The Pomp Podcast - #996 Jamie Catherwood On Using History To Understand The Market Today

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off jamie catherwood is a financial historian he also works at o'shaughnessy asset management in this conversation we talk about how all of the new things in crypto they really happened before and you can use history as a guide for understanding the future i really enjoyed this conversation with jamie and i hope you guys enjoy it as well before we get into this episode though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by Bullish. Bullish has reinvented the digital asset exchange. They give you access to DeFi features like

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Starting point is 00:03:23 Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Next up, we have Jamie Catherwood.

Starting point is 00:03:49 Jamie's going to be joining us and he's going to be talking about financial history and how a lot of things going on right now, maybe in the Bitcoin and crypto world may not be as new or as unique as you think. So Jamie, how are you? I'm doing well. Thanks for having me on, man. Dude, I'm super excited about this. I've been looking forward to this all morning. You are doing, I'm going to call it a finance historian. I think it's probably the best terminology. And you've been now for, I don't know, months, years, going back and looking at all of these different times in the financial markets. And what I love about your work is that you tie it to current events and basically just remind everyone like, hey, everyone calm down for

Starting point is 00:04:28 a second, take a deep breath, like this has happened before. The most recent piece that you put out was around insider trading. So maybe kind of walk us through the scenario that happened recently and then why this isn't necessarily new compared to history of finance. Yeah. So first, I appreciate financial historian instead of just history nerd. Sounds more dignified. But you would probably know more about it than me. But as you said, this past weekend, I have the weekly newsletter and I wrote about the NFT or the OpenSea case that the Southern District of New York brought against the former OpenSea employee who was in charge of selecting which NFTs would be listed on the front page. And the DOJ has said that this person, Nathaniel Chastain, allegedly front ran basically these NFTs and bought them up before he selected these NFTs to go on the page, at which point their prices would kind of skyrocket and then he could sell out. And he was just basically using his inside information because he knew which NFTs were going to go on the homepage because he was the one selecting them to just kind of get ahead of other traders. And so I feel like this is a landmark kind of moment in the space, because even from the DOJ side and all the headlines on the DOJ site and the kind of press release that they put out, it's all centered around this being the first insider trading case that they've brought forward in the digital asset space. And so I feel like in a couple of years, this will be kind of a landmark moment that we'll look back on. And having that tie in also within a week of that bill being brought forward in Congress around regulation with Bitcoin, I just feel like now we're entering a moment where until this point, markets, crypto markets have kind of been like the Wild West, because there wasn't really clarity on how they'll be regulated or how strictly or really just anything.

Starting point is 00:06:29 anything because it's so new. And now we're starting to get a little bit more insight into what it could look like going forward. But I wrote this piece because I feel like today there are so many people that just view crypto and digital assets as perhaps just like a wild west to the worst kind of degree, where it's just kind of rife with scams, frauds, like rug pulls. And that's basically all it is because they hear these stories of kind of just crazy transactions and bad actors just taking advantage of this kind of lack of regulation. But this kind of period that the crypto markets are going through and digital asset space in general at a much more accelerated pace is really just what the equity markets kind

Starting point is 00:07:16 of went through during the 19th century and early 20th centuries. So I wrote about the fact that everything from rug pulls to kind of insider trading, market manipulation. I mean, that's gone on literally in the U.S., at least since the markets were kind of first founded. So in 1792, obviously, we all know constitutions ratified in 1787. And just a couple of years later, when the when Hamilton kind of first becomes the first treasury secretary and he's trying to figure out how to basically fund the government because

Starting point is 00:07:51 the nation was just riddled with debt from the financing the revolution. He, in his basically very first year, has to deal with America's first insider trading scandal, where literally his assistant treasury secretary, William Dewar, was this guy working at the treasury. He was a former Continental Congress member and one of Hamilton's close friends. And while he's working at the treasury, he's using this inside information to trade government securities, so government bonds at the time. And when he left the treasury, he kept this kind of ring going and started pulling up resources with some other traders. And he kept using his inside information from the days at the treasury to try and manipulate the market. And he tried to corner the market in this specific type of government bond. And eventually it all blew up and he went broke.

