The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin & AI Just Hit A MAJOR Inflection Point | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: December 6, 2025

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience, and he also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we break down the major forces driving markets today — bitcoin’s price action, accelerating institutional adoption, the latest AI developments, internal tensions at OpenAI, and an overlooked industrial company he believes will be critical to the future economy. We wrap with a sharp look at the Fed, interest rates, deflation signals, and why easy money is still flowing through the system. ======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp Disclosures: Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.======================Bitizenship gives Bitcoin-forward investors a fast, compliant path to EU residency. Our Bitcoin Dolce Visa lets you invest in a 100% Bitcoin-aligned startup and qualify for Italy’s Golden Visa with one strategy. Claim your free strategy call at https://www.bitizenship.com/pomp.======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit ⁠https://www.simplemining.io/⁠======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro1:50 – How to evaluate bitcoin right now6:29 – The AI boom impact on asset prices & macro environment11:59 – Deflation impact & Elon says will work be optional?18:25 – Evaluating jobs data in an AI-driven economy25:57 – The AI impact on the economy41:42 – Michael Burry & Elon’s view on the economy & the future48:16 – Where to find Jordi’s content

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What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a

specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. So I always get back to this thing with Bitcoin that I believe in. I don't worry about where it's going to be over the course of the next 20 years. I don't worry about the network effects. I don't worry about it being the only thing that doesn't have a moat. But the most important thing for people to leave from me today and this weekend, which I will cover extensively on my YouTube, we are at a major inflection point that to me is very similar to what ChatGPT did. What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this one, we're going to talk about Bitcoin,

its price, institutional adoption, and then we're going to get into artificial intelligence. What's going on with Nano Banana? How is OpenAI handling this? Their big code read internally. He's going to give you the name of a company that does something in the industrial space that he believes is going to be very impactful moving forward. And he explains why. And then we also talk about the Fed and Kevin Hassett and interest rates and what's going on with the deflation in the economy, but also easy money that's coming. All that and much more in this conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, I thought a great place to start. Let's start with Bitcoin. Bitcoin obviously has been very volatile. We've been out the game for

two weeks, so I feel like we got a lot to talk about here. But Bitcoin had dropped all the way down to $80,000, which is just under a $40,000 drop from the previous all-time high, but it's come back. We're now kind of $92,000, $93,000. And I feel like optimism, people are like, hey, was that the bottom? It kind of prices the healer of all bad ideas. But we also are seeing Wall Street not care about the price drop? There are announcements after announcement after announcement of Wall Street still wanting to adopt this asset, participate in this industry. How do you read price action and the continued Wall Street adoption of Bitcoin? I'm feeling this is a pattern. I come back from Maine. We don't see each other for a period of time and we dive right into

the pool. There's no foreplay. There's no nothing. So I hope Thanksgiving was good for you and your family uh it was good for mine uh okay bitcoin i think again and and we talked about this during the month um and i don't want to minimize the the drop but november was a historic month for the stock market as well uh people may not know that but i spent a good portion of my career on factors and uh growth value or the ones people know but but momentum. And when you take factors, especially a momentum factor, which we've talked about on here before, Bitcoin is very much correlated to momentum, but it's the long side of momentum. So whenever people hear factors, think of it as the top 10% of some factor relative to

the bottom 10%. And in this case, the long side of momentum during the month of November relative to small cap stocks, which allows you to kind of normalize the volatility, similar type moving things, had its worst drop since the great financial crisis. So you're talking about a sharp fall. Now Bitcoin fell as well. That wasn't the catalyst, but I think what people are going to have to get used to is this relationship between the retail part of the stock market and Bitcoin. Because I think the energy for Bitcoin comes from the people who have followed you for a long time. It comes from those people. It doesn't come from hedge funds. If anything, I think hedge funds are so skeptical that whenever they see a simple moving average

breakdown and they want to short something, Bitcoin gets a very crowded short. So if you take the hedge fund and the retail unwinds, you add that into what we were going through anyway, which was consistent selling from OGs, I think it made sense for us to go down. And we did talk, and I remember saying we could go down to 80. It wouldn't be a problem. We did. I think the bounce back has been quite impressive, but it's also coincided with the stock market going higher. One of the things I said, which I feel very strongly about, based on my views on next year in the stock market, based on my views on where AI is, there were a lot of AI bubble fears in the month of November. A lot of them were related to OpenAI, to NVIDIA, to CoreWeave, to Oracle. There

