The Pomp Podcast - Can Bitcoin Hit $1 Million? | Anthony Pompliano

Episode Date: May 11, 2026

Anthony Pompliano investigates whether bitcoin can actually hit $1 million per coin. In this episode, we break down what Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, Tim Draper, and others are predicting, run the math on what it would take, and cover the four key demand drivers that could get us there.===================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.===================0:00 - Intro0:26 - Michael Saylor: Bitcoin to $10 million1:05 - Tim Draper: Bitcoin to $10 million1:47 - Cathie Wood: Bitcoin to $1.5 million by 20304:07 - Adam Back: Bitcoin to $1 million by 20284:39 - Matthew Siegel: Bitcoin to $1 million in ~5 years6:08 - Eric Trump: Conviction on $1 million bitcoin6:57 - The math: What growth rate does bitcoin need?9:26 - The 4 drivers that get bitcoin to $1 million9:41 - Driver 1: The bear market bottom (Lynn Alden)11:05 - Driver 2: Governments buying bitcoin (Brian Armstrong)12:05 - Driver 3: Institutional adoption (Dylan LeClair)13:59 - Driver 4: Money printing & retail demand15:10 - Final verdict: Can Bitcoin hit $1 million?

This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. If you pull a muscle, all of a sudden you realize how often you use that muscle. So the bladder is exactly like that.

When it's working well, we don't think about it. But when it's not working properly, you're getting up at night, or in the cases of many men, you may have some leakage. If this is something that's affecting your quality of life, there are really good solutions these days. Depend makes the guard and the shield. The shield would be if you have some leakage on occasion, if you have heavier leakage, you could use the guard.

All of a sudden, everyone is predicting that Bitcoin is going to hit a million dollars per coin. Is this actually possible? That's what we're going to investigate today. And if it is possible, on what timeline could Bitcoin hit a million dollars? Now, before we get into the math behind this and what the potential drivers could be to accomplish a million dollars per coin, let's first look at what everyone is predicting. We can start with Michael Saylor, who says that if the world knew what he knows, Bitcoin would be at $10 million a coin. Take a listen. If people in the rest of the world knew what I know, and they understood and they agreed with me, Bitcoin would go to $10 million tomorrow.

And if Bitcoin went to $10 million tomorrow, I want you to think about how you would feel and how your viewers would feel, because you would lose 20 years of stacking opportunity during which you get to buy it less than $10 million. So the difference between $10 million and $100,000, that's what you give up if the volatility goes away and people start to agree with you. Now, Michael Saylor is not the only person who thinks that Bitcoin is going to $10 million. Billionaire Tim Draper, he says that trillions of dollars are going to flow into Bitcoin. And he also predicts Bitcoin at $10 million. Take a listen. Not only is Bitcoin against the dollar a really good bet, you're seeing the dollar fall as fast

as you're seeing Bitcoin grow. And that combination is going to, you know, it'll hit 250,000, but it's going to hit a million. It's going to hit 10 million on its way to where the dollar is no longer accepted, no longer worth it. And Bitcoin is the one source of store of value and currency for the world eventually. Now, those are pretty interesting thoughts from Tim there. Cathie Wood thinks that Bitcoin is going to $1.5 million by 2030. Take a listen to why she says the banks were sitting on the sidelines, but now that they're participating, she thinks a million point five by 2030. Your price target for Bitcoin is bull case north of one million US dollars.

So if you had that bull case for more than one million USD Bitcoin, has your forecast timeline to reach that price now shortened? Yes, that target what we evolved in, it was before the SEC gave us gave us the green light and i think that was a major milestone and it has pulled forward the timeline um one thing i will say right now no wire house whether we're talking about morgan stanley uh or uh merrill lynch b of a or uh ubs or wells fargo no no platform has approved uh Bitcoin yet. So all of this price action has happened before they approved. We haven't even begun. So what's your timeline for 1 million USD Bitcoin now? And is there perhaps a price target

beyond that now? Yes, our target is above that. We've got a 2030 target. So it's well above that. And with our new expectations for institutional involvement, the incremental price that that we assume for institutions, um, actually has more than doubled. So, uh, you know, I don't want to give out any particular, uh, uh, prices, but because we don't know, um, how quickly we don't know how quickly, um, some, the, the more independent registered investment advisors here in the United States, those platforms are saying, give us three months to do our due diligence. The others are saying we need at least six months. So, you know, I would put those in the institutional bucket as well. But in your view, Kathy, all of the factors are moving the price

of this in an upwards trajectory. Yes, indeed. It's pretty interesting to hear Kathy Wood, someone who is very well respected on Wall Street, talking about Bitcoin going to 1.5 million. Now, somebody who's well respected in the Bitcoin industry is Adam Back. Some people even think that He is Satoshi Nakamoto. But Adam says that Bitcoin is going to a million dollars by 2028. Take a listen to Adam's logic here. You know, ultimately, people could only sell once. So, you know, the people that have sold and the number of coins that are left on exchange

is diminishing. So at some point, we'll see a pickup. But of course, short term, Bitcoin is quiet. There you guys have it. Somebody who's considered one of the people in the running to be Satoshi. He says a million by 2028. Now, Matthew Siegel, he's at the $200 billion asset manager VanEck. He says Bitcoin is going to hit a million dollars in the next several years.

