The Pomp Podcast - How to Prepare for the Next Bitcoin Bull Market | Anthony & John Pompliano

Episode Date: October 7, 2025

Anthony and John Pompliano discuss why bitcoin is going higher, why Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor-Jones are so bullish, how to enjoy the bull market while preparing for a storm, why the government will never stop printing money, and why asset prices are going higher. ======================Check out my NEW show for daily bite-sized breakdowns of the biggest stories in finance, technology, and politics: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://pompdesk.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠======================Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Created by Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, Polkadot empowers users to build decentralized applications with ease. Backed by industry leaders, making it a preferred choice for big names, Polkadot stands out as a leading choice for investors seeking a reliable, future-proof solution in the growing world of Web3 technology. Learn more at https://polkadot.com/.======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $500 in rewards.======================Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 0:54 - Bitcoin reaches all-time high! 4:43 - Will bitcoin be bigger than gold? 6:36 - Wall Street is now waking up to bitcoin 11:38 - BlackRock is now a bitcoin company 14:55 - How should investors be thinking about allocation 21:07 - How to protect from downside volatility & Q4 outlook 26:42 - Why September had best performance in 15 years 32:51 - Can you sleep through the storm?

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Find your rhythm across a seamless 33-inch display and an immersive 19-speaker AKG surround audio system. This city demands agility, and Optic delivers with precision to make every drive extraordinary. Let's take the Cadillac. Find out more at cadillaccanada.ca. Luxury sales claim based on S&P Global Mobility Canadian New Vehicle Total Registrations for calendar year 2025 for the Cadillac definition of luxury. What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you

would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going on, guys. Today, we got a great episode with John Pompliano. In this conversation, we talk about

what's going on with Bitcoin. Why is it going higher? How Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones are so bullish? How you should be able to sleep through a storm and make sure that you're prepared for any sort of market downturn, but still be able to enjoy the bull market and why I think asset prices are going higher and how the government is never, ever, ever going to stop printing money. Here's my latest conversation with John Pompliano. All right, John, what's the first topic? Bitcoin reaches an all-time high. Last week was the largest inflows ever for Bitcoin or for crypto, excuse me, at $6 billion. What's going on? Why is everyone flooding into crypto? Well, the world has woken up. They finally realized what Bitcoiners and

gold bugs have been yelling about for 15 years is governments around the world were given a money printer. When they were given that money printer, they were trusted to be responsible with it. And instead of not violating that trust, they decided to just press the button as much as they possibly could. And as they've printed more money, and they have devalued the fiat currency, the rest of the world at first was like, this is amazing. Stocks are going up, real estate's going up, I'm getting richer. But now people are saying, wait a second here. I actually think that I'm not driving real wealth. So opening bells, Phil Rosen, he came out and he showed the S&P 500 since 2020 is up 100%. Great, fantastic. Congratulations to all the stock

owners. Priced in Bitcoin is down 90%. So what is your reference point? If you're measuring it against dollars, then you think you're a genius. If you're measuring it against a finite asset that cannot be printed and cannot be debased, you're losing horribly. And so it's all about that reference point, that denominator, right? The idea of a Bitcoin is the hurdle rate. And so I think that now you're starting to see the seep all around the world. Now, what I will say is Bitcoin versus gold is also a very interesting story. Gold is up 50% year to date. Congratulations to all the gold hold times, right? Gold bugs. You guys were right, but not so fast. If you go back and you look a year ago, then gold is still up 50% because it pretty much was sideways for like

a decade. So it has had this rapid appreciation. What we know though is gold accelerates before Bitcoin many times. And Bitcoin, if you go back over the last year, it is up 50, or I'm sorry, it's up 100%. So over the year to date, you have gold up 50, Bitcoin only up 35. Okay, gold's winning. Over a year though, you have gold up 50, Bitcoin up 100, Bitcoin winning. If you go back five years, oh boy, gold's up 100%, Bitcoin is up 1000%, 10x what gold has done. So both of them have a place in somebody's portfolio i think but if you're looking for the asymmetry people are going to flow to bitcoin and what i think you're seeing now is the thing that the individuals have been yelling about on the internet debasement inflation currency manipulation uh loss of