was a whole bunch of things going on where people were freaking out. I think people have to get back to the relationship of Bitcoin to AI. Now, where we're finished at this 92, 93, we're unchanged for the year. So I always get back to this thing with Bitcoin that I believe in. I don't worry about where it's going to be over the course of the next 20 years. I don't worry about the network effects. I don't worry about it being the only thing that doesn't have a moat. But the most important thing for people to leave from me today and this weekend, which I will cover extensively on my YouTube, we are at a major inflection point that to me is very similar to what ChatGPT did. So we're ending LLMs. And the reason this is important for Bitcoin from a where the money

going type thing, the fiat assets are dominated by seven, eight companies in terms of their market cap they're all in some way associated with ai but they're all associated with coding this is the year that vibe coding which everyone now knows his word was the chat gpt moment and part of the factor unwind part of the thing that has hurt bitcoin all year has been this move away from growth and when i talked about this a couple weeks ago there was the the negative comments were about oh now geordie's bearish on tech mobile i am so bullish on ai but i do believe that we are entering a new phase of ai which has nothing to do with the textual and software side it has to do with the physical ai side and i think it it started bitcoin's going to benefit next year

relative to growth stocks but this year it got caught up in the growth one of the things that i'm really interested in is um i'm always very cautiously optimistic about macro forces coming together. So you're trying to predict three to six months out in advance. What are these trends that are going to come together? And really what I think I've learned in my career is that you need multiple trends to come together to really get outsized returns, right? If you think about Bitcoin, you needed the trend of decentralization. You needed the trend of computing, like converting power into economic value. You needed the trend of money printing, like all these things came together and it was kind of like right moment right product right people uh from a consumer

standpoint were ready for bitcoin takes off and now you create trillions of dollars what seems to be happening right now is there's obviously the lack of trust in the institutions kind of all the stuff that's very well documented you have a degradation from a socioeconomic standpoint of a lot of people so now people are saying wait a minute the existing legacy institution systems people etc is not working i need something new some people go look for political solutions some people go look for religious solutions some look for technological solutions but you have bitcoin and kind of the rise of let's just call it financial infrastructure in a digital age all of that is coming to to head at the same time ai and robotics so again kind of automation right i

actually think the financial plumbing and infrastructure is automation to a degree so have this big automation trend meeting Kevin Hassett or whoever the next monetary kind of chief will be who's saying, wait, we have to go towards easy monetary policy. And to me, that really feels like as these things come together, that's the thing that pushes the stock market significantly higher. It's not just AI. Because just AI alone without the macro backdrop, you'll get gains as we've gotten. But I don't think that you're going to get the type of gains that people are promising from the like boom, right? It's kind of like there's an AI appreciation, which is nice,

but people want the boom, right? They want the, you know, how do we go up 50% over, you know, 18 to 24 months? And it's almost like the multiple trends coming together really is what is necessary to do that. Do you agree with that? Yeah, it's an interesting way to put it. And let me take some of the pieces you mentioned.

Let me take Kevin Hassett and directly connect them to Mamdani. Okay. Okay. So the Trump administration, Republicans and Besson believe that if they lower rates, that will help bring affordability back. That'll help the people that have been suffering the most. On the other side, you have voters voting for Mamdani, who's promising free stuff or something. You might disagree on the politics involved, but I think at the end of the day, they're kind of meeting in the same place,

which is we have a lot of people that are fitting into the Michael Green article of where's that poverty line now? Do people at $100,000, are they at poverty? Clearly they're not at poverty, but his argument on how difficult it is to live life at this point is directly related to the macro trends you're talking about in AI. It's something I fundamentally believe in is that the concentration of the Mag7 don't exist without the K-shaped economy. That group is causing the K-shaped economy. We talk often with people about the job market. ADP came out this week. We don't really have payroll numbers. They're on some coming back to market, but ADP- They weren't counting when the government was shut down.

I don't know if you saw the guts of the ADP number, but there's two things that to me are interesting. Number one, six of the last seven months, the ADP release has had negative jobs for small businesses. So go back to the K-shape. There's a lot of businesses, small businesses that are not hiring and firing. But the number for November alone was minus 120,000. Now to define a small business, that is zero to 49 employees. That's a lot of businesses that probably went out of business. And that's what AI is doing to the economy and will continue to do the same way that amazon disrupted the retail mall names and put the pressure on this because rates are high and not coming down fast enough donald trump is correct that this problem on the flip side you

