The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin Is About to Absorb a Historic Rotation | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: February 21, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of market experience and the author of VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we break down what’s happening in software stocks, credit markets, and bitcoin — including how bitcoin could benefit in both inflationary and deflationary environments. We also explore real-world AI adoption, capital shifts, and a few surprising insights Jordi didn’t see coming.========================Bitget (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew) is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX) (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold. At launch, users can trade 79 instruments with USDT directly with the App. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage, while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. For more information on Bitget TradFi, visit this article (https://bitget.com/support/articles/12560603846859). For more information, visit: Website (https://bitget.com/) | Twitter (https://x.com/bitget) | Telegram (https://t.me/BitgetENOfficial) | LinkedIn (https://linkedin.com/company/bitget-global/) | Discord (https://discord.com/invite/bitget)For media inquiries, please contact: [e-mail]========================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/========================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.========================0:00 - Intro0:51 - Breaking down deflation & macro environment 5:49 - Why deflation pushes money into scarce assets12:40 - Software stocks, AI, & multiple compression18:45 - Why public companies may disappear20:35 - Tokenization, RWAs, & on-chain markets25:45 - What “agent swarms” actually are & security risks 38:42 - AI apps anyone can build & how to use AI40:48 - Private credit stress & Blue Owl49:45 - What Jordi is covering next

This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. If the fiat system is $800 trillion and Bitcoin is $2 trillion, there's a rotation that'll happen. And that's why deflation equals deleverage. Deleverage equals Bitcoin to go higher as

part of the rotation. Whether it's $70,000, $100,000, $40,000, it's not the equation. The equation that I care about in the chart that I'm looking at is Bitcoin relative to software. When that starts to go higher, everything changes for me. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. This one gets very deep into what is going on with software stocks, the credit market, Bitcoin, how Bitcoin could benefit from deflation or inflation. That's going to be something that all of you are very interested in. And on top of that, we talk about the latest developments in artificial intelligence and how people are using this stuff, including, I surprised Jordy

with one or two things he didn't know, which is maybe the first time that's ever happened on this show. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, you published this great image. And I thought we could just go through this because I think this image really is going to show us how Bitcoin could benefit from deflation. It's going to talk about deflation and inflation. And it's also got the macro overlay of just like what's happening in the world and why so many people are probably offsides when thinking about interest rates, monetary policy, etc. But walk us through this image that you have here and kind of how people should think about what you're trying to communicate. Yeah, so this has been the last four months. Let's take it from

October 10th, since that seems to be the date that the crypto community has leaned on as the day that everything changed. And let's combine that with the chart that everyone has now seen, which is the software stocks relative to Bitcoin and the fact that it's like a one for one overlay. And I will say not just now, but for this. So when people like Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan wrote this really good piece on liquidity and how Bitcoin is basically ahead of the NASDAQ, but they're all this positive liquidity story. It's like Bitcoin is the most sensitive to liquidity. The most sensitive. And Raoul Pal talks and shows the charts about liquidity to Bitcoin. I'm not a subscriber to this now. That made sense to me, let's say from 2009 or 2010,

up until AI started to accelerate. At some point, there's a breaking point for me, which is deflation starts to take over. So when you're in a point where the government is able to print enough money to stop the Jeff Booth kind of we're fighting against deflation, exponential innovation is deflation. At some point, there's no fight.

And you only get to that point when it's replacing labor. Now, it's also a democratizing thing. So I wrote a paper in Substack this week about the democratization, and I got into the end about how this destroys the capital structure of the world. So what I believe we're entering into, and the reason software is going down, is because anything that can be recreated with AI, meaning on code for now, becomes worthless. It might take 10 years. It might take one year.

I don't agree with anyone that comes up with an argument that SaaS is fine. They are in a multiple compression because three years from now, we don't know what's going to happen. But what we do know is the cost of intelligence. I pay the same amount of money for Claude as I did a year ago, but its capabilities are 100, 1,000 times where they were, which means in technology, this deflation is happening rapidly. The Chinese are offering more models.

So in a world of deflation, all of the code-based assets should go down. But when you get to deflation, that's when you start to care about hiding. And the only thing you can hide in is scarcity. So when you watch my videos, I talk about abundance, that's code, and then scarcity. We are in the scarcity seeking mode. Right now it's helped gold, it's helped silver, it's helped the physical things because for the majority of people that own the money in the world, they don't believe in Bitcoin. The wealthiest people do not believe in Bitcoin.

The only wealthy people that believe in Bitcoin are the ones that made their wealth from Bitcoin. That's it. That's why when I did the IPO thing, I'm like, guys, why would you keep all of your money in Bitcoin? You have to move some of it into the TradFi world. You have to move some of it into AI, which theoretically could destroy it. So that image was meant to show that we're in stage two of my thought process, which I think lasts until humanoids come.

But I think Bitcoin will separate itself from software. And I think it'll happen this year. And so for the optimistic side of me, who believes that Bitcoin is the end result of they're a world of code with no moats, pretty soon you're going to have a growth asset that people look to that is scarce. So the day that you start seeing the software names kind of have a little bounce, but Bitcoin has a big bounce, which would be different than what happened back on Liberation Day. So every time we've had a fall, to go back to Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ would run together. That's why it gets this negative thing.