purchasing power all that stuff now the institutions are saying wait a second we agree we're going to lend our institutional credibility to this now it's being called the debasement trade right like like they invented this new phrase and no one's ever come up with before no one's ever thought to buy Bitcoin and gold. And Charlie Bilello, creative planning, he came out and he showed that gold and Bitcoin, number one and number two assets, never before has that happened, where gold and Bitcoin have been the two best performing assets globally. And it's because people realize they are never, ever, ever going to stop printing money. And therefore, non-productive assets are outperforming productive assets. So what does that tell

you about the performance of the productive assets. It's all devaluation of the currency. And I think that's why you're going to start to see so much more capital continue to go. I think that this bull market is just warming up, baby. We're on the on-deck circle. Game hasn't even started yet. All right. I'm going to do a little bit of pushback on the gold and Bitcoin. Gold's a bigger asset, right? So if a 10% move in gold does not equal a 10% move in Bitcoin, how do you think about that trade of gold's just a bigger asset? Does Bitcoin eventually catch up to gold? I think that Bitcoin is going to be bigger than gold's market cap, right? Just think about it this way. Name an asset where the analog version is bigger than the digital version.

You can't, right? Because the digital version is always bigger than the analog version. Now, right now, what has happened is gold has been running. Gold is like a $26, $27 trillion market cap. Huge. Congratulations. Bitcoin's 10% of this, $2.5 trillion, give or take, right? or sorry, two and a half trillion. So what you're seeing is the people who have the largest pools of capital, central banks, large financial institutions, governments, et cetera, they are trained. I see the basement, I see inflation, I buy gold. So they're pouring capital in there. But again, Bitcoin's performance has doubled in the last year, gold's performance. So that means that on a relative basis, Bitcoin is seeing more inflows than gold is seeing. And so what you should

expect is that gap is going to close. Right now it's 10 to 1. Eventually, it's going to be 5 to 1. Eventually, it's going to be 1 to 1. Eventually, Bitcoin is going to be bigger than gold. And so how long does that take? I don't know. Is that a five-year thing or is that a 50-year thing? I have no clue. But what I do know is that if you put these two assets side by side, Bitcoin is superior in every single category that you can analyze these two on, except for gold has a couple thousand years of history, Bitcoin has 16 years of history. So from that standpoint, gold is superior in terms of how long it's been around. But in terms of portability, divisibility, scarcity, mobility, all of those things, Bitcoin is superior. And so if an asset is superior, it should over time have

a larger market cap. And I think that's what you're going to see happen with Bitcoin. So Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee just recommended or said that you should maybe have two to 4% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. How much of this Bitcoin price action and gold price action is driven by, Hey, look, institutions are now referencing to their clients. Hey, go ahead and get this asset versus, you know, retail has been on this trade for 10 plus years. You ever heard someone say, uh, I'm going to keep doing something until you cry uncle. That's basically what's happened to wall street is every single major bank CEO. For the most part, we don't like this. It's risky. This is like trading beanie babies, you know, whatever

nonsense thing they were saying right uh there were some that were saying they were gonna fire people they weren't gonna work on it all that kind of stuff some major banks saying that vanguard this is not part of our investment strategy for our clients well the ceo's gone new ceo says we're gonna put this stuff in our right it's because the clients want it the uh i always say the voice of the people will eventually be heard maybe not in the short term but eventually the voice of the people will be heard and guess what the people want bitcoin and so you see the banks now all sudden they're capitulating. You see the vanguards of the world, they're capitulating. You see the Morgan Stanley saying, the financial advisors are pounding on their door saying, my client is

telling me they want access to this asset. When can we get it? Now, it goes into a model portfolio. And part of what was actually interesting about the Morgan Stanley thing is they said, we are going to support our 16,000 financial advisors as they look to service their clients. And they can now add this into the portfolio. And so again, you can say they're crying uncle, You can say they're waving the white flag. You can say they're surrendering. You can say whatever you want. I like to say the positive side.