have ai that's also disrupting and causing small businesses that can't compete with the behemoths who have ai and are kind of disrupting all of this so you've reached a point that on your point these macro forces they're all coming together and that is why when and i mean i'm getting into a lot of things that we could double click on but the genesis mission is so important because they they don't have a choice. They have to accelerate AI because on the other macro force is this race against China for AI dominance. So when people listen to this podcast, and I've had a lot of people on the hedge fund side that have gradually migrated here because we talk about a lot of topics that are important. We approach them from a different perspective because you're coming from

a different angle. We meet at Bitcoin. I think for people listening, one of the hallmarks of what you said on the one side, the financial digitization that's happening, the guardrails that are going up are directly related to all of the macro forces, whether it's the AI race with China, whether it's the job losses that are happening in the K-shaped economy, they're all linked together. The problem is for most people and what I don't think they fully grasp, AI is the most important force now of those two. And I also believe it's the solution down the road. So sometimes we talk beforehand, a few minutes before, your foreplay, as you mentioned, and uh the uh uh every once in a while i have an idea that i i want to get your reaction here live

um in my mind almost every single thing that would be good for the country is deflationary artificial intelligence deflationary uh removing people from the economy which again is very controversial politically but it does bring down housing prices it does reduce demand all this stuff right so the deportation etc yep very deflationary um if you go and you look at uh a bunch of these things automation inside of uh factories deflationary right you just keep going through all of these components as to like to upgrade us to modernize modernize us to get the economy running at you know four or five percent gdp growth everything is deflationary yep the fed policy while everyone is yelling and screaming about inflation inflation inflation what if

the administration and the economists kind of in their world are actually so worried about deflation that they are trying to race ahead and get some sort of inflationary aspect into the economy as a balancing act. Now, again, I don't know if I'm a big believer of like everyone's always playing 4D chess, right? Sometimes things just kind of fall in place. But it does feel like we probably have more deflationary forces at play in the US economy than people recognize or talk about publicly and so in a way you have to have easy monetary policy or you actually end up in a very weird bad place without lower rates and you know kind of capital coming into the economy is that a fair way to look at it yeah and what's what's uh what's funny about going down this path

and thinking about it is i um i listened to an interview with elon musk that came out over the weekend this is the one with the the guy i think his name is nikhil exactly okay i haven't listened to it yes okay it's a two-hour interview uh i love listening to elon musk but like when he's on the all-in podcast i get bored very quickly because it's like a joke fest this wasn't a joke fest because he's kind of a kid in a big way like he'll joke immature like uh humor right yeah so it's all a fart joke and you're like you're the richest guy in the world and then he's doing that but they do the interview inside a tesla um plant okay and it gets very philosophical so the person going to ask the questions is Indian, I believe. And he's talking about Indian entrepreneurs and

it's geared towards that audience, but it gets very philosophical on a lot of points. And so something you mentioned, which I just want to bring up, because he talks about the deflationary nature and he defines it that in the next three years, we will get to a point where the deflation will hit and it'll be measured in a way where you'll still have GDP growing, but money supply won't actually need to be growing. It gets into this whole thing of deflationary pressures relative to money supply. It's kind of, it almost sounds like a technologic,

a technologist's view on economics. Exactly. And to me, it's very important. I listen to these because I want to hear his view on things. Now there's like 10 to 15 provocative statements, which I'm going to go through in detail on my video this weekend because I'm like, this is good stuff. But here's a phrase, and I like to pick lines that if you think about them, they're deeper.

And I'll give it to you because it fits what you said. He said, work will be optional. So I like, like if we sat here and we went through, let's think about that. He's not saying all jobs will be lost. He's saying work will be optional. That is what I believe with AI. That is why my goal for the next few years is to help people start to use it, especially younger people, and realize that it's going to be an empowerment thing to be able to build

things with it. His point is the deflation is going to come. Robots will be able to make robots, and they'll be able to make everything that we need to do the stuff. The energy costs will go down. He talks about something Google's talked about, too. So if people haven't heard this, the reason the energy problem will be resolved, the data centers will eventually be in space collecting through solar panels. Google's talked about it.

