The Pomp Podcast - #934 Chris Power On Building 21st Century Manufacturing Facilities

Episode Date: April 26, 2022

Chris Power is the Co-Founder & CEO of Hadrian, a brand new 21st Century software enabled, manufacturing facility focused on the aerospace industry. In this conversation. we discuss building this new manufacturing model, space travel, going to Mars, Elon Musk, advancements in the aerospace industry, and the current macro economic climate. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry’s leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp ======================= The Pod Pro Cover by Eight Sleep is the most advanced solution on the market for thermoregulation. It pairs dynamic cooling and heating with biometric tracking. Go to https://www.eightsleep.com/Pomp to check out the Pod Pro Cover and save $150 at checkout. Eight Sleep currently ships within the USA, Canada, and the UK. ======================= The world's 2nd largest crypto exchange, OKEx, has dropped the "E" to become OKX, reflecting its evolution from a traditional crypto exchange to a comprehensive, cross-platform crypto services provider. With OKX's decentralized platform and Web3 wallet, MetaX, you have full custody over your crypto. Explore DeFi, NFTs and play-to-earning gaming with the world's most powerful crypto exchange. Visit OKX.com to learn more. =======================

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Chris Powers, the co-founder and CEO of Hadrian, a brand new 21st century software-enabled manufacturing facility focused on the aerospace industry. In this conversation, we talked about space, Mars, Elon Musk, economics, software, hiring, building out factories, and much, much more. I really enjoyed this conversation with Chris, and I hope you guys enjoy it as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. First up is LMAX Digital, the number one institutional crypto exchange. They offer

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This podcast is for informational purposes only. We have Chris Power who's joining us from Hadrian. I think is how you say it correctly. Is that right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. So Chris is here. We're going to have to go real slow.

I'm not the smartest guy in the world. So to understand, it is like big brain stuff. But maybe what we could just start with is like, what the hell is your background? You guys are building this incredible company around like space manufacturing and contract manufacturing, et cetera. But like, what is your background to even understand that this problem exists, let alone have enough kind of confidence and courage to go work on it? Yeah, it's, it's a weird journey. So, um, I've got a

mix of like blue collar kind of logistics experience from, uh, helping run e-commerce businesses in Australia. And at the time this was like pre eBay, pre Amazon and Australia is a big country. So it's very like logistics heavy to run an e-commerce thing. You got to actually run like a warehouse and figure out a bunch of international shipping as well. So I was always building software for like blue collar environments. And then I was head of sales in a very technical environment building like automated scheduling software for large, large factories, large shift based workforces. So if you have like 5000 people in a logistics facility, like, how do you know how many drivers you need? How many know how many forklift forklift drivers you need all that other

stuff. So building very complex software that connects with like a real world environment, like people and machines um so i've always been in that weird blend of like blue collar finance and um and like building complex software and i wanted to build something in the american industrial base because i realized that at a very like peter teal style macro view you've got um software really hasn't touched industrials at all um you know there's there's sas companies that sell to industrial you know and you've got like sap or whatever but you know it's all built to sell to the cfo and get a million dollar contract it's not actually built to drive any real operating efficiencies so i realized that at macro view the only way to bring technology

to the industrial spaces in general is basically vertically integrate a software company with an industrials company and that the value creation was in being the most efficient factory on the planet not in selling sas software to other factories because you know they only use 10 of it there's a lot of misaligned incentives all this other stuff and then i think mission is really important. So, you know, I was working 80 or 90 hour weeks, like we were killing it as a business was awesome. But, you know, I was getting pretty burnt out. And I realized it was primarily because I think 90% of the venture funded companies in the world, you know, you could delete basically, and outside the investor base and the employees, the world wouldn't really

blink. I think it's really, yeah, maybe more, maybe more. Yeah. And I think there's a lot of contrived missions out there right um and that's fine but I hate the cognitive dissonance of like we've got this really amazing mission but everyone knows you're just trying to make money like that's actually fine just say you want to make money and then you know go do that don't like hide the ball behind some contrived mission but for me it was like what I want to do for the next 20 years and how can I align um you know what I've kind of landed on is like an Archimedes lever of a company which is you build the company and the economic incentive of building that company as big as possible is completely aligned with the mission so there's never any like oh we're like an esg

company and we're trying to make money and there's a clash between the balance sheet and like what what the mission is of the company um so i literally went bottoms up on the every basically every manufacturing industry in america um so when i landed here i didn't know what specific industry manufacturing i wanted to build this type of company in so i literally bottoms up analyzed, you know, food, paper, plastics, you know, logistics, aerospace, like every type of manufacturing you can think of. How do you do that? What's the process? You say, Hey, I want to go learn about the paper manufacturing, like supply chain. What do you do? You call like a hundred people a day. Okay. Um, so the, the, there's a lot of alpha in manufacturing because it's not like

you can, you know, download a report or it's on zoom info or something where like you can understand the margins of a food manufacturing business, for example, right? The knowledge is out there there's a ton of plant managers and people experts in the industry or whatever but it's um yes i i literally just reached out to you know 50 to 100 people a day from all these different industries um and started to learn you know where's the technology at you know how automated is each industry what are the margins how fragmented is supply base like what are the macro challenges what are the micro challenges and started hearing the same beat in aerospace where it was this like keith raboy highly fragmented low nps you know you have to vertically

integrate the solve the problem for the you know type of type of market um and because of the boom in commercial space there was huge changing demand signals from the customer side you know they're moving 10 times faster than legacy primes there's net new spend all over the place and the supply chain is really breaking and basically what i realized was um there's this enormous you know 40 50 billion dollar high margin market that's being served by three to four thousand literal mom and pop small businesses the average revenue of a single business is about eight to nine million it's unbelievably fragmented and all these businesses basically got started either around the time of the cold war or the first space race and basically what you've got is all these amazing

incredible you know family operated manufacturing businesses serving our most important companies in space defense semiconductor manufacturing you know e-vetol and it's just a period of time where the customers are basically just moving too fast and the supply chain domestically that's making parts for these companies is just not keeping up and when i realized that and then when you realize the geopolitical importance of the us having strong space and defense capability especially in this decade when we're butting heads with china you know the reserve currency the world might be shifting you know either to like a you know a kind of uh polar multipolar system or you've got like the rise of bitcoin as well as like a potential pseudo reserve currency

of the world so there's all the interesting dynamics and once you realize that there's There's huge customer pain right now, but also for the country and for, you know, having a U.S.-led system where it's largely free and you understand that, you know, none of these important companies that are making rockets, satellites, jets, or drones can operate over the next decade and really increase their production to the level that we need them to without the supply base being really fixed, then it's perfect mission alignment. But, yeah, it was all bottoms-up brute force discovery, yeah. So when we look at the aerospace space or industry, what's fascinating to me is there's – I listened to a couple of podcasts that you did. And one of the things that you brought up was like, look, pretty much all the players were built for like the original space race, right? And they've been around for a long time. They're usually owner-operated. They're relatively small in the grand scheme of things, you know, millions of dollars to maybe low tens of millions of dollars in revenue.

