yeah so like obviously as we just looked at it's just price right um what this is looking at is the actual on-chain volume um so it's telling you the amount of supply that's last moved at different price levels so like opposed to volume that's just telling you you know this amount moved here this amount moved here this is dynamic so you know if let's say five percent of supply last moved at 5k and then it's now moved at 20k then you know then that volume is going to move into that net other price level in this chart.

Starting point is 00:06:06 So that's where the realized price aspect comes from because it's based on when coins last moved. So what you can see is basically like the, another way to visualize the consolidation that we've been in is this kind of quote unquote cluster of volume that we've seen between 36 to 45. And you can see like that the gray bars, the gray just means that's where we are right now.

Starting point is 00:06:28 You can see we're in that really tight, you know, mid part of this kind of consolidation here yeah it's super fascinating that we can get this data right i think that's the part to me that just like yes the the actual individual data sets are really important but the fact that we can see this at all times uh and continue to analyze it just still blows me away even after doing this for a while um talk to us about uh the spot premium and what you're seeing from an actual price standpoint and then how you also think that that uh kind of overlays with, you use quarterlies, but the difference in price, if you will, with the futures and spot price. Right. So the first chart you'll see on the bottom, something called

Starting point is 00:07:06 perpetuals basis. So this is looking at like the weighted average of all the spot exchanges measured against the weighted average of all the perpetual swaps. And so the oscillator is telling you in aggregate, you know, are perps trading at a premium or discount to spot. And so whenever year in green that means that spot is spot is currently in a premium or perps are trading at a discount to spot you know selling the same thing um and then when we're in gray that means that perps are trading at a premium to spot and so generally this is kind of a way to highlight kind of you know exuberance in the market especially from the derivatives market as you can see on the left hand side of the screen that's kind of that october period of 2020 leading up to that big run

Starting point is 00:07:48 up at the end of 2020 into early 2021 you can see that second regime and the kind of midway through last year over the summer um the kind of mini one we went through at the end of september last year and recently the kind of prolonged regime that we've been in for over three months now um of spot kind of leading perps here yeah it's fascinating to watch this um and so if we look at the uh the next one with the quarterlies uh the difference here take a second just to explain what quarterlies are and why this is an important uh kind of understanding of the difference between spot and the futures? Sure. So I think like the, the way that most people have heard of this is like the cash and carry trade. Yep. So essentially what you're doing is you're selling the future.

Starting point is 00:08:31 That's, you know, whatever, in this case, we're talking about three months out. So you're selling the three month future buying spot and then holding that out until expiry capturing the difference. And so that, you know, that works when, when you go out on the futures curve, it's in contango, meaning, you know, out on the term structure, each contract further out is trading at a higher price. And so in early 2021, this got to insane levels up to like 45% kind of at the peak of the market top, which meant that, you know, you could do, you know, execute this trade and get annualized 45%, which is like absolutely insane. Like, I don't know if we'll ever reach that level of exuberance again. Partially because, you know, the market is just

Starting point is 00:09:12 getting more efficient. There's more capital that's coming in. That's going to kind of do these arbitrages. And basically, you know, arbitrages are, in essence, just trying to capture inefficiencies in the market, right. And so I doubt we'll ever get back up to that 45% level. And unless something like absolutely insane happens, like the US Central Bank announces they're allocating to Bitcoin or something like, you know, just like completely outlandish like that. As you can see, as well, like even at the end of 2021, we still didn't even nearly get to that, you know, that level of the basis. So, you know, this is, you know, a driver of capital into spot because as, you know, the basis pushes up, it's incentivizing

Starting point is 00:09:53 people to buy spot and then sell the future. So I think that, you know, this was, it was mostly the grayscale ARB, but this played a role in it as well. And some of that capital inflow that we saw in the spot at the end of 2020 into the early 2021. And then it was a bit at the end of last year. But the kind of key thing that I want to highlight, and the reason I have the chart up, is where we are now. So if you see in the bottom right, it's just kind of bleeding down. And so like pretty much throughout, you know, the chart history that's shown on the screen, you'll see that generally this follows price. But, you know, kind of strangely over the last, call it, you know, two months or so, this has just kind of bled down while price has kind of

