The Pomp Podcast - The 2026 Playbook: Bitcoin & A.I. | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: January 3, 2026

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the key lessons from 2025 and what to w...atch in 2026. We cover the assets and trends shaping the next cycle, the rapid impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, GDP, economic growth, and how individuals can use these tools to create more value in their work and lives. We also dive into bitcoin, AI’s role in markets, and practical takeaways you can apply immediately.=======================CFO Silvia: https://www.cfosilvia.com/=======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (⁠http://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp⁠), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! ⁠http://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp⁠ Disclosures: Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================This podcast is sponsored by Abra.com. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account structure.Learn more at http://www.abra.com.=======================Timestamps:0:00 – Intro1:49 – 2025 market recap and biggest lessons14:47 – 2026 outlook: can GDP growth accelerate?21:30 – 2026 asset outlook: stocks, commodities, crypto28:45 – How to use AI to make better decisions and investing ideas33:36 – Silvia tax/parenting use cases and better portfolio construction with AI40:41 – Karpathy’s tweet: AI is changing programming49:17 – Building apps and tools with AI and the importance of curiosity + persistence1:00:56 – 2026 prediction: task-specific AI agents1:05:06 – Health, longevity, and Jordi’s new Substack

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano many of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them
Starting point is 00:00:42 for hours while i ask questions in an effort to learn so it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast my goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's the
Starting point is 00:01:24 biggest risk for next year. There's no sign of anything going on. So the only thing people can hang on is the AI bubble. I think that feeds into Bitcoin as well, because I don't worry about years like this when we have back to back 100 percent years in Bitcoin and then we have a horrible year where it's down six percent. I'm not worried about Bitcoin going forward. What I am worried about is. What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser to kick off the new year. We talk about what happened in 2025, what our big takeaways were, what we expect to happen in 2026, which assets we're keeping an eye on. And then we go deep down the AI rabbit hole and how it relates not only to Bitcoin, but also productivity, GDP, and what you can do in your
Starting point is 00:02:05 personal life to use these tools to become more productive and create more value for yourself. This is a very deep conversation into actionable things, things that you will actually take away and want to implement today. I hope you enjoy my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, I figured before we get into 2026 and what we think is going to happen there, let's do a little recap of 2025. I think stocks, people are really excited. It seems to have done pretty well. Bitcoin, I think people were disappointed. Gold, obviously, crushed. And everyone who's holding gold and silver thinks that they're the genius of the year. But what's your take in terms of financial markets and assets looking back over the last 12 months?
Starting point is 00:02:44 I think the story for last year is the fact that people, again, underestimated artificial intelligence. And we spent the year worried about it. It started in January at the inauguration when DeepSeek came out. I think that kind of shaped the first six weeks of the year. Then we had the tariffs. Everyone freaked out about that. So if you take those two events, the key thing was, did we overreact to DeepSeek? Yes. Did we overreact to tariffs? Yes. If you put them both aside, the reality is it's really hard sometimes to look back. I used to always use a poker tournament. If anyone's watched a poker tournament, you never forget or you never remember how you won a poker tournament if you're playing in it, because some of the best things are the
Starting point is 00:03:31 things you chose not to do. And I think for this year, if people are really going to be honest, never migrating to AI as a bubble, it's probably the best decision people made because most of the names that outperformed were related to artificial intelligence. And I think that's the important lesson for last year is for everything that got caught up, bonds are going to collapse. Tariffs are going to take us down. There's going to be inflation. Whatever you want to use, the key thing was artificial intelligence is the most important advancement in our lifetimes. And it's going to have another huge year for the market this year. So I don't know if this is actually true or not, but I've heard it enough times and I've repeated
Starting point is 00:04:10 it. So I'm going to assume it's true, but I think it was Fidelity did a study. And in the study, they looked at who performed best out of all their clients. And the two groups were people who had lost their password or people who had passed away. And just this whole idea of like, don't touch the account. It does feel like in 2025, if you look back at every single thing that you mentioned, plus a plethora of other things people got worried about, it was like an above average return year, right? I mean, gold obviously did really well. Bitcoin didn't do as well, but the stock market came in, you know, above kind of the historical performance levels. And so you just look at like the compounding. And in a weird way,
Starting point is 00:04:48 I do wonder how much of the audience that listens to podcasts, watches TV, reads the news, et cetera, they fall victim to the human desire for control and to do something. And tariffs are coming. I must be smarter than the market. Let me sell before it falls type thing. In a world of AI, how do you resist that human nature and use these tools, use this, you know, kind of understand that AI is happening, but also realize like maybe actually doing nothing may be the best thing for your portfolio. Yeah, there's another part of that.
Starting point is 00:05:22 And you said something which got thrown in that blender of your question or in your comment, which is this wasn't a huge year for stocks. The NDX was only up 20%. The S&P was up about 17%. So NDX normally has a higher beta to the S&P. So this wasn't like some kind of bubble type year based on what we heard. The alpha that was generated was a combination of, okay, I don't believe AI is a bubble,
Starting point is 00:05:49 but then it was also taking advantages of these fears. The one thing as we end this year, Deutsche Bank had this, there was a post in X and I saw the chart and I showed it on my video two weeks ago. and I'm going to do it again this week because I think the point of it was valid. What's the biggest risk for next year? At 57%, it was AI, AI bubble. And number two, I think was like 9%. So it wasn't just that it was the biggest one. It was that in the years of doing this, they've never seen such a wide gap between it. And I think that's because the economy is growing the last two quarters at close to 4%. Unbelievable. Number two, inflation is headed down. Gas at the
Starting point is 00:06:36 pump is going down. The Fed is cutting rates. Profit margins are at all-time highs, and earnings are expected to be double digits next year. We have stimulus coming in Q1. So there's not a lot to be bearish about in terms of the structural part. You've got credit spreads at all-time tights. There's no sign of anything going on. So the only thing people can hang on is the AI bubble. And what I think that means for this year is, and honestly, the next few years, AI is a very, very polarizing thing. There are negatives that come associated with it. You have to spend tons of money.