Small employee base. super, super fragmented to your point. Uh, almost, you know, no technology in the way that you or I would think of, uh, of kind of technology and where it is today. Uh, and it kind of just feels like it's like a good gig. Like, like when I was listening to you talk about it, I kind of thought of it as like, Oh, it's the type of thing where like, you know, you get done early and like, you can like go golfing with your buddies and like, it provides a good life for you and your family. And like, you're off to the races, but it's not the 90, 100, 120 hour, you know, work week? How do we go in and solve real problems? It's more like I got this contract, it lasts for

a long time, it's providing this great kind of financial benefit. Is that like a fair characterization? Or am I being too kind of tough on analyzing like the existing part of the system? So I think there's some businesses where the owner is kind of absent. And you know, it is like that, you know, they've got a bunch of Northrop Grumman contracts, and it's been rolling for 20 years, and they're never gonna have to reshore that business, like it's always going to stay there. it's a very sticky revenue base i think a lot of owner operator machinists do have a really tough time like like manufacturing is hard um these people are like incredible at what they do as owner operators um but yeah there are some of these legacy companies where there's probably

not a lot of work involved you know the employees have been there for 20 years the contracts have been there for 30 years don't worry about it and there is a definitely especially in defense there's a huge subset of businesses like that where yeah they've been around for 20 years they're going to be around for 20 years and it's a pretty easy gig yeah so when we start to think about what you're actually building right so there's a fragmented uh kind of i'll call it an analog system even though uh there's a little software mostly analog what what are you building like how does this work from like a software and you're laughing because i know people are asking you this right yeah but it's uh from what i understand it's a software manufacturing and supply chain like a software

we're building highly automated factories basically okay where do you have physical factories? Yeah, we have two in the moment in LA. Okay. Explain more. So basically from a customer's perspective, what they want is what they're getting is, Hey, they say, Hey, I want a bunch of rocket engine parts. And they get, they're getting them in 10 to 12 weeks, 30 to 40% of those orders end up several weeks later, have quality issues. And then the customer service is incredibly poor. Like I call pumps machine shop and say like, Hey, you promised me this in six weeks. I haven't heard anything. And it's week five, like what's going on. And then you like hang up the phone or you don't even know, cause you don't know the capacity of your own

factory right so these big rocket manufacturers they're literally calling like mom and pop shops to get some of these parts right now oh yeah yeah completely so the entire advanced manufacturing like supply chain in the u.s is basically resting on this this house of cards of small machine shops which did an incredible job for the country in the first space race in the cold war but are now just no longer keeping up with the demands of all these advanced companies and how much of this is um there's challenges with like quality so like i order five parts from five different people and they make all come in different you know measurements or quality or stuff like that versus it's just like i need the five parts and like i don't know if i get them today or in a week

both both okay so like what can happen is you might be like an aerospace engineer that's trying to get a satellite design done by the first of june right and you've got an assembly team so you need the parts a couple of weeks beforehand so you've sent out all these contracts for different parts and they've all said yeah we'll definitely get them to you by like you know the first of may um so firstly like half of those will end up in the third week of may so now your assembly team is panicking which is like terrible right you're like trying to run a mcdonald's and you're like your patty supplier just can't really tell you whether the patties are coming on thursday or like next monday how can you possibly serve customers it's completely insane on the

quality side the tolerances of parts that this supply base and that we are making are down to like micron you know surface profile tolerances right so you might look at like a satellite housing that looks you know the size of a laptop and across that entire surface the position of a hole has to correlate to a position of another hole within a couple of microns so you're you're dealing with tolerances where like um we climate control our factory down to like one degree fahrenheit variance in machining if the sun shines on a machine at the start of the day the parts will come off completely different to the end of the day when the sun is not shining through the window because you're down you're down to so incredibly close like tolerance for the quality

side that even like the heat thermal expansion properties of like the aluminum part can like literally changed based on you know a couple of degrees in weather so it's really hard to do properly but yeah that sounds really hard yeah so you're in this you're in this pressure cooker situation where like you know you're screaming at me saying i'm trying to make this satellite i'm trying to get your parts and maybe on the day that we're meant to ship them i call you i'm like hey two of them are out of tolerance like can can you can you just accept them anyway and use them like it's completely it's completely insane one of the things that i read too when you guys announced your fundraising was that you said that you guys were hiring people from all over basically i think

the companies you had mentioned were like Chick-fil-A and Walmart and you have them basically down to make the, they're able to make the parts within 30 days. How are you able to do that? So this is where the software comes in. So basically from every part of the process from, you know, quoting a job to scheduling the factory and managing capacity and then doing all the workflow of like, you know, how do you spit out all the tasks to either machines or humans as, as part of this manufacturing process? A lot of it is digital because you actually got to program the machine to like cut these parts you know it's custom geometry every single time and then operating the machines can be incredibly difficult where you're using firstly these things

are like two million dollars each they're incredibly like you know they're two tons you know they're moving around two thousand pounds of steel at like you know 1.2 g's but still hitting like sub micron tolerances they're incredible things right and usually what happens is you've got a custom piece of software that the manufacturer has written where you have to learn this obscure a code base or learn this obscure user interface to just run one of the machines. So what we've done with all of our software is basically at each step of this process, including running the machines, automated 80 or 90% of it, and then wrapped our own user interfaces around the 10% that's still very hard for a computer to do. There are some computation stuff that

a human can select the right outcome in five minutes, but it might take three PhDs for five years to automate that bit. We wrap it around a way simpler user interface so that an operator from, say, Chick-fil-A can be running one of these five-axis machines in 30 days because they're not starting from scratch and learning how to set a tool or figure out what this crazy UI is or get into the depth of this machine to figure out how to even turn it on. Most of that's automated and the tasks they have to do are in our software that we've basically connected everything together so that, you know, you can set someone in front of a machine. It's not, you know, it's not super intimidating. You know, our software looks more like, you know, Instagram or something like that.

And that's how we're doing the whole thing, yeah. So when you think about this, are you starting with a specific type of part? Okay, so like I assume focus is really important here, get it right, and then you kind of expand. What are the parts that you're starting with? So anything in aluminum within a bounding box of about, you know, 28 inches cubed.

And the reason for that is in aerospace, you've basically got like aluminum, steel, titanium, and inconels, and, you know, inconels might go on a rocket engine because it, you know, it can get really hot and doesn't warp. aluminum is like great for satellites or like rocket housings and stuff so basically we built a factory that as long as it's aluminum you know within a certain bounding box you can throw a cad

file at us and we'll spit out a part you know 10x faster than anybody else basically and is this like the equivalent of 3d printing but with uh different materials or like how are you doing it yeah so this is cnc machining which is subtractive so additive is you know you build up deposition material subtractive as you cut it away and for aerospace and defense and semiconductor the the quality and the tolerances are so tight that 3d printing technology is five to six years away from having tight enough tolerances to be able to make aerospace parts so if you wanted to print something 3d printed for automotive where like it might be within a couple of foul quality because the car needs to be accurate but not like super accurate yep but if you're making something for you know

a human space flight program like it has to be super accurate otherwise like people can die and the 3d printing technology just isn't there yeah so the subtractive model is much better okay now Now, another question I have is there's Varda, there's a bunch of these companies that now I think the invention of the reusable rocket, right, and the ability to kind of drop the cost of rocketry is going to lead to the explosion of space, let's call it. A hundred percent. Are you guys targeting the Vardas of the world or are you targeting the like Lockheed, you know, what i would think of like the legacy uh people who have been participating in in kind of this space enabled world like like who who is the better customer like somebody who's technology

enabled or somebody who has no technology at all really so the short answer is both okay but for this year we're just doing what i would call like new commercial space and defense okay which is companies like vada and delian uh delian who co-founded vada led uh co-led our seed round with with lux capital um this is almost a year ago now so don't tell us that we're gonna get mad at delian for not calling us go ahead i was just saying i was checking my phone i didn't see a call like where's the alpha like all right delian and and then he's like yo by the way you should bring chris on the podcast strike two delian yeah it could have been 12 months ago let's do this in reverse next time totally um so but those types of companies are the ones that

are new space first because it's your classic startup dynamic of like hey if you're a stripe you want to sell to Y Combinator startups because they'll adopt you quickly, right? And they understand the value. You probably do less like convincing them. Yeah, yeah. And then what I would call the larger primes or the larger space companies,

no, we're engaging with them as well. The response since we announced the fundraiser has been absolutely incredible. It's just their internal processes might take six months to onboard us, whereas a new space company might take three weeks. So we're working with both of them in parallel, but we don't expect any revenue to kick in

from the larger legacy companies or, no, they're not even legacy companies. They're just massive, massive, massive companies. Yeah, more bureaucratic. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Or they're working on government programs. So, you know, their processes have to be way, way, way tighter than someone who's just putting a commercial satellite up.

