The Pomp Podcast - #981 Will Clemente On If Bitcoin Just Hit The Bottom

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the lead insights analyst at BlockWare. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto isn't made to just buy, sell, and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi,

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Starting point is 00:03:48 expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. We have the wizard, Mr. Will Clemente. Will, how are we doing? What's up, Jed? It's been a minute. It has been a minute. How are you doing, man? Chilling, chilling. What's going on with Bitcoin? What is your general kind of overview, 30,000 foot, what you're seeing? And then we'll get into some of the charts. Yeah, I mean, look, I think in these kind of current conditions,

Starting point is 00:04:15 You shouldn't be trading lower timeframes unless you have some like material edge and like order flow or whatever it may be that you feel like you have a short term edge in. But, you know, I think like trading, drawing lines on chart, I don't think it's very conducive in this environment when everything is really driven by macro. And you have the Fed come out, say a couple of words, and then all the lines you're drawing on a chart are just completely blown out. So I think in this environment, you should be more focused on the high time frame than ever. And, you know, again, unless you have some type of material edge, probably just be focusing on building long term positions and things you have strong conviction in. Gotcha. So let's start with some of the charts. I'd love to start with the one that talks about the price drawdown from the all time high. What are you seeing here? Sure. Yeah, I mean, this is a pretty straightforward chart. It's just telling you the amount of price drawdown from the previous all time high. As you can see, we're currently 57% down from Bitcoin's all-time high in November of last year.

Starting point is 00:05:12 Historically, we've seen Bitcoin get as low as 80% down from its all-time highs. We saw that in 2012 when Bitcoin drew down 90%, which is pretty gnarly. I mean, I can't imagine owning Bitcoin back then when you have no price history whatsoever saying that it's recovered. That was after the first major run-up in price. So those people had incredible conviction that held down 90% or were adding there. You had a drawdown of over 80% in 2015, as well as 2018. And then the other largest one was in March of 2020 when it drew down almost 80% from its previous high. So currently, we're down pretty substantially, but in Bitcoin terms, by Bitcoin standard, I should say, we could potentially see much lower drawdowns. But I guess the caveat to that would be we didn't reach that level of explosive upward moves in price that a lot of people, including myself at the time, were anticipating heading into the end of 2021. And we kind of got that cap off and round a top in price that didn't translate to the historical kind of parabolic blow off top that we've seen in previous market cycles.

Starting point is 00:06:27 So I think there's potentially argument to be made to say, well, because the top wasn't as explosive, perhaps we don't have that extreme 80% drawdown. If that were to take place, as it has in the previous three major cyclical drawdowns, that would put Bitcoin at like 12 to 14K if we went down 80, 85% peak to trough. So I personally will get to that in a moment as to where I'm seeing value. But I think there's somewhat of a strong case to be made that because we didn't see that parabolic price action to the upside, perhaps we don't see as much of a reflexive capitulation bottom to the downside. Yeah, that makes sense. And I'd love to talk more about that through the next few charts. But let's move on to the monthly returns chart that you sent over. What are you looking at here? yeah it's just uh kind of just going off the last one of showing you peak to trough drawdowns this is just showing you the month uh month over month change in price so as you can see this is one of the the worst monthly performances of btc uh in its history only dwarfed by a couple of those

Starting point is 00:07:31 times that we discussed a minute ago including you know 2018 march 2020 summer of last year some the obvious ones you'd expect. Gotcha. And then when we move on to the following one, which is looking at, I can't necessarily even read this at the top left, but it looks like Bitcoin over US dollar, right? Yeah. What are you looking at here? Yeah. I was just showing like short-term, we're just literally ranging going sideways. So, you know, nothing too exciting. I mean, you have like some short-term traders that will look to just, you know, buy the bottom of the range short the top of the range i mean maybe that's the type of you know trading that you find conducive for like scalper type of entities but that's not the type of trading again that i'm

Starting point is 00:08:13 looking to do in this type of environment um again i think uh especially in the newsletter we've never really focused on that kind of short-term you know trading mindset we've always tried to we view it as you know trying to help people strategically allocate to btc rather than you know trade it short term but you know i guess if you know if that's the type of trading you're interested in you could play the range but uh it was just really just putting the chart in here just to show that we've really just been sideways for two weeks straight well i think we have a good name the next name yeah i was gonna say i think we have a good uh a good meme to prove your point uh around this you're such a dumb animal aren't you directly trading right up there

