The Pomp Podcast - #998 Will Clemente & Mitch Askew On How Bitcoin’s Adoption Is Just Getting Started

Episode Date: June 11, 2022

Will Clemente and Mitch Askew are from Blockware Solutions. This past week, they released the "Bitcoin User Adoption Report" to give an update on user adoption on the network today, and where we are h...eaded from here. In this conversation, we break down the report. Will and Mitch compare previous technological adoption curves, explain why we are still so early, and tell us how Bitcoin will reach 10% worldwide adoption by 2030. ======================= BCB Group is the leading payment services partner for the digital assets industry. BCB Group provides payment services in 30+ currencies, FX, cryptocurrency liquidity, digital asset custody and BLINC, which is BCB’s free, instant settlements network for the BCB client ecosystem. Find out more by visiting bcbgroup.com/pomp ======================= The number one name in NFT domains and the world’s most powerful wallet are teaming up to bring something new to the crypto and Web3 world: That’s right, Unstoppable Domains and Blockchain.com partnered to create NFT domain names ending in .Blockchain. It’s the perfect ending to show that you’re a believer in a decentralized future. The Blockchain.com community can get one, for free by signing up for the waitlist here. Free NFT domains provide all the benefits of premium Unstoppable Domains, including fee-free, lifelong ownership. Don’t have a Blockchain.com wallet? No worries, these new domains are available to everyone for as low as $5. Either sign up for a free blockchain.wallet or visit Unstoppabledomains.com to buy your domain today. ======================= Crypto is all about giving the power back to the people and our sponsor, Pipe, is doing that in a big way. Pipe is the world’s first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for up-front capital. And with Pipe’s new API, companies with recurring revenue can build seamless, embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for Pipe’s new API right now is Compass Mining’s “Mine Now, Pay Later” which powers payment plans on bitcoin mining hardware so more miners can start or scale with a smaller up-front investment. Whether you’re looking for mining hardware or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out Pipe to access growth capital with: No loans. No dilution. No restrictive covenants or warrants. Just growth on your terms And right now, Pomp Podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars even millions fee-free for 12 months. Whether you are a bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers or a SaaS, DTC, or any business that has recurring revenue, sign up at http://pipe.com/pomp to start trading today. =======================

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente and Mitch Askew are from Blockware Solutions. They recently put out a brand new Bitcoin user adoption report. It's fantastic. In this episode, we talk about the growth rate of Bitcoin, the historical technology adoption cycles, and much more. I really enjoyed this conversation with Will and Mitch, and I hope that you guys enjoy it as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I first want to talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by BCB Group. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business
Starting point is 00:00:40 banking, cryptocurrency, and foreign exchange market liquidity for many of the world's largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB business accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations, and trading purposes. BCB's clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale with market leading value. BCB's Blink Network is the European crypto industry's first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. BCB's vision is to empower the global financial revolution through sustainable and innovative banking. You can find out more by visiting bcbgroup.com slash pomp today. Again,
Starting point is 00:01:20 And if you want to learn more, go to bcbgroup.com slash Pomp today. This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Domains. They recently launched an awesome feature to level up your Unstoppable Domains profile. It's called badges. They translate wallet activity into achievements. So celebrating, reliving, and sharing your crypto story has never been easier. Before, these stories were buried in transaction logs that were hard to read, making them difficult to find and understand as well.
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Starting point is 00:02:14 Crypto is all about giving the power back to the people, And our sponsor, Pipe, is doing that in a big way. Pipe is the world's first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for upfront capital. And with Pipe's new API, companies with recurring revenue can build seamless, embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for Pipe's new API right now is Compass Minings, mine now, pay later, which powers payment plans on Bitcoin mining hardware, so more miners can start or scale with a smaller upfront investment. Whether you're looking for mining hardware
Starting point is 00:02:46 or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out Pipe to access growth capital with no loans, no dilution, no restrictive covenants or warrants, just growth on your terms. And right now, Pomp podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars, even millions, fee-free for 12 months.
