The Pomp Podcast - #968 Jennifer Schonberger On The Real Reasons Why Inflation Is Out Of Control
Episode Date: May 18, 2022Jennifer Schonberger is a Cryptocurrency reporter for Yahoo! Finance In this conversation, we discuss the current macro environment, what is the real cause of inflation, why the Fed can't stop a reces...sion at this point, Bitcoin as a risk-asset, Cryptocurrency regulation necessary for adoption, and ESG debates. ======================= Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 crypto browser. No extension required. Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support, and more. Download the Brave privacy browser at brave.com/Pomp, and click the wallet icon to get started. ======================= The Pomp Podcast is powered by BetOnline.ag, the world's largest sports betting, casino, poker and horse racing website that accepts cryptocurrency for wagering. BetOnline.ag gives you the ability to use Bitcoin and more than a dozen altcoins to make deposits and withdraw your winnings. There are no crypto transaction fees, and processing is instantaneous and secure. Visit https://promotions.betonline.ag/pomp and use PROMO CODE: POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus on any crypto deposit. BetOnline.ag is available in nearly every country around the world, making it the top global gaming destination for crypto users. =======================
Transcript
Discussion (0)
What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening
to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off.
Jennifer Schoenberger is a crypto reporter at Yahoo Finance. In this conversation, we
talk about Bitcoin, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, the macro environment, and much more.
I really enjoyed this conversation with Jennifer, and I hope that you enjoy it as well. Before
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All right, ladies and gentlemen, I'm super excited.
Our next guest is Jennifer Schonberger.
She is a crypto reporter at Yahoo Finance.
Jennifer, how are you?
Hey, good afternoon.
Hey, kudos for pronouncing my last name correctly.
Did I get it right?
You did. You nailed it.
I only practiced three times this morning.
uh let's get started with uh maybe let's do the macro environment first obviously uh you you are
a crypto reporter now at yahoo finance but i think you previously covered the fed and a lot of these
macro topics um one of the things i think is probably the the most noteworthy at the moment
is that the current white house administration continues to talk about inflation and uh it's
the number one domestic issue that they want to focus on they're they're very uh concerned about
it. And they recently have had this talk track around like taxation and its impact potentially
on inflation. I guess just like having covered it for so long, like what's your take? Is this
just like classic politics stuff? And there's like some, hey, let's talk about things that
we can kind of control and maybe people will forget about the cause of inflation or what's
going on? Yeah, I mean, I think at the very core, the issues that are belaboring inflation now
are not political, right? And certainly raising taxes isn't a way to combat inflation. The way
that that is done is through the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. And the inflation component
that we're dealing with now is not just a demand side issue. We do have strong consumer demand.
The retail sales report out this morning shows that the consumer is still hanging in. But there's
also issues on the supply side. And we've heard and talked about this ad nauseum with China still
shut down over COVID. That's creating shocks throughout the supply chain. And then, of course,
you have the war with Ukraine and Russia, which is creating a spike in energy prices globally.
And energy is used throughout our supply chains globally. So until you have that calmed down
And those factors are outside of the control of the administration and the Federal Reserve.
Until you see those factors calm down, I don't think you're going to see inflation calm down, though the administration will try to use different tactics as best they can in their toolbox.
And so when you think about this, there's obviously the political angle to it, and everyone's going to spin data and try to address it in any way that they can.
But the actual data of inflation has come under scrutiny just because there's a lot of folks who say, hey, I'm not feeling 8.5% or 8.3% CPI.
I'm feeling something worse than that.
And I think it's important to call out that not everyone experiences the same level of inflation.
Obviously, there's some people who have very high kind of expenses in inflationary goods.
Other people may have more kind of expenses when it comes to investment assets, et cetera.
But like, how do you think about inflation? And like, is 8.3% the right number? Do you think
it's higher? Do you think that there's other measurements that maybe you look at to try to
get a sense for it? You know, as you're doing reporting, like where does the inflation and
actually the accuracy of that number fit into kind of your analysis? Well, I mean, government data,
depending how you splice it and dice it can spit out different results. But I think that, you know,
we can look at the trend here, right? We should look at the overarching trend. We saw inflation
hit 8.5% in March. It came back a little bit to 8.3% in April. But if you look at the core number
month to month, which excludes your volatile food and gas, it was up 0.6%, which is actually higher.
So the notion that perhaps inflation is peaking out now, that it could be higher than 8% isn't
necessarily wrong. And by the way, even if it has peaked, as you know, there are some in that
can't believe, that's not to say that it's immediately going to come down, right? We've
only seen two interest rate hikes from the Fed, and the forces that I mentioned, continue to
persist. And all of these are going to take a toll on the economy eventually, if it persists.