How long does it take to build a factory? So we retrofitted an existing factory within, I think, like 47 days. Oh, shit, that's crazy. Which is like nine to 12 months faster than anybody else. The new factory that is coming online, which is about 100,000 square foot, just, you know, in Torrent in LA, will come online, I think roughly July 1. And that took us from signing the lease, I think it'll be like five months. It's fast too. It's super fast, because it's like rolling out a Starbucks franchise or

rolling out an Amazon logistics center. Like for Amazon to scale, one of the things they have to get really good at, and they did get really good at is rolling out logistics centers super, super fast. So you know, you acquire a site and within 60 days, there's 100 people that, you know, pickpacking books or whatever we basically have to do the same thing this is why this is such a painful business to execute is because if we want to hit like a exponential growth curve like your average sas company we have to have a great product we have to be great at selling it we have to be great at onboarding customers we also have to learn how to scale factories as fast as fucking like you can roll out starbucks franchises or you can roll out amazon logistics centers so

part of what part of our like competitive advantage is like you know give us another six months and we'll launch like two factories and start building the third one and then skip ahead a year and like good luck finding another team who can like build factories in a couple of months you know yeah yeah and so when you think about building the factory how much of it's like uh the i'll call the organization of the machinery versus there's other things you have to do like what's the slowest part of it right now i mean i'll give you an example we nearly lost schedule because you can barely find any concrete or cement in the country right now just because of supply chain issues that's part of the ukraine russia conflict but also you're going to space and

you can't find fucking concrete yeah literally yeah so these machines are so accurate that we actually have to retrofit the factories with 18 inch concrete foundations and vibration isolation pads so if a truck drives past they don't they don't move right yep and your usual out of the box factory that you you know acquire from commercial real estate maybe has like four to six inches right so we have to like literally rip up the floors and like do it again we're putting uh hvac in the entire factory so that at any point in the factory it's climate controlled within a couple of degrees Fahrenheit. So that's-

For a 100,000 square foot factory, that's a lot. Yeah, it's like a lot of energy and it's a lot of HVAC, it's really expensive. But like, you know, a lot of the HVAC material is made out of like, you know, aluminum tubing or steel tubing and you just like can't get the raw materials at the moment. So we're just fighting this inflationary effect

of both the conflict and the Fed all the time because it's causing these massive supply chain shocks. So part of what we do is, yeah, we have to retrofit the buildings to land the machines and then, you know, it's effectively just plugging everything in and setting everything up and commissioning the machines so yeah yeah inflate inflation is only eight and a half percent don't worry about it um yeah are you guys going after these contracts yourselves or you're just kind of licensing this stuff out to mom pop shops

building better facilities for no we do we deal with the direct direct without direct with the customers how um how do those contracts work some of them are long term like you're building a bunch of satellites for someone and it's a five-year deal it's like ar right um some of it is more like the closest analogy I would give is like Dropbox or Box where like some of the users might be oh they've just you know one buyer has just found it online and then you know they're using it you know for incremental stuff and then the CTO will come along and be like wow you guys are amazing

we're rolling this out as a service across the entire company. Will you guys bid for the contract or? Yeah but most of the contracts that we do are like long term kind of capacity deals where someone's coming along and saying hey you know we're going to make 100 million in parts next year We want to put a deal down for 10 million in Hadrian capacity. And now underneath that, what are the parts? We don't know because it'll depend on what they need to make over the year.

But that's the way we're structuring it. So it looks much more like a data center than it does a factory. How do you run the business? Because I'm assuming you have technologists. You have like the manufacturing component. You've got the executive team, et cetera. Like what does like a week look like at the business right now in terms of are there specific standing meetings

or what does that look like? Yeah, so I think the most unique thing about how we've constructed the business is two main points which is everyone who's tried to automate manufacturing before has taken this very like coastal elite approach either it's you know people in suits who have MBAs going I've got a finance degree I'm going to acquire a manufacturing business and tell you guys what to do which is super arrogant like people in manufacturing have the hardest job on the planet and they're geniuses the software angle to that is hey you know I've got I've got a PhD and I'm going to automate everything and I'm not even going to listen to

you. I'm just going to assume I can figure it out. So the unique thing about Hadrian is we have the best machinists in the country have been making aerospace parts for, you know, 10 to 20 years who also know enough about software where we can put software engineers with them and they work together to build the company. So we basically have project teams, you know, with software engineers and machinists working in hand to hand across all parts of the business and we decentralize it. So it's kind of just like, hey, you sit next to your customer who is, you know, your your your teammate or whatever but the people who are running the factory are the software engineers customers and we run projects like that and then every week there's literally a customer

service meeting about like hey here's what we here's what we fixed for you you know whatever and culturally that's really important because we need to continually teach people like hey you're coming out of google and you know you're super smart or whatever but your customer is this guy on the floor who might be you know might be working hourly um you know packing boxes or running a machine or whatever. And that's the most important cultural touch point is making sure we always serve the people in the factory who are doing the actual work versus taking this like really arrogant approach. Yeah. When you think about talent, uh, what's like the process look like to get a job at Hadrian? Depends on the role. I mean, software engineering, we have a super

great pipeline, like tap us up with jobs at Hadrian.co. Um, that was a softball by the way. Thank you. Thanks. Um, the funny thing about the factory jobs though, is none of these people are on linkedin and the market does not know that you can take someone who's i don't know working in hospitality right getting grinded down by 12 hour 12 hour weeks maybe you're on 14 15 dollars in california you know you're you're you're burning daylight because you know sweet greens or whatever can't hire employees at the moment because you know the great resignation or whatever and the market in general doesn't understand that you can onboard to adrian get a job at a way higher hourly rate and within 30 to 60 days be doing something really meaningful like you know making

rocket parts for the coolest rocket program in the country right and that's part of the thing why we have to make the brand so cool is to make sure of that like boosting that awareness because none of these folks are on linkedin so you can't really go outbound and reach them and yeah that's a it's a real challenge so in the software hiring process like what does that look like in terms of you giving them like tests to take home i'm fascinated by a business like this which is you need to have an immense knowledge in both software engineering, but also need to understand just, hey, I can write code, but also there's a manufacturing component to this.