Starting point is 00:03:06 Whether you are a Bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers or a SaaS, DTC, or any business that has recurring revenue, Sign up at Pipe.com slash Pomp. Again, Pipe.com slash Pomp to start trading today. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments.
Starting point is 00:03:30 You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Will, Mitch, how are you guys? What's up, Pom? I'm doing great. How are you guys? For those that don't know, Mitch, this is Moist.
Starting point is 00:03:52 For those that don't know, Mitch is Moist. Moist is Mitch. Welcome. Thank you. It's good to be here. Started from the YouTube comments, now you're here. You're on the show and not as Moist. You're on the show as Mitch and delivering information. you know it's it was a kind of a childish name uh but you know it got me here so i'm grateful for it but listen will will's head's in a blender right now he's like i cannot believe that this all happened but well yeah they had no idea what they were getting into and they brought me onto the team all right let's go i had no idea let's go through this report um i think the best way
Starting point is 00:04:30 probably to do it is let's just go uh graphic by graphic and then we can kind of talk about what uh what each one of them is describing. The first one is this penetration of the target market. And it also has an overlay of time. So help everyone understand how you guys think about this. Sure. We can first start with just, you know, what is a technological adoption curve? So with all technologies that kind of move through these phases in the graphic here, we have them labeled as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. And so each kind of subset has a different amount of conviction. And, you know, you'd say some of the early innovators are perhaps much more forward thinking, more willing to take
Starting point is 00:05:15 risk, et cetera. And that allows them to reap great reward as the technology moves into the later stages of the adoption curve. One thing to note amongst, you know, this kind of takes place for all major technologies, this S-curve of adoption. Once these curves pass that 10% threshold, that's where you see really the most aggressive growth. And as we'll get to in a moment where we think Bitcoin adoption is, I think we're getting ready to hit that kind of main S curve of adoption, but we still are in that early adopters phase. But before we move on to that, we'll continue with some of these other historical technological adoption curves. That makes complete sense. And obviously, I think each one of these cohorts of people ends up spreading the
Starting point is 00:05:58 word to the next, right? The early adopters basically tell the early majority and you kind of continue to spread it. And then obviously another piece of this that I think usually goes unspoken of is like money is the most viral product in the world. And so naturally people are sending it to each other. They're receiving it from each other and ends up driving like this network effect. You've got another chart here from, from Blockware that says technology adoption curves, and you've overlaid a ton of other technology and their adoption curves. What is this showing us? Yeah. So something to think about here is like Bitcoin is growing on the rails of the internet. So it's going to grow faster than the internet, which spread on analog
Starting point is 00:06:35 rails and mostly word of mouth. But basically these, the big blue and pink lines is a weighted adoption curve of all the other past technology adoptions. And that's what we use to apply to forecast the future adoption of Bitcoin. Got it. And so when you look at something like this, like I think it is the landline, maybe it's the green line, the one that's kind of taken the longest to go there. Is that mainly, it took a longer time because it was one of the earlier technologies. And then as each one of these technologies gets built, like you mentioned, Bitcoin is being built on top of the internet. We should expect these adoption curves to actually accelerate. I think that's correct. And as you just alluded to, when we look at the landline
Starting point is 00:07:14 at the lower end of the spectrum versus we look at, excuse me, like the smartphone or social media are up on kind of the upper echelon of these adoption curves. I don't think that's by coincidence whatsoever. And the reason is kind of what you just alluded to that you basically have before the internet technology spreading on these analog rails, very similar to like a dirt path versus spreading on the internet, which is analogous to like a super highway of adoption spreading. And so with that, with Bitcoin, very similar to like social media, it can spread much quicker because the rails that it's spreading on are much faster, let alone all of the kind of monetary incentives that we all know very well. But I think in this report, we tried to focus on