He's talked about it. Google's talking about launching their first one in three years. The amount of energy that's in space with the cooling makes it natural for a data center if they can do this. So why does Elon Musk have Starlink? Why does he have SpaceX? Why does he have Tesla? Why does he have X, the cross section of all of these things? So the Elon Musk thing gets into this concept of the deflation is coming. But to go back to what Jeff Booth has said, this is the natural course of governments is they have to cause inflation to some degree. And part of that is by making asset prices go higher at the top end, and then at the bottom end, giving transfer payments for people who need money. So if you're going to do both of those

things, okay, we can't let stocks fall. And at the same point, we're going to give money to people that are not participating in this. That's why you get this inflationary pressure side to offset the deflationary pressures which come from innovation. And that's what Elon Musk was talking about. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. Looking for the best way to unlock your crypto's liquidity? My friends at Figure are exactly what you need. Being the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the United States

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We can build all the things that everyone else struggles to build. We are so good at doing some of this stuff. But I do think that it also comes to the jobs data as an example. So how do we start to use the jobs data in analyzing from an investment standpoint? in a way if you look at an individual company kind of microeconomics if a company is able to grow their revenue and do so with less employees that is not a negative it's a positive for the company because they are becoming more productive more efficient more profitable should be more valuable but when you look at the jobs number on an economy scale all of a sudden it was like oh

we're losing jobs that is a net negative now again there's the consumer you know kind of impact to that and are they spending do they have money all that but if it's good for one company it's good for two companies and three companies and 10 companies 100 companies and a thousand like there is this element of maybe that data point is actually telling us something that is different than when the takeaway people have and so i i almost go back and say like just say the data's right it's probably not but let's just say it's right the way that you use this data as a signal when trying to evaluate the health of the economy where profits will kind of coalesce in the market it does feel like it's changing a little bit and i don't have all the answers right but like

if all of a sudden the jobs data going negative is actually a sign that we're becoming a more efficient economy that's very different than the way economists look at it and i'm not claiming that that's the right answer but it does feel like that's part of the conversation now so one one of the interesting parts of what you said and again this gets back into a belief that i have about, you know, the concept isn't talked about anymore, but there are still rolling recessions happening. So when we say job losses, we said the R word, Tim Walls in disbelief. So small businesses are losing jobs right now. Now that is a net number. So if you walk down the streets of New York and you see a small hardware store or a small restaurant go out

of business that fits in those numbers, what you're not seeing is cursor and you're not seeing sylvia and you're not seeing these new businesses that are getting started at the same time it's just that those businesses are starting with very few people the restaurant has lots of people like the more people you have in a business the harder it is i think to thrive in ai so for the people who are traders out there uh when i made that comment about factors this is really important because you you brought up a point i think for the next few years people should think about zero job creation. I believe that the hiring thing will just go down. Small businesses are too small, like startups are just too small of an economy. So if you took everyone who's starting a cursor

right now and you added them all up, it's a very small number. But if you did something and said, what do those people use in their business? Do they use Microsoft or Google? Well, you know, they use Google. They don't use Microsoft. So Google dominates these small businesses. They're flexible, they're younger, they're agile. At the same time, you have these public companies, which are bigger. They have people, they have friction, they have bureaucracy. That is not good in a world of AI.

You wanna have the smaller things because you can grow rapidly. So what is going to happen is a rolling recession where a lot of businesses that are inefficient will go out of business that can't survive in a world where rates are still up here. It's a problem. 4% yields is still a problem for a lot of businesses

that have been struggling to survive. You've seen that with the private credit stress. The big companies, the banks, the health care companies, they're going to be more efficient going forward. Will they be doubles like NVIDIA was? No. They'll just grow at maybe 25% in terms of stock price. I think where people want to start to focus their attention on is something I've talked

about and something that I think we should spend some time on. The most powerful part of AI is about to happen. First of all, you're going to have this convergence of AI agents and vibe coding at the same time. So coding has become ubiquitous and is now as good as humans or at least close, or let's say as good as 90% of humans. At the same point, you have AI agents coming. So the ability of them to do the code and create things, which means the deployment from an idea to an app, the idea to making money has now changed. That means every public company that's built on code, I don't know how you value them three years out the same way you did. That's why growth companies that are based on code are going to have a hard time.

where I think you're going to see doublings. And I'm going to use one company as an example. Do you know what Corning does? No. Oh, like the big industrial company. Yeah. But you know what they make? I have no clue.

Glass. Glass, okay. So if you took their high price in 2006 and you took it to the low price in 2023, stock was unchanged. 2006 to 2020. 2023. 2023, okay.