We are out of that world now. We are now in a world where deflation is destroying multiples on companies built on code. And I don't think people have adapted to that. And I think the wealthiest people on the planet who manage money in an industry that I know so well, they don't believe in Bitcoin. They don't understand it because it has no narrative. It is a true scarce growth asset that is based on what Mike Novogratz said so eloquently there. Whatever you think about Mike Novogratz, it is a asset that was built by a community. Plain and simple. It is accepted as an asset.

Hundreds of millions of people around the globe accept it as an asset. To me, in a world of deflation, I don't know what's going to be here three years from now, which means by definition, the moats are gone and you have to believe in something that has a moat. And as I've said, religion, gold, and now Bitcoin. So most people listening to this are going to believe money gets printed, which leads to inflation, which means Bitcoin goes up. And that asset inflation was a direct result of our inability to balance a budget, to keep the national debt from exploding higher, kind of the liquidity component that you're talking about. that is, let's just call that up until recently been the driver of Bitcoin, etc. There are going to be a lot of people who say, if you do not believe that anymore, you're just moving the

goalposts because, oh, Bitcoin's not working right now. And that means that now you're looking for a different narrative. I'm not talking about you in particular, but just like the Bitcoin community in general. I think it's a fair question to ask, right? But what I think you're saying, Kathy Wood said this to me at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference, I've had a number of other people is that the driver of value in the world is actually now changing. It used to be liquidity and inflation. You're now saying that deflation could drive value to all scarce assets, not just Bitcoin, but gold or anything else. Explain how deflation drives value into scarce assets. So at the end of the day, the one thing that all people have, whether they're

sitting at home or they're working on wall street is greed. I don't care what it is. Like you're always interested in making money and whether it's, um, I'm trying to think Norton from, from the, the, the honeymooners, which is a little bit after your time, but still for the people out there, my age right now, there's always a scheme that's going on. There's always some way to make money. Money is a driving factor in a lot of things. I really do try to follow a Buddhist framework in my head and think about things in that way. And money is a delusion. People think it brings them happiness, but when you get more, you need more. So greed is just part of human nature and it's just part of the things that are pleasure seeking. So I believe there's a rotation

that happens. When you get into deflation, like you're getting now, you avoid the things that are deflating. Ford has been a horrible investment. Europe has been a horrible investment. Japan has been a good investment over the course of the last 15 years. It's been a horrible investment since 1992. The only thing that's worked that has either beaten Bitcoin or been close to Bitcoin has been the thing that Sam and Lynn came up with as number two on the list. It's the one that Raul talks about as innovation directly to Bitcoin. They move together. So theoretically, you need to believe that the inflation that we print money, the NASDAQ

and innovation goes higher. Well, that's over for me. Commodities have been sideways since 2007, even with the rally we've seen, because they peaked then and they went down. Oil was $155 when I went to China in May of 2008. We're down in the 60s. So there is deflation that happens with more innovation. It's just that we get caught in this thing that think,

well, they print money and the stock market goes higher. The stock market has not gone higher in Brazil in local terms, sorry, in dollar terms. So I have this thing of rotation in the back of my mind that if the fiat system is $800 trillion and Bitcoin is $2 trillion, which it's not right now, but let's assume we get back to 2 trillion, there's a rotation that'll happen.

what'll drive it up to 50 trillion, to 100 trillion. The only thing in my mind has always been the rotation. The most logical answer is if everyone who owns the 800 trillion, you took their average age in their 60s and you gave all that money to someone who's younger and you said, what's your asset allocation? You have 800 trillion in this bucket,

you have 2 trillion there. Well, I want some money in Bitcoin. You'd have a rotation and this would go higher and that would go down. Eventually, that's what I believe. So I've said this before. I believe the world is deleveraging. The $800 trillion is heading back towards where it should be, which is monetary base

of the world, nominal GDP of the world. Both those numbers are about $120 trillion. Now, the question is, do we go from $800 trillion to $120 trillion overnight? Well, that was the Great Depression. That's not allowed. That's what the governments are going to do everything they can to prevent. The more likely scenario is that we come down in this manner over the course of 20 to 50 years.

And that's why deflation equals deleverage. de-leverage equals Bitcoin to go higher as part of the rotation. So I'm not in any way changing the goalposts. This has always been my writing. This has always been my thesis. I will say to everyone, I got sucked into believing in Bitcoin in this theory when I listened to Michael Saylor back in 2021, when he was describing the decision. And I always say, yes, he did bring up the basing. He did bring up that the government was going to steal his money by moving rates to zero while inflation was gonna go higher and he was sitting with money in his treasury account.

But he also said he was in this position where he had to make a decision because of exponential innovation. Because Microsoft had completely destroyed his software business, he could not compete with them anymore. That is where you have this running of inflation that is incredibly deflationary

and it allowed these companies to have a moat that they're not gonna have in a world of intelligence. So hopefully that clears up your question, gets to a better spot. Today's episode is brought to you by BitGet. BitGet is the world's first universal exchange, serving over 125 million users with access to over 2 million crypto tokens and TradFi markets such as 100 plus tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metals like gold and silver. They officially opened its TradFi trading suite on January 5th, 2026, and has already hit the milestone of $4 billion of daily volume just days later.