So when you start to think about, you take out food, energy, the reason why people do that is
because they are volatile. But one of the stats that just blew my mind, I think it was 10.8%
inflation for food at home. And the reason why that jumps out at me in the latest inflation data
is just, it feels like it's unsustainable for the average American family, if that is anywhere near
the accurate number. And food outside of the home, I think was somewhere like seven and a half,
8%. I forget the exact number. But how do you kind of break out food or energy from these other
inflationary goods. And like, is it fair to say that, uh, actually food and energy are the two
most important on the day-to-day basis for the average consumer. But when we're trying to
understand the data, taking them out, tries to give us a better sense for, uh, a lack of
assets. So it's kind of like a, they serve different purposes to some degree.
Exactly. So you talk to anyone on the street and there's, they, they'll tell you, have you been to
the grocery store lately? Cause I'm paying for that. Have you been to the gas pump? Cause I'm
paying for that. Right. And my costs are going up. Prices are going up. So it is real and it is
dinging the consumer. And, you know, on the flip side, the reason we look at the core number,
to your point, is to try to take out the volatility. So if you're looking at like a
normal bell curve, if you will, you want to take out some of those outliers, some of that extra
noise to try to get a better look of really what's going on in that picture. That said, again, to
your point going back to what i just said those higher prices those higher costs are real for the
average consumer and you've got mortgage rates going up and the fed is going to continue to
raise rates so if consumers are looking to buy a home now that that's another piece of the pie a
piece of the puzzle here so um this is this is going to take a toll on spending eventually if
it persists and i think that um you know the consumer is hanging in right now you've got a
strong job market. We printed above $400,000 again last month, and that's helping things.
But if you look at some of the earnings reports out just today from Home Depot, Walmart a little
bit as well, people are still shopping. They are absorbing those higher prices, but the size of
their purchase is smaller. When you think about the Fed's response, which feels like they're
probably the only ones who can uh really have a material impact in the short term uh it does feel
like they are trying to destroy demand and uh they've talked tough uh for a few months then
they started to raise interest rates they've now accelerated that and we're at 75 basis points uh
their market is pricing in 10 interest rate increases uh you know 300 basis point interest
rate uh by the end of the year i guess just starting out like do you believe the market
and do you think that's actually going to happen or do you see something changing between now and
the end of the year? The market may be a little bit overblown. The market was pricing in the 75
basis point rate hike before the last Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell squelched that. So you can't
take what the market is pricing in as the Fed's plans. The Fed is planning to do at least 250
basis point rate hikes the next two meetings, as Fed Chair Powell said in his press conference last
meaning. After that, they're going to take a look and assess. At the same time, remember,
they're shrinking their balance sheet. So that's also taking liquidity out of the markets and the
economy. You look at the yield on the 10-year Treasury, and the market's done a lot of the
Fed's work for it already, right? It's sitting around 3%. I think today it's just below 3%,
around 2.9% and change. But the point being is that the Fed is on this. They're behind the curve.
they're well aware that they need to act quickly and aggressively to tame inflation.
To your point, I'm not sure I agree with the destruction on the demand side.
It is the demand side that the Fed does have power over to control and not the supply side.
So the supply chain shocks are not something that the Fed can control.
That said, demand is hanging in, right? The consumer right now
is okay based on, you just saw the retail sales number out today,
a strong retail sales number. People are spending at restaurants. People are going out. People are
traveling. So that gives the Fed some leeway to continue raising. Now, to the extent and degree
with which they will and whether the Fed can engineer what we call a soft landing, which is
raising rates to kill inflation while still maintaining economic growth and not plunging
this economy into a recession, well, that's a very, very tight, hard act to do.
When you think about the raising of those interest rates, we've obviously seen consumer credit start to tick up.
We know that mortgage rates are drastically higher than they were just a few months ago.
Do you worry at all about any sort of like systemic risk or any sort of shock to the system by raising those interest rates that maybe either people aren't perceiving or other things that you're hearing from folks who spend all day thinking about this?
uh at this point a black swan event is not apparent to me but you know that's what makes
it a black swan um we don't have a lot of the issues that we had going into the 2008 crisis
that's sort of what you were alluding to um when it comes to crypto uh we did see obviously a uh
crash last week uh in a stable coin known as us terra and then the sister coin luna and there's
been some spreading of contagion, I guess, selling pressure within the crypto space.
But that hasn't really created a systemic issue right now. There's not as many links that we know
of to the traditional financial system. Now, could there be something that we don't know about that
could create some sort of systemic risk? Absolutely. When you think about kind of the Fed
uh, and their task right now is difficult. Uh, they claim, or I think aspire to come to the
soft landing. Hey, we want to get inflation down, but we also don't want to necessarily
intentionally push us into a recession and punish people in, you know, dire financial positions.