Starting point is 00:07:57 rather than convincing you what the value proposition of Bitcoin is. Obviously, there's several, including Bitcoin being the ultimate bearer asset, Bitcoin scarcity, it's decentralized nature, censorship resistance, all these different things that we talk about, the inevitability of more debt expansion in the fiat system. All these things that we talk about of what makes Bitcoin valuable, we decided to exclude from this report because we think there's been a lot of work that's eloquently been put together on describing what the bullish case for Bitcoin is. And so with that in mind, we really focus on this report of just the monetary network effects and adoption network effects that we believe Bitcoin has in context of why people
Starting point is 00:08:43 are adopting it. So instead of looking at, I guess, the way to frame it would be, why are people adopting Bitcoin? We're more looking at the rate of which they are adopting Bitcoin and comparing that to traditional network effects, because Bitcoin at the end of the day is a growing monetary technology. And so, yeah, again, kind of long winded answer here, but I think it's paired with social media in the basket of it's growing on the rails of the internet. I would make an argument that it's growing even faster because of the monetary incentives of kind of the economic backdrop of what's going to unfold over the next 5, 10, 15 years. But even out of that context, just saying that it's growing on the rails of the internet means that it should
Starting point is 00:09:23 be growing in that kind of upper at least 10th percentile of all these other technological adoption curves that we see here. Makes complete sense. And then we've got the Bitcoin user data, specifically cumulative sum of new entities. What is this showing us? Sure, I can take this one. So for this report, we decided to go with on-chain data for a few reasons, one of which is just kind of our bread and butter and one of the forms of analysis that we feel most comfortable with. The other one is we feel like this is the best way to get hard data on the user adoption. You could do things like look at exchange user estimates. There's some public companies such as Coinbase who discloses their user data, but then we have other private companies that don't have to disclose their user data. And we felt that by looking at the number of unique wallets, that was the best way to have hard data on what the user adoption growth looks like. With that being said, though, this does likely underestimate the actual value by a fair amount. And the reason is because one wallet or one unique cluster of entities that we're looking at here in this graph could actually be a custodian or an exchange.
Starting point is 00:10:32 Now, with that being said, though, we do want to just disclose that nuance. But with that being said, we do feel like the number of unique wallets at this time is still a very good proxy for the number of users and a good conservative estimate as to how many users are or have been on the network. So in this chart, we're looking at new entities. So new entities is solely telling you the cumulative sum of all the unique entities that have ever been on the network. and as you can see that's just over 253 million users that have ever been on the network and so the reason I'm emphasizing that word is because then when we next when we get to the next chart which is net entities growth or entities net growth I should say this is instead looking at the number of entities that are on the network now and so a bit of a distinguish between the two
Starting point is 00:11:22 because the former is looking at how many have ever been on the network this metric is taking into account the entities that have left the network and therefore is telling you how many are active, how many are on the network today. And according to on-chain data, we estimate that's about 30.8 million unique entities. And for our sake of the report, we're using this as our users metric. And again, we feel like this is a good proxy for the number of users of the network, although it likely underestimates the value if you are including exchange users or users of custodians. And in the future, our view on this being a good enough proxy for that user number, the real user number, will go down because we think over time less people will interact with the base chain.
Starting point is 00:12:12 But we do feel like the kind of the validity of this as a proxy for the number of people that are using Bitcoin is still very strong. Yeah, I mean, look, it makes sense to me. And your point about more and more users will start to use the Lightning Network or other layer two side chains, etc. may change the base chain. But still, there's a very clear trend here, that user adoption is increasing. And these measurements are probably the best that we have to identify that. You guys included a data point that I was actually, I've never seen anyone go ahead and take a look at. It's that 0.36% of the global population are users of the Bitcoin monetary network today. Walk us through this one. Yeah, this is simply taking that cumulative sum
Starting point is 00:12:55 of entities net growth and then dividing it by the global population, which is about 8 billion users. And I honestly, I expected this to be higher. I expected global adoption around 2% to 5% somewhere in that range, but still being less than 1% is incredibly bullish We already have, you know, El Salvador as a nation state adopting Bitcoin, and we've got Michael Saylor putting in billions of dollars, and we're not even at 1% adoption yet.