Welcome to the party, right? Welcome to the greatest asset on Wall Street. Welcome to the greatest show on Wall Street. Thankfully, you now can service your clients. But at the end of the day, like the people's voice is being heard and people are saying, we want the asset. And so what ends up happening is

either you're the Vanguard CEO who says no and you get steamrolled and you're out of a job or you say, I'm gonna give the people what they want. let people do what they want with their money. That is a pure principle that I think should happen in finance. If people want to do something with their money, it's their hard-earned money,

they already got to pay half of it to the government, which is crazy. But whatever's left, the peanuts that are left after they go and they serve Uncle Sam, after that, let them do what they want with their money. If they want to buy private assets,

let them do it. If they want to go and they want to gamble it, I don't do that. I don't think that they should do that, right? I don't think that's a good idea from an investment principle standpoint, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't protect their right to do it. It's the whole idea of free speech, right? Money is speech, especially when it is in digital form. Let them express their speech how they want. Let them do with their money what they want. And so if they want to buy Bitcoin,

let them buy Bitcoin. If they want to go and they want to buy some crazy thing, let them do it. Do your best to educate them, but people should have free will. That's what made this country so amazing is letting people have freedom. And guess what? People are smarter than you think. For every one story of somebody who goes and gambles away all their money, five or 10 people actually got to some level of prosperity because of capitalism, because of market access, because of the ability to allocate their capital. And so, yes, will there be side effects and negative trade-offs? Of course. But guess what? So is there's negative trade-offs by letting humans drive cars. So is by us having food that tastes good. There's all these things in society. It's

okay if there's negative trade-offs, just try to minimize them, but do not take away the freedom of people to do what they want with their money. And I think that's what all these institutions are learning is now, if you don't let them do with their money what they want, they will leave because now you have competition. And there are plenty of people who are willing to let them do what they want with their money. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin IRA. Are you a crypto investor with a retirement account but don't have any crypto in your retirement account listen up this is for you bitcoin ira is revolutionizing the way americans save for retirement by helping smart investors diversify their savings with access to over 75 cryptocurrencies with world-class

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One company that clearly found that out was BlackRock. Their Bitcoin ETF is their most profitable ETF right now. I know you love to say they are the ultimate marketer for Bitcoin. What are your thoughts around their ETF and like, why is it the most popular? Why are investors just pounding the door to get allocation here? Well, Larry Fink is the CMO of Bitcoin. I've been saying that for like two years now. But more importantly now, I'm going to actually take it a step further.

BlackRock is a Bitcoin company. They're the most successful Bitcoin company in the world. And people can get upset about that. They can not like it. But it's true. If your most profitable product is a Bitcoin product, you're a Bitcoin company. Right? Guess what all of their financial advisors,

guess what their distribution partners are all doing? They're going and they're spreading the gospel of Bitcoin. They're telling people, here's how it works. Here's why it's important. Here's why you should have it in your portfolio. BlackRock may be doing more for Bitcoin than companies that are solely Bitcoin companies. Again, you need everyone.

You need the BlackRocks, you need the Coinbases, you need the hardcore Bitcoin maximalist companies, and you need the individual node operators. everyone's on the same team they may have different tactics they may not think that they're working together but that's the beauty of bitcoin is that there's no centralized coordination but everyone's on the same team they're on team orange and black rock is a bitcoin company you can say they're not you can pretend they're not they can pretend they're not they're a bitcoin company it's the most profitable product guess what if black rock became a bitcoin company everyone else is like

i'll become a bitcoin company if i can have a really profitable product like the bitcoin etf like sign me up right and so i think that's what you're starting to see is that people are realizing saying, wait a second, this asset is not going away. I see when I go on TV all the time, right? When I go on TV, it used to be, they would laugh. They would literally like, oh, here comes like the whipping boy, right? Like, oh, let's just pummel this guy. This guy's a moron, right? And we're going to make him look stupid. And I'd sit there and I'd say, you know what? Well, I disagree. This is what I think is going to happen, but whatever. Was I a hundred percent right all the time on timelines, all this stuff? No, of course not. I'm human. But directionally, like, I mean,

You want to argue with me on TV at $3,000 telling you things are going up? I don't know, $25,000. Like, I think, you know, we can check that box, right? Now, then it went to, they were cautiously skeptical. They said, yeah, I don't know about this thing. But yeah, I see some people buying. It went up in price a little bit. Let's see what happens here.

