The Pomp Podcast - #993 Dylan LeClair On The Bitcoin Miner Bear Market

Episode Date: June 8, 2022

Dylan LeClair is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system.    In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin, on-chain metrics, market structure, and what to expect from the rest of the bitcoin bull market.  Dylan joins us every Tuesday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Dylan references throughout the interview, go to "The Best Business Show: LIVE" YouTube Channel ======================= Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 crypto browser. No extension required. Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support, and more.    Download the Brave privacy browser at brave.com/Pomp, and click the wallet icon to get started. ======================= The Pomp Podcast is powered by BetOnline.ag, the world's largest sports betting, casino, poker and horse racing website that accepts cryptocurrency for wagering.   BetOnline.ag gives you the ability to use Bitcoin and more than a dozen altcoins to make deposits and withdraw your winnings. There are no crypto transaction fees, and processing is instantaneous and secure.   Visit https://promotions.betonline.ag/pomp and use PROMO CODE: POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus on any crypto deposit.   BetOnline.ag is available in nearly every country around the world, making it the top global gaming destination for crypto users. =======================

What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Dylan LeClaire is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management. He also writes a newsletter with Bitcoin Magazine. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, on-chain metrics. We talk about Bitcoin's price, the market structure, and what to expect in the coming weeks. I really enjoyed this conversation with Dylan, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by FTX US. FTX.US is the safe, regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. You can

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their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. But first, my friend Dylan, how are you, buddy? Hi, Pomp. How are you doing? I'm doing fantastic. Let's just jump right in. It feels like every time Bitcoin goes over $30,000 price point, somebody on the internet is a smart ass and says, Bitcoin's never going under 30K again. And then we just go right back under. How do you feel like kind of sentiment on the internet at the moment? Yeah, it's fine. I mean, I'm kind of just

expecting some consolidation and chop for the rest of the month, maybe quarter, maybe even a year. I mean, that's what Bitcoin does. It was the same kind of meme around 10K. So I mean, I'm embracing it. I love it. Consolidation is honestly one of my favorite periods. Although for like the industry, it obviously can get a little bit boring. Being a market analyst and a researcher, sometimes it gets a little boring during these consolidation periods, but I'm enjoying it. All right. We've got the first chart here is the network hash rate, which just continues to go up and up and up. What's this showing us? Yeah. So I guess the overall theme of my slides today is going to be a public miner analysis. We've covered this a little bit back and since

And these miners in USD and BTC terms have continued to fall. So I thought it'd be cool for the audience to kind of update, you know, this pretty simple and basic framework for how to evaluate publicly traded miners, especially as Bitcoin, the asset, continues to grow. And, you know, these publicly traded miners continue to entrench themselves in the publicly traded markets. So here's the hash rate, you know, like you said, currently at 209x a hash a second. I just thought I'd show the entire, you know, the chart since 2012 in log scale just to get some context. So, you know, someone correct me in the comments if I'm wrong here. But one terahash per second means a trillion hashes per second. A petahash per second means a quadrillion hashes per second.

And an exahash is one quintillion. So just for some context, we're at 209 exahash per second. um and so just it's mind-boggling just how much computational power and how much actual physical hardware uh is is maintaining or not maintaining but securing the bitcoin network uh and it's something that when a lot of people say you know bitcoin is based in thin air it's just internet money they don't really understand the hardware aspect and the physical infrastructure that's actually built out yeah it um it always uh shocks me if i ask somebody like what's the most valuable commodity in the world they'll come up with whatever answer and i say no actually i think

computing power is the most valuable commodity in the world and bitcoin is backed by computing power uh and that is a weird idea it's hard to wrap your head around it because it's new um but if you can kind of follow that logic of most valuable commodities computing power bitcoin's backed by computing power that means bitcoin is backed by the most valuable commodity and therefore it just furthers the thought process of bitcoin being kind of digital sound money it makes a ton of sense uh the next one you've got here is the uh bitcoin mean hash rate uh seven day average what's this showing yeah same chart just wanted to zoom in a little bit and also just kind of show the rate of change uh this is in linear terms uh linear scale and it just kind

