The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin’s $10K Candles Are Coming — Get Ready | Anthony & John Pompliano

Episode Date: October 14, 2025

Anthony & John Pompliano discuss what’s going on with bitcoin, stocks, market bubble talk, why the pessimists are wrong, what the future of predication markets look like, and why JPMorgan and Anduril are investing back into America. ======================Check out my NEW show for daily bite-sized breakdowns of the biggest stories in finance, technology, and politics: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://pompdesk.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠======================As markets shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true — opportunity is everywhere. At Arch Public, we help you do more than just buy and hold. Yes, our dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long-term investors… but where we really shine? Our arbitrage algos — designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of Arch Public’s products is they are free! Yes, you heard that right, try Arch Public for free! Take advantage of wild moves in assets like $SOL, $SUI, and $DOGE, and use them to stack more Bitcoin — completely hands-free. Arch Public is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and our team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit Arch Public today, at https://www.archpublic.com, your portfolio will thank you.======================Bitlayer is taking Bitcoin beyond just a store of value. For the first time, you can put your Bitcoin to work, earning yield while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Bitlayer is making Bitcoin DeFi a reality. Learn more at ⁠https://x.com/BitlayerLabs⁠======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro1:26 – Bitcoin crash and Trump’s economic plans6:29 – Is bitcoin a safe haven asset?12:47 – Is there really a market bubble?26:14 – Should the Fed continue to intervene in the market?30:22 – Prediction markets and recession odds40:19 – Why investors love buying stocks at all-time highs42:08 – JPMorgan and Anduril investing back in America

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them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going

on, guys. Today, we've got a great episode with John Pompliano. And I got to say, this one's packed with info, but we had a lot of fun with it. We talk about what's going on with Bitcoin stocks. Is there a bubble? Will there be a market crash? Why the pessimists are wrong? What Jamie Dimon's doing with $1.5 trillion invested in America? How Andro just came out with all this new AI technology that's supposed to make our warfighters more effective. And of course, we even talk about why the dolphins may need headphones in the ocean in order to allow America to continue to dominate on a global scale. Seriously, you'll love that part. here's my latest conversation with john pompliano all right john what's the first topic all right

so obviously we had a market crash in bitcoin or so they say it's a crash i didn't notice 15 000 on friday back on sunday what is going on why why the crash why are we going back up well abracadabra make the market go up on monday that's what president trump said uh again whether you like the guy or you don't what is very clear is that geopolitical negotiations are happening on social media you also are seeing the president of the united states who realizes he is a superpower. He can tank the market when he wants. He can revive it whenever he wants. It is like this amazing thing that the president of the United States wants to wield. Now, every president has had this superpower. It's just that most of them are like, I'm not going to tank the market

and revive it when I want. Trump, he's an entertainer. He's a TV star, right? He enjoys doing this, I think. And so that's what he is going to do. Now, how do you know that's what he's going to do? He waited till after four o'clock on Friday to announce 100% tariff on China. Is that a coincidence? I don't think so. Then he waited to about an hour and a half or so before futures opened on Sunday night. Was that a coincidence? I don't think so. So basically what he's doing is he's trying to manipulate the conversation and trying to use strength in order to negotiate. Now, it's very hard to do this without tanking the market and people basically being, this is not going to work. One of the reasons why I believe that it is

working is because the taco trade, Trump always chickens out. Now, whether you think he chickens out or not, I don't know, the hostages came back, didn't seem like he chickened out there. I think that the market now understands there is a lot of short-term volatility, but there is not a lot of long-term impact coming from these tariffs. And so you see that in the economic data, inflation did not come surging back. The shelves were not empty. We did not get a recession or a depression. All of the people who promised that stuff, shh, go sit in the corner, you were wrong. The second thing is that the tariffs, he comes out with a huge number and then it rolls back into something that I think is a lot more rational. People say,

okay, I could live with that 10%, et cetera. The thing here with China was we already went through that whole game. We went with the big number, then we brought it back down to reality and then bam, we come back with a hundred percent. Now it was retaliatory. So historically in 2025, the tariffs have been offensive. We have gone and said, oh, you like that global trade thing you got going on there? We're going to throw the tariff in first. We're taking the first shot. We're the one throwing the punch. In this case, we're the counter puncher because China came out and started to say, oh, you know what? All those exports of rare earths, we're not going to let you guys get access to those. Trump said, okay, yeah, you want to bet? Came out with this. So

long story short, a lot of noise. You can take the market. You can revive the market. Monday morning open, market goes back up, abracadabra, wave the magic wand. What I think is maybe most important though, are two things. The stock market, they don't care about the tariffs anymore, long-term. Investors have said to themselves, this is all short-term noise. Back in April, we did the whole fear thing. We had the amnesia, right? Now, you just see people investing right through it. And a big driver of that is retail saying, buy the dip. When it goes down, it's going to go back up later, buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip. This is the generation that understands reflexivity better than any generation that came before it. They realize the faster it

falls, the faster it comes back. So if you see it falling rapidly, buy, not sell, don't run out the door, buy. And then it comes back. They've been right. You can argue with whether that's a good investment strategy 20, 30 years ago. Today, it's an excellent strategy so far. The second thing is, if you look at the Bitcoin and crypto industry, is we saw $19 billion of liquidations, the greatest liquidation that the market has ever seen. Bitcoin went from $121,000 down to $108,000 in a single day. Sounds bad, right? It was back to $115,000, $116,000 within 48 hours. So that tells me two things. One, that wiped out all the excess leverage out of the market. What does that mean? You're clearing it out. We can go higher. That's good for business. The second thing is that