Starting point is 00:07:11 Great. Are you going to get the revenues in the door? Number two, is it going to take all of our jobs? There's going to be a negative theme because both of those are valid, meaning we don't know when the revenues are coming in to offset the CapEx by the companies. At the same time, we know jobs are going to be impacted by it. Do we have enough power for it? These are questions that will never be answered, in my opinion. This will be a continuous theme for the next few years. And so I think people have to get comfortable with
Starting point is 00:07:36 number one, AI is not a bubble. Number two, when we get the inevitable fears that will probably happen two or three times a year, are you in a position to take advantage of the fears? And have you become, you know, you got to stay with the we're going to eventually be down here type thing. I think that feeds into Bitcoin as well, because I don't worry about years like this, when we had back-to-back 100% years in Bitcoin, and then we have a horrible year where it's down 6%. I'm not worried about Bitcoin going forward. What I am worried about is doing something stupid
Starting point is 00:08:08 along the pathway to getting there. You know, what's interesting is, was the bubble worth it in 1999 and 2000? That question, I actually don't think that there is widespread consensus on the answer. I think there will be plenty of people who say, this was completely wasteful. Look at all these businesses that went out. Look at all the capital that was destroyed, blah, blah, blah, whatever. And kind of the cynic or critic view of that
Starting point is 00:08:34 whole thing. And then obviously the optimist will say, what are you talking about? The internet got built and look at all these amazing things and Amazon and Google and blah, blah, blah, whatever. So we're talking about 25 years after there is still not consensus on whether the bubble was worth it or not. You're definitely not going to get agreement while you're going through any sort of investment cycle, right? So I think there's like your point about like, you're never going to get to an agreement. 25 years later, you're still not going to have an agreement. The second thing is, I've been thinking a lot about what is a bubble? A bubble really is something in many people's eyes, I think that you get overextended, you get overvalued, and there's some sort of
Starting point is 00:09:13 correction. People say the bubble popped, right? When they talk about the dot-com bubble is it popped. Now, that is a very short-term oriented view on that industry. I think what Bitcoin taught a lot of people, an entire generation, frankly, is there are cycles, but those cycles don't necessarily mean it is a bubble. And so you can go up a couple hundred percent, you can drop 80%, but if it keeps doing that and you keep going higher and higher and higher, and you go from a penny to $100,000, well, that didn't really look like a bubble. That looks like something that was very volatile on its way to substantial growth that kind of feels like what the stock market is now it's much more volatile it has these kind of you know faster um kind of accelerations
Starting point is 00:09:54 it has these drawdowns at 20 you know for tariffs etc but you kind of just know it's going to go up into the right over the long run because of the monetary policy and the structural you know tailwind and so what's the worst that happens right is as long as you're not betting your entire net worth on a single name, if this thing goes up really high and then it crashes 50%, well, you're probably still better off than if you didn't participate. It's like the old George Soros, like when there's a bubble, I rush in, right? It does feel like that is now becoming part of the whole like retail by the dip mentality. Here's an interesting thing, again, about what you asked and what triggered in my mind.
Starting point is 00:10:35 And I've written about this over the years, but not recently. But I think it's an important thing for people to hear because I think your comment about an AI bubble, I'm going to basically tell everyone to think of how they view their children as they grow up. In 1992, 1993, I guess it was 1994 when Netscape came out, the youngest baby boomer was 30 years old. So you have to think about that. Youngest baby boomer. I'm just outside baby boomer. When the dot-com bubble happened, you're in like the massive earnings years of the youngest baby boomer. Now, the reason that's important is because the baby boomers control the world's
Starting point is 00:11:18 money. Their parents were depression babies. So the wealth and the spending is a baby boomer thing. They've been spending. They want to go hardcore. This is not World War II, depression, our grandparents type world. And the reason that's important is because they were young and full of money when the dot-com bubble happened. So it was over-enthusiasm. It was, I'm bulletproof. This is the future, and I'm going to get involved, and I'm going to make lots of money. And that's when the greed and arrogance fit in. There is an age factor to this. Now, the reason I brought up people's children is that's the way your kids are when they're 16, 17, 18. Before they go off to college, they're going to dominate the world. It's hard to talk
Starting point is 00:11:58 to them. They've got hormones are flashing. Everything's gone. That's what the dot-com bubble was. It was just over-enthusiasm led to overvaluation. Well, now you fast forward 25 years, those baby boomers truly control the world's wealth, massive wealth distributed in very few hands. And they're at a different stage now. AI and technology have reached this point. There's no bubble because they're not this young group borrowing money to go invest it. There's no borrowing happening except for the CapEx companies, which have the cash to do it. There's no housing bubble. There's no like debt fueled thing that, again, is about the future. So I view this whole thing as being a situation where the people who control the money use AI the least. The people
Starting point is 00:12:43 control the money don't believe in Bitcoin. This is a different situation than 1994. The handoff that's coming is the money's leaving that group and going to the younger group, which may not have it now, but they're getting a little bit of it every day that comes in and they actually are going to have that enthusiasm that is the retail traders that you and i get to know those are the people in their 30s that are actively involved and they get called gamblers and the dot-com bubble was a gambling time these kids are not gamblers they are trying to make the wealth that they feel they're entitled to so you're making the argument that in the 90s uh the people who ended up adopting the technology were also the people with the money it just might have taken a little bit
Starting point is 00:13:23 longer what you're saying here is almost uh the opposite is going to happen which is the people who are adopting the technology are eventually going to suck the money into their demographic from whether it's older people in this whole kind of wealth transition, but also they're the ones using these tools who are going to go and be able to make money. And so it all kind of coalesces in the hands of the people who harness the technology. Yeah. And again, I've brought up Joseph Schumpeter before, but if you really go through the fourth turning in Joseph Schumpeter and you bring all these things together, it gets into the generational shifting points again. The reason the generational shifting points eventually leads to socialism is because the people boomers have
Starting point is 00:13:59 tons of money they're giving handouts to their kids they're it's it's a very different thing so the reason the world is expensive for people is not just that the government keeps printing the money to help keep the distribution of wealth from leading to a revolution it's the fact that this generational shift the money's already being handed down by fine i know you can't live in new york but your job's there i'll subsidize you and i'll give you some money which keeps the economy going and keeps it going in this point, but it doesn't make people happier. You get socialists in cities, you get the things spreading out in terms of the changes. So I think all of these things get linked back, but this negativity or this, I'm not happy, which is what shows up in
Starting point is 00:14:38 all the consumer confidence numbers. This is what allows people to invest and to trade from an opportunistic basis. It's the reason why at the end of the day, I associate Bitcoin completely with the demographic shift that is happening, meaning we need a new system that's more fair. That part I get. The second part is that AI is forcing us faster and faster to get to that point where the demographics and everything speeds up because the older, wealthier people are not using it. And the younger people are going to keep using it more and more. And they're going to start to develop the power and they're going to start making more money. So it's just a question of going through the fourth turning. It's very painful. And I think it's going to continue for
Starting point is 00:15:13 the next four or five years before we, I guess, reach a better point. So 2025, the numbers are in, right? It's in stone. We can't go back and change that. 2026, I think there's a lot of people looking forward. And maybe one of the things that I see the biggest disconnect between, I'll just call them kind of the bulls and the bears, the optimists and the pessimists. There's definitely some controversy as to what is going to happen is this belief of an economic boom or GDP growth, if you will. Right now, GDP has been growing around 4%. And we recently got a number of different people. Howard Letnick was on television towards the end of the year talking about he thinks GDP could be 6%. Elon Musk came out and said that he thinks that GDP could be double digits
Starting point is 00:15:58 and potentially triple digits. These are massive numbers compared to the average in the United States for the last 60 to 80 years has been somewhere in the like 3.2% range. So we're talking about maybe the least optimistic of the optimist is saying that it's double the historic average. And then you've got people who obviously are saying 10 plus percent. If we look at GDP growth, that is probably one of the major inputs in my mind as to what's going to happen in these asset prices. And so what is your expectation, right? I mean, this AI thing, it can't be a coincidence that we are talking about increases in productivity, increases in efficiency, and GDP is growing. It seems like that is a direct impact, and that is why GDP is over 4% right now.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Yeah. So the GDP over 4%, I think we still have to be careful about a couple of things. I think everyone who follows the economy at, say, a very signal level as opposed to including the noise, because the reality is inventory cycles and trade cycles are noise. They go up, they go down. So if you just do final sales, we're consistently right now at 3%. And we've been that way. We just had a quarter that was 3%. The quarter before was 3%.