of shows the china minor band right so we're still we're still actually uh i think 20 25 30 above uh the peak before that china minor band so uh you know we've we've highlighted this kind of v-shaped recovery a lot but it's just it's pretty remarkable given you know for the longest time i don't know if people remember uh you know everybody's kind of uh thoughts are so you know it everyone kind of the narrative changes so much on crypto twitter and and around bitcoin in general but for the longest time it was china controls bitcoin bitcoin mining is centralized in china and now that's seemingly gone away right everyone just kind of wrote that off um and bitcoin didn't die and we're still chugging along so uh you know i think it's just interesting to see this and i

I kind of expect this hash rate to continue to chug up, regardless of what the Bitcoin price does for the rest of the year. We've got minor revenue per tera hash here. What's this showing? Yeah, so this is kind of the basis of, again, it's an oversimplified framework for how to evaluate Bitcoin miners. But essentially, if you look at a lot of these mining charts, and especially these publicly traded minor valuations in Bitcoin terms, like we're going to do here in a second, what you see is that a lot of the charts in Bitcoin terms look very, very similar to to this uh hash price chart hash price minor revenue per tera hash is just minor revenue and you can do that in usd terms or btc terms uh divided by the hash rate right so because

of bitcoin's difficulty adjustment and because of its uh incentives uh that you know that mining offers right you can plug in a computer anywhere in the world or an asic you know mining rig and anything with just a satellite signal uh you can basically you know get uh digital sound money kind of a synthetic commodity in exchange for your energy and computational power, right? So we know this, but a lot of people don't understand that the difficulty adjustment is kind of the secret sauce here, right? With any other commodity, the more that you chase it, the more that you try to produce it, the more that you will produce.

Or, you know, with things like gold, right? You can, you know, the supply expands by 2% a year. If the oil price goes up like it has, a lot more operations are going to try to produce oil, right? The same with any commodity. But with Bitcoin, the difficulty adjustment limits the actual supply. So it's supply inelastic relative to demand. And so this is why evaluating these miners and looking at hash prices is very, very interesting.

So we kind of are in a hash price bear market, meaning that minor margins are going down. And I think it'll be really interesting to kind of look at the miner performance relative to Bitcoin itself, relative to these hash price bull and bear markets. Got it. And then if we take a look at the next chart you have here of Bitcoin and public miner stocks uh obviously bitcoin uh continuing to outperform all of these i think at one point uh we had discussed that the miners were actually outperforming on the way up uh is this what your expectation would be is that bitcoin would perform on the way down yeah so i mean essentially a lot

of these miners are levered bets on bitcoin right they may have debt on their balance sheet and just how publicly traded uh just how these you know public markets work um they're valued at a multiple of their current or trailing earnings right so uh when the bitcoin price goes down especially in usd terms the the expected earnings go down and the prices fall iris energy is actually the only uh is actually the only outlier here and has outperformed bitcoin and funny enough is that they just immediately sell their bitcoin so in a bear market they're doing quite well um but uh what's interesting here is this is since the all-time high so most of these miners are down 80 percent uh this is also coincidentally um well not coincidentally

just because of the data, this is during the hash price bear market, right? So hash price has gone from about 40 cents to currently around 12 cents per terahash per second per day. So we're going to look at now, we're going to look at the bull and bear markets in hash price. So when price is actually outperforming hash rate, and then we're going to look at these publicly traded miners in Bitcoin terms, right? Because Bitcoin is what we actually want. USD is great, but if we're investing in Bitcoin miners, we want to actually outperform Bitcoin itself. And so I think that's important to keep in mind. Yeah. One of the things that is interesting is the federal reserve, uh, well, the St. Louis fed, uh, recently published a piece, uh, that talks about buying eggs denominated in

