The Pomp Podcast - #959 Darius Dale On The Brutal Macro Environment

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42Macro, the leading macro risk management advisor. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on in the macro economy, what's happening in the financial markets, how Darius is looking at various metrics, and also what you at home should be thinking about as you invest your capital. I really enjoyed this conversation with Darius, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Exodus,

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Starting point is 00:02:51 Go to their website at defi.tech today. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment

Starting point is 00:03:10 or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Darius Dale from 42 Macro. Darius, how are you? I'm great, man. How are you doing today? I am doing fantastic.

Starting point is 00:03:23 There's a lot of people who are not doing so fantastic. Prices of all assets continue to sell off aggressively. What is your read in terms of kind of where we are in markets? I think we spoke last week. You made a couple of calls that seem to be playing out pretty well here. So what's your general read on asset prices across the board? Yeah, so we'll speak to Bitcoin specifically later, but let's just take the kind of 30,000 view of where we are in the broader liquidity cycle. So

Starting point is 00:03:49 obviously, we continue to see a lot of pain on the screen when you look at stock markets, credit markets, et cetera. One thing that was really interesting this week is you finally started to see bond prices go up as stock prices go down. That is very new as it relates to this particular cycle. And it's an indication that the bond market, at least the investors of the several hundred trillion dollar bond market globally are starting to get concerned about the growth outlook. Obviously, inflation continues to be very unhinged. And but clearly, the growth, the shift to focusing on growth is now something the bond market's concerned about. And that's obviously got the digital asset space concerned as well. So when you start to look at kind of

Starting point is 00:04:28 bond market, it seems like many people are maybe confused or surprised in terms of equity prices coming down, yields a little bit higher. You've got the pricing of interest rates. When you look at that, is this how you would have expected it to play out? Or has there been some surprises there in terms of the relationship between equities and bonds, risk assets, and maybe more value type assets? Yeah. So this year has been particularly interesting. We've all been sort of operating in this post-GFC global financial crisis era, and particularly post-GFC sort of kind of configuration of monetary policy. And as a result of that, we've all been conditioned to expect bonds to rally as stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin, et cetera, go down in price. That

Starting point is 00:05:18 has not been the case this year. And part of the reason that has not been the case, the predominant reason that has not been the case is because inflation has been significantly above target, above trend, and significantly above levels that it historically sort of catalyzed and perpetuated the inverse covariance between those two asset classes. Now that is starting to come back to what we've considered to be normal in the last kind of 12 years or so. But there's no guarantee that we have crossed that bridge fully. I think from the perspective of where we are in the broader liquidity cycle, it is clear to me that just from another surprise, this is happening much faster than we've seen the kind of degradation in previous kind of crashes, if you will, in the

Starting point is 00:06:00 post-crisis era. Part of the reason that we're seeing so much the speed of the declines and really the timing with which the declines are occurring vis-a-vis the growth and liquidity cycles is partially because of this new feature we have in financial markets, which is called forward guidance. Forward guidance isn't particularly new, but what is new in this slowdown is that the Fed is using forward guidance as a tool to tighten monetary policy. Historically, forward guidance has predominantly been used by policymakers to give confidence to investors to go take risk. We got your back. Things are going to be better. Big Daddy's here to save the day. Now they're using their words to tighten us into a global economic slowdown.

Starting point is 00:06:44 We're seeing this in mortgage rates. We had a three sigma rise in mortgage rates on a trailing three year basis that is going to crush the housing economy. we've had a three sigma rise in corporate borrowing costs on a trailing three-year basis that's going to crush the broader sort of productive capacity of the economy and then we've also just had a three sigma rise in real 10-year treasury yields that's going to take out a lot of the sort of leverage and speculation we've seen in financial assets which obviously is happening on our screens this week so when you start to think about that idea forward guidance talk to me a little bit about exactly how this works and why are they now choosing to use it versus having used it as a tool in the past? Yeah, so I think the reason they're choosing

