The Pomp Podcast - Bitcoin’s Future Will Be Decided by This One Shift | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: February 7, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we break down why bitcoin is selling off, why software multiples are compressing, and how capital is shifting toward scarce, physical assets. We cover data centers, AI, energy, and semiconductors — plus insights on Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and what it all means for markets.=====================Figure (https://democratizedprime.pxf.io/c/6754631/3755092/37696) – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure https://democratizedprime.pxf.io/c/6754631/3755092/37696 ! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.=====================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp. Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp=====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=====================As markets shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true — opportunity is everywhere. At Arch Public, we help you do more than just buy and hold. Yes, our dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long-term investors… but where we really shine? Our arbitrage algos — designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of Arch Public’s products is they are free! Yes, you heard that right, try Arch Public for free! Take advantage of wild moves in assets like $SOL, $SUI, and $DOGE, and use them to stack more Bitcoin — completely hands-free. Arch Public is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and our team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit Arch Public today, at https://www.archpublic.com, your portfolio will thank you.=====================0:00 – Intro0:50 – Why is bitcoin crashing?3:01 – The big crypto utility shift & why software multiples are collapsing10:55 – The rotation: hardware/commodities outperforming software17:14 – How AI agents disrupt legacy enterprise software33:51 – Jordi’s “turbulence model” + what it’s signaling in markets40:34 – Tesla/Elon: bull case, risks, & the path to $10T50:25 – Should Elon merge Tesla + SpaceX + xAI + X?53:22 – Wrap + what Jordi is publishing next

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What's going on, guys? Today's conversation with Jordy Visser is going to blow your mind. He talks about why Bitcoin is crashing, why software companies may be zeros and how all the multiples are coming down, why that's happening, what it means your portfolio. and then we even get into all the data centers, the hardware, PMIs. We talk also about what's going on with all the AI agents and then we have a little bit of fun and we talk about Elon, Tesla, SpaceX, XAI and much, much more.

Jordy is here. He's got data. He's got insights. He's got, you know, real views on the real world and how it's going to impact you. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, Bitcoin is crashing. Everyone is crying.

They need to hear from you. What is going on and should we be worried? I'm losing money with everyone else. stuff. What do you think is driving the crash? Okay. So we're almost at our one year anniversary and none of my views have changed in terms of the bigger picture. So, you know, I hate saying this because I started buying more around as it got close to a hundred, then under a hundred, then I made the statement that once we closed three days above 92,000, I want to buy more. I did. And then once it went back below $92,000, I went, all right, let's just be patient because there's

something else going on here. The thing that's going on, and I just want to live in the world of facts right now, you cannot separate Bitcoin from the traditional finance world. You just can't. And if you were to ask me what needs to happen for Bitcoin to get to a million, I will say the same thing I've said repeatedly. When an investor sitting at home or a pension fund or a sovereign wealth fund or an endowment or a foundation can invest in the seven most liquid companies in the world, the biggest companies in the world, and get a similar or better return than Bitcoin, you don't need to invest too much money in Bitcoin. Is that because Bitcoin is serving in the US market and for sophisticated investors

as a speculation tool and it's all about like max alpha or max return? Or is there something else as to why they're looking at Bitcoin versus, you know, MaxEvan or other, you know, kind of asymmetric type assets? Well, let's go through this. I think the hardest part for people to accept, and I know there's, you know, it's a polar, Bitcoin's very polarizing. There is no fundamental narrative that you can go on. Now, when people ask me, I go, yeah, I think Bitcoin's, or the market cap of crypto will

eventually be the monetary base of the world, which is about $120 trillion. The assets are $800 trillion. So you could focus on a percentage of the financial assets, but I think those assets are going to delever. So I really did think what had to happen is there had to be no growth. So let's replace speculative and just say growth. Because what I do believe is happening this year is the most important year for crypto ever from a utility basis.

Stable coins. Nobody's talking about the fact. I don't know if you saw the volumes for January. $10 trillion. Last year, they were $33 trillion. The network effects are kicking in. And the reason is because of OpenClaw and Multibook. AI agents are real and they're happening now.

And that's the most critical part for me for the network effects. So stable coins are already happening. With that, you're going to have more volumes. You're going to have people focusing again on, hey, how do I make money off that? Oh, I'll go to Ethereum. Right now, everyone's panicked and I get it. It makes sense to me that everyone would be panicked. But tokenization is coming at the end of the year.

The Clarity Act is now over 70%. Like there are things that people have to focus on that are growth. The problem with SaaS, as people are realizing, is SaaS is directly at odds with artificial intelligence. And I've been writing about it. We've talked about it here. People that love the show seem to be OK with me. The second I started talking about the fact I don't want to be involved in tech, they're

like, oh, that's already happened. I wrote a piece on software needing to be re-rated in December. That's what's happening. The problem is SaaS had its biggest bubble ever and the most VC investments the same year the crypto space did. They are combined. They are connected. So I think people are missing the fact that so far this year, the IGV, which is the software

ETF, as of yesterday's close, was down 24%. Bitcoin, as of this morning, when we walked in here, was down 24%. These are year to date. You can't, the overlay of the two is eerie. So I think when you can find something that says Bitcoin is being treated like a software group, but here's the thing about it. There are a lot of hedge funds who also have private arms. They have investments.