Users can now trade 79 instruments across global macro assets, such as Forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, directly with USDT, all within their existing BitGet account. This experience is designed to feel familiar to crypto-native traders while opening the door to macro-driven strategies without the need to switch platforms. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. The BitGet ecosystem is committed to helping users trade smarter with its AI agent to execute trade orders as a co-pilot. BitGet is driving crypto adoption through strategic partnerships with LaLiga and MotoGP. Aligned with its global impact strategy, BitGet has joined hands with UNICEF to support blockchain education for 1.1 million people by 2027. BitGet currently leads in tokenized trade by market, providing the industry's lowest fees and highest liquidity across 150 regions worldwide. Check them out at bitget.com today. That's B-I-T-G-E-T.com today.

is the market's pretty smart. They saw that the internet was going to disrupt these media companies. And so investors started to sell them. And then only after two or three years did you start to see the actual impact of the financials because eventually the technology force is too big to overcome.

The reason why that chart is floating around right now is because people are looking at the software companies and saying, hey, the defenders of the SaaS companies look at how much money they're making, look at how much growth they have, Look at their customer concentration. Look at the LTV expansion on a per customer basis, like all these metrics. Are we just two or three years until we start to see that stuff come down?

And so actually the market is forward looking and realizes the writing's on the wall? Or is something else going on that could we actually see multiple compression, but the companies continue to grow? They actually make more money in the future. It's just the multiples have come down. And so you don't need to have impaired financials as much as just people treat it as less valuable in the future. So this is a great question.

And you got my brain going a bunch of different directions. So I'll get to the multiple compression part, because that is happening right now. And I'm going to show that in the video of the weekend. And it's, I mean, software companies, multiples collapsing, but their earnings are at all time highs. Watch out below. So, but let me take, let me, let me go a different direction from where you were going and just think of something that came in.

If you if you go to a hotel, you will inevitably see physical newspapers that they have there. Now, in breakfast time, if you go to any one of the big restaurants here or Paris or anywhere else and you grab a news or you walk into the breakfast and, you know, you look at the menu, you realize you're going to have one hundred and fifty dollar breakfast of eggs and something, nothing against the peninsula in the St. Regis. but that's just the reality of what they get away with. If you just went around the room and you only selected the people that were reading a physical newspaper and I asked you, how would you describe what you think those people would be? Well, number one, they'd be older.

Who wants to get their hands dirty and go through that whole thing again? But there's still people that do it. Let's assume it's 10% of the people. But then if you added up the total net worth of the people in there and what they were the percentage of, it's going to be close to the baby boomer ownership thing. And that's not a negative thing to say. Now, do any of them own Bitcoin? I'm going to say no. Do any of them own the hyperscalers? 100%. The reason I bring that up as part of your question. That is the reason why when software is going down, Bitcoin has to go down. The only time this is going to change is when those people reading the paper either give their money to their kids or they get greedy. And it's when the SaaS, the hyperscalers don't

go up and where Bitcoin does. That is the multiple compression story. So Bitcoin to me has to be connected to multiple compression. It cannot be like if we have a collapse in the markets this year and we get a 20% correction, which I think is a reasonable chance, not because of earnings, not because of the economy, not because of rate hikes, but because of what I've talked about, the deleveraging that I mentioned, especially for diversified asset managers who use covariance matrix to kind of hedge their book. At some point, if we stay in this world, which I think we were, where multiple compressions are happening, it's because people don't know how to value things out three years. I will talk a lot about this in this weekend's video. If you

don't know what the world's going to look like in three years, then volatility has to increase because you don't know the value of a company. So Bitcoin has no disruption from this. It is still connected to the fiat system and software in particular. That's why I will keep saying it. It has to be correlated to some degree. When it breaks the correlation, nothing will stop it at that point. Because once it breaks, you'll go. We are seeing multiple compression at the stock level, which I believe is part of the deleveraging that I expect to happen. It's happening from the deflationary situation that's going on with intelligence that is driving things and at the same point, increasing competition to make the world uncertain. But people have to understand

Bitcoin at the end of the day, if I believe it's going to a million, it's a long duration asset because I don't think that's happening this year. I think that's happening in the future. If you think anything is going higher in the future, five, 10 years from now, and you can say it with kind of certainty in your head, you're thinking in a long duration, whether it's credit, whether it's venture capital, whether it's private equity, private credit, doesn't really matter to me. You have a 10 year horizon. Well, 10 years from now, humanoids will be in the elevators with us. How do you value even a physical company at that point? How do you value NVIDIA at that point? Like, I don't know how you do it. So Elon Musk talks about this world of abundance at some point

when abundance is truly everywhere, then you only want to preserve the wealth that you have made in your lifetime, as opposed to just having it invested in stocks that you know nothing about and saying, this is the way the world works. I never thought it worked that way. Maybe I'm stupid. I just didn't think investing in stocks was a guaranteed winner for all of our lifetime and that eventually private businesses would take over for public companies, which I think I've talked about. I don't think there will be public companies in 10 years. I think there will be an ecosystem of little entrepreneurs that are making a little bit of money and enough for them to be happy while the cost of everything goes down. That's the world I believe in. I could

be 100% wrong, but I believe the market every day is getting closer and closer to that and the multiple compressions, the sign of it. Why do you think that there's not going to be public companies? That's interesting. I think a public company by definition, So you have to kind of go through this a different direction. Let's use health as an analogy. Let's assume you see someone who is 60 years old and they're 100 pounds overweight. And I said to you, what's the probability of that person living for another 50 years? And then I saw another person who was the same age but was physically fit.

