The Pomp Podcast - Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: July 4, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the AI mid-cycle slowdown, the Fed under Warsh and what rate cuts could mean for markets, the $90 trillion AI infrastructure buildout, memory and Micron's role in the AI bottleneck, and why Jordi believes bitcoin is positioned to be the best performing assets once the negatives of AI start to show up.=====================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~9% APY on real world assets, paid hourly. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at figure.com/disclosures/=====================Looking for a better place to trade? BloFin gives traders access to deep liquidity, advanced futures products for crypto AND TradFi assets, fast execution, and a clean, intuitive interface—all in one platform. To celebrate their partnership with us, they're giving away $100,000 in Deposit & Trade Rewards. Deposit, trade, and earn rewards based on your activity during the campaign. Check them out at ( https://partner.blofin.com/d/Pomp ).=====================This episode is brought to you by mogul ( https://www.mogul.club/pomp ). Deloitte estimates that $4 trillion of real estate will move onto the blockchain over the next decade. Through tokenized residential real estate, mogul gives investors access to professionally managed properties with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and potential tax benefits — all without the headaches of being a landlord. Learn more and claim a special offer at https://www.mogul.club/pomp . See important disclosures at disclaimer.mogul.club.=====================0:00 - Intro1:20 - Has bitcoin bottomed? 6:03 - Bitcoin vs the Mag 7: is the correlation breaking?9:00 - Sam Altman, OpenAI & the government getting involved11:11 - American open source vs Chinese AI models14:28 - AI compute demand & the infrastructure buildout20:37 - AI slowdown: how bad, how long?22:44 - Where do markets go from here? 27:30 - AI agents in the workplace & security risk34:50 - Memory, Micron & the AI bottleneck39:53 - The next 10-20 years: robots, AI & society44:18 - The Fed, rate cuts & inflation's impact on AI49:55 - Why bitcoin wins in the end

And as we go forward, I'm going to say it again, the AI mid-cycle slowdown is basically the peak and the easy money of AI. And so if the money starts filtering back towards the other direction, I've laid out a pretty bullish case for Bitcoin. If you haven't got it, if we're overestimating the inflation side and productivity is coming, if we're overestimating the hawkishness of the Fed from what Warsh said, and at the same time, the AI trade is not going to lose its earnings growth. It's just going to make it more difficult for institutions to stay long at the way they have the past then all of a sudden the the lower volatility of bitcoin will probably lead in if we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that i just said which is up up north

of 70 at this point i do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of ai we'll see if it happens in the second half of the year i think it will what's going on guys today we've got a great conversation with jordy visser it's fourth of july so he's here to explain to us what's going on in the ai trade why he thinks that the mid-cycle slowdown is something you should pay attention to. He also describes why maybe some of the easy trades are gone and things are going to get a little bit harder from here. And then we talk about Bitcoin and why he's getting excited about Bitcoin once again. And then, of course, we go through a whole bunch of macroeconomic data points and he tries to unpack why exactly are some people

ignoring these data points and has he thinking about investing in his portfolio? All that and much more in today's conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, happy 4th of July, little 4th of July edition here with the American flag hat. Let's start with Bitcoin. A lot of people think Bitcoin is one of the most American assets you could have, but Bitcoin has not been doing very well. And it seems like people are starting to kind of give up a little bit online. What's your take? Is that actually a good sign that you need people to give up to get to the bottom of the bear market? Well, first of all, I think give up is an understatement. uh i i it's very hard to find people jumping into it so if you kind of took a poll of a hundred

people that have never been in bitcoin a hundred of them will say i have no interest if you've had people that have been involved at this point i would say at least 60 to 70 percent are questioning any involvement they've had and so you've got kind of hardcore people that are still in there I'll just, I'll give you, you know, my take in terms of this. This has been a bad year for Bitcoin with a lot of headwinds, starting with software, which we talked about a lot at the beginning of the year and how it got lumped in with everything that was built on code. Once the software stuff kind of bottomed, you got into the, what you said, which is

complete agreement. A country like Korea, which was part of the energy for Bitcoin, moved everything into basically memory. And we've seen massive leverage and margin debt and everything else. So Bitcoin, which was always kind of the place you'd go to if you wanted to trade beta relative to tech, well, that ended and everyone now has beta in tech where you can get 10 baggers in the span of a year. But then one other part that I don't think people fully embraced as the last leg, and I talked about it briefly last week with this whole debasement unwind, where it got lumped in with gold and silver. The rationale behind that, which is starting to become more interesting to me, and I'm seeing some technical signs finally with divergences, which I'll finish

this off with. But I think the debasement trade unwind, there is a direct relationship here between something we talked about a lot and something I was concerned about for really the last five, six weeks. But then last week talked about that I'm not as concerned about anymore was this inflation uptick, particularly in core PCE, core CPI with energy going higher. Well, obviously, energy prices have collapsed. We've seen fertilizer. So you're going to get negative cpi print most likely for the june number already for july we have a negative number but i still hear a lot of people going out to macro clients talking about poor core pce still being elevated then you get warshan the second that we went from the fed effective rate which is about