Bitcoin and they thought they were trolling and kind of dunking on Bitcoin saying it's volatile. Uh, but I think that your point there, uh, about denominating the stocks in Bitcoin, denominating the eggs in Bitcoin, like you can feel that it is changing. It's slow. It's incredibly slow. But if I told you five years ago that the St. Louis fed was going to publish something talking about buying eggs and Bitcoin, you'd have laughed in my face. And now here we are. And if I tell you that they're going to write many articles five years from now about it, you'd laugh in my face, but let's see what happens, right? It's kind of a cell phone too, because they published the charts and the Y-axis,

or the X-axis, I'm sorry, was from 2020. But the actual data went back to like 2012. So it was quite funny. Ridiculous. All right. So we also have hash price and public miner stocks. What's this showing us yeah so here's i believe this is the hash price bull market uh and so here we see uh from from i think 2020 if you want to pull it up uh it's showing it's showing hash price going from i think the low was around seven cents to our 40 cents right and then we see the actual equities price in btc terms but the bottom pane shows the percentage so these are the publicly traded miners uh i believe it's off the top of my head i chose hut riot uh and marathon uh could be wrong. I can't really see it too well. But what it's showing essentially is that these miners

outperform Bitcoin by multiples when hash price was in a bull market, right? So when the price of Bitcoin is actually outpacing the growth of hash rate, essentially, that's what it's showing you. And so this is when you want to buy miners. And obviously, you need to you need to bake in some assumptions, whether price is going to go up or down or whether it's going to outperform hash rate. But if you can actually, you know, through a lot of data analysis, and you can, you know, a little bit of luck, let's be real. These miners are a great way to significantly outperform Bitcoin because of the debt on its balance sheet and because they're valued, especially by Wall Street, at multiples of the current earnings. And so when hash price is in a bull market,

mining stocks is a great place to be in with at least a percentage of your portfolio. Got it. And when you look, we've got another one that is the same kind of hash rate or hash price in public stocks, but it's going down. What's this showing us? Yeah, just same thing, you know, not to beat a dead horse. But this is, you know, basically, an interesting thing here is that hash price in BTC terms, right, we're looking at hash price throughout most of this slide deck today, in USD terms, hash price in BTC terms, is actually programmed, for the most part to go down forever. And that sounds sounds somewhat crazy. But because of the supply issuance of Bitcoin, and if you assume hash rate is going to continue to go upwards, the difficulty adjustment adjustment assures that the hash price will continue to trend downwards forever, that minor revenues will trend down forever, that the marginal production cost of a Satoshi will continue to go up forever as a kind of a digital commodity. And so for these publicly traded miners, that means that the revenues and margins are going to get squeezed for a long time. So it's very, very, very

challenging for really any asset, but including these publicly traded miners with valuations, with public valuations to outperform Bitcoin over the long term. And so this is kind of what this is showing. And yeah, so I think we're still in this kind of hash price bear market. But I think some of these miners are getting pretty interesting as kind of a value buy as we kind of trend in this bear market and the valuation continue to get crushed. When you think about a lot of this, obviously the Fed's in control. They're tanking markets. We see stock prices coming down the miners are not any more uh kind of safe let's say than uh than other stocks um are they holding up better though like because bitcoin has actually been holding at around

thirty thousand dollars uh is there a relationship between bitcoin's resilience and the inability to kind of fall even further like you know zooms down 80 90 some of these like really kind of high-flying growth stocks have fallen way more than bitcoin's fallen how do you think about the public miner stock price and its relationship to the Bitcoin price, but it's also its relationship, you know, to kind of the more macro environment. Yeah, I think in 2021, you know, there's a lot of talk about the everything bubble, right? You know, records amounts of liquidity, valuations went insane, you have monkey JPEGs trading at, you know, for millions of dollars, right? There was there was kind of ridiculous, ridiculous valuations everywhere. And Bitcoin,

no doubt was part of that. Part of what I like to focus on, and I think, Pomp, you kind of have a similar framework as well, is what comes after, right? So Bitcoin's obviously trading over 50% down from its all-time high. For Bitcoin, that's nothing new. I mean, it's done that five or six times throughout its history, probably a lot more. It's inherently very, very volatile. But really, what I like to focus on is this unprecedented liquidity regime, and now kind of with this liquidity tide pulling back uh and i think you know eventually we see some you know kind of a deflationary credit crunch uh that's what it looks like we're we're kind of in the beginning stages of um despite the consumer price inflation uh we're seeing asset deflation