I'm not going to go through the names, but a lot of them have had a lot of trouble in 2022. These are like the crossover funds you're saying. Yes, they have a large hedge fund where they're buying public stocks, but they also have private investments they're making like a VC, but it's a crossover. And you also have endowments. you have other places that have made significant investments in private equity, private credit, VC. Well, all of a sudden, the entire long duration asset market has been, it's been

questioned. So what is happening with software? You're starting to read stories about how it's impacting private debt, private equity. Well, there's also hedge funds. And you know what, if hedge funds want to hedge, how do you hedge all of your illiquid private investments in SaaS? Well, if you want to do something liquid, that's very correlated. I think Bitcoin is your best alternative. So I think there's a lot of that happening too. So you think institutions may be going long private tech companies or software companies and short Bitcoin as a way to hedge against the privates? So in the equity world, and this happened with Bear Stearns, it happened with Lehman,

it happened with the oil companies, you have to go back to the cap structure. And if you're in trouble with an illiquid asset, okay, you're hoping for an exit strategy. Well, if that thing is being marked down and it's being dragged down with the public equities, if you want to hedge that risk to have something offset it for whatever reason, Bitcoin is part of the cap structure of this because it's related. People look for hedges. So when the energy market was falling back in 2015 and 2016, the debt's sitting there, the equity is going down. So people had to find something to hedge and they were using the equity. So when you're worried about your debt, you go into the equity. It's all cap structure things to kind of protect against losses.

But hedge funds in particular, remember, they're sending out monthly statements. They're going to be asked about the questions on their privates for SaaS. And you go through the numbers of SaaS in terms of what percentage of the VC market it was. And the numbers were enormous in 2021. I think it was equal to the prior three years in terms of deal size. And for crypto, it was at least that it may have been the entire time of crypto. So these are linked.

They're all linked on the private side. It doesn't excuse the fact that Bitcoin was falling before this. But if you do the overlay and software, software has been weak for a while. And I think this is directly related to AI. The good news coming out of this is I did expect eventually software to come down in the mag seven to start to go through a re-rating. I thought Bitcoin would start to diverge at the same time. Instead, what's happened is this fall has been so violent and it's now getting into

there's debt there's everything it just reminds me that it falls the key thing will be for everyone who's watching if this is what i'm saying the privates will not bounce software to me will not have a significant bounce and when i say software for all the people focused on this i am buying palantir this week so it has finally got to levels that for me i can justify buying it um i was late to the party but their earnings were were spectacular in terms of what they're saying about their commercial and enterprise business which fits in with my ai theme you should start to see a divergence between the cyber software, the Palantirs of the world on the analytics and the data storage side, and the enterprise software, the Salesforce.coms, the Adobe's,

they should not bounce very much. If Bitcoin starts to bounce and IGV sits, that means we're starting to see the unwind of the hedges that I believe are put on. And if there are unwinds in the hedges, that's a good sign to at least change the technical picture for Bitcoin. All right. So on the Bitcoin side, this like severe sell-off, I think that there's a lot of people who are trying to figure out why. And why may not matter in the long term. If you just dollar cost averaging to Bitcoin over time, regardless of it's up, down, sideways, you've done very well if you just hold. But people still want to know why. And so the two theories that I have seen that I think are worth talking about. The first is I have seen people who I think

inaccurately describe the fact that Bitcoin's scarcity no longer exists because of the creation of options and ETFs and kind of all the financial instruments around it. There's a difference in my mind between like scarcity and access being increased, but talk about the financialization of Bitcoin and could that be having an impact on why the price is going down? So I think for certain, for people who want to ask the question why and come up with a narrative as to this is not the Bitcoin that I thought, all that stuff. Well, I wrote about that in the silent IPO piece, because I do believe if I got into this to avoid what you're describing, avoid the ETFs, avoid government support, really make it a truly decentralized

version of the world, I'd be getting out too. But I'd also be getting out because of concentration in terms of how much my wealth was in it. So I think all of that has happened. The one thing about this that has been, you know, I'd say, I don't want to say interesting, but I would say just, I think people have to step back and look. Bitcoin's going down at a very similar, I'll say less fall than most of the big software names, except for yesterday's fall of 12%. It had actually been a very orderly, like every day, two to 3%. And I hate to say that that's orderly, but the reality is we're not getting 50, 60, 70, 80 vol. You go through what happened, even with the names like Palantir, these names have

been bludgeoned. They've been hit hard. They're way off their peak as well. So when you can find, again, software names, the big guys, Microsoft is under attack and have moves that are very similar. I actually look at this less about the reasons why. I don't spend a lot of time on the reasons why. I don't believe that the stocks in the S&P 500 can survive the onslaught from AI. That is a belief that I have. And so eventually, when you're looking for moats, you're going to realize there won't be any. Now, are there moats right now? Yes. It's the physical hardware world. I can't say it loud enough. This is all part of a rotation that we've talked about on this show. PMIs would eventually go through 50 and we'd see this rotation into the more commodity side. So

when energy stocks are up 16% year to date and tech stocks are down six, that's something that So this is interesting because when people see GDP exploding, they think stocks all go up. I went back this week and I found an interview, 1992, Stanley Druckenmiller talks to Jack Schwager in the New Market Wizards. And Ty Kim is actually the one who found it. And then I found Ty Kim's picture of it. Now, in there, Druck talks about when the GDP is booming, stocks actually tend to lag behind because you get a central bank that steps in, doesn't want things to run too hot. They start to do different things. What I find interesting is on one hand, we're at – we were at all-time high stock prices.