Now, you go on. They basically, they just kicked their feet up. They're like, let's watch the show, right? They realize this thing's not going away. Paul Tudor Jones, Ken Griffin, Larry Fink, they're all talking about it. They all are telling you the same thing. So unless you think now that you are smarter than the masses

and you think you're smarter than the best investors in the world and you think you're smarter than BlackRock and you think you're smarter than name any other big financial institution, get on the train. So now what's happened is Bitcoin has transitioned from contrarian trade to a consensus trade.

And if you're not on the Bitcoin train, you're the one who's actually the outlier. You're the black sheep. You're the one who everyone's looking at saying, hmm, that person might not be that smart. And that's a big shift that's happened over the last decade or so. And I think that it's only going to continue.

And eventually people are just going to think of Bitcoin as every other asset. Of course, it's got a place in our portfolio. So you mentioned two names there, Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones. Obviously both. Goats. Goats.

Obviously both of them have started to think about the debasement trade a little bit, right? How should investors be thinking about inflation versus there's tons of assets out there. You can go buy stocks, right? Stocks will go up if the currency gets to base. Gold will go up if the currency gets to base. Bitcoin should go up if the currency gets to base.

How should investors be thinking about the allocation? Morgan Stanley is only saying 2%, 4%. I know you probably will be higher. That's because they're scared. They're scared. They don't want to tell people to put a bigger allocation, right? They don't want to tell people to say, hey, actually, you know what?

We think that this should be 10% or 20%. I forget who it is. There's some big institution that now has come out and said, actually, we think it should be 60% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold. Again, they're scared. They don't want to say Bitcoin, right? It's still on the fringe. It's not quite there yet.

But what do you think the individuals are doing? I don't know a single person, by the way, who is an individual on the internet who's got 1% allocation. Bitcoin is like a I believe or I don't. Even if they put in 1%, it grew. Of course, right? By the way, in the last year, it doubled. So now you're at 2%. It's like, I don't know.

I don't know anyone who's got 1% allocation to Bitcoin. It sounds good. People used to ask me, what should you do? And like, it was the like, cover your ass thing, right? Like, oh, 1%, 1%, 1%. Rick Edelman saying 40%. right? Well, shit. If the hall of fame financial advisor can say 40%, I don't know if it's 40%, 10% is a bigger number than one. And you know, I used to go around and back in like 2018 or

something, uh, I started saying, get off zero, get off zero, get off zero. Right. And it was the way of just saying like, I don't know what the right number is, but I know zero is the wrong number. Well, guess what? Now the number is not one because 1% is not going to do it for you. It's not going to actually save you. It's not going to go ahead and see it. And so I know like there's one hedge fund manager i know um who's uh had a very storied career in finance he now manages a hedge fund himself and um he's got 20 he got rich and then now he's a you know when i go to lunch with him go to a nice restaurant so yeah he's cool he's nice rich probably um but he's got 20 gold and bitcoin 15 gold five percent bitcoin and i've been giving him a hard time for

like a year and a half two years my hey why don't you you know shift these like put some more Bitcoin. Gold's up 50% this year. Bitcoin's only up 33. He's, you know, he's running circles around me saying, ah, look at this. So again, I'd like Bitcoin much more than I like gold, but I think both have a good spot. So come back to for a second, these guys talk about the debasement trade. What else are you going to buy? That's the whole point. What else are you going to buy? The stock market is up a hundred percent since 2020. It is down 90% denominated in Bitcoin. If you are a stock investor, you have lost purchasing power when measured against a finite asset that cannot be debased.

Housing, stop it. Forget about it. Even worse, right? Go through any asset. They've all fallen at the feet of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not only the apex predator, it is the king of finance. It is the hurdle rate. And that's why I keep saying, if you can't beat it, you got to buy it.

It's the ultimate hurdle rate. So are there people who are outperforming Bitcoin? 100%. or any of the large hedge funds outperforming Bitcoin? Probably not. Probably not. Especially if you add, you know, three to five year time performance.

