The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin to $1 Million?! | Jordi Visser
Episode Date: August 29, 2026Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down bitcoin's historic recovery and the key levels that... matter, the fight between Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent over interest rates, and why Jordi is rotating more of his money into Ethereum and Solana. We also discuss AI agents, tokenization, and just how high bitcoin could realistically go.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp======================0:00 - Intro1:01 - Bitcoin's historic recovery & key levels to watch4:49 - South Korea & retail’s role in the bitcoin rally8:56 - Dogecoin, bitcoin & the fundamentally-driven move12:10 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent & the fight over rates22:52 - An AI safety expert's surprising take on bitcoin28:05 - Nvidia's $1B a day & the AI infrastructure trade33:43 - Why Jordi left Wall Street for real-time information37:39 - Is Nvidia stock underpricing its own growth?41:20 - Scarcity, debasement & the bitcoin-gold correlation47:05 - Stablecoins, tokenization & bitcoin as store of value50:53 - How high can bitcoin go?1:01:04 - Jordi’s upcoming video
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That number to me has to be $100 trillion in the future.
That's how much that the financial guardrails matter.
And I think Bitcoin, which will stay the most important of that group,
let's assume it ends up being 33% of crypto.
Well, then you're talking about $33 trillion, a third of it.
Let's go through where it is today at $2 trillion-ish.
So you can multiply that number by whatever you want,
10 to 15 and you can come up with whatever number you want.
it gets you up somewhere at 600,000 or somewhere at 800,000 to a million.
Ladies and gentlemen, my conversation with Jordi Vister this week is an important and great one.
Jordy talks about what's going on with Kevin Warsh at the Fed, why Scott Besson continues to try to
manipulate the yields down lower.
What's going on with Bitcoin and its continued rise from the dead?
How you should think about AI, NVIDIA earnings, and many other topics that transpired over the
last seven days.
Jordy's in rare form.
He informed me.
He entertained me.
and I think he's going to do the same thing for you.
Here's my latest conversation with Jordie Visser.
All right, Jordy, Bitcoin at 80K, you got new art.
You're back in Brooklyn.
I feel like, you know, all is good in the world.
What are your thoughts about Bitcoin's historic recovery?
Well, let's start with the tape.
We had a huge week, historic week, multiple standard deviation move,
as we talked about last week.
And we're consolidating that move.
82,000 is a natural,
resistance point. I think 74,000 is the support level that matters the most when you start
getting back towards the 200-day moving average. And I think any consolidation here is good.
I think overall, when you look at the tape, and I want to make sure people kind of take this
the important side, a lot of people reached out to me this week on Invidia. Marvell reported last
night and video is up big, Marvell's down. And they're asking questions like, okay, are you
adding here? Are you putting in stuff here? And I think it's important for people listening to
this to hear my response because my mindset has evolved since June. And I've been more focused
on the application side and the rise of agent applications and the fact that I believe the next
year is all about software that uses agents, applications including things like Eli Lilly that need
agents, everything that's using agents. Grockbot is another one of these components. And so I say to
people, if you have a certain amount of money, let's assume you have $100 to invest. I have more money
focused on crypto right now. And it's not just Bitcoin. It's Ethereum. It's Solana. I believe we are at the
agentic application side and that every year going forward, more and more dollars are going to go
towards the financial guardrails, towards making sure agents can do transactions. I think this is where
people's mindset should be. So I view crypto and Bitcoin and Ethereum and Salana all having a better
opportunity over the next 12 months, even though I believe that the AI names that I focus my attention
on the infrastructure side, I still think they'll outperform the S&P significantly over the next 12 months.
Maybe you get 50% in those crypto names.
We did that in 50 days during the first quarter.
So you have to just realize that right now momentum is still being unwound.
Hedge funds are still incredibly correlated to the AI infrastructure trade.
And we continue to see the leveraging happening throughout the hedge fund world because of the disruption
that happened in July.
And so as we talked about a few months ago, Korea, which was a huge participant in the crypto market, well, it was much easier to be involved in the AI market.
And I sent you something this week highlighting that, hey, volumes are starting to explode in Korea on crypto.
So I think once we get through a normal consolidation after a big move higher, I think you're going to continue to see this.
And I'll just add one more thing because I posted this in X.
Another thing for the tape is now we have the 200 day moving average pointed upward in both Ethereum and Bitcoin.
And if you go back and look at the times and I did this and I posted an X, where you stay below the 200 day moving average for a certain amount of time, and then you break back above it.
And then it turns up, how does Bitcoin do from that point moving forward?
And the numbers speak for themselves.
So I think we're in the beginning stage of something that people should be focused.
it's more on a year on and not just focused on what's happened over the course the last two weeks.
Now, you mentioned one thing that I just want to spend a little bit of time on, which is South Korea.
There have been some talk of what's going on in Korea, but I think people don't quite understand
how important that specific country is to the flows of Bitcoin and also the AI world.
I remember earlier this year I went to a conference and there was somebody who runs a very
large company in South Korea, and he said, you know, all of the retail investors, they're not talking
at all about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency.
And he was talking about that as like the industry, basically, the interest has died.
And all of that capital has shifted to the AI trade.
And they were going and buying SK and, you know, all these different things, including
2x levered, you know, type exposure, etc.
It does seem like it is rotating back.
And maybe even data point that I feel, but haven't looked at, you know, from, from a quantitative
standpoint, at night.
when that Korean market starts to open, Bitcoin does seem to surge.
You know, even the last couple of days, you start hitting right around the Korean open,
you start seeing Bitcoin, you know, get a little pop.
And so are they in control of the market?
Like, is that the most important country for Bitcoin right now?
No, I don't think it's the most important, but I do think it fits in with something I
talked about at, let's say, the worst of the bear market, which was the first stage of
crypto has to be a combination. It has to be driven by the energy of retail. And Korea is a big
retail part of the globe. I mean, their stock market was up significantly. And even with the, I mean,
the epic fall that we've seen and all the stories we've heard about margin, margin accounts being
liquidated and things like that, I mean, their market is still up more than almost any other
market in the world. And we're talking 60 plus percent. So they matter a lot in terms of the
fact that they definitely have that energy that you're looking for. But really,
Retail is the first phase of this.