Uh, is that possible? Are they able to have kind of this, uh, super sensitive controls of an
economy and some of the levers, or is it more so they can directionally push us up or down?
But then we just got to brace for kind of impact, if you will, in either direction when they decide to change course.
Right, exactly. And that's what I was talking about earlier.
It's very, very difficult for the Fed to engineer a soft landing.
It really hasn't been done in the past.
So there is a risk that once the Fed gets down this path, they could create a recession.
It is it is a real risk right now.
As I said, the consumer is hanging in.
the other possibility you could have is stagflation, where growth slows, but you still
have inflation. And it's something that former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has been talking about
recently. So we'll have to watch the data and see how this plays out. I know the Fed is closely
watching that as well, though the Fed is also, Fed Chair Powell has alluded to comments that
former Fed Chair Paul Volcker evoked. He is known as the inflation slayer, if you will. He jacked up
interest rates back at the tail end of the 1970s. And that ended up leading to that recession in
the early 1980s. You know, whether we see a replay of that, of course, unclear.
Yeah. Talk to me about Bitcoin. Obviously, you spend most of your time now thinking about
Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and kind of the entire industry. How does Bitcoin fit into this? It's
up materially since the start of the pandemic and a lot of the government intervention, but it's down
materially over the last couple of months. Where does this fit into your understanding of the Fed,
the macro environment, interest rates, inflation, et cetera? I think that the movements that we've
seen underscore that this is indeed a risk asset. You know, there was a notion that perhaps this
could be digital gold and it could be diversification for one's portfolio away from
stocks, from equities. But I think what we're seeing play out right now is that it's not a
haven. And so and it is a risk asset and it is highly volatile. So, you know, that's something
that investors need to be cognizant of if they're looking to diversify their portfolios.
And so when you see that and you talk to folks, whether it's on Wall Street or other types of
investors, is it fair to say that most of them were not participating in Bitcoin kind of pre-2020?
They started to actually buy Bitcoin, you know, in preparation for inflation. And then as we got
to an environment where the Fed said, hey, we're going to step in, we're going to actually increase
interest rates and we're going to conduct this quantitative tightening. They're really the folks
who are selling is, you know, kind of more the professional investors, the institutional asset
allocators, or is your understanding that it may be somebody else or a different type of market
participant that's actually the one selling here? Yeah, the retail player is actually a pretty large
player in the crypto space. But as you said, we have seen the pros come in here and they've led
to a lot of the magnification in the moves as well. And this also goes to what SEC Chair Gary
Gensler and other regulators are saying is we need more transparency in this space to make sure
that there is no front running and to make sure that these are fair and equitable markets and
that there is no fraud and there is no manipulation. A lot of this is occurring in a black
blocks in certain instances, and it is decentralized. When you start to think about
kind of Bitcoin, there's public companies that now have it on their balance sheet. We've seen
the country of El Salvador begin to adopt Bitcoin in a variety of ways. They literally just held a
summit, 44 countries just came and learned about digital economy, Bitcoin, a whole bunch of
different things. What are the milestones left, right, that you're looking at? And you're like,
okay, these are the things that would signal to me that adoption is continuing to occur.
Is it things in the on-chain metrics? Is it more public companies, more nation states? Is it
something else? How do you just think about a seat where you want to understand both the pro
and con arguments or the bull and bear arguments? What are the things that would signal to you that
it is a bullish continuation of adoption? So I think you need to see a regulatory framework
that's put in place because you're not going to get the volume of participants that you need
to stabilize the volatility so that this could be adopted as a form of a payment
um at this stage so that's not going to happen until you have that the regulation in place
number one um number two it remains to be seen whether the future of crypto is alternative
payments um or whether it's about the blockchain technology that underlies it and the applications
that we could see right you look at these nfts non-fungible tokens and these are essentially
like smart contracts right and so you're seeing them being used in you know the art world in the
music industry sports memorabilia and the form of collectibles but the underlying technology
could be applied to real estate transactions um to perhaps documents in the future like passports
right you want need to make sure that these unique identifiable documents per person um are authentic
so maybe you employ that nft technology um and then within the alternative payment space you
know remains to be seen whether perhaps stable coins would would become the alternative payments
versus a Bitcoin or Ethereum. And if those are just more, you know, investment vehicles or if
the emergence of central bank digital currencies comes in as well. I think there's still a lot of
question marks here. It's very early innings. It's the equivalent of, you know, probably like
1992 if we compare this to the rise of the Internet. When you think about regulation,
So let's take that topic first.
