The Pomp Podcast - Is the Bull Market Over? Bitcoin’s Next Move Explained | Jeff Park
Episode Date: September 25, 2025Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC. In this conversation we talk about what’s going on with bitcoin, bitcoin treasury M&A, recent liquidation in the market, stablec...oins, Tether, and is the bull market over? ======================Check out my NEW show for daily bite-sized breakdowns of the biggest stories in finance, technology, and politics: http://pompdesk.com/======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $500 in rewards.======================Core is the leading Bitcoin scaling solution, enabling you to lock in yield by locking up your Bitcoin. Simply lock it on the Bitcoin blockchain to secure the Core network, and get rewards. No bridging. No lending. Just holding. Still your keys. Still your coins. Now your yield. Start at https://stake.coredao.org/pomp======================TimeStamps:0:00 - Intro1:53 - Evaluating Strive buying Semler Scientific9:51 - Why is bitcoin’s price going down?14:16 - Takeaways from Jerome Powell comments19:14 - Tether eyes $500 billion valuation30:55 - Bitcoin Q4 outlook
Transcript
Discussion (0)
What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening
to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world
and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the
world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch
episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to
help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's
episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast
are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat
any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular
investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion.
This podcast is for informational purposes only. There's a lot of people you mentioned earlier,
they think the bull market's over there's i think some degree of kind of disappointment that
bitcoin's lagging so much right i mean if you look at all the other gold bugs they're beating us
gold bugs but i think sometimes these are actually the coil spring effects as i've observed that
really can create some meaningfully strong moves uh and in a rapid pace the other fact i will share
with you is that actually i haven't seen many people talk about it but what's going on guys
Today, we've got a great episode with Jeff Park. Jeff is a partner and chief investment officer at
ProCap BTC. And in this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Bitcoin, Bitcoin
Treasury M&A between Semler and Strive. Then we get into the recent liquidation in the Bitcoin
market. Price went down a lot. Should we be concerned? Is the bull market over? And then,
of course, we talk about stablecoins and the fact that Tether is raising money at a $500 billion
valuation. That's a big number. And so go into all the insights there as well. Here's my latest
conversation with Jeff Park. All right, Jeff, I thought a great place to start the conversation
is the big news, Semler Scientific being acquired by Strive in an all-stock deal. I think this is
kind of the kickoff of M&A season in the Bitcoin treasuries. What's your read on this? How do you
kind of evaluate the pros, the cons, and everything in between? Yep. Yep. The pros I think here is
what we've known all along, which is that this is a race to scale. And opportunistically from
time to time, you have the chance to get a large chest of Bitcoin all at once. And historically,
people have talked about whether there's some intangible value also prescribed to micro
strategy for having accumulated so much on Bitcoin that you couldn't really access that
as a block trade. Sometimes I think people conflate this idea that Bitcoin trades at a
particular price in a day and you can basically buy Bitcoin over a certain amount of period of
time and accumulate it at such a price. But we know at scale, that's never the case. You move
the market. So actually, the chance to grow a substantial war chest all at once this early
in the race of building the treasury accumulation strategy is pretty meaningful. And I think that's
what Semler and the Strive team recognize as an opportunity. So I think on one hand,
it shows you that we're still very early, where the number one priority is to grow as much Bitcoin
in as you can to scale to unleash the operational capabilities beyond that. And so I think it's an
exciting reflection of where the industry is at this moment in time. Now, when you think about
the deal structure, all stock seems to be a core component of it. And then also directionally,
it looks like Strive was at like 3.6 times MNAV and Semmler was more kind of trading around
MNAV. But by paying 210% premium, it looks like there's some ARB where the similar shareholders
are very excited because they're getting paid 200% more than what this market was valuing them at.
But it still makes economic sense for the Strive team, right?