Starting point is 00:07:25 to use it is sort of twofold, right? Like one, the Federal Reserve prefers to be measured in everything it does, particularly when it's tightening policy, because it doesn't know what it doesn't know as it relates to where the neutral rate is, which is the level that the Fed funds rate can sort of persist at without either slowing or being accommodated to the economy. And so they prefer to kind of go incremental at a time, go, you know, 50 basis points at a time, let's assess, give us another six weeks to assess, et cetera, et cetera. They're also using forward guidance, in my opinion, because as human beings, the human beings who got the inflation call extremely wrong last year with respect to the transitory narrative, I think that as humans,

Starting point is 00:08:06 they're just saying, hey, look, we got to talk tough to the American public about inflation and consistently sort of reiterate that we're going to do something about it because we have not done enough to quash the inflationary pressure thus far. We obviously got inflation CPI yesterday. We got PPI today above economists' expectations. The momentum in the time series continues to go unhinged. And we obviously have the Fed reacting to that. So when you start to see the CPI print, obviously we had 8.5% CPI in March. We get 8.3% in April. Is that a cause for celebration? Or should we still be very, very worried about this high inflation? No, no, no. very worried. In fact, you know, I think that as I've been speaking on the program, on this program

Starting point is 00:08:51 and several other programs, the year over year time, the year over year level of inflation is almost moot at this point, because when you think about it, just in terms of where we are in the market cycle, we don't have enough time. I mean, if we have to wait till inflation on a year over year rate of change basis to get back within the Fed's, you know, kind of two to two and a half percent mandate, it's, you know, we're going to be dealing with this kind of price action for at least another year, if not another year and a half. So that's almost moot. So one thing we've been focused on in terms of our models is really focusing on the sequential momentum in the time series. So that's the month-over-month, month-over-month annualized, three-month annualized

Starting point is 00:09:27 rate of change. So three numbers that I thought were particularly instructive in the CPI report yesterday, obviously the headline came in at 8.3 year-over-year, but we're still tracking it 9.5% on a three-month annualized basis. So nearly double digits there on headline. Another statistic, you have median CPI, which is the rate of inflation across everything in the basket and taking that on a median basis. The three-month annualized rate of change there barely slowed to about 6.2%. That's just off, that's only 10, 20 basis points off the all-time high we recorded last month. And then lastly, if I put up that first chart, I sent you sticky CPI. And so sticky CPI is measuring the inflation of everything within the basket that tends to have very,

Starting point is 00:10:12 very sort of lagged price changes, things like housing, et cetera, stuff that doesn't change and reprice quickly, like food and energy tends to do. So that sticky CPI metric, it barely slowed on a three-month annualized rate of change basis to 6.5%. And as you can see, the year over year continues to accelerate. And the reason I bring that up is that this type of inflation, the median inflation, sticky CPI. Those are the things that feed directly into core PCE, which is the Fed's preferred inflation metric. We'll get that kind of in two to three weeks towards the end of the month. And so that tells us, hey, we're still going to be at a very adverse place in the global liquidity cycle. That's the second chart I sent you, Pop. The second chart shows the blue line

Starting point is 00:10:57 is the G5 central bank balance sheet. So this takes the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, the BOJ out of Japan, and the PBOC in China, and showing that in dollar terms. And the red line just shows the dollar, the total amount of global equity market capitalization. So from all the stock markets in the world, and as you can see, that's been a very, very highly correlated bet over the sort of, you know, kind of really throughout my entire career, my career began at the beginning of that chart back in 2009. And so, you know, the reason I bring that up is that, hey, as long as inflation continues to misbehave, particularly in Europe and in America, which is clearly the lion's share of those two charts at about 18, 19 trillion of

Starting point is 00:11:42 that 31 trillion total, we're going to continue to see that blue line go down. And as a function of that blue line going down, we're likely to see the red line going down as well. And you can substitute that red line, which is equity market cap for cryptocurrency market cap for credit valuations, et cetera. When you see this liquidity reduction going on here, is this something that is highly reflexive? Meaning that as it draws down aggressively like this, at some point unknown to us today, we should expect it to rocket back in kind of that reflexive nature? Or is this something that is more like a 200-day moving average and it just takes quite a while to bottom out and then it'll go back into kind of growth mode at some point? How do you think about the bottoming of