everywhere what's on the other side of it right you know interest rates we've we've been in this you know four decade downtrend in interest rates debt demographics a lot of really really smart people have raised a lot of concern about this what comes next um and and a lot of people have continued to kind of talk about the wealth inequality and the societal unrest and so i'm kind of skirting around your original question about how are these publicly traded miners holding up well i think the reality is um they're going to do quite well because what comes on the other side of this uh in in my personal opinion uh maybe not financial advice but uh i certainly putting my money where my mouth is is i think bitcoin as a global monetary asset with what

we talked about as a digital commodity synthetic commodity with a production cost that's ever rising and the only absolutely scarce thing in the world is going to do quite well like that's my thesis i've said it almost you know every week on your show and whether bitcoin's a 60k or 30k that's my fundamental belief and so i think bitcoin's holding up quite well we're in definitely you know kind of the pullback of the liquidity tide um and so can it go lower yeah of course bitcoin could always get cut but you know by 50 percent uh but does that change long-term pieces for me? No. And so I guess that's my long-winded answer. The other thing that seems to be playing out right now is obviously the inflation story. 8.5% was the peak. Maybe it

goes higher. Maybe we have peaked. Remains to be seen. While we've been talking here, somebody tweeted out and said, damn, Snoop Dogg's got a personal blunt roller. He gets paid $40,000 of $50,000. And he quote tweeted and he said, inflation, the salary has gone up. And forget for a second what that person does. But the fact that we have people like Snoop Dogg, right? Cardi B the other day tweeted out and said, you know, when are we going to announce that we're in a recession? When are they going to admit it? What is the importance of these folks in a kind of culture that are celebrities, musicians, you know, athletes, et cetera, talking about inflation, talking about recessions like that this seems not what people would have expected so like how do you

read that yeah i mean it's certainly unprecedented right i mean we had since the great financial crisis we had a ton of monetary debasement but it wasn't really felt consumer price markets wasn't felt by the average the average joe it just kind of nestled itself uh in the bond market in real estate markets in the in the equity markets and so now it's showing up at the gas pump it's showing out of the in the shelves and the grocery store and people are really taking note and upset about it, right? So that's why there's kind of the political pressure on the establishment, on Jerome Powell to do something about it. And unfortunately, it's kind of interesting because monetary policy, you know, for shattered supply chains and, you know, for

geopolitical tensions like Russia and the Ukraine conflict, it's really maybe not the best tools to kind of tighten monetary policy as we're going in, as we're plunging towards a global recession. And so, you know, it's definitely interesting to see kind of the cultural reaction to, you know, inflation at four decades high. And I think, you know, even though Bitcoin is 50% off the highs, I think it educates, you know, people on the need for a sound monetary instrument. And that's why, you know, people like me and you are continuing to just kind of beat the drum on this and kind of hold steady with our tune, right? When you start to think about the legislation that's being put forward by Senator Lummis and Senator Gildebrand. Is this important because

they're talking about it? Or do you think that it'll actually have an impact if we can get a very clear regulatory framework? We know exactly who oversees it. What is your thought process on how this impacts the market if it actually comes to fruition? Yeah, I haven't actually dug too far deep into the legislation. I know it kind of got leaked last night. But I think for the longest time i mean bitcoin's been regulated for for you know since basically mount gox like they've had uh some some kind of uh oversight over over the kind of industry but it's you know there's been some confusion about whether you know bitcoin's a commodity or it's a security is it the cftc or the sec like what regulatory body is is overlooking this industry and and really it's