3.6 we crossed over that for the december rate um of end of the year meaning they had rate hikes built in, that was when Bitcoin had the last leg lower. I think we've hit the peak of that. I really do. This is where the debate's going to come in. I am much more negative, in my opinion, on the jobs market getting better. And I think that is the difference. I listened to Darius Dale, who you've had on recently and who's a friend of the show and someone I respect. But I respect knowing what he's saying because I know his clients are responding to it because he's had such a good call on things. And I just listened to him post something yesterday where he talked about wage inflation. And I think that's where he and I disagree right now. I don't see the labor

market as improving other than the fact that we've had more jobs. Some of this is related to the World Cup. But on the parts related to AI, there is no bounce whatsoever. The business side, the insurance, all of that stuff. And I think people are underestimating the next part of AI, which is the application layer. The infrastructure side is going to slow down. So I'm just going to tell people, technically, we've got some nice divergences. Finally, we've made new lows in Bitcoin, not just from the lows from a couple of weeks ago, but also the lows from back in February. And they'd held in there. We've seen a lot of selling in the Bitcoin ETFs. So I'm more interested in paying attention now. Like I've said, until it gets above the 200 day, I don't think it's worthwhile for

people to play on the other side. But I do think the narrative is old. And now I've been able to find something where if the wage side doesn't improve, meaning if we don't get a big change and we get some, I think any weakness now that starts to show up from AI agents, I think is going to be a positive for Bitcoin. Now, when we watch Bitcoin selling off like this, it's coming at the exact same time that the mag seven have suffered to start the year. And then on top of that we're now getting lots of debate in some of the AI names that people have been wondering, you know, how sustainable is it? Can this actually drive the returns or the ROI? Do you start to see, even though there's divergence, maybe from some of the things

that used to be correlated, are there new correlations that are starting to build or that you're watching where you're saying, look, maybe actually some of these assets are just rotating around in people's portfolio and they're looking at Bitcoin and maybe some certain AI stocks or something as proxies for each other now? Well, this is where the story gets very good for Bitcoin. So about four weeks ago, I talked and I started doing videos on the AI mid-cycle slowdown. I don't think people really listened to me. I don't think they really cared. But these names have been hit pretty hard and they're going through a slowdown. The reason they're going through a slowdown, these headwinds are never going away. So let me rephrase that. These headwinds are never going away. So I think people have to adjust their expectations.

And this goes for Korea. This goes for Micron. This goes for everything. We talked about Micron having blowout numbers last week. Stock is down a decent amount since that report. That was the high. When you sell off on great news, that is not a good sign. And you have to dig a little deep.

The reason these headwinds were at a point is the headwinds are real. The government shut down one of the models. The Korean models are catching up. We're at a stage where the governments are getting more involved. This is a headwind that people have to understand. If governments are getting more involved with companies, Sam Altman proposed a 5% stake to the White House. I think we're getting back into what Bitcoin was meant to represent, which is when the

government gets too involved in the capital markets in the fiat system in the ability to make money in these things which is what happens when you shut down the models when you slow down on the data center side we are absolutely having problems getting data centers in this is again about politics you've got a lot of people spending a lot of money in these elections on the social democrat side they are doing everything they can on the republican side and on the tech side they're doing everything they can we are at a point now where i think people have to realize that AI is a disruptive force and the models from here only get better. So what I was talking about in the first quarter, we're not going to see that easy trade again.

It's not coming. And so the benefits are going to be to the companies that are able to use the agentic side and get their margins up. And we're starting to see healthcare stocks and financial stocks start to outperform the market. And that's why we're seeing this rotation because tech has been the big winner. The infrastructure has been the big winner. I still think over the next five years, you're going to get great returns in these things because to build that is going to happen. It's just not going to be as easy. And I think that's good for Bitcoin. What do you think was happening behind the scenes for Sam Altman and OpenAI to be floating 5% stake in the government or for the government? It feels like that's not out of the blue. And so is that like the U.S.

government actually wanting to have the quote unquote people, the citizens participate in the AI boom? Is that a U.S.-China competition thing? Is this a regulatory capture approach from somebody like an open AI? What's driving that? Honestly, I think you've got Dario and Anthropic on one side, and they've made their point very clear that their dealings with the government have not been good. They're not donors to it. They're involved with some of the opposing forces in terms of the politics. Greg Brockman has donated a lot of money to the Trump campaign and to everything on the Republican side from what I've read. So you've got these kind of two diverging forces. Here's the thing I'll say about all this for everyone. Again, these headwinds are

real. OpenAI obviously came under some pressure for the spending. We saw Meta announce that they're going to become a compute company after spending billions of dollars on people. And the silliest thing I may have ever heard in terms of a way a company just pivots left and right, meta, we're not meta, we're going to spend tons of money on this. Now we're going to become a data center compute because SpaceX did it. I think all of these things show the same thing. The headwinds are coming and whether they're from politics that are getting involved and you're trying to have an edge on this because it is important, or on the other side, your investors are getting involved and saying you're spending too much money i just think people have to recognize we are at the very