Starting point is 00:17:17 The actual GDP number got up to 4.3. Last quarter was 3 point something. So we are, in terms of, I think, the way that people read in the paper, we're close to 4. But the reality is we're just stone cold growing at a very consistent number. I have two angles on this. And I think this year is a really important one. And I actually think the Elon Musk post is important for people to think about. So I've talked extensively about how GDP, you start with a calculation which is not
Starting point is 00:17:51 made for this world. It's just not. The intangible part of the economy, meaning efficiency and productivity, it just doesn't fit in this mindset. For us to have really big GDP the way it's calculated, are we going to have a lot of housing sales? Are we going to have a lot of auto sales? Because of demographics, because of things, I don't think we're going to have some huge boom. So it has to come from the intangible side. Now, there's two intangibles. I do believe productivity and efficiency are going to accelerate this year because of what we've talked about, which people have to just accept. Going forward, companies will not be hiring people the way that they did. So let's think about the jobs number.
Starting point is 00:18:35 Forget what you think the jobs number should be. The reality is we have created less than 40,000 jobs a month for the last, I guess it's five months now. And it's overstated, which means let's assume it's zero. let's assume there's been no job creation, but that happened in two quarters where GDP was basically 4%. So if you're not hiring people, but you're growing, regardless of immigration, regardless of AI, don't get into the thing. Just say there's no hiring going on, which shows up on everything. By definition, that means productivity is expanding. If you're not
Starting point is 00:19:12 hiring people and revenues are still going at 8%, 9%, profit margins are expanding, that's productivity. And then GDP, which doesn't necessarily capture it, it's going to show it. So I believe without any doubt, we are not going to be seeing job creation the way we had in the past, but we're still going to grow. So that means we are going to see productivity and GDP gains. The other thing is with stable coins starting to advance and with AI agents plugging in, you're going to see more volumes, which Caitlin Long has talked about. I've written about it multiple times now. I think it's a brilliant commentary by a woman who's brilliant in terms of thinking about the financial system, more volumes, because transactions are happening more,
Starting point is 00:19:51 there's more efficiency going on. There's less friction. Exactly. There's going to be a higher velocity of money. And if there's a higher velocity of money, that leads to more GDP. So I think those two factors are going to come, which is going to make this feel, without it being some hiring boom, it's going to show up in profit margins. It's going to show up in stock prices going up still. But I think those are the two places where GDP is going to be. It's it's a very weird situation because normally you get more GDP from hiring more people who spend more money, taking more debt. That's not going to be the case this time. See, but I keep coming back to this idea of like, again, it goes back to this question of is the United States hiring
Starting point is 00:20:27 more people or not? Right. And when you first get asked that question, you think of, well, how many humans have a job versus last quarter, last year, last month, whatever, whether people like it or not, whether it's good for people, you know, all the, all the like caveats. There are more quote unquote workers in the U.S. economy today than ever before. It just happens to be that a growing percentage of them are digital. I mean, I hired this weekend six different people. They just happen to be AI agent, you know, digital workers that are all now doing different tasks for me. And some of them were quote unquote like off the shelf. And two of them i built and so you say to yourself wait a second here by the way they're not replacing like
Starting point is 00:21:13 full-time work so you know you have to kind of normalize for okay well maybe three of them together would be the equivalent of one person whatever but that to me again goes back to it's not in the gdp calculations it also i don't think we have a good handle of how many ai agents let's just, you know, as a generalized term, are working per human in the U.S. economy right now. Is that number 0.1 or is that number three? I know where it's headed, higher. But when you start to measure that, I go to the Amazon. Like, I think Amazon's latest numbers were two-thirds of their workforce are human, but one-third is robots. That'll flip. And so you start to look at this and you just say like, okay, the productivity is coming. It's just
Starting point is 00:21:59 the human element is going to be hurt. And so it brings the question of like, well, how does that impact the asset prices? Right. Okay. We got velocity of money. We got all these things like companies should be making more profit. Let's just go through them. Stocks, Bitcoin, gold. Like what are you excited about in 2026? And, you know, maybe, maybe not like price prediction, but just like, how do you think these different asset classes are going to perform? So again, I think bonds are going to be completely uninvestable. If you're trying to outperform inflation. I just don't think bonds have enough, you're not getting enough cushion in there. So you're going into the year where credit spreads are at all-time tights, where
Starting point is 00:22:38 10-year yields are not too far away from where two-year yields are, where you do have a steepening yield curve, but so far it's just going at a slow pace. Stocks to me are going to see profit margins, but we're also at the acceleration point for me for a lot of businesses that have not participated yet. The adoption phase is going to be massive. And I want to leave this thought into everyone's minds. And I'm sure at some point we'll get into places, specific areas. But when you make a phone call and you sit on hold or you get shuffled off to 17 different numbers before you actually get, or you're screaming representative or whatever it is, those areas are the places where you want to start putting money into. If those businesses have revenues growing, they are going to start
Starting point is 00:23:23 to be using agents more and more every day, which means their profit margins are going to grow. It's not going to be a huge expense to replace people. And so rather than firing, again, this is more about every year where we normally would have hired 2 million people. Just go back. If GDP grows 4% a year, what's the average amount of human beings that we would hire? Well, the number is now headed to zero, which means 2 million people times $50,000 a year on on the aggregate, we're talking huge numbers of productivity gains, not including the ones that we can reduce to go through it. So I do think stocks are just going to have another good year. And it's not just in the US, it's globally. I believe this is going to be a broadening out