Starting point is 00:10:33 just been consolidating, not quite bleeding straight down like the basis has. So to me, this is kind of just indicating there's like a lack of exuberance if you will um you know from the derivatives market and that you know um yeah exactly that like you know essentially you're just you're seeing less people interested in and you know taking this trade uh capital that's perhaps kind of like waiting out to see some decisiveness from the market and just a nice reset in general from from the derivatives market got it and then if we go ahead and we compare it to the actual bitcoin price itself uh it looks even more obvious it seems like right yeah i think this is just another cool way i mean i threw this together like 10-15 minutes ago just like toying around

Starting point is 00:11:14 in glass node actually um but yeah like when you compare the basis to price you could see something similar basically telling you whenever this is rising that you know you're seeing the basis decline in in relativity to the to the bitcoin price all right now let's take a look at the actual on-chain metrics uh supply shock ratios you and i've been talking about this now for almost two years going on, it feels like. It looks like we're just seeing a repeat to some degree of what we saw in the summer of last year, right? Of the supply shock really becoming more and more attractive.

Starting point is 00:11:48 But what's your read on it? Right. So, you know, I think the biggest misconception is like for supply shock, by definition, you need low available float plus demand. And so, you know, this metric is really telling you kind of one side of the equation, which is the low available float. So the higher that this metric goes, the lower the available float is or the higher the qualitative aspect is of Bitcoin's float. Because by definition, when the blue line is ticking up, it's telling you that there's more supply moving to entities who have a lower tendency to sell. So, you know, people who will often talk about like the exchange balances and say that, oh, that doesn't really have any merit, which, by the way, is the purple line.

Starting point is 00:12:29 As the purple line increases, there's more coins being taken off exchanges. You know, the kind of argument there is that, oh, well, people can just move coins right back onto exchanges. Right. And I mean, it's a valid argument. You know, I don't fully agree with that, but I can I can understand the logic that you're that you're trying to create there. But, you know, with a liquid supply, by definition, it's telling you the historical statistical likelihood of those coins being spent again. So it's telling you coins are moving to on-chain entities that have a lower than 25% tendency to sell their coins. So for every four coins they take in, they sell less than 25% of those coins. So seeing this uptick over the last two weeks in both of these is telling you, A, coins are moving off exchanges, but they're moving to entities to have a low history of selling.

Starting point is 00:13:21 a lot of those uh you know withdrawals have come from coinbase in particular upon doing some kind of further digging um but yeah i mean this is a really large divergence i think this is the largest divergence uh going back in the charts history um you know from like 2013 2014 um and you know when you look at this in comparison to like 2018 the big difference was you know it looks very similar you know 2018 looks very similar to like may on the left hand side like may 2021 on this chart. You saw this continually declining, declining, declining until the end of 2018, and it started to reverse again. So there's a very big distinction between late 2018 and what we're seeing now is that this has continued to grind up or in the last two weeks, push pretty

Starting point is 00:14:06 aggressively up, but generally just grinding up. Whereas in the 2018 bear market, you saw this decline more and more. So to me, this is just showing you overall that more supply is getting locked up. And it's basically, you know, the analogy I like to use, which I actually stole from Lynn Alden, who does, who's been kind of dabbling in on-chain analysis. And I think she, she's, you know, she gets it. Obviously she's really smart. She's been saying, you know, the fuel is laid out. You just kind of need a spark for that fuel. Right. And so like the further that this, you know, ticks up, that's showing you there's more and more fuel that's laying out. So, you know, it doesn't tell you that, uh, it just tells you that there's a higher

Starting point is 00:14:42 likelihood or probability of there being some type of supply shock where that demand does kick in substantially. I think, you know, part of the reason that every single time this ticked up in 2020 and kind of like early to mid 2021 and like this was this and exchange balances were just like, you know, I think that was when ever, you know, there was no on-chain backlash or anything. I think part of that was because like you had a steady stream of demand coming in because of the monetary backdrop, right? So you just had like completely easy money, you know, QE infinity.