The low of 2023, which was not like a collapse. It was unchanged. So even during that time period, it's done nothing. It's doubled this year. Why? It's doubled this year because they also, as part of their business, they're involved in optical fiber, which is part of the data center build out. But they also, the reason they've been so boring for so long is because they don't benefit from software. And this is the thing I want to say to people over and over again. NVIDIA makes a physical thing. It makes chips. It's not

a technology company. It's a commodity company. What is about to happen as we merge brains into physical machines is what's going on with Corning. And everyone who's a retail trader, who's been focused on Palantir and all these names, some of those names could go up, but I think if growth is not working, you want to migrate to some stuff where the flow is in front of you. Corning makes glass. What has hurt them has been autos. We're just not doing, there hasn't been an auto upgrade cycle. Yeah. And your iPhone, like we had a huge move from 2008 to 2012 because iPhones went smartphones grew to a billion plus in terms of sales computers ipads all of that stuff all of those autos phones uh uh computers are about to go through an upgrade cycle because if you want one

you want one with an ai chip in it and that ai chip needs npus which i've talked about neural processing units which are different than gpus the amount of physical things are going to going to go through the roof. So what Corning said in their second quarter of earnings is we've hit a springboard now, meaning their business has changed. For investing, it's a great word. Wow. When you say that word, no wonder you double in price. That was all related to the data center side. We've left LLMs, which are textual things, the cognitive brain. We're now getting into the kinetic brain, the physical side, the ability for data to transfer back and forth between short-term memory, long-term memory, making real-time decisions like a quarterback

back on the field with audibles. All of that stuff has to happen. It's the most interesting time I've ever had because Corning is a mid-cap company. The MAG-7 and the MAG-8, these are big behemoths. Most of them haven't done great this year. Dougal's the only one I think that's up more than 25% this year. S&P's up 16%, 17%, 19% total return. So you're left with a point that most of the mag seven actually underperformed this year and i think growth going forward is going to be very challenging for companies that have a higher multiples where i think a lot of these companies that make things that you can't do with code we need a lot of them everyone should go spend time looking at corning and then spend time in my video i'm going to go through a lot of these names but

this is a different part it's interesting that um as we see this kind of all play out everything starts to touch ai like like there's a a permeation of the technology and you know it's of course they're gonna have to bring computer interfaces like there's really cool sexy stuff but ai should be in everything and you know one of the examples i use is um if you go look at consumer physical products smart whatever so there are now smart refrigerators right smart tvs smart tables smart you know you go and like they just put smart in front of all the stuff and it all became connected and to the point where like imagine if you said to somebody previously hey your doorbell your thermostat your refrigerator right you know all these things are going to be smart oh by the way

on top of that we were just going to put new devices you never heard of before we're going to put an alexa we're going to put all this stuff in your home 25 years ago people were like what are you talking about why does my doorbell need to be smart like you just press the doorbell yeah but now in hindsight we're like hey these things are really valuable so let me give you an exact example of 10 years from now 15 years from now using the refrigerator as an example and using nano banana the latest one so we talked about nano banana before it's blowing me away so you have llms which are purely the words out there and kind of the videos that went through but not the videos in terms of the imaging side so you move from llms to what are called vlms visual vision language

models. And eventually you get to VLAs, which are visual vision language action models. So think of the vision language action as the humanoids, like they need to not only know everything that has happened, but they need to be able to see things real time, make decisions. So now let's take that smart refrigerator. This is the way to work in the future. You've already seen now that you can take any photo, put it into a nano banana. It can turn into another photo or it can analyze it and give you a detail of what this is. You can take a textbook photo, bring it up and say, convert this into a easier way for my child to understand it. So we've already gotten to this combination of taking visual things and turning them into text. Let's assume you have your refrigerator and it's

a smart refrigerator. In the future, what will happen is you normally have carrots. All of a sudden, you're down to a small amount of carrots. It sees that and then it orders the carrots for you. This is what's true smart things. These are all dumb home devices at this point. Now you'll eventually buy that refrigerator. And if the cost of the new refrigerator, which will happen is cheaper, but it's saving you money because it's doing all this work. It's more efficient for you. Same thing with a robo taxi, same thing with a smartphone, same thing with all of this. You're going to get to that point where all of that stuff will be done via vision, but it needs to get to that point. That's why when people call it a bubble, we're not even in the second inning yet

of where this is all going and it's the combination for the next decade of taking the brain and inserting it into the machines not just humanoids not just cars it is phones it is tvs it is everything in your home we'll all have it that's why when jensen wang talks about this he says very quickly we have to go through the entire world and stick brains in everything so if you've made money the last few years trading software names, more power to you. They are incredibly overvalued. It doesn't mean they can't go higher like a Palantir. Those are difficult ones to know what the proper valuation is. But Salesforce.com had record earnings this year. Stock is down significantly. Adobe had record earnings this year. So what happened? The market is starting

to realize that three years out, I don't actually know if I can price this company at that multiple three years from now. So you're seeing multiple compression. So all of this thing, we've been in a 15-year period where you didn't buy Corning. Salesforce.com can grow to a $500 billion company while Corning goes unchanged. Now, to actually get the brain into everything, you need a lot of glass. You need a lot of different things on there and optical fiber and all this stuff. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitizenship. Italy now has one of the most compelling residency pathways in Europe. And Bitisanship just built the Bitcoin native way to access it. It's called the Bitcoin Dolce Visa. With a 250K equity investment into Bitisanship Italia, a Milan-based

