The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin vs Gold vs Stocks: The Chart Everyone Misses | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: January 31, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we unpack the Federal Reserve rate pause, the case for a more f...orward-looking Fed, and how rapidly advancing AI is reshaping inflation vs. deflation expectations. We also explore the scarcity trade across bitcoin, silver, energy, and semiconductors—and how investors can think about positioning as physical constraints collide with abundant software.====================Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.====================This podcast is sponsored by Abra.com. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account structure.Learn more at http://www.abra.com.====================0:00 – Intro1:24 – Fed’s decision to pause interest rates5:05 – Impact of the next Fed chair7:07 – Time, psychology, & bitcoin10:32 – Pricing assets in gold terms11:40 – AI factories, energy, and compute limits15:29 – Metals runs & investor fear18:37 – Software selloff & big tech risk24:02 – Trimming winners & rotating capital28:44 – Elon, Tesla, & SpaceX34:07 – Jordi’s Sunday video preview & AI urgency

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Starting point is 00:01:00 What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a
Starting point is 00:01:42 specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. If we need certain things in a certain amount of time, we can't get them if they're physical. We can certainly get them if they're based on software. And so Bitcoin fits in this world where I think it is a scarce asset. Things that are scarce are getting more valuable. And I think people just need to be a little bit more focused on if it goes down to seventy thousand before it goes to two hundred thousand and it takes only a month to get to two hundred thousand. Pay attention to silver. People got frustrated, ended up watching something go up dramatically in a short amount of
Starting point is 00:02:21 time. All right, guys, Jordan and I are both traveling, but we are not going to miss a single week to bring you guys all of his thoughts. Jordan, I thought a great place to start the conversation is the Fed decision this week. They obviously decided to pause on the interest rate cuts. I probably disagree, but I don't know how you think about this. What do you think about the Fed decision? So whether I agree with the decision or not, I understand, or we learned a lot about how they're thinking about this. And this this problem is going to be there even when the new Fed chair takes over. It's something I think people have to just come to terms with.
Starting point is 00:03:01 And the reason I say that you are focused on inflation heading lower at the same time that same time that's happening. Oil prices are up over 10% in the last call it 10 days. Silver is obviously up dramatically. DRAM prices are up dramatically. we're going to see shortage we're going to see prices go up dramatically for iphones for computers for everything because of d-ram prices silver prices that's all coming uh so there's
Starting point is 00:03:29 gonna be pockets of inflation and it's gonna again bring some issues that come in do i think that the labor situation we also had the the atlanta fed wage number come out i mean it was a big drop we're still we still have a problem with the labor market and i think that's going to be an issue going forward so i don't agree with what um with the fact that they're not being more aggressive uh but i understand that they can't really be cutting rates aggressively when you've got inflation kind of poking its head you've got parabolic moves and at the same time you have a stock market that has moved higher and is at all-time highs now when you look at the fed making this decision uh it's very complex there's a lot of inputs that they're obviously paying
Starting point is 00:04:12 attention to. And one of the things that I think I am probably more sensitive to, you know, yes, inflation is one key component, but it does feel like they don't get to make a decision on a day to day basis. And the speed at which this is all moving is very different than maybe you would expect in a normal economy. And so to me, there's a bigger risk of them falling behind or, you know, kind of getting behind the curve. Do you worry about that at all? Yeah. You know, I wrote a paper on time and just this whole concept that when things are moving at an exponential pace, everything is kind of vulnerable here. If you're a VC or you're a private equity firm or a private credit firm or anything related to long duration software where valuations are high, what is
Starting point is 00:05:03 happening in all these markets, including commercial real estate, if we're not going to have any people working in five years, what do we need commercial real estate for? If we're going to have deflation in humanoids in five years, why are we going to have rates at anything but zero? This is the problem, is that we've entered a world where AI is moving so fast, faster than we can deal with it as a society. The Fed should be thinking more forward-looking. Now, this is the argument that Scott Besson has made. This is also what Rick Reeder has agreed with, which is this is more like coming out of the internet and the way that Greenspan dealt with things where he was willing to cut rates, even as the stock market was raging. I think we're going to be in that