Starting point is 00:08:48 But it was this huge scandal where it's this first insider trading kind of scandal in the States. And it was basically at the inception of markets themselves. And so the Buttonwood Agreement, which is essentially the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange, was written under the sycamore tree on Wall Street just like, I think, three months after this William Dewar insider trading scandal, because these 24 brokers basically wanted to meet with each other and come up with what was essentially a trading club where they set rules and guidelines of how they were going to trade with each other to try

Starting point is 00:09:25 and avoid having another insider trading scandal occur. What's interesting, though, is that that was in 1792. And the next century was just filled with fraud. And all the types of schemes you see today occurring in crypto markets, not obviously only crypto, but the ones that you see in the news and people use to kind of put down the crypto space. There was a hundred and like 17 year period between that 1792 scandal and the first actual legal framework to avoid insider trading that didn't occur until 1909. And so again, you just have this century of frauds and scams that we can go into. But I just wrote this article as kind of a reminder to people that are looking down on the crypto space that, you know, all of these things that you are using as examples of why

Starting point is 00:10:22 crypto is just like one giant Ponzi scheme or whatever people want to characterize it as. These are a lot of the exact same kind of schemes that occurred in equity markets during their development over the course of the 19th century. So you just kind of got to give some time for regulation to occur and kind of principles to be put in place so that the market can kind of develop more organically and mature. And that's basically, that was the thesis of this article I wrote. How much of this is human nature doesn't change. And it's just like, of course, somebody's going to try to find an advantage and step over the line. And it ends up being almost like the manifestation of unethical behavior, uh, versus no, there is some difference in human behavior

Starting point is 00:11:09 now and, and, uh, we should look at it differently. Yeah, no. Um, I would say that the one constant in all of history is human nature. Um, my boss, who you obviously know, well, Jim O'Shaughnessy likes to say that markets change, uh, minute by minute, but human nature remains the same, uh, for centuries, basically since markets incepted. And there, he says human nature is the last sustainable arbitrage because I mean, there's so much data today, high frequency trading, et cetera. There's like those types of edges that you can go for, but a lot of those get arbed away because it's just such a competitive market and the sophisticated investors that exist

Starting point is 00:11:48 like with the technology they have, it's hard to kind of bet against them, but human nature doesn't change. That's the one thing you can count on not being arbed away because we quite literally make the exact same mistakes that investors on the Dutch stock market, which opened in 1602, make like the exact same ones. We're all still kind of succumbing to the same biases and errors as they were. Yeah. When you think about using history as the guide, how much of that is the actual support for the argument that like, hey, there needs to be more regulation here and that's how we get to kind of a cleaner system? I think that that is definitely the case. I think that

Starting point is 00:12:31 just overall, if you are, I mean, crypto is kind of like a wary space to get into. And using equity markets as an example, I mean, people that don't work in finance, it's kind of a daunting field to try and dip your toes in, you know, I mean, I'm sure we can all remember the first time we started taking an interest in the markets, like there's so much to learn, like ETF stocks, but like, it's just all seems overwhelming when you're starting with zero knowledge. And I think crypto is the same way. And for a couple of years now, obviously there's been a huge crypto community built where people are really into it, but there's still such a large percentage of the population that is kind of just wary of the space because they don't fully understand it. And so I think

Starting point is 00:13:12 if you have an additional layer to that, this other problem of there's no regulation. And so you're scared that you might be left holding the bag or you might get duped by a bad actor in the crypto space because there's just no real regulation, then you're going to be even more hesitant to participate in that space. But as regulation comes and there are kind of rules put in place to eliminate the worst of the bad actors, being able to take advantage of others, then I think people will feel safer about entering the market, which will benefit the crypto space in general got it when uh you think about um like the actual fraud that goes on uh one of the big things that people uh i think uh have been talking about is like what does this mean that nfts are