Starting point is 00:12:25 something like that chart? Yeah, excellent question, my friend. You're world-class at that. So you kind of lead me right to the next chart. So the answer to your question is, yes, at some point, that blue line is going to bottom and rocket back up. And the reason that will cause the blue line, which is, again, the G5 central bank balance sheet, what will cause it to rocket back up is the central bankers get nervous. They start getting very concerned about financial instability. They get very concerned about sort of not a soft-ish landing, as Powell talked about last one day, but more of a hard or harder landing than was currently anticipated according to their models. And so what we're trying to do here at 42 Macro is help investors contextualize

Starting point is 00:13:05 when we might see that dovish pivot out of the Federal Reserve. That's what I toot about all the time. I say, hey, you don't buy when there's blood in the streets. You buy when you hear the sounds of Federal Reserve ambulance sirens. And then what I mean by that, the sounds of Federal Reserve ambulance sirens is that's when they're starting to pivot dovishly. You could see that They'll start talking about it rhetorically. We'll get to certain levels and thresholds in terms of the economy and in terms of financial markets that signal to them that, hey, it's OK to shift our focus from inflation to growth and to financial conditions. And this is why I'll go back, put that chart back up if you don't mind. This is why I bring up that chart, the financial conditions chart. The red line in this chart shows the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, which is really just a proxy for how tight or easy monetary policy is in aggregate through the lens of things like equity valuations, earnings yields, cost capital for credit, dollar, et cetera, et cetera. And right now, you know, the red line, where the financial conditions are in the economy currently, you know, we're nowhere near where we've seen historical pivots out of the Fed in terms of, you know, being concerned about financial stability as their primary focus.

Starting point is 00:14:11 The black line in the chart shows the S&P 500's next 12 month EPS yield, earnings yield. And so this is sort of kind of, you know, a proxy for valuation, you know, sort of a sort of it's a proxy for valuation of the market. And again, we've not seen that proxy for valuation or financial conditions get up to levels that would signify, hey, we've seen enough capitulation in asset markets to activate the Fed and to get them back to cutting interest rates, expanding their balance sheet. And so you really have to have a good informed view on where we are in the growth cycle and where we are in the inflation cycle to start to anticipate precisely when that is likely to occur. Got it. And so when we started to think about something like Bitcoin, one of the big questions is you can look at what I'll call micro Bitcoin data is on-chain metrics, kind of market structure, all of the supply demand mechanisms. But it's got this macro backdrop to it.

Starting point is 00:15:06 I think I've asked you before, but given the current situation, are you more putting more weight on the macro kind of environment or on the micro market structure of an asset like Bitcoin if you are evaluating Bitcoin and what could happen in the future? Yeah, no, I think I think investors. would do well to do both. And this is sort of the issue. And this is, we're all human, right? We only have 24 hours in the day. And so we're all going to specialize in whatever's either easiest or been taught to us throughout our careers. But the reality is if you want to be a great investor, I think you need to do both. You need to understand the bottom-up fundamentals

Starting point is 00:15:39 of the particular assets and asset classes that you're allocating capital to, but you also need to understand where you are in the broader cycle. There's sort of three cycles that we've really specialize in, in terms of measuring, mapping, predicting with precise precision at 42 Macro, and that's the growth cycle. Where are you in the growth cycle? It's a sine curve, either accelerating or decelerating. You're at the lows or the highs. Where are you in the inflation cycle? Same dynamics. And then where are you in the liquidity cycle, which is the most important cycle as it relates to getting financial markets right? You need to have a very clear view on where we're headed from a growth and inflation standpoint in order to anticipate inflections

Starting point is 00:16:18 in the liquidity cycle. So I think if you have a good handle on that, or you outsource the risk management of it all to people like me, or, you know, someone who does what I do even better than I do, then I think you can really reallocate your time and focus on the bottom of micro fundamentals. But I think I suspect the problem with a lot of investors watching the problem with a lot of investors who came into this week and are having a bad week is that they spent entirely too much time focusing on the bottom up micro fundamentals and not nearly enough time either focusing on or allocating to resources like myself. Got it. And so when you look at something like Bitcoin, let's go to the micro factors. Obviously, there's been a ton of talk about