Starting point is 00:13:19 Yeah. And then we've got this like percent of global population, and you tried to actually forecast using the old adoption cycles or the historic adoption cycles. When I see something like this, I mean, it is pretty crazy to think about if this is accurate, which I think you guys are saying, hey, look, there's a forecast here. again, could be inaccurate. It's really hard to kind of assign these adoption curves. But if only 0.36% of the global population is actually on the Bitcoin network as a monetary network, there's a lot of people left to get on, right? How did you guys kind of come up with this chart here? Yeah. So with the past data, it wasn't until around 10% adoption that we had most of the data so up until 10 we're using the compounded annual growth rate of that cumulative sum of entities net growth and then from there we apply the past adoption curves and like for the reasons
Starting point is 00:14:13 we laid out before bitcoin we we kind of expect to grow faster because of all the it's just growing on the rails of the internet the speed of information and there's the direct financial incentive to adopt like you can see the benefit of early adoption like nominally for example if you if you were an early adopter of like the car or the internet you might have some increase in your efficiency and that's going to help you out financially but you don't see an actual number like i bought bitcoin at x dollars and i have gained 100x in in value just by being an early adopter like that that mental framework of like you can see how much you're benefiting financially is going to encourage more people to adopt it faster got it and then the last graphic that we
Starting point is 00:14:53 have here uh will you tweet out and said this is the ultimate bullish case for bitcoin in one simple Visual exponentially growing user growth juxtaposed with Bitcoin's pre-programmed increasingly deflationary monetary policy. And you've overlaid those two here. Describe it like kind of how you think about these two things and their relationship to each other. Yeah, for sure. So, again, this green line is, as Mitch just said, we use the CAGR up until that 10% threshold where we have the data for all the historical adoption curves. We then applied that historical data for the adoption curves that we have to Bitcoin's future projections of what we think we'll see the user growth at. And that's that green line. And then in the yellow, we have the supply issuance.
Starting point is 00:15:34 And of course, that's pre-programmed and is already set in stone. So we do know exactly what the supply issuance will be for sure. And so when you plot these two and kind of juxtapose the two, you get this really beautiful graphic, in my opinion, which is kind of a visual for the ultimate bullish case for BTC. And as you can see, we have an exponential amount of new users that will come in over the next several decades. And we still are in very early days. And as we believe, as we mentioned, we believe earlier in the segment, we think we've yet to hit that real S-curve of adoption. And then you pair that with Bitcoin's supply issuance becoming increasingly deflationary, which means if you combine the two over a long term, it kind of builds the perfect recipe for number co-op over the long term. And so with that being said, I think this is a very simple graphic for kind of illustrating the high level bullish case for a long term Bitcoin investor. When you think about the inflection point of users there, are there specific things that you all are looking for that you think can drive it?
Starting point is 00:16:37 Or is it just a matter of time and allowing a network effect to kind of do what network effects do and spread globally? I think number go up is the biggest factor there. I mean, that's personally what brought me into Bitcoin. Like last late, late 2020, I saw it going up. I'm like, what is this? And I think a certain amount of people who find out about Bitcoin actually do the due diligence and figure out the technicals and go beyond just the price chart. I think a lot of people just look at the price chart of Bitcoin. They don't dig in.
Starting point is 00:17:06 And anybody who digs in, they become a full-fledged Bitcoiner. Like Michael Saylor says, there's no informed critiques. So I think it's sort of like, does the price going up lead adoption or does adoption lead price? and i think i think it's uh price leads adoption because even if nobody else was to adopt bitcoin due to the increasing scarcity of the havings like every four years the marginal cost of production is going to double and even if it's just you you me and will buying all the bitcoin it's going to force the price up because i want all the bitcoin you guys want all the bitcoin so the price will go up and then adoption is going to follow yeah it is uh this thing where
Starting point is 00:17:43 price ends up in the marketing department. You have a decentralized entity. How does price going down affect that? Does that push people out and kind of churn users? Or what have you all seen there with the relationship between user growth and the actual downward price, given that the asset's volatile? I think what's interesting, I mean, you can go back, if you go back up to this entity's net growth chart, not the cumulative sum, but the one before that, this will illustrate what you're talking about. And as you can see, obviously in bull markets, that's, as Mitch alluded to, kind of the ultimate marketing campaign for BTC. And when the price is going up, it's the chart before this one, not the cumulative sum, just the raw value.