There's various different files, et cetera. So we basically, we've got good pattern matching, but the two things we test for and look for is basically, can you be a product engineer? Are you going to sit there waiting for someone to tell you what to do? Or can we put you next to one of the internal customers and you're just going to start solving problems for them? And we actually, in the interviewing cycle,

have them interact with one of their potential co-workers who they're going to be writing software for and if that goes well it's a really good signal and we interview some amazing software engineers that just kind of stumble around and say like i don't know what to build or whatever other ones they get off the call and they're like you know this was awesome like you know i can solve all these problems like super hyped and they're kind of doing their own mini product management and the second thing is we have a mechatronics and robotics team we have a like computational geometry team we have a data science team we have a back-end and front-end team like we have a very broad you know software engineering practice within Hadrian so as part of the technical

assessment we're actually not only going are you a great engineer but like where's your personality like do you want to integrate with the machines like do you want to write you know things in the cloud for computing you know geometry calculations like are you a mathy person are you more of a data scientist so we're kind of doing this matching process as well so when you think about this is it fair to say that like SpaceX basically dropped the cost of rocket launches and that was an enabling factor to this kind of explosion of interest in doing things in space totally and really you all are building the ability to enable even more of an explosion because now all those people who want to build these aerospace or space type companies there's a manufacturing solution

that will allow them to get the parts and kind of enable them to actually do it yeah totally you know so it's kind of like you know 10 years ago to start a software company might have cost a million dollars because you had to write everything from scratch figure out how to spin up your own servers figure out how to write payments you know whatever and then you've got like stripe twilio aws and now starting at software companies maybe a couple hundred bucks if you've got the skills right and that enables this huge cambrian explosion of many many more software companies what spacex has done and other companies like spacex have massively lowered the cost of launch so you're getting a ton tons and tons and tons of new things being launched to space

what we want to do with hadrian is by lowering the barrier of entry of advanced manufacturing and abstracting all these supply chain problems away to a user interface for a new aerospace engineer or someone working in defense is lowering the costs massively for existing companies making rockets, satellites, jets, drones, semiconductor factories. But then once this infrastructure layer exists, what I think is going to happen is when you lower the barrier of entry of starting something, you're just going to see tons and tons and tons

of more aerospace and engineers and mechanical engineers starting new space companies because they've got this infrastructure layer there and they can just spin it up instantly versus having to spend a year just figuring out how to get parts, yeah. SpaceX, $100 billion company, how big can this be? Adrian, so I mean, right now the industry just in high precision manufacturing alone

is 40 billion in high margin revenue today, not accounting for the secular growth. 40 billion in, you said high margin revenue. Yep, like right now. Not accounting for any future growth in defense. You can assume if a company like Andoril grows, the secular thing grows. So I think we can be Amazon big, basically, if we get the next two years, right, we're so far ahead of anybody else that I don't see any reason why we can't, you know, it's like an AWS style thing where the infrastructure layer for everybody, there is no other option. Yeah.

And basically all of the quote unquote incumbents, they're so far behind from a technology software standpoint, they don't actually understand a lot of this stuff of how to do it. So even if they recognize the problem, there's an advantage against the incumbents. And then also there's this element of, I don't know, there's 10 investors in the world that I think if you get them behind you, you got a much better shot in something like this. You've got most of them. and then really it ends up being in a business like this like every 30 days that you're working and somebody else hasn't started their company it's just compounding and like they'll never catch you exactly and it's the capital side

it's the talent side it's the understanding side it's progress with customers it's all that other stuff but yeah we're learning all these hard incremental lessons so I think in about six months time another company could raise 200 million dollars and start and they would never catch up because they'd be starting with the B team or the C tier team and they're trying to catch up

not having learned all these hard incremental lessons which actually let us move fast today. Have you seen demand just rise more and more by the month or by the year in this industry? Literally the biggest problem in space and defense at the moment that no one's talking about is it's just massively supply constrained. No one can get parts.

Anyone with any sort of, like ignore the technology. Ignore how efficient we are. If we just spun up a half decent machine shop right now, there's just a massive supply and demand imbalance. it's completely insane yeah so you're seeing lead times just grow and grow and grow and grow maybe let me check out your software for a little bit and kind of how you're doing if i license though no no we'll franchise it out we don't need any more shit going on we got enough cash flow do you have any uh any guesses

on when we're going to be on mars oh definitely within 10 years within 10 years so there are two like you're going to be there or just like a human will be there oh definitely a human yeah so there are two launch windows to mars it's 2024 and 2028 uh because you got to wait for a four year cycle because the orbits and that's when we're the closest it's the least distance yeah yeah and i'm not a genius but i got i figured that one out yeah yeah because the biggest the biggest cost to a mars mission is basically getting enough rocket fuel in orbit and that's super expensive because it's heavy so and that's enough to get there and back or just get there uh i don't know what elon's got planned like you know that sounded like just to get there

I'm also not the smartest cookie in the shed or whatever the fucking phrase is. But that's the plan. And I really don't think that SpaceX or anyone else shooting it will let us slip past 2028 because then you're in like the mid 30s as your next opportunity

and that's a long time to wait. Yeah. So let me ask a couple of questions actually about Mars and I'm assuming you just, because of what you guys do, have thought a little bit more about this than I have. One of the,

what maybe started out as a conspiracy theory in my mind, but now it's started to become more of a real theory given that the Boring Company he just raised 675 million dollars and a 5.6 billion evaluation uh i've always thought that is he practicing on earth for what he's going to have to do on mars i mean i don't know this firsthand but that would be the guess that that to me that would be the thing you probably need you know solar cars battery powered things because you're not going to have a combustion engine okay you probably need to dig because there's not a lot of atmosphere so you don't want to

build overground bases you want to build underground ones like okay you need vertical takeoff and landing for getting things to and from the surface like you know it's not just landing a rocket or launching one you need to like land it vertically you know it's like uh yeah it makes it like is this guy a fucking genius oh yeah right like like when you start to put it together and you're looking at this you're like this dude is out here he's playing a practice game and he's built you know whatever 1.5 2 trillion dollars worth of value and he's practicing what do you think the twitter use case is for mars then i i to honest to god this is what i really i really do think that he's uh telling the truth when he says that he doesn't care about the economics and uh it would

not surprise i'm not gonna say he's gonna do this but like i think this is what he should do and it would not surprise me if he did it if he took it private he fired like 80 of the staff and he open sourced the whole thing yeah you do the call icon thing yeah well no but but call icon would fire 80 of the staff and then try to like sell it later i literally mean by twitter fire 80 90 of the staff just keep the engineering team open source it and then literally say this is now for the internet and like some kid in india who's you know 18 years old who just learned to code and they come up with some great feature why can't i add that to my twitter product i think that would be wonderful i think i think the back end of twitter might be a dumpster fire so possible

yeah pot probable yeah there's enough spam on here for for uh i feel like when you think about all the businesses he has going though and specifically tesla right his whole thing is that they don't spend any money on marketing and it's zero dollar cost item twitter is that marketing engine obviously yeah it's vertically integrating yeah if you're tesla it's a cat and you're elon musk and you can spend 15 billion dollars of your own money go take out money whatever financing wise and go acquire that and basically buy yourself insurance right i mean hey I'm just saying if the president can get deep platform anyone can get deep platform you think that Elon Musk is buying Twitter as insurance I don't know marketing engine for Tesla I don't know