Bitcoin was the only market that was open. Crypto was the only market that was open. And so every single time that a geopolitical event or a macro event occurs during hours where the stock market is closed, there's a couple more people around the world who say, wait a second, why am I trading in a market where it is closed more hours a week than it is open? This market over here is open 24-7. That's interesting to me. So you're starting to see more and more people go into that world when things like tokenization,

et cetera, all happen. the markets are going to be 24-7. And the events like on Friday to Sunday are a huge reason that people are looking for 24-7 markets. It's because they want to trade their assets when things happen. And you can only do that right now in the crypto market. I think it's also the weight, right? You say at one time, it's a big move. Everyone's like, well, what's going on? We say three, four, five, six times, the weight of people's reaction gets diminished. But why is bitcoin moving so much and moving to the downside with geopolitical uncertainty right people see bitcoin as that safe haven asset so why is are people liquidating is it just hey i'm trying to

get cash this is one of the biggest um misconceptions about bitcoin is it is a safe haven asset people go to it but in moments of crisis like not oh we're in a three-month crisis right because that's when Bitcoin actually does pretty well. But in the reaction to news, Bitcoin is a very, very liquid market. And because Bitcoin is a very liquid market, people panic. News breaks sell. What do you sell? What's liquid? What's open? Bitcoin is the only thing available to sell. People go, well, gold should have gone down. Gold's not open either. A lot of people's exposure your two gold is actually through the ETFs. And so when you see that, that is a different thing than the Bitcoin market. And so the Bitcoin market is available, it's liquid, and you can

sell off fractions, like there's all these advantages to it. So that is why Bitcoin ultimately goes down. If you remember, go back to March of 2020, it was March 12. That was the big like sell off day. That was the liquidity crisis, right? Bitcoin went down 50% that day. Why? Because people are looking for an asset that is liquid. A big part of the sell-off was actually after hours in the stock market. The stock market had closed. Bitcoin had been falling. Stocks have been falling that day.

But Bitcoin kept going. There's no circuit breakers. Why do they have circuit breakers? They're manipulating the market. The circuit breaker is there in the stock market because there's too much volatility. There's too much selling. There's too much buying, right? They're trying to slow down the market.

Bitcoin doesn't have that stuff. This is a big boy market. That market is manipulated by hours of operations, it's manipulated by circuit breakers, it's manipulated in terms of how much algorithmic trading is going on there. Bitcoin is starting to get a lot more algorithmic trading, but it is still very much determined by spot buyers,

humans, et cetera. And so like, it is just a different, purer market. And therefore in moments of instant fear, post goes out on social media, immediately, ah, 100% tariff, sell. oh i can only sell so many things in my portfolio bitcoin gets sold off so i think that's a big driver now the other thing that i took away is if we can go from 121 to 108 i'm not a mathematician 13 14 15 000 depending on exactly where you measure it from right on the downside well

bitcoin now we grown-ups that means we can get 10 10k candles in a day on the way up too and so what you're going to start to see here is the percentage moves are still going to be quite small, but you're going to start to see the aggregate dollar amount equivalent of these percentage moves is going to get bigger and bigger. There will be a day where Bitcoin moves 15 to $20,000 a day, both directions, but it's going to be 1% move, right? So when you think about it from that perspective, now it becomes kind of interesting. You're like, wait a second, the world has been trained from a Bitcoin US dollar price standpoint. Percentage wise, you don't hear a lot of people talking about it.

If you watch the news, if you listen to people on podcasts or see them writing on social media, they talk about it as Bitcoin went up $2,000, Bitcoin went down $2,000, Bitcoin hit this price milestone. They don't talk about it as Bitcoin was up 1.5% today. I don't know why that is.

Like it's very different in the stock market. People will talk about percentages much more, but the vernacular, the culture, the way that people think about Bitcoin is much more in the dollar movement than it is the percentage movement. And so that is shocking when you're like, oh my God, it dropped $15,000. It's a big move, but historically that's not that big of a move, right? And so I think people just have to get

used to now the aggregate dollars of these moves are going to get bigger and bigger. Yeah. Bitcoin's clearly a mature asset now, right? So I actually would push back a little bit. I don't know if it's mature yet. What I would say is at first we were like a young kid, we were infant, then we became kind of a toddler, right? Then we became kind of a, I don't know, like a preteen. I think now we're in our teenage years. So Bitcoin is not a man or a woman yet, right? But it's like an adolescent.

It's getting there. It's getting closer. But I think that there is a threshold, probably $10 trillion is the number in my mind. Once you cross over $10 trillion, now you're a grown man or a grown woman in the financial market as an asset, right? Now you have real size and maturity and a very different type of thing. And where you can see this is, how many people want to bet on a teenager, right, in the regular world?

Some people, right, I'll give this person a job, give them an internship, maybe, you know, give them a little bit of an investment. Bad number's pretty small. It's not really until they're out of college, then you're like, okay, I'm ready to make a real bet on this person. I'll give them a real job. I'll give them, you know, a real investment. Let's go, you know, work together, et cetera.