Starting point is 00:18:25 As you can see, in the bull market, you have more users coming on, but in the bear, that number does decline, although the cumulative value does go up. And that's just because retail investors, new market participants kind of lose interest, lose conviction, and you get a supply concentration back to those who are highly convicted in the asset class. But, you know, I think over the long term, the trend is clear that you have a growing number of new users, although, you know, kind of based on Bitcoin cyclicality, the rate of which that's increasing kind of fluctuates a bit. Yeah. And then when you guys think about mining as a part of this, obviously, hash rate has continued to increase coming out of the China ban. It's the strongest computer
Starting point is 00:19:08 network in the world. There's some geopolitical kind of shifting that's going on. You know, some people are very receptive. Some people are more abrasive. But pretty much the trend is up and to the right when it comes to hash rate. Is that what you would expect user growth and hash rate to move in tandem? So if all of a sudden we saw hash rate drop, we would see users drop or vice versa users drop hash rate would drop or is it you know uh not as correlated as maybe people may think just looking at it i think it's kind of like a chicken or the egg type of type of question of it uh because you know i think i think uh the price going up draws in the incentive for new people to come on and mine btc uh you do tend to see kind of this lag where after the bull run
Starting point is 00:19:52 that's when because there's a lag between when people order machines versus when they actually can get plugged in. So you tend to see this lag of hash rate coming on after the major price move. That's just kind of how it's gone throughout Bitcoin's history. So I would say, I think they're all correlated as to your point. I think the price increasing goes in tandem with the adoption. Although I think it's difficult to assign a certain value of price per user. And this is something we had kind of flirted with doing. And we're going to do a part two where were kind of applying this information to a price model uh we decided to just leave it with solely the the user data and you know the issue with that is you can do like a a very long-term kind of
Starting point is 00:20:35 mean but you know you could have like a you know the saudi prince could throw in a couple yards tomorrow and that's going to increase the price but doesn't necessarily mean that there's more users coming on the network um but i do think overall over a long-term uh kind of outlook that those two things are very much correlated and then as the price increases that draws on hash so i would just say it's kind of like a you know does the chicken come before the egg type of type of question and that you know i do think they're all they're all correlated though it's just hard to say you know which one which one is causing the other when they're all kind of you know causation of of the other so i i think um you know i i think back to your question about
Starting point is 00:21:16 like kind of the catalyst. I think it's difficult to say exactly like what the catalyst for BTC will be. I think there's a lot of kind of theorized catalysts for that kind of main S curve of adoption. But I do think the trend is clear is that you've got this network effect that continues chucking along and growing exponentially. And then at some point that's going to continue pressing up and up and up. And then at some point you're going to have some type of event that just releases that valve up and you're going to see that adoption just kind of reach escape velocity. I kind of think of every time we have one of these cycles and A, the price increasing as well as adoption, you know, increasing in tandem with that, you're kind of knocking on the ceiling. And every time
Starting point is 00:21:54 we come closer and closer to reaching that escape velocity, but, you know, finally, eventually we're going to push through and that's when we'll reach that kind of main S curve of adoption. And maybe that's something breaking down in, you know, the current fiat system or some type of geopolitical event that has people flock to BTC as a safe haven, which we didn't see earlier this year, which was a bit unfortunate with kind of the Russia-Ukraine situation. I think a lot of Bitcoiners would have liked to see Bitcoin be used as a geopolitical hedge more broadly. But I think one of those type of events could lead to that S-curve. But I think kind of the high level takeaway is there's a risk to owning BTC through volatility. And investing one-on-one
Starting point is 00:22:37 is you just adjust for volatility with position sizing. If you're uncomfortable with Bitcoin's volatility, you just make it a smaller portion of your portfolio. But I also think there's a risk to not owning Bitcoin. Because I think when you look at this kind of adoption projection that we have, one of the biggest takeaways that I would say is that whenever this does happen, it will happen quickly. It'll happen in likely a matter of kind of five or 10 years where you'll see that huge gap in increase and jump in adoption. And so I would say, you know, get off zero. And if anything, this kind of illustrates the fact that there's a risk to not owning Bitcoin in the same sense that there's a risk to owning Bitcoin through volatility. To piggyback on that real
Starting point is 00:23:20 quick, as far as catalysts, I would think it's definitely going to be some kind of break in the fiat system or some event similar to Canada or Russia this past year. And the optimistic view is that something happens like that and people realize like Bitcoin is the only thing you can truly own that can't be diluted and they flock to that. But then there's also the pessimistic view that when the fiat system breaks,
Starting point is 00:23:42 they will roll out the central bank digital currencies and people will sort of flock to that instead of realizing like Bitcoin is the best option. So we've got some questions from the audience here and I'll just kind of rapid fire shoot them at you guys and let me know what you think. Somebody said, how can you classify a unique user as getting off the network?