We also get a lot of short covering.
And you've obviously seen a lot of short covering in crypto as well.
To sustain a move, Korea itself is not going to take it higher.
What needs to happen is people from an investment standpoint need to believe in the investment
side going forward.
And that's why I continue to bring it back to AI agents.
My video this weekend, I'm in the final stages of finishing it up.
But the YouTube this week, it's the first time that I'm spending time on a
Ethereum and Solana. I'm really focused on the network effects. I'm focused on tokenization.
I think I mentioned here that I was in the New York Stock Exchange back in early June or late
May at a tokenization event. I don't think people fully grasp what is happening and how important
this is. And it wouldn't matter that much except for the fact that the agents are here.
So I want people to think, Korea is just a function of the same thing happening in the U.S.,
which is retail. The catalyst for this was definitely Scott Besson, basically
saying we can't handle rates being above a certain level on the long end and doing
thing, showing this multiple times over the course of this month.
And so the old system is showing signs of not being able to handle rates.
At the same time, we have the crypto market going, uh-oh, here we go.
I don't care if it's printing QE, whatever.
This is an admission that the system is having problems.
At the same time, you have the crypto event at the White House.
You have the Clarity Act that's going on.
All of these things are getting people to move over, but I would not minimize the situational awareness month of July,
which took out the momentum kind of money-making side of retail or the energy of retail from AI.
And I don't think that AI trade is coming back for the next three months, meaning I think it's going to be more of an investor
trading market.
And I think the retail community and everyone here is looking for buy.
I do think 82,000 matters a lot.
I did highlight that, you know, as of yesterday, Salana was up 50% month to date and was the biggest
monthly move since 2024.
You're starting to see retail.
It's starting to be more fundamentally driven.
And that's what I care more about is less about Bitcoin, more about the fundamentally driven
side because that'll bring the traditional finance investors involved.
When we sit down to have these conversations every week, I always try to come up with one
data point that will make you smile and be surprised.
and I'm going to use your own framework against you this week,
which is Dogecoin is actually up, as of right now,
23% over the last month, and Bitcoin is up 22.
So basically the same, but Dogecoin does have a slight little advantage.
They moved on the same day.
I don't know if anyone was buying Dogecoin
because of Scott Besson's commentary in the middle of August.
What is the relationship between Dogecoin to Bitcoin now?
Well, so when I talked about it,
about Dogecoin, what I was really looking for is that it would break out of a moving average
because it sat underneath it. So it did break out. Here's the thing. I think the most important
part of what you're saying for people to hear, this move is very fundamentally driven.
I mean, I've said repeatedly, I wanted to see Ethereum outperform Bitcoin. Well, we've had a
break out and Ethereum over Bitcoin at this point. At the same time, I wanted to see Solano also do
well and Solana's outperformed Ethereum recently. This should be fundamentally driven. This
is why I've created an index with the tokens that are fundamentally relevant within
inside the space.
The meme stuff will be like GameStop.
It'll go through, but it's not a signal that I care about other than retail feels like
they can be involved and they can trade this thing from the long side.
What I really want to see is that it's fundamentally driven.
When I have conversations with people that are all over the AI infrastructure trade,
when they talk to me about what Nvidia said, how historic this was, and they know everything
up and down the line.
I always redirect the question, and I'm telling you, they're not there yet.
Okay, you're really smart on this.
Where are you on tokenization and where are you on stable coins?
Where are you on the payment rails?
They're nowhere.
The homework hasn't even been started.
This is why the biggest part of this trade is from January until whatever, August of next year.
So when I say one year that this is going to feel for me, this is my belief, that this will
be like Micron.
We were talking about Micron early last year when it was $60.
to 110 and then eventually got up to 1,300. That is the way I feel about crypto right now is I
don't think people have done the homework yet. The same way they didn't do the homework on the
AI infrastructure trade. And then you fast forward a year, now they're all in it and they're all
frustrated because it's not going up. To make money in these types of things where you're looking
for three times, four times, five times, ten times because of the exponential innovation, it has to be
on areas that people haven't done the homework on. And I'm just telling you, for the people I talk to
that manage a lot of money.
They are not focused on crypto.
And I think by the end of this year, they will be focused.
And I believe Solana and Ethereum, just as a general thing, are the easiest ones for them to
spend time on because they're all throughout YouTube.
They've presented at conferences.
I'll be showing videos this weekend that people should be.
I think the learning curve is starting now.
It is pretty interesting to see the relationship between these different coins.
I think you and most people watching this know that,
I'm exclusively focused on Bitcoin, but I think that the other things have, you know, important data that you can glean from.
Kevin Warsh, obviously the new Fed chairman, he spoke on Friday morning.
I think that there was some confusion maybe about his commentary.
On one hand, I saw a lot of people being like, oh, you know, he's leaving room for there to be rates rose or risen later this year.
And that's new information.
The other half of people are kind of like, hey, this was a pretty boring speech and there's
nothing new here that we haven't already heard.
What's your take on his commentary?
He didn't say much that wasn't already in the expectations going forward.
I think what people were looking for is, is there any indication that he's going to raise rates
in September?
And there was nothing in there, which is not too surprising.
But you're still around 40% chance of a rate hike in September.
I was looking more to see the movements, and I know people like to look at equities, but the best thing to do is the rates didn't move too much.
Neither did the S&P by the time we got on here.
But most importantly, the currency stuff was all within one standard deviation.
And the dollar has had a sharp fall.
So dollar yen, which to me is probably the most interesting because that is the line in the sand as the debate between whether Besson and Warsh are coordinated.
or not. I think Stanley Drucken Miller, who Warsh and Besson both have been involved with,
I think he kind of gave a chance here for Warsh to be, okay, focus on credibility at the same time
that Besson is trying to clearly continue the bet that his current boss, Donald Trump, has,
which is we're going to run it hot and we're going to try to have the humanoids and the AI agents
create more GDP at a faster pace than the debt is going to rise.
So I do think, Warsh said almost nothing that matters to me with regards to, unless he said
something where we're going to drive rates to higher levels to have inflation come down
now because we're not taking any risk.
You have to remember, when Jerome Powell was raising rates, he literally said, I would not
invest in equities.