Starting point is 00:08:53 yeah that's an amazing one did you make that no i don't know well i would send that to elon i got a feeling that might be posted yeah that's a good one pretty solid one yeah i like that one all right let's move on to the next chart uh i will say oh before before um i like this this uh this one meme i saw it was hard times hard times create strong memes strong memes create good times you know like the fourth turning but with memes instead of instead of men i think it's true we're seeing some some pretty solid memes coming out of this bear market yeah good people have more time they're not just posting price updates all the time. They have the ability to go make more memes, which is good. All right. So let's, let's zoom out and look at Bitcoin over a longer timeframe

Starting point is 00:09:40 now, which is this next chart that you have. Talk me through why you think it's important now to zoom out and look at some of this stuff from this angle. Yeah, I think, you know, I've been in this market for two years now, as of the next, you know, in a week, it'll have been two years of my anniversary or whatever of getting into BTC. And I think like my, my mental framework of how I've approached the market has evolved a lot in that time. And I think one thing that I've learned from just a high level is, you know, not overcomplicating things. And I think it's really boiled down to me to value and momentum. And this is like a mental framework that my buddy Avi from Golden Tree introduced to me about five or six months back. And it's

Starting point is 00:10:21 really kind of, you know, set home with the way I've approached the market now. um i think like you know the from a high time frame perspective you can set you know two thresholds for yourself one being momentum and one being value and so that's kind of how i i outlined the remainder of the newsletter this week uh so we'll start with the momentum side obviously we're well below a lot of these momentum thresholds but just saying this is where i'd be looking to get active as a momentum market participant in you know theoretically if we were to get up to some of these areas. So first we're starting with the 180 week exponential whole moving average. So this is a moving average that essentially just has more weighing to recent

Starting point is 00:11:02 price action. Whenever the, whenever the oscillator is increasing. So whenever the moving average is increasing, it's green and whenever it's decreasing, it turns red. It's pretty, pretty simple. And so it's basically a good high timeframe kind of momentum or trend following indicator to to look at uh and so as you can see you know whenever this flips red it's not good you'll see before uh 2018 and i posted this a few weeks ago when we were at like 36k the first week that we flipped red i was like yeah this is not great from a momentum perspective uh we're you know flipping bearishly in that regard and since then we've we've seen some continued downside uh and so again that sits around uh like around 47k that's kind of the the area of confluence i've

Starting point is 00:11:49 highlighted across all these things we'll go through a few more uh from the momentum side but that kind of sits around 47k where i'd be looking at theoretically get active as a as a momentum market participant but still you know sitting well below that gotcha and is there any indication around how long uh those time periods last historically uh i mean i i don't think like you know we have like three three time samples from from going back in the rest of this chart so But I think it's difficult to like look at three sample size and then make any conclusions going off of that. So I would just say instead of looking at time, just look at the action of what's being told by the chart. That's why we bring you on because you're smart.

Starting point is 00:12:31 All right. Let's talk about the chart here that has the 2022 yearly open marked on it. Yeah. Again, this is just, you know, somewhat of a psychological level. People look at yearly open the 2022 yearly open is at forty six thousand two hundred. we kind of deviated above that and got, you know, faced a lot of resistance when we had that push up to around 47K in April. That was also a confluence of rejection from the previous chart we looked at where we had a failed underside retest of that as well. And the next chart we'll look at as well, confluence there as well. You know, so again, confluence is key. And so, you know, back in April, we had, you know, several failed underside retests of all of these things

Starting point is 00:13:13 looking at as momentum thresholds. And to me, that was quite bearish at the time because showing you the market is failing to regain any type of momentum. And it just looks like a bear market retest in that regard. Short-term holder cost basis, something we've talked about a while on the show. Dylan's talked about a bit when he's come on. It's essentially the average cost basis of all the entities on chain that have been in the market for less than 155 days. That's come down a bit as you've seen short-term holders capitulate, meaning that their cost basis has come down and as well as some people average down as well let's brought that down to about forty five thousand thirty eight dollars if you want to be exact gotcha and then we have uh what's

Starting point is 00:13:54 the next one realized price if you want to talk yeah uh realized price sure so yeah so that was that was from a momentum standpoint see that it's about 47k when we move on now to the value framework uh we're talking about you know like extreme value like cyclical bottom type of areas for btc uh we currently see that as about 22 to 24k again not necessarily saying that that is most definitely going to happen just saying that if you know you got to speak in if then if then format right so if we got to that area i would be looking at you know that's where i'd be you know betting the farm and you know deploying all my dry powder uh just because it's so plus ev to deploy historically at some of these levels we're about to talk about so yeah first we'll

