The Pomp Podcast - The AI Boom Is Very BULLISH For Bitcoin | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: May 9, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down why parabolic AI stocks are justified by real demand, who's actually buying bitcoin and why it's heading higher, the tokenization wave coming this summer, and the stocks Jordi is buying and selling right now.=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp=====================Bitget (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew) is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX) (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold. At launch, users can trade 79 instruments with USDT directly with the App. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage, while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. For more information on Bitget TradFi, visit this article (https://bitget.com/support/articles/12560603846859). For more information, visit: Website (https://bitget.com/) | Twitter (https://x.com/bitget) | Telegram (https://t.me/BitgetENOfficial) | LinkedIn (https://linkedin.com/company/bitget-global/) | Discord (https://discord.com/invite/bitget)For media inquiries, please contact: [e-mail]=====================0:00 - Intro1:14 - Why parabolic moves in AI stocks are justified5:18 - Data center buildout & the obsolescence race11:34 - DRAM ETF & AI volatility20:56 - Data center protests, supply bottlenecks, & inflation28:54 - AI-driven layoffs — cover story or real?32:12 - Michael Saylor, bitcoin & who's actually buying35:19 - Blackrock ETF at all-time highs & boomer buying37:21 - Why long duration assets are dead39:25 - Tokenization & the Iran war41:40 - New Fed chair, oil & macro outlook46:35 - AI in grocery stores & dynamic pricing49:21 - Wealth inequality & discretionary spending51:47 - Long-term investing advice & stocks Jordi is looking at57:50 - Jordi’s video this week

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Free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. ready to take your investing knowledge to pro level this is fidelity connects your daily edge in the markets get deep insights on real-time market topics that may impact your investment portfolio listen to fidelity connects on spotify today and power your next move tomorrow if i'm right about that i want to be in gold i want to be in silver i want to be in bitcoin i bought some bitcoin i bought ethereum because i think tokenization uh reality is going to start to set in the summertime. I don't think enough people are talking about tokenization and what's happening

and what they've basically announced to start in July. AI agents are with us. They need food. And that food is not physical food. It is tokens. There's been a shortage. That's what's worked. I think now we're going to run into supply demand issue. And that's going to be about more inflation than what people expected. And if that's the case, I don't want to be in semis as much as I want to be in power. What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this, he talks about why your CapEx is my opportunity. He explains what AI stocks he's excited about. He explains a stock that he just sold two-thirds of his position for the first time, and he explains why. We then talk about Bitcoin, whether Michael Saylor is going to

sell Bitcoin and does it matter or does it not. And then we talk about the Iran war and how that may or may not impact the US economy. This conversation is packed with very unique insights. Jordy even references at one point the alcohol he used to drink in college, which gives you a good laugh there as well. And so I'm very excited for you all to listen to this. There are parabolas happening everywhere in asset prices, and Jordy's here to explain to us why that may be an exciting thing, not a worrisome thing. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, I thought a great place to start the conversation this week is it seems like there is a ton of froth and enthusiasm in the stock market. There are assets that are going

parabolic, dare I say. And I think that there's a lot of question, can this continue or are stocks overvalued and there's some big crash? I think you've got a very interesting theory as to why we are seeing these like parabola type moves. Can you describe exactly what's going on? Yeah, I think for the things that are parabolas right now, they match up with one fundamental reality that's shown up. So beginning about a year ago, and it was May, I wrote a paper on inference. And for those of you who've listened to this for a while, this is obviously an AI conversation piece but inference really started to have an impact on things a year ago and that was when

almost every company started in their earnings talking about how inference demand was taking up now inference was because we were we had launched the first reasoning models so i want people just again to think about let's go from chatting where the models are just literally regurgitating answers back out to where they're taking more of a thoughtful time period once you take longer to think out an answer you're in the inference mode and you know the analogy i've given to people is if you ask someone what two plus two is they say four without having to spend any energy if you ask them what 17 times 28 is they got to go through and do take more energy and it takes more time so they have to reason through however that means for them at the end of this year or

last year, sorry, when Opus 4.5 was released, we went from inference and reasoning to that same inference and reasoning being about action. And so again, simplest way for people to think about it, we had chat and now we have cowork and code. Those two buttons are those two toggles on side Claude, since everyone now can say they use Claude. That's where action started to take it. where now these digital employees that are working behind the scenes are doing multi-step. That just led to more demand of tokens. So when you look at beginning of 4.5, you will see a parabola in token usage. You will see a parabola in the revenue, the annualized revenue run rate for Claude. I mean, now it's up to 44 billion. We're at pace

