The Pomp Podcast - #913 Dylan LeClair Explains The Financial Repression Occurring Right Now

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan LeClaire is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management. He also writes a newsletter with Bitcoin Magazine. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, on-chain metrics, we talk about Bitcoin's price, the market structure, and what to expect in the coming weeks. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.US is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can

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Starting point is 00:03:29 purposes only. Dylan, how we doing, man? What's up, guys? Fun week last week. Great week last week. You're home now? Yeah. Back in the saddle in Vermont. All right. Let's talk about some of the interesting stuff when it comes to the data that we saw this morning, inflation numbers, 8.5%. What is your general thoughts takes on the numbers that we're seeing today? I mean, uh, 8.5% seems pretty cheap, you know, if we're comparing it to Miami and $25 drinks in the club, I mean, come on. Uh, so I saw you guys down there. That was a fun time. Um, I mean, yeah, it was two waters were $20. I got two waters, these little Fiji things that live two of them, $20, $10 each. I was like, you're out of your damn mind. But then I bought two more.

Starting point is 00:04:16 Yeah, that's, that's how they get you. I mean, I think honestly, CPI is understating that you guys have been saying that for a while. I've been saying that for a while. These are the government statistics, but still, I mean, it's accelerating. Um, a lot of people, the same people that have been calling for, you know, a top in the, you know, accelerating inflation month over month numbers, uh, this time around, I've been saying that the last six months or so, it'll be interesting to see if we get somewhat of a kind of a crush of demand as some of these things continue to soar like energy. Obviously, some stuff like food is, you know, demand is inelastic, and people just need it to survive. So you're seeing a lot of really kind of crazy

Starting point is 00:04:54 stuff happen with, say, wheat and agriculture around the world. That's really interesting to keep an eye on. But I mean, in terms of just real yields and deeply negative state of basically every yield in the entire global bond market, that's accelerating. And that's the biggest story in finance today. And what percentage of this do you think, if any, has to do with what's happening in Russia and Ukraine when it comes to an inflation perspective? We've seen the White House has said that a lot of this has to do with Russia and Putin and all of the sanctions and whatnot that have been placed on him. Do you think that we're seeing that in the data yet? Or do you think that's to come in the following months? Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a role. But I think

Starting point is 00:05:31 Just to call it Putin's price hike and completely ignore the fact that you had politically enforced lockdowns of the global economy, printed a bunch of money, destroyed supply chains, and then said, okay, yeah, like, you know, this inflation is Putin's fault. It's, you know, somewhat gaslighting and straight propaganda. And anyone that kind of believes that is, I don't even know what to say there. You're searching for the name. I can see your head spinning and steam coming out of it. But we get what you're trying to say. So you sent us a bunch of charts, which we appreciate. So let's maybe start with the 10-year versus the 10-year treasury yield, year-over-year versus USCPI.

Starting point is 00:06:12 What are you seeing there? Yeah, so I put out a tweet about like an hour ago and said this is the most important chart in finance, kind of what I'm referring to when I'm talking about the state of real yields. US treasury market is basically that risk-free rate for the global economy. And it's essentially what every asset in the world is valued off of. The story of 2022 has been in the bond market specifically, especially on the short end, has been just the drastic rise in yields due to this inflationary environment, right? Every fixed income holder realizes that they're sitting in contracts guaranteed to lose money, so they sell it off. The value of those bonds goes down. The yields go up.

Starting point is 00:06:51 What you're seeing in credit markets and really every single equity is everything else. Every asset market is basically duration, which is basically how these assets are priced. You can think of duration as the lower yields are, the lower that discount rate is, the more that these assets will be priced off of high multiples. So when those yields rise, it's basically that duration of the asset goes down and the value of it goes down as well. So that's what we're seeing. And that's basically why you're seeing every single asset kind of trade in tandem, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ, everything else. We have graphics of that, because it's all about the USD denominator at the moment. This is basically, you know, reflecting the liquidity tide. So as that chart starts to compress at some point, right, if they raise interest rates and inflation starts to fall on a year over year level, what impact does that have on the market from whether you want to talk about risk assets or whatever, just generally, what impact does that have? Yeah, I think the story is, even if it somewhat compresses, I really think the story is that the 40-year real yield bond bull market basically was shot behind the shed in 2020, 2021, maybe 2022, if you want to call it that. But I really think it happened post-COVID, where you could just sit in treasuries, you could sit in bonds, and you could basically just ride this wave of ever lower yields.