I'm just saying it damn bro you you got it more of a tip for me you're going deep down the rabbit hole that's a big boy conspiracy is that coffee in that cup I'm just saying yeah it would make sense do you you really think that he cares about uh uh the economic let's start the economics you guys think he cares about the economics of Twitter you have to because otherwise you know I don't know if you saw the the readout of the morgan stanley deal there's like a 500 million dollar revolver there's a bunch of debt tranches like you have to got it so he wouldn't buy it with cash he basically would go and and do an lbo well you gotta do an lbo and even if even if he didn't personally care about the economics somebody the partners have to there has to be a justification

for it yeah someone putting money in the deal is like how much we buy it for you still got like you know as much even if even if morgan stanley are the biggest elon fans they still got to underwriter you know it's some ir right it's just you know but but at some point it seemed like he was going to take a run at this by himself and he was going to say i'm gonna just bet 20 of my network i mean we're 250 billion i mean this is classic like you know mid 80s barbarians at the gate stuff right where you know first you get up to like 9.9 you send a nice board letter saying like hey i'm on the board now you know you do like the billions thing and then uh obviously whatever happened in that that board spill didn't go well and then the next move on the thing is

yeah you put a syndicate together with a couple of banks funding it you do you do the barbarians at the gate thing and you you know lbr lbo r you know rj nabisco or whatever do you want to hear our theory as to why he didn't join the board yeah go for it they probably sent him like the code of conduct and like the the uh the public policy speech and like all that stuff and he was like no i'm not agreeing to none of this shit i'm on twitter so i can tweet whatever i want this is the most interesting thing he's like the sec can't even tell me to stop tweeting no no no and then you look at the board of directors and like none of them have any significant twitter shareholding so they're not aligned they all seem to come from funny places

like none of it makes a lot of sense and you got jack putting out like two kind of snipey comments and obviously he can't say anything publicly but you know he's hinting at stuff that might have been going on for like several years so like you think jack and elon are in cahoots and elon bison brings jack back yes that was my second tinfoil was that jack got forced out essentially i think this is a new project we're gonna do pump conspiracy theories no no no i think he was against a lot of the stuff that was happening towards the end and he basically wanted nothing to do with that and then if elon was to buy it he would be much more inclined or interested to run i do think a lot of the people shooting at

jack when he was the ceo of twitter didn't realize that internally he was like i think of it like he was like holding everyone back he's like no no no you've seen the spider-man on the train thing yeah oh yes 100 like if he would have just been like all right fine y'all do whatever you want like every single one of us be off twitter too like forget just the present like it would have been over 100 like jack jack is ultimately like a free speech proponent you know as as are we all in this room but yeah i i do think that the company was like pseudo taken over and jack was firewalling a lot of it and now that he's gone like we don't have that anymore yeah it's um it's pretty wild are there any other companies that you find really fascinating right now

like tech wise or space related so i still think so obviously all of our customers are making amazing shit like rocket engine companies drone companies i mean that is actually the coolest thing is just like holy shit like this part is going on this amazing piece of equipment and we're like you know um in terms of other companies broadly i think like companies like vada which are doing really interesting plays and like shout out to delhi and here's some free alpha like returning capsules with goods you know from space for manufacturing whether it's pharma or defense applications especially when i don't know if you guys know this the iss is getting retired in 2028 so like anyone building anything that is stable in orbit for capsules or return or whatever

has just a huge run ahead of them um because a lot of the iss revenue is actually from like pharma companies you know paying them 10 20 million dollars a year so i think something like that is huge i think that uh you guys know flexport ryan peterson's companies i think that like flexport will just slowly grow to a like 200 billion dollar company i'm shocked i think the latest valuations we can go real quick i think it's only like 8 billion 10 billion something like that yeah right and uh how important and how dominant it is i was shocked at how low the valuation 100 i don't know i don't know anything about that deal specifically but like ryan and his team and their COO Sane are like incredible operators and it wouldn't shock me if you know

everyone was asleep at the wheel and we woke up in five years time and it was like one of the biggest companies on the planet yeah I that I completely agree with and I actually was shocked when I uh because I forget what happened maybe he I think he went on the all-in podcast and I was listening to him and uh I'd heard him talk a bunch of times before and thought you know pretty highly of him uh but he said a couple things how big is this company and I went and I googled it and it was only eight billion and i remember being like dude this company should be worth a gazillion dollars right 100 and i and i think it will be yeah okay all right so uh so that's your two for two varda flexport i agree with both those and then like i would if i could if i had any money

uh that's liquid which i don't well i have a great deal for you i'll give you money you give me shares and then you'll have money you could do whatever you want isn't there a name is there a word for that oh and then i then i would say any any animal or human longevity company oh interesting yep why why uh animal uh so this is going to get a little bit weird but a lot of the problems with longevity companies is the fda yep because it's a huge like a regulatory environment right and the way biotech works is you either invent a new molecule and that molecule kind of becomes like a regulatory bridge so a lot of what happens is i don't merc or whatever invest a billion dollars into this particular compound and then everyone follows on because the fda is

like approve that compound so any modification to a compound that looks like that basically it's like an opportunity cost you don't have to spend a billion dollars to get it through the fda and do all these trials so you can kind of like go in stream with it there are a bunch of really interesting longevity companies that are doing longevity for animals and the bet is effectively that it's a firstly it's an amazing market because if you could sell technology or a booster shot to a dog you know you know do you guys have any pets i was laughing because they're in the comments here i have a dog named ranger and they said ranger's gonna live to be a hundred all right so let's say ranger like you know like family dog like cool name for a dog sounds like a german

shepherd or something cool like that right golden retriever if ranger's like okay golden retriever ranger's like eight years old and you could pay a thousand dollars to make him live till 12 you'd probably do it so it's an amazing commercial market right um and but it's also a regular pathway to human longevity because it's the same it's the same technology so if you can race to get there with animals and you have this kind of regulatory barrier to entry then you can be the first person to do human longevity and that is just like a huge huge huge market that no one's thinking about there are a couple of really cool startups wait i got a crazy stat this is the same stat i was gonna read it because i sent it so i get to read okay this is this is a this might be

That would be the wildest stat we've shared on this show in a long time. That's a big call. It's wild, and it goes along with what you were saying. So Bill D'Alessandro tweeted this yesterday, and he said, mind-blowing stat, there are more dogs in the United States, 76 million, than there are children under 18, 73 million. There you go, secular decline of the American empire. Yeah, 38% of households have at least one dog,

and only 30% of households have at least one child. The dog market is bigger than the kids' market. Yep. Like, that is mind-blowing. Yeah. There are more dogs in the United States than there are children under the age of 18. Yeah.

We are fucked. Yeah, dog companies. Oh, yeah, the birth rate's fucked. Yeah, this is the secular decline of the American empire. Yeah, yeah. I don't think- You guys got to have more kids. The dog market's not bigger.