GDP is supposedly at 5-ish percent and growing. They're cutting rates into that, not raising rates. So that feels different than what Druck was talking back in that 92 interview. The second thing is, if you actually go back and you look at 2000 and some of these kind of economic boom times, the hardware did outperform the software. And I think people may have thought like, oh, we just weren't ready yet. You know, the internet wasn't pervasive enough or consumer behavior or whatever. But maybe actually it's just like the hardware is you have to kind of like lay the future,

right? You have to lay out the data center. you have to lay out, you know, at the time, the wires and all this kind of stuff to make this stuff work. It sounds like that's what you're saying is, hey, there could be headwinds for software stocks and hardware related or commodity related stocks likely will continue to outperform over time, which is not that different from what the historical norm has been. Yeah, I don't, I mean, I don't think there's any question in my opinion, and I'll give

one thing if Stan was sitting here right now and you asked him to talk about that. I'm guessing that one of the things he would say is, well, when I said that, there was no internet. So again, you have to remember that 1992 compared to today, this is a very unique period of time. We just had the four hyperscalers finish their earnings with Amazon last night. CapEx is now up to $650 billion. So remember, everyone was like, they're never going to spend this much.

Not only are they spending numbers, they are so far above what people forecast. So anyone fading the hardware side, those are real spending numbers that are all for hardware. I mean, it's for semiconductors. It's for power. It's for building stuff. Yeah, $650 billion is going to somewhere. Yeah.

Where's that money going? Those stocks may do pretty well. And that's four companies. That does not include Anthropic, OpenAI, and XAI. Those are just those four companies. The other thing is they finished and everyone's panicked like Amazon. The stock's down 10%. Okay, their revenues were the weakest of the hyperscalers, up 14%.

percent. Nominal GDP in this country is 7 percent. And I don't think it's going higher than that in the near term. That's really high. And yet these companies are getting a huge multiple in their revenue. So when you look at those four companies and people like, I think this is trodden, these guys aren't going to get the revenues. I'm like, the lowest of the four was 14 percent year over year revenue growth. They're still growing rapidly. And that's with Amazon, which is part, you know, driving around trucks and dropping stuff off. These companies are making a lot of revenues. The problem is for them, they're also spending tons of money. And I do not believe they should be trading at the multiples that they are. Software companies should not be trading at

the multiples that they are. Amazon, when it started to destroy retail stocks back in the early 2011, 12 period, retail stocks started to fall, very similar to software. And you know what? people would argue who wanted to buy them. They would argue that I'm not buying clothes online. Macy's shouldn't be going down. I understand why bookstores will be going down, but why would, I'm never going to buy clothes online. Well, now you fast forward. Not only has that happened, they were right to short those stocks. Macy's is still around, but it's not a company anymore. And so what happened was they took the price to free cashflow and they put it down. That's what's happening in the software names. Anyone who wants to argue me that Salesforce.com or Adobe has any

chance of competing with AI has not used Claude code in any meaningful way. You cannot make that argument to me and think about it clearly and not realize they're a growth company. They need to have their multiples come down and yet they'll be like Macy's. They'll still be around in 10 years. This episode is brought to you by Figure. My friends at Figure are giving away $25,000 in usdc as part of their democratized prime sweepstakes here's how it works from january 20th through february 20th figures awarding one grand prize winner twenty thousand dollars in usdc and then five additional winners will get one thousand dollars in usdc each for a total of twenty five thousand dollars in prizes to enter all you have to do is download the figure markets app using my

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like the last five or 10% of software is actually what really makes it valuable. The distribution can be a moat. The, you know, belief that you can start, but it's really hard to perfect software to be used internally at companies. Like this is the argument that the kind of the people who don't believe, you know, these software companies are going to get disrupted that are making. What's your response to them? Is it a thing where, I don't know, DocuSign or Salesforce or whoever, literally every company is going to go and create their own version of it internally? Is it somebody with an idea and a dream says, hey, I'm just going to create an AI empowered version of this, and I'm going to go and I'm going to sell it for cheaper because I

don't need as many employees. And so it's still a startup and an external company that you're contracting with for the software, but it's just done at a cheaper level and that's what's disruptive? How does Salesforce lose? Or what is the path here? So maybe because I consider myself, not consider myself, I'm AI native at this point. I use it all day long, nonstop, whole time. I think people need to get into a room and just go AI native, an old school enterprise company. Are the old school enterprise companies today going to get rid of salesforce.com? No. But that's because they're old school enterprise companies that still have mainframe from IBM for a lot of their storage place. They haven't even got off of that. For AI native startups and

for people like me, are you kidding me? Why would I ever do that? What about cybersecurity? Well, that's why I have a Mac mini. That's why I have open source on my Mac mini. And then I've got my laptops. I've got separate things. I've got a sandbox that is completely secure. And then I've got the thing that has all my files on it. I just think when you're AI native, this concept doesn't go. The reason that's important, I don't believe there will ever be another enterprise. I don't believe that will exist in an AI native world. There will be billions of startup companies that are individual people. They'll be run with AI agents. If you believe in that, how is Salesforce going to make a sale to an AI agent? How's that going to happen if AI agents are making all the