Take a listen to his logic. Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years. But it's a very cyclical asset. There's no bailouts in Bitcoin. So it's going to be cycles along the way. Right now, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has actually reached a five-year high. So a lot of this is a macro move.

And what keeps us encouraged, even at current levels, is that we're not seeing the froth in the derivatives markets. If you look at the options markets, the futures markets, to us, it still looks like this is a short covering rally, which means positioning is negative. And so we're feeling pretty constructive. The big move is really in the miners today. You said a million dollars in Bitcoin, which is at 80K now. Yeah. I mean, it's going to take some number of years. How many years for that? Um, maybe half a decade, I think, is possible. Five years?

Yeah. When you look at the demographic trends and the intentions of young investors to allocate to Bitcoin, it's going to be like the video game industry, where 30 years ago it was just kids playing video games. Now Elon Musk plays video games. People don't quit. They also don't quit Bitcoin. And we now have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves.

So this is a mega trend, but it's going to be very volatile along the way. and we're trying to smooth out some of that volatility. So that's somebody from Wall Street saying a million dollars as well. Now, last but not least, Eric Trump, he's got all the insight of what's going on at the White House. He says that Bitcoin is also going to a million dollars. Take a listen. So a long time ago, I said that Bitcoin was going to hit a million dollars.

And I have absolute conviction in my mind that Bitcoin is going to hit a million dollars. I don't know if it's 2030. I don't know if it's 2031, but I absolutely believe it gets there. I believe we're in the infancy. I think our best days are ahead of us, guys. The compression is happening. It's happening right now in ways that so many people can't even comprehend. And I've never been more bullish on this asset class in my life. So there you have it. Whether it's Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, Tim Draper, Matthew Siegel,

Adam Back, Eric Trump, or many others, they continue to say $1 million, $1.5 million, or $10 million. These are big numbers for an asset that's simply sitting around $80,000 today. But what's the math behind this? What exactly would Bitcoin have to do in order to reach a million dollars? Well, we can go and we can take a look. If Bitcoin compounded at 65% for five years, then Bitcoin would hit a million dollars. If Bitcoin simply compounded at 28% every year for 10 years, Bitcoin would hit a million dollars. If Bitcoin compounded at 13% a year for 20 years, then Bitcoin would hit a million dollars.

And lastly, if Bitcoin compounded at 9% a year for 30 years, then Bitcoin would hit a million dollars. Now, when you hear numbers like 65%, 28%, these are big numbers compared to the stock market. But if we go back and we look at what happened over the last 10 years, looking backwards in the rear view mirror for both gold and the S&P, both of those assets, they compounded annually at 14%. Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. I absolutely love these guys. ArchPublic is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Using sophisticated algorithms like the Intelligence, Arbitrage, and Oracle protocols, ArchPublic executes advanced automated crypto strategies, fully customized to your goals.

Is your aim to accumulate Bitcoin during market dips, generate profits from Ethereum volatility, or sell Solana or XRP in layers as it reclaims all-time highs? If so, ArchPublic is built for you. Are you worried about doing it alone? No problem. ArchPublic provides everyone, yes, everyone with hands-on dedicated support from their concierge team to help implement the strategy that you choose. As a preferred trading partner of Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and Gemini, ArchPublic offers a proven track record of security and performance so that you can trade with confidence. Sign up today at archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch, no hidden fees, just smarter trading. Your crypto, your exchange, your profits,

ArchPublic. Go to archpublic.com and tell them I sent you. So the compound annual growth rate for gold and the S&P was 14% for the past decade. That means that if Bitcoin was to hit a million dollars over the next decade, it would simply have to double the return of gold or the S&P. That doesn't seem crazy because if you go and you actually look, Bitcoin over the last 10 years compounded at a rate of 68% for the decade. So Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate could fall more than 50% from where it was. And if it continued to hold at at least 28% for a decade, Bitcoin would hit a million bucks.

Now, this brings the question of if the math is clear of how Bitcoin goes from 80,000 to a million, what exactly could drive us there? Well, I think that there are four major things that everyone needs to understand in order to see how Bitcoin could go to a million. The first is that Bitcoin would have to stop bleeding. We need the bottom to be in of this bear market. Lynn Alden believes that not only is the bottom in,

but also that the fast capital has left and the sellers are exhausted. Take a listen to her logic right here. Historically, Bitcoin tends to have these kind of longer, flatter bottoms than, say, certain stocks, because there's no like a stock, for example, can have like an earnings catalyst. Every four times a year, it comes out with an earnings report and because the price to the upside and suddenly all this news comes in

and just the stock soars because Bitcoin is money. It doesn't have earnings, you know, and so the news tends to change a little bit slower around it, especially now that we already have things like spot ETFs and stuff. I view it less as kind of these upside news events

and more other factors, which is one, over time you see a rotation of the fast money is already out. So you get seller exhaustion. Now, whether it's already entirely out yet, still is an open question. Like it's just like my base case at the bottom is in, but it might not be. But at least a lot of the fast capital is already out. You've seen kind of coins rotate to more strongly held hands.