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And I was like, okay, Phil Rosen, who many people have seen come on the show, he's done stuff with you. he sent me a picture of him and Elon Musk and it was like a selfie at like uh like a party and I was like what the heck and he was like uh you know I used this thing they sent me another one another one they were all looking very real right and I was like oh that's cool whatever and so uh between that and I said to myself when I get home tonight I'm gonna go and I'll play around with it I saw a video online of a guy who had his phone and he was standing in a garage and he had a car with the engine um you know exposed and he basically scanned it and he said okay i need to change the oil how do i do it and then it said well do you have these things and he went

over to his workbench and he showed on the video right and said okay we have all the parts right okay here then he says okay well where's the cap and it zoomed in right and like it was just like uh i attributed it to like uh having uh your dad right you know there and show you okay there's the cap unscrew the cap right and like real instructions but a two-way conversation with this device oh google seems to be coming ahead got home played with nano banana and i was like this is pretty good right this is actually excellent um but i'm always do i really know how good it is or is it just good for the use cases i have and so i'm impressed because it can do some you know unique thing what's the objective measurement but this time i didn't

use an objective members uh measurement sam altman supposedly sent a message inside of open ai i say calling it a code red that's the only message i need that's the only measurement that matters is the competitors they're freaking out so now what becomes really interesting is one competition is good it should drive innovation it should push all these folks etc but it does start to bring up this question of like i think that there's been a consensus that all these models are going to be very commoditized but it feels like we're getting these different you know kind of innovations and then a third maybe part of this is i've recently sat down with uh uh somebody's a ceo of uh what has become a very large company like you know billion plus dollars

of revenue and um they've been buying companies and then fixing them kind of like a private equity but like a tech you know enabled and so i asked him i said what uh what model do you use he goes willing to use one great claude but uh gwen i think the chinese qwen right i was very taken back i said you're using a chinese model he's well it's open source we run it on our own stack our data never leaves our environment and he goes and the reason why we use it is because it's faster and it's way cheaper and so all of a sudden i was like this is a full cutthroat competition where the only winner is actually the user like it's death by a thousand cuts these guys are going to just fight it out yep some of them will win some of them won't whatever but like the user

is going to be the ultimate beneficiary from it and i i want to make this statement i've said it before, but you just hit on so many points that people need to start putting into context because a lot of the decisions we make on life are on this one statistic. And this one statistic is GDP. So I told a story over the summer in Maine that my garbage disposal froze. And normally in my life, I would just quickly get on the phone and call a plumber. That decision is great for GDP. What's bad for GDP is what I did, which is I take my phone. I literally take a photo of the garbage disposal, describe what is going on. And a minute later, it's fixed. It tells me what to do, how to do it. And it's done. Now,

Geordie the plumber. Geordie the plumber. That was, and I felt really good because I'm like, okay, I can use this for anything. And that's literally what it was. I just took a photo of the machine. It told me to take a photo down below, told me to go get an Allen wrench, and that was it.

And it literally told me exactly what to do. Now, if I would have used YouTube, I would have got frustrated. I would have ended up calling the plumber almost assuredly because unless they have the exact model, it doesn't matter. And it's also the customization to your problem. Not just, I don't need to understand how this whole thing works.

Just tell me, here's my problem with this thing. How do I fix the problem? Exactly. And this is the problem with AI and innovation in general and GDP. GDP is a sum of all transactions. So you actually want to call the plumber, pay your money to the plumber. It hurts my bank account. I can still spend more money as long as I'm making more income.

And you get this circular thing. It is a horrible statistic and measure that was not created for intangibles, for using software. I'm not paying anything more for solving that problem than the $20 I'm paying Google or $200 in terms of this. So you bring up a point that as people go through this and they think about all these models, the competition is incredibly deflationary. Most importantly, these models will be stealing business from all of them. So Cursor, we've talked about. Cursor just did a big fundraise. They raised $2.3 billion at a $30 billion valuation.