Well, hold on a second. Do you have kids? No, I don't. All right, wow. I have one. So why don't y'all pick it up around here, all right? My personal promise to the board was that I would not try and get a dog

or start a family until at least a Series B. just like done a time it's uh boards are starting to ask a lot of uh really important things now we had somebody come in here recently oh yeah and they said uh uh that they had bought so much bitcoin that uh the board made them promise they wouldn't buy any more bitcoin on the balance sheet or they wouldn't or they couldn't raise the round who was that uh who was it uh oh uh joe from mudwater they basically had uh mudwater's treasuries in bitcoin yeah that makes sense like they were like it's a mushroom company what are you gonna do so uh uh but yeah the birth rate is obviously huge huge problem uh but i think when you put it in contrast with the dog

like population right it's like everyone's like oh yeah dogs popular but like no way there's more dogs than kids but yes there is yeah huge problem do you think that space in any way solves that stuff it actually probably hurts it right yeah you've got this weird like you know ultimately i think every fight in every arena whether it's political or whatever can be boiled down to like Like, are you a de-growther or are you a growther? Like, are you for growth or are you for decline, right? Well, there's two, like, perspectives I'd say. I'd say growth versus non-growth,

and then I also always talk about, like, problem solver versus, like, critiquer of problem solvers. But I think that's de-growth. I think it's like, hey, we want this, like, world government totalitarian thing where there's, like, you know, population control or, like, you know, as a central bank currency where, like, we can make sure we're not using as many resources

and, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's all de-growth. yeah the problem with space is that the narrative that you see oh it's a billionaire space race like you got bernie sanders over there you're like whatever um bernie would go to space if he could 100 he's gonna have to start lifting yeah because like you have to be jacked like actually that was the funniest thing is like you remember that photo from uh bezos when he went from skinny to jack like three years ago everyone in the space industry was like he's doing astronaut training really yeah because obviously started a space company that's that's why you have to be like

super fit to be an astronaut the g-forces and all that or yeah jeff bezos is training to be an astronaut no this was like three years ago yeah i remember at uh what's that what's that conference sun valley sun valley and previous no photos from jeff six months before sun valley and then he looked at the terminator yeah and everyone in the space industry knew that he was going up on a blue origin flight because he got jacked because you have to be super fit to be an astronaut and so literally jeff bezos who was at the time the most richest man in the world he literally said i want to go to space but like he started training for it yeah but but he's not going to real space he's going like he will though but no but if you think about the psychology three years but what about

the kid that was like 16 that went with him he wasn't jacked oh yes you don't you don't have to you don't have to be jacked to go into like that okay to use a hot air balloon is how i call it there's if you use a hot air balloon you don't have to be jacked yeah yeah that's fair enough all right so hot air balloon and our version of fake space i'm just saying but if he does want to go no but this is serious if he wants to go to iss or anything like that okay and as part of that what is the training that astronauts like why did he become so physically fit from doing that is it just lifting weights and like cardiovascular stuff like if i just go to the gym like it's just that yeah you just have to be in much better shape than your average human yeah yeah and so you think that

he's going to go to iss you think he's going to try to go to mars i i have no idea that's interesting thing i wonder i wonder if elon's going to go to mars or he's going to stay down here but well musk i think he said that he would go but when he knew that it was uh not safe enough he i forget exactly what he said but he basically was like i'd go it'd be a one-way trip and i would only go once i knew that like i could still have impact when i got there yeah right so like okay that's kind of crazy yeah uh what about you pom mars here's my whole thing you can do like time delayed podcasts right well it would take a long time to send back no but but i think that there's a a really interesting question around like if you get sent to mars right let's just say that

like we were uh we were the central planners right we could be like all right you go you don't go you go you don't go who would you send like from society's perspective who are the best people to send like we obviously have to send some technologists some like problem solving people etc right also what people get real weird about is like gene pool you yep you want gene pool you also want uh the uh a group of people who want to create families and continue to reproduce etc on mars you also missionaries yes you also want uh people who might not necessarily be there to solve scientific or technology related problems but will make it uh viable and attractive for more people to want to come yep right it's like you start thinking about this like you're planning

a society oh yeah yeah and there's people that are in that bucket that should go like they have like the titanic with like women and children only and it's like sure like we morally think that that's the right thing in a survival case yeah yeah but to build something but if you were like hey in the whole titanic there's only 12 people that get a go and these 12 people like humanity is going to count on to like survive yeah people get mad but you're probably not sending the kids so the psychological thing here is really interesting so there's a bunch of there's a bunch of like studies that the space agencies do where they put 12 people in a fake capsule or whatever and then they have a simulated mission control and they're giving people orders and

yada yada yada and basically and they put them under pressure situations because they're trying to figure out like how do we live on the iss for long term how do we live in orbit how do we live on mars and inevitably most of the studies go bad because like within a week it's like they all team up against mission control and it becomes this weird effect of like really yeah it's a huge psychological problem that no one's no one solved because when you when you split two people like that and it's isolating all this other stuff like the iss is super connected so it doesn't count when a lot of the simulated studies of like living on another planet or whatever like you just you just turn and you know you turn against mission control like that and it becomes this like split

thing yeah so what are they gonna do like it's unsolved or you just have to keep sending enough people where they feel like connected this is what i'm saying it's it's not it's it's just to your point it's not it's not just a technology how long is the communication right now so like if you were on mars and you wanted to like send photos back like the rover or whatever do we know how long the delay is yeah it's not it's not far so i don't know the time it's not fast enough to control the rover that's why the rover has to be autonomous because you can give it directional shit but you can't it's not fast enough like pick up the rock you know it all has to be trained i don't know it's at least several hours but i think but hours is much better it's not weeks

i don't know we should look this up yeah it takes five to twenty minutes for a radio signal to travel the distance from mars and earth five to twenty minutes but that's just the radio signal yeah yeah so if you have any sort of data etc like could be even harder i mean that's interesting and then the other piece that i think becomes really interesting the laws huh that that's what i was gonna say he gets there first he makes the rules yeah well this is the interesting thing so well do you remember when everyone's freaking out and they're like elon musk said he's gonna create the laws on mars and everyone was like we can't let the evil billionaires and he was like okay you go then like if you get there you get to create the rules yeah the other thing is like

laws are only enforceable with threat of force right so if you're up in space by yourself like yeah what are you gonna do yeah yeah but like mars like when you get there if you have a society like Like, do you drive on the left or right side of the road? No, it all has to be re-litigated. This is one of the most interesting things. Yeah. Oh, you think that, like, they're going to set up a whole other judicial system?

100%. It's inevitable. Yeah. It's a completely different operating mode. There's survival instincts all over the place. How do countries think about it? Should it be, like, should countries be racing to get there first

and try to establish something there? So there are treaties that govern this. There's the Outer Space Treaty and the Lunar Treaty, which governs things like, it's like Antarctica. It's like, you can't just take shit off the lunar surface you can't actually claim territory you can put a base there but you can't own land there isn't one that governs the rest of the solar system okay so that's completely up for grabs uh but no there are yeah there are it's like mars is up for grabs it's not up for grabs in the like cowboy sense

it's just there is no there is no agreed upon legislation so that sounds like it's up for grabs so if we somehow pulled a rabbit out of a hat we got to mars before musk like we could be like we own mars and then like if he starts to try to get there then he's invading us i think it's a very similar thing to like you know a group of group a group of countries that are un aligned will decide on something the mars treaty like the like the lunar treaty now is that who cares about the paper on earth this is what i'm saying is like if you're there first and you're there five years early yeah well it's also like what are you gonna do whoever gets there with the most presence right it's no correct yeah this is what i'm saying you have authority

you have like power yeah what what is the uh general estimate or thinking around what period of time we'll have like a sustainable living on mars i don't know about mars i think that'll be more like 15 to 20 years because it'll take a while for it to be sustainable right sustainable being like you don't have to continually ship food and supplies yeah i think if we pushed five or six billion into the moon we could have it done in five years easy if you just drop it if you drop the iss onto the moon and accelerated some of the technology around like water extraction and shit easy and what is the thought process on on investing much more heavily in mars versus the moon it's just two schools of thought around like how do you how do you settle the solar system