Bitcoin is in that adolescent age where there's some people willing to make some bets on it. But central banks, they're not willing to bet on it yet. Most financial institutions don't hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet yet. Most public companies don't hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet yet. And so it is more mature than it was, but we're not an adult yet. We still got some ways to go. Today's episode is brought to you by ArchPublic. As markets shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true.

Opportunity is everywhere. At ArchPublic, they help you do more than just buy and hold. Yes, their dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long-term investors. But where they really shine? They're arbitrage algos designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of ArchPublic's products is they're free. Yeah, you heard that right. Try ArchPublic for free.

Take advantage of wild moves and assets like Solana, Sui, and Doge, and use them to stack more Bitcoin completely hands-free. ArchPublic is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and their team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit ArchPublic today at archpublic.com and your portfolio will thank you. All right, second inning for Bitcoin. Is that the ending we're calling it?

Yeah, you know, all the baseball experts can choose which inning, but we're closer to the beginning of the game than the end for sure. Awesome. All right, you hang out with Jordy Visser every single week. Jordy brings the fire.

He's one of the most optimistic people I know. He was talking about a little bit of market correction last week. What's going on? Are we getting worried? Should investors be worried? No. I mean, first of all, what a presciente.

I mean, the guy nailed it within hours. Like, you know, kudos to him. I think that there are maybe three things happening in the market right now. There's a lot of people yelling bubble. You know how I know there's not a bubble? Because so many people are yelling bubble. You can't have a bubble if everyone's yelling bubble, right? Like, that's not how it works.

The whole point of a bubble is that it basically becomes so frothy that people expect it to continue to go up. You know when it's going to be a bubble? when all the people yelling bubble capitulate and say, fine, it's not a bubble. That's when the bubble is, right? So same thing with market corrections. How many people are running around being like, market correction, market correction, it's coming, it's coming, the big crash, it's overvalued, blah, blah, whatever. Howard Marks, everyone really respects him, right? Oak Tree guy writes all the memos, value investors called multiple market corrections, et cetera. He was on CNBC yesterday. Guess what he said? He said, I don't think this is a bubble. I don't think

that we're overvalued. I don't think a market crash is coming. I think that it's a little expensive, but I'm not worried. Wait a minute. Hold on. The guy who's supposed to be pessimist all the time, he's actually bullish. Well, what data is he looking at? He tends to be right a lot, right? If you go and you take a look at Jamie Dimon, we're in a bull market, right? You go and you listen to all these people. They're all saying the same thing. We're in a bull market. We're in a bull market. We're in a bull market. And so there's some research recently that came out opening Bell Daily, Phil Rosen, shout out to him. If you look at, I think he got some of the data from Ryan Dietrich. So it's a dual shout out. The bull market right now, we're three years in.

The average bull market, if my understanding is correct, is something like seven or eight years, if I remember correctly. So we got a ways to go. Everyone calm down. I think that what people are not understanding, the companies are more valuable today than they used to be. What company in history was a trillion dollars growing 30% year over year. That never happened. It wasn't possible before. So what you're seeing is, of course, the valuation multiples are higher because the company is more valuable. They're getting more of their future profit faster than they used to do. So of course, they're going to get a better multiple. So I think that it just comes down to, I would be very worried if stocks were being valued on promise and not results.

But that's not what I see. I see actually very impressive results from a lot of these companies. And then the guidance. The guidance is really important. What I hear, Palantir is a great example. Palantir says, we're going to continue growing at this rate or faster, and we're going to do it with less employees. When in history have you ever heard a CEO talk about, oh, by the way, we're growing

at this really impressive rate. Our stock's up like 900% in like two years or three years. And oh, by the way, we're going to keep this rate or grow faster, and we're going to do it with less employees. Never. Usually, they're like, we plan to hire 4,000 more employees. It was like a badge of honor. We're going to grow to 47,000 employees.

That's not what they're saying now. The competition now is how much revenue can you drive per employee? That's kind of interesting. Efficiency, more productivity out of your employees. That is the world that we're headed towards. That means the companies are becoming more valuable. That means they deserve a higher valuation multiple. Now, I know people will be like, oh, yeah, there's going to be a market crash,

blah, blah, blah, whatever. my bet to people out there we have outlawed 18 months or longer bear markets you think right now let's just let's just say that uh all the uh the optimists are wrong the market crash starts tomorrow and we go down and we go down for let's say 20 in the stock market what do you think the Fed's going to do? Cut rates. The Fed is going to go into their closet, into their shed in the backyard. They're going to get out a monetary bazooka that they're going to put on their shoulder, and they're going to fire a stimulus bill into the economy, and they are going to blow a hole into the recessionary conditions, and they are going to send us flying back in

the other direction. Why? Because that's their playbook now. That is what they have learned. They are not going to allow us to be in an 18-month plus bear market. Oh, 2022. Remember 2022? How long was that? That was like nine months, 10 months. We didn't get to 18 months, right? We hit the bottom. I think it was like November, December of 22. Oh, wait, what is that? Three-year bull market kicked off then. Remember, in November of 21, that was the top of the market. They said, we're going to start raising rates. It was a self induced market correction. That wasn't condition wise. The Fed induced the market to crash by raising rates at the fastest rate in history. Great. Even if the Fed did something they had

never done before in history, they could not push us into a asset bear market for more than 12 months. But we never actually got the official recession. Now, there is a little bit of we did have two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. That's a recession in my book. But it's two quarters. We didn't even get a third quarter. So all the people who are predicting all this chaos, we locked people in their homes in America. We shut down thousands of businesses. We literally said, in some cities in America, you cannot leave your home and go to a restaurant or go into a building unless you get an unconstitutional card that says that you got a shot in your arm. The velocity of money went to zero. Stocks hit an all-time high by the end of the year.