And I asked you, what's the probability? Now, that person who's physically fit could die beforehand. But I view all public companies as being bloated, overweight people, late in age. So the S&P 500 lifespan is down to like 15 years. So when you go through like the hyperscalers, which I pick on right now, only one of them is from the 1980s. It's Microsoft. The rest of them, Meta, Amazon, Google.

I mean, you're talking less than 25 years. I mean, maybe Amazon is 25, 27, I don't know. But regardless, start as a book company, it's not the same right now. But those are not old companies. You've got a lot of companies like Corning that have been around in the 1800s. So physical companies, very few have lasted.

So I don't think there'll be public companies. Do I think somehow or another those companies might be, their shares might be traded? But this gets into it. If 400 of the S&P 500 companies basically are no longer companies and the capital structure of the future is related to stable coins, Bitcoin, RWAs, and NFTs, then the other thing I'm talking about is

you're talking about a world that doesn't exist anymore. It's like saying, will there be phones with cords on them as opposed to smartphones? The capital structure of the future will not be the same as capital structure today. On-chain fundraising, all this stuff. We've seen now multiple crypto companies whether they're public or private acquire various type of cap table management fundraising on chain you know etc type of businesses we also see tokenization coming fairly quickly um figure technologies company i've been involved for a while now they just i think i think they're the first company to take uh shares and say we're not going to take the public shares put them in like an spv and then tokenize the spv they instead said

if you have a share that is on the, I think it's New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ, and we are going to create native digital shares, and it's a one for one. So for every native digital share we create, we're taking one out of circulation on the traditional stock exchange. Is all of that like headed towards this theory that, you know, there's not gonna be public companies, there may be like public liquidity, but it looks different than the companies of today? Yeah, it's a great question and and we haven't talked about this so um i had a conversation with the figure people and and it forced me to get to know their their their business more um and it's mike cagney who runs it right so i watched a couple youtubes with him and i i absolutely for people who are interested in

the traditional finance world to really start understanding the difference between rwas and and on-chain, I think what you're bringing up is something I'm starting to get more interested in, which is RWAs to me, which are going to grow. I've kind of thought of on-chain and RWAs as going outside this building and needing to take a car somewhere. You've got your taxis, and then you have your Ubers. Now, when Ubers came out, we had strikes between this blah blah blah uber to me is on chain and in in this world that i'm using as an example and taxis are rwas they're around and they merge together like they're still together but eventually you're gonna have autonomous vehicles and then there'll be no taxis and no ubers and they'll

just be the what you're describing here is and for context for those that uh maybe weren't you know kind of in this industry paying attention uh almost a decade ago in 2017 i used to say over and over again publicly tokenize the world tokenize the world tokenize the world and my entire theory was we had an analog world so physical stock certificates physical bonds physical um uh you know uh deeds to your home etc we transitioned at some point in the late 80s into the early 2000s to an electronic q-sip system and so today when you buy an apple stock you are really just moving electronic QSIP around in a database, there is no physical stock certificate that gets sent to your house, you put in a filing cabinet. But there's two day settlement times, there's all

these kind of inefficiencies that people know, but we're cool with it, because it's better than the physical world. So we had analog age, we went to an electronic age. And then my theory was always we're going to move to a digital age. And the digital age is what now people are looking at is on chain, all this kind of stuff. Now, the transition period between these, I thought was going to happen way faster. So in 2017, I was like, you know, it's on our doorstep. Here we go. interestingly when people were talking about tokenization back then no one was talking about the dollar everyone was talking about equity and real estate and all those kind of assets ended up being the dollar was the first one now if you just think of currencies bitcoin is on chain it is a

native asset to the digital world yeah the dollars in these stable coins those are the equivalent of the rwa you're taking dollars you're basically putting them somewhere and then you are tokenizing the the wrapper that you put the dollars in right and use it the reason why i described that is i've always use the terminology of, is it digitally native or is it in a digital wrapper, right? It's kind of like the way that I've thought about it. It sounds like you believe that both of those will be options in the future. They just have pros and cons, you know, to kind of like, if you're an issuer, as an example, do you go digital native or do you go into the digital wrapper? That's really what people have to decide is what are they optimizing for? So let me clarify two things.

First of all, when I, just to make sure the audience, cause I'm saying RWAs and there's by a bunch of people. So real world assets being tokenized, everything that you own, a piece of art, whatever, bringing it to where it has a QSIP, something that basically says, you're taking something created in this other world, putting on what Mike Cagney talked about. I would say passionately, which in hearing him talk, I like when people get passionate about something, but it was this on chain, on chain. It has to be on chain. It has to be on chain, as opposed to taking something off chain, putting it on chain. And I started thinking about it and it gets into the point that you're bringing. So I think this is the year. So there were two risks

that I saw this year. One is a very large deleveraging that happens faster than I anticipate because of this rotation happening away from software into hardware. And I think we're seeing the early signs of that. And without getting too wonky here, I do think that this problem is going to persist the entire year. This is structural, extend into the next years. People have to take their leverage now. It's just this world isn't going to go back. But the other risk is, and this gets into the thing you brought up, and I want people to think about this in the crypto world as well. We are entering a year of agent swarms. There's going to be more hacking going on. You just go read some of the stories about what happened with Amazon back in December when