right so one view is one view is the moon is a perfect like fuel station yes it's a good test case and it has hydrogen and water and solar power which is what you need to make rocket fuel right and the other the other case is it's not hard enough and it'll never be a long enough forcing function because you can resupply the moon much easier than mars so that the one of the other schools of thought which is for mars is you have to do the harder thing otherwise we'll never set up something it's self-sustaining and the other side of that is you know uh protecting human life the moon is close enough to earth that there was any sort of huge asteroid catastrophe the moon would probably be taken out as well whereas mars is far enough away that it's actually

you know a hedge against a terminal event for humanity so if i went i'm being dead serious now If I went and I raised $6 billion and I said to investors, I said, hey, I want to go build a moon base. You think that could get it done? $6 billion could get a moon base built? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And I'm assuming SpaceX rockets could get the materials there, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is what Elon's building for. Like, you know, you basically do your own private Artemis mission. Is he going to try to build the moon base? I've seen photos of what looks like a moon base. I don't think NASA has bid out the base yet,

but they've bid out the contracts for landing supplies for the base. Oh, so NASA's in charge of this? Yeah, because the government's funding it and then they do this really smart thing where they basically, it's a really smart thing that NASA is one area of the government

where they're nailing this. They just give the economic incentive and let the market compete. So they just basically say, hey, to get a kilo of mass to the lunar surface, like what are you going to charge us? And obviously they vet the quality and the safety and it's very rigorous.

Instead of trying to do it themselves. Yeah, instead of trying to build it themselves. SpaceX is, they're the winner I talked to an aerospace company the other day From what I took away from the conversation Everyone's just building to fit those SpaceX payloads If they want to send anything up there Is that relatively true?

No, there's a bunch of rocket classes Where SpaceX would be like a train or a bus There's a bunch of small launches Like Astra Where you're launching stuff that's like One satellite But they're trying to go much faster There's a bunch of mid to heavy sized launches

for abl space relativity rocket lab where depending on the payload class and the speed whereas like starship or whatever you could put a bunch that you know they actually sell ride share yeah like so people are designing yeah that's what they were building their ability the capacity does affect like the designs of what you can put up there but there are a very wide range of rocket companies that are serving different parts of the market do you think in your lifetime you personally you'll spend a considerable amount of time on mars on mars no like one night maybe i'm trying to figure out if you think that you're gonna sleep there if you're gonna go but i don't think that they're going to have the ability to come back that's the part that i think correct

no no you can come back from the moon there's no way you could come back from mars would you go to the moon if offered yeah yeah but the moon the moon yeah for some reason the moon and maybe it's just literally it's closer and like you know they allegedly went in the fucking shill moon coin or whatever don't give people ideas next thing you know they're gonna be like pomp endorsed moon coin i have no clue but no no i think that there is this element of like everyone thinks of the moon is like not that crazy and i do think part of it is like uh uh you know neil armstrong buzz all like the whole situation uh for some reason like um it's like when roger ship banister brought uh broke the four minute mile now everyone's like oh of course we can do that totally and so with

mars right now like i think a lot of people are like oh i saw martian like that didn't look so cool right like the the movie it's tough yeah and they're like dude he was like you know he's like i'm a botanist bitch right like in the movie he's literally like growing stuff out of the the mars the thing that's unrealistic about that is like you could you could like conceivably send a rescue mission to the moon relatively quickly you're mars you're fucked yeah how long would it take to get to the moon i have no idea man it's it's it's it's less than a month i think yeah i don't know i really that's not quick like yeah but it's quick enough yeah it's not like six months all right so this is the last part of my question though all right go ahead how long i could talk

to him how long would yeah me too how long would it take to basically be able to get people back from marsh or once they go are we basically just like you can't get back because you can't get back at all you can't get enough fuel and stuff there to then get back right so the well technology you can involve and maybe well okay so here's the problem is you can make rocket you basically like need water electricity and hydrogen right sorry uh you need yeah you need water and power conceivably that technology doesn't really exist but like you could do it like has mars got enough water except for the poles like maybe not whereas the moon that the the bet with the moon which is unproven is that there's actually ice all around the place so getting getting water for both rocket

fuel and humans living is much much easier but yes the problem with mars is like the biggest cost is basically getting fuel in orbit so you can push a bunch of rockets to mars and if you burn all that down like it's much much harder you would have to just go there go there and make a bet that you would figure out how to make rocket fuel that fit your rocket engines off the martian surface and that might take a decade yeah and the other thing is like it would almost be like taking a long-term trip and being like hey i'm gonna drive 500 miles in my car and i'm gonna carry gas cans in the back to then refill it, which doesn't make sense to try to do that. All right, I have one last question,

and then we'll let you get out of this shit show that we've created. Or this circus, maybe is a better way to describe it. If I remember the dates correctly, between 1958 and 1962 is moon landings, and I think there was multiple moon landings. I think I have those dates right. But over three or four years, whatever the exact dates were, multiple moon landings.

Why didn't we go back? Like, what's your read on this whole thing? Six moon landings, four years. Yeah, in four years, right? In the late 60s. Late 60s. Okay, so 68 to 72 then, I think it was. Yeah.

Is why didn't we go back? Or like, what's up with now all of a sudden there's this resurgence in interest in them? I think that as a country, we forgot. We got lazy and we focused on, you know, the roaring 80s of private equity and the financial success or whatever, and we forgot how to do hard things.

um we had no real global competitors after the russians until now uh because now the russians are back in full force and so are the chinese and but as a country we we fell into this classic cultural trap of everything's really easy so let's not focus on doing hard things and maintaining the culture that got us here in the first place and just you know focused on the financialization of everything and you know expanding the empire financially right um and something happened in the early 70s with you know bretton woods or the removal of the draft there's all these other things that happened in the same three-year period in the 70s and somehow america lost its seriousness you know we used to focus on you know not trading cat pictures on the internet we used

to go do hard shit just because it was hard like send human beings to the moon or figure out how to you know do all this incredible stuff and build quickly and i think you have this wave of patriotic people or immigrants like you know elon being an immigrant and actually like you know half of the startups that make it to the fortune 500 are immigrant founded so i think you know americans in general you know there's been this overall decline in doing hard things and building in the real world then you have this huge software is eating the world wave you know where everyone's focusing on software your harvard business school grad doesn't want to go into private equity he wants to go start a sas company right and i think we're now at the wave of you know trailblazers

people you know they're making rockets and satellites for their own private companies are showing people that it is possible you know um and now we will go back but i think it's a huge huge loss to the country that we stopped building in the real world for 30 or 40 years and that resurgence is really important and that's why in some ways what's important to me about hadrian is not just the work we're doing for customers or the country it's the fact that we are showing people that you can build fast in the real world again and we are the anti-decline company and that's not that hard and whether we successful or fail i think hopefully one of the biggest impacts we have is that like many many many other people realize that yes it's it's painfully hard

but it's possible like we can go back to the moon uh and encourage more people to do that rather doing things that are like very incremental or maybe don't matter so much you know yeah it's um uh i one completely agree with the thesis that like we forgot how to do hard things uh i'm going to add something to it not only did we forget how to do it uh the inspirations yeah started to get pushed into the background and there was the celebrate uh uh the celebrities became the hedge fund managers even the venture capitalists right like a bunch of this stuff or in the 90s it's all supermodels yeah where are the astronauts yes and i think that elon actually this is probably if i had to pick one thing that he's done that uh i would assign the most value to which most people