Starting point is 00:05:44 debate for a long time because, again, the acceleration that's happening on artificial intelligence that we've just seen in the last three months with the software side, the disruption that it's having, all long duration assets are under question because of this. And I think that's going to be a focal point for the Fed. They're making decisions based on data today and not focusing on five years from now. Now, there's rumors about who's going to be the next Fed chairman. We've obviously seen Hassett. We've seen various people kind of put up. The latest one is Rick Reeder. Do you take anything away from that rumor being floated? Do you think that Trump is kind of testing the messaging? What's kind of your takeaway? Well, let's go through
Starting point is 00:06:25 the chain of events i mean waller was up for it then has it was and then warsh went into the lead every time someone gets the lead whether you agree with donald trump or not since he's making the final decision he seems to really be on x focusing on what people are saying and the biggest critique so in in has it you end up with a scenario that people are worried about the credibility of the fed they're worried that he's just a yes man for trump warsh gets in warsh has been hawkish isn't tight. He was hawkish during the great financial crisis. It's very difficult for you on one side to say, okay, you're going to cut rates, right? We need them to be down 100 basis point, which is clearly what Trump wants, and then put someone in that doesn't agree. So he's
Starting point is 00:07:09 had to find someone I think that is credible, which Hassett clearly was not, and at the same time believes what he believes, which Besson believes too. And that's why my gut tells me that the reason Reeder has ridden up the ranks is because he agrees on those two points. He believes rates should be lower because we should be thinking ahead. I think the only way that you can do that is if you're less academic.
Starting point is 00:07:32 And he is the least academic of the group. And I wrote a piece on this, that the Fed is gonna have to be less academic going forward. It's gonna have to be more forward-looking and caring less about the past. And I think as investors, you've had to do the same thing. So that's where I think this is coming down is that Reeder has taken the lead
Starting point is 00:07:48 because Trump wants to get someone to lower rates. And to do that, you have to believe in technology and the disruptive impact. I think the biggest hurdle to getting Rick Reeder to be the Fed chairman is you're going to have to get him put on a tie rather than have two buttons undone and looking like he's, you know, ready to take on the world. So we'll see how that goes. You wrote this piece about time and Bitcoin this past week, which I thought was really good. Maybe explain a little bit about your thesis here. Well, you know, this was really, we were at the event last week, the crypto event, and the frustration was clearly there. Bitcoin's been, you know, for the lack of a better word,
Starting point is 00:08:28 a nothing asset now for over a year. And it's clearly frustrating people. It was a very different environment than what we saw last year when we were there. And I wrote the piece because we get caught in this, it hasn't been moving for this amount of time, which is true. But the reality is, as we've learned from silver, silver was, you know, unchanged not that long ago since 2012. Now, all of a sudden, it's gone through the roof. We're starting to, you know, people are out there saying, you can't look at arithmetic charts, you have to look at logarithmic charts. And the reason is because it didn't move for a long time. I think what we're in is a world where everything is moving faster the pace of ai is moving so fast that every time someone wants to hey this is x
Starting point is 00:09:13 percent above the 200 moving average i want to get out of it and part of what i wrote in there is just a psychological belief with people which is if you buy apple to you know if you bought apple at two dollars and it went from two dollars to a hundred dollars in a short amount of time you're gonna sell out of it um because your brain is gonna be like that doesn't matter i don't want be involved if on the other side it takes 20 years to get there same price you're not going to get out of it as quickly so i think the issue that really comes down for people is we're at this point where time has changed and the easiest way to say it is when dario modi and demis hasabis and all these scientists come out and they say every year in innovation is like what a decade was
Starting point is 00:09:55 well by definition that means that when we reach the point of this stuff going software stocks can quickly go to zero. They can. Not all companies will go to zero. But if you're not able to adapt quickly and pivot your business, which is really hard for big businesses, you're vulnerable. If all of a sudden silver becomes an issue and people realize we don't have enough silver, they start buying for the next five years. Think about the deals we've seen. Elon Musk did a deal with Samsung back in July for chips, $16 billion and actually bigger than that. Nvidia did a deal with Samsung in October. We had this week Corning, which I've brought up on this show, Gap Tire. And the reason it Gap Tire is because optical fibers were clearly running out because
Starting point is 00:10:36 Meta did a $6 billion deal with them. We are at the hoarding stage of physical stuff. Software is abundant. You can make as much code as you want sitting there and wherever you are right now. I can do the same thing. We can't go out and mine silver. We can't go out and actually find any other than it being in a drawer, maybe of a flea market or somewhere someone's trying to sell it. So I think we've reached a point that time is moving so fast that people have to realize if we need certain things in a certain amount of time, we can't get them if they're physical. We can certainly get them if they're based on software. And so Bitcoin fits in this world where I think it is a scarce asset.