Fastest growing company to a billion ARR in history, I believe. Mm hmm. If I'm them, I'm scared. I used to use cursor, but I don't need to anymore the way that I did. I can use Claude code. I can use other tools and don't actually get to cursor the same way they have to pay for these models. So you're getting to a point on the models that the models are becoming commoditized. The people that are building on top of the models are being forced to go to Quent because they need the lower cost. The models are not as good. So the one thing about the Chinese open source models, they're not as good as the U.S. models, but they're cheaper, they're fast, and you can build on them. And so the disruption to the moats of all businesses

is already happening. And if a company like Cursor, which should be watched by people, if all of a sudden their burn rate grows, because why would a company built on code need $2.3 billion of capital. It's not for hiring people. They're not like growing their business. This is a software company. Why do they need 2.3 billion? Because their burn rate is so high. Why is their burn rate so high? Why is OpenAI's burn rate so high? It does lead to the dilemma that people see financially with these companies. But at the same point, I believe what is actually happening is the deflationary pressures from the models will continue to be an issue for all companies that are built on code. And the place where this will benefit is the physical companies because

copper is not getting easier to pull out of the ground. Optical fiber is not getting easier. And they've been underinvested because when stocks don't move for 20 years, you don't have a lot of investments. So your point about this like plumber is really interesting, right? Because technically what you got is a more efficient world. You were able to diagnose a problem. You were able to fix it yourself. There is some economic activity, although very small in terms of you're using tokens and you're getting an answer or whatever. But that transaction with the plumber,

$100, $200, whatever they would have charged you, they would have had to maybe buy parts and all this kind of stuff. How do we measure whether the economy is getting better or worse if now you're not calling the plumber? And that is multiplied by billions of transactions or interactions around the world.

And I even think about this as, if you have young kids, well, you used to go buy books for them. You want to know what's real effective? Write a story for a four-year-old or a two-year-old or a seven-year-old, right? Include pictures. I mean, this is now changing the way that commerce happens. And so what does the new world look like? What's the new framework you use to measure how is the economy doing? All right, so let me go back first to the quote I said that Elon Musk said, which is, work is optional. So basically there is no statistic as far as I'm concerned

because that gets to a, work is optional. Think about it. The entire economy and measuring the economy comes down to, I need to work to make money to pay for things. Work is optional. If he's correct, 20 years from now, 15 years from now, 30 years from now, work is optional.

By definition, that means you're getting everything you need for a certain amount of money. So I have just kind of thought about this for a long time and said, I believe that the mistake that people are making goes back to a book, which I've told you about, called A Whole New Mind. A Whole New Mind, written by Daniel Pink, came at the right time for me. I didn't read it until after the great financial crisis. But the book basically says we're going from math, logic kind of thinkers, and we're going into a world of artists, empathy, creativity. Think of Elon Musk. Like the things he's saying are not something you can mathematically go through. That's why, you know, probably the most famous and public trade in the last 25 years by someone who's now got a sub stack and is out there everywhere is Michael Burry.

All right, give us the Burry pitch. Everyone wants to know, why is Michael Burry shutting down his hedge fund and freaking out? Ladies and gentlemen, this is going to blow your mind. What's going on here? So based on everything I've read, the man shuts his hedge fund. I have no idea what his returns are. he was obviously part of a movie and part of a trade that the hedge fund I was at made a lot of money on. A lot of people did because mathematically it made no sense, meaning

the way the housing market was back in 2007. So it wasn't some genius trade. It was something, and if you watch the movie where a lot of people are out there saying, when is this going to happen? It's got to happen at some point. But he decides to close his hedge fund and he goes and starts a sub stack and immediately gets 30,000 plus subscribers charging $400 a year for the sub stack. So man's got 12 million revenue coming right in the door right off the bat. Now he sells something that people love because people love bears. They love, there are so many people out there that believe the world's going to end tomorrow and it's easy to feed them stuff. And he is a, I mean, he's been all over the press over the last week. The reason I bring him up for this is that book,

A Whole New Mind specifically says that if we're leaving a world where you can't do math on things, so let's go back to GDP. Floating around the universe today is the leading economic indicators related to the coincident indicators. This can't last forever. We'll have a recession. Well, we are in a recession in the old industrial world. There is no doubt about it. Housing's horrible. Commercial real estate's horrible. Autos stink right now. We have been in a recession for probably three years. We're seeing small businesses go out. Job losses are happening in the industrial economy. Now they're starting to happen in the software.