transactions. This is actually a world where people haven't even incorporated humanoids into the equation of the way they value companies. Anyone can sit here and make an argument for sales.com, there's no way software won't exist. You have to prove to me at the multiples that are there in the future that they won't be disrupted. I'm saying the probability of two disruptions. One is that the buyers of the future will be AI native and won't care. You're talking about the buyers of the past. I agree the buyers of the past may still be going, but if there's less of them and their budgets are under attack from the people that are using AI agents, it's there. Everyone should go read the Palantir Earnings. This is a company that if you ask

the same people about Salesforce, we'll say it's a defense company. Their commercial enterprise revenues are soaring over 100% year over year and over 100% quarter over quarter. So their growth is still going rapidly. And when you read the testimonials from their clients, they're getting rid of their entire software stack. So if you believe that your company, you're investing in companies that will be zombies, the ones that won't be zombies will be using AI and be AI native, and they will be using companies like Palantir. So you're long Palantir, you're short these old school ones. Nobody wants to hear it, but that's the way that my mentality goes on this. Well, I've never seen you look like that. What would make you change

your mind? So on a particular company, they'd have to actually be showing that they've been able to pivot as a company. They've been able to bring agents into there. So agent force was a massive attempt. It hasn't worked yet. So if they can find a way to not have their business disrupted. And I will remind people that I worked at Morgan Stanley, the amount of, there's like so many companies with inside Morgan Stanley. When you get to these big enterprises, I mean, there's Dean Witter inside Morgan Stanley. There's a fixed income division. There's an, these are all like different companies. They all have their own software stack. They all pay for all their own things. If that company now rolls their data up to the top and you stick an agent on top of it,

could Salesforce still be there? Yeah. As a data storage place. But why would you pay for the agents if you can have an agent just going into it and going through? And that's why using Claude bot and thinking about the world will, will look like knowing what MCP is connecting into your applications. The question is, will they be able to grow their earnings? I just don't see it happening. Yeah. You know, what's interesting is, um, we have a number of teams now that have started to uh use this stuff and what stuff agents that are you know somebody else built that they are just simply uh employing in their day-to-day activities we have one team in particular that is built a bunch of proprietary agents that you know is very kind of customized to what they're

doing and then we have what i would consider a number of folks who uh they actually don't know anything about agents. They simply are going to the people who we either are contracting with or whatever and saying, Hey, I just need you to automate my workflow. Like I'll give you a good example. We have a business. One of the things that they do is they scan a bunch of different information sources and they basically come up with every single day, almost think of it as like a insights report. And they use that both internally and externally. Well, that's a very easy thing for AI to do is go scan these information sources, come up, you know, summarize it, whatever. Helpful. Then the next action was, okay, take this insights report and

create a document that then can be used for outbound communication and internal communication. It's not working very well. Okay. So I met with a team recently and they say, it's broke. We can't use it. It takes extra steps. And I said, well, this is a active learning brain, right? If you train it, it will get better over time. And you could see them being like, oh, this is not like a static thing. When I get salesforce.com software, it just either does it or it doesn't, right? Like it either works or it doesn't. There's nothing I can really do with Salesforce to train it to be better for my specific use case. This software is like a living, breathing thing that can constantly iterate. And I think that that is a mental shift that I had to go through. And then once you

realize that you're like, well, if it doesn't work for your specific use case, it's because you haven't trained it yet and it shifts that responsibility to the person to get more value out of you know the living breathing thing this is this is an important um point for people listening trying to learn about this so i was at a uh a consulting presentation yesterday and i'm going through how i go from a a signal so it could be from a podcast it could be from a conference it could be something that you say to me on the show that just it connects in my mind like a a Sherlock Holmes moment where all of this stuff comes together. I'm like, Ooh, I gotta go spend some time on that. So I was showing them how I take that moment and how at the end, I come up

with 15 to 25 different ideas, which then 22 V sends out to his clients. And it's this whole big thing. And I was showing them how to do it. So at the very end, um, one of the, one of the people asked about my prompts, cause I showed them my prompts and like, so if we just take your prompts and we just use them. And I said, well, I'm going to give you the prompts, but you're now using the Google search mentality. You can't do that. This is the reason why software companies won't be around. It has to be customizable. And I looked and I said, you've got 30 smart people around this table right now. Each one of you has been hired because you have a unique story. You grew up in a particular place. You're not all from this country. I can see it. The way that elegant

systems should be built, there should be 30 smart brains doing different things, not using the same software. So if I give you the prompt, I highly recommend you take the prompt and you start tailoring it to you. My prompts have the Santa Fe Institute model in there. You may not want that. I want to be a systems thinker and I want to look at things. Maybe you don't. Maybe you want to go into a particular vertical and emphasize the one that's most important. But whatever your strength as an individual. The thing about AI is it's a thinking partner. You have to build a relationship with it. And if you do, it's customized to you as opposed to it being a software button where you're pressing a button and it's doing the exact same thing, which in most cases is not what you

actually want. It's what the system can do. I forget the name of the company. Sequoia just invested, I think for the second or third time in it. And they said that at the board meetings, this company taps into all of your business systems. And then it's kind of like an overlay. you can talk to it uh and they said at the board meetings for the company they just keep asking the model what to do and so they were you know like dog fooding their own product and i sat there and i was like man it is we're getting to a kind of a crazy world and then i saw um cheeky pint i think it's uh the the colson uh brother and um and dork cash did uh with elon and i just saw i haven't listened to the whole thing yet but in it elon is talking about the companies that