Starting point is 00:14:00 securities and i i've seen uh over the last couple of weeks you've talked about this idea of like there's securities fraud and then there's like wire fraud and its relationship with insider trading how do you think about like okay there's obviously an issue here the doj has addressed it um was there always the definition of like a security in over history or like when does that terminology become a thing and actually it was just like if you inside it traded in anything it was a problem so i think a lot of that came in the 33 and 34 acts um like the sec act and then blanking on the name of the 33, I think it might've been Securities Act. But I think that's where you started to get a real focus on definitions of what's a security and what's not

Starting point is 00:14:48 a security. And I think you've been talking about this more than I have. I haven't had a chance to go through it really yet, but I know that if I'm not mistaken with this new bill that's been put forward by the two members of Congress that they would have Bitcoin and crypto classified as a commodity regulated by the CFTC. Is that right? That's what they want to do. Yes. Yeah. So I think that would be interesting. That would have a lot of implications. I'm not sure on the exact details of what that means for insider trading, if it's a commodity regulated by the CFTC. But I do think that that's kind of the first step to institutionalizing the space, because you had a lot of the same stuff actually occur with,

Starting point is 00:15:32 if it is going to be regulated as a commodity. With the 1848 founding of the Chicago Board of Trade, there was a lot of kind of consternation around whether that was just speculating with these futures and options contracts being traded there versus whether it was actually kind of productive speculation because it served an economic purpose because farmers and harvesters could use that to kind of just level out the price volatility of their business and the price of crops. But originally, the government was looking at it as, oh, this is just another place where people are going to speculate and gamble basically on the direction of price movements. And so the founding of the Chicago Board of Trade and then it coming under eventually the CFTC

Starting point is 00:16:25 regulation was kind of helpful in institutionalizing the space and differentiating pure gambling speculation from serving an economic purpose. Yeah. When you think about bubbles, which is obviously the thing that, you know, most people it's like, oh, it's a Ponzi. Oh, the government's going to ban it or, oh, it's a bubble. I saw on a recent podcast that you talked about this idea of like a bubble triangle and the kind of this framework. Talk to us about that in terms of how people can actually evaluate is something a bubble or not. Yeah. So I would love to take credit for that. But it's actually from these two authors from Queens University, Belfast. They put this framework together in their book, Boom and Bust, which is a great financial history book if people

Starting point is 00:17:08 are looking to learn more about this. And so essentially, the framework uses the fire triangle, which is the three sides that you need to basically sustain a fire, which I believe are heat, oxygen, and fuel. And then you obviously need the spark to start it. But basically, if you remove any one of those three sides, then a fire will go out. And so using that framework for financial markets and the formation of bubbles, the three sides are marketability, speculation, and money and credit. And so for marketability, it's not necessarily like marketing, but rather the ability to easily buy and sell an asset. So comparing something illiquid like private equity versus fractional shares in a Fortune 500 company. And so having

Starting point is 00:17:59 something that's very easy to buy and sell and very liquid makes it much easier to sustain a bubble. And then speculation doesn't really need explaining. That's obvious. You just need people excited and willing to put their money in something and they're investing specifically, essentially for the purpose of capital gain, rather than trying to collect dividends or something. And then money and credit, again, you just need the cheap money, low interest rates to help sustain the kind of bubble. And then usually in this case, instead of a spark being a literal spark to ignite the fire. With bubbles, the spark tends to be either a move in the kind of political sphere, maybe a new government policy or a government initiative, or a technological

Starting point is 00:18:46 innovation. I'd say most of the time it's probably in the technological innovation space, but with politics, like you can argue things like the government's initiative around housing and the formation of 2008 crisis could be one of the kind of sparks that helped cause the 2008 crisis. But I think it's a really interesting framework. And if you think about each side, like the fire triangle, if you remove any one of them, it becomes harder to sustain a bubble. Like with money and credit, if the central banks dramatically raise rates, then you tend to have the bubble pop. Yeah. When you think about this market, like where should people in Bitcoin or crypto, go learn about financial history. Like when you think you're like, okay, I'm a young