We're definitely in a recession in some measurement, but that's a mathematical thing. At the same time, nominal GDP is growing at 5%. At the same time, we still have all of these innovations going. I don't know if there's a measurement that will ever come. And that's why certain places in the world have happiness measurements. because if poverty is going down, even if the poverty line and Michael Green's thing

is continues to go higher, which is adding pressure to the way people feel, I think we are getting into a world where it's very, very hard to come up with a measurement that will be defined. So that's why we talk

about these things. We talk about the job losses. I'll go into data after data on income and all these things. But for people who's listening, you just take it day by day because one thing you said, and this is the truth about innovation,

it's gradual. There is no AI moment where it just happens. This is a gradual thing. And for people that are trying to trade, make money, I believe we are at a major inflection point where we are going to put brains into machines and that build out, not just data centers, which are necessary. This is not a bubble. This is a necessity, which is government back. the genesis mission basically makes it too big to fail for ai because we need these things for military dominance we need it for everything go with government policy and get involved in it and rather than focus on the true measurement i think if you're focusing on old measurements you're going to make a mistake and you're going to follow the people that are bearish

if you follow on the new stuff that elon musk is talking about you don't have to believe in his timeline but this is the smartest entrepreneur in the world and i just wrote a paper in substack this week that was all about if warren buffett said what elon musk said the market would be up nobody trusts elon musk nobody believes him but he's the most successful innovator financially of our time i uh i'll leave you with this i am shocked at how much access you and i have to elon think about the world's richest man in 1900 if you were anyone outside of a very small group of of people, you never saw them. You never heard their views. You never understood what they were doing. Maybe the newspaper wrote about a milestone or, you know, a antiquated hit piece, right? You

know, whatever. But like, that was your interaction. And it was almost like there was a myth. Elon sat down for two hours and somebody had a conversation with him and published it. Jensen Huang went on Joe Rogan podcast and got asked all these questions, spent hours. I mean, these are people who are just sitting and it's like having you know uh lunch with them and sure maybe you don't get to be the person to ask the questions but the access that you have to these folks is incredible and it just feels like they're able to disseminate their ideas faster which reinforces that that is where the future goes right when jensen says small reactors guess what oclo does a bunch of people said well jensen the godfather of ai i'm gonna go move my capital well

they have access to more capital what do you think their odds of you know succeeding probably increase and so it just becomes this world where we have more access to the smartest most successful people in the world than anyone in human history had it the people in their time and at the same point michael burry can call ai a bubble and people pay for the sub stack while jensen yuang has is still talking about ai and something and has his year over your revenues recently released is coming out at 62% at this stage, still growing 62%, quarter over quarter at about 25%. So annualizing in the last quarter, higher than the year numbers. And then you have Elon Musk, who's built rocket ships, Starlink, Tesla, battery, like go through the whole list.

You have those two guys doing interviews at the same time that Michael Burry is also in X using the same stuff that Elon Musk is using in Jensen. And yet most people that I talk to believe AI is a bubble. So they're in the Michael Burry camp, which gets back to the whole new mind. If people go bring the book up and chat GPT, and at a minimum, they go, what is his thesis here? It is exactly what has played out. You want to follow the words to make money of Elon and Jensen, because they are, I mean, Elon Musk is a gamer. Demis Hassabis is a gamer. They don't care about the money. Michael Burry got his hedge fund and go launch the Substack. He didn't do it for free. he charged people four hundred dollars that's all you need to know well it's uh maybe follow the

money and i'll tell you the outcome exactly all right where can we send people to uh to find the video the video this sunday is excellent if you are watching this right now on saturday tomorrow is sunday that's how the calendar works uh jordy is releasing a video that is a must watch it should be like on the front page of the new york post it's going to be so good so explain exactly what what you're going to do and where people can go find this thing. They can find it on YouTube at JVisser Labs, and they can always find my stuff on LinkedIn, NX, and my sub stack as well. And then I will be launching finally, a different service in January that's related to 22V, which will help investors,

but most importantly to me, and this is the promise I give to everyone. I use AI all day long. I believe every kid between the age of 15, and I'll even go up to 35 right now, needs to be financially empowered. They need to be following AI. And I'm going to turn this into how do I learn AI through thinking about financial empowerment to actually go from how do I take an Elon Musk interview and turn that into actual ideas? How do I learn about LLMs to VLMs to VLAs?

I am not a technician. I did not go to computer science school, but I'm an insatiable learner and everything that I'm learning is through AI. And so anyone who comes this weekend will get more access into that. I hope people join it. And hit the subscribe button to say thank you

for all of this hard work. Thank you. We'll see you again next week. See you next week, bud.