What are you people talking about? So again, by the way, I don't think this is healthy. I don't think that this is a good thing because what are we doing? We're manipulating the money supply we are manipulating the economy we are stimulating it by printing money by artificially suppressing interest rates by doing all these artificial interventions in the market so it's easy to see why it happens i'm not saying it's a good thing but i'm saying it's happening and so again it goes back to all of this like market crash market crash market like every time i hear someone screaming about a big market crash that we're headed to some big recession bro you're a dinosaur like you're living in a world that does not exist today because they are they would rather

destroy 50% of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar than have us sit in a recession for 18 months. How do I know? Because they destroyed 30% of their purchasing power after a pandemic where they locked everyone in their home. They did it in five years. 30% of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, according to Truflation, gone.

So wait a second. If that's the case, retail are geniuses. Stocks go down, I buy. Why? Because they're cheaper than they were yesterday. Fundamentals didn't change and it's going to be back. That is the investing philosophy. And I think that what you are seeing now

is you're slowly starting to see more and more people in the market realize, wait a second, they are not going to let asset prices fall forever. They are going to stimulate the economy. They have a playbook. And it may not be a good long-term one. We are trading off short-term benefit for long-term pain.

100%, that's what they're doing. I'm not advocating for them to do it. I'm just telling you what they're going to do. And so if you understand that, relax, relax. What do you think is going to happen to stocks? You think the NASDAQ is over? You think the companies are worthless? Do you really think that in two years it's not going to be higher than it is right now?

If today is the top of the market, two years from now, do you think the NASDAQ is going to be higher or not? And people say, well, in 2000 in the dot-com bubble, if you go and you look, it was dead money for 10 years. Okay, great. Guess what happened in 2008? These dudes, they went into their bag and they invented a new game that meant that stock prices always go up. But it took years for 2008 to recover to the same levels, right? When we hit the bottom in 2008, the world changed because the government violated a promise with the American people that they said that they would never, ever, ever do, which was we invented the

QE playbook and now that became the default. That violation of the relationship with the American people meant that they were going to punish the bottom half of the socioeconomic ladder at the expense of the asset owners. Asset prices are important. Fed, oh, we don't care about stock market. Oh, we don't look at asset. Shut up. Of course they look. Of course. Right? And so that is ultimately what is happening here is the world changed. And it's why you see certain cohorts of investors making out like bandits. And then you actually see another cohort of investors who are really suffering, right? They're actually not outperforming. They're not driving the returns that they otherwise would be. They're still making money

because stocks are going up, but they're not going up nearly at the rate that certain sectors or certain types of businesses are going up. So look at like the value investing crowd, right? Value investing is a timeless investing principle, right? So everyone who's like value investing is dead, blah, blah, whatever. Hold on a second. Buying something for less than it's worth, pretty good strategy, right? That's true if you're on Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, were in the stock market. Buying something for less than it's worth, not a bad strategy. In the stock market, historically what that meant is they stayed away from technology and they went and they focused on things in manufacturing, industrial businesses,

those types of companies. And so it wasn't just about buying something for less than it's worth, it was buying something for less than it's worth in a specific type of sector. Now, some of the best investors in the world, I would argue Julian Robertson, Bill Miller, et cetera, they were some of the first value investors to actually start to invest with that mindset in the tech sector. So Bill Miller's famous. He started buying Amazon and was like, oh, you're not a value investor. You've just lost your mind. You're a speculator. You're gambling. You're a tech investor, whatever. And he's like, wait a minute. I think that Amazon is worth X. It's trading at X minus 20% on buying something for less than it's worth. That's value

investing. But because it was in tech, everyone was yelling and screaming and saying that's not value investing. So is value investing about a certain sector is value investing about a certain way of evaluating a company and buying it for what less than it's worth? Right? I would argue it's the latter. It's all about buying something for less than it's worth. So those investors who have stayed outside of the technology industry, they've suffered, right? Now, on top of that, I think the other thing to pay attention to here is take something like Bitcoin. Bitcoin, in my mind, has been somewhat of an intelligence test. Because as Bitcoin has gained value, the people who have critiqued it most usually fall into three buckets. Technology is not real. Government's going to ban

it and all of like the normal critiques. The second thing is I understand Bitcoin. I don't think that it's actually productive in my portfolio because I don't want something that's asymmetric that is so volatile, et cetera. And then you have a third group of people who frankly look at Bitcoin. And I like to say that they take the approach that Bitcoin is an asset that a serious investor doesn't include. They have some premonition as to why they want to invest. All three of those people are wrong, obviously. Best investors in the world, best portfolios in the world, Bitcoin is a piece of it. There is an overwhelming amount of evidence. If you put Bitcoin into your portfolio, your Sharpe ratio goes up, your correlation goes down, and you