Starting point is 00:08:15 And a lot of things, demographics, debt, and globalization, let these kind of inflation levels never see anything higher than 4% or 5% since the 80s. And so this was just basically a very, very good environment for financial assets. And for, you know, specifically because of our world reserve currency status, the US. And so if we're seeing that trend shift, which a lot of people like this is a very big picture idea, but a lot of people are, there's pretty big implications for that. And I think the biggest, the biggest losers of all of this are the creditors, the bondholders, the people that own these debt securities. Gotcha. And one of the other charts that you sent over was the U.S. 10-year secular trend that you had mapped out here. What are you seeing in this chart? Yeah, same idea. We don't have the CPI numbers here, but essentially this, you know, I think Raoul Pal calls it the chart of truth. A lot of people kind of follow this. And this is mapping out a lot of things, but debt and demographics being the biggest. And what's not shown here is that with every kind of boom and bust cycle, with every credit cycle that we've seen, about eight to 10 years, give or take, we come out on the other side with far more debt at the federal level, at the household level, at the corporate level. Aggregate debt to GDP globally, and this is somewhat of an estimate, is around 400%. So we just can't handle higher yields, even if it's deeply negative in real terms, adjusted after inflation. in nominal terms, the financial system breaks at a certain point, whether that level is three,

Starting point is 00:09:45 three and a half, four, uh, we don't know. And we'll see what we get to, but there's going to be a breaking point in the bond market, uh, as these yields soar, just because of how over indebted the global economy is like, this is, this is the macro picture right now. And when you say the financial markets or the global economy just breaks, right. At some point, I assume you're talking to some degree about the bond market, which you mentioned, but what is the, what is the outcome for like the average retail investor in this scenario? Yeah, so essentially, when you talk about the system breaking, what you have in this monetary system, this economic system, and why you kind of see these financial crises occur, right? In 2008, yeah, subprime mortgages are bad, but why did it tank the global economy? It's essentially because you have fiat denominated assets and liabilities. And during bubbles, and during kind of credit expansions, you see the asset liability mismatch. Everybody borrows, invests in assets, and the asset side of their balance sheet goes up. And it's kind of self-reinforcing.

Starting point is 00:10:40 Everyone feels richer. You reinvest. Assets continue to go up and take on more debt. But when that trend reverses and all of a sudden you have more liabilities than ever, and because of rising yields, because of inflation, because of just, say, a global pandemic, that tanks productivity, what happens? Well, the earning side of your balance sheet goes down. One person's earnings or one person's spending is another person's income, and it's reinforcing

Starting point is 00:11:03 on the downside. And all of a sudden now you have a huge asset liability mismatch on the bad side. And so what happens is, well, you have an asset liability mismatch. You sell what you can to pay down your liabilities. And it's just a cascading event where everything kind of the house of cards falls down. And so we're not there yet. I mean, I'm not calling for the end of the world, but this is why these credit expansion and credit contractions, this is how they work.

Starting point is 00:11:27 Fiat money is destroyed through debt default or repayment. And so when you have kind of these mass default events, these mass insolvencies, right now we're kind of in the liquidity risk environment. What that eventually leads to, if central banks and governments don't kind of step in and help, you know, remonetize a lot of this debt and inflate people's balance sheets is what happens is that that liquidity risk turns into solvency risk. And that's when kind of it turns into actually systematic risk for the fiat itself. Gotcha. And one of the other charts that you have, which we touched on a little bit earlier, but I want to go in a little more detail, is the CPI, right? So year over year and month over month and kind of how much it's accelerating. Just talk me through your general thoughts on, obviously, we've seen the highest monthly total that we've seen in a long time this past month at 1.24%.

Starting point is 00:12:14 Now we're at 8.56% on a year over year basis. But just talk me through kind of what you're seeing. Yeah, I think one of the most fascinating things, and shout out to my partner at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, chart wizard Sam Rule, at Sam J Rule on Twitter, he put up this chart. The most interesting thing for me is the accelerating trend in the monthly, the month over month readings. So, you know, we see that obviously the year over year, but the month over month acceleration continues, right? I think it was 1.1%. If I'm reading that correctly, it's pretty small on my screen right now. but we'll be you know kind of interesting to see that derivative of inflation whether that's accelerating or decelerating and everything now these month over month readings just continue to accelerate and we're obviously getting to a point now where if you look at on a year-over-year basis it's going to start uh decelerating to a point right because you can't compound at nine eight eight nine ten percent year-over-year given where we started last year uh i believe may or maybe it was a month or in and around there was the first month that we saw kind of this elevated inflation