early innings of the ai build that we are at the very early innings of the benefits we're going to see from ai but we are past the anything goes period which was probably for only about six months i know it feels longer but eight months ago people thought it was absolutely a bubble and these were hallucinations now we know the models are too good and so you've reached a point where i think the government has to be involved and the model companies are getting uh i i think they're starting to realize they have to work with the government or be in trouble so we obviously saw them with mythos and fable the chinese open source models have really started to drive drive adoption you can go look online and people are talking about hey we stopped using some

centralized american model for this open source model it significantly decreased our cost and we're not worried about security or safety because we're just self-hosting the models ourselves now another aspect of this is with the open source models well what is the model telling you and is it you know telling socialist ideas or communist type ideas to your users or how exactly was it trained what was the source material all of that stuff i think people are trying to figure out and don't yet quite know but there is a very small yet maybe exciting aspect of american open source models so nvidia started to play here there's a couple of other players do you give any importance or credence to american open source or is this pretty much american closed source versus global

open source now american open source is going to be there i mean i i think i think nvidia's model i believe it's nematron is already high enough on the scale for it to be useful but also remember any of the frontier model companies could release one of their older models tomorrow and it would be good um i think this is uh i think people are getting a little bit too dramatic on things like the token index i think they're probably getting a little too dramatic on how much the open source is going to win the main story is going to be that along this path companies are going to have to figure out a way to keep their costs down there there's no way around it it's just too expensive to use the most expensive models but this was always going to happen

we're it's just another recognition that six months ago there was not much adoption i listened to alex kantrowicz interview greg brockman and i thought it was a great interview i really highly recommend people listen to it greg is very smart but he talked about uh enterprise adoption where it was six months ago and six months ago it was just get me anything i need to catch up well that's why we vote they've overspent and now what their business is is find me ways to turn it into roic like if i'm going to invest this money in in getting open ai you got to find some way to make this make me money so i can get some profit margins and he said this is accelerating and their business is exploding on this front.

The reason I bring that up is the token usage is going to just continue to grow. He talked about the fact, and this is what makes the meta comment so ridiculous. And for people that follow these things and get involved, I mean, it is honestly insane. I spend my life listening to this stuff. There is not enough compute.

So if these guys say they have excess compute when they've done tons of major deals this year to secure more capacity, this honestly is just a way for them to get some cash flow in the door and make the investors think that they could always do this to put some floor on the stock.

There's no doubt in my mind, but that doesn't mean they should see multiple expansions. So I think the model situation with the open source, U.S. will have open source models. The risk is that foreign countries who've been shut off from Fable

and been shut off from others, will they move to Chinese models, which are way better than the U.S. models at this point. So there's a gap in time and there's a gap in capabilities right now. If you were Mark Zuckerberg, what would you do? Would you continue to invest CapEx for your own internal consumption in the compute needs? Would you move to more of like this, like Neo cloud type approach? Would you split and use some internal and rent some for the cash flow? How would you play it? so i i don't even and anyone i think who who gives suggestions on this

they have a lot to lose so you know i think if you want to use something why don't why doesn't mark zuckerberg go put 20 of his money into bitcoin because he has no need to he has more money than he'll ever need so he doesn't need to try to make money the reason i bring that up in this story is with AI and with AGI sitting right around the corner, I don't know the right answer for any of these companies. So I understand why they're flailing all over the place. I mean, Microsoft is flailing. Oracle had a big rally. It dumped all the way back to Lowe's again. We're in a point where the uncertainty going forward is extreme. And I think that is the part that we've recognized is that with all of these headwinds, the same uncertainty we saw in

the first part of the year where software companies got hit, we're now seeing it with the infrastructure names because people are questioning whether the build-out will happen. We'll go on. And I think with meta, it's just there's no answer to the question that you gave. And I think the investors are like, we don't know. And whatever Mark says, he says one thing, we're going to go out and spend billions of dollars on talent to play catch-up. Well, that clearly didn't work. Maybe they have something behind the scenes. But I think when they do things like the data center sign, it's a bad sign to me that you're just kind of throwing stuff against the wall. The one thing we've learned with AI, and we certainly learned it

with OpenAI, if you make any kind of a breakthrough, you do have the chance to catch up. So there's a lot more talk, and I say this every week that we get on here, I use Codex more than Claude at this point. I absolutely do. And the reason is because I'm not throttled as much. So I talk to a lot of people, that's not the same case, but the more that enterprises are using it, they don't have as much compute, and I think that's where OpenAI has made the catch up is they overspend already. Anthropic's trying to play catch up, but OpenAI has enough compute right now. Mark doesn't have anything ready right now.

