The Pomp Podcast - Shocking Data Shows Bitcoin To Go MUCH Higher | Mel Mattison

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

Mel Mattison is one of the leading macro strategists on the internet, known for his deep insights into global markets and digital assets. In this conversation, we discuss the rotation from gold into Bitcoin, the stabilization of the U.S. dollar and what it means for global capital flows, and the relationship between volatility and bull markets — including why higher volatility often signals the start of a new bull cycle. ======================Check out my NEW show for daily bite-sized breakdowns of the biggest stories in finance, technology, and politics: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://pompdesk.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $500 in rewards.======================Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro1:57 - Gold’s historic run and rotation to bitcoin14:01 - US dollar stabilization and foreign flows19:02 - Relationship between volatility and bull markets23:16 - Capital rotation and long-term outlook

What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat

any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. We've got stocks at relatively high valuations. We've already had a strong rally in bonds. We've got gold and silver on just historical runs and now consolidating. So what's the asset class that's left to absorb that marginal dollar of capital? I think it's going to be Bitcoin. When I look at my trend work and my channels on Bitcoin, I do think and 150 has been my call by the end of the year on Bitcoin. What's going on, guys? Today we got a great episode with Mel Madison. Mel is one of the

greatest macro minds on the internet right now, and I always turn to him to understand what's happening in the market. Today, we are going to talk about three things that I think are important. The first is the rotation from gold into Bitcoin. You're going to hear how bullish he is on Bitcoin over the next couple of months. On top of that, we talk about the stabilization of the US dollar and why that is a big incentive for foreign capital allocators to start bringing money back into the market. And then third, we're going to talk about the relationship between volatility and bull markets and why the more volatile asset is, the more likely it is in a bull market. That and much more today with Mel Madison. Here's

my latest conversation. All right, Mel, I thought a great place to start the conversation. Gold has been on this historic run, one of the best years in like 40 or 50 years. We now are starting to hear rumblings of a gold to Bitcoin rotation. Do you think it's going to happen or not? I think it's going to happen. I think it's starting this week. I think in the medium to longer term, let's call it three to six months, I'm very confident, high, high level of probability that this is beginning now. Do I think there's always a potential? One more little flush out, shake out some weak hands, a little dip in the Bitcoin price, maybe all the way to the 98 level is possible. If it happens, I think it's one, two days back to 108. And then we're on our way to 140,

150 by the end of January. And to flesh out what I see happening here, really, is people need to just take a step back and really look at where we were just a year ago, right? So a year ago, before the election, the Bitcoin price somewhere in the 50s, okay? And literally, in the three months after the election, it went up over 50% and gold went up 2%. So it shouldn't be surprising to people that after a move like that, basically from 50s to 108, that we were going to spend some time, you know, consolidating, shaking out weak hands, making sure these price levels make sense. And I think right now we're at a key price level, which is that 108 level. This was that first breakout high that we got to at the end of last year and in January. And so we're just confirming

that's where we want to be. Could we do a quick slip? You know, 98 was something we hit around the time the United States bombed Iran. Check down to that level for a day or two and then come right back up. Sure. But when you look at the longer term price channels, we are right now in the lower bands of those channels and the upper bands, like I say, are pointing to 140, 41.50 by the end of January. Now, one of the things that you've looked at is this Bitcoin to gold correlation. You have this like rolling 60-day correlation. Talk to a little bit as to like what that measurement is and what is it telling us right now? Yeah. So there are times when gold and Bitcoin can trade together, and there are times when they don't. When you see

a big divergence, and that's what we've seen in this rolling 60-day moving average of the Bitcoin gold correlation basically get to zero and so so that that's a time when and there are some other key indicators as well such as the gold to bitcoin ratio which right now got down to a low that it bounced from in the past which was around you know 26 ounces of gold to to one bitcoin and so we're seeing whether it's in like these more technical oscillators and rsi divergences and um these correlation metrics uh the ratio we're just seeing us get to levels that historically have pointed to to a time to flip a time to turn and any one of these in isolation might not be enough to say okay this is the time i think this is going to happen but when you start putting them

all together and then you add on top of that what i would just call good old common sense right i I mean, this gold move has been incredible. And to go from roughly $3,500, $3,600 just two, three months ago to $4,300 is just a massive, massive move. And we had a massive move, not quite this big, but a very big move earlier this year in the spring. And we moved very quickly to $3,509 is what we hit on the futures. And once we kind of topped out, we never like crashed. So I'm not like predicting a gold price crash or that the gold move is over. It's just what we saw was we saw gold retreat back to the 20-day moving average.