Starting point is 00:13:12 Do you think this changes the narrative or do you think that it's still kind of consistent what we're going to see if we see a higher number, maybe five, six, seven percent, that it's still extremely bad and people should be worried? Yeah, I think the most important thing to understand is that, you know, even when Powell was calling for transitory inflation, he was calling for that in the derivative of inflation, not actually the price levels themselves. He's saying the rate of change is going to be transitory and how high it is, but we're not going to actually see price levels meaningfully drop. Deflation literally can't be allowed to occur in this monetary system. And so, yeah, we may see a transitory level of the rate of change and how high it is. But in terms of just the price levels themselves, this is the new normal for better or worse. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:13:59 So in simple terms, Chipotle may say a burrito is 25 cents more expensive last year. maybe this year it's 10%, but it's not going down a dollar. It's not, uh, it's not ever getting those, those price increases back. Um, so talk to me about us corporate bond spreads and what you're seeing there. Yeah. So we talked about the duration aspect of credit, uh, about, about these bond markets, right? Yields are going up in the treasury market. And so what we're seeing is, is every, basically all these debt securities are also selling off, right? If you just look at, uh, JNK, HYG, these are like junk bond indices. Um, they're just like ETFs that you can trade on, on Robinhood or anywhere else. They've been absolutely tanking recently. And that's mostly,

Starting point is 00:14:38 that's mostly due to the duration risk, those, those yields rising, right? So it's kind of like that discount rate is rising. And so those bonds are selling off. The most interesting thing is we haven't really seen the credit side of things. So, and this has to do with basically the corporate credit, right? Like you have a credit rating, I have a credit rating, so do corporates, right? And, and it's based off their earnings, their balance sheet, et cetera. And so what we haven't seen, we started to see it, it really start to rise, but it's somewhat fallen off in the past couple of weeks is the credit risk of these corporates. And if we start to see this high inflation meaningfully slow down the economy due to consumers not being able to spend much

Starting point is 00:15:12 or just supply chain issues of the like, we might see this credit risk really start to pick up. And that's where we go from, like we talked about earlier, the liquidity risk, higher yields, and this over-indebted economy starts to slow things down a little bit to the credit risk, where we really start to see the stock market, I think it's what, 10%, 15% off the high, something like that. This is the chart to watch if you want to look at credit spreads. This is kind of that US corporate risk, and this would really have a huge effect on the stock market. Yeah, especially if people are predicting a recession at this point, that chart could change pretty quickly. So let's talk about correlation to broader risk assets for Bitcoin. I know we've

Starting point is 00:15:52 talked about this a lot in the past, but you had an interesting chart that compares Bitcoin's price to the NASDAQ and the correlation that we're seeing there. Just talk me through your general thoughts. Yep. So, you know, we have two classes of Bitcoin allocators, maybe, maybe more, but really it's, you have the hodlers, you have the stackers, you have the people that treat it as money as a unit of account. And the big money, especially the money that's came in over the past couple of years, treats it like for better or worse, a beta risk asset, right? So it's over the last four weeks, it's trading at a 0.92% correlation to the NASDAQ, essentially one-to-one. It's as close as you'll probably get. And essentially what this is showing is that,

Starting point is 00:16:32 and I tweeted this out a little bit, it's the people that are, you know, the Bitcoin with the numerator, all the stuff you're looking at in Miami, all these news developments, the tech, it's getting better and better. You have more people stacking and more people hodling. But And really what it's about right now over the past quarter, over 2022, really since November, December, is that the denominator USD, even though it's inflating against real goods and services, against risk assets, against assets themselves, the USD denominators spend somewhat bidding, right? It's like we're in the midst of this credit contraction and how bad it gets, we have to wait and see. But that's really the story here is that the denominator of USD, whether you want to look at it against other fiat or just risk asset conditions tightening in general, financial conditions are what's driving this. And that's why these assets have such a tight correlation. Eventually, it breaks due to the absolute scarcity and the supply and elasticity of Bitcoin and the fact that it is a monetary asset and not a tech stock.

Starting point is 00:17:31 But I would think, and kind of my analysis shows that this correlation is likely to kind of persist for the time being. Yeah. And what do you think from, I guess, more of a philosophical perspective of like Bitcoin was obviously pitched, and I think most people believed it was this uncorrelated asset to a degree, right? Not only equities, but broader financial markets, and it was used as a hedge to inflation. A lot of people have been taking victory laps and saying that with the correlation to equities and the broader stock market with kind of the risk off over the last few weeks or months or whatever, that that's not the case. What are your just general thoughts on kind of how people should think about that in more of a 30,000 foot view?