Yeah. Essentially, in any situation, there's a close-ended formula for what merger ARB should
price itself for, which is that if everything is priced off of a stock value, then there is
a known fixed rate, in this case, I think something close to 20 to 1, in which you can
actually go long one versus short the other and find that to be pricing a return on your time
and capital for where you assign the deal probability itself, right? As in the deal
will go through or the deal might break. And you actually have a formula there to understand the
chance of the deal getting approved. The tricky thing here is if you take just the rate alone
today, it would almost imply as if the deal is not going to get through because it feels like
it's implying too much of a free money dynamic on the table. So for example, if you were at deal
announcement able to go long semlar and short strive to box the merger arbitrate 20 to 1,
your return there I think was north of 100%. So that tells you a couple of things. One,
maybe you actually can't borrow capacity of one of the stocks to actually be able to go short
drive. That could be a market pricing and liquidity question. And then the second dynamic
would be people actually don't think the deal is going to happen and therefore is underwriting a
deal break. I don't think that's the case, but I think what it's showing you is that the market
is still wrapping their head around a variety of different dimensions. One, they've never seen a
deal before where the premium that is being priced based on fiat is actually weaponizing the Bitcoin
value as an MNAV contract itself. Wall Street has not seen that. And then the second part is
underwriting the deal closed from the aspects of where that dilution and accretion is going to come
from, which shareholder to who, and who's in favor of that deal, I think is a little bit
challenging to know at the very beginning as well, without that terminal conviction that the goal is
mutually beneficial for both parties, ultimately, because both parties want more Bitcoin and a
balance sheet going forward. Now, when you think about these companies coming together,
uh strive has a traditional business in the asset management space similar has a medical business
they explicitly call out in the transaction documents and announcement that they are going
to essentially spin out the medical business or they'll figure out kind of what to do with it
later so it does feel like hey this is us just getting another 5 000 bitcoin if you're strive
onto their balance sheet they now cross over 10 000 bitcoin you know there's a couple of kind of
key milestones here but the speed at which they're doing this right they've only been public for
a week or two, kind of deal closed is impressive. Yeah, definitely impressive. My first thought when
I read the PR was, man, poor Logan Byrne, the chief legal officer at Strive, who's probably
getting slammed left and right for all the deal consummations to be had. You may remember,
even the week prior, they acquired True North, which is going to be used as a form of their
media platform to communicate with investors too. So they've been on a tear. And actually,
I think we need more of that energy where people are willing to take different kinds of risks
in corporate actions, but also strategic decisions to show investors what's possible that might not
have been demonstrated before. And I think of Matt as somebody who is also a fiduciary at his heart.
He was coming from the world's biggest pension as a fiduciary. So I think having someone like him
as a stalwart to bring upon that movement of corporate takeover for Bitcoin accumulation
is a strong signal and um it's up to now the investors to vote on it as it comes through but
i think that generally people will see alignment that this is actually good for both parties
do you expect the m&a to also affect the private market as well like will we start seeing some of
these public companies buying the private companies private companies in terms of i mean there's
plenty of private companies that have bitcoin on the balance sheet right um public i think people
look at it they say you know it's pretty complex to have two public companies do a merger like
this, you got a shareholder vote, et cetera. If Semlor was private and had 5,000 Bitcoin sitting
on their balance sheet, why couldn't somebody come in and buy them in the private market?
Yeah. I think having some scale is important there. So you'd have to find a private company
whose value is mostly driven by that balance sheet relative to the operating business.