Starting point is 00:15:15 And so that was generating just this constant bid. So every single time that the, you know, the float drew down, you had that other side of the equation, which was the demand. And so now I think we're kind of in the inverse where this, you know, the float is looking stronger, but that demand because of a lot of kind of the uncertainty

Starting point is 00:15:31 that we're working through this month, we had the Fed hike rates this week, 25 basis points, which is really nothing compared to inflation. But nonetheless, we're kind of working through some of that uncertainty markets, kind of digesting what's going on in Ukraine and Russia. And so, yeah, I think the big thing, though, from this chart is just telling you about the qualitative aspect of that float, which is one half of the equation. Got it. And then when we take a look at this brand new metric,

Starting point is 00:15:58 I think it was David Puel and maybe Checkmate, if I remember correctly. Um, they created this, uh, long-term holder inflation deflation ratio. Uh, you're going to have to explain to everyone what that means. Uh, but it, it's just incredible to watch. Like we're literally watching these measures get created in real time as a number of smart folks continue to analyze the data. But what, what exactly is this metric showing? For sure.

Starting point is 00:16:21 So this is, again, as you said, created by David Puel, who's from ARK Invest, one of my good friends and checkmate from Glassnode. He's the lead analyst at Glassnode. So their idea was, you know, relatively straightforward. It's just, you know, we've been talking about long term holder supply for a long time. But what they kind of decided to do is kind of obvious, but genius at the same time is compare the rate of increase in long term holder supply to Bitcoin's issuance. So it's basically telling you the pace of, you know, the of how fast long term holder supply is increasing, which means two things. It means a short term holders are aging into long term holders.

Starting point is 00:17:00 So they're aging past that threshold to be considered long-term holders, as well as long-term holders themselves accumulating. But the two of those things combined lead to long-term holder supply increasing. So they're looking at the rate of increase, the annualized rate and increase of long-term holder supply compared to Bitcoin's issuance. And that's what that red line is here. And so as you can see, this has been actually a really strong signal. And we're at the highest that the ratio has ever been, which means that, you know, essentially the kind of deflationary aspect of long term holders locking up supply is at an all time high, you know, throughout all of Bitcoin's history thus far. Yeah, this is wild that I love the kind of thought process of like, we're laying the fuel and just every metric that you're showing, right, is we're getting more and more data points that kind of confirm this idea that yes, there is going to have to be some sort of catalyst. But it's definitely laying out there. You've got market inflation rate and derivatives here as well. And when you look at this, it seems to be saying, you know, pretty similar thing as well. And we got kind of this flash green on this chart. Yeah. So I basically took the exact same methodology that I just described with Checkmate and David, what they did. And then I just replaced a long-term holder supply. Instead, I added in or replaced it with a supply that hasn't moved in at least a year ago.

Starting point is 00:18:25 or on Glassnode, it's called supply last active one year plus. So it's telling you the amount of supply that hasn't, you know, moved at all in one year or more. And then it's telling, it's comparing that, you know, rate of change to Bitcoin's issuance. Again, the same methodology we just talked about, just different metric, you know, supply last active one year ago, instead of long-term holder supply. And what you see is whenever this reaches this certain threshold that kind of, I highlighted here on the screen with the blue line, that has kind of a four for four hit rate in terms of translating to kind of positive price action for Bitcoin over, you know, a multi-month basis. Obviously a lot of these things aren't telling you what's going

Starting point is 00:19:03 to happen with price in the next few days. These are things that are kind of used for, you know, you know, more broader term investors and capital allocators that are, you know, just looking for better broad entry points into, you know, allocating to BTC with longer time horizons. And so like, you know, again, this is showing something very similar, not quite, you know, at the all-time high that the previous, you know, the metric using long-term older supply is. But again, it's showing you that we're getting to this substantial level of supply getting locked up. It's just a different measure of showing that same kind of dynamic that we looked at in the last two charts, really. And then when we look at on-chain cost basis, obviously the price is

Starting point is 00:19:41 trading below that kind of on-chain cost basis. What are the ramifications of that? And is it basically, we shouldn't expect to see any more kind of euphoria return to the market until we back up over this? Yeah, I think that's a fair way to put it. You know, like, this is the metric that we kind of flipped cautious below once we broke below it at 53k. You know, that was kind of where I was like, yeah, I don't know. Like, you know, we kind of lost a lot of the momentum, a lot of strength, you know, at the end of December. And I still think for, you know, momentum, I think there's value in momentum buyers. And, you know, until we kind of reclaim this, I don't think we've kind of, you know, reclaimed that, you know, momentum in the market. And so, for kind of