And guess exactly where we stopped last night and today on gold, the 20-day moving average, which is around $4,000 on the gold price, like $420 on futures. And what happened last time was we hung around the 20-day for a couple of days. We kind of bounced from it. We tried to get to another new high, but we just couldn't. And over that time, which was like a two, three week period, the 50 day average moved up and eventually gold touched the 50 day. And then it just bounced around for the next three, four months, you know, in like a two, three hundred dollar range. And then as the hundred day moving average started moving up to the gold price, we really got another breakout. And I think that pattern is likely to repeat and that for this cycle, we've probably seen the high.

And once people recognize that there's so much capital, it's got to rotate. And you've got a market like Bitcoin, which is roughly like one tenth the size of the gold market. And you got the silver market, which is comparable to the Bitcoin market. And people, the short term money, you know, not the central banks, but the short term money is going to start to say, OK, where do I go now? and I think what they're going to do is they're going to find Bitcoin is where you want to be because we've got stocks at relatively high valuations we've already had a strong rally in bonds we've got gold and silver on just historical runs and now consolidating so what's the asset class that's left to absorb that marginal dollar of capital I think it's going to be Bitcoin

And I think even if we do, as I say, get a quick shakeout down to that 98 level, I think it's just going to be like dipping the toe in the water and come right back out. And then we're going to start moving back. And when I look at my trend work and my channels on Bitcoin, I do think and 150 has been my call by the end of the year on Bitcoin. it's possible but i'm i'm now thinking that while 150 is where we're heading it might not hit that until the end of january but still we're talking about three four months away today's episode is brought to you by simple mining have you ever been interested in mining bitcoin as a miner myself i've been using simple mining for the past few months and the experience has been nothing short of seamless i mine with the pool of my choice and the bitcoin is sent directly to my wallet

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With Simple Mining, they make it simple. Now, you've got this quote, Bitcoin and gold are like two surfers catching the same macro wave, but at different times. Gold caught the first big swell late this summer, but it's starting to flatten. Now Bitcoin looks ready to ride the next one. Are these the same investors? They allocate to gold, gold runs. Then they say, okay, the gold run, time to rotate back into Bitcoin. Or are these two different types of investors?

Somebody who says, let me put money into gold. Okay, I'm going to stop investing more in gold now and wait. Versus it is time for native Bitcoin investors to go and invest in Bitcoin. Same investors or two different pools that are kind of going in between these assets? It's different pools. And I think that goes a long way to actually explaining why they're not trading in tandem, even though, as I say, they're riding that same macro wave, the debasement trade, whatever you want to call it. Because, you know, on the one hand with gold, you've got the central banks, very sticky, you know, programmatic buying, kind of price insensitive. And then on the Bitcoin side, I think what's really kept the price in is just some of the whales, the OGs saying, hey, the four-year cycle thing, we've gotten to a level that is very high.

And plus, Bitcoin now has the liquidity that I can go in and I can sell 100, I can sell 1,000 coins and cash out some of this at some point in time. And that's just being worked through. And I think that's really what we've been doing this summer, is we've been working through, which is what you want to see for Bitcoin's long-term health and growth. You want to see the coin start to get spread out. You want to see it go from a few whales that unleash thousands of coins, and it starts going into whether it's directly being held, whether it's going into iBid and getting into a 1%, 2% allocation into people's portfolios. And we're seeing that dissemination of this fixed supply going out into the market, into other hands. And that's ultimately a good thing. But in the short term, it has kept, I believe, a lid on the prices this summer, even though those broad macro trends would make you think, hey, this is exactly the environment, you know, Fed getting ready to cut, you know, the basement trade, all the rage, gold moving. This should be a perfect environment for Bitcoin. I think it's that insider, not insider, but that base of who holds the coins, who's selling it when. And now we're starting to move into that next phase where I think what we're going to see is we're going to start to see more institutional adoption, this acceptance.