actually get diversification with asymmetry. It's like the perfect asset. If you're a believer in modern portfolio theory, adding Bitcoin to a portfolio makes it, quote unquote, better based on a number of different metrics that are well accepted in that world. What I think is there's a lot of people who had to start to think through Bitcoin and say, wait a minute, am I looking at a traditional asset that can be evaluated via the principles I believe in? Or do I just say I hear Bitcoin and I think gambling? That was the separation of these groups. And as we see, the smart crowd, the prudent crowd, the rational crowd, the people who evaluated it based on the merit, they've been right. And so I think that the group that was just like, oh, it's gambling,

they're the same people who were like uh apple no apple is overvalued like are you joking apple has a monopoly on an entire generation of people who literally if you put an android in front of their face they'll their brains will blow they make fun of you for having an android sometimes imagine a piece of technology where when you text your friend if you got a green bubble an entire generation of people laugh like bro what is going on here right to the point where the apple guys literally made the bubble green they didn't have to do that they could have made it blue they could have hid that? No, they made it green. It's all part of the thing, right? So again, it just goes back to this idea of everyone calm down. The market, are there going to be

corrections? Obviously. If you're under the age of 60, which is most people in America, if you're under the age of 60, you're going to be fine. If you buy things and you're worried about what the price is going to be tomorrow, you're probably buying the wrong things. If you buy things and you say, you know what? Stocks are going to continue to go up because are going to continue manipulating the denominator, you're going to be fine. Relax. Who cares what people on TV interviews are saying? Who cares about what the headlines are? Who cares what your favorite person on X is saying? Stocks are going to continue headed up and to the right because they will not let us sit in a recession for too long.

All right. There's a lot to unpack there. That was awesome. Should the Fed continue to manipulate regulate the market in the manner in which it does? Yes and no. Both are true. Because if you're optimizing for long-term sustainability of the US dollar and the US economy and, frankly, our country, no, they should not. They should allow the free market to work. They should allow for the cleansing of, I don't know, 10%, 20%, 30% of companies that shouldn't exist, creative destruction, just wipe all that stuff out, the money, the people, the resources, et cetera, to be reallocated to the better companies. Kind of your classic free market economics. They should 100% let that do because the market is a better referee than anybody

sitting on the FOMC. On the other hand, if you're optimizing for short-term stability, if you're optimizing for short-term human control, like the feeling of control, then yeah, intervene, do your thing. But all they're doing is they're creating more medium and long-term volatility and destruction. So it's like pick your poison, right? Do you want the short-term pain for long-term gain, or do you want a short-term benefit for long-term pain? I personally, because I tend to be a little bit younger, although I did recently realize, you know, I'm 37 now. I don't know if I can say I'm young for much longer. It's all relative at this point. But I think that if you're optimizing for the long-term, then the Fed should be much

less of an interventionist, and they should allow the free market to work. But that's not the world we live in. So like, regardless of my personal feelings, my emotions, my theories as to what they should be doing, I got to put all that aside. I'm just an observer of the market. What I know is, I told you, the Fed's got a shed. The Fed has a shed in the back. And when they need to, they go into the shed, they break the glass, break in case of emergency, they pull out that monetary bazooka. And, you know, Jerome Powell gets down on his knees, got like an AT4, you know, you don't know what that is. AT4, you know, he's the ones they put on their, their shoulder. And he puts a site in and he fires a monetary bazooka and he just puts it right into the market. And he

said, don't worry, I got you. I'm sending us back. So like, okay, if they're going to do that, then everyone chill out, by the way, should they do it? No. Are they going to do it? Yes. Like that, that's just the reality. Let it, let it just let the ball lie, let the ball lie. And that means stocks are going to keep going up. Today's episode is brought to you by Simple Mining. Have you ever been interested in mining Bitcoin? As a miner myself, I've been using Simple mining for the past few months, and the experience has been nothing short of seamless. I mine with the pool of my choice and the Bitcoin is sent directly to my wallet. Simple Mining, which is based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, offers a premium white glove service designed for everyone from

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DeFi a reality. Learn more at x.com slash BitLayer Labs. Again, that's x.com slash BitLayer Labs. Okay. Let's talk about prediction markets a little bit. Obviously, PolyMarket, Kalashi, all these other prediction markets have become extremely popular. There's a 90% chance of Fed rate cuts in November and December. And then there's also an 8% chance of a recession coming up. How do you weight this stuff? Is that just another market that people are gambling on? And then should the numbers be higher for a recession and lower for rate cuts? Well, I think that there are certain markets that I put a lot of weight on, on these prediction markets and some that I don't. So for example, I don't know if you see

the nobel uh prize winner of what happened there there's like um five people in the world or seven people in the world whatever the number something like 10 or less people in the world that knew who who had been selected because that hadn't been publicly announced and a couple hours before it got announced the eventual winner skyrocketed to like 90 percent. You think somebody who knew told somebody or went on the prediction market and bought, obviously. So in a weird way, now these markets are also going global. Another thing that's really important is if you think about in the stock market, you have New York Stock Exchange, you've got NASDAQ, you've got an exchange in London, you've got all around the world, all that stuff.