Starting point is 00:23:59 Would these just be dormant wallets or would it be wallets with zero Bitcoin in them? Yeah, exactly. So they're wallets that have been zeroed out and that haven't been used in X amount of time. It's, I don't know, the threshold for the amount of dormancy off the top of my head, it's in the report. But there's a certain time threshold
Starting point is 00:24:17 for how long a wallet isn't active and then paired with the fact that it's just zeroed out. And then they say, okay, well, that entity has been deemed dormant. Got it. And somebody else said, won't billionaires or others conduct speculative attacks on Bitcoin and then try to buy Bitcoin at cheaper prices? I'm not selling them my Bitcoin, so that's not really going to work. They can do all the attacks they want. They can try and buy and sell and manipulate the market, but they can't
Starting point is 00:24:45 change the protocol. They can't change 21 million. They can't change the difficulty adjustment. They can't change the halving. It's a moot point, in my opinion. Somebody said, any concern about miners losing profitability as time goes on? Patrick Ford asked that. I mean, in the short term, you are starting to see like miners margins get compressed a bit, and you are starting to see some selling both in the public market from some public miners, including like Riot. And then also in on-chain, we can see that some of the miners have been selling lately as their margins get compressed. But that's a pretty kind of typical Bitcoin bear market kind of dynamic that's played out. And you saw miners were kind of the capitulation
Starting point is 00:25:27 bottom that was put in in 2018. And I'm not necessarily saying that miners will be forming the bottom, but you are seeing that dynamic a bit playing out. You saw the hash ribbons cross recently, which kind of indicates that hash has been coming off a bit. It's when the 30-day moving average crosses below the 60-day moving average of hash. And then you've also started to see, again, that minor net position change metric showing the net change, the 30-day change in those minor balances dropping a bit, which perhaps indicates that, you know, their margins are getting compressed a bit and they're having to shave off some of their Bitcoin holdings to cover that. Max L. asked, nothing bad had to happen, like increasing mistrust in government, etc.,
Starting point is 00:26:08 for cell phones with the internet to be useful. Is Bitcoin's accelerated adoption dependent on bad things happening? I don't think so. And that's a very good point. And that's what I was kind of saying like, I think the adoption curve over time is kind of just this natural technological adoption curve because Bitcoin is just an amazing technology. It's a kind of zero to one invention in my opinion. So I think you just have this natural technological growth, but at the same time, it's built for bad events to happen in that sense, in the framework that the question is said. So I would say, I think you have this natural network effect that chucks along. And then eventually if we do have some type of event that could potentially be a catalyst in that sense,
Starting point is 00:26:46 So it would send Bitcoin into that, you know, hyper growth S curve phase. But I do think regardless, Bitcoin, just as a technology, will continue chucking along its exponential growth regardless. Somebody asked, what price are y'all backing up the truck for Bitcoin? Basically, how do you guys think about current price action? And are there certain things you're looking at there? Oh, man, I would say check out our segment, Pomp, and I did the last two weeks. We talked about that a lot. I mean, look, I think, you know, kind of piggyback on a lot of things we've been saying, like Bitcoin is in the kind of the lower 10 to 15 percentile for all historical valuation metrics.