I think it's also like a capital formation strategy at some level as well. There are
certain things that Strive investors will tolerate as a good thing. And there are some things for
which they might not think is possible. And so in an ideal world, if you think about the journey of
raising capital to buy more Bitcoin, the best thing you can do is actually just raise more
money and buy one for one Bitcoin. That's actually the best thing. So the ability to do it through a
stock introduces some dynamic component as to how much leverage are you getting per dilution of
Strive shares. But to your point, the arbitrage here is that Strive is trading at a strong
multiple that can afford them the chance to do that. Whether they will let you do that for a
private company that has subscale amount of Bitcoin for a more profitable operating business
is one that the MNAV math isn't nearly as clear. Because in that scenario, we're really talking
about not necessarily acquiring more Bitcoin, but the possibility of a profitable cashflow
generating operating business that's private, that actually can generate Bitcoin yield in a
different organic fashion. So I think this is really unique because Semler was trading,
I think, around 0.9, maybe a little below MNAV as well. And so there is the sense of there being an
arbitrage if you're able to collapse that, spin off the medical company and really take Bitcoin
for what it is. But I don't know if there's any other private companies that have built their
war chest on just Bitcoin accumulation without an operating business that they wanted to keep
otherwise. It's harder in the private market, right? I think so. Bitcoin liquidation, like one
of the biggest liquidations we've seen recently. What's your take on Bitcoin's price going down,
everyone freaking out online and this big liquidation? Yeah, yeah. If you follow some
folks on Twitter, they'll say the cycle's over, which is crazy because I think we're just at the
beginning. Pack it up, boys. But it is jarring, right? Because I think it was a pretty large
liquidation. I believe it was the largest year to date. Bitcoin has seen something close to $2
billion. And it did break us down from $117K, $118K all the way to $112K pretty fast. So it
is jarring. But anyone who's been around Bitcoin long enough knows these things are actually
fairly typical apart for the course. What's I think interesting is it did also elevate
implied volatility as a result for the first time in a while. So it jumped from what was already a
very low denominator starting point in the low 30s to maybe mid-high 30s. Funnily enough,
it's all coming back in again. And so I think the market is pricing in further inaction from
this price point or more optimism that there isn't going to be more liquidation to come through.
So why did it happen? Timing-wise, I think the most notable reality is it's right after FOMC.
And there was some leverage built into the system for perhaps people having expectations that the rate cut would signal a start of a cycle.
But what Powell ended up coming online to share on Monday was that this was a risk management decision, right?
This wasn't actually to initiate a further rate cutting cycle, even though I think everyone in the market believes it will be and is the case.
But Powell did hedge that this was more preemptive than not from a risk management perspective,
not to signify the start of something new.
And I think that kind of threw people off course, right?
Because there are others that would have gone for three more cuts to come by the end of
the year, 50 to 75 bps.
And that puts that now at risk.
But then you also quickly had Moran come online and say he actually fundamentally disagrees
and believes a neutral rate actually just needs to be a lot lower.
And if that's the case, we're nowhere near the end of any rate cutting cycle.
So I think some of this, I think, will just have to play itself out.
And what we're still seeing is a relentless demand for gold.
And the thing with Bitcoin is gold is good.
And when gold is good, there's other kind of risk-off assets that can traffic alongside
that correlation.
um chf is one of them the swiss franc and that also has been a very strong performer this year
and so i think there is this general kind of worry of risk off sentiment looking for a store of value
but also the thing with bitcoin even though it benefits from that is it's also sometimes
perceived as like a risk on asset so it does have correlation to equities as well and so if we think
that there's actually going to be an economic contraction i think bitcoin does participate at
some level in that volatility as part of it. And so it's a little bit sometimes schizophrenic as
to figuring out which version it wants to play out. And that's maybe what we're seeing this
particular window. You might have seen the equity markets even today, Wednesday was very volatile.
And I think we'll be a little bit, even though historically one would say this is a pretty
strong September, even for equity markets. Today's episode is brought to you by Core.
You can earn yield on your Bitcoin by just holding your Bitcoin. It's simple. Core,
the leading Bitcoin scaling solution will reward you for not selling your Bitcoin.
It's not magic. Here's how it works. Core is a protocol secured by elected validators. You can
help elect validators and secure the network by simply locking up your Bitcoin on the Bitcoin
blockchain. No bridging, no lending, and just holding. When your validator secures core,
it earns rewards fueled by network activity and passes them back to you as yield. With a minimum
lockup of just one day, when the time lock ends, you get your Bitcoin back untouched.