service went down i i think being like kind of on chain but not truly on chain is going to be an issue like this is the thing that speeds up the demand for on-chain stuff you're saying that there's security vulnerabilities in having one foot in the new world one foot in the old world and that's something i believe and you can have a bunch of you know adam beck and people that know far more than i on the vulnerabilities between the two but it's ironic that i have to defend quantum, which is far down the road. And nobody's worried about agent swarms. Describe what an agent swarm is. I don't think most people know. Easiest way for me to describe, we are at the point where open claw, which allows agents to

just run 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, where they work together. So if you want to hack something as an individual, think about what they had to do, even with the technology they had. It's one person. Whenever you watch a TV show, it's like this mad hacker broke in. Well, now there's billions of hackers, but here's the thing. The IQ right now in the models is up near 140, and we have more models coming out. So what I like to say to people is, hey, guys, wouldn't Einstein have been a great hacker? Well, pretty soon you're going to have, by the end of this year, billions of Einsteins trying to hack into everything. And you know how I know this is going to happen?

two important points. Sam Alton talks about it. You don't believe him? Demis Sosabits talks about it. You don't believe him? Dario Modai. They're all saying the same thing, which is nobody's prepared for what's coming. So let's get back to the public companies. If you were a hacker anywhere in the world and you wanted to hack something, Bitcoin is this little tiny thing. So yeah, it might be a great accomplishment, but you're not doing it with AI swarms. With quantum, we'll get there. But you can absolutely hack into any large company enterprise you want. So aren't they the targets now of this world by people that have AI agent swarms on their mini Mac, their Mac minis at home. So we've opened up this door and I don't think people have gone

through the risk. So this half on chain, full on chain, this is one of the reasons why at some point people go, wait, I want my money safe. My assets are not safe. I could be hacked anywhere. Go to Bitcoin because the agent swarms are not going to get the Bitcoin. At some point, people start to realize that when they're talking about things like quantum, they haven't really thought about where we are because they don't use AI enough. But I'm telling you, I have people in my life, so many of them now, including me, but let's leave me alone. People must think at this point because of how much AI I do, I've set this up. People at home that you would never think are using open claw and they're sitting there saying, this is the most amazing thing. And I

actually don't know how they're incorporating it into their life, but you have to go back to Iron Man and watch Jarvis and realize that's what they're doing is allow these things to run. Have you seen the woman on X who is – I think she's a stay-at-home mom slash the teacher of her children that she's homeschooling, and she keeps posting these videos of how she's using all the latest AI and open colonelists. All right. So maybe we'll pull up and – The homeschool people? So she is – I think she's a stay-at-home mom, and it's her kids. What I'm not sure is, is it like a homeschool pod where there's a couple of other kids, or is it just her kids?

But she keeps basically publishing these videos. videos and a couple of videos a week. And she's showing like, here's how I'm using this technology. So I don't remember all of the exact details, but it's very impressive in the sense where she may go and say, okay, I want to do a lesson on, you know, I don't know how flowers grow. And she will go and she'll get a curriculum and then she'll get some materials. And then she'll say to the AI, I need you to create the visual illustrations of all of this. And they'll go and they'll do that, right? and all this stuff. But then she started using like OpenClaw and she started taking it like further and further and further. And so like, okay, that's interesting because what you really

have is you have a human who is relying on essentially like a AI co-pilot to help teach children. Alpha School is now publishing all these results and they're coming out and they're showing that, you know, kids are basically every kid in the class, like the equivalent of valedictorian or, you know, whatever their claim to fame is, but they're doing it in two hours a day and so you start to realize you're like wait a second here uh the holy grail is one-on-one tutoring and you know synthesis a company that i've been involved with um they've got an ai tutor where parents can go and it's one-on-one but it's like a game and so you're like okay hold on a second there's enough data points here like this is going to change very very rapidly

but to your point that they're not google engineers they're not you know uh super high tech talk about a stay-at-home mom who's a homeschool teacher look what she's able to now she's got to have some sort of tech background because the things she's doing seem to be fairly you know technical and kind of forward-looking so my guess is maybe she worked in the tech industry or something before but like that's where it starts and all of a sudden you're going to have you know teachers across america who just say hey why am i going to go spend money because guess what one of the problems in classrooms are every year what do they do please donate 20 to you know miss smith's second grade classroom because she needs to buy pencils

and pens and notebooks and all the stuff and oh by the way she needs to buy textbooks and well now for 20 bucks a month maybe she can just create it and mark andreessen gave an interview in the last month i forget what what where was but he talked about the difference between being homeschooled and going to school and how much i mean you don't get the social side but the learning side is much better in one-on-one tutoring like it's not even close so with ai and he talked about this i don't know what college is going to look like going forward but i do know people that get one-on-one tutoring are going to be better so if if you can do and i i mean i if you go through school and you're like well how many hours a week did you actually go what

does go you can easily do that through ai it's not even a problem and it's more efficient because it's one-on-one and if you don't when you get something you move on to the next thing so it it makes it, first of all, it makes perfect sense. The other thing about it. And the thing that I guess, as we're talking to people, this is far easier than people realize. So, uh, for 22 V, there's a, uh, a salesperson who was on a call with me and, you know, as I did my paywall and as I've done all these videos and, and I, I'm trying to teach people how to use AI because I, I think the longer you go without using it in an advanced manner, the more disruptive and dystopian this is going to feel like.

You have to understand the power of it. It will bring you joy, but it'll also make you feel empowered. And I said to him, he got off the call. He's like, so how are you doing all this stuff? What do you mean? He's like, the turbulence model. You said you built it. How did you build it?