He doesn't, there's no models and the data centers aren't finished yet. So. All right, folks, I'm going to take a little break from this episode right here to tell you something about figure markets. Now I think figure is super interesting. I've been an investor in this business for a very long time from the private market to now they've gone public, built a very cool business. And I think what's most interesting here is they have two sides to a marketplace. If you've got Bitcoin and you want liquidity, but you don't want to sell the Bitcoin, you want to keep the upside and just take a loan out against it. Figure now offers these crypto backed loans. They charge about eight point nine one percent interest. That's nine point nine percent

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percent APY. You should also go check out Figure. They've been a great partner to me. I'm a very happy investor in the business. Go check them out at figuremarkets.co.pump or click on the link in the description. And that's figuremarkets.co.pump. We've seen a lot of technological breakthroughs recently. Some of it's on the power generation side. We just saw a nuclear company partner in some form or fashion with NVIDIA etched just kind of came out of stealth and they've got a whole bunch of innovation around what they're building. How much of that innovation is going to hit the market in the next 12, 24 months? And we'll have a material impact here versus it took NVIDIA 30 plus years to really become a household name and drive, you know, the value that they ultimately

were able to. Is this around the new tech, especially the hardware and chips? Is this stuff short-term or do you look at it much more long-term it's long-term um there's no way to solve the compute problem from i mean i can talk to a gazillion people and listen to as many podcasts and i try to cherry pick the ones with smart people the all-in podcast with gavin baker this past weekend was great there's just we're short compute i don't care who you talk to there's no solution to that problem because right now to say that we don't have enough compute, we don't know what the demand is. And again, I try to use these numbers, but this is the reality. I keep hearing from everyone that demand is insatiable on the amount of demand that we have. So the only

way I could say it is if you have one McDonald's restaurant and it says a billion served, okay, great. Over how many years did that take to get to a billion served? If there was a line of a billion people outside of any McDonald's right now, how long would it take them to go through? You can't just snap your finger with this stuff and get it. So everyone can come up with, oh, there'll be more efficiencies. Oh, we can't be in the third inning. Oh, blah, blah. Unless everyone I'm listening to is completely wrong. We are so early in the stage. In fact, Brockman said right now, 10 million users are using agentic systems, 10 million. We have billions of people that will be using agentic systems. Billions. We are barely in this no

matter what. So everyone just needs to woe down because once it gets easy, I mean, this is the reason why you can't have Siri on your phone, do everything that you need. At some point, you will get that. We are still ways away. So all these energy solutions, they're just making sure that we don't stop progress, but they're not going to make us be able to satisfy everyone's demand needs if you look in your crystal ball this mid-cycle slowdown how bad is it how long does it last how does maybe the rest of this year play out in your eyes i think we've done you know i i last week on the video i just showed that there were three different types of consolidations and that's what we're in we're in a consolidation of a bull market with inside the ai thematic

trade um they can be short and sharp meaning they could have a a scary 20 30 correction in the names in like a day or two during really strong bull markets where the market earnings are going up so much that's less likely they could have a very tight quiet consolidation well when when something like micron goes from 60 to 1200 in the span of 15 months that's also not likely for it to stay around 1200 for the next three months and allow everyone to kind of stay in their trade and then just ride it higher i think the the third one that i highlighted is the one we're in i'm going to go through it again this week and that's where you have more volatility where you just kind of go up and down in a much wider range so let's take micron as just an example here

the 50-day moving average as of today is somewhere around 840. um it made a high of above 1200. so so let's just say 1240 to 840, I mean, that's a big range. We're talking somewhere around 50% of the price from where it was at 840. I think we'll eventually get to the 50-day moving average on most of these names. It'll either happen through a combination of falling and then bouncing back or by time continuing to go forward to, let's say, the next earnings period in July, and then gradually go higher. The one thing I feel very strongly about is that the earnings for these companies are still going to be great. That's the underlying cushion that they have. That's why I feel very strongly to say this is about multiple compression. This is about making

sure people are not able to ride a trend for free. There has to be some volatility to shake people out. And so that's the way I think it'll play out for the next three months. But I think by the time we get in the fourth quarter of this year, these stocks will be making new all time highs for sure. Now, we've seen the S&P in the first half of the year up 10 percent, NASDAQ up 20 percent. And what's your take? We just continue to go up and to the right throughout the rest of the year, and AI is a big driver of that? Or will we get more divergence and maybe some of these indexes actually will perform as

well, even if the AI stocks do? Yeah, I'm kind of torn between this. I think it really comes down to the hyperscalers. They've been the biggest drag on the market. The S&P finished the first half of the year up about 7.5%, 8%, I believe. No, I think it was closer to 10%. actually, by the time we got those two big days in, I think the week before it was around seven and a half. But then we've had a pullback so far this week. We've underperformed Korea. We've

underperformed Japan. We had even just barely performed with Europe. I'm going to guess that because I expect a broadening out, we're already starting to see it in the health care stocks and the insurance stocks and the bank stocks. I think that's what's going to happen is I think you're going to see a broadening out into other places. The hyperscalers will probably be able to hang in the lows here, even though I just don't see them having much upside. And as long as that's the case, I would expect another 10% by the end of the year in the S&P. I don't see anything on the horizon other than these headwinds becoming very political. I do think the midterms are probably going to be a negative for AI in general, particularly after the recent elections

where Mamdani candidates were doing so well. I think there's an anti-AI situation. I don't think it's going to matter. And I think once we get to that period, we should see inflation have come down. And if that's the case, then we don't have to worry about the Fed. And if we don't have to worry about the Fed

and we start to see the dollar at least be on the weaker side again, I think we can be in a better position for all assets for the final two months of the year. What are you looking for in the second half of the year? Are there specific milestones that you're either excited about or worried about? Well, it's really, it still comes down to the earnings. I mean, the Wall Street Journal had a good article just highlighting how unique the first

quarter was. So people have lowered, let's say, their belief in earnings. And that's because there's been two factors that have juiced earnings, which will continue to juice them on one side for at least this year. but then the other one will run out after the second quarter so just so we go through them the first one is the reality that you get to spread your expenses for the hyperscalers over the course of the next five years so the money you're spending you only have to hit against your earnings a little bit over the next five years gives you time to get your roic but for the