Steal your keys, steal your coins, now your yield.
For even higher rates, stake Core alongside your Bitcoin and multiply your yield.
And if you want to see what your Bitcoin is securing, join millions of others in exploring the largest Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem.
There are over 100 live apps in the network and the deepest liquidity in all of Bitcoin DeFi.
Get off zero and start earning yield on even just 1% of your Bitcoin by going to stake.cordow.org.
slash pomp. Again, that's stake.cordow.org slash pomp, or go click the link in the description.
Well, what's interesting is, uh, Powell during the press conference, uh, around the FOMC meeting,
he was very, uh, measured, right? He was very intentional with his words this week. He's out
there saying all kinds of stuff, right? Like it's almost like, Hey, when the, when the lights are on
inside the stadium, right? I'm going to be very careful. All of a sudden he's back at practice,
right? And he's just going on. He's like easing cycles. And I mean, he's saying all the things
I think people wanted him to say in the press conference, but he almost feels safer saying them to a reporter that then gets kind of, you know, out there via an article or something like that.
So do you read into like, why didn't he say it at the press conference if he's now willing to say it, you know, a week later?
It's funny. I think there's part of him that wants to also maybe leave a more meaningful legacy beyond his duty at the core as Fed chairman, but also as a citizen, as a patriot, as an American, and wanting to convey a sense for the things he worries about.
One of the things that caught me from his speech earlier this week was how he commented
on the labor market, where he's lamenting the fact that young people going forward will
have to acquire more skills.
I thought it was a pretty jarring thing to say when you talk about unemployment rate
as one of the North Stars of determining a Fed rate policy, that for the first time,
he's actually talking about the quality of employment.
Like the need for high skills for young people to have relevance in the labor market to come is a pretty profound thing to share.
I would almost think it's a little political at some level, too.
But that kind of, I think, showed you inside maybe the inner struggle that Powell is also dealing with, that chairman persona, which he has to be meticulous and technocratic,
but really also fully recognizing that the fabric of those constitutions in unemployment data and
inflation has changed. So I think that's a little bit of what we saw. I think that's actually the
part that makes the debate so one-sided now, right? It used to be, okay, look at the job data
and everyone's like, we're looking at the same thing, but you're not looking at the same thing
now, right? If you look at it through the old lens, you're like, oh my God, jobs, whatever.
you look at it through the new lens you're like artificial intelligence is whacking me in the
forehead right now and telling me this is working companies are becoming more profitable they're
doing with less employees like you know he's saying hey you gotta upskill your job like you
know all these components in this new world i almost wish you could do like a spectrum you
know measurement right like how many people view the job data the way they've been viewing their
entire career and they've been doing it for 20 30 years and they're just like ah jobs look pretty
bad yeah we should cut rates and then i think a bunch of young people are like dude all my friends
can't find jobs because literally the thing that they were going to go do with that business,
now a computer can do. And that's not good for us. We got to figure out some other plan.
Yeah. And they've had so many revisions around these numbers over the whole year,
and it's been consistent down revision. So at some point, it's not even just that the data
we're measuring is irrelevant. The quality of the data itself is irrelevant too. And so when you
have both of those issues arising, it's very hard to take those things quite seriously, even from
someone who is trying to be as pedantic as possible about the importance of that output.
I think this is so key. This is also why the notion of Fed independence keeps coming up
in the dialogues of how I think Americans generally do not believe that to be true anymore.
Because when you have the very fundamental measurement of unemployment itself changing,
because the quality of employment itself is changing, there's no data that is relevant
anymore from the back that can extrapolate for the future.
That's why you hear so many spokespeople, and Besson included, saying the Fed needs
to be a little bit more creative about forward thinking about being ahead of the curve.