The Clarity Act is, I think, going to be some piece of news. We haven't heard a lot about it. The Sovereign Wealth Fund. So so these are things that I think the internals, the market dynamics, the market structure of Bitcoin are saying, hey, we want to go higher. We need that catalyst to really send it. And it doesn't take much. Just like when the market, the stock market was going up every day, it didn't take much for a three and a half percent drop in the Nasdaq. One Trump tweet and it happened because it was like a coiled spring.

It just kept going up, up, up. Everybody's like, we need an excuse to sell and take profits. They got that excuse. There it goes. I think everybody's looking at Bitcoin, seeing the things that we're seeing, saying, hey, this thing's kind of like consolidated, coiled spring, ready to go to the next level. They're waiting for that catalyst. When does that come? You know, that's very tough to tell. And that's why what I do is I look at the charts and I say to myself, look, I don't have a perfect crystal ball, but this 108 level is a key level. It's where we broke out to in the winter. And could we drop a little bit lower? Sure, we could.

But after being at 126, 127 on futures and dropping all the way to 103, I mean, I think that's when you have to start moving in. I started moving in last week. I moved in more this week. I still have about a third of what I want to allocate for my short-term bull move that I'm holding in reserve in case we get that quick dip down. But I mean, as far as, you know, how confident I feel, like I feel as good as I have pretty much all year, with the exception of maybe April when Bitcoin was in the 70s, that this is a time where you're going to see very nice returns over the next, let's call it four to eight months. Let's talk about the U.S. dollar being stabilized. It's obviously been very volatile over the last couple of months and maybe the last year or so. But now all of a sudden that stability is really changing the way that investors are looking at markets and asset prices.

Can you describe that more? Definitely. I think this is one of the undercurrents that we're seeing happen right now. We're seeing a bit of an internal rotation in the markets. We're seeing some of the larger mega caps actually do fairly well. Some of them have really not done much. You know, if you look at a Microsoft or an Amazon, even an NVIDIA, you know, has basically these have been range trades. And I think part of that reason why, part of the reason why is that back in the spring, not only did we have the tariff uncertainty that spooked investors, but we had that dollar move from roughly 110 very quickly down below 100.

You know, basically, it called a 10%, 12% quick decline in the dollar. And foreign investors, you know, they were looking at this and saying, you know, they were really hurt. Like, if you were a U.S. investor and you saw the S&P go down 20%, well, if you were a foreign investor in the S&P, you saw it go down 30%, right? Because you had on that 10% dollar move. So you got a third of your capital wiped out in a matter of weeks if you were a foreign investor, you know, home currencies, you know, in the euro, for example. So basically, I think the dollar has now stabilized. We've seen this range between 96 and 100 on the DXY. We've also seen kind of treasuries, you know, kind of get a little bit tamer.

In fact, below four was not something people were talking about as recently as a month or six weeks ago when everybody was freaking out because the 30-year hit 5%. So I think what that's doing is that's sending the signal to foreign investors that missed out on this big rally because they were afraid to allocate in, say, May or June because they didn't think it was over. They thought we were going to retest. They were worried about currency. And they've been waiting for a dip. And I think, honestly, we probably should have dipped more than we have. We haven't even gone, I don't think, much more, if at all, more than 3% down on the S&P from highs. And I think we probably should have had a 5% to 7% correction.