And I was like, dude, do me a favor. If you ever see yourself with four hours of time, do me one favor. Take four hours. instead of whatever you're doing for those four hours, pay $200 for one month for Claude, most expensive one. And then just go have a conversation and whatever app idea comes into your head, just tell it to build the code for it. Take that code, bring it into Replit and turn it into an app that will be on your phone all within the four hours. He did it last weekend. So we had the conversation on Friday. He sat down Saturday, Sunday, and he's like, remind me again. And I just

said, boom, boom. And I got that information from, from AI. He did it. And he sent me the link later that day. I'm going to be showing it in the video. It's cool, right? It's, it's not only cool, but he, you know, no offense to this guy. He's not a guy that I would ever think would be able to use AI or has never code. He's never done anything. So for anyone sitting at a home that hasn't done this yet, you have to do it. If for no other reason, just see the power of it. And also to understand some of the things we're saying, because what you're describing is helping their kids. Today's episode is brought to you by Simple Mining. Bitcoin mining has a reputation for being complicated, risky, and hard to evaluate as a real investment. If you're considering mining

in 2026, what actually matters isn't headline profitability. It's uptime, repairs, and whether the operation is run like a real business. That's why I've been using Simple Mining. They're based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, and they run a white glove hosting operation where you own your miners. You choose your own pool and you have Bitcoin sent directly to your wallet. They were featured on the Inc. 5000 list as the fastest growing company in Iowa with over 40,000 machines under management. What stands out to me is execution. They have the number one rated ASIC repair center. And for the first 12 months, repairs are included. If mining margins get tight, you can pause with no penalties. And if you want to resize or upgrade your fleet, there's a marketplace to

resell equipment instead of being stuck. To help people think it through whether mining actually makes sense right now. They put together a short resource called the 2026 Bitcoin Mining Blueprint. It walks through the five mistakes investors make when allocating to mining, and they also explain how to avoid them before deploying capital. If it sounds interesting to you, you can get it for free at simplemining.io. That's simplemining.io. Go check it out today and see if you should get into the mining game. Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. I absolutely love these guys arch public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies using sophisticated algorithms like the intelligence arbitrage and

oracle protocols arch public executes advanced automated crypto strategies fully customized to your goals is your aim to accumulate bitcoin during market dips generate profits from ethereum volatility or sell solana or xrp in layers as it reclaims all-time highs if so arch public is built for you. Are you worried about doing it alone? No problem. ArchPublic provides everyone, yes, everyone, with hands-on, dedicated support from their concierge team to help implement the strategy that you choose. As a preferred trading partner of Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and Gemini, ArchPublic offers a proven track record of security and performance so that you can trade with confidence. Sign up today at archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for

free no catch no hidden fees just smarter trading your crypto your exchange your profits arch public go to archpublic.com and tell them i sent you i want to talk about one more thing on ai and then uh let's talk about credit um did you see rourke ai this is me you know bragging a little bit here this is gonna be the second time you've said if you've seen and i i don't know what you're talking about yeah i'm an investor in in rourke so uh a lot of people don't know this i'm an investor in Replit. I'm an investor in Synthesis. I'm an investor in Lovable. I'm an investor in Rourke. I'm an investor in Micro One, all that stuff. A lot of luck. Not a lot of skill, but a lot of luck. I know I was paying for dinner next time. Well, as Peter Thiel says, you can be rich

and poor at the same time. You can be very paper successful and cash poor. If you keep having kids, you'll be poor. Until they all go somewhere, then we got to figure it out. But Rourke, so lovable's whole thing is uh you type in you know kind of natural language prompt and you can build all these websites and stuff uh products types of rork mobile apps but not on android they are replacing xcode on ios and so you now they just launched it this week can go in natural language tell them what you want and they will create an ios app for you can one or two shot it and it is incredible is an iphone app you can have an apple watch you can put it on the apple tv app i mean it is crazy what you can do and so the reason why that becomes really interesting to me

is 10 years ago what most people thought you could jailbreak an iphone but outside of jailbreaking the iphone apple kind of had this walled garden and that walled garden meant that most of the like hackerish innovation went to raspberry pies and android and you know kind of like the open type uh operating system you start being able to do this stuff on apple with the distribution that apple has at the high you know kind of luxury level and you can do it across device so it's not just the iphone but apple watch it we're not ready like like we are not ready for that world where as uh i saw somebody eloquently tweet we're now attacking the offshore development uh companies because you don't have to go hire somebody in name your country elsewhere and pay them

1500 bucks to build something for you you just one shot it uh you know for 200 bucks a month or whatever so here's the interest so using that example um and it's funny you mentioned that because he did he called back he's like to get it on on to get an app on the phone is a lot more work and i'm like all right he's like i can do web-based right i'm like yeah do it as an html i'll be up right away and that's what he chose to do so what you're describing is both good and bad and i want people to understand the reason that he took the easy way out yeah um well and that's the way he consumes things in his his mind but um the reason this is important for the sass conversation so if if everyone is able to build an app then how do you find the apps in the app

store. Because as it is right now, it's very hard for me to find podcasts that are good. Good content should rise to the surface. I hope that the service I'm providing for people with the free YouTube is helping them navigate this whole thing between the disruption of artificial intelligence into their portfolio and then where crypto fits in the whole equation. And if that content is good, then it'll stay and it'll gather viewers. But if it's not, there's a billion podcasts out there and I can't consume all of them and neither can the people watching. So I have to make sure that I'm staying on top of things and hopefully bringing information that helps not only them, but share it with other people. If someone creates an, if everyone creates an app tomorrow

and there's 8 billion apps, there's no way to find the apps. So what will end up happening is theoretically, everything will be bespoke. And this is why I don't believe in the arguments of SAS. Yes. Enterprises might be stuck, but like I gave with the RWAs and the kind of we're off chain. Okay, well, if you're on-chain, you're a different type of person. Enterprises will never be on-chain. They're still on mainframes in a lot of cases from the days of the 1970s because of how big they are and how bloated. That's why there won't be public companies in the new capital structure.