So you start to say to yourself, again, that doesn't mean that somebody should go put 100% of their money in Bitcoin. It just means that if that's the hurdle rate, then you got to own the hurdle rate. You got to own the market. That is the new market. Owning the S&P 500, productive assets

are getting trounced by a non-productive asset, whether it's gold or Bitcoin. So the whole idea of owning the productive asset, it's crazy. The other part that I think people drastically underestimate about the importance of Bitcoin, it's simple. If I said to you right now, you got to go buy NVIDIA. Okay, great. Let's just say that you are somebody who doesn't think for themselves.

And you just say, Anthony said, buy NVIDIA. I didn't say that, but just say that I did say that, right? And you went and you bought it. Now you're holding NVIDIA. Now you got to pay attention. Is NVIDIA stock going to go up or down? What customers are they going to do? What products are they coming out?

What about the competitive dynamics of other people creating chips? Oh, wait a second. Open AI, we put $100 billion in. Now they're going and doing a deal with AMD, right? Oh, did Jensen say something on the earnings call or not? Oh, wait a second. Interest rate. This is chaos.

If you're a school teacher, a fireman, a police officer, a small business owner, or somebody anywhere in this country that does not do finance as a profession, how do you have time? Oh, and by the way, your financial advisor is telling you to have 30 stocks. So how do you keep track of all that? It's hard. It's complex. It's difficult.

With Bitcoin or gold, but Bitcoin, you save in an asset that cannot be printed by anyone. Savings technology. All of a sudden, I don't have to worry about any of that stuff. Think of how crazy the world has been for the last decade. We've had wars. We've had printing of money. We've had pandemics. We've had more printing of money.

We've had all kinds of public health crisis. We've had change of governments. We've had people arrested. We've had all sorts of socioeconomic problems. We have economic booms. We've had economic pull-downs. We've had printing of money. We've had deflation.

We've had the market go up, the market go, all that stuff. You know what's never changed? Bitcoin. Miners, node operators, software developers. Block after block. Doesn't accelerate, doesn't slow down. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. It is the signal among all the noise.

Name a company that has had no changes to it since a decade ago. You can't. They all change. Sometimes the leadership changes. Sometimes the products change. Sometimes the competition changes. Sometimes the market conditions change.

Sometimes the customers change. All that stuff changes. The simplicity of Bitcoin is simply saving Bitcoin. And I think that is ultimately why there are so many Bitcoiners around the world who have done so well is because it takes timeless investing principles. Buy a great asset, hold it forever.

Dead simple. It is codified into Bitcoin. The narrative, the ethos, the values of Bitcoin, everything is just saving Bitcoin. And Bitcoin then takes care of the rest. And that is incredibly empowering for a lot of people around the world. So one thing that has changed over the last 10 years

is Bitcoin's price, right? And volatility. No, but volatility works. It's fun when you're on the roller coaster going up, but man, it hurts when you're going down and you have 50% of your portfolio in an asset that goes down by 80%. How do you think about the downturn volatility

and protecting yourself. Because if you just put 100% of your portfolio, we're not suggesting that, but 100% of your portfolio in Bitcoin goes down by 80%, boom, you just lost 80% of your money. Well, don't put 100% of your portfolio in something that has 80 volatility if you're going to need the money

between now and two years from now, right? If you think about different investors are looking for different things. If you're 75 years old, you're retired and you need income, you're probably not buying a lot of Bitcoin because you're not looking for a true store of value. You're much more worried about your cashflow. You're much more worried about the yield

that you can generate. You're much more worried about what is the actual asset base that I have so that I can run this off in retirement. Now, I would argue that you still shouldn't have 0% allocation to Bitcoin, right? But that is probably gonna be a much lower allocation to Bitcoin than somebody who is in their late 20s

and is like, I got my whole career ahead of me and I'm trying to asymmetrically grow. I'm looking for wealth creation via concentration. That's a whole different story than somebody who's looking for diversification, protection, yield, et cetera. And so I just think that we like to paint things black and white. They're not black and white, right? It is obviously there is a difference there.

And I think that Bitcoin is different things to different people. And, you know, I love the things that the Human Rights Foundation is doing. They show how people use Bitcoin on a daily basis for nothing economic. They use it to prevent the seizure of their assets. They use it to be able to make payments that are not censorable, right? They use it to be able to protect themselves from incredible hyperinflation. I mean, all these things. It's a freedom tool in that case.