Starting point is 00:20:28 momentum-based market participants, this is one of the main metrics that I would kind of want to keep in mind in addition to just traditional moving averages. The psychology behind this is basically very similar to SOPR. So, essentially, it's telling you where the average cost basis, by definition, is of all the market participants that have been in the market for less than 155 days. And so it's kind of a raging bull market whenever you retest that cost basis, because Bitcoin is just ripping over several months time period, people are not going to want to sell there. They're not going to want to sell at a loss in a bull market. And so people say, okay, hold on, I'm not going to pay next sell, I'm just going to wait it out for a second. And that allows the

Starting point is 00:21:10 market to some of the selling to subside market moves back off that band. Um, conversely, once you break below that people are now underwater in aggregate, you know, shorter term market participants, newer market, newer market participants, I should say are underwater. Uh, and so every time you have an underside retest of that, once those market participants are underwater, the kind of thinking now changes to, Oh, this thing isn't going up anymore. I want to get out. I just want to get my money out. I don't know why I bought this. I just bought it because it was going up. As soon as I get a chance to break even, I'm just going to GTFO, right? And so every time, as you can see, for example, in the end of 2018, we had four or five kind of

Starting point is 00:21:50 failed underside retests of this band, which is from a behavioral aspect showing you that every time the cost basis of these newer market participants is retested, they decide that, okay, I'm at breakeven or very close to it. I'm just going to jump ship and break even and get out of this uh ponzi scheme or you know i'm just making something up but you know the the sentiment there is that i just you know i just want to get out right because this thing just doesn't stop going down um and so like that's kind of why you see it serve as resistance once it's broken below and really strong support once it's broken above um and so like currently as you mentioned we broke below that um around 53k uh in the newsletter and i believe on this show as well and on my twitter

Starting point is 00:22:34 kind of turned cautious once we broke below 53k had that failed underside retest there at the end of december and since then have kind of failed to reclaim that um that currently sits around 46k so that's you know again an area that i'm watching to see you know are we starting to kind of reclaim some of that momentum yeah it's um man it just feels like uh uh it's pretty attractive and kind of a repeat of summer 2021. Joe, John, what questions you guys got? Hey, Will, what's going on, man? So Fred in the comments,

Starting point is 00:23:08 we're trying to crowdsource some questions over here and he just wants to know in your mind, what is the catalyst going forward? Like what can jumpstart Bitcoin's price again and what are you looking for? Yeah, sure. That's a good question. You know, I think the biggest catalyst

Starting point is 00:23:21 is always the one you're least expecting, right? Whenever there's a priorly known catalyst to the upper downside, that tends to get priced in beforehand, right? And whenever something happens that no one knows is coming, then that information has to get priced in in the moment. It has to get priced in real time. So a good example of this would be Tesla announcing they bought Bitcoin. I think on-chain, we saw some interesting stablecoin inflows in the days before. So I think there might've been some insider front running, but generally the market in aggregate didn't really

Starting point is 00:23:56 see that coming i think and so that's why we had like a 20 god candle on the day that tesla announced because the market was pricing in that information in real time um you know versus when you have kind of you know like sailor announcing he's he's gonna buy or you know uh just any kind of event that that you know is is known to the market beforehand it's gonna have less of an impact once it finally happens because the market's gonna you know price that in leading up to that um so that would be kind of the biggest catalyst i would say is the one that we have no ideas coming some of the obvious ones though uh for example the el salvador bond race right that's you know supposed to be about 500 million dollars of buy pressure coming into the into the market

Starting point is 00:24:36 and when bitcoin is relatively illiquid like this that can actually have a more substantial you know market impact another obvious one would be like a spot etf upside surprise i don't have any insight you got to get the uh the bloomberg guys on to to maybe talk about the likelihood of that i know you had like the valkyrie guy on last week or something he was i listened to that it was pretty good but um i don't have any insight into that but obviously that'd be a big upside surprise um and maybe just you know another kind of uh central american country adopting bitcoin or something of that sort um i mean again it could just be you know the kind of overall thing it's just we're kind of in this like murky storm of macro uncertainty, right?