replace humans with agents and robotics are going to have a significant uh advantage and what he talks about is he goes there used to be buildings full of people doing calculations now your calculator or your phone can do everything that was in that building you know floors and floors of people doing calculations on pieces of paper and all stuff it replaced it and it reminds me of have you ever heard the Carl Icahn story? He bought a business and he went to go see, there was an office in New York and in Chicago. And he says, he goes, talks to the owners in New York and he says, well, I'm going to think I'm going to go see the guy in Chicago, who's kind of like the second in command. And the New York guys go, no, no, no, no, you don't need to do

that. Just talk to us. He goes, okay. And he goes and sees the guy in Chicago. He said, don't tell him I'm coming, but you know, what are the guys in New York do? And the guy goes, listen, I've been here for 20 years or whatever. I have no clue what the people in New York do. And he goes, okay. So he goes back to New York and he fires like eight floors of people all in one day. And he goes, and nothing changed at the business, right? And he tells it kind of in the Carl Icahn way, right? Whatever. And I'm just like, so this has been going on for a long time, but now what you're getting is you're basically getting these people who are AI native, who understand how this technology can be used. And they're saying, not only do I not have to go

and hire people, but I can do things that I could never do before. And I think that may be the most important part. And we learned this lesson in crypto. If you look at the crypto world, what are the things that ended up having the most value? They were native to crypto. Bitcoin is a native asset, right? It wasn't take a real estate fund and bring it into the crypto world. It was build something that's native. And so to me, in AI, we haven't really seen a lot of those companies yet right we're starting clawbot might be one you know molt book like there's a couple of these things and then maybe the last data point i saw is now some companies are reporting that more more than 50 of the visits to their technical documentation is agents not humans like it's

coming uh it's here and so i just want to remind people and i i did a presentation i'm only back in New York as of last night. So I saw you in Miami. It took me a while to get back here. You were on a world tour. I was on a world tour, but I was giving a presentation. I mean, you wear a shirt like that and just give him a guitar, the guy will be a headliner. My favorite shirt. My favorite shirt. I have two of them. I'm doing a presentation for endowments and foundations. And I basically went through the IQ of this. And I just want to make sure people realize that when you read things about AI bubble, when you go through this,

There are benchmarks and there are ways to go. But the most important thing for the AI agent side is, so when ChatGPT was launched, you're dealing with an IQ of somewhere around 100 by the end of 2023, average intelligence of a human being. And that's why you're getting a lot of mistakes. People are using it. They're asking questions. They're complaining about the hallucinations.

Then next year, it goes up to 110 to 120. And then we finished last year, 2025 at 130. And now Blackwell is going to be coming in. we're going to have these massive gigacenters coming online. And you're going to see the models dramatically improve. And you're going to get up to 140 to 150. We're approaching Einstein level. So for everyone who has doubted it, call the bubble. They got me. You can't have AI agents without having enough compute. I mean, as it is, look at the RPOs that Microsoft said that Oracle has. That is demand that they can't fulfill. Semi-analysis wrote a great substack. And in

there, they highlighted the percentage. I think it's two-thirds now of all of the GitHub code being built is by Claude Code, not humans. So again, you're reaching a point where agents are happening. The IQ is getting higher, so the models are getting better. And now you've got Claude Code. So when we talked about Opus 4.5 coming out and that that was a moment, in hindsight, that was exactly the moment that we started to accelerate into this world of agents it was the beginning of the agentic world and it's only going to accelerate the rest of this world and that's why when you ask the question about software companies what could change the view it's the same question that happened with retail stocks are there some retail stocks that have been better

than macy's of course and there will be some software companies that are better i think cyber companies are being thrown out with the bathwater i think you know snowflake and palantir they're being thrown out. You look for the divergence. I just don't think that if you are a company like Adobe that is making stuff, I understand there's people that love it and they're passionate about Adobe and that's great, but you can do things in nano banana and you can do things just in Gemini and in all of these things that like replace at least some of it. So just admit to yourself that if you were priced as a growth company that was based on more enterprises every year in nominal GDP, your disconnect is coming from nominal GDP. Your revenues will no longer

be associated, in my opinion, with nominal GDP unless you spend lots of money on the agentic side, on the getting more salespeople. Either way, if you're spending that kind of money, I just don't see it. And for the Microsoft fans out there, they have high RPOs, they're spending tons of money, and I use every AI tool. I have not touched Copilot for more than a second. each month over the past two years, and I still, it's on my screen, I don't use it. So I don't know if Microsoft can't do it, how are these other companies gonna do it?

