The Pomp Podcast - #896 Bitcoin Poised To Go Higher As Recession Looms - BTC On-Chain Analytics

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together we try our best to go through the on-chain metrics and explain what the hell is happening with bitcoin and why has the price been falling i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously I'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as Will, but I'm doing my best to keep up. So before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to

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Starting point is 00:03:09 Go check it out and see what all the hype is about. All right, let's get in this episode. I hope you guys enjoyed this one. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. There's all

Starting point is 00:03:39 kind of chaos and uncertainty across global markets, but Bitcoin's price has been grinding up higher and higher. So let's take a look at what's been going on this past week. First, if we look at the Bitcoin market, you can see that we're trading around $46,500. That's outperforming most other assets over the past week. If we then take a look at the Bitcoin network itself, what we can see is that the Bitcoin market cap is just under $900 billion. Now about 90% of the supply has been issued and the 19th million Bitcoin has now officially been put into circulation. the real exchange volume is 1.98 billion dollars and miners were paid 42 and a half million dollars over the last 24 hours to continue to secure bitcoin the most secure computing network in

Starting point is 00:04:23 the world bitcoin is also trading at 40 percent up from the cycle low but bitcoin has only ever been 210 days higher than the current price point so for over 95 percent of bitcoin's life it was at a lower price point this is important because if you continue to dollar cost average your probably in a pretty good position. If we then take a look at the compound annual growth rate, what we can see is that Bitcoin's 10-year compound annual growth rate is 150%. That is destroying anything, including the S&P, which is only 12.4%, or the NASDAQ at 16.6%. Bitcoin continues to compound at an incredible pace, and it doesn't have any signs of slowing down anytime soon. Now, if we take a look at on-chain metrics, we'll go to Will Clemente and the Blockware team. They

Starting point is 00:05:08 put together some great charts this week on it first we see the short-term holder realized price we're just above it but according to will we're gonna have to see another day or two of closing above this level that short-term holder realized price it's important to trade above it we're there now but let's see if it holds then if we go ahead and we take a look at the next chart what we can see is that the luna bitcoin holdings now as a reminder luna has the ust which is a stablecoin they're backing it with bitcoin and you can see here in this green line that they continue to stack more and more Bitcoin. They have $3 billion in reserves they're going to convert into Bitcoin with a goal of eventually reaching $10 billion in Bitcoin. Anytime that you have a persistent

Starting point is 00:05:47 buyer in the billions of dollars coming into the market, of course, the price is going to be positively impacted. And what you can see is pretty much as soon as they started to buy, that price started to skyrocket upwards. If we then take a look at the Bitcoin balance on exchanges, what we can see is this green line falling off a cliff since early March. That shows that people who have bought bitcoin or were holding it on those exchanges are taking it off into self-custody that shows that people who had bitcoin on exchanges who had recently bought it they actually are moving it now taking it off that exchange into self-custody or cold storage that's a great sign for bitcoin bulls because what it means is that there's less bitcoin on

Starting point is 00:06:24 the exchange that simply in a couple of clicks could be sold into the market less sell pressure on the market obviously means that the price is likely to be bullish if we then go ahead and we take a look at the ot desk if we then go ahead and we take a look at the otc desk holdings as well we can see that they have fallen off a cliff as well this is just another signal showing that there is low sell pressure meaning that the bulls are in control their price continues to grind upwards and every single data point we have shows that it's likely to continue and then last but not least if we take a look at that illiquid supply shock ratio we can see that that is ticked up aggressively in the last week, that green line climbing towards the moon. What this tells us

Starting point is 00:07:07 is that more and more and more people are holding Bitcoin. They're not willing to sell it. Over 70% of Bitcoin has not been sold in the last year that's in circulation. That's a big deal because when you have a persistent buyer like Luna or even MicroStrategy with their brand new $205 million loan that they took from Silvergate against their Bitcoin collateral, that's hundreds of millions or billions of dollars pouring into a market that's highly illiquid. That usually spells for a bullish outlook. Then lastly, if we shift to the macro environment, we can see Dylan Leclerc pointing out that officially the 10 and two-year yield curves have officially inverted. Once you get this inversion historically, it signals that there is a recession that is

Starting point is 00:07:49 looming. Now that recession doesn't usually happen right away. It can take anywhere from six to 18 months to actually go ahead and play out. In some cases, that happens on the shorter end. On other cases, it happens over a longer period of time. But anytime you get a yield curve inversion, you have to start asking yourself, where's the recession going to come from? When is it going to happen? Ultimately, this yield curve inversion tells us one thing. People are going to be seeking safety. And regardless of whether Wall Street treats Bitcoin as a risk asset or not. The everyday average person, they treat Bitcoin as the reserve asset. They continue to dollar cost average. We have an illiquid market. There's plenty of persistent buyers.

Starting point is 00:08:31 The price is grinding up. And even with a recession potentially looming six to 18 months away, Bitcoin looks not only healthy, but it looks like we're poised for a move higher. I hope that you enjoy these breakdowns every single week. Next week, I'll be back with Will Clemente from Blockware. If you don't, go follow him on Twitter, go follow Dylan, and we'll be back next Saturday. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player.

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The Pomp Podcast - #896 Bitcoin Poised To Go Higher As Recession Looms - BTC On-Chain Analytics

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