Starting point is 00:25:19 And so like maybe it just has to be the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict sorting itself out and, you know, the Fed kind of finishing their hike cycle. And obviously if they walked back, you know, tightening expectations, that would be huge. I mean, there's a few different things, but again, overall, not to repeat myself several times, but I think the biggest thing would just be, you know, what you're least expecting, you know, and, you know, if something comes out that no one foresaw coming,

Starting point is 00:25:46 that information is going to have to, you know, get priced in in real time. Gotcha. Will, when you're thinking about realized price and kind of new people coming into the market and what we saw in 2018 where people begin to sell once they get to that, like, break-even point, thinking that Bitcoin has only been above this level, where it is at right now, for like 6% of the days,

Starting point is 00:26:06 do you expect to see the same thing if we get back to those levels, well, 50,000, 60,000, that people are going to, newer market participants go ahead and dump some coins and kind of break even you're saying if we if we reclaim that yeah if we re if we start um in a bull market and start going with price appreciation here and it reaches 50 60 000 do you expect new market participants to once they break even to jump ship i mean i think you'll always have some profit taking like in aggregate though their cost basis the newer market participants cost basis is at 46k um and And so like that's where that level of break and even like in aggregate is obviously like some is above, some is below.

Starting point is 00:26:48 That's kind of the aggregated number. But of course, I mean, if we get up to 50, 60K, some people will take profit. But, you know, it's all about, you know, it's the marginal buyer outweighing the marginal seller. And so kind of, you know, this metric paired with some other measures of momentum, you know, is a good way to look at, you know, once that momentum is reclaimed, you have market participants that are stepping in. basically like, you know, trend following market participants. So when you have like value market participants that are looking at, I don't know whether it's an on-chain metric or the number of days below moving average, or just general price structure, you know, there's different ways to kind of determine what's value for BTC. Maybe it's just like looking at order book

Starting point is 00:27:28 interest. So I think you have like those value market participants, and then you have momentum based market participants. And so my, I guess what I'm just trying to say here is that if we were to reclaim this, I think that you'll start to see a lot of those kind of momentum-based market participants step in, not solely because of this metric. I think from some of those behavioral dynamics that we talked about, you'll probably see a decrease in aggregated spending because those market participants are now back in profit. But, you know, there's also some other kind of confluence around 46, 47K price structure, the yearly open, a couple of different moving averages, some of those kinds of things. So, uh, I would kind of tend to tend to, you know,

Starting point is 00:28:11 my, my thesis here would be that if we started to reclaim 46, 47 K, uh, Doug kind of have some of those trend based trend following based, uh, you know, momentum market participants kind of step back in and, uh, continue to, to push this higher. Gotcha. It makes a lot of sense. Well, when you start to think about, uh, looking forward, is there still a belief that like the wall street folks uh who may be treating this like a risk asset versus the retail folks who treat it more as like a reserve asset does that framework still apply here and then also how do you think about some of the more macro stuff with you know interest rates russia ukraine having an impact on on those treating this as a risk asset sure yeah i mean i think first of all like on the

Starting point is 00:28:53 on the second question listen to guys like luke groman or like nick carter um i'm not gonna have anything more valuable than those guys so instead of like saying anything um maybe missing some of the important points i'll say like turn to those guys i'll tell you go listen to them um because those are kind of the people that i've been listening to in that regard lynn alden as well obviously she's always brilliant so listen to some of those folks as to like kind of some of those you know broader macro uh you know effects of kind of what's going on uh to the first question And, yeah, I think generally like a lot of Wall Street-esque folks are viewing Bitcoin as kind of a risk on assets still. But at the same time, I think recently with everything going on with Russia, Ukraine, I think, you know, Bitcoin's kind of some of the value proposition has started to shine through, especially once you saw like Russia's reserves get essentially frozen.