The counter argument to that I think is Google with Gemini, I think they reported most recently 750 million monthly actives. Now it's a different type of product. The distribution is kind of being inserted into the workflow of Google searches, et cetera. It does feel to me like it is a narrative violation search volume is up because everyone thought that the you know lms were going to take that search

volume away but i wonder how much of it is just tied to the fact that you're getting an ai you know kind of summary i find myself you know using that quite a bit rather than scrolling down and seeing the links and so how are they going to make ad revenue like you know like there's kind of the second and third order effects um you realize you're you're making my argument to agree on on the enterprise side because google is the dominant operating system for small businesses yes and for enterprises it's microsoft yes so again i'm i'm talking about ai native google old enterprises with mainframes from ibm microsoft it's two different worlds i i don't disagree uh turbulence model explain what this is and uh why is everyone so interested in what you got

going on with your turbulence model so i posted this in an accident it led to a a lot of reach out and 22v has it and they sent it out to clients so again on christmas day i wanted to build a model that i had asked many many times over the years for my team to build and it just was impossible because i had to be involved to such a high degree and this is really a sales pitch for people to try Clawed code and to just build something they always wanted to build. But very simply, turbulence model, I went to GitHub and I said, get me the five highest rated turbulence models. So again, I'm not reinventing the wheel.

I'm taking what's out there. GitHub, there's all kinds of stuff that people have posted in there. Give me the five highest rated turbulence models and then give me the five best that are out there in terms of the usage side. And so I ended up using those, coming up with one model that I use. And I said, here's what I want to do. I'm going to give you 100 assets that I think are the most important in the marketplace. So at any given time, there's probably 100 assets that have high volume. They're diversified. So it's across all these different components. And I literally said, I want you to take these 100. Half of them are purely AI-related names. So

the CapEx side, all that. And the other half are more diversified, commodities, everything. and what i want you to do is when the relationship between correlation and volatility breaks apart and this is getting a little wonky but basically it's a covariance matrix and i want to see when it's shaking meaning all of a sudden like a a warning signal for an earthquake you don't feel it yet but it's happening under under the ground you just can't feel it i wanted to get a model that did that, but then also only gave me a warning signal when it was still above the 50 day moving average on the index. So basically a true tremor system. And it gave me the first true, like, okay, big problems ahead. And that was on Tuesday morning. And I, I posted it and I just

said, all right, if this is right, you can expect a decline and it should start to hit the market level and vol will go higher now the interesting thing about this was it right so far it's i mean there's been more fall falling um i would say that if it's right the market would probably need to go down five percent on the s&p and so far it hasn't done that but that would be where i would determine that it was right in terms of what's going on what it did do is it led to more vol so the vix has gone 15 20 percent higher from where it was we obviously saw the software names get hit And the S&P broke below the 50-day moving average. There's no more warning signals.

The reason I think it's important for people to think about this, I do believe that in a market that is a transition away from concentration to deconcentration, and that's what we're doing, guys. You've been complaining for years that there's only seven names. Those seven names to me will not outperform the market anymore. They are spending tons of money. They are becoming like commodity companies. Their multiple has to come down.

They are not going to get the revenues necessary, in my opinion, in the amount of time that are there. And if you want to go back to the Elon Musk, when you finally get to listen to the whole thing. Did you listen? I listened to half of it so far. At the very beginning, he makes his statement and it'll be in my video for sure. I posted on X last night and it just said, the software, and I forget what he said, the software lads or the software people are going to realize scaling in software is very different than scaling in hardware. And I think his point was spoken from the King. I think his point was, if you think about it, what is the difference between Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai, Demis Hassabis, go through Sam Altman, go through the list.

He's an engineer. He builds rocket ships. He is a hardware guy. He imported a power plant to do it. And all he talked about on there was we're not going to have any gas turbines. Like, I don't know how to tell people we can't magically make them. They're really hard. There's three companies. Will we get more? Yeah, but not enough to power this. So he was reemphasizing the data centers in space and saying there will be enough in there

for, I think he said, I can't remember how many gigawatts, but let's just say he said by 2030, we will, or within 30 months, we will already be doing this. Most people have been telling me repeatedly on the energy side. there's no way you can do this. It won't work. He's not only saying it, he's now saying in 30 months, they'll be up there. Today's episode is brought to you by Fountain Life. Are you ready to seize the day that will change your life? Guaranteed. You invest in wealth creation every single day, but what's the point of it without an optimal health span? Award-winning Fountain Life is the world's most advanced longevity destination. And in just one day, they can map

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there's a marketplace to resell equipment instead of being stuck. To help people think it through whether mining actually makes sense right now, they put together a short resource called the 2026 Bitcoin Mining Blueprint. It walks through the five mistakes investors make when allocating to mining and they also explain how to avoid them before deploying capital if it sounds interesting to you you can get it for free at simplemining.io slash pomp that's simplemining.io slash pomp go check it out today and see if you should get into the mining game you know what's interesting to me um in the army there's this uh consensus view uh the man to fear is the old man in the infantry because it's a young man's game. And so either people get too tired or they get killed.

And so if you're the old guy who survived and is still excited, et cetera, that's a scary dude. Elon to me is the equivalent in the technology world. The man to fear is the man who has stared into the abyss, chewing glass over and over and over again with making the Teslas in the parking lot having three rockets blow up at spacex all this stuff and he still shows up every day and he's kind of showing up and he's like oh you young you know you young bucks with all the enthusiasm wait till you go through all this pain that i've gone through and look we need other people to go we need other people to try to do this um but man are we glad that we have him you know it just feels like he is becoming he's pulling away from everyone in terms of his importance to humanity

which almost seems like not possible compared to what people already thought about him you know two years ago three years ago he's the he's the most important person to listen to right now because the one thing i will say about elon which is different than uh jensen all the others i'll say demis hasabis and even dario modi to some degree but i'll say demis and elon match on one thing when they speak i really do believe they're speaking what they believe. I think there's so much sales that's going into fundraising in this. And I think Elon just doesn't care. He just literally talks about what he thinks will happen. That's why there's really nothing going. Is he wrong on time? He'll always be wrong on time. A lot of it is an