Starting point is 00:11:13 Things that are scarce are getting more valuable. And I think people just need to be a little bit more focused on if it goes down to $70,000 before it goes to $200,000 and it takes only a month to get to $200,000, pay attention of silver people i got frustrated ended up watching something go up dramatically in a short amount of time well what i thought was interesting is nick zaba who's obviously been a very famous uh cryptographer and and uh engineer and now a big bitcoiner for a number of years uh he was talking about the fact that bitcoin had peaked in gold terms and so he was looking at it more from that may be the uh cycle to pay attention to not the bitcoin denominated in dollars do you ever think
Starting point is 00:11:53 about, you know, the stock market now is flat in gold terms. If you go back to the global financial crisis, you know, Bitcoin priced in gold, like, does that ever enter into any of your evaluation? It does at this point. I literally, in this weekend's video, I'm putting it together now. And I have a chart in there of gold relative to the S&P back to, you know, 1970. And it peaked magically enough in 1980, which was when the personal computer basically got credited as starting. Personal computer or IBM actually came out in 1981. But the reality is between the Apple 3 coming out in 1980 and IBM's computer coming out in 1981, that was basically the peak in gold relative to the S&P. I have said before, and I will continue to say that I believe what is
Starting point is 00:12:43 happening right now is that we are entering a world where all companies, all enterprises, all mega cap stocks are going to have trouble dealing with artificial intelligence. And it's the rise of the entrepreneurs. And it is basically a slow moving problem for all of the bigger companies. Now, they will be at a point where they'll be replacing employees. But what we're seeing with the hyperscalers and what I want people to understand, we've already run into a capacity problem. We can't run as much code as we want to want to run because there's no cloud for it, which means these businesses are going to be forced to buy their own AI factories, which is what Jensen Yuan has talked about. When you buy your own factory, meaning you're making
Starting point is 00:13:21 your own tokens, well, great. Now you're going to be CapExing. This is going to be a very challenging thing to get through this. So I think we're at kind of the inflection point, but the only way it works, and it's a race for getting the physical side. So hardware should be bought, anything that needs to create compute. And that goes farther than just semiconductors. It goes farther than silver, farther than copper, because you're getting into the energy side. And that's one of the reasons why oil went higher, and you're going to start to hear me talking more about it, the cost or input of silver back in, in fact, you probably haven't heard this, but this will be on the video. In 2019, silver's percentage cost for solar was 3%. It's now up over 30. So that means
Starting point is 00:14:07 that solar is getting more expensive and the cost or the input cost is becoming more silver heavy. Now, silver could easily go up another three, four times from where it is because of the fact that we don't have enough supply, and it's needed in the military, and it's needed for the data centers and the phones and everything else. So you're starting to get into the world where it has an impact on solar production, which has an impact on power production. We have gas turbine shortages. This is one of the reasons why eventually it trickles down to oil, it trickles down
Starting point is 00:14:37 to aluminum, it trickles down to everything, because we're looking for replacements for everything. When you get into a commodity bull market, which we haven't been in for since 2003 to 2008, you end up in a very tricky situation where everything that's physical we try to get and use. And I think that's what's happening in the market. And I think we're in the very early stages because right now the adoption is just starting to pick up in terms of AI. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. My friends at Figure are giving away $25,000 in USDC as part of their democratized prime sweepstakes. Here's how it works.