And in that sense, I think perhaps maybe this was a little bit of admittance on Powell's
end that he's understanding of that sympathetically, even though his decision is by decree he can't
do that, he also understands the frustration of how that model might need to change,
which I think is a really good thing. I love the rail on the Fed because I think
they're way behind the curve and all that stuff, whatever. But I actually do think that they're
way smarter than people give them credit for. Powell has slipped up two or three times in his
time as a Fed chair. And I forget, this is probably like 2021 or 2022. He mentioned
like alternative inflation measurement or like uh you know the unofficial like whatever terminology
he used yeah and you were like you're not supposed to say that like but he knows right he understands
that what they're reporting and there's other measurements out there they're looking at it all
i think the jobs thing is the same thing right it's like hey look i understand i was focused
on the number young people like get get it together right yeah which i think is uh which
is interesting uh another big headline uh in the last week or so is that tether is aiming to raise
20 billion dollars at a 500 billion dollar valuation um that's half a trillion for people
keeping track at home and uh there's many ramifications from this uh giancarlo the
chairman uh bloomberg is reporting would be the fifth richest known person in the world with a
net worth of $224 billion. Shout out to Italian. Good job. But also
Cantor Fitzgerald, which owns 5%. I believe they would be up 42X on their investment in like a
year. I mean, this is like many ramifications to this. What's your take on Tether at 500 billion?
Are you a buyer or a seller? Tether has proven itself at this point to be the kingmaker for
anyone who has been radical about trying to imagine what the future will look like. And this
is what has now become reality. There are so many people in the past, Tether naysayers, who really
believed Tether would just go away, that the US political apparatus is going to eventually catch
up and get rid of it because the conflicts are too obvious for it to exist without there being
punishment. And I've made the case in the past that eventually people will come around and realize
that the US political interest actually will lie in requiring Tether to succeed because
of the elephant in the room, which is the growing fiscal deficit for which we need to
offshore and export more dollars and eventually liquidity transformation if we can build the
right conduit to it.
And that's exactly what Tether is.
And so when you see not just the valuation, which by the way, 500 billion, we're talking
about who's in that category, OpenAI, SpaceX, these are world-defining categories.
And of course, if you're reinventing money, it's probably the most important thing that
could exist alongside in that same dimension.
So I think there's any valuation for it, which is going to be possible if it's within reach
for people to find access to it.
That's a pretty meaningful thing.
So I think that's a huge opportunity.
When you see Bo Heinz also launching a US-compliant stablecoin version here with Tether's
partnership, that's another sign that I think Tether is here to stay.
So look, I think the reality is that Tether is going to be a very powerful player.
It is also showing you what the long-term mission of exporting the dollar from a global
hegemony is going to look like. And the Eurodollar's market is going to always be a footprint for how
that's done. I just think in the past, even when you talk about the Eurodollar market as one born
out of World War II to support the Euro market, that's such a microcosm of what the global economy
looks like today. And so it shows you how quickly we're accelerating, how extensive network effects
are, and valuations really can just expand or shrink based on the network effect itself.
but you know i make no mistake i've always made the point that tether's valuation is never an
economic one it's actually not related as much to the economic earnings power of their balance sheet
it's entirely a political calculus and i think what we're seeing here is that it is winning
political capital and not just in the halls of dc but i think generally within the global citizen
and the populations who support decentralized finance and censorship-resistant money transmitting,
especially for the billions of people that want U.S. dollars that can't have access to it easily
without intermediation today. Do you think that their business gets hurt if rates come down?