Starting point is 00:24:04 of AI now. It's not just the adopters. It's also the physical side because we're running into the constraints. In terms of commodities, I think they're going to do well. Not all of them the same, but there's a reason why gold and silver are going higher. Gold got the head start because of central bank purchase, but also because people that doubt the system. And I think we're going to continue to have this AI debate on things. I don't want to talk about the long term at this point, but let's just say I think the commodity side is going to remain durable. I think we will have some worries about natural gas and about copper and silver in terms of running out of supply. Elon Musk brought up silver as, hey, this would be a real problem if
Starting point is 00:24:45 running out of silver. So I think that's going to be fine. And then when you go outside of it, I do think crypto is going to lead the way this year because I think it's directly correlated with the agents. And like I wrote last year, I believe Bitcoin has gone through something that needed to happen. And crypto in general, which is when there's an investment situation like AI, where people think they can 10 bag something in a year or two years, why would the people that have made billions of dollars in this for the same reason, who don't believe in the ideological side of ETFs and the government being more involved. And the more the government gets more involved and is actually sponsoring it, we want out. I think it makes sense for people to be taking
Starting point is 00:25:28 chips off the table. And I think it's held in there extremely well with that going on. And as I put in the next post, once we start to get a breakout, I think crypto will be the best performing asset this year. Today's episode is brought to you by figure looking for the best way to unlock your crypto's liquidity my friends at figure are exactly what you need being the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the united states with over 19 billion dollars unlocked on their lending platform explore their industry low crypto backed loans at 8.91 interest rates and 50 ltv they differentiate themselves by offering decentralized mpc custody which protects your crypto ownership in a segregated wallet
Starting point is 00:26:02 they've also recently launched liquidation protection which protects you from liquidation during large price drops whether you're funding a major purchase like a down payment on a home investing in new opportunities or even buying more bitcoin figure makes it a straightforward and transparent process visit their app or click the link in the description below to take out a crypto backed loan with figure today and um bitcoin or you've talked in the past about maybe some other assets that you keep your eye on how do you look at crypto in general or is it Just like, it's all one big trade to you. Because PMIs to me, if I was going to pick one thing that I feel very, very certain of relative to Ajita and where people are, it's the physical upgrade that is coming this year.
Starting point is 00:26:50 So we talk about digital workers. Digital workers to me are physical. And I'll give you a little explanation why. and this is in kind of my outlook piece, which is everyone has to start to understand the difference between what they use on their phone with an LLM and if a company starts to have AI agents. AI agents can't be in the cloud. They have to be on site. There has to be the infrastructure necessary. So when we go back to the dot-com bubble conversation, that was building out the bandwidth necessary for what eventually came with mobile. Like we couldn't do what we do on our
Starting point is 00:27:28 phones now without having the dot-com bubble. That's why you say, was it worth it? Of course it was worth it because we needed the bandwidth. We just over-invested in the companies that would go through it through the VC world. Now we're at a different point, which is if a big company like Morgan Stanley, where I used to work, wants to have agents and digital workers, they're worried about having it go to the cloud because that's less secure. So they want to have it on site. Well, to have it on site, you're going backwards from the cloud. The cloud was a big investment over the course of the last decade. Well, now if we need to have servers and we need to have routers and we need to have security
Starting point is 00:28:02 and everything on site to deal with the agents working 24 hours to where we don't have to worry as much about cyber, all of that stuff becomes on premise. The edge is going to be a theme going forward. And the edge is about physical things. So for me, when the PMIs are going higher, historically, all coins have outperformed. the ecosystem of crypto has done better. So I expect this year to be a typical year based on the history of crypto, which is Bitcoin will do exceptionally well. The beta names will do better this year. And the reason is because the PMIs will go higher and money supply and all the things that
Starting point is 00:28:38 people have kind of thought about will continue to go. But I do want to make one point on the money supply because I hear this a lot. Think about the velocity again. I really do believe that people are underestimating this Caitlin Long theme of once we start getting AI agents making decisions and money flowing in a faster pace, the investors of the world are going to start focusing more on the crypto side. And I just believe you're going to have a lot of new investors focus on the space as a 10-bagger space again. And that doesn't exist right now. And I think once you get people in that, which maybe takes another six months, I think that'll be a theme for next year as well i am uh i'm an investor in a company that this is their whole focus is
Starting point is 00:29:19 agentic payments and um i don't know what i'm allowed to share or not uh so maybe what i can say is like it is shocking to see uh the interest like the you know from these uh large companies where everyone is convinced this is going to be a thing right um one other thing that uh maybe before we get to Karpathy's tweet and stuff like that, I saw another tweet where they were talking about AI models and their performance in financial markets. And somebody basically said, I recently told folks that getting a job
Starting point is 00:29:56 at a major hedge fund may not be the thing that you want to go after because these models are going to be able to do it, blah, blah, blah, whatever. And I saw somebody respond to that and he works at a kind of high frequency type fund. And he was like, listen, the beauty of financial markets is, like, the best, you know, system wins, right? So, like, if that is true, then they're going to take all the profit.