I think that's a really important kind of factor in kind of building the next base. So if Lynn is correct, which I think that she is, and we actually have seen the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market, then the question becomes, where do the net new buyers come from? And I think that's where we're going to get three major buyers. First, we can look to governments. There's not a lot of governments around the world that currently own Bitcoin, but the theory is that lots of governments will want to own Bitcoin over the next decade or so. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, he recently said in an interview that he believes

that most of the G20 nations will set up Bitcoin reserves over the next coming years. Take a listen to what Brian said here. We also saw the United States of America now has a strategic Bitcoin reserve. So if the United States government is going to begin holding Bitcoin, I think that's going to be a massive driver of demand. And the rest of the G20 countries will probably follow suit. And then the last thing I'd say is that we saw recently the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs by a number of different firms. And Coinbase is actually powering 80% of the custody for those that are out there. But we're seeing a ton of institutional money continue to flow into Bitcoin now that these ETFs are live. So there's a lot of positive tailwinds for Bitcoin. And I think that

there's never going to be more than 21 million Bitcoin ever made in the world. And lots of pools of capital still haven't gotten access to it. So that tells me this thing has a long way to run. Now, if countries are buying Bitcoin, then that probably means that large financial institutions are going to be buying Bitcoin as well. And that is Dylan Leclerc's entire thought process as to how we get to a million or $10 million Bitcoin. He thinks that the large financial institutions have to get in the game and they have to participate. And so here's Dylan talking about the fact that these large financial institutions will help push Bitcoin towards a million dollars. You know, a lot of

Bitcoiners, including myself, had this, you know, vision or has this thesis that Bitcoin wins and, you know, hyper Bitcoinization is this event. And, you know, at some point, Bitcoin's worth a million or five or ten million dollars equivalent at some point in time. But what that actually looks like, right, if you're a Bitcoin maximalist in that fashion, it doesn't happen without all of this happening, right? It doesn't happen without, you know, big bad black rock and the and wall street coming in and institutionalizing the asset like what do you think bitcoin winning looks like it looks like 200 trillion dollars flooding into the market in some way or some form and right so that's you know there's private credit there's there's equity

investment preferred investment senior debt right all of this stuff these are pools of capital that are latent that are ready to be tapped into and right so the genius of of you know michael saylor and strategy from 2020 onwards was realizing that and then creating an instrument for each of those pools, right? And so, you know, stretch is a big, big tam, right? Everybody wants no volatility and high yield, right? So I think that's the golden goose. But I think, you know, a lot of idealist Bitcoiners who think Bitcoin is going to go to $10 million simultaneously dislike Wall Street or dislike the treasury companies. And that's, in my opinion, that's very paradoxical, right? This is what Bitcoin winning looks like.

I got to agree with Dylan. And it makes sense to me that large financial institutions would be buying Bitcoin. So if the bottom's in, if countries are buying and also large financial institutions are buying, then the last question is, what would get individuals to buy more Bitcoin as well? And the simple answer there is money printing. And I think that our generation understands more so than any generation in the past. The US government and governments around the world are never, ever, ever going to stop printing money.

If they never stop printing money, that means they will never stop devaluing the dollar or other fiat currencies. If they don't stop devaluing those currencies, then that means you as an individual investor have to find assets to go and store your hard-earned economic value. Now, Bitcoin is not the only solution.

You can go do this in gold, real estate, or many other assets. But I do believe that the Bitcoin generation, the millennials and below, They have been convinced that one of the best stores of value is Bitcoin. And so if countries are buying, financial institutions are buying, the government is printing and retail is buying, then that likely is all of the demand that we would need to have for Bitcoin to continue to compound annually at 28% every year for a decade.

And if Bitcoin compounds at 28% a year for a decade, Bitcoin will hit a million dollars. And so the big question of can Bitcoin hit a million dollars? 100% absolutely. When will it happen? I'm not sure. I don't have a crystal ball. But compounding at 28% a year for a decade doesn't seem crazy to me. That's double what gold and the S&P did for the past decade.

Bitcoin is a much more volatile asset. I think it's more valuable than those assets. And therefore, 28% seems reasonable to me. And so if you said to me, pick a number and pick a date, those seem to be pretty good inputs. But who knows? We don't know what will happen in the macro environment. We don't know what will happen in technology.

We don't know also how investors will change their mind when allocating capital. All of those things play into this analysis. But at the end of the day, can Bitcoin hit a million bucks? 100%. And if you said to me a compound annual growth rate of 28% over the next decade, that doesn't seem crazy. So my guess is during our lifetime, we're going to see Bitcoin hit two commas. That's it for today's show.

Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe to this YouTube channel. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers and every single one of you that subscribe helps us get there. And I'll see all of you next time.