I think that's the most direct profit corollary, but I just don't think that's what Tether's
valuation is anchored off of, ultimately. Because if you believe that Tether can reinvent the core
flagship product of money as a good, then there's just really a ton of other things as a sector that
it can make profits off of. So trade finance is a really easy one. I think historically,
they've also hinted about wanting to grow into trade finance as a business,
because that's really the murkiest corner of global trade, where it is most sovereign-less
and most censorship-resistant towards the types of activities that it conducts, especially when
you think about the involvement of things like maritime law, where there actually is no
jurisdiction for any country to operate in. And so, you know, if Tether can build a meaningful
trade finance business, which is a huge trillion, multi-trillion dollar opportunity that the banks
do serve, but with different kind of guardrails that they can't touch, which is why you have
commodities, powerhouses, then I think that's in itself a really valuable business that isn't
really determine its fate based on just rate alone. Today, it will affect profitability,
but I don't think anybody is valuing, again, Tether based off of that to think about $500
billion as the price appropriate. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin IRA.
Are you a crypto investor with a retirement account, but don't have any crypto in your
retirement account? Listen up, this is for you. Bitcoin IRA is revolutionizing the way Americans
save for retirement by helping smart investors diversify their savings with access to over 75
cryptocurrencies. With world-class customer service, military-grade encryption, and a
vertically integrated licensed trust company, it's no wonder more than 200,000 Americans trust
Bitcoin IRA to secure their financial future. Get started. It is quick and easy. It takes just
three minutes to open an account. Once you're set up, their team of IRA specialists will reach out
to guide you through every step of the process. Whether you're transferring an IRA from a legacy
bank, rolling over an old 401k, or starting fresh with a new contribution. The Bitcoin IRA team is
here to help you get access to real crypto in your retirement account. And here is the best part.
As a Pomp podcast listener, you can earn up to $1,000 in rewards when you add funds to your
account. Search for Bitcoin IRA in the App Store or visit BitcoinIRA.com slash Pomp to join 200,000
americans on their journey to upgrade their retirement that's bitcoinira.com slash pump
to upgrade your retirement today what's interesting is even if rates come down which looks like they
are going to come down they're growing so fast like i remember paulo told me at one point um
i think they had report like 400 million users or something and they were adding like 30 million a
quarter just like this is crazy growth right and and uh he has uh this line i think many people
tether will share some line that is uh you know social networks would be jealous of this growth
rate right just like you know they're just growing so quickly and they're doing it in areas that
actually the user they kind of don't have another option like this is the single best option it's
not like in the u.s and so um i agree with you that rates coming down wouldn't necessarily be
as detrimental as maybe people think uh to the business just because the growth you know is uh
is so fast. What about USAT and the US version? It feels like that is a pretty big development.
You know, it's Tether, it's Cantor, it's Bohans, and it's Anchorage all coming together to do that.
Yeah, I think USAT is the direct answer to compete with Circle and Stripe, which is that
the Genius Act and the Clarity Act has allowed for there to be a stable coin here in the US.
it's not really meant to be used for yield bearing solutions, but really more as a more
efficient digital payment solution mechanism. And there's value to this. And so to play in
that particular corner, you do want a US compliance centric model as well. So the thing
that I find interesting though, is like USAT and USDT are actually only common by Tether at the
Connexus, but they're operating in totally different TAMs. They're really separate stable
coin verticals, if you would. And let's see, when you think about what Stripe is doing and what
Circle is doing, they independently both launched their own stable coin chain, right? It's like a
EVM-compatible stablecoin chain to actually do some permissionless things.
And I've always made the joke that EVM-compatible layer ones is like code word for oligopoly,
because it's really not totally decentralized in the way people expect those things to
work based on what proof of stake in itself is, which is weighted by the amount of capital that
is being staked. And so if you're a player like Stripe or Circle, there's no real need to actually
build anything off of a layer two where you can carry your own distribution engine. So it makes
a lot of sense. Guess what? Tether also has an incredible distribution engine. Tether has an
incredibly strong, loyal base in which they really like aligning themselves next to projects that
either Tether is involved in or Tether is supporting that has more Bitcoin connectivity
and nativity. And I think those things are ways in which it will find its own unique way to compete.
In the end of the day, there's what I call inside money and there's outside money. Tether now has
both inside money through USAT and outside money to USDT. And there's no stable coin that has both.