to be at a hundred, another 10 times. So the parabolas are being formed by the reality by everyone that, oh my God, we need more. Now back in September is when DRAM prices started to go up. That was before Opus 4.5. That was purely from the inference needs and the memory that we needed now. Now we've moved into the next phase. So the reason I wrote a paper about Marvell is because we started realizing that, oh my gosh, we need optical fiber because this is a different sort of data center. This is different inference. We got a lot of stuff going on. It's not just memory. It's action. Do this memory action. Do this. So that's why Corning, we talked about Corning back in November. Look where Corning stock is now. So these stocks have all gone through this parabola

for a very, very valid reason, which is the earnings and the build out necessary for the agent world. We didn't know how big it would be. We didn't know how fast the adoption would be. And this is a mistake that people have made continuously since 2013, which is they made it with the mag seven. They made it with NVIDIA and after, you know, chat GPT in the exponential world, things move at an exponential pace and that is a parabola. So the IQ going up, the average, the annualized run rate going up, adoption going up, there is a fundamental basis for this.

And before everyone starts to go into, this is the.com bubble demand is ahead of supply right now. And that's the big story. Did you see the clip of Dario Modai sitting on stage talking about why they did the deal with SpaceX? And he basically was like, you know, we planned our business for two or three X. And then we went all the way out and said the outlier would be if we could 10 X our business. And he goes, the problem is that we didn't 10 X, we 80 X the business. Whenever you have, you know, eight times more than the wildest dreams of the companies who are actually building the products and services. How does an investor, you know, kind of model that out? And this is the issue we're dealing with. Um, I heard someone say this on a podcast yesterday,

you went from hockey sticks to poles, like, and that's the way these charts look. And that's why for most humans, they look in the, the more educated they are, the more experience they have, the more books they've read about history, the more they're like, well, this is a bubble. This is ridiculous. I just think people have to understand that there's two things that have created this. One is this supersonic tsunami. Again, I think every week we bring it up. I remember saying it on stage at your event, like this is a supersonic tsunami. It's disrupting companies on the SaaS side. But at the same point, it happened so fast out of nowhere that we didn't make the investment. So if Anthropic is having trouble adjusting, well, they need to create

more data centers. They need more supply. So yeah, they go to Google, they go to Amazon, and then they go to XAI. They need the ability to provide the demand what it wants. And the easiest way to think about it is if you create a restaurant and all of a sudden you've got to line out the door, well, you need more seats and that takes more construction. That takes getting another building. That's expanding your place. That's what stage we're in right now. So it's a combination of underinvested and underpreparedness for something that's moving this fast at the same time as the people that are now in a race because they're worried about obsolescence. And whether it's obsolescence at the hyperscaler level, like we have to catch up, or it's at the Goldman Sachs versus Morgan Stanley versus Citibank versus JP Morgan, they're all in this obsolescence race where you want to make sure that you're building out in a thoughtful manner all of the AI that you can use because the cost of this stuff is going higher. And it's having an impact and it's going to have an impact for the foreseeable future

on supply and demand. So one of the things I find very interesting is if you take a company like a HUD eight, maybe, right. They just signed a huge, almost $10 billion deal for one of their development sites. And obviously, you know, the stock has done incredibly well. If you look in the private market, you then can see that there are tons of these companies that are actually not in the data center business. They are in, whether it is Bitcoin mining, they're in high, you know, kind of high

technology manufacturing or high performance manufacturing type stuff. And now everyone's realizing data centers are hot. And so what they're starting to do is they're either trying to convert their business to the data center side, right? HudAid is a good example. They were Bitcoin miners and they have completely transformed. Or I've even seen some deals in the private market where people are saying, hey, we're still going to do our high performance manufacturing thing.

But now on that site that is X thousands of acres, we're also going to put a data center. and that data center is going to help us uh subsidize the cost of doing our high performance manufacturing or it's going to bring us more capital etc and so it's like the trade is hot and now you see people sprinkling it everywhere it's not as egregious as like everyone changed their name to blockchain you know back five six years ago but it does feel like you're almost going to get uh you know fracturing of attention and capital because people that were trying to do other things are going to start putting the data center in there because they think that can get them, you know, kind of their ultimate business goal, which I always find fascinating.

