The Pomp Podcast - #999 Bitcoiners Are Not Selling - BTC On-Chain Analytics

Starting point is 00:00:00 what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano most of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast simply the best podcast out there now let's kick this thing off in today's episode will clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit down so instead i just break down all of the charts that he put together i hope that you enjoy this and please bear with me as obviously i'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as will but i'm doing my best to keep up so before we get into this episode though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. This episode is brought to you by BCB Group. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency, and foreign exchange market liquidity for many of the world's

Starting point is 00:00:40 largest crypto engaged financial institutions. BCB business accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations, and trading purposes. BCB's clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale with market leading value. BCB's Blink network is the european crypto industry's first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies bcb's vision is to empower the global financial revolution through sustainable and innovative banking you can find out more by visiting bcbgroup.com slash pomp today again if you want to learn more go to bcbgroup.com slash pomp today this episode is brought to you by

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Starting point is 00:03:32 particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Inflation came in at a 40-year high this past week. And Bitcoin, everyone wants to know, what is going on? Is it an inflation hedge asset? Is it a save haven? First, if we take a look at Bitcoin, we can see that it's trading just below $30,000 or so, which is down 2.83% over the last 24 hours. Then if we take a look at the actual network itself, we can see that the market cap of Bitcoin sits at $550 billion. The current inflation rate is at 1.76%. 90% of all Bitcoin has already been issued into the circulating supply. The real exchange volume over the last 24 hours is $3.8 billion. Miners have

Starting point is 00:04:17 been paid $27 million over the last 24 hours to continue to secure the decentralized network of Bitcoin. The GBTC premium is actually a discount. It's down more than 25% from its NAV. And of course, Bitcoin is down 57% from its all-time high. If we then go ahead and we compare Bitcoin gold in the S&P 500, over the last year, Bitcoin's down 20% and gold in the S&P are negative as well. But over a two to 10 year timeframe, Bitcoin continues to drastically outperform both of these other assets. Then if we take a look at the price, what we can see is that Bitcoin at this point has traded above this level for 507 days in its entire life. That means 89% of the time, if you had bought Bitcoin and held till today, you would be up in terms of US dollar value.

Starting point is 00:05:04 Then if we go ahead and we take a look at Bitcoin compared to other assets, we can see Bitcoin versus gold, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and TLT. Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate is 135%, drastically outperforming the other assets. And Bitcoin's five-year Sharpe ratio continues to dominate, sitting at 1.11, meaning that if you take Bitcoin and you put it into a portfolio, it has a number of advantageous properties. Now, of course, looking at the actual metrics of Bitcoin in terms of its network health and its comparison on a financial standpoint to other assets is helpful, but let's dig into

Starting point is 00:05:37 on-chain metrics. No one does it better than the team over at Blockware and Will Clemente. First, we can start out with a price temperature of Bitcoin. And to illustrate the significance of this current drawdown, what we see is that many standard deviations of market price is near a four-year trend. Bitcoin approaching that four-year trend, which sits just above 21,000. Next up, we can go ahead and take a look at short-term holders and the percentage of total supply and profit held by those short-term holders, it continues to retest its historical lows. Then we can switch and take a look at one of the lowest readings in short-term holder profit loss ratio. And we can see that we continue to sit firmly below the neutral level. As we take a look

Starting point is 00:06:20 at traditional bear market behaviors, we can see that short-term holders both capitulate and age past that 155-day threshold into long-term holders. And so if we take a look, looking at the on-chain cost basis. We see that on-chain cost basis coming closer and closer with price. Another bottom signal that they continue to watch is that they're looking at the market price pushing below the aggregated realized price. And so what you can see here is that it's getting close. The team over at Blockware doesn't want to sound like a broken record these last few weeks, but there's not much to do but simply wait. On the derivative side, they don't see anything really changing. The spot premium to futures has persisted for months now, and one of the longest regimes of which in

Starting point is 00:07:06 Bitcoin's history. Then if you take a derivative of premium, the aggregated funding rates for perpetual futures, those remain muted as well. Next up, if we take a look at hash price, what we can see is that the miners are essentially short hash rate, short difficulty, and long the Bitcoin price. And with that in mind, minor margins have been getting broadly compressed with hash rising difficulty rising and the price dropping if we go ahead and take a look at that margin compression we can see that it's led to some selling of inventory from miners something to keep an eye on and it will be expanded upon more in the mining sector in the future remarkably though the amount of bitcoin supply that hasn't moved in at least a year continues to climb

Starting point is 00:07:49 and now we are at an all-time high 65.5 percent of all bitcoin circulating supply has not moved in at least a year. And lastly, that Asian trading premium that we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks, it's starting to come down slightly and something that has been a good signal over the last two years and everyone will continue to monitor.

Starting point is 00:08:10 The team over at Blockware does a great job with the on-chain metric and I highly suggest that you go ahead and subscribe to their newsletter. And of course, you yourself using on-chain metrics or a variety of other tools can go look at the various data points on the blockchain yourself.

Starting point is 00:08:24 I hope you enjoy these updates and I'll see you guys next Saturday. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you're subscribed on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry,

Starting point is 00:08:39 we've got you covered. Head over to palmscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to palmscryptocourse.com to learn more

Starting point is 00:08:55 and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.

The Pomp Podcast - #999 Bitcoiners Are Not Selling - BTC On-Chain Analytics

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