Starting point is 00:19:33 person today. I don't have a ton of experience. It sounds like history should be a great way to learn more. Mark Andreessen, as an example, always talks about reading biographies because it's a way to kind of condense a ton of lessons learned from someone's life. And it takes you a couple of hours to read it. And you basically get to see some of those lessons learned. Where would you start that journey if you're that young person? So I wouldn't be doing myself justice if I didn't suggest my own site, Investor Amnesia, which as the name implies, is a testament to the fact that we never learned from history. And so I, on my website, have a weekly newsletter. I've written a bunch of articles. And I also have two online financial history courses, which it's funny you

Starting point is 00:20:20 mentioned Mark Andreessen because for my second course, I actually interviewed him and we talked about history and kind of innovation. And it was really, really educational. But if we're talking about bubbles, then my first course, which is called Bubbles, Manias, and Fraud, which is probably a good course to be reading or watching right now, is taught by seven outside experts who all come in and lecture for around an hour on a specific topic. And it's all online and it's lifetime access to the content. And if anyone's a CFA, it qualifies for professional learning credits, but that's on my site at investoramnesia.com. And if you go and you enter subscriber 20, then you'll get 20% off each course. But those are really helpful courses if you're just looking

Starting point is 00:21:14 to kind of get up to speed on an important topic like bubbles and manias and how they form the biggest ones in history, how they end. So I would definitely recommend starting there. Or if you don't want to do a course, then just going through my Sunday reads, it's where I write up some historical kind of context for something happening in the markets that week, and then a link to five articles from around the web and different kind of scholarly institutions that are tied into the major theme of that week. Yeah. When people are doing this, so whether they go through the training program that you have, if they end up reading a book, if they end up reading a podcast, how do you take information? You're like, okay,

Starting point is 00:21:57 I understand what happened in the past. And then figure out how to critically think about how does that apply to today? Because I think that's probably when I talk to folks about history, you usually get like history buffs who could recite every single data point in the world right and you're like that's great but like how does that apply to today and they're like brains uh just overheat and steam comes out of their ears uh but then there are some people i think that you're one of them that can read about history understand it and then make the connection to like oh here's how that applies today like where does that skill set come from or like how should people think about doing that so i think you have to start reading enough to be able to

Starting point is 00:22:35 form of you, like you're not just going to read one article and then know kind of how to apply it to today. I think also the mistake that some people make, um, and I'm, I've definitely made this before too, but the analogy I like to use for how you can use history is that history is like a compass. It's not like a GPS system. So just because, you know, you've read history and you've looked at market history, what happened in previous bubbles, that doesn't mean, you know, you have some like crystal ball necessarily, or you have a GPS system that's telling you exactly how to navigate markets going forward, just because you've learned from the past. But it is a compass where if you can see X, Y, Z happens in most of the major bubbles in history, like using

Starting point is 00:23:19 the bubble triangle, for example, if you see that these three things are typically what caused the formation and destruction of a bubble, then you can at least ensure that when you're investing today, you're kind of orienting yourself in the right direction using the compass metaphor to just make sure that you're facing north when you should be and not facing south. And so if you're using the bubble triangle, for example, and interest rates are rising and it seems like a pretty speculative period, then it might not be the time to, you know, put a hundred percent of your portfolio into highly speculative stocks, because you could say from history that this bubble triangle framework would indicate that the bubble and kind of good times might be coming at

Starting point is 00:24:07 least temporarily to an end. Got it. When you look back at history, is there one thing that you've been most surprised by? Like there's a lot of, you know, Hey, this time's not different. This has happened before, but has there been anything over the years that you're like, oh, wow, like that is shocking that that did happen before, or actually I can't find anything where this current event actually occurred. One thing that did shock me, which I guess makes sense because, I mean, it's happening today to an even greater extent in this age of information, but basically every moment in history, whenever there's a new technology introduced that provides investors with more information and data points, it doesn't really have any material impact on the kind of