The NVIDIAs and the people receiving the money, you get obviously a huge boost because their revenues jump up and that comes in. So there's a little bit of an accounting mismatch on this, which in my mind, because I believe that the profit margins will remain robust and will get better. But slowly, you'll get the ROIC. It'll keep earnings at a higher level, but the margins probably won't expand as much as we saw there. The second thing is that a lot of these companies, because they were owners in Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, and they have to take mark-to-markets on them, well, they get a big boost in their earnings. It's not in their operating earnings, but it's definitely in their earnings. That'll run out, too. I don't think those companies, now that they've all been marked higher, are going to go that much.

But you could see Anthropic, when it goes public, it could trade $3 trillion. There's no reason why it can't, even if it didn't stay up there after what we saw with SpaceX. So regardless, I think that means that the benefit or what I'm looking for milestones is that we actually see a broadening out. If you go read what Travelers said in their earnings report and you go through it, it's an insurance company. It's boring. It doesn't really matter. They're really starting to talk about AI in a bigger way. I've talked about Eli Lilly on this.

Those are two healthcare example or two companies just in general, one on the insurance side, one on the healthcare side. I think people need to start realizing that the benefits from AI really come with the agentic side, and we only had the realization of the AI agent side in the first three months of this year, the first six months. As Greg Brockman said, he's seeing massive adoption, and now OpenAI is getting heavily involved in showing them how they can have real impact. He said the second half of the year is going to be a big game changer in terms of the AI agents and particularly looking a year backwards. I think people need to start to build that into their estimations. And I think that's what's going to happen. So I think there's a bit underneath the market and there's no AI bubble. It's the productivity boom that's going to start to show up.

What I find really interesting is take Claude Artifacts, you know, as an example or something like that, where people are now starting to take these agents and put them into their company workflows. There's a lot of debate as to are you actually giving the information to the models and they're just going to go compete with you at the same time. I think there's a lot of people saying, hey, this is going to make us more productive. And so how do you just see this like a genetic component? If you were running a company, you had, you know, a thousand employees and your employees were saying, hey, this is going to make me more effective.

You were seeing the revenue growth. What would your evaluation be as to whether you let the major LLMs into, you know, the kind of henhouse, right? Do you do it or do you worry about it? How do you look at that? I mean, I think they've gone through this in a way that aside from the risks that come from the cloud as not being as safe, they'll be using, I mean, they'll be using, for example, AWS. And AWS will have their own security around it. And that's one of the reasons why when people go, well, Amazon told on Meeta. Well, no, they want to make sure their job is security.

If a company like Coca-Cola or Eli Lilly or whatever is using their cloud and they believe that mythos is something that is an issue, they want to make sure that everything is tied up. One of the key things that came out in the insurance side was how mythos is actually a big positive. And I hadn't thought about this. We hear about the vulnerabilities. But if companies like Travelers, which sells insurance, and part of the thing they want to check is, do you have risk inside your company? Well, now they can have Mythos go check everything. So it's not just, is the company paying for it? The insurance companies and the consultant side, the Marsh McClellans, all of that stuff, they can now get involved with, well, how do you deal with this from a policy perspective?

I just don't think people have fully thought. And the reason is because it moves so fast. It was a year ago that people were still bothering me about hallucinations. You barely hear hallucinations now because we're talking about the models with 140 plus IQ. So I just think as we go through this, companies will feel more secure because they are going to have the Amazons and everything as a defense. That being said, the amount of times being mentioned about cyber risk for smaller businesses, I do think there's going to be a market shock within the next year where we might come in in a day and the market could be down 10% globally because there was a hacking into a major bank or a major place. and whether it was IP that was stolen or whether it was private information

that's going to be released. I just think we're going to have that and people are just going to have to deal with it. But I think those types of things continue to make it where if you're running a portfolio where you can't handle volatility, I wouldn't have too much money in the market

because I think it is going to be volatile. I think you're going to get paid over time. But I do think that there's going to be a lot of shockwaves and that the easy part of AI is over and the model capabilities have just gotten too good. There's been a lot of talk of, for many of these cybersecurity reasons,

it's actually the U.S. government coming in, regulating, approving not only the models getting released, but who they get released to, who the customers are. You know, there's many levels to the regulation. At the same time, somebody like a Bill Gurley, many others are saying, wait a second, this means that China or, you know, whatever model, whether it's open source or another geography,

they're going to get this massive advantage because we're essentially shooting ourselves in the foot which side are you on on the debate i i there's no way that the chinese open source models aren't going to um hurt it it has to um i i i've kind of thought about this from the way that i think about everything over the next five years so humanoids are coming and part of the reason that that gets brought up in the conversation is you can't have humanoids without having super intelligence well we're going to have super intelligence in five years and we're going to have humanoids in five years and that combination is going to change the the equation again so as much as i want to believe that open

source is going to hurt or help i i just kind of look at it as the total revenues of the s p 500 a fairly high percentage of them come from overseas. I forget what the number is now, but let's assume it's 40%. It's somewhere around there. That's a lot of revenues, meaning the U.S. is selling into all of these countries, and almost everything that we're selling is services and software and things along those lines. Now, the hyperscalers have a huge part of it. So do I think open source and LLMs are going to be critical towards maybe keeping that?