We don't care about equities.
We want them to go lower because they're a part of the problem.
Financial conditions are as easy as they've ever been based on where credit spreads are and where stocks are.
And Kevin Warsh is basically saying, I want inflation to go back to 2%.
Great.
I'm sure if he also said, I want the deficit in the debt to go back to zero, that's not happening.
So I think a lot of this is for showmanship.
It's for credibility at the Fed.
But the reality is I don't think anything is going to change.
We go into September, and I want people to remember this.
Scott Besson intervened in the yen.
He's talked about using the TG.
to get rates down. He's talked about, he's talked about debt buybacks. He talked about increasing the debt
buybacks. It almost seems like every three days, he's jawboning to try and get long-term rates down,
but they're not really moving. So if he wants them down, Kevin Warsh can say whatever he wants,
but I'm going to go with the actions. And the actions are we want rates lower on the longer end.
And I don't think Kevin Warsh is going to raise rates in September when Scott Besson is looking for the yen
to relieve pressure.
And if he raises rates in a surprising fashion,
he's kind of offsetting what Besson is doing.
This speech didn't offset anything to me.
Now, speaking of Scott Bessent,
is this guy like the reincarnation of
Muayomato Mushashi or something,
where if you remember,
there was a photo that went viral a couple of weeks ago
where he had written like by $20 billion of yen or something,
right?
And somebody had taken a picture of it,
And it was the only thing that was written on the piece of paper.
Very interesting that that was the photo that was taken and went viral.
Then we get his commentary of, hey, I'm going to go and I'm going to double the purchases.
I'm going to try to get the long-term yields down, et cetera.
And then one of his good friends happens to write an op-ed that was 100% written by AI,
that Drucker Miller basically comes out and says, no, you shouldn't do this.
The politicians, they should stop spending money.
did they coordinate?
Do you think that there's a high likelihood
that Besson actually wanted Druck to write that
and critique him in public?
See, I read it,
and I think the way the media has gone with this,
I really don't think Stan attacked Besson.
I think he attacked Congress.
I mean, how can you blame the person in charge now
when we're at a 6% deficit and $40 trillion of debt?
It didn't happen under his wife.
watch. And I think if you sat in a room and having done that with Stan before and just having a
one-on-one conversation saying, okay, what would you do right now? Now, I honestly don't think,
and I'll be covering this week, if you ask me because of my belief in AI, I honestly would be
taking the bet that is happening with inside the equity market. Equities are growing rapidly.
P.E.s are going down.
that's kind of the thing that's happening is we're getting into a world where the stock market
is discounting a very, very different future than we all realize. It's changing terminal value.
Terminal value is out three to five years. I don't think you can look at the debt and deficit problem
the way it is today and not think that the next five years are very, very different than just
extrapolating numbers out. We have exponential innovation happening on one side. We have profit
margin's exploding. We have humanoid's on the horizon. I know people don't believe this because I can see
it after I posted something on this this week. If you're doubting the speed of AI, if you're
doubting what AI agents are going to mean, I believe there will be higher corporate taxes in the future
because of humanoids to help pay down the debt. Whether or not that happens, that's my belief.
I think what Stan was doing was basically speaking, as someone like Paul Tudor Jones did in the fourth quarter of last year, that Congress is a disgrace.
The polarizing situation of just spending money without ever taking any accountability is getting it in there.
But at the same point, there isn't much choice.
The stock market is 240% on its way to 300% of GDP.
These companies are making an enormous amount of money.
We have a distribution of wealth problem in the country that has people voting social.
socialists, like, everything is changing. And I don't think having long-term yields go up to
five and a half percent is going to change that. I think what he said that was important is,
it is the one gauge that theoretically measures the fiscal disciplinary side of what's going on.
Rates should absolutely be higher in a perfect world. But the problem is with the situation we have,
they just can't let rates going higher. It's opening up Pandora's box. So I don't think he was
attacking Besson as much as he was attacking Congress.
Yeah, my guess is that's kind of why I think that maybe Bessent was, he approved of this
getting written or maybe encouraged drunk to write it, right?
Was this idea of like, you're not saying anything I disagree with.
Like you're actually saying the exact same thing I've been saying, but coming from you
who's not inside the administration, maybe it'll catch people's attention more.
Yeah, see, and I think this is where the crypto side really merges in.
I think when you go through what Scott Bessent believes needs to happen.
And if there's one difference between Stan and Scott, Stan is a hell of a lot more wealthy than Scott is.
And there is an issue with that because whenever Scott speaks, he is speaking in the Donald Trump way of the redistribution of wealth in the country.
And so when you have a very wealthy person who's made his money in the hedge fund world and you have someone who's now a servant of the people,
I just think that there's a different message that is probably happening for people here that they should probably read through.
The reason I brought up crypto into this, I really do believe the administration and Scott in particular fully believes in reading his writing, having, you know, mentioning that he's quoting Satoshi.
You have to really understand that you don't have to agree with it, but I happen to believe it.
I happen to believe that stable coins are a reflection, that they will almost all.
all be dollar based. Having lived in Brazil, having sat in a room with Michael Milken, where we debated
something and he looked at me and he changed my view on something for life, if you open the doors to
America for all 8 billion people on the planet, there will be a line that will be never ending.
And it's true. And that just means that what, forget the country, forget the president,
forget all this. It's something about America and the dollar that matters. And so I believe
stable coins will be dollar based for the people.
people that are seeing their currencies, which is the majority of people on the planet, be taken by
the government. And so if you believe that's the case and you believe that his angle is, okay, we got
to keep the basis trade going because the hedge fund's got to keep buying treasuries. We got to let the
banks buy treasuries. We got to get deregulation on the bank so they can buy more treasuries.
We've got to do whatever we can do with the repo market and everything else to do this.
And oh, by the way, we need stable coins to be up to $3 trillion so they can buy treasuries
as well, all to let the humanoids and the speed of AI get us out of the same.
problem. It doesn't mean it's going to work, but I do believe that that's the bet, and I think
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archpublic.com. Now, I interviewed one of the AI safety experts earlier this week,
and Roman is a professor at the University of Louisville. He coined the term AI safety.
he really, I think, is sought after for his thoughts on AI and our inability to control AI, et cetera.