Starting point is 00:24:51 average performance or like performance of the average investor. You would think, you know, if you have access to more data, you can make better decisions and therefore become a better investor. And that's just not really the case. What's also interesting is that when investors receive more access to information, again, you would think that, oh, you know, previously before the ticker, for example, investors would get investors at high quality exchange brokers rather would still get their price information like two weeks late. So their broker, you know, say you lived in Virginia, but your broker was in New York because the brokers needed to be physically close to the stock exchange because the ticker wasn't distributing that price

Starting point is 00:25:40 information across the country yet, the broker would send 12-day-old prices to the investor in Virginia. And it's like, what do you do with that information? And so it's only information on a small pool of stocks. But then after the ticker, and the ticker was then placed in states across the country, and they were all receiving data from the New York Stock Exchange, and they're linked up through cables, you would think that, oh, there's a much wider pool of data on a much wider pool of stocks. And so people are going to invest in more stocks and like a wider range of stocks. But the data shows that when that happened, people just still concentrated into the 20 most popular stocks. And so there are just a lot of instances of things like that, where you would

Starting point is 00:26:26 expect something to happen just based on what makes intuitive sense. Like you have more information on more things. So there will be more diversity in people's opinions and approaches to investing, but we all just still tend to like herd into the same popular things. Um, so when the Robinhood kind of day trading phenomenon was first starting, uh, during COVID in 2020, there was like that Robin tracker, whatever that site was. And it was just showing how much of the volume of trading each day on the Robinhood app was concentrated in like the same 10 stocks, which again, And you think about how much information we have today at our fingertips and on our phone, and we're all just still hurting into most of the same stocks.

Starting point is 00:27:12 Yeah. You recently tweeted this story about Winston Churchill, and it could not be a true story, but it just cracked me up. It says, Churchill was a terrible speculator when visiting his Wall Street friend, Bernard Barak, in 1929. He was given a trading desk. By close, Churchill cried he was ruined. Barak said Winston actually broke even. He had sold every time Winston had bought and bought every time he had sold. And so like this whole idea of like counter trading, uh, and, and almost understanding like, Hey, maybe I should do the opposite of what the emotional people are doing. Like, how do you take these types of stories? And let's just say that it is true regardless of whether it's not or not. Like, how do you take those and just say

Starting point is 00:27:53 like, yeah, it's just the exact same. Yeah. So, I mean, it really is. And I think that story. so the one thing i can say is that it is a fact that um churchill was a terrible speculator like that is true um there's evidence of he was like going broke and taking a bunch of advances on his books and then investing them in these like speculative things that often didn't turn out whether that specific story of baruch like contra trading every move that churchill did that day uh is again it could be apocryphal and it honestly probably is but the one other interesting lesson from that story, I think, is that just because you're an expert in one domain does not mean that you can just translate that to other areas. And so Churchill was obviously a master politician

Starting point is 00:28:40 and famous for a reason, but that does not mean that he would be a master trader, despite what he might have thought. But yeah, that kind of stuff happens all the time. One of my favorite examples is, again, in the 1600s, when the Amsterdam Stock Exchange opened, which was the first like modern stock exchange in the world. One of the tricks that speculators used to do was, if a speculator wanted to move the price of the Dutch East India Company stock, he would have a written piece of paper with like a huge buyer sell order on it, and then accidentally drop it on the ground, knowing that some other kind of day trader would like sprint over and pick it up thinking he'd found some like secret that he could trade on.