optimism that he has in terms of when the spaceships will be ready, when the data centers will be ready in space, all of that stuff, why we're going to Mars. But when he gets philosophical and you listen to him, I think what he said about the software people, meaning these companies that are spending $650 billion to build data centers. If you listen to what Elon said, he literally said, I don't know if there's any value to it. And the reason is, number one, it's a lot harder than they think. And trust me, when they get to the end and they think it's done, it's not done. There's problems that show up. On the flip side, he started talking a lot about edge and decentralized. And And the interesting thing, he considers Teslas as data centers because they are.

Now, the beauty is for him, he goes, if you're a data center, you need gas turbines, you can find the gas. Decentralized edge AI, if the cars are all edge, it's much easier. You just plug them in at nighttime and you're recharging. You can't do that with a data center. So he was saying that eventually the training models will not be as important and the localized edge models will be far more important. And that's his belief in robotics. That's his belief in everything. I think people should really listen to it because number one, it's a very, very

different investment world. There's different winners. There's different losers. This whole data center buildup, this is why NVIDIA got involved with Grok because the whole data center we need GPUs is evolving and moving. And that is one of the reasons why all of this stuff is changing. And this is the reason why small caps are working and energy's working. There's just different things that are going to happen. And the reason the PMI broke out through 50, which again, I took a lot of garbage from people saying it's not going to happen, blah, blah, blah. We don't have, to stand Druckenmiller's point, we don't have a raging GDP in housing. We don't have a raging GDP in commercial real estate. We don't have a raging economy in autos. Those three

things is what drove the economy back then. You could not have an economy growing like it is now without those three working back then. They're not working. And that's why consumer confidence is sitting at all-time lows, at least on you, Mish, while the stock market's at all-time highs. Rigged. Rigged survey. Don't get me started. People already heard the whole thing.

It's rigged. But yes, it is. People are bearish. This past week, I publicly disclosed that I bought Tesla shares. Am I dumb for doing this? Is this smart? It's sold off.

And of course, there's geniuses on the internet. Like, ah, this guy bought. he bought and look it went down look how dumb he is i may even consider buying more as it goes down um but what are your thoughts on tesla spacex xai like all like this whole like elon universe i feel like maybe every week now we're gonna have to do a little like update on current thoughts because he's moving so quickly um let's start with maybe tesla then we can do it go to i think it's gonna be called spacex i think it's gonna be the name of the company but what are your thoughts at the moment. So when you started this, you said, am I dumb? I like, yes, not because you

bought Tesla, but yes, in general. Well, I was thinking, I'm like, is it because he bought Tesla or he put it on X to let everyone know you were just looking for some attention and getting some people to just send some stuff off? 100%. You know why? What I have learned is when I make an investment, I like to publicly talk about it usually because it does two things. One, you immediately get all of the critiques. So, you know exactly what, okay, here, you know, whatever. But the thing I actually find more valuable is it's the silent majority of people who are invested in something and some of them will DM me. And then I find, okay, here's the six people that I can talk to that are like really into it. And there's one guy, I don't want to say

his name unless he would be comfortable with it, but he runs a YouTube page dedicated to Tesla. he reached out to me and um as we were talking through it i mean his depth of understanding compared to mine i'm like you know a two-year-old i know who you're talking and so uh as soon as we started talking more about it i i said to him i said you know what is your current viewpoint and i thought i was bullish and so it was like i felt like okay i'm going to school here a little bit and and so you know you serve a magnet you put a magnet out in the world you're gonna get some hate but you're also gonna get the positives but okay what do you think so again i this is another one of these companies that is part of the mag7 so i think damn it i think all of the

mag7 stocks let's go through this separately as a group are going to have a are going to have trouble relative to the s&p and the reason is they're the ones spending the money on energy spending the money on silver spending the money on cooling systems spending all of the people getting that money are going to win i don't think they're going to get the revenues for the reason that microsoft has rpos which basically means they now have a liability that is stretching far and unless they can increase the capacity and elon musk is telling me the data center is going to be harder to build out you're not going to be able to monetize that like i can see where this is an issue and at a minimum the multiple should come down the companies are great the revenues are

growing not a problem ladies and gentlemen that's the nicest way anyone's ever told me you're going to lose money no no see now now is where the important part comes just like we need bitcoin to separate from software you need tesla eventually to separate from those companies because tesla he has already built out the scaling for this he's moving into robotics and hardware which is the next stage de decentralized compute or edge ai it's all about humanoids it's all about the automobiles it's all what what did we hear from google wasn't waymo doing a big raise all of a of a sudden why are they doing that well because they don't have many cars and because elon's about to press the button and have gazillion cars what did he do with the model s and what did he's

stopping these cars because he needs to be making mainly humanoids and not as many cars like we're at a stage now where i have said it i'll continue to say it will be the best performing large cap stock this year over any of the mags tesla tesla so i'm in i'm i'm on board with you i'm already down like 10 so that needed think about where we were april of last i agree i agree so uh do you want to know uh there's one thesis as to why i made an investment decision last time i was with you had shorts on by the way and now you look like a rock star um if he controls the labor force in the future it's a 10 trillion dollar company that that's it like that is the bet is that he is going to control the labor force and people will say what do you mean the billionaire is

going to control the people but no no he has the most number of transportation vehicles on the road and he has the most number of humanoids, he wins. He wins equals at least 10 trillion, maybe even more. But that was the ultimate decision. Like you can go do all the cashflow modeling, blah, blah, whatever. It's just like at the end of the day, can this guy be the one who controls the labor force?