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Starting point is 00:16:22 and understand the risks before putting capital to work. Go check out Figure and their Democratize Prime sweepstakes today. We're going to talk in a second about the software companies, you know, kind of falling off the cliff and people trying to pick the bottom but on the metals i see a lot of people talking about man i missed you know gold silver copper platinum but now i'm scared to buy in because i think it's the top uh how do you think about you know assets that are on these you know kind of very significant runs and you know investing not investing picking a top you know realizing it's going to keep running you just mentioned silver could go up three or four more times you know just talk through a little bit as to like if you're an investor thinking about
Starting point is 00:17:00 these assets that are already in a bull market, how to maybe evaluate it? Well, the first thing is, and I just gave you some of the solar side, it's getting to a point where the largest demand for, because solar is the largest demand for silver at this point, you should start to see less demand for solar and you'll start seeing switching to some degree for, okay, let's do coal, let's do natural gas, let's get generators, whatever the case is. The problem is silver is also used and needed, like I said, in the military. This is a critical mineral. There's a reason why they have the name critical mineral. And I want people to fully grasp this. Rare earth, silver, these things all fit into it. I mean, the U.S.
Starting point is 00:17:41 has basically been making announcements after announcements since the tariff situation. So my belief is that all of these things are going higher. At a minimum, here's what I'll say. Even if silver, let's say it peaks at 125, it goes to 200, it falls back to 100. The main thing I can say to everyone is it isn't going down in price when we need it for all those S-curves hitting at the same time. I wrote a piece for 22V this week where I highlighted the S-curves are all happening at the same time, meaning we're at that point in the S-curve where all the demand kicks in and it's happening at the exact same time. We need it for EVs. Autonomous vehicles are getting revved up. Autonomous trucks are getting revved up. Humanoids, drones, everything in the military.
Starting point is 00:18:26 We're rebuilding the military. You know, I don't know if we talked about it last week on the show, but I've talked about it before. Certainly, we ran out of ammunitions. I mean, munitions for the United States were down at very low levels post-Israel from getting to them and also Ukraine. We need to rebuild the military. At the same time, Europe is building up their military and doing it for the first time. And you've got people like Jeff Curry used to be a Goldman Sachs doing interviews saying this is as big for Europe as it was for China in 2003 to 2007. I'm not getting into the numbers of the commodity needs there, but both of those are price insensitive. If you're trying to have military supremacy, there's no price for this. People should go back and look
Starting point is 00:19:05 at what happened in the United States during World War Two and what we did for stopping people from using copper and what we had to do to actually go through it. The price was infinite. I think we're at a point right now where people just have to realize the only thing that could really make this pull off dramatically is honestly, if commodity, if energy prices went up so high that there was nothing to do to slow down the AI, I just think commodities at this point are insensitive because of the small cost for these critical minerals as an input. The only one that's starting to reach a level that people should pay attention to right now is solar. All right, let's talk about software. You mentioned earlier, like it is much easier to create software. I see
Starting point is 00:19:41 people on a daily basis, posting online, emailing me, I even see some people inside of our companies who are building products that can do things that entire businesses can do, whether it is CRMs, or, you know, sync with my Gmail and my calendar, or maybe it's a document signature, you know, type platform, etc. We see software companies going down. And my guess is that those things are connected. If it's easier to build software than software companies now have some questions from investors. What is your analysis of why the sell-off is so severe? And is this a temporary thing or is there a structural change that's happening in the market? Well, first of all, because we've talked about it now three weeks in a row,
Starting point is 00:20:22 I mean, there's a bigger story here that people have to start to go through. Are big, you know, are Salesforce.com, Adobe, are these big companies that have Microsoft, are they going out of business? Absolutely not. Is there a question about their ability to pivot and compete with what's happening? Well, right now, since November 28th, 29th, when really Opus 4.5 came out, you know, I posted this in X, but it's been body blow after body blow. Every week there's something else. It's Opus 4.5, then it's Claude Code, then it's Cowork, then it's Claude Bot. And then this week, X is littered with showing how people are using Claude in Excel and how great it is. Well, that's Microsoft's honeypot.