Starting point is 00:14:40 start with realized price uh this currently sits at 24 000 uh usd that's essentially the you know we talk about short-term holder cost basis but realized price is just the absolute aggregated cost basis uh of all the utxos on chain uh and so whenever whenever price goes below that historically that's served as an amazing buy opportunity um for people with kind of that multi-year time horizon and and by definition whenever price is below realized price what that's telling you is that you know all in aggregate market participants are underwater right because by definition you're below their cost basis um and so that's where you can start to see some major capitulation etc uh that's kind of where you want to be allocating historically

Starting point is 00:15:22 gotcha and then i know uh our friend z score is back so talk to me through what you're seeing here yeah i love this chart i think it's um one of the one of the best ones to be looking at for for what we're talking about here from from a value perspective so this is comparing it's another way to look at the chart we just looked at, but instead you're just taking a ratio of price to realized price. So whenever, again, whenever market price gets below realized price, by definition, market participants are underwater in aggregate. And so that's when you get into that green zone at the bottom. So if Bitcoin's price was to go below that realized price around 24,000, then that oscillator would move down into that green zone. The green zone historically is marked

Starting point is 00:16:03 basically generational buy opportunities for BTC. Um, so again, that's an area where if we entered that green zone, that's for, for me personally, of course, not financial advice, uh, where I'd be just looking to deploy all of the remaining cash that I'm sitting on, um, in case, you know, we, you know, in case we, we do enter that threshold. Um, and you said what that's at 24,000. Yep. Uh, at 24,000. And so, you know, that, that would be to, that would be to start going into that green zone uh you know if we started going below essentially i have bids ladder down from about 24 to 22k uh and the 22k comes from the next chart we're looking at uh i'm sorry that in a few charts in a few charts we're looking at sorry the order but um yeah down from down

Starting point is 00:16:46 from realized price essentially to the 200 week moving average uh the 200 week the 200 week moving average has basically caught every cyclical bottom basically to the tick um that's a pretty widely known moving average that is used in almost all markets, but for BTC has been a great signal. And so I have my bids laddered down from that realized price down to that 200-week moving average. Interesting. Okay, cool. And then talk me through the multiple here, the Meyer multiple that you're charting out. Sure. So this is looking at the market price compared to the 200-day moving average. Not to be confused with the 200-week moving average that we'll get to in a moment. The 200-day moving average, I think, sits at like 44K or 45K.

Starting point is 00:17:33 I looked at it about an hour ago. And so, like, as you can see, we're very close to where historically this has marked these generational buy opportunities in, you know, 2014, 2015, 2018, March of 2020, and summer of last year. Not quite at those, like, absolute low levels of those readings. But generally speaking for, you know, people who kind of average into the asset class, whenever we're below that green threshold at the bottom, that's a great time to really increase your DCA. Gotcha. And then you're so good that you're now taking the temperature of the price. So talk us through the price temperature chart that you got here. Sure. So this is created by my buddy Dilution Proof, who's another Bitcoin analyst that I met through Twitter. uh he created this metric honestly like five or six months ago and essentially it just looks at

Starting point is 00:18:24 the amount of standard deviations from the four-year trend of price uh four-year trend was was based on having and so as you can see um each of these price levels has you know caught these kind of like key pivot points for btc pretty well but especially that lower bound and so that lower bound currently sits at about 21k uh as you can see that that caught the bottom in 2015, 2018, 2020. And we're not quite there, but we're getting pretty close. And again, that's kind of on the bottom range of where I have my bids laddered down personally. Gotcha. And then I think these next two or three charts are the ones that you wanted to speak more about. Let's start with just the Bitcoin US dollar one that you have here tracking over from July

Starting point is 00:19:11 2016. Yeah. So we talked about it a second ago, the 200 week moving average. So this is that chart. As you can see, historically, you know, whenever we get near this 200-week moving average, it's a great buy opportunity. It sits at about $21,000 right now. Of course, we're, you know, a bit away from that, getting pretty close. But again, that's kind of the bottom range of where I'd be looking to average my bids down to. And then as well, I don't want to get, you know, too repetitive, but also the next chart sits around $20,400, very similar to that 200-week moving average. Uh, except this is the 180 month, uh, exponential whole moving average. So we looked at the 180 weekly exponential whole moving average as a momentum threshold,

Starting point is 00:19:57 uh, the monthly version I'm looking at as a value area. Um, so this sits again at 24, uh, 20,400, uh, the interesting thing to note about this, uh, aside from the fact that very similar to the 200 week moving average, uh, it's caught these kind of like cyclical bottoms, it stayed green the entirety of Bitcoin's history. So again, remember what I said at the beginning, the exponential whole moving average, when it's increasing, it stays green. When it's declining, it turns red. So this is a good visual to just show you that the monthly momentum of BTC is up only over time because this has stayed green throughout the entirety of Bitcoin's history. So this is like one of those type of indicators you