But what we're seeing, I believe, and we'll see this eventually when the Fed releases foreign holders of equity data, but we're seeing foreign investors come in. They're buying the big names. I think there's four big events out there that we need to get over. We need to get mega cap earnings, the Fed meeting and CPI over, the government shutdown over, and the Xi-Trump summit over. And all of those are coming to fruition in the next, let's call it three weeks. And that by the time we get into November, November 7th is a Friday. The week after that is the Tesla shareholder meeting on the 10th, I believe.

There's a lot of catalysts that I think people are buying some of this dip now. And then there are also some of these big institutions are saying, let's get over those events and then we're really going to come in. And so, again, that's what I think is going to set up the animal spirits, the risk sentiment in the end of the year. Who's going to be that marginal buyer? Retail has been in the market. Now we're going to start getting some of these institutions, especially foreign institutions, I think, piling in at the end of the year. U.S. portfolio managers playing catch up. And so I think November and December look great. And October as a shaky month is not a surprise to me and actually healthy for the longer term

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every step of the process. Whether you're transferring an IRA from a legacy bank, rolling over an old 401k, or starting fresh with a new contribution, the Bitcoin IRA team is here to help you get access to real crypto in your retirement account. And here is the best part. As a Pomp podcast listener, you can earn up to $1,000 in rewards when you add funds to your account. Search for Bitcoin IRA in the App Store or visit BitcoinIRA.com slash Pomp to join 200,000 americans on their journey to upgrade their retirement that's bitcoin ira.com slash pop to upgrade your retirement today now you talk about this uh bull market one of the things that you've pointed out is the nasdaq if people love to compare to the dot-com boom you know it's like

the big boogeyman that everyone wants to uh to look at uh you point out that there have been multiple 10 to 15 percent corrections on the way of the nasdaq going up like 400 percent during that bull market can you describe a little bit of how you look at volatility in the relationship with volatility in bull markets? Exactly. And I mean, Bitcoin holders know this well, like the biggest gains happen during times of extreme volatility. You had big pullbacks before even bigger upswings. And that is true in pretty much all asset classes. We're seeing it in gold right now. We had a massive $200 down day yesterday. And like I said, I think there's probably still a little more room to the downside to go in the coming weeks. But the thing is,

is that those moves down are also what give you the potential for the massive moves up. And we saw this in equities in the dot-com boom. I was just graduating college in the heart of this boom in the 90s. And so I was able to kind of, you know, actually live through it as an adult and as an investor. And it was really something that incredible. I mean, there would be these IPOs out up three, 400 percent. The next day they're down 200 percent. Oh, it's all over. And then two days later, they're up 500 percent. I mean, it was it was out of control. It was ridiculous. And we have not gotten anywhere near that. But what we are seeing is we're seeing a little bit of that volatility start to creep in. And I think that volatility is going to be here for the remainder

of this bull market because I think it's going to actually accelerate. And so what I did was I went back and I looked at, you know, what did the NASDAQ do between 95 and 99? What type of pullbacks did we see? We saw 15 plus 5% or more pullbacks. We saw one 28% pullback, even worse than what we saw in April. And then in 1999 alone, we had three 12 to 13% pullbacks in like an eight-month period, each time, completely recovered new highs very shortly thereafter. And so I'm not saying we're going to have three 10% pullbacks next year, but it wouldn't surprise me that we had three 5% to 7% pullbacks, only to be quickly recovered and then new highs made. And I think what investors, especially after this summer, where it just seemed like the market went up 20, 30 points on the S&P

every day and nothing was happening. And the VIX was, you know, at 15 or whatever it was. I think that you just can't expect that to be, it's like a free lunch. You're not going to have extremely low vol and extremely high returns for long. And I think if we're really heading in to what I do believe is the building of a bubble, I don't think we're, I think we're in like the second or third inning of it. If we're truly heading into that, then investors should get in their mind that we're going to have bigger pullbacks. We're going to have more days like we had a couple Fridays ago where the market tanks 3% in a day. We're just going to see those things and to be prepared for them and not get over leverage for what I would say is like ultra