They couldn't change that quickly if they wanted to. It's the reason why I think Palantir is a buy relative to Microsoft because Microsoft can't change. It's just too big. And they're hoping people will pay for Copilot and stay in their world where none of the new companies are going to use Outlook. They're going to use Gmail and then they'll go on to something else. So I do believe the example you're giving for people out there, when you're thinking about the SaaS arguments and debates, which I don't want to be involved in, it's really comes

down to bespoke. How do I customize something for me? And can I do it immediately? Because there's nuances for everything that happens in a business, in your life. And I think that's where the world is going is bespoke apps. So that was all the fun stuff. Now we've got to get to the tough conversation. Blue Owl is in the headlines. Everyone claims that they're gating redemptions. They came out and said, no, we're not. We're actually giving back more money. Fugazi, fugazi. Are there problems in the credit market? Is private credit not what people were told it was? How do you think about the fear, the chaos, the uncertainty, the volatility, the lack of mark to market in the private credit world?

If Salesforce.com's multiple is going down, which it has, the stock is down significantly, a company that is viewed as the best CRM system, how can't private credit be an issue? You're lending money to businesses, and we're taking Salesforce down without earnings going down, which means we're questioning their future. And that's why I said long-duration assets are in trouble. So there's no doubt that private credit, private equity, venture capital, all these places have this problem that I spoke about, which is this hyper-competitiveness. If you can envision a world where there are billions of apps, well, apps are just theoretically

monetizing an idea. Because you can create the app and not put it on the iPhone. But if all of a sudden the app store has got billions of things, the question is, OK, now I got to create an app for search engine to weed through all the stuff and find it. And you depend a lot on things that just don't exist. That's one of the problems of just too much code being built is the hyper competitiveness. And I think where the credit fears have gotten to from what I've seen in their portfolio, somewhere between eight and 13%, I think it's closer to 13% is in the software slash internet services side, the it services sector. So not the slash sector,

but the IT services is down 20% this month. This includes companies like Accenture. This is the consulting side. It's the service side because you don't need them as much. Now, do the enterprises need to pay them? Yes, but that's because they're slow moving bloated. Again, if you're trying to sell food that's unhealthy, you're not going to be selling it to someone who's eating soybeans and stuff. You're going to sell it to people who are less healthy. So these bloated enterprises, yes, they're still going to pay for the money. And that's why their earnings are going up. But the market is really good at is looking forward and going, but who's replacing that bloated company? Which ones are going to use Salesforce? And they're questioning. They're

not saying it won't happen. They're just questioning it. And Salesforce needs to adapt. So I think as you go through Blue Owl and all of these companies, and Blue Owl is just one that's had other issues, because remember, we had the tricolor situation for the auto subprime auto lending stuff that blew up in september i think as i'll show in this video remember student loan delinquencies through the roof um and and again delinquency is measured by 90 days plus paid now this is not enough to take the economy down but in auto loans in student loans in commercial real estate in uh what's the other one credit card all of them are either at or above the levels they were in the great financial crisis.

Again, these are small components because if you look in the aggregate, it's not that big. But in terms of just the percentage of ones that are up there, they're big. And so I think the private credit world is being dragged into the software world. And what people should realize is we're now having trouble with anything built on code.

So energy companies, which used to make, or they may still make up the highest percentage of the high yield market, they're not in trouble. And the reason they're not in trouble is because we need excess power in the future and oil prices are stable. The problem for, again, technology companies is the pace of change and the fact that we have this deflationary spiral, which makes it very difficult. And so credit, which is a long duration, you're lending people for long periods of time, they've

become an issue. And like a run on a bank, investors want money back. So there's a follow-up story today about how they ended up getting that money. it doesn't read too well. I'll leave it as whether the story is true or not. But they talked about bragging, no, these were 99.7% par. We got them done. But it seems like one of the companies they sold them to is a company they're involved with. Then there was a bunch of pension funds that were brought up in this. And I'm sure the pension funds are now going to be checked like, were these good assets? And if they were good assets and worth what they were, again, when you're in a Ponzi

scheme and i'm not saying blue is a ponzi scheme but i am saying if you're in a ponzi scheme and you have a lot of money as long as you have some cash and go so if you're selling off the best assets to get cash to give out unfortunately you end up in a situation where i think the skepticism on these businesses since no one knows for sure especially in private credit is going to remain as long as the deflationary pressures and technologies stay the blessing and the curse of something being opaque is you don't have to market to market. Nobody also knows what it is, right? Nobody knows what it's worth.