Starting point is 00:29:49 Right. And so I forget the guy's name. I don't want to botch it. I think it's like Zoltan from Credit Suisse. Yes, he had kind of wrote in his piece at the end, he was saying, you know, this, you know, in a few years or so, he's kind of saying in a longer term sense, this is probably good for Bitcoin, everything that's going on a kind of the, you know, the D dollarization, if you will, and then be just kind of the realization that, you know, you shouldn't be trusting any nation or any individual entity to like, you know, custody, anything, even gold, right? Like, you know, most of gold is kind of consolidated in one area, like even countries that like have gold as a reserve asset, because it's so expensive to move around, like a lot of it is just in one location. And so I think like some of these like, you know, events recently, especially with Russia, and some of the Canada stuff to like a lesser extent, but I think especially the stuff with Russia, it's kind of opened people's eyes to saying, you know, oh, well, you know, I understand like what the value prop is here. now. It's censorship resistant money. You can take anywhere in your brain. You know, for if you're a refugee, right, you don't have to like smuggle gold bars in your backpack. You could just memorize 12 words and take your wealth with you anywhere on the planet. And, you know, no one

Starting point is 00:30:59 can take it from you or seize it. And so I think, you know, some of these recent events have definitely started to highlight that to an extent. I think the biggest thing, though, is like when we're talking about Russia, you know, taking a Bitcoin position or something like that, you know i think it would be logical but what would a lot of bitcoiners i guess maybe kind of oversee and it's just the fact that bitcoin really isn't liquid enough right now excuse me um you know like we're just not big enough where you know some kind of like massive sovereign wealth fund or you know central bank could step in and take a bitcoin position bitcoin's just again not big enough for like an amazon or an apple like if they step in and take any even like a percent or two

Starting point is 00:31:43 percent position, they're going to like drive this thing up. Right. So it's going to take time just for us to kind of generate the liquidity for these market participants to kind of get in and out. But I definitely do think, though, there's been a lot of people that have probably looked at some of these current events and started to realize, albeit, you know, again, Canada to a lesser extent, but really this Russia-Ukraine stuff, you know, whether you agree with Russia or not, you know, the facts are that, you know, the United States can really lock anyone out of the financial system in a day or two, right? And that's kind of like a rude awakening for other nations around the world. And so, yeah, again, I think there's definitely some eyeballs in what's

Starting point is 00:32:26 going on here and people kind of realizing having that kind of light bulb moment, if you will, as to why, you know, we talk so much about why censorship-resistant money is so important. Awesome. When you think about the market right now, is there any metrics that you weren't looking at three months ago that now you're paying a lot more attention to? I know that you've got kind of a pretty thorough process, just given, you know, the day job, but also just your personal interest. But like, what is the metric or two when you wake up, you look at first outside of price or something that would be more elementary? Yeah, I mean, I think it really comes down to like, I say three or four things, depending on like, how we want to group them. Like, first of all, when I wake up, though, I'll just look at price, right? I mean, really, you can look at just scroll through your Twitter, you know, Twitter feed and gauge sentiment to see if price went up or down. Kind of like joking when I say that, but really, you know, I'm just check price, see where price is at real quick. if there's a, you know, really large moving price, you know, I'll kind of work backwards and say, okay, well, you know, Bitcoin absolutely dumped, you know, was there some type of bad news that came out? Was it just, you know, some massive leverage wiped out that maybe I had been watching out for over the last couple of days and kind of, you know, look to see if there's anything

Starting point is 00:33:42 interesting going on there. Then kind of just move to, you know, I have a couple of newsletters I'm subscribed to just go through kind of like general market news, just do a quick scroll through on cnbc see if there's anything substantial and market watch a couple of these different things and then twitter like twitter is honestly my main you know uh source of information if you will have like you know several i'm a very like not to sound snobby i'm just like very selective with who i follow because i like to like go through twitter and basically have it as kind of like a bloomberg terminal of sorts where i have different people i follow for different specific things um and then you know i can go through and see all the different bits of