just kind of been a bunch of regulatory agencies winging it and not really knowing and so i think I think oversight's good. I mean, I'm certainly not in favor of anything that's too harsh or, you know, to kind of, I don't want anyone to stamp down on innovation, but certainly, you know, oversight and kind of just some more clarity would, I think, probably be good, especially, you know, following the craziness that we've seen over the last couple of months. It certainly wouldn't be too bad to get some more clarity from Washington. I definitely agree with that. When you start to think through also, I guess, that regulatory clarity should – I'll say should. We'll see. Should allow more institutions to allocate. does that flip us back into an environment though where the macro uh economy plays more of a role because we have people who treat bitcoin as a risk on asset and now we're susceptible uh to interest rates and kind of fed policies and things like that um and like how do you think about that dynamic because it seems like a lot of those individual organizations that uh purchase bitcoin in 2020 2021 risk off environment they all dump bitcoin bitcoin drops uh correlation to nasdaq

goes you know through the roof now there's a little bit of a decoupling a little less of a correlation and we may be going back towards more of like an individual or a pleb led uh you know dollar cost averaging a bitcoin like how do you think about the relationship between the institutions and bitcoin if there is regulatory clarity yeah um i this is why i kind of uh i'm really in favor of these kind of long consolidation periods or not in favor of them but i don't i don't mind them at all uh you know bitcoin just kind of consolidated around 10 000 for a couple years. And everyone and everyone that wasn't, you know, passionate about it, that wasn't kind of in the industry forgot about it, you know, thought it was dead. And all of a sudden,

Bitcoin's revived, and it's trading on 60k. And everyone loves it again, and that 30,000, it's dead again. And so certainly, that NASDAQ correlation, that risk on factor is still at play if the equity markets drop 10% next week. I think Bitcoin's not insulated, that's for sure. But I think that's kind of a natural progression of it. In a similar way that I think equity markets almost were monetized in a way, in the sense that, you know, savings, you know, savings in your bank account, weren't safe, the bond market wasn't safe, negative real yield. So what do people do? They plowed money into tech stocks, because it's, it's almost like treated like a savings account for them in 2020 and 2021. And so kind of the two, the two asset classes dropping

in tandem, to me kind of made sense. And so while I do think just because of the strength of the dollar and the network effect that the dollar actually has kind of being entrenched around the world. It's a global reserve currency. And the fact that it's the denominator of BTC, USD, you know, the exchange rate, there's certainly going to be, you know, Bitcoin is going to be impacted by interest rate hikes, interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening. And that's completely natural. But I think, again, to kind of put the long, you know, the long term end game view in mind, what's, you know, are they going to stop printing money? Are they going to stop debasing the dollar? Is it politically possible or feasible to stop monetary

expansion? And I think everybody knows the answer to that. So for me, that's why I'm perfectly content with just kind of biding my time and playing the waiting game. Yeah. When you start to think about many of the companies in the space, we've seen Coinbase, we've seen Gemini, layoffs, hiring freezes, rescinding job offers. There's many others that haven't been publicly announced, etc. What's your read on that? Like, will the development stop? Will people stop moving into the industry? How do you think of it? Yeah, I think, you know, there's certainly kind of there was some excess in terms of, I saw, you know, FTX today said, actually, we're not we're not cutting back anybody, and we're still in growth mode. And so, you know, it definitely

varies by company or by exchange. But yeah, I think, you know, if you look at, say, the monthly trading volumes of a coinbase right it's it's far off from its 2021 highs and i think that makes sense um so uh obviously there's there's some kind of uh you know individual decisions that had to be made by management uh maybe there was some you know ill-advised moves that were made during the bull market uh that they now have to you know change that we're in a bear i think it's natural um and obviously the volatility of of the crypto market in general kind of makes these ebbs and flows of the actual prices, but also of these companies themselves and the valuations of these companies, very volatile with it.

And so I think it's natural. It's obviously very tough to see people getting laid off. But I think, honestly, this is, for better or worse, this was actually the intent of the Fed and the intent of Jerome Powell is to kind of cool down the business cycle and actually kind of reverse the wealth effect, for better or worse. And so that's what's happening. It's not even crypto-specific. We're seeing this across the tech industry.