In my research leading up to that interview, I was surprised to find that he's a very big Bitcoiner.
And as I talked with him, I think I understood more as to why he believes Bitcoin and
AR are so related or intertwined.
After you listened to the interview, you reach out to me and said, hey, we actually have
a lot of overlapping thoughts.
and you even used AI to kind of analyze a little bit
in terms of his views and your views.
Talk a little bit as to maybe you finding a kindred soul,
like a long-lost brother in your view of these two technologies.
So one of the funny things about this,
and I didn't give you this backdrop,
my son, who again is heavily involved in building AI agents
and his internship and doing all this work,
he sent me an unsolicited text,
about Roman.
I didn't know who Roman was at that point, no idea.
And he literally said, what do you think about this?
Now, I had to ask him exactly which part he meant because he's also said that there's a 99.99% chance that the human race will be destroyed by AI.
So you have to go through that that was before I even saw that you interviewed him, my son had sent me this days before.
So when I saw that you had interviewed him, I went to go watch it.
And I was immediately taken aback because aside from his, in fact, I sent you the comparison,
aside from his kind of negative end game on this whole thing, that he's got the Elon Musk,
where Elon Musk has it as 20%.
This guy has it is 99.99.99.
There was so much overlap in our beliefs, but not just our beliefs.
I wrote, and I released a substack this week, saying the silent IPO, a paper that I wrote
last year on the fact that the distribution of Bitcoin, this was the normal time when the technology
is not ready yet. And this gets directly into AI agents. So your interview with him every step of the
way, what AI agents are going to do, the disruption to public stocks and public companies,
the inability for people to compete, the disruption that will happen, the fact that the financial
guardrails need to be changed, that AI will destroy all certainty, all trust. Everything fits into
the blockchain and fits into Bitcoin.
And so when I saw that, he's basically talking the same thing.
You have to invest in scarcity at this point, which I believe in.
So if you take what he said and you take what I wrote and you just summarize it into,
let's say, or I make it simple in two levels, he's been an AI safety expert and renowned
from my little readings all the way back to when machine learning really started to take off.
So in 2010 to 2013 is when he was being interviewed on this.
He was interviewed on Diary of a CEO last year, and that's where I saw, and that one had like 20 plus million views.
If you take his conversation then versus this one, the one big thing that he's come to is Bitcoin,
meaning this is something that he absolutely believes now is a hedge in the same way that I do against.
You get AI up to a certain intelligence.
That's what we've been spending time doing for the last 15.
years. So you have to remember to get it to an IQ of 150, you have to have all of this compute
power. You have to have all of this training. You have to get it there. That's where we are. At that level,
that allows AI agents to come. But eventually, you get to recursive self-improvement because
these guys are going so fast and they're working 24-7 and they're solving all problems because
they're getting smarter at the same time that there's billions of agents that eventually humans can't
compete with them. And so a company that is an organization with lots of people cannot bolt on
AI to survive. So if he's right and I'm right, there is at least some probability that the two of us
coming, one from a capital markets perspective, one from an AI coding perspective, there is no
overlap between our views other than this thing. I believe this is where if you say,
what percent of money should you hold in crypto or in Bitcoin? Forget.
a number, think of it as a probability. What is the probability that your investments will be disrupted
by AI? If you believe it's 5%, then put 5% in Bitcoin. If you believe it's 50, then 50, whatever the
number is. It's your own personal level. But that's the way I think if you take what he said,
what I wrote about this week, not ever hearing the person. I just thought it was amazing,
the connection between the two things.
I, when I looked at the AI comparison of your thoughts, that was my exact takeaway as well,
is two people from two different worlds coming to a very similar conclusion.
Usually is a pretty good sign that there's more investigating to do there.
Speaking of investigating, the stat of the week,
Nvidia is now doing more than a billion dollars of revenue per day.
I just want to let everyone think about that for a second.
One billion dollars per day in revenue.
I mean, this is insane.
What was your takeaway from their earnings?
I think the biggest takeaway was just how far above the street they are for next year in their own views.
And most companies that are growing like this, they usually are somewhat conservative to leave a little room for beating the numbers.
I mean, we're talking about 70% next year.
So when you're doing a billion dollars a day and then you think the growth rate is still near 100%, near doubling, I mean, it's just, it's something that you can't believe.
But then when you throw in the fact that off 2027 earnings with the earnings revisions that happened in the minutes after, I was looking at it this morning, I believe now for 2028, they've got 20 to.
for earnings on a $220 stock.
So the P.E's going out for a company still growing their revenues at this pace.
I mean, this is the opposite of the dot-com bubble where Cisco was trading it 100 times P.E.
And NVIDE is called the Cisco of this time.
You still have Michael Burry.
None of the permabairs.
Nothing could happen in the report for them to change their mind.
It's actually hilarious to go through X and they go searching for something in there.
See, Circular Finance.
I told you.
I just, I don't understand how people cannot be just shocked and in awe of the fact that,
okay, this is what they're doing.
We now have compute futures are out there.
They have all of the prices of the chips and the compute going forward further ahead.
If everyone gets the chance, I don't know if I mentioned this to you and kind of sending
you what I thought was interesting from the week from my side.
The Patel boys, the room.
mates, Dwarkash and Dylan.
Phenomenal one-hour talk in the summer doldrums of the last week of August.
Amazing conversation.
And they just talked about so many things that are so important on this front.
They didn't mention open source as a threat.
I mean, this is two very smart people.
One who interviews the smartest people in Silicon Valley and has to do his research and he's
renowned for doing insane research on these things, understand.
at a very high level, but then also his roommate, who he plays video games with,
who's the number one guy in semiconductors at the heart of it, and data centers, to hear
them talk about what's going on and basically say that we won't have enough compute ever.
And if you guys get a chance to listen to it, this is also about Open AI and Anthropic,
and the fact that there's a really interesting point that they have such high margins that
they have the ability of paying for all of the compute that comes online because they have orders
coming in for their intelligence, which is far better. So this is a very, very unique situation that
could end up with a monopoly to some degree on compute with open AI and Anthropic. So if you're
looking for a reason why Anthropic is going public, why Open AI is going public, these guys alone
are going to be the ones that need all of the compute. And so all of that lines up with
there's just, we're still in this thing where there's insatiable demand for compute,
and most people are scared of this and worried about it.