You have pooled liquidity based on these geographic kind of limitations. Now, technically, you can have an investor from elsewhere in the world putting money into it but even just new york exchange and nasdaq are two different markets right so what these uh prediction markets are doing is they're trying to create one single global liquidity pool which means that anyone from anywhere in the world can go and can bet on this because it's a digital world right so like the information is digital because that's what you're betting on and so what i think is pretty interesting here is when i see that that price skyrockets like that what it tells me is the market incentive is working there's an economic incentive for you to share the information you

have with the world right you have a unique piece of information how can people incentivize you to give it to them before it's public pay you pay you prediction market right now if you go back and remember uh in the 2024 election the reason why the french whale bet so much money on trump winning versus Harris was because he actually commissioned, I think it's called a neighbor study. So the polls ask you, who are you going to vote for? The neighbor study is they ask you, who is your neighbor going to vote for? People lie about themselves, but they tell the truth about their neighbor. And so he had this thing commissioned. He got the data. He had data that nobody else had. So he had a high degree of confidence. So he made a big bet. When he made

the big bet, he ended up being right. So again, he had a piece of information. The prediction market uh uh incentivized him to put it out into the world right um and so i think that's what you're seeing happen here now fed rate cut would it be controversial if a fed governor knew that the rate cut was coming in an hour before went on to the prediction market i think people would be like that's unethical that that's uh you're benefiting from information you have about whatever would it be illegal i don't i don't think so now again unethical doesn't mean that oh who cares what the law like whatever you mean like it's still i don't think people would be very happy i would would be hey that's now we're entering bad territory we should talk about this um but like

that's the type of information that becomes interesting what if it's not a fed governor whether it's one of their staffers what if it's their neighbor what if it's the janitor who just overhears the conversation right you you see how like all of a sudden this becomes uh kind of a global uh loosely coordinated uh work to try to get information so that's why these things are so valuable. So when I look at 8% odds of recession, I actually put much less weight on something like that, because it's unclear to me how somebody would be able to get some unique piece of information that could ultimately predict that, right? Unless you just knew the GDP numbers, right? If you knew the GDP numbers, okay, great. But even the people inside of the

organization that reports the GDP number, they don't know now what the number for Q3 is going to be right so maybe a day or two before i might put a little bit more weight on it because it's like oh wait a second somebody may have the information right now and if all of a sudden you see a spike it's odds are that actually the gdp print's going to be negative right now we've actually seen it as the opposite we went from 65 66 percent in like i don't know april or may uh recession odds on these prediction markets down to six or eight you know whatever it is today so that's a huge crash in the odds so what that tells me is the direction of travel is there is less odds today than there's ever been this year uh in terms of the odds here and so i don't put

a lot of weight on uh the difference between six and eight i don't put a lot of weight on um the recession thing in between the gdp prints but when we get close is depending on how much money they can make there's people who are incentivized hey if you know what the gdp number is go hit the prediction market uh i think you're gonna start to see more and more of that and maybe maybe the fed's got enough controls and stuff right where like they're they're kind of doing things so that number doesn't get out in the hands of you know outside of a very small group but you know like another here's a good a good example um one of the things i'm really excited about is in finance you can start to isolate these data points so rather than

buy tesla stock right before the earnings because you think they're going to beat on the delivery number. You can instead just go on the prediction market and say, I think they're going to beat the delivery number or not. You've isolated that data point. So who cares if the stock goes up or down because of the earnings, what you care about is I want to just bet on this one thing. Well, who has access to that number? Obviously people inside the company. I think that it probably would be considered insider trading. You're using material, non-public information to make money, whatever. But what if you, um, what if you work at a, uh, somewhere in the supply chain and you just know that uh tesla seems to have ordered a certain number of i don't know

windshields and they've been doing that every single quarter and you start to see a correlation between how many they order and what the number is like the actual delivery print is and then all of a sudden you see a huge spike uh one quarter is that insider trading i don't know i'm not a right do you actually have material non-public information like do they have trading rules on their suppliers employees again i'm not a lawyer i don't know but like this is the things the world is gonna have to try to figure out is how do we handle that stuff but what i know is from an investor seat is investors are going to start to put more and more weight on these prediction markets because it's basically an information incentive to get people to contribute to,

are they going to beat this number or not? And if you start to see movements in it, then that means somebody knows something. Somebody one time told me if the price is moving, there's news. It's just whether you know it or not. True of prediction markets, true of the stock market. So what's the news? Well, you're going to find out at some point. What's fascinating is everyone always says, whatever you're thinking about is already priced in, right? And I think with prediction markets, it actually gets farther out on that curve. And it's not necessarily priced in because you may have some information or you may be able to see something that the rest of the market isn't seeing because it's actually still quite

a small market right now, right? It's not as big as a stock market. One idea that I tweeted this, I don't mind repeating it. I think that Opendoor, shout out to the Open Army. I think that Opendoor should add prediction markets on the home listings. And my thought process is basically the following. When a home gets listed, a seller is essentially putting a bid into the market, right? They're saying, hey, I want to sell it for this. They have to wait for market feedback. Sometimes that market feedback can take six months, right? Some people come and they visit, they don't like it, they get some feedback. Oh, I priced it too high, I should drop the price. Well, there's a bunch of people that are around