Starting point is 00:30:16 I think Silicon Valley just, like, underestimates how cutthroat competition the hedge funds have been in from a technology standpoint for decades. And so, it really got me thinking about, you know, maybe that's actually the best place for these models to prove, like, how effective they can be is can you put it into the market and win? Right. And if you can do that, like that may be the, the prize. And there's been rumors that, um, was it, uh, uh, super intelligence, I think SSI, uh, that the company, um, that, uh, the guy started when, when he left, um, SSI now reportedly is playing around with their models in the market. And so you're just like, if you really do truly have super intelligence, like that may be a use case. again i i think it already happens more than people realize um so one of the things about artificial intelligence that i want people to to separate because at the dinner at after your event when i sat and talked with younger people they wouldn't be considered in any way shape or fashion quant people my son is is a sophomore in college he's been working on a system that I've helped him in terms of the idea, has no quant. He's not a quant. He's creative. He's an
Starting point is 00:31:42 artist. And I think the artistry and just knowing how to use AI is separating from quant. So I do want people to understand that my goal for this year personally with helping people understand how to use AI fits directly into this. I brought up two books that I'm going to emphasize many times this year one is the mcraven book make your bed which is you have to start using ai every single day i'm going to show people different ways to do that but the second one is the any book book thinking in bets what ai allows you to do is make better decisions it also will build things for you which is kind of what a quant model theoretically would be but now with the capability of saying hey i want to find 10 stocks to invest in the way that i want you to do this
Starting point is 00:32:29 is i want it to meet these technical criteria i want you to use yahoo finance for that i also want it to be i want you to go scrape off of twitter the most trending ideas that people are talking about okay that is very simple to do in grok grok gets you the twitter side my son did it with apis both through through x and through reddit and it ends up being a momentum portfolio but you can put the things are to say i want it to be momentum but only on a three-month basis or a four-month basis i want it to be stuff that people haven't found yet so i want to find the new ideas not the old ideas and i want you to do your ability to just verbally speak and get used to that allows you to compete with hedge funds it allows you to find ideas faster the edge
Starting point is 00:33:14 in this if you use ai is to find things real time it's to listen to a podcast immediately turn it into ideas this the the weakness in the hedge fund industry for non you know billion dollar budgets at this point for technology are the gap between ideas. And if you're in a crowded trade, that is like the problem. You want to find something before everyone else does. The risk reward changes once you're in something that everyone else is in, particularly where people are so fearful and they're measured on a month to month basis. I think for individuals at home, they're not in a month to month basis, so they can ride these things. Number two, if there's a fall, they can be patient, but then jump in again, which is what I heard a lot at the dinner. And I think those are
Starting point is 00:33:54 the edges that people are getting from AI, which is not a quant side, but it is not having to manage money relative to some benchmark or month to month where you have these arbitrary things, which I think are going to force you out of things more and more. Yeah. I never do this, but I'm going to share a couple of things that we've seen on Sylvia. So for those that don't know, the Sylvia product is, it's basically taking proprietary AI agents, general purpose models, and it allows you to ask questions with the context of your personal portfolio, right? So if you think of a man has recently got bought by Facebook, the whole idea was context plus agents gives you an advantage. This is the same thing. The context of your
Starting point is 00:34:31 financial life plus proprietary agents, you go in, you ask questions of Sylvia. So we can give you all kinds of crazy answers. There are three examples recently that I saw. Um, I'm not going to say whether there were people on our team, people outside me, whoever, but just these are examples that happened in the product one uh which was not somebody on our team um was uh an individual went in and basically asked uh something to the effect of give me ideas for taxes at the end of the year what can i do to address my taxes they got back a bunch of different um you know suggestions one of them was to create a defined benefit plan that would save them or would give them i think it was like a 200 or 300 000 tax deduction for the year and the way that they
Starting point is 00:35:22 communicated with us on this was uh i didn't even know that existed right i mean just like it's not like uh oh tax loss harvest like people know it's out there but like maybe you can find it whatever like just out of left field type idea like okay it's like super intelligence being applied another one um i recently tweeted about is uh if you have young kids if you're a parent asking hey i want to set up my young kids for success financially over the long run what should i be doing today and there's you know the 529 plans and like kind of some basic stuff that people know there's a lot of things now that are available that people just don't know yeah but the thing that i find most valuable is when people go in and they specifically ask what you're talking about around um i'm
Starting point is 00:36:03 looking for investments that fit a certain criteria that maybe uh i want to be really risk on or risk off or whatever. But then talk to me about portfolio construction. And so any of the models can go and they can find you, you know, the ideas and kind of what you're talking about with Grok. But what I've been blown away by is if all of a sudden they say, hey, you know what, you got a lot of tech stocks, this should actually be a smaller percentage of your portfolio because there's all these correlations and this stuff, right? And as I've asked Sylvia a couple times on this one of the things that i find so fascinating is i'll just ask her why is the percentage that is being explained so low and then all of a sudden she'll talk about correlation
Starting point is 00:36:44 oh shit i got my maybe a little bit more concentration risk than i thought right and so it almost goes back to this idea of i think people are talking about this like vibe coding you know and like you're almost talking like a really smart friend it can just keep asking it why are you doing this or how do i do this or whatever when that comes to finance and you know we hope Sylvia will be one of those products. But now all of a sudden you're learning more about finance while also improving your portfolio or your capital allocation, et cetera.
Starting point is 00:37:13 Like your son will be an exponentially better investor over time because he has this, you know, kind of a co-pilot to go through allocating capital in a way that you, I, and many people listening to this just didn't have at a young age. and so we didn't get the benefit of that compounding yeah so first of all let's go the root of sylvia in terms of what you said with regards to ai and make sure that this point uh becomes evident to people because it is probably the thing that is starting to
Starting point is 00:37:43 it's starting to take my brain into areas that i never thought with ai was i i always like the, the exploration of an idea. So let's expand on what you said and go back to the famous Freddie at the dinner who basically said that when the one big, beautiful bill came out, he looked for the changes that were happening that he could take advantage in his savings life and his investing life. There were two people there, ex Goldman Sachs, who were interested in what he had to say. And that thought process was he uploads something, he asks it, and now he has all these areas that he's getting immediately. Yes. And I forget how many pages the one big beautiful bill was, but it was a lot of pages. They don't write short bills. You can't possibly
Starting point is 00:38:35 stay on top of everything. AI allows you to, if you ask the questions. I want to bring this up with my son. So I believe the two things that people don't spend enough time on in their life is truly understanding the investment decisions that they're making. And number two, understanding their health. They go to doctors and they get advice. They have a financial advisor, but they don't actually know that much about them.
Starting point is 00:38:58 With AI, if you learn either one of them, they both get easier. And the reason is because they're both biological. Meaning if you make this decision to your portfolio construction is no different than, hey, what's your diet? What are you eating every day? A doctor asks you that and you give some answer.