i i don't see any of the other countries as being in a position where they can honestly use the chinese open source models in the way that they want they're going to need the us for something and if we learned a lesson last year everyone's interconnected already to say that okay you have our open source we're shutting it down the only two countries in the world that seem to be at a stalemate of how to deal with things is china in the u.s the u.s was throwing tariffs on this, threatening invasions, all kinds of stuff. And we ended up just kind of getting through the tariffs. And then the Supreme Court said, no, there are no tariffs. So I think this is going to be a very similar thing. I really do, because I don't believe that there's a time

where AI gets so good that everything just ends. I'm going to continue to lean that the frontier models are being built to solve the world's greatest challenges, that that is basically the Manhattan Project for every single great problem you want. If you go listen to that Greg Brockman interview and you fast forward all the way to the final 10 minutes, he starts talking about cancer. He starts talking about people being able to solve this and what has already happened. And he said, this will be the standard. So if you haven't listened to me or don't believe me in terms of like the ability to have, to not die from disease, he doesn't do it from the Dario way. He does it from the it's already happening way. And so I don't think open source should be

the place that people debate. I think for Bill Gurley, he's a VC guy. I think you're going to start to see capitalists and the capitalist system. And this is the reason why I got involved in Bitcoin in the first place. I think you're going to see major people start to question what AI means for the capitalist system and for their money. I really do believe it. And this is the reason why I continue to focus my attention on the outside the system. So to sum it up, if Bill Gurley and people like Bill Gurley are saying, China, open source will always win.

I kind of agree with it, but not in the way that that means China wins. It means that small businesses win, that entrepreneurs win, and that the places that have the most money don't win. And that's kind of the way that I see it happening is that there's a distribution of economics that happens. And that's the reason why I think people are going to look for a place to be outside the system and protect their net worth.

And I don't think it's the government taxes. I think it's AI. You were banging the drum on micron memory, et cetera, back, you know, sub $100 micron stock. Now it seems like everyone is talking about this. There's everything from inference to, you know, podcast and um we recently saw the president tweet about mike ron uh we have seen um gavin baker you know kind of beat the drum as well you wrote a paper this week on the importance of memory and

kind of this belief that even though everyone knows this is important and it's a bottleneck it is not going to be solved seems to be the consensus can you just elaborate on that yeah i i just wanted to make sure people realize that um memory is the most important thing and i I used a book that I don't think we've talked about. And I don't mention too many books because I don't I don't read really. You read a book. You read a book. I've read I've read a decent amount of books in my in my lifetime, but not not recently.

But Moonwalking with Einstein is a fantastic book. And I wanted to bring it up because I was always I get fascinated by little nuggets. But knowing that Greek philosophers were able to memorize speeches that would take four hours. no teleprompter, and they could do the whole speech. And they did it through this, well, I'll use the technique, the way it's called in Moonwalking with Imstime, which is the memory palace, which is somewhat similar to the way we all remember songs that we haven't heard since we were 10. And then all of a sudden it comes on the radio and we know every single word, but you and I could ask each other what we spoke about on this. We'll have no idea tomorrow.

So how does a song stay in your brain? And memory is critical for the IQ to continue to go up. Like you have to have more memory because at some point you're going back and forth, you're connecting dots. And the only way your IQ is going to go up is the ability to retrieve things quickly and go through this. So I wanted to, number one, write a paper that just highlighted to people that watching the way Micron and SK Hynix and Samsung trade is very, very important to what's happening

in AI. it's going to be a shortage for a long long time we're just tipping the scales number two i wanted to make sure that as people go through this they realize we are entering the age where this iq and this memory is getting us to a point where magic is going to start happening and that was the point of kind of connecting it back to moonwalking with einstein so i just think that for people that are trying to understand ai and understand what's going on and realize that memory is not a bubble. Memory is an insatiable need and eventually we'll get more efficiencies in algorithms. We'll eventually build more memory. My point is, I think from this point on,

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Now, given that it is July 4th, it's the 250th birthday of the country, I think people are very excited and there's a lot of patriotism. But also there's another side of this, which is like the future of AI is going to have a material impact on financial markets, on people's individual portfolios, and on what the economy and society looks like over the next 10 to 20 years.