their home, whether it's in their neighborhood, their city, maybe their county, maybe they're in the state, right? Maybe there's somebody in the home industry that has a really good understanding of data, whatever. They have a view that home is overpriced, that home is underpriced. So if you put a prediction market in place, now all of a sudden people can start to wager on, if you list your home for $300,000 and all of a sudden people are saying the odds that this home sells for under 270 is 90%, like that is a market data point. Open door could use that data point to get better at their iBuying, right? But also the seller of the home gets a data point now that says, hey, the market is telling me my home is priced too high. You may not like it. It

may make you feel emotional and uncomfortable, but it's a data point. The third thing is that the people in that community, they have unique information. They have an expertise. They know their local market. They should be able to monetize that information because they're helping other people better understand a fact about the world, right? But also there's these ancillary benefits. If there's prediction markets all of a sudden, that's marketing. Local news starts talking about did you see this home's listed for 22 million dollars rich you know uh most expensive home in the entire state but the prediction market saying is worth 14 you don't think that'll drive some news right or maybe it's the opposite this home is priced at an auction right and we actually

think it's going to go for 16 million like it's news it's content it provides marketing and things like that and so i just think that um that's probably not the first priority open door should go they should you know build their team go you know do what they're doing like the very smart that I'm excited to be a shareholder in their company. But I do think that that's the type of stuff people need to start thinking about. It's like, how do you take this mechanism and insert it into products?

I think that there's some very unique things that can start happening there that are both information, but also can be content marketing in a way that we just haven't seen in products yet. I love that. Okay, let's switch gears for a minute. QCAP on X posted an awesome chart

about how buying stocks over the last 50 years at an all-time high was actually one of the best things investors could have done. What do they mean by that? You're asking me genuinely. I know because you're like, yo, what the hell does that make any sense, right? Well, if something's at $100 and it goes to 98, isn't it buying at 98 better than buying it at 100 if it continues to rise? Yeah. But the odds that it goes from 100 to 98 when it's going up is probably lower than it going from 100 to 102. So the whole idea is just momentum, right? When something has momentum, you want to be investing in because it's energy, it's momentum, et cetera. Now, people always say, oh, well, if I bought it at 100 and I could have bought it at 80, then

it's closer to the top or whatever. Sure, whatever. But the momentum is things in motion tend to stay in motion. So buying at an all-time high is usually a sign that you're going higher, right? Yes, of course, you want to buy at the lowest price possible. But this whole idea of things in motion staying in motion, if you look over, I think it's like a year, three years, five years, in 10 years is when you buy at an all-time high that day, your return is better than if you bought any other day of the year. And then that's why you see, like, I don't know how many all-time highs we've had this year, but it's like, I don't know, 17, 18, 20, 50, whatever. I mean, crazy number, right? Like I think in October, like the first four trading days of the month

were all all-time highs, right? So it's like things in motion stay in motion. And so that momentum is ultimately what people are looking for. And these things, they move more aggressively than people anticipate and they're longer than people anticipate. And that's really the thought process. So there's a bunch of math that you can go and look at, et cetera. But very basic is, again, I'm not suggesting you go buy at an all-time high. I don't know where the price is going. Could go up, could go down, could go sideways. The stock market could get shut off, literally. Who knows what will happen? But historically, buying at an all-time high was a very good indicator that you're on your way higher. Okay. Let's talk about something I know

you're passionate about. JP Morgan is investing in America. That's what they're doing. $1.5 trillion dollars defense manufacturing etc um i saw andrew released the eagle eye as well what are your thoughts around like all this stuff going on with both technology and then also these companies just investing back in america i i think that we should uh lobby the webster's dictionary to do uh you know how you can do like control f in a document and you say like find this word and replace it with this word i think throughout the i don't think that's control f but yeah no you find the role f is fine though yeah you find and then i think it's like a replace button whatever and uh well people gonna be in the comments like it's control f yeah um but if

if you think about uh we should control f find and replace the word entrepreneur all throughout society right and we should replace it with problem solver that's ultimately what we're watching happen now so there's a bunch of people who are raising their hand and saying there's a problem i'll solve it there's a problem i'll solve it andrew said oh we have war fighters on the ground they're at a disadvantage there's all this great technology what if we take artificial intelligence computer vision and machine learning we put it in their helmet then we give them these cool sci-fi looking glasses so that they have a digital display so that they can literally see through buildings they can see at night in ways they previously couldn't what if they could turn

on heat sensors what if they could flip back and forth between all these different optics that sounds awesome we're making our warfighters more lethal and more effective which is good for america because strength comes through uh peace comes through strength and it's a great deterrence and so putting technology near on or within reach of our warfighters has historically been very good and so i think that that is just the natural progression guess what's going to happen eventually i don't know if it takes 20 years or 100 years they're going to say why don't we just put this shit right in their body that's where we're going right but now we went from oh i have to take the night vision goggles and attach them or i have to take this and i have to film or i

have to put the optics on you know these striker vehicles and stuff so now we're like why don't we just put it on their helmet so it's always with them okay that's pretty good right i think that's where we're headed that's gonna be a big deal in terms of jp morgan uh 1.5 trillion dollars over 10 years hey let's ride right my favorite part is jamie diamond's quote he said this is not philanthropy this commercial dude's trying to make money it's good for business it's good for america it's good for investors it's good for citizens right is we need to become a leader in ai energy aerospace defense manufacturing supply chains uh artificial intelligence machine learning like all this stuff let's ride if there is a problem and you take money and you take a good

problem solver and you put those two things together and attack the problem the odds are that they'll solve the problem which will create economic value that economic value can be captured by the problem solver and the investor. It's very simple. And that's what JP Morgan's saying is they're saying there's a lot of problems here. Let's go put a lot of money at a lot of problems. And my guess is they ain't going to do a lot of missing.