Starting point is 00:39:14 you that's not the true answer it's not true because you can't possibly remember it all if you just upload into ai every single day at the end of the day this is what i had today this is what i had today this is what i had today and you keep that as a as a as a journal and then you say hey here's i got my blood work done what would i have to change with my diet to make my blood work you just had something far more powerful than a doctor because when you go get blood work done he doesn't know or she doesn't know what you put in and so the ability of having ai be on top of these things. Once you understand it for your portfolio, for portfolio construction, you should have a lower weight in this, an increased weight in this. Okay, great. Then you do it for your
Starting point is 00:39:51 blood work. You're getting two separate things that are both very similar. And if you want to live a healthy life for a long time and not age, as you know, I am very fixated on, I think you have to use the tool in this way. And I think finances and health are a great way to bridge that. And that's the way that I would, I'm going to spend time explaining to people this entire year, how they can make the connection between the two. But you will be much happier in life if your investment portfolio is healthy and your body's healthy. 100%. I would love feedback from people of how they find this stuff because we were talking beforehand. One of the beauties of AI or one of the advantages is almost knowing how to communicate with the AI or knowing how to,
Starting point is 00:40:33 you know, the hacks, if you will. So people go just CFO, Sylvia, S-I-L-V-I-A. We'll put a link in the description. If you go there and you find like really interesting prompts, tell us because then we can use them. But also I think that you can start to port them. So like if you learn a really good prompt or angle of how to communicate with AI in finance, almost always you can take it and apply it to health or to some other aspect. It's less about the context of that one vertical and it's much more about this is the way to communicate with this machine. And maybe you and i at some point we'll we'll write down all of our great prompts that we have and and uh and share with people um let's talk about karpathy's tweet uh i think that as soon it was like the shot
Starting point is 00:41:18 heard around the world he puts out and so for those that don't know uh karpathy i think was the director of ai um or basically he ran artificial intelligence at tesla he's one of the people who is probably most responsible for self-driving uh inside of these teslas and um in this post, he basically says, I've got a couple of the points that he says here, but he basically says that he feels behind. I mean, this is one of the best programmers in the world. And his thing is, he says, I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. The profession is being dramatically refactored as the bits contributed by the programmer are increasingly sparse and between. I have a sense that I could be 10x more powerful if I just properly string together what has become
Starting point is 00:41:56 available over the last approximate year. And a failure to claim the boost feels decidedly like skill issue now that also led to a whole conversation with a couple of people and in that thread uh maybe one of the most interesting comments was this guy boris who is uh the impetus for claude code which now people have been using he claims that for the last 30 days every single commit that he has had for claude code was written by claude code meaning that again one of the top programmers in the world is saying i didn't write any of the code quote-unquote by hand the machine wrote it i oversaw it i approved it i you know i did certain things that that what you would consider as more of a manager these are the best people in the world you and i
Starting point is 00:42:42 being you know quote-unquote non-technical and having this everyone's okay it's a zero to one that's impactful nobody expects carpathy to be like hey the machine is better than me So my question to you, is this AGI? It's certainly one thing. Things are moving far faster than even the people most involved in the space can believe. Karpathy spoke on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in October, and it got news. It was one of those weekends that I got like five different hedge fund managers saying, hey, is this a problem?
Starting point is 00:43:23 He's saying AGI won't happen for another 10 years. He's saying AI agents are not coming next year. Is this a problem? So his comment on Dwarkash is that the enthusiasm is there. It's a great product. Like he really was, I would say, putting people to say, whoa, slow down a little bit. So when you connect this one back to this one, and if people don't believe me, Just type into your favorite LLM, hey, Karpathy spoke, he posted this, and he spoke on Dwarkesh.
Starting point is 00:43:54 What does this say? What's your interpretation of the speed? And the interpretation is we have reached a point of exponential innovation on AI where it's getting better and better at such fast pace. During this year, if you would have taken out at the beginning of the year, we talked about Cursor, then we talked about Replit, we talked about Windsurf and Lovable and all of these code things. They all use Claude Code.
Starting point is 00:44:16 I mean, every one that I used them on, it was Claude Code behind the scenes or Claude in general. And by the way, most of these, I mean, Replit had been around, Lovable, Manus, a lot of these, they didn't exist two years ago. Yeah. No, no, no. These are companies that grew extremely fast. I just want people to understand that I've used data scientists in some framework since 1998 when I was in Brazil. They weren't data scientists. There was no, this was not, hey, build me something in C++, but this was something where I was building stuff either through Visual Basic in Excel or something along those lines where I always had someone to try and make my creativity
Starting point is 00:44:57 show up in technical work. Anything that I wanted that I thought was useful information, I would have them build it. We've now reached a point where the ability for me to do this, and it happened yesterday. I built something yesterday, which I'll show briefly on the video tomorrow. I can build tools that don't exist in Bloomberg that are very complex, where all I'm doing is taking something that really smart people built and have in an open source library like GitHub. I'm having Claude go out and get it. And I watch this thing write the code. And you and I had a conversation before. You want to get better in certain things. You want to learn a little bit about what I did. What I can absolutely say to everyone is if you take
Starting point is 00:45:44 one Coursera course over the weekend. It'll take you four hours, maybe five. And all you want it to do is the basics of Python, which really is not coding. You just want to understand what an editor is, how you bring it up. And then once you've done that and downloaded Python onto your computer, you pretty much can start your journey of building your own apps. And more importantly, you have an idea and you want to build it in code to where it's there. You just ask Claude to do it. This was 400 lines of code to build something I want. And it was done in a matter of minutes. Now, when I went back,
Starting point is 00:46:18 there were a couple of things I didn't like about the visuals and it took me another hour, but it took me no more than 30 minutes to go from, I have this idea verbally, I want to build this. I've wanted it for a long time. I want you to go to GitHub and give me samples of which the three best ones, it gives me this. Okay, use this one, build me my,
Starting point is 00:46:40 exactly what I wanted and it did it. So I think people are just going to have to understand that what Karpathy talked about, he's basically saying to everyone who's a non-coder, he's talking specifically about the programming side and how fast he's falling behind. But I think programming and coding leads into AI agents and more importantly, AGI, self-improvement, all of this stuff. We are closer and closer to that every single day. And there won't be a button, which is why, again, profit margins and GDP next year in terms of efficiency and productivity is going to be the theme. Today's episode is brought to you by Simple Mining. Have you ever been interested in mining Bitcoin? As a miner myself, I've been using Simple Mining for the past few months,
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Starting point is 00:50:02 gemini i was asking questions doing all the things that we normally talk about i went and i sat for a number of hours and you know i set up cursor and i had replet and vercel and lovable and you know i put all this stuff set it all up and uh i started to build very simple things so i literally One of the products is I do a very complex calculation every single day about something. And I said, well, can I just put the four inputs of the calculation and you just do it and send it to me every day at 8 a.m.? Just send me an email. Okay. How long is that going to take?