If so, he will have a 10 plus trillion dollar prize. What I don't know is what is the path there? How long will it take? what is the cash flow associated like all of that stuff i think what is probably different about my approach to investing versus a lot of public market investors is at my heart i'm a venture investor and it is an asymmetric bet that this guy is going to pull that off if he does it works if he doesn't i don't know maybe i lose 50 right i don't think goes to zero but you know there's some significant downside but that's a hell of a lot better than a venture bet where it could go

to zero and so uh what i do start thinking about is as a tesla shareholder now you know do you want him to put spacex and xai in with tesla or do you want him actually to keep those two separate i don't have a strong opinion yet but there becomes this question as to like putting them together is cool and like you're kind of cheering for the guy but from a equity return standpoint would it be good or not is a little unclear what do you think so on the on the on the first part about the 10 trillion dollar company thing you hit on all the reasons why uh it's going to take a long time to get there even if you believe in all of the stuff and scaling the one thing i will say is eventually you get to the problem of either capital because

he's got to expand. He wants to go to Mars. He wants to put the data centers in space. He wants the robo taxis and the robo trucks to be everywhere and humanoid. So part of the issue comes down to he's the master of scaling, but he also will need capital. And the question is, can he just go out there and get the capital that he needs? And will it have to be in the form of debt? Will he have to make a big bet just like the hyperscalers did? And will that become an issue? because the one thing I just don't know with AI and even robotics, the problems that they've still been trying to solve

in robotics, if you take a robot and you have a humanoid and you wanna recreate the humanoid, well, then the humanoid will recreate the humanoid. Eventually you get to the same moat problem. And I have no idea. So I'm leaving it as he needs to merge these companies because he actually needs to figure out the capital situation for everything that he wants to do.

It's a very big thing. as much as I like Elon, the one thing that he has absolutely erred on, 100% is the timing of everything. Now you're talking about the merging of four things together and he's got to pick and choose. It's not that he's not capable of it in terms of any one, but one of the things that becomes hard is when you're trying to grow four things at the exact same time in scale. And that's the difference. The SpaceX thing has worked, but if he's going to send out as many data centers as satellites, as he's saying, can he do that? And can he produce the cars? And can he produce the humanoids? And can he get the money to raise it? Maybe he can. But I'll just say,

I think the stock is going to do great. I do think the robo taxis will be front loaded into the TAM you're talking about. I do think the humanoids will be brought in. So I think his valuation is going to be very Bitcoin-ish in terms of there's a narrative associated with what it'll look like five years from now and 10 years from now. But I do think there's some risk along that path when elon says the wrong timeline elon's not wrong the time is wrong it's like two men in the world elon and chuck norris where that is true um all right tell us uh what's going on on sub stack and then you got two youtube videos coming out uh this weekend uh yeah i'm so sub stack i've actually done a lot of you guys are interested in what this whole phenomenon is with malt book

um molt book i actually wrote something like quickly uh while i was in l.a or arizona to make sure it got it got out so the substack doing great hrv i am gonna jordy writing and when he gets done he hits send and then goes blows his hot fingers i did three substacks plus a 22v thing last week and i've got a bunch coming out this week i do love writing guys and it's a way for to take what's in my head when i hear something and put it out there the videos uh and the hrv thing is done exceptionally well thank you guys for going through this week is probably the most important one in terms of what i'm going to do for it you should pay attention to because i have this ring for a reason the reason i got it was for a warning system for health and this includes

everything in health i wanted to raise my hrv and i just want to let people know if i were to get cancer, my HRV would start moving lower at the stage that my body was trying to heal itself way before you see it. This is very similar to the turbulence model. I wanted this. And the reason I focused on HRV and moving it up to a high level was so that I got it to a level that was associated with a much younger person. And then if it started to decline over the course of weeks, when I wasn't changing anything, that would mean that my body, something is going on in my body to make it go down. So this week is going to be the reason why I started to write this, the reason why I have it, and the reason why I think if people really care about their health, and it's more, I didn't want

to die from a heart attack. I didn't want to die from cancer. Because if you find cancer day one and you go to the hospital, your probabilities of success go up dramatically. I'm an analytics person at the end of the day. The YouTube stuff, I'm going to do my regular weekly YouTube. But as I was putting it together, there is so much to do this week because of what's happening with SaaS that I'm going to do by popular demand because it's been a reach out from people. I will do a second video. I'm not sure it'll come out this weekend because I don't know if I'm going to have the time, but it will come out next week on Bitcoin itself and really trying to give people perspective

of why this is directly connected to the post-COVID world, why people should view it that way. And I'm seeing a lot of signs right now that people are calling it magic beans and all this stuff. And that means to me that not only are the people depressed with inside the space, now people on the outside are pouncing on everyone and basically putting their face and going through it that's usually a sign of being near a bottom so i love it i love it all right thank you guys very much see you guys next week