Starting point is 00:20:41 could look at whenever you're perhaps losing that that you know long-term conviction to show you that you know over over the long term btc is is up only i like that i like that uh okay last chart is the geographic premiums what are you seeing here yeah so um i was going to throw some like some other like various charts in here but i i hit the uh like the limit on the amount of images you could put in the newsletter this week so i decided this is like the most interesting of those this is looking at the all the trading hours based on like the geographic areas of what those those hours are you know essentially the trading hours for each of those areas so in particular looking at Asia Europe in the United States and so this in particular is comparing the Asian trading hours

Starting point is 00:21:26 to the European and United States trading hours and so as you can see over the last two years Asia's really kind of dominated this market a lot of people kind of associate the Asians with being kind of like the OGs of the crypto market. As you can see, they bought the COVID lows. They sold down increasingly aggressively into the top of 2021. They bought back all the puke from the United States and grew up at the bottom in summer of last year. They sold the initial pump off those lows, bought back the drawdown to 40K before that final push up to the all-time highs in November of last year. They didn't quite sell the exact top, but they sold extremely aggressively, the most aggressively they ever have in November to December of last year.

Starting point is 00:22:14 They bought back a bit at the lows in January and then sold down into the range highs leading up to this recent move down we've seen below 30K. And since then, we've seen that premium tick up quite a bit, which is what's been catching my eye because this is now the second highest that the Asian premium to other geographic trading hours has gotten since summer of last year. So it's something to keep an eye on. Of course, no group or individual is 100% accurate, but given the track record of how we've seen Asia perform relative to Europe and the United States based on these trading hour premiums, this is pretty interesting to me, especially if we start to get up to those levels of premium that we saw

Starting point is 00:23:02 in the summer of last year. Gotcha. So before I let you go, to me, it sounds, if I can just simplify all these amazing charts you put down, it sounds like we're trading sideways for a little bit of a period of time now. We're obviously declined tremendously from the top, but not nearly the 80% that we had seen in previous markets. And based on all of the charts and all the things that you're seeing from the 200-week moving average, 200-day moving average, whatever it is. If it gets to 22, 24 kind of range, that's when you as a long-term holder and a long-term buyer, someone that's dollar cost averaging to the asset, that's when you would get more aggressive. Is that kind of a fair way to look at this? Yeah, exactly. And I've been saying for a

Starting point is 00:23:41 while that we've been in kind of the lower 10 to 25th percentile on a lot of these indicators and that therefore it's a good time to average into BTC. But what I'm talking about here today is like where you'd want to deploy your dry powder for like your grandkids grandkids you know what i mean um and that's where you know all the the 20 25 cash that i'm currently sitting on you know i would be deploying um and you know i think it you know some people say well you know bitcoin's never faced a you know uh macro environment of you know monetary tightening or whatever i think you know at the end of the day you have to just you know make plus ev decisions And historically, these have been great areas to allocate historically.

Starting point is 00:24:26 So, you know, that's where I'm placing. That's where I'm going to be placing my bets and we'll see how it plays out. But that's kind of my view. And I think, you know, macro has been in the driver's seat now for several months. Just, you know, the liquidity tide has been pulling back. And with that, I mean, Bitcoin's been just trading tick for tick with the NASDAQ. We've seen Bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ hit an all time high last week on the three day correlation, which, you know, you don't love to see. Right. Because I think we all we all would love to see BTC be that uncorrelated asset.

Starting point is 00:24:58 We all believe it is. I think that's coming. I just think, you know, at the end of the day, you have you have kind of these short term correlation periods which are somewhat spurious, maybe for a few months. uh but then you know over the long term you have this adoption curve uh that you know lasts for the last you know 10 10 years or so uh and it's going to continue out into the future and that almost acts as a floor that continues to push up and up and up over time uh and i think what what's going to happen over the next you know call it 6 to 12 months is for bt for btc to find a bottom Um, you know, in a, in a, in a disgusting macro environment, you know, you're going to have like two types of buyers, either a, you're going to have people who are, you know,

Starting point is 00:25:42 taking like a contrary bet that, you know, they think that the worst, you know, markets are forward-looking, right? So you're going to have people that think the worst of the monetary tightening is, is, has been, you know, priced in or whatever. But then you also just have a, a group of like hardcore convicted crypto natives, right? And they're buying, you know, no matter what the current macro environment is, because they believe in the asset class. And I think this bear market, you're seeing that supply transfer to those individuals. And that's what allows BTC to have these aggressive run-ups is these

