The Pomp Podcast - #940 64% Of Bitcoin Has Not Moved In The Last Year - BTC On-Chain Analytics

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously i'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as will but i'm doing my best to keep up so before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto isn't made to just buy, sell and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with

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Starting point is 00:03:44 You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's up, guys? Bang, bang. Bitcoin had a massive week this week. And so, of course, one of the beauties of the market is that we can go right to the on-chain data and the macro data and see exactly what's happening in the Bitcoin network. Here's a summary of the past week. If we start out, we can see right here some of the key market dynamics is that Bitcoin's trading just under $39,000, drastically outperforming a number of different assets. If we then go take a look at the Bitcoin network stats themselves, the Bitcoin market cap sitting

Starting point is 00:04:26 just about $750 billion or so. Of course, we're still at a 1.77% inflation rate, which is below the Fed's target of 2%. Over 90% of the Bitcoin supply has now been issued out into the market, into that circulating supply. The real exchange volume at $2.5 billion or so, over a million active addresses, and miners were paid $35.7 million in the last 24 hours to secure the decentralized network of Bitcoin. The GBTC premium is now a discount at a negative 25.34%, and Bitcoin is still down 43% from its all-time high. If we go and we take a look, Bitcoin versus gold versus the S&P 500, we see that Bitcoin over the last year is down 28% while gold's up 7% and the S&P 500 is up 2%. But if you go to any other time period, Bitcoin is absolutely destroying

Starting point is 00:05:17 gold and the S&P, up 374% over the last two years and up 775,000% over the last decade. Then if we take a look at Bitcoin's closing price, Bitcoin sitting right about $39,000 means that Bitcoin has only ever been above this price point for about 349 days. That means for over 92% of Bitcoin's life, Bitcoin has been lower than the current price point. So if you bought Bitcoin at that point and you held till today, you would be in profit. If we then go ahead and take a look at the compound annual growth rate of Bitcoin over the last decade, it sits at 145% or so, destroying the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, and TLT. And then, of course, that five year sharp ratio at one point five one coming in much, much more attractive than any other asset.

Starting point is 00:06:03 Then let's switch gears and go to Willy Woo. Willy tweeting out that the orange coin seems a bit undervalued here. Not a bad time for investors to wait for the law of mean reversion to play out. He's looking at that highly liquid supply shock oscillator going ahead and trying to tell us exactly how much Bitcoin is worth compared to the price at which it's trading. Then if we take a look and we go and run over to Will Clemente, the wizard himself, taking a look on-chain at exactly what's going on in the brand new blockware newsletter that came out this week. First, he starts with the price and he drew out these lines showing that Bitcoin just trading in range. Then if we go ahead and we take a look at the on-chain price levels,

Starting point is 00:06:42 what we can see is that in blue here, the short-term holder cost basis, and then in orange, a ratio of realized price liveliness called a Hodler implied price. This is a bullish scenario based on the chart, according to Will. And ultimately, you'd want to see a push above the short term holder cost bases that they've been talking about. The bearish case would be that we actually go down and cross over the short term cost bases before the Hodler implied. That would be a sign of capitulation. If we then go ahead and take a look at various price levels, we can see here at the realized price distribution. This visualizes the amount of Bitcoin that was last moved at each denominated price level. About 14% of Bitcoin's money supply last moved between $38,000

Starting point is 00:07:23 and $41,000, showing that that is the highest distribution on this graphic. Then let's go move and take a look at the funding rate, which remains kind of a mixed signal. It's an indication of a lack of strong opinion in either direction from the perpetuals market, as well as an increasing market efficiency. That is the view of the blockware folks. Then let's go take a look at the geographic premiums and Will and the Blockware team breaking down this idea that Asian trading hours have been trading Bitcoin at a premium for the first time since January. That's been a fairly strong signal of local recoveries aside from a slight premium in late November. And then ultimately the previous premium regimes, the post-COVID crash, the dip that bought to $47,000 in April of 2021,

Starting point is 00:08:08 a massive dip buying in the summer of 2021. And then of course the 40K in September 21. and then right in January. So to see the Asian trading hours, trading Bitcoin at a premium, pretty incredible. Then let's jump to the supply not moved in at least a year. We continue to see an amount over 64%. I'm sitting around 64.5%, which is an all-time high. Bitcoiners aren't selling,

Starting point is 00:08:34 and over 64% of Bitcoin has not moved in at least a year. Then let's jump and take a look at the Bitcoin whale holdings, and you can see that whales are accumulating aggressively. This is such an important metric that Will literally texted it to me this week and said, wow. As we see the entities with over 1,000 Bitcoin filtering out all the exchanges and GBTC, et cetera,

Starting point is 00:08:57 those whales continue to add to their holdings. And this is the first time since January that we've seen this occur. Now, of course, the Bitcoin market, it's important to pay attention to the on-chain metrics. On-chain is not some magical indicator. It doesn't tell us the future, But what it does do is it opens up in a transparent way exactly what's already happening on-chain.

Starting point is 00:09:17 This data is available in the Bitcoin market. It's like getting an earnings report every single day on the Bitcoin network. The Wall Street investors are going to open their eyes and start to realize that on-chain metrics are incredibly important. And as they begin to realize they have more information and more transparency in this industry, you're going to see more and more investors, more and more traders start to come into the market. Bitcoin is holding strong, especially in light of the meltdown in tech stocks and other industries.

Starting point is 00:09:43 All those other assets, they're down 50, 60, 70%. Bitcoin down about 40% or so. And so even though it's down in price, it's holding up better than lots of other risk assets. It's going to be interesting to see where Bitcoin goes from here. There's arguments that it could be a bearish outlook. And there's arguments that it could be a bullish outlook. My favorite metric, though, is that 64.5% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in a year. this market's illiquid and it's going to take a catalyst of demand to drive the price higher

Starting point is 00:10:12 where that comes from i don't know and neither does most people but when it comes as we've seen many many times before bitcoin moves fast once it gets going that's it for this week i hope you guys enjoyed these updates i'll be back next week with will on the show i hope that you guys are enjoying these and i'll talk to you next weekend thanks so much for listening to today's episode I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition

Starting point is 00:10:41 to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more

Starting point is 00:10:59 and I'll meet you guys for the next episode. Thank you.

The Pomp Podcast - #940 64% Of Bitcoin Has Not Moved In The Last Year - BTC On-Chain Analytics

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