Starting point is 00:27:23 I think this is a great time to dollar cross the average into Bitcoin heavily. Is it the Pico bottom? I don't know if you could you could necessarily say that given, you know, some of these metrics aren't at these full reset levels that will reach kind of reset between 20 to 24K. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is, you know, over the long term, if you think Bitcoin is going to do what we think it's going to do, does it make a difference buying between, you know, 24K and, you know, 25 to 30K? Perhaps the answer is no. I'm a bit greedy and I try to strategically allocate. So I'm waiting for, you know, kind of getting below realized price and some of the other indicators that we talked about on the show. But I do think broadly, you know, if I'm talking to my parents or whoever it may be comes up to me on the street, you know, I would say, you know, it's we're kind of in the one of the lowest regimes of evaluation for BTC in its history.
Starting point is 00:28:15 And with that, you should be allocating more heavily in your dollar cost averaging strategy if that's what you're looking to do. Makes sense. Somebody said inflation is just transitory is the name on YouTube said, will Bitcoin depeg from the dollar and it will look for daily users? basically at some point, will we not price Bitcoin in dollars? And people will just talk about it in terms of Satoshis or Bitcoin, or do you think there'll always be a dollar exchange price attached to it? As long as the dollar exists, there probably will be some kind of exchange, but I think more people are going to shift to pricing things in Satoshis. I know I already do. I know you already do Pomp. Well, I'm assuming you do. I think as more people realize that Bitcoin is the ultimate asset, they're going to start viewing charts like real estate and
Starting point is 00:28:56 equities in Bitcoin. And perhaps there still will be an exchange rate to the dollar if the dollar's around. But most people will use Bitcoin as their measuring stick because it can't move. One Bitcoin is always one Bitcoin. And also, if you're not consciously looking at something and saying this is X value of sats, you're also kind of subconsciously doing it just by realizing there's opportunity costs. So if you're saying, hey, maybe I'm going to hold back on buying this because I'd rather buy Bitcoin, although you're not necessarily saying this is worth X number of Satoshi. Subconsciously, you're saying that you think Bitcoin is more valuable than that. Therefore, you're indirectly pricing things in BTC. But I think as Mitch
Starting point is 00:29:33 alluded to, as more people do that, it'll become this organic thing that people price things in BTC. I think we're very far from not pricing things in dollars, including Bitcoin. But ultimately, as Bitcoiners say, one BTC is one BTC. Lisa Contreras says, a quick question for Will or Mitch, non-technical question, but how do you continue to help those around you understand the importance of Bitcoin? Most of my peers and even my kids think I am crazy for talking about Bitcoin. I wish I had the answer to that question. I try really hard myself. I mean, the best you can do is just sort of like hammer them, I suppose. But like at some point you just got to back off because like people, they're going to go to it on their own if they're curious. Like I think at this
Starting point is 00:30:17 point it's so it's viewed as such a risky asset for some reason and it takes a certain level of intellectual curiosity to to dig in like to in my opinion only takes two three hours of research to to fall down the rabbit hole and once you do like there's there's no going back like once you realize the technical aspects of bitcoin i think something uh that that's a really good resource is safety the fiat standard comparing the fiat system to as if it were like a shit coin i think that's a really good analogy, just pointing at how broken the traditional fiat system is, is in my opinion, the best way to get people to see Bitcoin as the answer. I think that's right. I think, you know, looking at what the problem is versus the solution, I think as Bitcoiners, oftentimes
Starting point is 00:31:00 you come up to somebody at a party or whatever, and you're like, hey, look, Bitcoin is the greatest thing ever. It's scarce, it's decentralized, whatever. People are like, okay, that's awesome. But like, why do I need this? Right. And so like, I think it's more important to to orange people to focus on the problem versus the solution because they're not going to understand the problem that the solution is solving if you don't do that um and and look i think at the end of the day you can only do what you can do right and i think like uh some bitcoiners feel this sense of like you know they're like noah trying to get people on nozark but you know at the same time it's like people are going to buy into btc at the price that they deserve and
Starting point is 00:31:38 although you should help everybody around you i think to some extent like you can only do what you could do you don't want to you don't want to annoy everybody in your circle right i think you kind of you kind of uh gently shell to not overwhelm people i think if you start just like you know going overboard just like talking their head off they're gonna be like okay well like this is like overwhelming and i just you know just dude like leave me alone i think you want to i think you want to like gently kind of just you know talk through it a bit uh explain explain the the the problem instead of the solution and then kind of let them like come to the the conclusion on their own as you kind of gently, gently shill.