They're going to make a lot of money doing it. So yeah, it's great. It's patriotic. Put the flag up. Everyone cheer. Dude, this is ruthless business. Have you ever seen someone invest $1.5 trillion for fun? No.

They did calculations. They looked at the problems. They understood the upside. They understood the value capture that's possible. He said, this is good for our bank. This is good for our financial institution. This is good for our shareholders, and we're going to go do it. And I think that, again, it's kind of like a prediction market.

They just laid a bid in the market. They just laid out a bet. They were going to bet $1.5 trillion so you can create value by solving these problems. You could fade that. I'm not. I'm not. You know what I think the government and companies should do? Is put a bounty out on if they have a problem, right?

Government has a problem that they want to solve. They can't solve themselves. is cool. We'll pay $1 billion to the first person to bring us the solution to this problem. Do you know Peter Diamandis? He does XPRIZE. That's basically what they do is they'll come up with a competition. Some of them have been at $10 million. I think there's been a couple like $100 million XPRIZES. And they'll basically say the team who best solves this problem gets the prize. And there's global teams all around the world. Sometimes 20, 30, 50, 100 teams, whatever the number is, trying to solve the problem. And whoever gets it, they get $100

million or $10 million. It makes a ton of sense. I don't think you need to do a billion. I think you can do it with a lot less. And so, yeah, I love that idea. It's just create pure competition to get people to solve problems, of course. And you probably could do it cheaper and faster. For example, what if the government said to the private sector, whoever can build back the Baltimore Bridge the fastest and cheapest, you get the contract? Have we started building it? Oh, that's right. We're never going to build it back. Don't worry. I don't know. I got 90% confidence they ain't going to build the bridge.

I don't know. You don't think so? No, dude. They're going to do studies on whether the dolphins' ears get hurt because of the sound of a jackhammer at the bottom of the ocean floor. What are you talking about? They won't let Musk sometimes launch rockets on land because of the concussive sound impact on the dolphins

or seals or whatever it is. Think how crazy that is. We're trying to go to Mars and we're worried about the animals in the oceans the sound vibrations by the way i don't know maybe it's a big problem but what i do know is we gotta start making some trade-off decisions here right i like dolphins i like seals i like animals i'm not i'm chill with all animal kingdom but like i think it's pretty important to launch the rocket right so i don't know like scoot them out like put a little red rope you know out in the ocean or something say nobody come in this area right give them some

headphones or something i don't know but like let's launch the rocket so i think that that's what you're going to see is like you telling me that the environmentalists aren't just waiting there on shore their binoculars like who's coming near the bridge we're definitely going to get these guys uh oh you want to build a tunnel uh no you can't do that oh uh the the they got a little ph levels in the water right like little nerds out on their boats uh well you got guys sweating their ass off trying to build the bridge so people can get to work come on stop it so i don't think the bridge is getting rebuilt now by the way i would love to be wrong this is like one of those things i say a lot of confidence in it if i'm wrong i'll take a victory lap for being

wrong because that means that people in america are winning but i don't think they're going to rebuild the bridge it's been how many years has it been since the bridge fell they have not built one foot of the bridge back yet i don't actually even know i don't know maybe matt you could look this up real quick i don't even know if they have taken all of the debris out of the water yet so just think about that for a second right if that's true if they have not gotten all of the debris out of the water what are we doing years that that's the problem is by the way china uh bridge jeff park talked about it they built a bridge that's like the uh so far in the air it's like the empire state building height a suspension bridge by the way i wouldn't walk on it would you

no i think what a lot of what they do in china is they build in segments right and they build it off-site and then they assemble it there i don't know how they built the bridge but that's a lot of how they do construction i don't care how they build how they build it so quickly i don't care if they do magic if they do engineering if it works it works but they built a suspension bridge which by the way in america we wouldn't even be allowed to dream about let alone attempt because they would say oh it's not safe the number one thing is the bullet trains you just go through all this infrastructure all this nonsense honestly this is probably what would happen oh we want to build a suspension bridge in the mountains or whatever and somebody

They'd say, oh, you can't do that because you're going to have to bring the trucks down the road and the road might crack, which then might endanger the species of plants that are next to the road. You know how I know that? Remember the infrastructure bill or the Inflation Reduction Act or whatever, when they did a huge study because they wanted to build highways and they had to study what the impact would be on endangered, nearly extinct, exotic plants? Millions of dollars to study that. Come on, stop it. Let's just build. just build, build. By the way, I like plants. I'm cool with the plants too. Right. But you know, it's just like, Hey, move somewhere else. Like, you know, gardeners do it all the time. They pick

up the plant, they move it somewhere else. Like just move the plant. We got to push and put a highway here, man. All right. That's it for today. Thank you guys so much for watching John. Thanks for doing it. A little bit of fun, a little bit of, uh, hopefully insights and we'll see you guys next week.