And I think it's kind of trickling down to other industries as well. It's quite interesting. Yeah. One other thing that I keep coming back to is this idea of lightning development. It feels like lightning is taking the long time horizon. And obviously, there's no equivalent of yield farming or a balance sheet full of assets that can just be used to incentivize people. It's very much an organic growth story.

Where do you see us currently there, right? And do you see any changes because of price or because of macro environment or anything like that? Yeah, Lightning's one of the most fascinating aspects of Bitcoin that seemingly no one talks about. It's just kind of a bunch of gritty developers under the surface, just kind of grinding in silence, just shipping product and shipping development. You know, kind of born in the depths of the bear market. It was actually released in 20, the beta was released in 2016. Segwit happened in 2017, which enabled the Lightning Network to exist. And then really, I think the growth, the actual growth in the building of the public network

was in 2018, 2019. So here we are in 2022. And there's actually a ton of business applications that are being built on top of it, the strikes of the world, et cetera, also kind of open source applications. So it's not going to steal the headlines. Compare it to the total value locked of some DeFi protocol that incentivizes you to use it with the native token itself. And it looks like it's a nothing burger. But it's actually, I think, one of the most important aspects in all of the industry in terms of Bitcoin's development and ability for it to scale. Bitcoin was never going to scale in the base layer. And I think that's where the big blockers went astray in the fork wars, thinking that all of the world's total transactions could scale in the base layer.

That's just not really feasible. So the Lightning Network and stuff that's being built on top of the Lightning Network is super, super fascinating. And I think it's one of the most undercover stories in this industry. Got it. And one last question I have for you before we let you go is, you tweeted yesterday, the producer price index by commodity and it's all commodities and uh it's high newsflash uh it's actually higher than where it was in 2008 2009 during the global financial crisis how do

you think of this uh and the importance of paying attention to it in the coming months yeah i mean this is obviously uh the story it's it's it's interlinked with uh the kind of the cpi inflation commodities are the story and after getting no love for for decades on end uh they suddenly matter again uh you know energy uh raw materials like that this goes into everything and and um i think really we're going to need to see the rate of change or kind of the the year-over-year readings on this start to come down i think it naturally will as the business cycle slows down but this is you know this is the biggest story probably in finance is that inflation cbi inflation says it's eight percent right but uh the producer price index or uh commodities inflation it's saying

inflation is not 8%. It's actually 15%, 20, 25%. This same reading in Germany is 30%. And so this is, you know, every bond investor in particular, every fixed income investor should be looking at this. And we've talked a lot about bond yields and the negative real yield environment. And this just kind of highlights the craziness of our world today. And so, you know, one of the biggest stories, unchecked monetary debasement and inflation, uh, and how it all ends is, is going to be, uh, quite interesting to see. I think we're living through historic times. Yeah, I am. Uh, I don't know what's going to happen. I don't think many people know what's going to happen, but, uh, I think describing this as a historic time that will be covered in history books is

probably the best way to put it. And one of my pieces of advice to people right now is pay attention, learn, take notes, pay attention to what's happening, because if you're young, you're likely to have many more boom and bust cycles in your life if you're fortunate enough to to kind of live long enough and uh you can learn a lot right now because uh uh some of the stuff we have not seen before and some of it is just a replay of history that's a that's a great way to say it yeah i mean i certainly certainly don't have all the answers just kind of learning with everyone else but uh definitely historic times and i think uh on the other side of this we'll look back and say uh it was certainly unprecedented yeah um all right where can we

send people to find you on the internet yeah uh just kind of today's slide deck was uh something we covered in last week's bitcoin magazine pro uh newsletter uh it's just kind of uh focusing on on the bitcoin mining industry uh macro backdrop derivatives on chain metrics we like to cover it all uh you can there's a free and paid tier uh so give that a look uh i'm hanging out on twitter uh for the most part uh and yeah uh that's where you can find me appreciate you having me on pop Amazing. Thank you, buddy. I appreciate it. I enjoy talking to you every single week. And I know people learn a lot. So I appreciate you coming on. And anyone who's not following Dylan on Twitter, what are you doing? Let's go get on it. We'll talk next week, buddy. Cheers. All right, later.

We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.