We talk a lot about the software side, and I think rightfully so. But you mentioned earlier kind of the physical AI, the robotic side. And I think that that is probably going to be one of the areas where the average American first starts to see this stuff. What do you envision over the next 10 or 20 years? Is this like a technological utopia where we're all in self-driving cars and humanoids are walking our dogs and every factory is completely automated? Or is there some messy middle between that vision and where we are today that you think is much more likely? And then what the ramifications are for investors as they're trying to navigate what are the next trends that maybe aren't as popular today but will become popular over the next 10 years? No, this is going

explode over the next five years and anyone that doesn't believe that is um is in the same hole they were with ai hallucinations um so let's just first put it into terms with the chinese what do people think is a bigger risk right now the chinese models are only six months behind our models and yes most of this is through copying them through distillation and then doing some changes but the reality is their models are as good their robotic situation is far far far advanced over us now not necessarily the capabilities but the production numbers the ability for society to embrace them and want them and use them china just in the last couple months announced that and i forget which company is they have 140 different humanoid robotics

companies there. And they're now releasing one for less than $5,000. So again, how are we going to win a war if the Chinese are embracing robotics and humanoids and we're not? So for anyone out there that doesn't believe this also won't be a military situation, believe Elon Musk when he says there will be millions of them, certainly within the next decade. But the concept of them building themselves is already happening. And that doesn't mean, again, them going out and putting the parts together. It means them doing what humans do right now to create them. And that's already being done in Tesla and other shops that are going through this. So the scaling out of humanoids is going to happen. But I want to bring this back to it's already happening in society.

We already have a car that has done flying car that's done trips from the west side of Manhattan to JFK. That's already happening. There's drones already working in Florida going in front of the police to go to situations. We're going to have ambulances. Like all of these things, the first place it's going to happen is in places where people won't fight it because it's an emergency situation. For crime, where someone's getting hurt. For an ambulance, where someone's getting hurt. Full self-driving will happen. The humanides inside our home will take a lot longer to go because those have to be perfect to go through but again this gets back into being able to solve something on a computer textually is nothing compared to the compute necessary for

humanoid to be making good decisions for anyone who's been in one of the older teslas which i have and has used the full self-driving i would never let my hands off it for very long in maine these roads are not on the map perfectly every those things they're the bikes are all over the place I just wouldn't do it. And the newer models, I'm sure it's much, much better. And as I get another car and I get the new models, I'll go through it. But I think for people not to realize that this is coming, it's going to be a big part of our lives. And it's why they should never fade the hardware situation.

The hardware buildout, the parts is the place to be. Memory is part of that. The infrastructure part is part of it. This is going to be a $90 trillion buildout. And I think you want to be focused on a bull market in stocks because that build out is going to have the money that's going to be spent to do those things. One of the aspects that has really, I think, gotten for been forgotten in the AI conversation is the impact of the Fed. And we've been doing all of this with, you know, somewhat elevated interest rates. And so if Warsh does come in and start cutting rates and driving all kinds of money into the market, that should provide cheaper capital to these companies to then go and use that to build out some of this stuff.

like there's a flywheel there the question just is like what would the inflationary aspect be you know what would the pain or the trade-off oil prices have come down what's just your general sense right now on like wars inflation and then the ability for macroeconomics to help or hurt these ai companies well first of all i think people completely overreacted last week to to warsh's first statement um and and i'll i'll just say i i like looking at the movements and things and i think the way the media and especially people in the macro world talked about it like oh it was hawkish you just didn't get a big enough move in anything to say anything happened there wasn't like some massive move where it was a reset where he said this is going to

happen in fact he said i want less guidance from the fed i don't want to be coming out there and trying to stop volatility i think it's important for us to get back to monetary policy being the way that we're moving things because that is the only way that we're going to be able to get a change in what's happened so i think one of the messages that he said is that he would love to reduce the balance sheet now i personally don't see how that's going to be possible and he did admit in an interview this week on a panel where he said it took us 18 years to get into this balance sheet we're not going to get out of it in 18 weeks with the implication being that this is going to be a slow moving thing and he said we are not going to shock the market we

will give them plenty of time to know that this is going to happen but at the same point he wants rates to be lower and the reason he wants rates to be lower is because he knows that they have an impact on housing they have an impact on people that maybe don't own assets and still need to to borrow money. And so all of these things fit into a Fed that probably will be much different than the past. And I think the market has to adjust to it. But the most important thing that he said both last week and also this week, which I want people to understand, I very seldom meet any macro person, any macro person who understands artificial intelligence. And when I say understand it, I mean uses it every day for hours a day. And the reason that's important, if I say this

a hundred times, I'll end up saying it a million times in my lifetime. For every hundred times I say it in a day, if you're not using the model, if you're not understanding how powerful it is, how can you possibly understand the impact it's going to have on productivity? It is productivity that is the most important change that is going to go on. And it has already started and it's showing up. And I don't even think GDP is properly measured. So we're at a point where what Kevin Moore says is, I don't know what AI is going to do.

But in this weekly, this interview, which anyone can get the transcript from YouTube, and I'll go through it this weekend, he literally said, we are at the beginning of an exponential change in AI. He's admitting, I don't know what that means in productivity, But I do know that the history of Greenspan, when one of these technologies come, is not to overreact to the inflation data today. That is the message that I heard.

Now, that does not just go with oil. And I think this is the mistake people are making. He's also talking about core inflation. If he believes that AI is going to take down core inflation, he talks about the job market. And he talks about it in a way that it may hurt jobs today, which I agree with, more than it will in a couple years because the displacement takes time. People lose their job, and then you've got to go find another job to get hired. But if you're fired as an accountant and all the accounting jobs are leaving, what do you go become? You can't become an electrician quickly.