You know, what's interesting to me about these conversations is it's not just what I'll
call market commentators, researchers, podcasters talking about what's going on, but you also
see the people who are driving the industry sharing clips and podcast episodes of those people.
So it's almost like there is as much learning from the commentary group from the leaders of the industry as there is the industry leaders learning from the commentators.
And I think back to, I don't know, 15 years ago, there was not this much like open sourcing of knowledge and information.
And so people talk about, you know, the technology innovation, the talent, the, you know, obviously the abundance of intelligence coming from AI.
I actually think the amount of content on the internet
is accelerating everyone's lessons learned,
and it is a huge driving factor of why, to your point,
there's almost like this machine time now, right?
You basically have Elon Musk going on a podcast
or Jensen going on a podcast,
and they explain in great detail.
And that gives an idea to five entrepreneurs
who then figure out, hey, I can go take this and do this,
and next to you know, they push the pace of innovation.
But then they go on a podcast,
and then Jensen sees a clip online,
And then he's like, hey, well, based on that, we should be doing this.
And so it does feel like there's this hive mind online that is all working on a group project.
And the group project is like, how do we build, you know, ASI or AGI, and then how do we also build all the infrastructure necessary to run this?
And it's pretty cool, frankly, just to watch this all play out because you would never have access to these people, you know, without the last 15 years of, like, the digital content world getting to the,
the point that it is. So this is an important point that you're making. And while you were saying it,
the way my brain works is I start thinking about a lot of things that are connecting dots for me.
So I want to go back to something I've said a lot and take it into why I'm doing what I do.
Because people have watched this now. We've had, we have consistent numbers of viewers. So they know us.
They know you for sure. They've gotten to know me. And I've said that I hated school growing up.
And the reason I hated school, I definitely have the ability to process an enormous amount of information a short amount of time, which means the downside is I get very bored in static environments where it's taking too long.
So if you think about what's happening in the world right now, like a sporting event, and you watch a football game, and then Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, all they do is tell you the score of the game at the end.
Invidia beat earnings by this.
These are the highlights.
But if you watch the game, maybe the Giants won the game by 20 points,
but you know they lost the yardage game.
They lost the turnover battle.
They were lucky to win because there were three bad mistakes on the other side.
So you've watched the nuance of the game.
What Podcast X and all of this real-time information is,
is like watching a game and getting all of the nuances within it.
And all you're getting from the banks, someplace I work, by the time it goes through the legal scrumming, the bureaucracy of the place, the amount of phone calls, there's no way you're getting real-time information. You're getting some kind of a BS summary. So the reason I decided not to work in the hedge fund world anymore, my choice. People call still now because I built the business. They're like, why don't you come here? You can help us. We'll pay you money and do this. I don't want to work for anyone. I don't want to manage anyone. But part of the reason is because I'm learning so much by using.
using rock bottle all day, by using each of the AIs, doing the videos I do each week, forces me to do the
homework on everything that's going on. That's why I said right now, most of my time is shifting
towards Solana and Ethereum. I already know why Bitcoin will be something. I've already proven to
myself that Bitcoin is just the S&P 500 of the future. It's the purest AI trade. It represents
the ecosystem of crypto, but in the purest sense, the ecosystem should out be forming when we start
transition to where the crypto guardrails are actually being used and deployed. And the only way they can be
used properly is by AI agents. For those of you haven't seen this week, Elon Musk, when someone
asked, hey, I want to use Grockbot for a bank account, he said, oh, okay, yeah, here's what we'll do.
If you guys are worried that your money is going to be stolen by your AI agent, XAI will guarantee
you your money. Just go use it. He's trying to get entrepreneurs to use this stuff. The banks aren't
able to do this. They're not able to be on top of this. So I just think when you're thinking about the
world and particularly with your children. If you have someone that seems a little bit ADHD,
they're able to consume a lot of information. If they go to school, they're trying to get their
brains to stay with inside a vertical and actually get a major and do this. Part of what's going on is
you can learn multiple things very quickly, connect dots. And that's why I always say,
if you want to have an AI mindset, you have to think like a Quantico grad, not like a Harvard
grad. You have to be able to think about things that are outside the box that maybe you're not
thinking that are all thinking in bets.
It's why I recommend getting Annie Duke's
book. You have to really
be basing in the approach you have. New
information is going to come in all the time and you have to be willing
to say, you know what? I'm worried about open source.
You know what? These numbers on, why do we care
if Anthropics numbers are 67 or 72?
What does that actually mean at the
end? You guys are trying to take exponential growth
and convert some linear thing where historically
it's meant. To be able to do that,
I think you have to be doing what you're saying,
which is stay on top of the podcast, see
everything that's happening because what happens in a
is what used to happen in a quarter, and that just means the game is moving so fast that
you can't get just the final score and actually know what's happening.
Do you worry on the NVIDIA side?
It's only up 25% over the last year.
You know, one year, 25%, given the growth rate, given, you know, all of the stuff that
they were talked about, how exciting it is.
I think a lot of people would think that it should be up more.
Is that a bullish sign?
Hey, it should be up more.
It's not.
And there's more for this to run.
How do you look at, you know, 25% obviously is a big number given how big the company is,
but still it's not like it's up 50, 60, 70% like their growth rate is.
So two things just regarding the investing side that fit in with the first conversation
we had about crypto and Bitcoin.
Part of what drives a stock is how many people already know the situation and how many people
are already involved.
The second thing is opportunity costs.
Right now, there's a lot of stocks going up a lot.
And they're attracting a lot of dollars.
To move Nvidia right now, it's, I mean, $5 trillion is not an easy thing to move around.
Like it takes a lot of dollars, marginal dollars to get that thing to move.
This is why I always say, Nvidia is what, almost two times the size of the crypto market cap.
Like, it's much easier to go by crypto and say, hey, I think it's going to go.
So opportunity costs, number two.
Number three, and probably most importantly, do I think that Invidia five years from now,
that their business will be able to grow at this pace?
Absolutely not.
Do I think right now we're in the sweet spot of the infrastructure buildout?