But then I know guys that are sitting on Park Avenue who are buying Bitcoin and they're like, cross my fingers, hope it doubles, right? And they don't give a shit about any of that other stuff. Neither person is wrong. Bitcoin is not a different thing, right? It's just, it's serving a purpose that they have. And so I think that Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones, one, they're bullish. Sugar rush was the terminology that Ken Griffin used.

Paul Tudor Jones, I watched the interview live. I got up out of my chair and I was like, let's go. This guy's bullish, right? I would never, ever counter trade PTJ, ever. He's not always right. He'll be the first one to say he's not always right. But from a macro understanding of market conditions, that man is one of the best in the world. has been for decades, will continue to be in my opinion. And he went on there and he basically

said, it feels like 1999, but not the end. He said, it feels like we're going to have a blow off top. Now, again, what people will do, I'm going to call it right now. People are going to take this interview or any other interview that we've done the second half of 2025. And there will be a market crash in Bitcoin at some point. I don't know if that's in 26, 27, when it happens, it'll happen at some point. And they will come and they will get the tweets, the videos, the podcast, all this stuff. Like, look at these morons. Look at these morons. I'm telling you right now, there's still going to be volatility. There's still going to be downside. There's still going to be market corrections. All that stuff is going to happen. But I'm telling you right now,

in October of 2025, if you think that Bitcoin is more likely to go down than up, we're looking at two completely different worlds. Average return, opening bell, Phil Rosen. By the way, shout out to Phil. Phil has had some data. Phil is very good at analyzing data and writing about it. He usually does it for the traditional world. When he gets unleashed on Bitcoin, I don't know if there's just better data or what this man just finds things and and i see them all that's a great point average return of q4 for bitcoin since 2015 this guy was in his bag he was back a decade average return in q4 for bitcoin since 2015 59 about 60 again average could go down sure i don't think so that's not what i'm betting on i'm long i'm loud let's see what happens now for your cycle

is it over? That's the trillion dollar question. I don't know about that. That one, I genuinely don't know. I ask every single person that I know. You think it's over? You think it's over? Why? What's your logic? What's the data? What are you looking at? All stuff. I'm trying to learn. If you said to me right now, what's the thing that I don't know? That's it. Is the four-year cycle over or not? Because that one question to me is going to determine whether you do certain things in the market or do other things. What's your time horizon? How do you think about acquiring more bitcoin all those questions is for your cycle over or not today's episode is brought to you by polka dot polka dot offers secure scalable and decentralized blockchain technology that perfectly

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platforms. If you're looking for a reliable, scalable, and cutting-edge solution, Polkadot seems to be the top choice for industry players. Go check them out today at polkadot.com. One question that people are asking is September, normally a down month, obviously just had its best month in 15 years. What are your thoughts? What's going on here? Told you. Told you. Remember? Do you remember I was sitting right in the seat, you were sitting in that seat. We were talking at the beginning of September and I said, the fact that everyone thinks that September is going to go down. Now, what I will say is there's two things. There's the stock market, which had its best year in 15 years. And then

there's the bitcoin market and the bitcoin market was up when normally it's down right so two separate things but they both had good months uh compared to the historicals uh the bitcoin market was the thing that i i said i believe i think i actually caveat i again i was being a little uh scared and i said 75 confidence i gave myself a little i was being a little uh weasel and i gave myself yeah i gave myself the ability to get out which i shouldn't have done but whatever it's fine 75 still pretty high confidence that bitcoin was going to end up in the month of september and my logic was that everyone said it was going to go down. Look, I got a small brain, right? In the sense of very simple is if everyone believes one thing, I ask myself, what if the other thing is

true? That's it. Very simple. And guess what? Everyone was wrong. Everyone who thought it's going to go down because it always goes down. It went up. Now, part of it was that Bitcoin had actually gone down into the close of the month of August. So our starting point was pretty low. It was like $10910,000. So it had drawn down like 10%. So that increases the odds we're going to have an up month. And that's what we ended up having. In the stock market, listen, the bulls are in control. Do you remember? I mean, just think, I want everyone to do this for a second. I want you, if you're listening or watching, I want you to close your eyes for a second. And I want you to think back in your mind to April of 2025. And every time you would turn on