Could you do it in a year? Yeah. Could you become a nurse in a year? So there's a time factor. And I think what he was saying is he expects the labor market to remain on the weaker side. He expects the inflation data to lag what will actually happen because of AI. And I think that's what people have to read the part on is what is his view on AI and productivity. and then finally he wants these task forces to go question the way inflation is measured and he's someone that has talked about median inflation core inflation is going higher but median inflation has not gone up and the reason is there's a lot of stuff happening in ai like memory that is having kind of a one-time impact that will eventually come back down and will the

insurance companies if they're starting to benefit will the health care companies if they're starting to benefit specifically on the insurance side, be able to lower the cost of insurance, which we all know has gone up exponentially. I just think there's a lot of changes coming and he wants to be more forward-looking and not sit there and take every tick as being the way to do it, everything. So I'm going to say that the Fed is going to remain on hold despite everyone building all this stuff in. And I actually have liked reading what Warsh has said. I think he's going to be much necessary person in an age of AI. One of the things I've been thinking a lot about is we talk a lot about individual companies, et cetera, but the NASDAQ, let's just look at numbers over the

last couple of time periods. So year to date, it's up about 16%. As of today, over the last five years, it's up somewhere in the ballpark of about 100% or so. If you look at last month, it's down about 5%. And so you can go and kind of pick these different timeframes. But if I said to someone, hey, you can deliver 15, 20% return every year, year after year, why do I go invest in a private venture capital fund who may or may not put up that money, those types of returns, I got to lock my capital up and be a liquid. Why go pick individual names if I can deliver returns that are going to beat most hedge funds, for example. How are you thinking about index exposures versus actually going and buying individual names, or how do you think maybe people who are watching

or listening to this should think about it? Well, again, one of the themes that I've tried to help with my subscribers on has been the situation that all these, including the NASDAQ, it's a modified cap weight. So it's not 100% cap weight. They do have limitations. But I do think NVIDIA is still a very large portion of it at this point. So it's been pulled back by NVIDIA, but it has a lot of names that have benefited from AI. So on the S&P 500, again, as of today, you're probably up about eight, a little bit percent, maybe a little bit less, eight and change is my guess, which is a little surprising given the fact that earnings are up as much as they are. But I think in the case of the S&P, it is a cap weighted index and

you suffer with cap weightings and the fact that you're heavily weighted towards the winners of prior 15 years and you're underweight the losers well if the semiconductors are winning and they were not the winners and the hyperscalers are losing then you're suffering in that side i still believe stocks are going to outperform bonds for at least the next couple years until agi starts to become a little bit more scary i still believe that commodities are going to be a big necessary including silver and i still believe that bitcoin is going to be the best performer out of all of them, once we get to the point that the negatives of AI start to become apparent. And I think they're becoming apparent right now. If the best you can get from the S&P 500 is just

to guess, or Q's, is 15% a year, well, that's the world that Bitcoin thrives in. If you can get 100% to 1,000%, which is the world we've been living in for retail, which is the energy of Bitcoin, well, then Bitcoin's going to suffer. I think that world's going away. And more importantly, for people that are invested in private credit, in private debt, which wealthy people are in real estate, I think gradually over time, especially when the S&P starts to run into some bigger resistance, the volatility now is in the equity market. I've shown this repeatedly.

Remember when Bitcoin was such an extreme volatile position? Well, now when Bitcoin has a big down day, it's down one and a half percent. So it's moving on a 30 vol, not even a 30 vol using that. I'm telling you right now, the tech momentum index, the last 60 days is an 85 vol. That's higher than any time over the last 25 years, including the dot-com bubble. Now, a momentum index like that is long short. So that has the winners of tech over the losers of tech. Well, that's the way most hedge funds run their book.

When you have an 80 volatility, that prevents you from having much of a position in that because you'd be hitting your drawdown limits very quickly if you had that trade on. This is what's happening in the equity market, and this is not something that people should minimize. In fact, I've shown that over the last year, it's been a megaphone, meaning we're making higher and higher and higher volatility bands as we move forward, and that's going to make it more difficult for people to be long stocks. The Sharpe ratios are going down, and as we go forward, I'm going to say it again, the AI mid-cycle slowdown is basically the peak in the easy money of AI. And so if the money starts filtering back towards the other direction, I've laid out a

pretty bullish case for Bitcoin. If you haven't got it, if we're overestimating the inflation side and productivity is coming, if we're overestimating the hawkishness of the Fed from what Warsh said, and at the same time, the AI trade is not going to lose its earnings growth. It's just going to make it more difficult for institutions to stay long at the way they have in the past. Then all of a sudden, the lower volatility of Bitcoin will probably lead in. And if we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that I just said, which is up north of 70 at this point, I do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of AI. We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will.

I love it. That's a great place for us to end. Anyone who has not yet, please go and subscribe to Jordy's YouTube channel. He does a fantastic job there. And also go check out 22V. uh he writes a bunch of research um that i uh i read every single time he publishes so uh go check it out and jordy i hope you enjoy a great fourth of july in maine and uh we'll do this again next weekend same to you bud i'll see you next week same to you matt