aren't talking about is he empowered an entire generation of really kids right on 35 40 and to dream again yeah early 20s yeah and uh i remember what was it a a year ago two years ago when uh uh they had the big launch um at uh at spacex i remember watching the bob and dog mission uh yeah yeah yeah and i remember watching it and uh i was you know classic uh millennial i'm watching it plus i got twitter up yeah and i'm watching all these parents at the time tweet and be like i'm watching this with my seven-year-old i'm watching this with my nine-year-old i'm watching this with whatever and they're and they're basically sharing anecdotes of how these kids are like holy shit like this is possible yeah and that feels like woo-woo and kind of like oh whatever

but i think it's really important yeah because it ultimately drives like there's there's some kid who watched that who now will spend the next 20 years thinking about what to build and we'll go on and build a mass hundred percent and we don't need more kids doing slide decks at mckinsey and we don't need more kids optimizing ad clicks at one of the big fan companies yes like it's a fucking waste of the best brain power the country has to offer and the fact that if you look at like you know you do this survey of like chinese kids and who they look up to it's like scientists astronauts they fucking released a propaganda movie in china that was about a semiconductor conductor engineer like and we're releasing movies about like dumb shit i don't even know

what i'm a dumber yeah exactly yeah six is coming out no no no totally and the the resurgence of builders at the forefront of the american psyche is one of the most important things we can push because we don't need the smartest people optimizing ad clicks or fucking how how do you tweak an algorithm and make this one ad path on google one percent more profitable like no come build at a company like vada or hadrian or andrew or spacex or something that's doing something that matters instead of just spooling around solving a hard problem but you know like the empire is like collapsing around you you know what i mean like people are going to find out 100 is very very quickly that like oh i can't click button and food appears in my pot and i eat the bugs anymore

you know like it's it's going to come very hot and fast yeah we're we're already seeing it now all of a sudden if you uh uh yeah i could talk to you forever about this what's your what's your bet on inflation by the way because i think it's more like 23 yeah i don't think it's anywhere near eight and a half i love how you just lit a fire at the end of the yeah no i so it depends on how you evaluate it i actually think that you can't put one single number on inflation because that the inflation for hadrian is different than like the average person normal like cpi basket that's not being fitted with a bunch of uh you know chicago economy i think it's over 15 for sure easy right so like like just put that at like probably at least double what they're stating

it is and uh the best way that i usually describe it to people is like 33 of the basket sheltered they're still saying shelters up five percent year over year like fuck off right there's just like no matter how you do the math and they've changed the construct of the basket every couple of years for like a bunch of numbers anyway of course but like even if you use their construct it's still like if 33 of the basket is shelter you can't tell us housing's up about 20 rents up 20 but oh yeah shelter's only up five like the numbers just don't make sense yeah so i think that's uh there but what i actually think is the story that doesn't get talked about a lot is the business owners right if you look at adrian or others their inflation is way worse oh yeah because

they're not dealing with what i would consider uh uh consumable goods that are actively being worked on to keep the cost low yes so there's all sorts of stuff that the government tries to do to try to drop prices around food and this type of stuff right but if you need concrete like i don't know what the price of concrete's done over the last two years but my guess is that it's gone parabolic i'll give you an example my uh dentist small business owner amazing woman you know runs one of the top clinics in la and she was telling me about six months ago that um the the cost of a dental tech firstly she can't hire any you used to get flooded with jobs and now can't hire anybody even though she's taken an hourly rate from 22 to 28 so that's like real world inflation that's

like 30 40 percent yeah yeah and you can always look at real estate you know 20 30 percent stock market was up 30 bitcoin's up 65 like you just look it's like how are all the investment assets that also benefit from inflation how are they all up more than eight and a half percent but somehow only the consumable goods went up so this is this is the problem with money printing which you know but i keep telling people this especially on the left because regardless of your political affiliation one of the things people we got to get really straight is that you print money for stimulus packages that are meant to help poor people you know you can argue whether that's moral or not but if you assume that it's like a morally good thing to help people what people

don't understand is in an inflationary environment where there's been tons of money printing the economy becomes k-shaped and basically you know there's there's a bunch of poor and rich people the economy is already k-shaped so you're trying to put stimulus money in to help the poor people and like you know bring the curve back together what you end up doing is basically printing a bunch of money inflation hits and what happens in an inflationary environment is that assets inflate three to four times faster than you know wage rates or you know consumables or whatever so what you end up with is you're making the problem worse for the people that you were trying to help and this is what fucking baffles me about the strategy is this huge cognitive dissonance of

like okay you're trying to help the bottom 50 of americans in terms of income or socioeconomic status you're printing a bunch of money to do it and it's inevitably leading to the situation where if you're an asset holder when inflation goes through the roof you win and if you're not an asset holder you're basically fucked and you can never catch up it's crazy it um it's a situation where uh once you understand it you can't unsee it and then once you can't unsee it you begin to realize why the rich get richer and the poor get poor it's because it is it is not has nothing to do with wealth it has everything to do with the education yep and we only have two very scary options in this current inflationary environment because last time it happened we you know

interest rate was like four or five percent so we could lower it curbing oh sorry raise it okay whatever now i think if we raise if we raise interest rates at a fed level like it's something crazy like two percent don't quote me on this exact number but it's like low enough that it's possible the at the fed and american level the uh debt to gdp ratio on the payments on america's debt will go to like 30 percent of gdp and at that point we can't we can't power our own debts right yes so you either have to print the trillion dollar coin and debase the american currency or we're why my germany inflation in a period of time where russia and trying to create you know create a multipolar currency system off the petrodollar and you've got you know cryptocurrency

creating this new third road or whatever there are only two inevitable options and both of them lead to a serious crack in the global financial system and it's it's it's inevitable there are only two roads and i don't know why everyone's like not panicking in the streets you know like it's a chat by the way people are like he's one of us i own no cryptocurrency however yeah global you don't own any no bitcoin nothing no why not oh because i like focused on history talking my liquid cash to like move to america and then i have no cash because i pay myself like nothing when did you come to the u.s about three years ago oh okay so recent yeah yeah uh welcome uh sorry sorry for the uh pandemic lockdown inflation

yeah masks yeah i was coming in for more freedom not less i don't know i see some videos from australia i don't know if that was a good trade or bad trade but the stuff that was going on there was pretty crazy oh yeah i would have gone nuts yeah you got coffee in your cup that's the video i always remember is there's a video of a guy he's walking through the park and the cops come up and they make him open the cup to see if he's got coffee in it because you're only allowed to be out for a coffee. Yep.

All right, where can we send people to find you on the internet or find out more about Hadrian? They can look for Chris Power on Twitter, which is 2112power. And then they can just Google, yeah, Hadrian.co, come apply for jobs, come visit the factory, come build some cool shit in the real world

instead of, you know, doing dumb things on the internet. And yeah, that's it. What a pitch. That's an all-time pitch. Yeah, I mean, yeah. everyone like everyone everyone in the audience knows what's going on you either fucking do something about it or you don't do something about it and now is the time so fucking get off your seat and like you can compete or you can complain correct Adrian tiring yeah all right

ladies and gentlemen that's it for today there's that's it I'm not saying anything else the end of this show I love you all we'll see you guys tomorrow thanks fellas thanks so much for listening to today's episode I really hope you guys enjoyed this one make sure you're subscribed on apple spotify or your favorite podcast player and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum

with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.