Starting point is 00:34:20 information that i find valuable from different people that i find insightful um and then so like i'll say price um and then you know macro slash news the other thing is obviously derivatives so i'll use like a coin allies i use class note a little bit and then i'll go through and kind of look at you know what's going on with open interest uh what's going on with funding um you know spot premiums discounts um you know anything crazy happened with quarterlies overnight i'll go in and look at order books see if any you know crazy bids are asked stepped in and what's going on across the different exchanges there and then lastly i'll go through and look at you know what's going on from an on-chain perspective but you know obviously not a whole lot from an on-chain

Starting point is 00:35:04 perspective because by definition like we're looking at kind of these broader trends not a whole lot really changes day to day you only really need to check on chain like once a day uh because the data updates at 8 30 uh est for me because i'm on the east coast um but it updates at the same time every day so you know i'll just sit there on my computer as soon as it uploads we're like all right go through check everything see if anything really changed for the day um generally the main stuff that's going to change if it will is just like you know exchange balances obviously like a liquid supply uh you know the the size of different cohorts supply uh some of those kinds of things but generally like you know when we're talking

Starting point is 00:35:46 about like these like broader oscillators or you know some of these kind of metrics that are trying to give you you know an edge over like a several month basis not a whole lot's really gonna you know kind of change day to day but the derivatives obviously and then and then the news uh those those are kind of the two the two things uh you can throw order books in there too but you know those are the two things that are really kind of like changing constantly throughout the day i would say the other thing too is like get in a couple really good you know group chats because you know i'm like 50 iq so i got to be in all these group chats with all these gigabrains to help me kind of get up to speed right um and so i'm in like several different uh you know group

Starting point is 00:36:27 chats with traders or fund managers etc uh that you know i kind of just sit back i try to you know add some value not just lurk in there but you know really i'm kind of in there paying attention asking questions to, to other people smarter than me. So I would say like, try to form a group of people that, um, you think are, you know, are smart and ideally smarter than you. Um, and you know, are, are, you know, as excited about the market as yourself, and then just kind of, you know, build off each other. I'm like, I'm very big on the, uh, the whole, like Stephen Covey, the, the, you know, uh, I'm going to completely botch this, but like the, the, the output is bigger than the sum of the parts, right? Like if you add, you know, one plus one plus one,

Starting point is 00:37:08 it equals five, right? Because you're combining each, you know, individual's, you know, skill set together. And when you have that kind of synergy between those different parts, especially if you have like, you know, several people in a telegram or discord chat that all specialize in something different, where you bring that together and like the kind of aggregated output of the, you know, insight you're going to have into the market is much stronger than any of you are going to be able to have you know individually so those are some of the the things i would say but you know again the uh the the group chats and just talking to smart people has really been the biggest thing for me um podcasts obviously and i keep adding new stuff but podcasts are in there

Starting point is 00:37:48 too but yeah again like talking to talking to smart people is like really the biggest thing man and like just asking questions you'd be surprised how many people are like open-minded I know it's easy for me to say that because I, you know, I have a decent size following, but like, you know, really, even when I had like, you know, two or 3000 followers, I'd reach out to all kinds of people and just be like, Hey, what do you think of this? Maybe you get ghosted like eight out of 10 times, but you know, two out of 10 times is better than zero. So, you know, just keep asking questions and just stay hungry. I think that that is the key to all of this is the learning is never done. You must pick up the, uh, pick up the work every day and keep pushing it forward, which I wish you'd do a great job of. How are we looking on, uh, on followers? Let's see.

Starting point is 00:38:34 It's been slowing down, man. Cause you're almost at 600. Yeah, we're getting there. But I think, you know, with, again, as some of the stuff we talked about earlier, like I think people are just kind of MIA, people are bored of the market and they're just, they're tired of you know keeping up with everything every day and just they're taking a break and going to the beach so it's all right all right buddy well we'll see you uh next week and then also uh bitcoin conference in person let's go let's go all right all right later buddy

Starting point is 00:39:03 all right see you thanks thanks so much for listening to today's episode i really hope you guys enjoyed this one make sure you're subscribed on apple spotify or your favorite podcast player and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the bitcoin or crypto industry we've got you covered head over to palmscryptocourse.com we've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry it's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more and i'll meet you guys for the next episode

The Pomp Podcast - #872 Bitcoin Price Is Primed To Take Off w/ Will Clemente

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