Starting point is 00:21:11 How can we be showing Claude in Excel when it's Microsoft's product and never is there a co-pilot thing in X viral? Never. No one even talks about it. So the issue is for me on this, we're seeing Anthropix revenues go through the door. It's a company that is very tiny relative to Microsoft. Microsoft has had three years since ChatGPT was released. Initially, they were the ones thought that they would win. We were talking about numbers that were massive for them
Starting point is 00:21:40 because they had a stranglehold on the enterprises. Everyone has Microsoft inside the enterprise. So how are they losing this? It is very difficult for companies to change and be able to pivot because they'd have to bastardize their own product and compete with it. And so what they do is
Starting point is 00:21:56 they're trying to figure out ways. Microsoft has two issues. One is they don't have a model, meaning they're not one of the frontier model companies. So they're competing to some degree or they have to use their model. The second thing is, though, they're in the cloud business. Well, you know what the cloud business needs? It needs data centers. You know what the problem is with that? They're competing again with the model companies, which are basically able to sell this stuff and are seeing the revenues grow. So Anthropic this week came out and said the revenues for next year are likely to be $55 billion. This was a company, I believe it was $1 billion, then it was $10 billion. Now they're forecasting $20 billion for this year. I mean,
Starting point is 00:22:35 it'll be above $20. They're raising money. I heard it was five or six times oversubscribed on most podcasts. They're raising $20 billion. This is just a scenario that software companies have to be re-rated. There is definitely uncertainty five years from now whether they'll be able to compete. So you go back to what I said about long duration assets. These are long-duration assets. They are growth companies, so they assume they're going to get growth. And secondly, they're priced in price to sales. They've had high multiples for a long time.
Starting point is 00:23:03 So I think you could argue the fact that all we're seeing right now is letting the air out of the companies. But when you have Microsoft down 10%, when you have ServiceNow down 10%, and you have SAP down 17% in Germany, all on the same day, all on earnings reports, clearly, at this point, the market is saying, you know what? we don't need as many. And I just want to remind people the size of salesforce.com is not that much off of Chevron. For those people who watch my video, I've been saying that one of my favorite ways to play this rather than try to short software, because it's already at low already been beaten down is to be long Chevron against it. Cause at the time they were the exact same market cap. When I pitched a trade this month, if you have that trade on you're up 40% for zero. So Chevron's up and Salesforce is down.
Starting point is 00:23:53 There's never been a move of this magnitude since the day Salesforce got into the industry. I think we're at the beginning of what will be a mega massive rotation. And the rotation is out of software, so abundance, things that can be created overnight. It's just going to get easier. And it is a world where you want to be long the things that are creating the intelligence and needed for that that are scarce. Micron technology, all the same. I know they've had a big run, but you know what Elon Musk said last night on Tesla's call?
Starting point is 00:24:24 He says we will be out of memory in three years. We're already out of memory. He said he's building a fab for memory. If Elon Musk is telling the world this is not over in terms of the semis, we won't have the chips, I think people should really pay attention and just realize we are at a very, very historic inflection point where software has dominated for a long time. it will take a long time for this to normalize. And I think we're still in the very early innings,
Starting point is 00:24:50 but we're through the part where from this point, it's probably going to be more challenging if you've got trades on, but I would still be long Chevron over salesforce.com as a thematic trade that'll last the entire year. Now, people have been listening to you and I do this now for a number of weeks, maybe even months.