Starting point is 00:16:57 realized price or kind of the on chain cost basis. I think last week, you had told us that anywhere around that like 28,000 range, you'd get start getting excited. We have to see breach 28,000 got down to, you know, somewhere that $25,000 range realized price seems to be around 24 000 how are you thinking about these and full well understanding like now we're talking about micro improvements of uh you know various prices of a couple thousand dollars but but how do you think about where we are and some of the price action that's occurred uh given the models you guys have yeah so i will actually say it's quite encouraging that we held so um if you look at the uh fib nacho retracement analysis that i put out on twitter yesterday um relative to uh the so the

Starting point is 00:17:37 entire bull run from the lows that you and polina were talking about just prior to my coming on to the highs that we observed last fall, the 61.8 retracement level, which has been a very sort of sound level to kind of invest and speculate in Bitcoin throughout its life cycle, that level is at 28,774. And so we kind of breached below that and now we're trading right back above it. So it's clear that other investors are keying off that level and saying, hey, this is a good price to buy. And so I do believe that is still a reasonable price to buy. The problem with we're buying it today is that we're not yet near that sort of inflection point in the liquidity cycle. We're still in a very adverse spot in the liquidity cycle. So, you know, you

Starting point is 00:18:20 never want to use pure technical analysis, pure quantitative analysis. That's what we specialize in 42 macro. You never want to just isolate one variable when you're making asset allocation decisions. You have to marry, you know, obviously the technical analysis, you have to measure that with where we are in liquidity cycle. If we got to 28,000, let's call it four or five, six months from now and think we're closer to a Federal Reserve policy pivot, then I think you buy it with back up the truck of both hands. Now, the reason I sound cautious and concerned right now, irrespective of the fact that the level held, is the fact that, hey, the next line of support in this Fibonacci analysis is not till we get to 19,273. So if 28,000 doesn't hold over the next

Starting point is 00:19:02 few weeks and couple of months, then it's probably a very quick wash down to 19,000. That's going to cause a lot of problems, obviously, in the stable coin community, etc. So I'm not saying that will occur, but the probability of that occurring is still very elevated relative to where we are in the liquidity cycle. And so I think we want everyone to be aware of that risk. Yeah, I think that's a great way to kind of look at it. Talk to us a little bit more, not just maybe in this situation, but in general, you obviously have a model, you have kind of, hey, look, this could happen. If this doesn't happen, then you know, this other thing could happen, etc. How do you think about, uh, kind of entering into markets. So for a while now, a couple of weeks, you've

Starting point is 00:19:38 been talking about raising cash, right. And being able to, uh, kind of withstand the drawdown in prices of assets. Uh, and obviously those assets have drawn down if people had raised cash and that's a big if, but if they had, how do you think about the best investors in the world starting to redeploy their capital? Is it a, I'm going to try to time the bottom in one shot. Do they dollar cost average? Do they just wait for confirmation and then go back on the way up? Like how does that play out with many of the clients that you talk to on a daily basis? Yeah. So just in general, so I spent my career in the institutional finance community, you know, hedge funds, mutual funds, et cetera. And so the number one thing they do, there's a few things they do that

Starting point is 00:20:17 is very different than how the average retail investor invests. I'd say with respect to the question you asked, it's never making all or nothing investment decisions. You don't want to go from being max bullish to max bearish or very bullish to very bearish in one day or in one series of trades. What you want to be doing is making incremental bets based on the incremental changes in the data and the incremental changes in the probabilistic path forward for the growth cycle, the inflation cycle, and the liquidity cycle. And so at some point in the next several months or a couple of quarters, who knows? We have a reasonable view. We have an expectation in terms of when we're likely to see some of these changes. But the reality is you want to