Starting point is 00:29:30 And so that guy that picked up the piece of paper would go run over to his kind of group of trading friends and say like, oh my God, you know, John or whoever just dropped this, he's about to buy like, you know, 4,000 shares of the Dutch East India Company or something. Let's all go buy it up. And so they go do that and then bid up the price. And then the original speculator that dropped that piece of paper on purpose then sells out. He places a huge sell order. And then those kind of day traders are left holding the bag. 200 years later in New York, one of the biggest robber barons of the Gilded Age, Daniel Drew, used to do the exact same trick in New York clubs near the stock exchange, he would go in and he called it the handkerchief trick,

Starting point is 00:30:16 where he would have, again, a piece of paper in his handkerchief. And then on his way out, he would mop his brow and drop the piece of paper on the floor so that people would go pick it up and trade on that information. And then he would do the opposite and benefit from those people bidding up or selling down the price of that stock in his favor. So 200 years apart, the exact same trick and people still fell for it every time. When you think of those things, should people learn from the past in the sense of like how to do business or is history a better teacher when it comes to things like regulation? I think both. I think with stories like that, I think that, so one of the takeaways of like, you know, all these stories are interesting

Starting point is 00:31:07 just from a historical perspective and they're pretty entertaining. But I think like some of the actionable ways you can think of how to apply that to investing today is, so I work for O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and we're a quant firm. And so we basically recognize this history of humans just getting in their own way, no matter how smart you are or stupid you are, you just tend to work against yourself because at points where the market is either up a lot or down a lot, your kind of emotional side takes over and just basically kicks out the rational part of your brain. And so how can you eliminate that? One of the ways is to just invest systematically according to a rule set where there's no human element. And so as quants, we have the algorithm

Starting point is 00:32:01 them that we set up because we have decades of backtested data and historical evidence and research showing what we think leads to outperformance over time, what kind of characteristics of stocks are indicative of outperformance. And then from there, you remove the human element by not trading. And so whether the market is going haywire, you're not actually having to make those decisions because you're just letting the computer basically trade systematically for you. And so you can kind of remove that possibility of you shooting yourself in the foot by getting involved when your emotional side of your brain starts to take over.

Starting point is 00:32:45 When you think moving forward, are there elements of reality or kind of the current times where you think is the best way to document it? Like many people say, hey, write stuff down as it happens and you can look back at your own experiences, your own thoughts, your own, um, kind of emotions or the other things that you do so that you can almost create your own, you know, personal history that you then can look back on. Um, for me, I would say writing the weekly newsletter is kind of my, my form of that. Um, I don't do anything else. Um, I mean, I write kind of like the stuff I do each day and things I need to do, uh, in a physical notebook. So I'm a very tactile person. Um, but yeah, for me, it's kind

Starting point is 00:33:27 of the weekly newsletter because that's me each week in real time putting together my thoughts and so in a couple years it'll be interesting to look back and see you know where i was wrong where i was right or what i never even saw coming i think that you're more right than wrong which is which is the whole key right yeah everyone's wrong but just being a little bit more right than wrong means that you got a shot uh i hope you're right yeah i hope so too uh where can we send people to find you on the internet uh or find uh the newsletter or or the programs that you run so on twitter i'm investor amnesia and my website is investoramnesia.com so there you'll find the newsletter you can subscribe my articles and the courses um one is on bubbles manias and fraud

Starting point is 00:34:15 where like jim chanos did a lecture on some of his like big shorts and the common uh common themes among them. And then my second course was on the financial history of empires, which is a fascinating subject. And for that one, I had Mark Andreessen, um, Neil Ferguson, the, who wrote the ascent of money. And he's like the goat financial historian, um, Mike green and some, and some others. Um, so both courses are really interesting. Um, and you can find them both online. I think that's fantastic. And, uh, he, he is the goat. I do think that he, uh, he probably is the out. Awesome. Listen, thank you so much, Jamie. I appreciate this. I, I learn every time that you write something. So please keep it up. I don't know how you have time to go back and find all

Starting point is 00:35:00 this information. I think that's probably the most impressive thing is that you, you have to be an expert Googler at this point in, in locating all the information, but I appreciate you put it together and we'll definitely have to bring you back as, as the world continues to just repeat all of the same things it's been doing for centuries. Exactly. Awesome. Thank you so much. All right. Sounds good, buddy. Talk soon. Bye. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one.

Starting point is 00:35:26 Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #996 Jamie Catherwood On Using History To Understand The Market Today

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