Starting point is 00:32:15 So the last question comes from AWOC, says, any concerns on the centralization of minors to larger public entities or too much of hash being in the United States? Sure. I mean, I think that that's a valid long-term concern in terms of hash coming to the United States. I don't think in the same way that people were worried about China. I think the U.S. from like, you know, although I don't agree with like all the ESG FUD, but But I do think like the U.S. amongst other, you know, other regions around the world are going to practice higher kind of integrity around energy usage and just regulation in general.
Starting point is 00:32:49 And so I think you'll have much more transparency on that side. So I think that's a good thing. But long term, of course, we do want to see hash rate get, you know, decentralized across the world. We don't want to see the majority come to the United States, even though at Blockware we do personally see that as the best place to mine Bitcoin. But, you know, over the long term, I think you'll see, you know, natural incentives come up from from nations that adopt Bitcoin, including El Salvador as kind of one of the first dominoes. And and with that, you'll start to see hash migrate to those places as well, especially some of those those those countries that have cheaper energy. And to add on to that, that's this is why America is a really great place, because we have 50 different states. if new york wants to shoot themselves in the foot and not allow bitcoin mining okay texas tennessee
Starting point is 00:33:33 kentucky pennsylvania they're gonna be like all right come here like we want that business we want that capital so 50 different states that like you saw it with legalized marijuana like some people just say or some states just say no to that the federal government they do what they want to do and i think that's a really great thing as long as the states have sovereignty i don't think we have to worry about over centralizing in the united states but of course like mine bitcoin globally that that's the best option of course but uh united states is a great place just because of the political stability and the power. Yeah. It's crazy that we're living through this. It could be a once in a millennium type situation. So I appreciate you two doing so
Starting point is 00:34:12 much great work on this. The report looks awesome. I'm going to dig into it this afternoon. Where can we send people to follow you both on the internet and also to download the report so they can read it for themselves? Mitch, you want to go first? Yeah, you can follow me on Twitter at Mitchell hodl h-o-d-l but uh also follow the blockware team account at blockware team that's where uh the best bitcoin one-liners come from and uh the report i believe it was emailed out with the the newsletter so if you subscribe to the newsletter you can get the report well yeah sure thank yeah thanks so much for having us on pomp this is awesome and helping us kind of get a you know a little little pr boost after after releasing it this morning so uh you know it's a pleasure
Starting point is 00:34:52 talking to you as always if anyone wants to see the report uh i tweeted it out about an hour ago you can also go to blockerintelligence.com and find the report there whether you're subscribed to the newsletter or not but of course i'm going to say to subscribe but if you don't feel like you know subscribing you can still check out the uh the newsletter through through the website link but i uh i appreciate it everyone please go subscribe go follow these two uh moist going from the youtube comments to now mitch at block where man i'm i'm so proud of you i'm so proud of you this is awesome without you paul thank you well i i mean i just bullshit on the internet your course you know that's that's how i found out about the job and uh it worked out it worked
Starting point is 00:35:33 out it's perfect so all right fellas i appreciate both of you we'll definitely do this again in the future uh and until then enjoy it and let's see what uh let's see what happens over the next couple of weeks. Thanks so much, man. I'll see you next week. All right. Later guys. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time
Starting point is 00:36:10 period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

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