Starting point is 00:20:54 start to incrementally allocate, get incrementally more bullish to the extent you have raised cash you're not panicking on a week like this week. And we've certainly given plenty of warnings for investors to raise cash because what raising cash does is it allows you to one, sleep soundly at night on weeks like this week or days, you know, like what we've observed in the last 24 to 48 hours. But most importantly, it allows you to start taking bites on that. I tweeted out this morning in our macro minute program. And thanks to everybody who tunes into that. You want to, it's not just about dollar cost averaging, particularly when you're an adverse spot in the cycle. You want to be thoughtful about the size of your DCA purchases. You want to be

Starting point is 00:21:32 thoughtful about the frequency of your DCA purchases. And so as someone who is committed to dollar cost averaging Bitcoin, if you had heard me talk about this three, four, five months ago, you could have slowed down those purchases, reduced the size of those purchases. And now you have even more capital sitting in your war chest to actually make better purchases and speed that up when we get closer to a pivot in the liquidity cycle. And that's what I mean by dynamic dollar cost averaging. Got it. And so when you see kind of this happening and people start to go back into the market, is there some sort of confirmation that they end up looking at or some sort of risk management? So a great example would be, hey, I'm going to start dollar cost averaging

Starting point is 00:22:11 now. Oh, wait, the asset continues to fall. And if it falls a certain percent, I'm actually going to get out of the market. Like how short term are these decisions and how much are people waiting for those confirmations versus they just take a really, really time horizon. Like, hey, man, I love the asset at, you know, $60,000 at 28,000. It sounds cool. If it goes to 25, that sounds even better. And if it goes to, you know, 19, then I'm gonna buy as much as I can, like how, I guess, sophisticated and, and kind of a minute detail are people looking at versus there is some intuition. I think it's overlaid here. Yeah. So I think there's a combination of intuition and also what you can afford to stomach as an investor. And, and, and so I think

Starting point is 00:22:50 with respect to something like dollar cost averaging specifically, that to me is a personal choice. How much money are you willing to risk and lose and at what speed or what frequency to ride out a bear cycle like what we're currently experiencing? I think just as a function of process, you never want to be looking for confirmation from markets. And the reason I say that is that markets very seldomly give you a very clear indication of what's happening. In fact, all of the best trades that I've ever seen in my career, either personally or I've seen other investors make and put on and discuss with them in institutional meetings, it's usually when things are not very clear. If something's clear when you put the trade on, that means the trade has

Starting point is 00:23:32 already probably worked and it's already probably very crowded. So don't expect some point in the next three to six months to get some sort of all clear signal that it's OK to go buy a bunch of Bitcoin. It doesn't work like that. What you're going to get is incremental evidence from the economic statistics that get reported that say, hey, we're getting closer to a pivot in the liquidity cycle. What you're going to get is incremental evidence from the change in valuations across asset markets to say, hey, we're getting closer to levels that might trigger other investors to start buying. And going back to that financial conditions chart, I don't think we're at those levels where valuation is broadly supportive to have people, everyone, including the largest

Starting point is 00:24:09 asset managers in the world, hold their nose and start buying. In fact, if you look at the flows data, a lot of them are just now starting to sell in terms of, you know, kind of exiting the equity market, et cetera. So again, you're not going to get an all clear signal, but what you are going to get is a lot of information along the way that can tell you to dial up or dial down the amount of risk you're taking and how fast you're taking that risk. And that's exactly what we specialize in helping investors with. Got it. And then last question I think I've got for you is as you're looking out at bonds, stocks, crypto, real estate, early stage venture, I mean, just all of these different assets, where can people hide? Let's say, let's hypothetically, things get worse and

Starting point is 00:24:49 worse and worse. Is cash still the best place for people to hide from the carnage? Or are there other assets that you think are worth people at least analyzing, whether they actually go ahead and add it to their portfolio? Like, how are you thinking about maybe the flight to safety if people think that that's what they should be doing. Yeah, absolutely. So I know it's sacrilegious to suggest that bonds are a place to hide on this program. So I'm not going to refrain from that because we haven't really fully pivoted on bonds yet. We're still looking for incremental, as we just discussed, incremental confirmation that it's time to start increasing our allocations to bonds. In fact, we have sort of three things that we're looking at. The momentum of inflation,