That's why Tether is exceptionally, I think, positioned for the market.
And they just have a massive balance sheet. People forget that they have been investing
heavily using the profits from the business not the reserves but the profits of the business
all kinds of stuff brain computer interfaces you know mining artificial intelligence i mean these
guys are builders at heart and i think that uh you know you want money in the hands of builders
especially people who have been able to show that they can build at scale and solve problems for
people definitely definitely and let's not forget tether is also one of the original bitcoin treasury
companies because they have been accumulating bitcoin with the chance to have their operating
revenue, support the ecosystem. Because I think long-term, they too believe that Bitcoin will
serve as one of the many neutral assets that can stabilize and form a high-functioning store of
value that is also money. So I think that's another thing that people sometimes miss,
that in the long history of Bitcoin as an arc for creating economic opportunity are a lot of
these companies that believed in it early on to then afford themselves the privilege to build
something like a decentralized stablecoin. I think it's also why another kind of news item
that will go live tomorrow, Plasma, is having its mainnet launch tomorrow. And it's probably
the most anticipated mainnet launch of the year. And that is a tether-backed EVM-compatible
Layer 1 stablecoin chain. And the unique thing about Plasma is that they, while being EVM
compatible has always wanted to have some ability to have their final settlement being marked on
Bitcoin to create and reaffirm what Bitcoin can truly be, which is a permanent, irrefutably
irreversible kind of ledger for all the historical transactions for which you can actually find
validity for. And so I think that's also really exciting that Tether has a lot of partners around
its ecosystem to promote economic value capture models that maybe Tether itself won't do,
But there is others who will kind of build a whole network around it.
And that's really what any kind of financial processing services look like.
It's a network effect.
Last thing I want to talk about is through the end of the year, I think there's a lot
of people you mentioned earlier, they think the bull market's over.
But there's plenty of people who still think, hey, this is just kind of a lull.
Where do you come out on kind of from here through the end of the year with Bitcoin kind
of sentiment and performance?
Yeah. There's, I think, some degree of disappointment that Bitcoin's lagging so
much. I mean, if you look at all the other- The gold bugs are beating us.
The gold bugs, but even, like I said, the Swiss franc and the equities market and generally what
people track as global M2 liquidity having outperformed to $160 trillion and how Bitcoin
should actually have played a bigger catch-up to it. I think there are legitimately disappointment
within the Bitcoin investors. But I think sometimes these are actually the coil spring
effects, as I've observed, that really can create some meaningfully strong moves in a rapid pace.
The fact that I'll share with you is that actually, I haven't seen many people talk about it,
but right now is the highest options open interest for the Bitcoin CME options.
it's at $6 billion. It's the highest it's ever been. So I don't know what that means in terms
of what traditional Wall Street investors are hedging or speculating for. But despite the
futures open interest not having surpassed its peak from last year at the election, despite the
volumes not having peaked that time period, the one thing that is at its all-time high is the
open interest on Bitcoin CME futures options. And so I think there's still a lot of excitement to
be had for imagining volatility could pick up. And I still think it's a generational opportunity
to be able to take advantage of low volatility when the effect of that cold spring could actually
create some asymmetric outcomes. So I'm still very bullish. And I think that in the next three
months, we're going to see something pretty meaningful. I agree. I do not think it's over.
Maybe we're wrong, but we'll see. Where can we send people to find you on the internet?
you can always find me on X. My handle is dgt10011. And I also have a sub stack there
that you can subscribe to on my profile link. Amazing. By the way, I love how we've all
now converted. I don't hear anyone really talking about Twitter as much as like X.
X is now finally in the vernacular. Everyone accepts that's the name they use. And Elon's
vision has become- It was a hard one for me to wear off, but I feel I finally have gotten
indoctrinated i've tried now more uh deliberate effort to call it x and join the camp on the
same way all right we'll do it again next week let's do it