Yes, we are absolutely in this.
Do I think that there will be competition?
Halapeno was released or is being used by OpenAI.
That's not going to disrupt their numbers this year.
It's not going to disrupt them next year.
But when you go through what happened,
for those who don't know, this is a chip designed by Open AI by AI.
At some point, the design starts happening.
And then when humanoid start going on, the question is,
will the advantage that Invidia has had,
the moat that they've had with CUDA and with the designs
and how quickly they've brought them out?
Will this get to a point where number one, this all changes?
The second thing is, will we get algorithmic efficiencies
to where we don't need as much?
Of course we will.
It's a very inefficient system.
The human brain does far more calculations than this can.
We need more power to do that.
So when you listen to Gavin Baker, when we actually go on the edge and we're able to do the kinds of work we need and people don't actually need that much, we're not there yet.
We still have another three to five years of needing a lot.
So the fact that it's this cheap to me means, hey, 30 to 50% a year is a good return.
So when you say it's up this much, I bet by the end of the year, we will have outperform the S&P.
And again, Nvidia has outperformed, even though it's been stuck in the mud over the course of the last two years, I think the AI infrastructure names are going to go through the same thing.
You have to think hard about this terminal value thing.
Go read the paper I wrote on the silent IPO.
If you don't truly have scarcity, which Nvidia right now has scarcity, but at some point five years from now, six years from now, it won't have scarcity.
the value of Nvidia is the total sum of the future discounted cash flows.
If all of a sudden that PV starts to change because you're like,
you know what, we won't need any GPUs in 10 years.
Well, then Nvidia is not going to be worth as much as it is.
So I just think that's what's gone on with Nvidia.
And I think people should pay attention more and more to this concept of what's true scarcity
in a world of AI.
Now, this idea of scarcity, I think, has become obviously debasement trade.
If I look, I was just looking at the Google Trend data.
And you look at, interestingly, the phrase money printer has pretty much become a meme
and is fairly consistent in the search trends since 2021, give or take.
Debasement looks like it exploded in popularity.
It fell, and now it's coming back.
So the idea of debasement, to me, is more of an index on the investment theme,
whereas MoneyPrinter is like a social construct.
It's a good meme, right?
I am surprised as to how much the debasement trade idea had kind of dissipated.
Now looking back, but it feels like it is rapidly showing up and people saying,
hey, oh my God, I forgot about this almost.
Like, I need to go buy this.
Bitcoin and gold correlation is the highest it's ever been.
Do these two assets just become, you know, almost proxies for each other at some point?
or do you see investors putting money in their portfolio into Bitcoin or gold for different reasons?
Like, is there, are they just married together in that correlation we should expect to stay as high or higher going forward?
And it's just like the debasement trade is one big trade.
Or do you see some sort of difference between maybe Bitcoin and gold?
So the debasement trade is the narrative.
I believe this is about scarcity.
So those are the two, if you had to pick, which two assets are the definitions of,
of scarcity, those are the two that have been chosen.
I mean, there's no other way around it.
Bitcoin has been chosen as the digital store of value,
and gold has been chosen as the store of value.
So if you believe that there's going to be abundance,
and every day that we get closer to AI agents,
that we get through all this stuff,
you can disagree with the end result of the way Elon Musk describes abundance.
But there's no way to say it's not closer to occurring.
There's just no way to say that.
that anyone who's used AI and who's managed people before,
I can run a business where I can do a lot of things
without needing a person.
And I used to need people for almost everything that I did.
What you described at the beginning in terms of GropBot
and being able to have now specialists,
when I wanna set up a task to do,
I just tell my chief of staff, go put this together.
It doesn't matter what it is.
That's why this weekend, one of the things
I'm doing for the subscribers,
is I literally built a prompt for Grockbot.
And you're going to be able to do a free trial.
I don't know when they started it or if they've started it yet.
But even if you get rid of your other LLMs for a month or don't go out to dinner or a game or whatever, a movie,
whatever you spend money on, the $200 for Grockbot for a month to just be able to take the prompt that I gave you and see what it can already do,
that you can have specialists that are tax people, whatever you want.
And these little cool little agents sitting there, the problem I think people have is, well, how do I do that?
And I'm giving them the thing of all you have to do is put this in.
It will do it for you.
That's the whole beauty of it.
So I don't believe in the debasement side.
I just think it's a narrative to give people happiness on this.
I believe the old system and the new system are merging.
One system is based on a cost structure that is zero.
The other one is based on friction and humans.
And to get those two to merge, there needs to be a narrative.
And the US dollar, or as Druck said, if you're going to manipulate long-term yields or attempt to, that has huge implications for the entire world, you're keeping monetary policy too easy at a time where the normal rate should be, let's say, above nominal GDP.
Nominal GDP right now is 6%, and I think it's understated.
So at 6%, we theoretically should have 10-year yields, let's say at least at 6%.
we don't have them anywhere there we're focused on like where are yields relative to inflation there was a
long time ago in the 90s where you go back and look where rates were a heck of a lot higher than they
are now when nominal GDP was the same level so i just think this debasement thing is a narrative for it
i believe this is about the world's merging and about scarcity becoming something that people want to
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should get into the mining game. Now, one aspect that I see people talking about online is this idea
of AI agents using crypto. I do think that we have talked in the past about this. And one aspect
that I keep coming back to is Bitcoin is actually not that great for payments, maybe for really
large payments could be valuable. Obviously, we now see stable coins becoming much more popular,
and I think that both traditional finance and agents, you know, potentially could use that.
But I see a whole slew of new companies and new projects trying to figure out, like,
what is going to be the money for the agents? Do you have opinions or have you spent time there,
less on the framework of agents need, you know, money, and more,
or so unlike, is it something that already exists in the world or is it something that is net
new that's kind of custom built for the agents?
At this point, my mindset is very simple.
Stable coins are the transaction side.
Bitcoin is absolutely collateral.
It is a store of value.