Starting point is 00:25:29 the inflation surprise factor in Europe. And then ultimately, we want to see some sort of market signaling confirmation from our volatility adjusted momentum signaling process across the rates markets around the world to say, hey, bonds are now a buy because then once they become a buy, that will replace cash as the preferred safe haven asset. But for now, I still think cash is king as it relates to, hey, look, assets are on sale and on the cheap, and they may get even much, much cheaper in the coming quarters. You want to have cash so that you can actually buy something. You don't want to be fully invested or somewhere near fully invested because not only are you going to suffer a drawdown that may take you years, years to call back from, you don't want to be the asshole at the bottom selling when everyone else who's smart and actually timed the cycle correctly, buying things hand over fist and setting themselves up and their families up to really generate some intergenerational wealth. I think there's going to be an opportunity here to do that, but you're not going to be able to take advantage of it if you're being cavalier with respect to the cycle.

Starting point is 00:26:28 Yeah. One of the things that I also think goes completely unspoken about, but I don't know why, is many people right now were fully invested because it was good times, right? And if they didn't have the opportunity or didn't have the foresight to sell assets and get out, or they don't have the stomach to just hold this for a long period of time, they want to buy more of the asset. one of the ways to quote unquote raise cash is to sell assets and get cash. But another thing is right now, I actually think there's tons of people who are looking around saying, what, what can I do? I might go drive for Uber. I might go and start a business. I might do some sort of side hustle. I may start consulting, like all these different things that I potentially could do because the goal is get cash and then use that cash to go buy financial assets. And so it can be, you know, rebalancing of a portfolio or selling assets. It also could just be a roll up your sleeves and let's get to work, right, and see if you can go kind of create some cash flow

Starting point is 00:27:26 that way, then use that to go and buy financial assets. And so, you know, there is no one way, I think, is the point, but also not just from getting cash. Also, there's no one way to allocate the portfolio, it sounds like, from the way that you've been evaluating this. Yeah, no, of course, exactly. And again, these are all specific individual decisions investors have to make. We all have to acknowledge and adhere to where we are in the cycle. If you don't understand where you are in the cycle, you're going to get your ass handed to you just as many investors have in the year to date. Now it's in terms of, you know, how much cash should I have? You know, how much, you know, risk should I be taking? What's the size of my DCA purchases? So what's

Starting point is 00:28:03 the frequency? Those again are individual investment decisions. If you're the kind of person who has a, you know, very low liquidity preference, you know, you can kind of ride this out and not, and not have to raise as much cash as someone who has an even shorter, a smaller liquidity preference, or sorry, has a much higher liquidity preference. I mean, again, it's, these are personal investment decisions and what, you know, we're never going to have a one size fits all answer for a question like that, but we will have a one size fits all answer for where we are in the cycles that will ultimately be the drivers of this kind of price action reversing. Got it. What, um, what, what can I send people to, uh, get the 42 macro, uh, research or follow you on

Starting point is 00:28:38 the internet? Yeah, absolutely, man. I appreciate that. So, uh, we're 42 macro.com. Uh, come check me out on Twitter, 42 macro D Dale. Uh, for those of you, you know, certainly not everyone who's watching has the uh budget to afford uh research and stuff so we understand that so we put out a daily piece called the macro minute where we're just going through kind of what's mattering in macro through the lens of our problem range and volatility adjusted momentum signaling processes folks love that it's just a good it's a good color you're going to want to have someone you know with you along this journey this bear market journey and so we're happy to contribute got it i i highly suggest people go uh at least get educated one of the best ways to do it is

Starting point is 00:29:14 with 42 Macro. So thanks so much for taking the time to join us and you're looking almighty smart there, my friend, given our recent conversations

Starting point is 00:29:22 over the last couple of weeks. So keep up the great work. Appreciate you, man. Thank you so much. All right, sounds good. Talk soon. Thanks. Thanks so much

Starting point is 00:29:29 for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition

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The Pomp Podcast - #959 Darius Dale On The Brutal Macro Environment

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