Starting point is 00:26:13 aggressive drawdowns, as silly as it sounds. Because what happens is whenever BTC draws down substantially, you get rid of all the tourists. And the only people that are buying when BTC is down 60% to 80% are people who have extreme, extreme conviction. And so when you have that supply concentration to those individuals, people buying BTC down 80% or down 60% right now, you know, those people aren't likely looking for a 10% return on BTC. And so, you know, they're looking for several multiples to the upside. And that's what really allows that supply concentration for BTC to run back to the upside. And I mean, that's, you know, we're seeing that in certain measures, but, you know, just from not even looking at the data, it's just like,

Starting point is 00:26:57 logically, like how Bitcoin has been able to have these big exponential runs. And so, yeah, I would say, you know, I wouldn't place, you know, your entire thesis on Bitcoin if you have conviction on what the current environment is macro wise. You know, I think you look at some of these things and you just say, you know, historically, these have been plus EV areas to allocate uh and you know it's almost like you know okay i'm either gonna buy here or you know things are gonna be different than they ever have and i think it's dangerous to say like this time is ever different necessarily because like the human psychology is always going to stay the same like at the bottom it's always going to seem like it's never going to stop going down at

Starting point is 00:27:43 the top it's always going to seem like it's never going to stop going up so uh that's that's a I guess rambling to wrap it up. Obviously, macro is important, but just saying, I think at some point you have to just look at these areas which have historically been super attractive and kind of put your balls on the chop block. I like it. I like it. That was very impressive. Thank you for helping us out today with the charts. I enjoy your email as always. Where can other people go sign up for your email and follow you on Twitter to make sure that they're getting this stuff immediately sure no thanks for having me on i know we ran a little over on time when you guys usually end because i was running last minute with the newsletter so appreciate you

Starting point is 00:28:22 accommodating let me on um if you're interested in the newsletter you could go to block or intelligence.com my twitter i guess is up on the screen uh and yeah i mean looking forward to to keep coming back on i know i haven't been on in a few weeks i was messing around i was at the beach twice and then i was back home so i'm glad i'm glad i'm finally back on with you guys and looking forward to seeing you again next week. We're happy to have you back, Will. I hope everything is good with you. I hope you're having a great time with your dog.

Starting point is 00:28:53 I hope you enjoy the nice long weekend. You have any plans or no? No, man. I'll be watching the Rangers game Memorial Day, probably just kicking back. I think I'm going to head home for Memorial Day to see the family. So it should be fun, but nothing crazy, man.

Starting point is 00:29:06 But let's go Rangers. Are any of your buddies making fun of you now that you're all in on Bitcoin and Bitcoin's price is dropping or they all learned their lesson when it ran up last year um no because i think my friends know like my conviction is so strong yeah i don't really care yeah like i think i think they know if it went to ten dollars i would like be the buyer of last resort or whatever so i you know i think like uh they're never i've had like a couple people be like oh are you okay oh hey man

Starting point is 00:29:38 I saw the markets, like I saw the market drew down a lot. Are you all right? And I'm like, dude, I'm still paying her. And don't worry. Yeah. That's a, it's like, come on, man. This is where you want to be buying. You know, you start, you start getting all your normie friends asking you like, dude, is this thing, is this thing dead? Like, I think I'm going to sell out all my crypto. It's like, okay, well, you know, this is, this is, these are not things that you see at the top. That's for sure. Yeah. I was going to say, it's probably even a better time convince some of them to join you because of uh your conviction in in in uh price drawdowns like this right they see that you're not messing around and that this isn't just uh fun and games or a job

Starting point is 00:30:13 so uh it's the inverse of when people are telling you you know last year to to buy safe moon or whatever bullshit that you know their flavor of the month it's when you're going it's when your barber tells you xrp is going to five dollars yeah it's like oh yeah that's these are not things you see at the bottom yeah exactly exactly all right man we'll have a good weekend thanks for uh coming on again and we'll talk to you next week for sure take it easy guys see you well peace thanks so much for listening to today's episode i really hope you guys enjoyed this one make sure you're subscribed on apple spotify or your favorite podcast player and if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the bitcoin or crypto industry we've got you covered head over

Starting point is 00:30:53 to palmscryptocourse.com we've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry it's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and i'll meet you guys for the next episode

The Pomp Podcast - #981 Will Clemente On If Bitcoin Just Hit The Bottom

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