Yeah. HOT8 and all of the Bitcoin miners are interesting for a few reasons. First of all, they're listed as software companies. So they're with inside the IGV. And, you know, this weekend I'm going to show charts of just the overlay of crypto equities, Bitcoin miners, and then Bitcoin and Ethereum and software. If you take out the Bitcoin miners, the software names as like an index are still sitting near the lows while the Bitcoin portion is going higher. And the reason is, if we go back to the five-layer cake, which we talked about with Jensen Yu Wang, the base of that, which I included in my Your CapEx is My Opportunity paper, is chips and energy and power.

That's compute. So everything you're describing with this is compute. So what did Larry Fink say this, you know, this week, he said, uh, very soon we're going to have compute futures. Compute is a commodity and it's a commodity because it's the packaging of two pieces of hardware that again, you're dealing with electrons to try and get bits out, intelligence out tokens out. And for that, you need power and you need the chips.

You need a lot of other component pieces in there for the infrastructure, the cooling and all that. But really what you need is that. So when we say compute, Anthropic's looking for compute. And if you're a Bitcoin miner and you have compute because you built something related to crypto, you always have to remember the linkage between artificial intelligence and crypto, the linkage between crypto and code. All of these go together.

And again, the reason this is so important, AI agents are coming every day more and more. And I just keep saying, eventually you'll start to recognize with stable coins, with tokenization, that the guardrails need to be going at the speed that all of these miners knew needed for what was necessary for crypto. So the speed of crypto, both on the parabola side, it's the OG of parabolas. Well, now we've got stocks doing parabolas. None of the people I know on Wall Street like Bitcoin. They don't like Micron from 100. Now it's 650. If they didn't get it at 100, they're certainly not going to buy it now.

They're going to wait for it to get back to 550, 450, 350, 250. And this is this kind of framework of when you're at this point where compute is in shortage, I think you have to decompose what fits the compute side and realize that all of those parabolas you're seeing, they're related to compute. So there's a couple of things I want to talk through. So let's talk about Roundhill's new DRAM ETF. So these guys basically created a memory ETF. It has gone from zero to 5 billion in assets in just a couple of weeks. And my understanding of what they're doing is basically there are two companies that are in Asia that US investors had a very hard time getting exposure to. These guys basically now are giving it through

swaps exposure, but you can just buy a single ETF and you basically get exposure to this DRAM trade. Zero to $5 billion in assets does not happen almost ever in the ETF industry, especially for not a BlackRock or some major fund that has very big distribution. What percentage of these companies that are basically fueling or supplying this data center AI compute bull market do you think are outside the United States? Because it begs the question of not only is this trade hot And people are obviously pouring capital in, but there is probably a pretty material percentage of the companies that are hard for us investors actually buy exposure to. Well, you can use the recent trade data that came out yesterday, uh, as kind of, or maybe

it was the day before as the, the answer to the question, first of all, which is we have huge imports of technology stuff coming in for the AI trade, huge numbers. I mean, so people understand for DRAM, you're basically talking about Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Those are your three major choices, and two of them, yes, are in the Korean market. On the flip side, to balance out the trade, we're a huge exporter of energy, especially now with Iran. So that's what's kind of balanced out. We have tremendous, enormous imports coming in related to the data center build-out and all the things we need for compute. and it's not just that it's it's things for phones things for computers everything that's ai related

we're we're getting a lot of it from overseas and i don't want people to think about that this is just related to dram it's a lot more things nvidia is doing deals throughout korea for heavy electronics i mean they're rolling out vera rubin they're still rolling out blackwell and that brings a lot of needs on the power side that we just don't have here um at the same point if you need gas turbines two of the major companies siemens and mitsubishi they're outside japan has a huge export side that's to the US too. So there's a lot of companies that if people are looking to get concentrated risk. So remember, as much as I want to say, oh yeah, we need access to these. Well, you can get access to them in the Korean ETF. They want concentrated access to DRAM.

And to be honest with you, I've called this benchmark arbitrage. If you're an RIA, if you're a mutual fund, if you're a pension fund, they're all benchmarked. And right now, of the benchmarks are wrong. So the other angle of supersonic tsunami is it creates these parabolas because the dollars flowing in are enormous. I'll keep saying it every time. Jensen Yuan has said to everyone, the build-out is going to be 90 trillion over the next decade. Those are massive numbers and it's basically a rotation. We're getting rid and we're allowing every old car that doesn't have AI in it to be gone and we'll be replacing it with a new car that's AI. It'll take a decade for all of those cars to recycle. Same thing will happen with appliances. Same