Obviously, the SEC has signaled that Bitcoin is not a security.
And there's a whole bunch of other things that may or may not be a security.
They haven't come out yet and definitively said, hey, this is how we think about it.
Going back to Bitcoin is not a security, what else in the regulatory framework do you think
investors are waiting to see before they would begin allocating to that asset?
So I just want to clarify here.
Gary Gensler actually believes that many cryptocurrencies, given the way the activities
are handled, should be classified as securities and regulated as such. There is the belief that
on its own, Bitcoin is a commodity, and it's certainly something that the Commodities Futures
and Trading Commission has said and is looking to regulate as such. So I just want to make sure
we're clear about that. Now, what was the rest of your question? Sorry.
In terms of Bitcoin, so Bitcoin is the only thing that they've pretty much said is, hey, this is not a security, right?
Everything else, there's obviously opinions, and I tend to agree with their opinion, that most of those things will be classified as securities.
But there hasn't been an actual ruling of any kind yet.
But when it comes to Bitcoin, once they say, OK, it's not a security, what else in the regulatory kind of framework do you think is important?
Or do you see investors waiting for before they would begin allocating?
Great question.
i mean i don't again i think they're looking for rules of the road in general um they need to make
sure they're in compliance they're very scared of the sec taking enforcement action because that is
really how the sec has regulated so far they have it have yet to put out formal rules uh legislatures
uh lawmakers have let yet to pass actual legislation around this even though there's
There's a lot of deep thinking going into this, a lot of proposals floating around.
So I think, you know, a lot of companies and a lot of investors don't want to get slapped with these fines and enforcement actions.
And so they want those clear rules of the road. And the industry has been pounding the table about this for some time now.
Yeah, makes sense. And then in terms of mining, what is kind of your thoughts there?
What do you hear as you talk to various people in the market about the enthusiasm for Bitcoin mining, other sources of kind of energy or just what are you hearing there and kind of what has stuck out to you?
Yeah. So, I mean, there's the argument that mining for Bitcoin using what's called proof of work takes an exorbitant amount of energy.
And it's something that Democrats in Congress are up in arms about.
And there's also a social movement now to try to embrace more environmentally friendly crypto.
Ethereum is trying to move to proof of stake, which would require less energy use.
If you look at some of these NFT platforms, for example, in the music space, there's a platform called OneOf.
And they use Tezos, which is less environmentally or is more environmentally friendly and less energy intensive.
And, you know, artists who are dropping NFTs on that platform are choosing that in part because of the environmental friendliness of it and the fact that fans want that and support that.
So I think that eventually there will be a movement towards more environmentally sensitive crypto, if you will.
Remains to be seen what impact that would have on Bitcoin, of course.
It also remains to be seen whether members of Congress would require, you know, certain limits on the amount of energy that crypto uses or if companies who are mining would have to purchase carbon credits to offset that.
Yeah, when you think about the environmental argument, one of the things that I've always kind of chuckled at is like, if we wanted to make the environment better, right, it kind of there's two things you can one, divert uses of bad energy.
And so things like the military, the U.S. dollar, et cetera, those systems consume way, way more energy.
But there's obviously a reason why people think they're good, right, either for defense purposes, for the economy.
Even if you go to things like refrigeration or clothes drying, et cetera, right, obviously people don't think that all energy consumption is bad.
It's just, hey, is the thing that you're consuming the energy for worth it, right?
I think kind of the question comes down to.
But then the second thing, too, is that I'm shocked usually when the environmental kind of conscious crowd doesn't get excited about things like the gas flare capture in Bitcoin mining.
So literally, you know, gas flaring ends up being one of the most destructive things we do to the environment.
And it's just a byproduct of oil and kind of natural gas activities.
But if we can figure out a way, like, how do we actually prevent damage?
I would have thought that they would be excited about that, but it doesn't seem that way.
And like, how much of the conversations that you have on this topic, or some of these,
do you feel like people are just kind of stuck in their ways? So like, hey, I don't think something
is good. And so I don't revisit my, you know, thesis, and maybe if gas flare capture as an
example, wasn't around five years ago, as a way to do Bitcoin mining, I just may not even be up to
speed on like, that's happening, versus people are actually on top of it doing their work, and
they still stick to kind of their prior perspectives. Yeah. I mean, that specific
technique hasn't come up ad nauseum in the conversations that I have. Maybe it's, I don't
know if it's a lack of awareness or if it's perhaps, you know, we have other ways we want
to tackle that we feel would be better, you know, unclear really to me. Yeah. It's interesting
because I think that, uh, and you're, I think highlighting, um, I don't know what the answer
is. Right. So let me just kind of clarify that with like, uh, when you discuss these topics with,
uh, folks, we recently had on a, uh, ESG analyst. And at first I was kind of like, what, what is
the ESG analyst? Right. And he's got a clean tech fund. And he's the reason why, uh, we had him on
the show was he said, look, I went and I did this huge deep dive on Bitcoin, uh, and it led me to
Bitcoin mining and obviously all the, uh, problems that he had read in the media, uh, and on Twitter
and in conversations with friends, et cetera,
being, you know, it's bad for the environment.