Starting point is 00:18:12 Yeah. So, I mean, I still believe it is somewhat of an uncorrelated asset. Anthony would roll out in the bottom of the 2018-19 bear market when it's down 85% and say, hey, it's an uncorrelated asset. it's the best performing asset, you need some in your portfolio, it's going to outperform over the long term. And he was dead on. And I still think that's completely correct. Really, though, if you want to think about it as an inflation hedge, it somewhat, you know, front ran the inflation of 2021 and 2022, in the sense that you had a lot of people and some like, you know, of the traditional

Starting point is 00:18:45 economists are saying it's a chart crime. But if you compared like, Bitcoin to the M2, right, and And M2, you know, post-COVID QE and the trillions of dollars of the Fed balance sheet that they expanded, Bitcoin went from, you know, I mean, the lows was $4,000, but it went from around $9,000 to where it was hovering around to $50,000 in a few months, right? So it's almost like the Bitcoin kind of monetization front ran all of that stimulus and all of that money that was stuffed into the fixed income markets. And now it's just kind of consolidating around and being reaccumulated by convicted hodlers and stackers, while all the derivative stuff, all the stuff that really caused a blow

Starting point is 00:19:24 off top, and there was this huge volatility moves in the spring of 2021, all of that's been wiped out. So you're just seeing this reaccumulation. And I still think in the most pure form, it is an inflation hedge, but maybe not inflation hedge for CPI, but rather just an opt out of the system entirely. And that's a pretty big idea that most people are still reluctant to accept. Yeah, yeah, I tend to agree with that. I think when you look at it, kind of most people just look at the instant reaction, you know, how Bitcoin did three minutes after the inflation print comes out. And if it doesn't turn positive, then they start to tell us on inflation hedge. But when you think about it in context, we're at 5000 $10,000 of Bitcoin, when the pandemic started, right, and we're sitting here today at $40,000 of Bitcoin. So whether you want to say it front ran it or reacted to it, like, it's hard to argue that it wasn't an inflation hedge in some degree, right. And generally, risk assets have appreciated, but Bitcoin is outperformed to it. agree for sure. All right. So let's talk about, you have two more charts here. One of them is the inverse Bitcoin futures, and then you have the VIX underneath it. Talk to me about what you're seeing here. Yeah. So the VIX, it's a volatility index for S&P 500. Really, it's just kind of one

Starting point is 00:20:30 of these risk parameters for tightening financial conditions, fear in the legacy system. The higher the VIX goes, it's likely the more bloody that the equity markets are. And that kind of COVID shock it i think it touched above 80 right and so if you're just looking at the 2022 chart uh bitcoin futures i just do this because uh it's trading during the same hours as uh the vix futures i'm using the cme data but essentially the inverse uh btc and the vix chart looks somewhat identical and that's just you know i guess it's similar to the chart i showed with a correlation to the nasdaq it's just being traded as i heard someone refer to it as a 24-7 inverse VIX, right? And it's just a risk parameter for the legacy financial system.

Starting point is 00:21:16 And honestly, I think it's one of the most, like the best fire alarms for, like maybe check on central bank irresponsibility, right? So the kind of actions that will come on the other side of this probably ensuing crisis will be more of the same. It'll be more stimulus. It'll be more financial repression. It'll be more volatility suppression by central banks. Thus, we can expect the VIX, when we see these high periods of volatility, we kind of squash down. In that sense, Bitcoin is probably going to run really, really hard. That's my base case. And so I think what people are using it as is just a check on central banks. Let's go, okay, you're going to tighten. Well, Bitcoin's going to sell off because it's a free market. It's 24-7, 365 liquid in every

Starting point is 00:21:57 jurisdiction in the world. Oh, you're going to walk back that tightening and you're going to start quantitative easing again. And I'm not talking about tomorrow or next week, but maybe quarters or a year or so down the line, okay, well, Bitcoin is going to react and it's going to be the opt out of this crazy system. And so I think that correlation is really, really interesting and it's something to watch going forward. Gotcha. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. So the last chart you have is the Z-score chart where you're looking at the market value to realize value. Just talk me through what you're seeing here. Yep. So I thought I'd include one kind of Bitcoin specific chart. A lot of people are getting on me about covering bonds so much