the television. Every time that you would go on X or Reddit, if you would go and you would look at what people are talking about, if you went to your country club or you went to the local bar or you just talked to your barber or your taxi driver, everyone was pessimistic. They were regurgitating the public conversation points of tariffs are bad. This is going to be super inflationary. There's going to be empty shelves, the recession, the depression, all the chaos. Yas. I can count on two hands how many people I know who are max bullish during that entire thing. Three of them are sitting in this room right now, right? And when you think through that, you say to yourself, wait a second, we went from max pain, max fear in the first half of the year

to max bullish in the second half of the year. What changed? What people thought about the tariffs didn't come true. The Fed cut rates, asset prices went up. Price drives sentiment. And so we learned that in 2020 and 2021. We're learning it again now. What I will say is I think that there is significant room for asset prices to run. I do not know when it ends, but there will be a correction. When that correction happens, could be in a year, could be in five years, could be in six months, could be in two weeks. I don't know. But when it happens, you should have already done the work to prepare yourself and say, based on the asset allocation that I have right now, I feel comfortable capturing the upside that is left in this bull market, but I am also

comfortable holding these assets if they were to draw down 50% or more. That is how I think about investing. I want to hold assets that are asymmetric to the upside, but I also want to have an allocation in that high risk bucket where if it draws down 80% like it has in Bitcoin, I'm cool. I can wait. I'll just wait it out. I'm not going to do anything. You can't panic sell me, right? That is the type of asymmetric upside capture with the resiliency on the downside that makes an investor very, very dangerous in the market because they can take high risk because they're willing to actually ride the downturns. Now, a lot of investors, especially hedge funds, they can't do that stuff, right? So they can't take too much risk because they can't take too

much downside risk. So now all of a sudden, what you start to say to yourself is, how am I positioned so that I can continue to enjoy the fruits of this bull market? The market gods, they're sprinkling pixie dust all over the market right now. It's amazing. I mean, we're recording this on the fifth trading day of October, I believe. Guess how many all-time highs there's been in the S&P, NASDAQ and Dow so far in the month of October. How many? Five. Today is the sixth, I believe. Every single day in the month of October, all-time high, all-time high, all-time high, all-time high. Pixie dust. It's amazing. But just understand that at some point, it cools off. At some point, right? And so I'm excited. I'm bullish. I think we're going higher.

But I also am somewhat, I got my feet on the floor, right? 2021, I didn't have my feet on the floor. 2021, wow. Who knows what's going to happen now, right? I mean, Bitcoin might go to a million next week, right? Maybe I'm a little bit more experienced. Maybe I'd like to think I'm a little bit more mature. I think I got, again, a little bit more grounding. I've seen enough market cycles now. Okay. We're going to go up, but just understand there is going to be pain at some point. Make sure that you are allocated in a way where you are comfortable dealing with the pain because every single thing that you are doing to capture upside means that you are also taking risks to the downside. And that's okay. That's fine. That's not a bad thing. But do not

be an idiot and go and put 100% of your money in some altcoin. Do not go and put your money, 100% of it in some stock that you think is the next thing that the Trump administration is going to buy equity in and all of a sudden it's going to fly, right? Start to think long-term, be resilient, do all the right kind of timeless investing principles. And guess what? If you do that stuff, you have way more fun in the bull market. That's the other thing is if you are prepared for the bear market, you can enjoy the bull market more. And I think that a lot of people, what they do is they just focus all on the bull market. They have no resiliency. And so they're constantly like, it's today, the day, it's today, the day. Chill out. I'm prepared. Don't worry.

You can put me on the roller coaster, up, down, sideways, whatever. I'm good. most people just want to buy assets and chill honestly if it's easier time in the market not timing the market we talk about it all the time hey look this this price is suppressed here what's going on here why is this running up uh if you missed one trading day in april i believe you have a wildly different return in your portfolio opening bell phil rosen shout out phil you guys should go subscribe to opening bell um if you did not participate in the market on april 9th April 9th has been the single biggest jump in prices on an intraday basis all year.