And at the end of his,
I think he spent two months doing this big deep dive.
He's like, I actually flipped it on its head.
Like I have this really strong ESG framework argument
for Bitcoin.
It's good for the environment.
It's good for all this stuff.
And it's like, he's unique, I think,
in that like he appears to have a very open mind
in approaching and evaluating the asset
and obviously came to a conclusion
that is different than many other of his colleagues.
I just don't know how do you get people
to have that open mind, right?
In some degree, like you can only educate people
who want to learn.
And so it's very interesting to kind of think through.
One other question I have-
Well, I would also just say that there needs to be
a lot of education in general, right?
Like a lot of people,
if you put the environmental piece aside,
in general, there needs to be a lot of education
for people to understand how to use crypto
before you see a lot more adoption.
Yeah, well, one thing that actually would be fascinating,
I think, for folks to understand is,
um obviously you work at yahoo finance there's a plenty of other uh large media organizations
and independent uh journalists and just lots of people who are interested in this space
uh but it's new and like the builders the entrepreneurs the investors they're trying
to figure it out at the same time that the regulators the journalists etc trying to figure
out where do you see most of your colleagues going and learning are they just learning in
private conversation from talking to people uh are there other things they're doing like i'd be
fascinated to understand how they go from, Hey, I don't know anything to, you know, now I've got
the information that I need to do my job because frankly, entrepreneurs and investors are trying to
figure out the same thing, right? Of just like, Hey, what's going on? How does this industry work?
And what is going to be the sustainable stuff over a long period of time? Well, I can walk you
through my own personal journey. Okay. I actually started, I went on MIT's website and Gary Gensler,
who's now the SEC chair, taught crypto at MIT. That was his big course. So I literally went and
watched his course from 2018. And then from there, you know, at Yahoo Finance, actually,
we have a lot of great resources on, you know, Crypto 101. So reading through that, and the
exchanges, Coinbase in particular, has a lot of great resources for Crypto 101 education.
So and then, of course, I do learn through interviewing people as as as we all do and seeing the issues that come up, talking to experts and just constantly reading from qualified sources.
Yeah, it's it's fascinating that that course, the MIT course comes up when I ask people this question quite a bit.
um it also reminds me that uh they have a i believe it's mit has a uh cs50 which is like a
computer science uh intro course and uh it's one of the most popular uh court like education courses
in the entire world um and so people who want to learn about computer science um they go and they
watch this and it's streamed online etc uh and i think that mit specifically has really figured out
you know how do we take information that's taught inside of the classrooms and open source it in
some way and so you know folks like yourself other colleagues people in the industry etc
can all go and uh and learn from uh from it so that's pretty cool uh my last question for you
is just looking forward what is like the one thing that you're looking at and you're like i can't
wait for this to happen or this is something i'm specifically uh you know looking forward to uh
occurring whether it's something in the regulatory side something in the actual industry itself a
certain investor uh coming into the market like is there something in your mind that you're like
this will be a big milestone and something to kind of wait for? Yeah, I think, as I mentioned
previously, once we have that regulatory framework in place, I think that that's going to create a
lot of clarity for the industry. And that really could be what unleashes things and where we could
see even more mainstream adoption. After that, I would just say I'm excited to see where the
application of this technology goes i mentioned nfts and the ability to be applied to so many
different industries and to create so much so much more efficiency uh and i i'm just really
excited to see where that technology goes i think it's going to be way more than just collectibles
yeah where can we send people to find you on the internet uh or find more of the writing that
you're doing over at yahoo finance thanks yeah you can uh people will probably just do jennifer
Sean Berger, Yahoo finance. Uh, if you Google me and you'll find me otherwise go to finance.yahoo.com
and search my name. Uh, and, and I'm there and I'm on socials like Twitter as well at Jennifer
isms. Amazing. All right, Jennifer, listen, thank you so much for taking that time to, uh, to join
us. I think people really enjoyed it and we'll definitely have to bring you back to, uh, to do
more in the future. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. All right. Talk to you soon. Take
care. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one.
Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify,
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