thing will happen with phones. Same thing will happen with computers. It won't happen in one year. It'll happen spread out over a while. The data centers, it takes a long time to build the data center. So everyone that's kind of caught in this thinking, okay, it's not there. I'm going to bring it up again and again, because I'm sick of reading these self-absorbed people who believe I've seen bubbles. I know what they look like. This is a bubble. Yes, this looks like a bubble. And just like, just like everyone who went to college has that alcohol, they don't drink anymore because it brings back that bad memory. Parabolas bring back bad memories to people. And so you hear the phrase, I've seen this before. Retail doesn't know what this is. This

is a bubble. This is tulips. I think people have to just deal with this is a structural thing. And instead of having crashes where everyone loses their job and it takes four years to go back to highs, that allows every smart person to buy things at value when the people that are dependent on credit have to sell their stuff. This is a different retail situation. Anyone wants a job can get a job. It may not be the job you want, but you can get a job. If you can get a job, that means you still have income coming in the door. Okay. That means you can still make your payments. You can still go through this, but you're living paycheck to paycheck. That is very different than losing 4 million jobs in a year and you can't spend any money. And now you're

in a different situation. These are all different. And instead of having crashes that last a long time, we had a crash last year, lasted for weeks. We had a 10% fall this year. It lasted for a little bit of time. We had plenty of stocks that fell 30, 40, 50%. We still have a lot of names that have fallen a lot. Maybe we're not having the crashes we had in the past. Maybe these are just speed crashes. Well, I have long said that there's, this generation is the volatility generation. And there's kind of two types of investors, some that run towards volatility, some that run away. The people who are driving most of the returns, the people running towards the volatility. You can look across the market. You just mentioned the last two years, the type

of volatility. But you call it a speed crash. Another way that I've thought about this is really what stocks now do are they gyrate. And the reason why I say gyrate is because it is not, okay, I start at a low price, I go to a high price, I crash, I go sideways for a while, and then maybe I recover. There's always the famous, it took 10 years to recover from XYZ crash throughout history for different names. The gyration to me is really interesting because can go up hundreds of percent you draw down 50 then you go back up hundreds of percent and it's just like this constant volatility where the best thing to do is have a thesis by the name and they kind of don't look right and it's going to be all over the place but over a long period of time it

continues to go up into the right um is that a fair way to think about this it's almost like you need the you know acceleration and then the crash and the acceleration again and like that is the volatility that gets you the higher prices so you've brought up a behavioral comment um i haven't what i'm about to say to this because i i didn't just popped into my head and that happens sometimes the difference between um younger people and let's say people in in their 50s and 60s there's a reason why they had to speed up baseball they had to put a clock on the pitcher okay there's a reason why all of a sudden football inside or the football scores are now in the 50s regularly uh there's a reason why when you say today's news like they forget about what's

happening and move on to the next remember maduro yeah and that's what i mean it's like um tiktok is the right length for a video like attention deficit disorder which is something that i absolutely yeah me and you yeah as a kid are we the add boys yeah so uh i was put into emerging markets it was the perfect place for me interesting bull market oh next day bear market oh world's gonna end and so i traded my way through emerging markets so it's the reason why my daughter said okay you are the world's oldest millennial i've you've you've acted you like you move on it's The reason why I got involved with, when I got to Morgan Stanley, trust me, to move to the level I did in the time that I did as a son of a construction worker who went to

Manhattan College and graduated, I mean, I was not young when I graduated college. This was not a thing for me. But to move up to the ladder, part of it was I didn't have anything to lose. And I think that is one of the things that separates retail from, again, the self-absorbed pontificators in X that say this is a bubble, that say everyone's going to lose all their money. We will have falls of 20%, 30%. I'm guaranteeing you that at some point I've gotten rid of two-thirds of my Micron. So everyone who's been involved watching this show since I first mentioned Micron, two-thirds of it is now gone. Just so we're clear, we always talk about things that people are buying, but you sold two-thirds of your Micron watch.