So it's the best trading day of the year. If you did not participate that day, your return is 4% year to date as of like last week. If you did, so if you basically stay fully invested in the market since the beginning of the year, your return's 14%. One day, 10 percentage point difference. That's crazy.

Crazy. stop trying to outsmart the market again if you prepare for the downside and you're willing to use to hold your portfolio through the storm you can enjoy the good stuff you want to hear a great story let's hear it there's this uh adage that i recently came across a farmer goes to hire somebody and he asked the guy he says uh how do i know you're good right what's your experience and he says, well, sir, I could sleep through a storm. And the farmer says, that's not what I asked you. I said, how do I know that you're good at the job?

And he said, sir, I could sleep through a storm. So the farmer says, that's a weird answer, but that's fine, I'll hire you. And so he starts working and the farmer every night goes to sleep with his wife. No problem, farmhand goes to sleep, sleep and sleep and sleep and day after day after day. One day, all of a sudden, oh no,

farmer wakes up, a big storm is coming. he wakes up his wife he says oh my god we got to bring everything inside they run outside and all of a sudden he sees none of his farm equipment he goes into his shed he realizes that all the farm equipment is put away nicely in the shed he runs around his house and says i gotta put all the shutters on the house and he realizes wait a second all the shutters are already there then he runs and he tries to figure out where all his animals are they're all put away nicely safe underneath uh cover so they're not going to get rained on then he runs back around he goes and checks every single little thing and he realized they don't have to do anything and he goes and he

goes and he finds the farmhand and he says, Hey, he realizes the farmhand sleeping. He didn't have to wake up because he prepared every single night as if there was a storm coming. And so when he had asked him, he said, how do I know you could do the job? And he said, I can sleep through the storm. The farmhand knew if I just do the things that I'm supposed to do when that storm starts rolling in, I don't have to wake up. I don't have to go and scramble around and try to put the shutters and put the equipment away and find the animals. I just make sure I'm prepared. That's what investors have to do is you are going to enjoy the bull market this shit is fun obviously but be prepared can you sleep through the storm i think that is the challenge now

is i don't know how long it's going to go on for it won't go on forever but enjoy it be prepared just relax they are going to put asset prices to the sky because these people cannot stop printing money how fortunate are we it's not very fortunate they're hurting a lot of people obviously. But as investors, you have a responsibility to go spread the word and explain to people you have to become an investor. You can't be a saver in this economy because they are going to keep printing money and punishing people. So help people. Get them onto the life raft. Get them onto the boat. Tell them you have to become an investor. I don't care if you start with $5 in the S&P 500. You got to start becoming an investor because that's the only way you can

protect yourself. One thing that someone told me five years ago was have enough money to weather the storm. This was an individual that went through the 2008 financial crisis and pretty much lost everything. And I asked him, what did you learn? And he was basically just like, you got to make it to the other side of the storm. You got to wake up the next day and just basically be able to get through it. And I think if you can do that, you'll be all right. Well, I think that's why I like Bitcoin so much is because I believe that Bitcoin is the most resilient asset in financial markets, right? I think gold is also very resilient, but I think Bitcoin is the most resilient. Um, and so by buying Bitcoin, I have a mentality. The only time that I can remember

in any recent history that I've had to sell Bitcoin was because I had to go and pay taxes. Right. But outside of that, I'm not selling the Bitcoin. Like if a dollar goes in, I don't want to come back out right now. Are there things where, um, if I own the ETF or whatever, I'm talking about like actual Bitcoin, right? I look at it and just say, that is something I want to hold for a very long time. And so having the savings account of Bitcoin is very different than like a trading position of Bitcoin, right? But that savings is just, it doesn't matter if it goes up, down, sideways, whatever. I think I've said how many times, right? The actual Bitcoin that I own, I want to give to my grandkids. Just give it to them. And whatever happens between now

and then, guess what? They're going to get Bitcoin. I don't know if it's going to be worth anything, but they're going to get it. Maybe it's going to be worth a lot. Maybe it's going to be worth a little, like let's find out. And that's how a market gets made. Awesome. All right. Thank you. That's it guys. Talk to you next week.