The Pomp Podcast - #919 Most Of The Bitcoin Supply Has Not Moved In Past Year

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously i'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as will but i'm doing my best to keep up so before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto isn't made to just buy, sell and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with

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Starting point is 00:03:32 Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hey, everyone. Hope you're having a great start to your weekend. I figured we'd go over a quick review of what happened in the Bitcoin market this past week. First, if we take a look the week right after the Bitcoin conference, sitting at $40,434, give or take. Not exactly

Starting point is 00:04:09 the big Bitcoin boom that everyone thought would happen post-conference. If we then go ahead and we take a look, you can see that the market cap is sitting right above $750 billion. The inflation rate is still about 1.77%, and 90% of the Bitcoin supply has already been issued into the market. There's over 1 million active addresses in the last 24 hours, and miners were paid $37 million in the same time period to go ahead and secure Bitcoin, the most decentralized secure computing network in the world. Bitcoin is down about 41% from its all-time high, but it is up 22% from its cycle low. If we then go ahead and take a look at Bitcoin compared to gold in the S&P 500, yes, Bitcoin is down 35% over the last year. That's because the base effect, when it was going, absolutely parabolic at the start of 2021. But over any other time period, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 years, Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold and the S&P 500, worth paying attention to.

Starting point is 00:05:06 Then if we look around this $40,500 level, only 315 days out of all of Bitcoin's life has it actually been above this level. That means that for about 93.5% of Bitcoin's life, it's been lower. So if you bought at any point there and you held till today, you would be in profit. Then if we take a look, one of my favorite metrics is the compound annual growth rate over the last 10 years. Bitcoin sitting at 146% over the last decade. And that five-year sharp ratio, about 1.53, still superior to all other assets, gold, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and TLT. And of course, this is all happening with an incredibly high inflation environment in the United States. 8.5% report coming in for the month of March, significantly above that 2% target that comes

Starting point is 00:05:53 from the Fed. And if we take a look, Will Clemente pointing out that the spread between the CPI and the 10-year yield is at an all-time high. Not exactly what you want to see if you're a long-term investor. But is it actually 8.5% inflation or not? Well, it's hard to tell. There's a brand new metric out called Truflation, which points at 13.4% being the actual inflation rate we're trying to measure a more accurate inflation measure than the 8.5 cpi number so we then go ahead and we take a look at on-chain metrics will clemente and block we're doing a fantastic job this week going ahead and breaking down what's going on first short-term holder cost basis we can see here on the far right that the price ended up getting rejected off of that

Starting point is 00:06:34 short-term holder cost basis this is usually because people have been in the market less than 155 days as soon as they get near break even they've been underwater they're going to go ahead and they're going to sell. That's why we continue to see struggle to get up above that short-term cost basis. Then if we take a look at the futures open interest with crypto margined accounts, what you can see is that that continues to trend downward. This means that people aren't using their Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies to actually grab any sort of margin. This means it's healthier and it's unlikely that we will see a long, long cascade of any sort of volatility in the market. Then if we go ahead and we take a look at exchange outflows, we can see that it's reached a rate

Starting point is 00:07:12 that has only ever occurred three times before in Bitcoin's history. That was in March of 2020, December of 2020, and September of 2021. And so if we then continue, one of my favorite things to look at this week, this is a very, very important chart, is the supply not moved in at least one year. We are now at an all-time high. This means that the Bitcoin bulls are not selling. Then Blockware taking a look at the entity-adjusted dormancy flow, showing that in the heavy opportunity zone, it's just the sixth time ever that we're here.

Starting point is 00:07:44 It's also the longest time Bitcoin has ever spent in this zone. And then the illiquid supply continues to go absolutely parabolic. That pink line showing that the market continues to get more and more illiquid. Very important if you're going to look at an asset that is simply determining price based on supply and demand. And lastly, talking about demand, think about that persistent bid in the market coming from the Luna Foundation Guard. That's right, the Terra ecosystem saying that they're going to buy $3 billion worth of Bitcoin. Well, they've been doing that. Here we have their Bitcoin holdings in that foundation.

Starting point is 00:08:17 They continue to stack thousands and thousands of Bitcoin, about $100 million or more per day. As long as there's a persistent bid in the market and we have a more and more illiquid market, something tells me that all we're going to need is some sort of catalyst and this thing is going to go boom. I hope that you enjoy these weekly updates. Next week, we'll be back, myself and Will Clemente, going ahead and breaking this down on video. But in the meantime, I hope this is helpful, and we'll see you guys next week. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode.

Starting point is 00:08:48 I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. it's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and i'll meet you guys for the next episode

The Pomp Podcast - #919 Most Of The Bitcoin Supply Has Not Moved In Past Year

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