Starting point is 00:25:06 They may have some of these positions that you've been talking about, whether it's thematically or individual names. And there's a lot of people who I talk with who those positions have run. And some of them didn't even come from, you know, you and I talking. They have Iron or they have Micron or, you know, whatever. And one of the things that I've been talking with them about is how do you think about selling, trimming, risk mitigating, etc.
Starting point is 00:25:30 on something where you bought it, it ran up a lot, and now you're sitting on a fairly material position. You may still be bullish about, you know, the future prospect of this asset, but you also feel almost a fiduciary duty to yourself to say, hey, maybe I should be taking some chips off the table. Do you have any advice or kind of insights in terms of how you've done that in your career that maybe people can borrow? Yeah, so I'm doing that now. I am reducing because, I mean,
Starting point is 00:25:58 Micron, from the first time that I talked about it, it's up seven times. So I got in some on liberation. That's good. But here's the thing. Do I think it can go up seven times from here? No. Do I think there will be supply coming online
Starting point is 00:26:14 in the next three years? Yeah, it's still cheap. I still think it's going higher, but do I think it peaks around, I don't know, 700, 800, 1,000? Yeah, well, that means by definition, let's assume it goes to 1,000. You got in at 60.
Starting point is 00:26:30 Well, that means right now we've done a lot of the trade. It doesn't mean we're done, but in percentage terms, we've done a significant part of it. So I've kind of looked at as I want to be reducing there and I want to be moving some stuff into things that I think will still benefit that will go up more. If you ask me over the course of the next year from here,
Starting point is 00:26:50 I think Corning will outperform Micron. I still think Corning is at a very early stage, even though it's had a big run, because I think optical fibers, Meta just said to a signal, we don't have enough, and they're going to benefit from the glass build-out for the phones and the computers and the autos.
Starting point is 00:27:07 So I look to look for other themes that maybe haven't run as much. in terms of like silver, the silver miners to me are a great place to be in because they've traded at a discount relative to the metal. And the reason is because these are cyclical businesses where you think eventually silver will reach a level and it'll collapse. That I don't think is going to happen this time. So energy companies to me traded cyclical levels. So at the same point, do companies like Corning, Micron is still cheap. So I'm still in Micron, but I've reduced the position. I'm looking for other things. But remember, for everything
Starting point is 00:27:41 that we're talking about that I've been right on, I'm really been wrong on MicroStrategy and I've really been wrong on Bitcoin. So there's always something in the portfolio that's not working at a given time. I still believe in those positions. So I've been adding to those as well. I added to them, you know, when Bitcoin got under 105, I did it at under 100. I did it when it broke back above 92 so those haven't worked but a lot of that is coming from a rotation in my portfolio i'm assuming that eventually i'll get a parabolic move there i still believe that's a place to go but that's what it is i constantly am looking for new fresh ideas to move into i have a lot of these semiconductor names that are analog based that i don't think have participated yet in the same way
Starting point is 00:28:21 so i've also mentioned pterodyne i've also mentioned a lot of names like that lattice semiconductor these are all names that still have a long road ahead of them i mentioned asml that that one's had a big run. I still think that has a long way to go. So I look for other positions when something has had that kind of a run, but I'm still going to be in it. years and has processed over $2.5 billion in loans to date. With Abra's loan product, you can access up to 50% of the current value of your collateral. There's no minimum or maximum loan sizes, and Abra can handle nine-figure plus loans. Rates are extremely competitive in the 4.5% to 6.5% APY range. Loans are open term, meaning you can keep borrowing against your collateral without
Starting point is 00:29:21 closing a loan as the price appreciates. Buy a house, take a trip, make a large purchase, or diversify your investments without selling your Bitcoin. All deposits are held in secure MPC wallets and there is no re-hypothecation. Find out more at Abra.com and tell them Pomp sent you. Again, that's Abra.com and tell them Big Pomp sent you. Makes a ton of sense for me. One of the other big pieces of news is SpaceX and XAI
Starting point is 00:29:49 are now contemplating potentially merging in the private market before SpaceX goes public. And SpaceX already made a $2 billion investment, I think, in XAI. Tesla just announced that they, in January of this year, has made a $2 billion investment. What's going on in Elon's world? Elon is really focusing on merging these three companies, or at least making people think that they're one.
