The Pomp Podcast - #891 There Is Not Enough Bitcoin Available In The Market

Episode Date: March 30, 2022

This episode is a little different than the usual podcast format. There is no guest. Instead, I will share a couple of thoughts I have around a specific topic. Today I discuss Bitcoin's increasing illiquid supply and provide charts that show how much Bitcoin has not moved in the past year. ======================= Bitcoin 2022 is the LARGEST Bitcoin event in the world that takes place April 6th - 9th in Miami Beach, Florida. All four days will be jammed-packed with exclusive content, exciting announcements and an incredible lineup of bitcoin speakers, artists and leaders. Day 1 is INDUSTRY DAY for enterprising bitcoiners who are looking to build a business or career within the ecosystem. Days 2 and 3 are general conference days featuring speakers like El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, CEOs like Michael Saylor, Elizabeth Stark, Jack Mallers, Adam Back and hundreds more.  The conference caps off on the fourth day with the world's first and largest Bitcoin Music Festival - Sound Money Fest headlined by rapper and fellow bitcoiner Logic, featuring artists K.Flay, MØ, Royal & the Serpent, Apashe, Asadi and more. Stay tuned for the upcoming lineup announcement! Last year’s conference SOLD OUT and this year’s is on pace to be 3x larger so make sure you grab your tickets before it's too late.  Visit http://b.tc/conference to learn more. Ticket prices increase on JAN 14th, use promo code POMP for 10% off and I will see you in Miami!ire ecosystem bringing utility to #NFTs. ======================= Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 crypto browser. No extension required. Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support, and more.  Download the Brave privacy browser at brave.com/Pomp, and click the wallet icon to get started. =======================

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Today's episode takes a look at the current market structure of the Bitcoin ecosystem. It uses 2020-2021's bull market as a guide for what could happen here in the future. I really enjoyed putting together this episode, and I hope that you enjoyed as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.US is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors. There are

no fixed minimum fees, no ACH transaction fees, and no withdrawal fees either. FTX.US is also the only leading exchange that supports both Ethereum and Solana NFTs. Download the FTX app today and use referral code POMP to earn these free crypto on every trade over $10. The more you trade, the more you earn. Go download the FTX app today and use referral code POMP. Today's episode is brought to you by Brave. Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a Web3 crypto browser. What's Web3? Web3 is freedom from big tech and Wall Street, more control and better privacy. But there's a weak point in Web3, your crypto wallet. Most wallets are browser extensions, a Web2 technology.

That means the same old risks, app spoofing, phishing scams, and theft. BraveWallet is different. BraveWallet is the first secure wallet built natively in a Web3 crypto browser. No extension required. With BraveWallet, you can buy, store, send, and swap assets, manage NFTs, even connect other wallets and dApps, all from the security of the best privacy browser on the market. Whether you're new to crypto or a seasoned pro, it's time to ditch those risky extensions. It's time to switch to Brave Wallet. Download Brave at brave.com slash Pomp and click the Wallet icon to get started. Again, go download Brave at brave.com slash Pomp and click the

Wallet icon to get started. Today's episode is sponsored by the Bitcoin 2022 Conference. Bitcoin 2022 is the largest Bitcoin event in the world that takes place April 6th through the 9th in Miami Beach, Florida. All four days will be jam-packed with exclusive content, exciting announcements and an incredible lineup of Bitcoin speakers, artists, and leaders. Day one is industry day for enterprising Bitcoiners who are looking to build a business or career within the ecosystem. Days two and three are general conference days featuring speakers like El Salvador president Nayib Bukele, CEOs like Michael Saylor, Elizabeth Stark, Jack Maulers, Adam Back, and hundreds more. The conference caps off on the fourth day with the world's first and largest

Bitcoin music festival, Sound Money Fest, headlined by rapper and fellow Bitcoiner Logic, featuring artists K-Flay, Moe, Royal, and The Serpent, Apache, Asadi, and more. Stay tuned for the upcoming lineup announcement. Last year's conference sold out and this year's is on pace to be three times larger. So make sure you grab your tickets before it's too late. Visit b.tc slash conference to learn more.

Again, that's b.tc slash conference to learn more. Ticket prices increase on January 14th. Use promo code POMP for 10% off and I will see you in Miami. All right, let's get in this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect

the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Good morning, everyone. Bang, bang. It is usually very difficult to predict why and when Bitcoin's price may move up or down.

With the benefit of hindsight, this analysis becomes much easier. A great example is the Bitcoin move from $10,000 to $64,000 during September 2020 into March of 2021. We were in the heart of the pandemic, and the central bank was engaged in historic levels of monetary stimulus. In May of 2020, we also had experience the Bitcoin halving, which brought the daily incoming supply to 900 Bitcoin. This set the stage for what would become one of the most epic run-ups in Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin halving created a supply shock, but a lesser-known fact is that we saw a demand shock in Q3 and Q4 of 2020. First, Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy started to buy billions of dollars of Bitcoin.

At the same time, hedge funds and family offices were piling billions of dollars into the GBTC arbitrage trade. This was noteworthy because MicroStrategy was exclusively a buyer in the market. They have no intentions of ever selling their Bitcoin. GBTC is similar in that they have no redemption functionality, which means that they can only buy and there is no ability for the approximately 3% of circulating supply held within their fund to be returned to the market. While these demand shocks were playing out, Bitcoin holders were making the Bitcoin supply highly illiquid. Nearly 65% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin as of

September 2020 hadn't moved in over a year. Supply shock plus demand shock means that the Bitcoin price had to go up to accommodate everyone. This is exactly why Bitcoin rose from approximately $10,000 to $64,000 from September to March of 2021. So what exactly does this have to do with the current Bitcoin market? Well, it appears we are watching the same situation play out again. Bitcoin's illiquid supply is actually the highest it has ever been. Dylan Leclerc pointed out that Bitcoin trading at $48,000 and throughout its entire history, there's only been one other time that the percentage of supply that hadn't moved in over a year was at this level, which was September of 2020. The amount of Bitcoin sitting on crypto exchanges, which could be sold into the

market at a moment's notice, is also sitting at a multi-year low. Patrick Hansen pointed out that the Bitcoin balance on those exchanges hit that multi-year low, which was last seen in November of 2018, about three and a half years ago. As these markets are becoming more illiquid, there is a significant increase in demand happening at the same time. Most notably, the Terra ecosystem is purchasing billions of dollars of Bitcoin to put in the reserves of their UST stablecoin. When you have an illiquid market meeting a persistent bid of approximately $125 million in daily demand, the price has to move upwards to accommodate everyone. To put this in perspective, Terra is purchasing approximately 300% of the daily incoming supply

of Bitcoin issuance. The Bitcoin miners are currently being paid about $43 million a day to secure the network via the block reward. Terra is purchasing $125 million a day or so. Quite literally, there just isn't enough Bitcoin available to satisfy demand, and therefore the price is rising at a steady pace. History is not a perfect guide for the future, but the bull run of 2020 to 2021 is indicative of what can happen when the demand shock overwhelms the available amount of Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention to market dynamics, now would be a good time to start watching closely. Hope each of you has a great day

and I'll talk to everyone tomorrow. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered.

Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.