Starting point is 00:50:35 Well, you start with just in plain English describing, I want a simple website that's going to make this calculation, blah, blah, blah, whatever, right? Within three minutes, it had draft one. And I later was listening to a speech that, or a presentation that Karbethi did at the Y Combinator AI Startup School. And in it, he pulls up one of his most popular tweets ever. And he says, the hottest new programming language is English. And so I tweeted, I said, once you understand what he means by that, you realize the world's never going back. And we basically took this skill that to anyone who wasn't technical, coding was magic. you could talk to a computer in the computer language and you could somehow get things built
Starting point is 00:51:20 now rather than you have to learn the computer's language the computer learned your language and as i started to build some of these products the part maybe that i was most shocked by you naturally run into maybe not dead ends but obstacles well just screenshot your screen and send it and give it to the machine and say, this is what I see. What do I do? Not only does it figure out what's wrong, it then goes start to fix it. And you start to just realize like, actually the thing here from a skill perspective is do you have curiosity and do you have persistence? You mentioned that you ran into a problem and you took an hour. There's a lot of people I think that give up, but if you can have curiosity and persistence with the power of these
Starting point is 00:52:03 tools, what can you not? I don't actually think we could come up with something that we could not build with enough time and persistence. Yeah. So the time and persistence, let's take this a step further. Because the product, the thing that I built, I've actually asked for for a decade. Okay. Crazy. So it's not that the guys who worked for me couldn't do it. There were two problems that came up. Now, maybe more, but let me use what you said. Number one is persistence. If I asked for something as a manager, because I have this idea. You know what would be great? And this is what it is. It's called a turbulence model. And it's using actual math to take the correlations and the volatility of 100 assets. Because what I always believe, like with earthquakes, that
Starting point is 00:52:56 there's a warning system that goes off. The reason I have an aura ring is because I heard that before you're actually feeling the symptoms, the real symptoms of being sick, back then it was from covid your hrv will drop and you'll start to see then the symptoms you'll get your fever you'll get all this stuff but the first thing that happens is your hrv the alarm system the alarm system starts going off and so i was like hey i want an alarm system for the market i just want to see because i do believe that there's so there's a bubble in risk management related to ai meaning there's overlay strategies and stuff which are watching the covariance matrix, which is correlations and volatility of the market. And when it starts to shake,
Starting point is 00:53:39 the S&P could still be going higher for, in this case, it showed me that it takes about 10 days from the first warning to when the S&P started to fall. And not everything is going to be correct, but you want to see when you hit one of those. So to actually do that, there's two components that hurt. One was, okay, I asked for it, but it's not a simple ask. So the time that it would take is they have to code this by hand. They need me to give them the assets because one of the critical components is don't just take random a hundred assets. Think about the a hundred assets that you think are driving the market. Most of these right now are AI related because AI is driving the market. So I had to give them the list of that, but we never got to that point for the
Starting point is 00:54:22 time that you mentioned. With what I did yesterday, the idea came, it was done. We all come up with great ideas. All of us. The problem is if we don't move with them, we forget the ideas and then they're gone. So it's the persistence getting it and there's time. But because AI has gotten so fast and because once you use it all the time, and as I talk about, you have to build a relationship with these LLMs. People don't know what that means. You do once you said, I've been dipping my toe in. If you're dipping your toe in, you're not building a relationship with it. A relationship is one where you use it all the time for everything that you're thinking about, cooking, traveling, everything. If you build a relationship with it, something we talked about before this,
Starting point is 00:55:01 I've kind of realized that there's two types of people. One who are very creative, critical thinkers, and they just know what they want and they say it and they get an output. That's like a Google search mentality, but it takes the creativity and how good your prompt. On the other side, maybe they're not good at those things. That's the Socrates approach where you basically start the relationship going, I really suck at creativity. What I want you to do is ask me questions. My goal is to build this model. I want you to ask me questions so we can get to a broader, better model or better answer to the question with you asking me the questions that maybe I'm not thinking of. If you just start to prompt that way, as opposed to the way that
Starting point is 00:55:41 I typically do, which is go in and say, this is what I'm trying to build. And then if I don't like the answer, I ask another question. Some people don't do that. They need to be prompted. So do you want to prompt or do you want the LLM to prompt you? It's a different relationship with it. And I think as people do this, they're going to start to realize that the time of getting to an answer is far faster than it was six months ago. And because of that, your ideas can actually become something that is actually going to be finished eventually. Yeah. It does feel to me like once you learn that this thing is here to answer questions, it is a very different thing than Google search. Google search is, I know what I'm looking for. Point me to where it is.
Starting point is 00:56:24 This is a step before that. And I actually think, I forget, I can't remember if it was Karpathy or somebody around that tweet was talking about the fact that like maybe actually being a programmer could be a disadvantage to a degree because your first reaction is to go and start trying to build stuff yourself. Whereas like the young person or the non-technical person who's just now being introduced to these tools, they have no other option but to just ask the system to do it. yep and so this is a story as old as time new technology comes out people who are native to the technology have an advantage because they understand it they use it as default whatever but i do think that if ai code is writing code for ai you know we were talking before um there's this uh thing called do anything.com that um what they're trying is very early so i you know i've used this for one major task, but I was pretty impressed by it. It basically will allow multiple agents to simultaneously go do tasks and has the ability to start and stop, unpause itself,
Starting point is 00:57:28 and do it for a really long time. Their goal is to, could you do a task for a month or three months long, right? And so for example, you could go on and you could say, here's my business. I'd like to get more customers that have this profile. And it will go and it will understand your business it'll go understand that customer set it'll go generate a potential customer list it will then craft an email it will then go and actually email and uh somebody who was using i can't remember the founder or not said that he was trying to hire somebody and he put in you i need to hire somebody for this and because it had given the system its phone number it started having conversations with candidates and then gave the phone number to some of the candidates
Starting point is 00:58:06 and started just getting phone calls from qualified candidates being like hey you know this job whatever. We're headed to a world where again, it's like, should we be scared or should we be excited? And maybe it's a little bit of both. It is a little bit of both. You can see where it's going to be. So one of the reasons that I always say that Bitcoin is the purest AI trade is a phrase that Michael Saylor has used, which I think fits in with what you just said, which is the people who have the most to lose will be the last to adopt to Bitcoin. With AI and with what you're describing, the people that have the most to lose will be the ones who avoid do anything for as long as they can. Meaning if you have something to lose,
Starting point is 00:58:53 whether it's data, whether it's revenues, whether it's culture, whether it's whatever, if you're just a person sitting at home building a business, you don't have as much to lose. So I think people have to start realizing that what AI is, is it is the more you have to lose, the harder it is to go full boat in. On the flip side, if you have nothing to lose, you should be focused on doing it because that's your edge. Cause five years from now, your value is going to be AI as, as, as you, you put, I think people were trained in the Google search thing of, they just type something in and it gives them the answer. That is not what AI is to get really good answers. You have to ask really good questions. My average prompt now, I'm going to say it's 60 lines. Oh, wow. And again, not things like, I'm going to make a recipe. I need a recipe for this. I'm going to combine this. But