short-term moves. Thinking, okay, we went down 2%. I know we're going to be back by that 2% dip by the options for next week or something like that. But to think, okay, we went down 3%, 2%, let me dip my toe in here. Let's see what happens, but let's do it with shares or non-leveraged bets or iBit or actually buying Bitcoin. And then let's, you know, see what happens and be able to put in some more money and doing it for things that are months out, if you're looking at options or even in some cases, you know, years out, because I do think that this bubble still has quite a room to run. Now, when you look at that volatility, I'm always reminded of like embrace volatility, like seek it out. And it does feel like the younger generation definitely sees value

in that. One of the things that I find very interesting is gold is down 8% in two days. Usually when that happens to Bitcoin, everyone screams, that's not a store of value. What are you guys talking about? It's down 8%. Maybe the volatility actually tells you where there is life, where there's energy in the market. And that is where ultimately, if you have attention, if you have energy capital will flow and there's not a um a problem in investors portfolio of too much volatility it's actually the opposite too many people around the world don't have enough volatility in their portfolio and so what you're finding is investors are seeking it out which is counterintuitive and so is that part of the reason why you're seeing these assets that have this

volatility just capital seems to be attracted to them whether it's bitcoin gold you know tech stocks, whatever. Exactly. And I think you've got to, in a weird way, sometimes in my mind, I work back a little bit from my longer term narrative that I believe in. And I think what needs to happen if that narrative is going to hold true? If I truly believe in the debasement narrative, if I truly believe that equities, because we have so much capital sloshing around the system, that money just can't be sitting in T-bills, you know, that people need to put money into, whether it's Bitcoin, gold, equities, they need to allocate it, private equity, venture capital, they need to allocate it somewhere. We are running massive deficits around the world,

even though the deficit was slightly down in this latest fiscal year, it still was over $1.7 trillion. So where does this capital ultimately going to end up? It's going to end up in the capital markets. If that's my long-term narrative, then what needs to happen? Well, you need to see on dips, they eventually recover. And you also are going to see rotation. And that's what we see happening time and time again, is this capital has to find a home. A lot of the short-term money in the last month or two went into gold and silver, as well as some of the quantum and nuclear stocks. That money, the profit-taking is happening as we speak, and it might not be completely redeployed yet. But when I look around, I think, where's the best place to redeploy it?

I see it being redeployed into those assets that have been consolidating this summer, things like a Microsoft and especially Bitcoin. It just makes sense. And so if that's my long-term narrative, how does that eventually work out? That's how it works out. Now, if something shakes me out of my long-term narrative, you know, and there are potential things on the horizon, you know, whether it could be civil unrest, whether it could be a socialist democratic front runner for president in early 2027, we're going to start hearing a lot about that. So there are things that can disrupt this long-term narrative, but as long as that long-term narrative is still in place for me and I see it as such for at least the next 12 months or so, then what needs to happen? And

true enough, I mean, I've seen it happen, you know, time and time again this year, whether it was when people were all nervous about the Iran bombing or different things, you've just seen the capital flow back in. And I think, like I said earlier, the institutions are not as allocated as they want and need to be, especially to this AI move. As you and Jordi do a great job of spelling out, this is the biggest thing going on right now. And to look at something like subprime car loans and think that's going to destroy the market when you literally have trillions of AI investment going on, subprime car loans are just not the same thing as housing in 2008, no matter how much the doom and gloomers want them to be. So I think what we're doing is we're working our wall of

worry. We're getting through a consolidation period. We have this volatility ahead of all these big events that I listed, like the Xi-Trump meeting, et cetera. And once we get past that, it's the long-term narrative that I have says, you know, we move to the top of our up channels. And the thing that's farthest from the top of its up channel for me is Bitcoin right now. From your mouth to God's ears, my friend. Bitcoin going higher is the message I heard. Where can we send people to find you on the internet? MelMadison1 on Twitter or X.

And I also have a website, melmadison.com. And I have a book that deals with some of these things called Quaz, a financial thriller that's available wherever books are sold and in an audible version if people like that. So I really appreciate you having me and thanks for the time, Pom. You're one of the best macro minds out there.

I appreciate the time. We'll do it again soon.