Starting point is 00:30:18 I mean, he's talked about it on almost every podcast I've listened to for the last, I want to say, six weeks. The Moonshots podcast in particular. But then the one that he had where he was interviewed by the Indian gentleman, where he said, what is your fascination with X? And he basically said, well, it's kind of the crossing point. So if you think of Tesla crossing with SpaceX, it's crossing with XAI. We have all of this stuff. I mean, Elon has just really thought about everything going forward. and i think he realizes how important capital raises are um spacex is going to be valued at over a trillion dollars xai will be valued i don't know 300 to 500 billion and tesla's obviously already over a trillion dollars but for the build out he's at the big phase now um you know he's gonna he needs a lot of rockets he needs a lot of humanoids he needs a lot of cars he needs a lot of
Starting point is 00:31:07 batteries we're finally at the build out stage and i think his primary thing is to make sure that that this story has all the capital needs that he can get because he's going to have to do a lot of fundraising. And I think that's everything that people have thought about. He has really thought ahead on everything from the vertical integration side and the scaling side. I think now he's thinking about how important the capital is going to be
Starting point is 00:31:27 because he's going to need a lot of capital to build out the stuff that he needs. Do you worry at all about the public markets not liking, let's just say, you know, SpaceX and XAI, but even if he puts all three of them together, is there a risk that he's taking here it's not just like elon makes money for everyone and so he's got a free walk to doing this i i would say if these were normal times um and i say normal times let's go back to the time side
Starting point is 00:31:55 you have to think about how long these things will play out like you normally would think about a business and you make decisions i mean i don't think you've worked at a i worked at morgan stanley i'm telling you right now things cannot move fast fast at an organization that big i mean they just can't starting around september everyone starts stressing about what they're going to get paid and everyone kind of doesn't want to make mistakes they don't want it so that becomes the inertia but think about what september is you just finished the summer time like big companies there's just no way to move fast and so for xai and and tesla at this elon is on a different time schedule than everyone. He works around the clock. He's a workaholic. I think when he does
Starting point is 00:32:41 things, he's doing them because he sees how fast things are moving. And when they're not moving that fast, he doesn't really care. I really do think people do not pay enough attention to what he says and does. We've talked about how much people minimize them and how much they don't believe in them. By the way, if people want to guess which coast I'm on, that's the sun coming up in my face, gradually lighting my eyes up. So I'm definitely not Miami anymore. Definitely the sunset is coming or the sun, the sunset is basically going in my eyes. I think Elon is the person people want to focus on for these things. And I think he's saying he needs capital now. He's in a race for it with everyone else. And he believes that we are at that intersection point.
Starting point is 00:33:16 I think it's a reason that people should be focused again on Tesla. I think it'll be the best performing Nike seven name this year. I think it has everything going forward, the robo taxi side, but also anything with SpaceX and XAI is just saying that we're at that point of the, let's just say the merge of everything happening at the same time. Yeah. It does feel like, um, Tesla is the purest way to play the AI and robotics out of any company in the public market. Would you agree with that? Yes. I let's put it this way. I don't see how people haven't figured out that Waymo can't compete with Tesla when it wants to just run. He can make cars very quickly. Humanoids, how can these smaller companies, they might have humanoids that
Starting point is 00:34:04 work as well. Maybe they even have one that works better. You still have to have the manufacturing and the scaling and the vertical integration. You need to have the parts. You need to think about it. He just has thought about all these things. And it's not to say that he won't have shortages because he will. But Elon Musk has thought about these problems. He's talked about them for years. His first thing was that Tesla was not a car company, and yet people still chastise him when the car isn't going to make enough money. So I do think that he's the only place that can scale fast enough. He retweeted me today because I posted a chart of Tesla's free cash flow. And it's basically just this line that's straight up in the air.