And that has been looked at as a blessing for a long time. I don't know, but maybe it becomes a curse now. I think it does. But again, I'm going to give people now a scenario that could happen this year that would drive the market down significantly. And even though it wouldn't stay down, the one thing I know about credit is when you start seeing the charts

that I'll show this weekend, which are, okay, we don't have high yield spreads widening out, but we do have the tech high yield spreads widening out. So a lot of times there's enough diversification it can go. My fear is this. If I asked you what's the biggest debt fear story

in the world, it's the hyperscalers. I mean, they're taking oracles, taking out lots of money. Their CDS is through the roof, meaning people are betting in a fairly high probability that they'll have trouble in the next five years. Google just issued 30 some odd billion dollars of debt like these companies that never issued debt are now aggressively issuing debt. So if there was a problem, it would have to be on the hyperscalers. That's the only thing big enough in this to make people shake.

And they've been worried about it. I think this year, if the credit stuff continues, and I've talked about this, if software doesn't bounce, and I don't think it'll bounce significantly, but it either needs to become a value trap, meaning it just kind of sits at these depressed multiples and everyone's trying to spend time picking and choosing it, but it's not worth it because it's just dead money for now. You could end up in a scenario that if it falls down, one of the hyperscalers is Microsoft. Microsoft is a, it's part of the SaaS world, but it's also part of the hyperscaler world. So they're kind of in the epicenter and they've got one foot in there, one foot in the hyperscalers.

The hyperscalers have underperformed the market significantly. It's one of the reasons why I'm positive on global things. You asked me, and I didn't directly answer it last week, but you said, okay, you might be freaking people out. Where should they put their money? I'm like, well, if you want to be safe and make money this year, it's commodities, but it's also moving into Europe and emerging markets and Japan and other places because they don't have that much software. 90% of the software in MSCI world is US companies. So if

you don't want to be in the pain, go to the foreign countries because they have a lot more manufacturing and commodities. So I do think that the reality is if people want to get negative for this year, you could easily get to the point, particularly with the Chinese models coming out faster and faster and faster, with the likelihood of data centers not being built on time, the reality that we're heading into midterm elections, where right now it is starting to move. We're not only in the House right now, but we're starting to get in the Senate probabilities for Republicans to lose that. I think the data center AI pushback could be a bigger story as we get into the second half of the year. And I think you can make an argument that if the

hyperscalers and their ability to actually get this stuff done, they need the revenues to get their RPOs. They are spending the money. If these bottlenecks between memory and turbines and all this stuff really start to back up and the Chinese models keep accelerating, you could end up a point where people start worrying that this is real and maybe open AI is an issue when all this stuff comes to the market. When you already have credit weakening and you've got the stories I mentioned about other parts of the market, plus you have the auto lending side, you still have the commercial real estate side, it all starts to add up. And if that happens and you move equities down, then it turns into a very, very scary event for

a short amount of time. And I do think this year that is a probability that is greater than 25% that we get a shock of that magnitude in our heads, whether it's 5%, 10%, 15% fall in the S&P, I do think it's going to happen this year. What are you going to do in your video this week? I'm going to go in detail at the very beginning to emphasize that I think people are now at the stage where if you've ignored AI as a money manager, as someone trading, you don't have any time anymore. It's over. It's moving that fast that every day that you're not doing something, you're falling further behind. So I'm going to emphasize that. My paywall launched, so I'm going to emphasize that if you want to not only keep on top of things that I go more in

depth with, find investment opportunities, but also relentlessly talk about the information that we're going through in detail about why this regime is shifting it's there also the videos that i'm doing to help train people i'm finishing a paper on and i think you'll be interested in this i don't know if these are topics that you go through but i people have asked me the question well how do i have to think differently i don't know how to ask good questions and so i have two things that i'm fascinated with um being trained at quantico and like how they train anyone graduating Naval Academy, anything, and you're like, I want to go to Quantico. Okay, what do they do to your brain to constantly ask questions in uncertainty? Because that's what we're going

into. So in AI, you need to think more like someone who came out of Quantico. The other thing is you need to think more like someone who came out of the Santa Fe Institute, which is more of a systems thinking, get the whole puzzle thing in. That is the way that I'm teaching people how to use AI or at least how to develop an AI mindset. So I think for people who are interested in that kind of stuff. I'm going to talk about that. And then, of course, I'll go through all of all of the markets and all of the stuff that happened. It's been a busy week and hopefully it makes the Bitcoin crowd happy that this slide that I showed, which I'll go through, I really do think people have to start paying attention to the way Bitcoin is trading, not in an absolute basis, whether it's

70,000, 100,000, 40,000. It's not the equation. The equation that I care about in the chart that I'm looking at is Bitcoin relative to software. When that starts to go higher, everything changes for me. After you guys watch this video, please subscribe to his YouTube channel. The guy comes here every single week. He drops all this knowledge. We get to learn from him, me included. And all you got to do is you just hit the subscribe button. And then he thinks, wow, people are really enjoying this. It's that simple. That's the thank you. It's a digital handshake or digital thank you. Just hit the subscribe button and Troy will be happy. So thanks so much for doing this and thank you to everyone you guys were extremely nice at your

event i met a ton of people and uh the community is unbelievable it's because you're cool it's because you're cool no fashionable it's good looking it's because it's hrv plummeting you know or hrv is uh raising heart rate is plummeting people are like hey i gotta be around that guy it was very very good to be around everyone all right thanks everyone