Starting point is 00:59:48 if I want to really learn something about AI, I did a paper for 22V last week on the NVIDIA Grok deal. It was a very important deal. And the reason it was an important deal is because it matches with what I'm feeling on my phone. I'm not here to sell more Apple products, but AI on the phones is here. And the reason it's here is because my phone, I got the iPhone, whatever it is. I don't know if it's 19, 17, whatever the max, blah, blah, blah. I don't know. I had gone. Jordy's balling. I had gone a long time without buying a new phone. I didn't realize how slow my LLMs were on my older phone. The reason is that NVIDIA Grok deal, we're already at the point where the memory side is important. The speed, you're not just in the
Starting point is 01:00:34 cloud. You actually need your phone to have enough of the new chips to combine the memory in this, be faster and faster and so the same way that you notice like your video everyone would upgrade the phones because it's like the video would be stalling in it with the with the lms if you use them all the time you need to get the best phone because this we're at the point now where that deal between nvidia and grok is really the inference edge device deal meaning they have to come up with new ways not just for the training models for the data centers but actually for the phones. That means how do we get this cluster of really fast performance per watt inside a phone, inside a car? And to do that, you need to bring in a lot more components. So I just think for
Starting point is 01:01:16 everyone out there who's really spending time, we've talked a lot about it. You have to commit this year to being able to use AI more and more. There's no doubt about it. Can I tell you one of my predictions for 2026? Oh, please. It'll be a little bit of fun. So this is like a half prediction, half request for product. somebody needs to create an agent that then guards you from paying for all of these things that we're all signing up for, for AI. And so somehow checks to say, okay, if you haven't used this in 60 days or something, and there's no dependencies on any of the products that you've built, you're good to
Starting point is 01:01:52 go and get rid of this. Because I think that more so than any industry I've ever seen, people are willing to pay 20 bucks a month for all of these different products naturally you're going to sign up for something you're not going to use it or whatever and uh we talked about agentic payments earlier there's going to be like the agentic hey make sure i cancel my subscriptions the phones right you're going to have all kinds of things that are running in the background so like there's going to be an agent that says hey go and kill a bunch of the things that are running in the background so that my chips and performance are better like it does feel like this task specific agent thing there is going to be an explosion of them and you me and everybody else will just be
Starting point is 01:02:33 like you know what there's a thing that i know i should always do i should always check when i'm going to go do a bunch of ai stuff what are all the apps running in the background yep why don't i just automate it yeah and to me that is the story of 2026 is like this you know task specific automation which is i think a little bit different than maybe if we had a conversation a year ago like talk to chat gbt it feels like we are in a different regime i think that's why uh you know some of these programmers are talking the way they're talking etc it's just like they feel like everything is changing and so the reason why i joked about like is it agi i think my other prediction the people inside of anthropic they see things that we don't see yet
Starting point is 01:03:14 mar uh dario back in i think it was q2 said in six months most code written will be written by ai and everyone laughed at him what was he off by three or four months yeah what do they know you know everyone that's always like what did ilia see you know type joke yep claude code team all this stuff i i don't know i i haven't got an answer from it but there is something happening inside of these labs where the next six months is going to look very different than it does today and we're all the beneficiaries of it yeah the only thing that needs to happen which will start earlier in the year when colossus 2 is completed and we're getting up to the million clusters i just think people have to recognize that the
Starting point is 01:04:07 power and the ability of having the data centers to speed up the capabilities is still kind of what's going on. I'm less worried about there being a power shortage. I've spent a lot of time on this. I've written about it. We are going to run up against them. We need a lot of gigawatts for this, but I'm a little bit less worried than I was throughout most of last year. That was a big change for me. I do think it will be a negative for the market at some point this year that people worry that we're running out of power and there'll be complaints. You're already starting to see the States pushing back, but I think there is enough behind the meter technology and creativity that's happening. And I think you're seeing this at MIT, you're seeing this
Starting point is 01:04:51 at Stanford, you're seeing in places where if you listen to more and more of the podcast, this new theme is kind of, it's not just, Hey, we need more plumbers in this. We need more engineers who are thinking about the creative part of this, which is really, we're reaching the physics part of of of kind of where ai goes and that's why for people that are investing this year the theme to me is going to be very different than last year i think value matters a lot when you get into this because you're having a broadening out of people that are benefiting i think for you and i as we sit here and talk to people i think a lot of what we talked about today which is not planned it's just inspiring people to use it more to be less scared about it both
Starting point is 01:05:26 from an investment standpoint but also from a personal inspiration and being feeling better about yourself. If you want to move forward in life, I think you have to build a better relationship with artificial intelligence issue. Normally people watch us because they want to learn different investment ideas or to make money. I feel like today's episode, we've just told them how to spend more money, get the new phone, use all these new products, right? So we apologize. We won't make a habit out of it. But talk a little bit about, you're going to launch this Substack with tracking HRV and kind of a health-focused thing. I don't know, can we send people anywhere yet? Or do you want to just tell them about what you're going to be launching?
Starting point is 01:06:03 Yeah. So again, I'm not a nutritionist. I'm not a doctor. I'm not a physical therapist. I'm not any of the things. But if you've gotten to know me, I am a curious person. And I want to be as healthy as I can until the day that I die. And hopefully, because of technology, we'll all live well past 100. I believe that. So this journey for me started 15 years ago. I've collected massive amounts of research. I believe the way our school system is set up in silos and that there's a specialist for this and a specialist for this and a specialist for this, it kills the beauty of the brain, which is this latticework of mental models and the ability of thinking outside the box. So my journey to raising my HRV, and HRV for me is a statistic. So people that have
Starting point is 01:06:51 scales. I don't have a scale. I believe one of the biggest negatives for people's health is that they weigh themselves. I don't believe that that does what you think it does. I think it gets into calorie restriction, nutrient restriction, a whole bunch of things. You start becoming, I'm giving up this, I'm giving up this, I'm eating more of this, I'm doing more of this. My journey to getting to the point where my HRV has reached levels that are associated based on the Oura Ring data, which I I have my aura ring back into my 20s is a representation of my focus on my microbiome and my breathing and my meditation and my exercise and my nutrition and my sleep. I took all five of those and I have hundreds of examples of tweaks and things that I put
Starting point is 01:07:33 into my life. No one of them by itself raised my HRV, but as a grouping of them, I think I can help people and I do believe it matters a lot, not only for the people that are my age, your age, but your children. Anxiety and depression is a major theme and we all know someone or have a child that has had a serious bout of anxiety. A lot of that has to do with HRV because at the end of the day, the ability of getting stressed and ruminating leads to cortisol and it becomes a major issue. HRV is a statistic which combines your body's desire for survival and your brain's desire for pleasure. And it goes back and forth between the two. And so I'm going to launch this
Starting point is 01:08:16 because it's a journey and I've been successful on it. I got to start doing something to make some money. So I got to have a paywall on something. I'm going to continue to have this and everything else, which is fine. But my HRV journey, I really think I can help people. So it's going to launch next week. I'm going to put out on my sub stack, a sub stack towards HRV with a big description of what everything I just talked about. And then I'll just continue. I have two sub stacks. So there'll still be the one that I do every week, which is focused on AI and Bitcoin, but my HRV thing will start next week. Jordy, sub stack, Visser. All right, guys, thank you guys so much for watching. Make sure you watch
Starting point is 01:08:53 Jordy's video tomorrow and we'll see you guys next week. Happy new year.

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