Starting point is 00:22:34 kind of the legacy system. And I guess the reason for that before I break into that chart is if you want to understand why Bitcoin's trading as it is, look at the equity markets. If you want to look at why the equity markets are trading as they are, look at the credit markets. And so that's what I would say and just why I've been so macro specific in my analysis. But to kind of get back to the Bitcoin chart and what this is, a Z-score for those that are unaware, it's just a standard deviation measure. So a Z-score of one is one standard deviation above the mean. And so what this market value to realized value metric is. Essentially, that realized value, realized market cap is just basically the aggregate cost basis. So the aggregate market cap of every coin when

Starting point is 00:23:13 it was last moved. And so if you look at the market value or the price of Bitcoin relative to that, you get a really interesting view of the Bitcoin cycles and how cheap or kind of expensive Bitcoin is relative to that average cost of its users. And so if we just kind of put a Z-score on this and look at its trend throughout history, we get a really interesting look at Bitcoin's kind of like monetization bubbles, as I call them. So right now, Bitcoin isn't fire sale, absolutely generational bottom level expensive or level cheap. But at the same time, it's extremely far away from being overvalued, overexpensive cycle top type levels. And obviously, you can just tell that by being 40% off the highs. But I think this is just a really, really great way to

Starting point is 00:23:54 kind of quantify how cheap or expensive Bitcoin is. And from the looks of it, it's a fantastic time to accumulate. I like it. I appreciate it, man. John, you got any questions? Yeah, Dylan, I got one question on, I'm just looking for a little education myself here is I saw that yesterday, 146 million long positions were liquidated in the Bitcoin market, helping to drive the price down. Is that a lot? Like, is that something to be expected? Like, can you just talk about that for a little bit? Yeah. So I think off the top of my head, the Bitcoin futures market's around $15 billion of positions. And so for every long, there's a short, there's never, never more longs, never more shorts, but it's really about the positioning of those longs or shorts relative

Starting point is 00:24:34 to that spot price. That's what determines the pain points. That's what determines the force buying and selling. And really, whenever you see Bitcoin trade explosively up or down, it's because of these derivative dislocations. So right now, derivatives relative to spot markets have been very, very defensive for much of 2022. We're not seeing the massive levels of the long speculation that characterized the market in 2021. So that's a really positive sign for bulls. That leverage is there, but it's positioned somewhat evenly relative to the spot market. So I don't think, and not to mention that a lot of this leverage is collateralized with stable coins, where in 2021, people were collateralizing it with Bitcoin itself. So as

Starting point is 00:25:17 price goes down, your collateral value falls, which leads to poor selling. So $150 million, It's not nothing, but it's more just kind of Bitcoin doing its thing, chopping around. That volatility is kind of an expression of, you know, causing these over leveraged, irresponsible positions. It's just forced liquidations and it's nothing but a thing. So, you know, derivatives over the long term really don't mean all that much for the trajectory. It's just more, you know, that short term volatility is kind of expressed through the forced buying and selling of those positions. Gotcha. So, Dylan, we got one more chart for you. uh, it's actually just a picture of Bitcoin Magazine Pro and we should, uh, tell people

Starting point is 00:25:57 to go subscribe because you do a fantastic job. Uh, and so does the whole team that you work with at Bitcoin Magazine. You guys are putting together a lot of, of research and work into this stuff and it's educating a lot of people. So thanks for coming on, man. This is, this was really helpful. I hope people learned a lot and if they want to, uh, they should go to Bitcoin Magazine Pro and sign up so they can get this stuff on a, it's daily, right? Daily basis. Yeah. We put out stuff uh most every day and then we do like kind of in-depth reports we have free uh paid tiers so check it out we rebranded from the deep dive same same content just uh just a fresh rebrand launched it at the conference but yeah appreciate you guys having me on great to talk as always

Starting point is 00:26:34 and uh i will say i should probably just i could text you this but i will be in europe for the next couple weeks so not sure if i'll be able to make the stream but i can coordinate that with with this guy hey man we had we had a great conversation i plugged your i plugged your subscription service we brought up the twitter tell people to follow you and then you hit me with see y'all later uh no we'll talk about it man we appreciate you coming on whenever you're available so uh no worries we'll figure it out but thanks dylan we'll talk to you soon cheers fellas have a nice day you too thanks so much for listening to today's episode i really hope you guys enjoyed this one make sure you're subscribed on apple spotify or your favorite podcast player

Starting point is 00:27:12 and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the bitcoin or crypto industry we've got you covered head over to palmscryptocourse.com we've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry it's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more and i'll meet you guys for the next episode

The Pomp Podcast - #913 Dylan LeClair Explains The Financial Repression Occurring Right Now

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