Starting point is 00:34:48 I know every other electric vehicle maker is down to the right. But his comment was, not for long. and i think he was talking more about the electric vehicle categorization than he was about anything else yeah he's got to spend a lot of money too i'm telling you of course uh give people a little preview what's the uh video this sunday and then uh anything you want to talk about with the hrv work that you've been doing so on the uh on the video for the week obviously it's the end of the month. We went through the first month. We've gone through not only Microsoft's earnings, but we've gone through other MAG7 earnings. Meta's was obviously very good. Apple came out after the
Starting point is 00:35:29 close today, blew away the iPhone. So all those people that I said, I'm buying an iPhone. If you are thinking of buying a computer and you're thinking of buying anything from a technical basis to upgrade, look now because the cost of that stuff is going to go higher. So I'm going to cover the cost side. I will go through Corning's announcement with Meta and just highlight to people that there's a lot of different places to get names out of that that you can invest in going forward. I will hopefully be able to highlight to people some of the things on the energy side. Energy is breaking out. I do think this story is in the early innings. I do think batteries are in the early innings, so I'm going to cover some of that. And then on the HRV,
Starting point is 00:36:07 I didn't send you this, but I did launch the HRV podcast. People have been very, very good to me. they've subscribed they've gone to the paywall the paywall for 22v is right there we're actually at the stage now where i've seen the stuff so it will be launched i'm in california i will be doing another one of the videos so the video stuff is going to be done but the hrv um sub stack is number five on the uh the bestseller new bestseller list so uh it's done very very well and the people that have subscribed that have reached out they're learning a lot but more importantly and i think this is the part for people who are watching now that didn't know this i'm going to say this again and again and again i'm i'm going to be on the west coast for a while i have to do
Starting point is 00:36:50 presentations to endowments and foundations i say to everyone the same thing whether you believe in ai whether now you're getting scared of ai because of how fast it's moving you're making a big mistake if you're not figuring out how to use it that's really where i focus my attention on the speeches i'm giving now i'm basically looking people in the eyes and going if not for you if not for your company, then you have to do it for your kids. And the reason is it is moving way too fast. That is going to be a focal point again on the video. I'm doing a lot more things with 22V on the consulting side. The demos I'm doing are helping people at this point. And I had a really interesting conversation with someone today on the HRV side because they didn't know how
Starting point is 00:37:32 important it was from an aging basis. But now watching the videos and going through it, they're really concerned that they also don't want to age because they believe the technology is getting here right now. And if you believe that the technology is here, you have to focus on your health right now. So hopefully I continue to get people subscribed there. At a minimum, I will just keep doing what I'm doing with you and keep doing what I'm doing there. And I'm going to give you a preview. I have gone deep in the rabbit hole of NFTs. So as someone who is only focused on stable coins. He is only focused on Bitcoin. He is only focused on tokenization. I have now seen the macro side connected to AI for NFTs. And this is not about art. This is something much deeper, much
Starting point is 00:38:14 more philosophical, and gets into the purpose of humans coming out of AI with no jobs. Trust me, I think you're going to like this. I'm going to post it on Substack probably Sunday night. I'm very, very happy with this one. I spent a lot of time with it. There's been a lot of influential of people that brought me there you left the real vision event earlier than i did i got a lot of good stuff uh on nfts before after you left i uh i'm excited to read it but i gotta go because i gotta go subscribe to the hrv thing i haven't subscribed yet so i'm gonna be your uh uh sounds like maybe your 10 000th subscriber but i'm gonna get on there as soon as we get off here i appreciate it bud all right sounds good we'll talk next week
Starting point is 00:38:54 Enjoy your time.

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