It is something that as the lending markets grow, as we talk about Coinbase this week, mortgages,
like posting Bitcoin for mortgages.
again, if you have and you think about what goes into a mortgage, what do they do to determine
whether you're a good credit risk? They assume the job you have today is the job you'll have
tomorrow. They assume the income you have today is the income you'll have tomorrow. They assume
the assets you own will be the assets you have tomorrow. And a lot of those assets and those jobs
are illiquid. You couldn't get out of them if you wanted to. So what is Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin
tells if it's posted and it's collateral, well, you know where you stay in real time. There's
You can get in and you can get out of it.
And this is why I think you have to separate what's going to happen from transactions.
tokenization will allow everything to go on chain and have value and be able to move its speeds that allow it again to immediately get net worth.
And it's not, you know, I've been doing a lot more listening.
And I do recommend, have you had Tom Leon?
I'm sure you have.
A number of times.
Yeah, yeah.
I think Tom, because he worked in traditional finance and has for a long time and thinks that way,
and he was a kidder P-body, which I have a lot of respect for people I've worked in over the years that started at Kidder P-Body,
I just think when you listen to his thought process on Ethereum and tokenization,
when you listen to Vlad and Robin Hood, and you really start to spend time on how they envision this happening with tokenization,
there's a lot of assets which have no value that are worth money.
IP is worth money, but there's no way to transact in it.
If you have IP and you want to offer it to someone to buy, how do you do that?
That was my original attraction to understanding the value of tokenization, of crypto,
of getting rid of the middleman and making sure that if Justin Bieber didn't want to give
his money to Scooter Braun by signing a contract with him and giving up 90% of what he would
had already created, but being able to keep 80%, letting the community have 10 and having it
programmable, all of a sudden, everything changes.
So I think the answer to your question is, I wouldn't overthink this too much.
Stable coins have already been chosen as of now as the transaction side, which Bitcoin couldn't
do.
So they've replaced what Mark Adreason wrote in why Bitcoin matters.
Where Bitcoin fits in is it is a chosen store of value.
It is the chosen asset that people migrate to when they're worried about disruption from
innovation from other things. So if you don't believe in Ethereum and you believe there'll be a better
one in the future, well, I think that's a higher risk than the belief of Bitcoin leaving.
Bitcoin has been chosen just like gold was chosen. We saw, we've seen how long gold has lasted
as the chosen store of value. That's where I kind of break these things down for people to think
about them differently. Now, we have a lot of people who watch this who, they like Bitcoin.
They hold a lot of Bitcoin. They've held Bitcoin through the euphoria's of the highs and
the doldrums of the lows. They have been through the roller coaster. They are hardcore believers.
You can't shake them from holding Bitcoin. But it does not stop them from pontificating on the single
most important question in all of Bitcoin. How high is it going to go, Jordy? How high can it go?
So I've learned my lesson after last year believing we'd already be at 250,000 and we're not
even close to that, not to get into direct numbers. But here's what I'll say about
Bitcoin in a back-ended way.
I do believe the transfer of assets from the traditional Fiat system with terminal value now
being disrupted by agents, that more and more people are going to increase their holdings
in Bitcoin.
And right now, that is the only place that I believe that you're going to see massive retail,
wealth management, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds.
Again, they will be moving money into Bitcoin as a head.
against the other side of the equation, which is, let's just say, 700 trillion in assets versus
three trillion market cap, or let's say four. Let's assume we'll be at four by the time this
airs. So at four trillion, that number to me has to be 100 trillion in the future. That's how
much that the financial guardrails matter. And I think Bitcoin, which will stay the most important
of that group, let's assume it ends up being 33% of crypto. Well, then you're talking
about 33 trillion, a third of it. Let's go through where it is today at two trillion-ish.
So you can multiply that number by whatever you want, 10 to 15, and you can come up with
whatever number you want. It gets you up somewhere at 600,000 or somewhere at 800,000 to
a million. So I am, that's a big number. And I think people will be excited to hear you even
talk about that number. I'm looking right now for what the Bitcoin percentage of, what is the
Bitcoin percentage of the total market? And if I just do some rough math real quick, it looks
like Bitcoin is somewhere in the ballpark of about 50%. I'm looking, there's different numbers,
different places, but it's over 50%, actually.
Total market cap I'm seeing right now is 2.7 trillion.
Bitcoin's 1.6.
I don't know if Bitcoin goes below 50%.
And part of this is like, if you actually take out all the things that have no value,
meaning that it's like somebody created some scam coin that has a $50 million market cap,
but like everyone is convinced it's actually a zero and it's just a zero.
just like bag holders and there's no liquidity.
If you take all that stuff out, Bitcoin may be closer to like 75, 80% of the market.
Right.
To have held that big of a percentage of the market for, you know, I don't know, 17, 18 years now,
I almost go to like the Lindy of like what would change that all of a sudden Bitcoin
be less than 50% of the market, right?
So again, like whether there's 33,
or 50 or 70, it almost doesn't matter.
It's a big percentage.
But I do think that if you're correct,
and the entire crypto market goes to $100 trillion,
Bitcoin may be a bigger percentage of that
and would be, you know, obviously a bigger number.
So if we use your numbers, that's exciting.
If it happens to be bigger, then that's just like icing on the cake.
So let me give you my thought on this because,
so when I gave you the $700 trillion,
if you go through the breakdown of them,
Stocks is maybe 150 trillion.
Okay.
So gold is very small.
I believe that Bitcoin should be equatable to kind of the gold plus stock side to some degree.
Now, I believe stocks are more representative of innovation,
which means that's more in the Ethereums,
the Solanas and the parts that are generating cash flows,
generating excitement that people kind of are gambling on,
they're betting on, they're going through.
While store of value is, I want to make sure.
at the end of the day that my house is stable, this is stable, this is where I put my money,
and that's where the safe investment goes.
So I can live with you thinking it'll be above 50.
I think for certain the next stage, you should see a rapid rise in Ethereum, Salana,
and all of the parts that are for the AI agent side.
So I do believe in the end, that might be the case.
But I'm going to guess if we get to $100 trillion over the next decade,
and Bitcoin gets to a million over the next decade.
Okay?
I think that'd be fun.
Yeah.
But I do think the innovation side would have to be driving a lot of the traditional finance
and the people that control most of the money.
If it were younger people, and I asked you the question saying,
my son believes Bitcoin back in 2020 was too boring.
So people are in prediction markets.
I think you're underestimating how much people like to gamble on things.
and how Bitcoin becomes a store of value and a safety thing.
So for those, and again, I've never sold any Bitcoin.
So I'm sitting and, you know, it's not my, well, actually, it might be because I've been buying more.
So I don't really pay attention to how much it is of this.
I know this, I have more Ethereum than I've ever had.
And that's because of my belief that I think tokenization and the stable coin rails,
what Stripe is doing that the agents will bring the hedge fund world in.
And the hedge fund world needs a narrative.
And it's very hard, the Bitcoin narrative is a very hard one to understand.
It's much easier for people to understand value, accrual, cash flows, things like that.
And that's where I think for at least the next three to five years, I just think the ecosystem side is going to benefit more than Bitcoin.
That's why I think the percentage will go down.
That's my view.
I'll leave you with this, which is there's a belief in the Bitcoin community that all the speculators, the gamblers, the shamblers, the shankers.
the shit-coiners.
They're all just future bitcoinsers.
They don't realize it yet.
Well, leave it at that.
To be clear, I actually think, and I've been saying for a while that most of the
crypto industry is dead, but I think that Bitcoin, stablecoins, tokenization,
and, like, equity infrastructure is very much real and going to continue to accrue value.
I recently was on somebody's podcast, and they asked me, well, what about hyperliquid?
And I said, look, it's not equity, but I look at it as infrastructure.
And so I think there are some of these like, you know, kind of tokenization, decentralized,
token-based things that don't fit perfectly in a bucket.
But just like in the traditional world, there's kind of very clear areas where value accrues.
There's going to be the same thing in crypto.
And so although people may not be used to me thinking about something like Ethereum,
you know, I started out mining Ethereum.
I understand what that value proposition looks like.
It is a different thing today.
Right, obviously it's not GPU based.
It's more proof of stake, all that.
But I don't know.
The market has not put it to zero,
and I think there's data in that.
And so the people who are like everything else
is going to zero, you know,
doesn't mean that you should change your theory on Bitcoin
or your conviction on Bitcoin.
But I do think that when I go talk to all the institutions,
they talk about Bitcoin, but they talk about Ethereum
and Solana.
and hyperliquid and these other things as well.
And so maybe the world's not as black and white
as the hardcore bitcoins want it to be.
Yeah, just always remember one thing.
And I've heard Tom Lee say this a few times
over the course of the last six months.
And I happen to agree with it.
And it's because we both have worked in Wall Street in banks.
There's a value in trust that comes,
even if the technology is not the best.
And that is one of the important
points when you're thinking about the guardrails and the transition we're making. Every single bank
is talking about tokenization, every exchange, every place around the world. Japan just said they want to be
completely on-chain by, I think, 2030. These are massive things that are super important. And when
you're dealing with money and you're dealing with people's savings and you're dealing with assets,
they care about speed, but what they care more about speed is trust. This is the reason why we don't
have full self-driving. And while by now, everyone, everyone,
must realize that a full self-driving car is never drunk. A full self-driving car might make mistakes,
but human beings makes mistakes every day. But because the government friction will always be there
until there's no more governments, the safest thing is to think about the places, not that are the
best innovation, not that makes the most sense. And that's why I keep migrating back towards the
Ethereum-Salna thing. Because right now, when I talk to people that I respect in the world that have
being business leaders, CEOs of other companies that have moved into crypto.
When they talk to me, they're mainly talking about what's happening.
And then things that keep being brought up are Ethereum and Salana, no matter where it is.
So if I started hearing something else, I'm in there.
And I get that people are going to have faster innovations.
And those will fit a niche.
And they will go up in value as well.
I just think when you're thinking about the framework, you have to think about what the Mag 7 is done.
There's not just seven companies in the S&P 500.
There's 493 other ones that are not as successful.
as those seven.
I think you got to start thinking of concentration with inside the crypto world for everyone there.
The whole ecosystem will go up, but I do think this is going to be the same situation
where the trust for merging is going to be very important to the final decision, not the best
innovation.
Makes sense to me.
All right, what are you going to cover on your video this week?
Anyone who is watching this right now, I never say pause, but you should pause of this.
You should go to Jordi Visser on YouTube.
Hit the subscribe button.
Help our guy out here.
It works hard for you.
you know, it's like a nice thing you can do for him, maybe for his birthday.
First of all, the company that I've used in my videos for a while is going to be shutting down OpenBB.
And so I've had to make a quick pivot to Google slide.
So there's going to be a different presentation.
But a lot of this stuff we've talked about, I'm going to go more details.
I am, like I said, Grockbot and Solana and Ethereum, but also in terms of the Bitcoin move,
the drug bestsend thing, the invidia earnings, all of that stuff.
But the main thing I want to just make sure people realize, if you listen to this,
what I do on the weekend, and before Anthony and I agreed to do this, one of the things he asks,
are we going to, can we do this on a Saturday and then release you on a Sunday, or is there
going to be too much overlap?
The way, and I think we've learned this, the way that I approach things is very different.
I try to tell a story with data-driven stuff so you guys can go do your own research.
It's supposed to be educational, less conversational.
Here, we're just speaking our minds.
I don't have a script.
I don't have anything.
The only thing we do is say, these four topics seem interesting to me,
bring whatever else you want to bring, and we go whatever direction.
I have it a little bit more organized for myself to be able to give you guys a story
that connects all of these pieces together in one, almost like a mini book.
So if you haven't seen it, go see it.
But I'll be covering all of those things.
I think it's the most important time for understanding.
Number one, the AI trade has reached a,
different level where people are crowded into it. Number two, everyone's looking for what the next
three and five bagger can be, and they're running out of places to go find it. And so what you're left with
at this point, in my opinion is if AI agents are the major theme, which they've been all year,
but now the infrastructure side has been overbuilt and everyone knows it, I fully believe a year from now
people will look back and wish they had paid attention to crypto at this stage. So I do think
it's going to hold lows. I think it's continuing to build the bottom here. I think if it does go,
it's going to go fast and I'm going to cover it.
I love it. I love it.
I think you're doing a great job, but you may not be scripted.
Obviously, I'm scripted.
As people in the comments, he's a fed, he's scripted.
All right, we'll talk again next week.
Next week in person.
Let's go.
In person.