This week. It's already higher than as of this morning when we did. It's already higher than it was when I sold it. So I'm not like making some call that this went down and it's going down. The reason I sold out of it is not because I think it's coming down. Do I think it might fall 20, 30%? Yeah. To be honest with you, if it did, I would probably buy it again because it is way too

cheap for the view that I have. So when people sit there and say, this stuff is going to fall, just ask them one question. What is your view on AI over the next five years? instead of telling me that this poll is going to fall, do you use AI? What's your view on it? Do you think agents are going to be in here? Just ask them the questions because at least when I have this conversation, I'm selling DRAM not because I have any negative thoughts about where AI is, but because the DRAM thing bothers me in terms of how much money has moved into it. The fact that SK Honix has a two times ETF in Hong Kong that is like one of the biggest in

the Hong Kong market. That just means I think everyone's in it. And my guess is, is that over the next six months, it's probably higher. It could be lower. But if I had to guess, I'd say it's somewhere around where it is now. So where did I put my money if I sold it? Well, that went into silver, which has fallen significantly and to me is starting to go into the next regime. So the regime I've talked about and the way that I move my money is I think we're entering a new regime within AI. So AI is going to have cycles. At some point, instead of recessions and crashes, you know what we're going to run into? Is bottlenecks. And when the bottlenecks happen, the volume of sales might actually come down for an earnings period. And that's what I think may

happen is maybe the first quarter, this massive earnings we've seen is the hoarding that happened with inside hardware and semis. And that once they get it, they have to wait for the data centers to be built, which is taking longer than expected. And they're not using it as much. Will they continue to buy it? I'm not really sure. DRAM prices did peak. So I'm making a rational argument for me that it does feel like too much retail might be in here now and that they're going to move their attention to something else, which is where I think inflation is going to be and real rates are going to be stuck at, again, negative levels. We'll have inflation above rates. If I'm right about that, I want to be in gold. I want to be in silver. I want to be in Bitcoin. I bought

some Bitcoin. I bought Ethereum because I think tokenization reality is going to start to set in in the summertime. I don't think enough people are talking about tokenization and what's happening and what they've basically announced to start in July. AI agents are with us. They need food. And that food is not physical food. It is tokens. There's been a shortage. That's what's worked. I think now we're going to run into the supply demand issue. And that's going to be about more inflation than what people expected. And if that's the case, I don't want to be in semis as much as I want to be in power. Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. I absolutely love these guys. ArchPublic is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your

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of security and performance so that you can trade with confidence. Sign up today at archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch, no hidden fees, just smarter trading your crypto your exchange your profits arch public go to archpublic.com and tell them i sent you kevin o'leary has a data center project in utah and it's not clear to me kevin is a friend of mine i like to give him a hard time he is i believe 71 years old he looks like he's 19 years old he's got a fresh face you know uh he's very entertaining nice i said that about me too yeah Yeah. Well, listen, he's a movie star now. You know, he gets on every older. He he whacked Chalamet with a with a paddle in the movie. You know, he's doing his thing. But he's got this

data center project. And I don't know how involved he is versus he's funding it versus, you know, he's actually working on the specifics. But it is something like two and a half times the size of Manhattan. How big this thing. Right. And there was a video that went viral recently of a couple hundred local citizens showed up to like the city commission meeting and they're yelling and screaming and you know having a blast basically protesting we don't want this thing in our community i posted a video about this online and i was shocked at how uh controversial the two sides are or how much they disagree there's one side which i'm sympathetic to which is um hey we need data centers we people want intelligence they want to use these products we don't have enough power

we don't have enough compute, we need to build this stuff out. And these things pay taxes in your local community. There's evidence that like a Loudoun County, actually, the property taxes are pretty low, because the data centers pay so much. There's job creation and companies and all this kind of stuff. On the other side of the debate, which I'm also sympathetic to, is there's a lot of concerns about, hey, is my electricity prices going to go up? Is the water supply going to be affected? The data centers are ugly, right? They don't create as many local jobs once the construction's done right and so like i kind of look at this and i say i see both sides as to why we get to this debate i tend to think that technology wins out and the data centers will

get built and you know we'll kind of keep going but do you think that the like local community protests will actually slow development because everyone's talking about technology and hardware and power generation like those being the bottlenecks but is there like a social layer that we should be talking about as well that may actually lead to slower development of some of this so the it already is slowing things um and that's just so the protests and the regulations are just one part i mean gas turbines are slowing it labor can't find enough electricians enough plumbers uh cooling equipment is slowing it memory is slowing it um all of these things are going to slow it the the thing is things going slower is not always um a bad thing uh you you know i think

to control inflation, to be honest with you, the spending is being done by people who have unlimited amounts of money. And I know people want to look at these free cashflow charts and be like, Oh my God, they don't have any more money. They're going to cancel buying or open AI's canceling deals. And open AI just raised $122 billion. Is that a lot? Yeah. And they're about to do a public raise where I don't know if they take out another hundred, like we're talking about an enormous amount of money. So I just think people are going to have to deal with the fact that the data centers are probably going to take a lot longer than what people expect. And this is only the supply disruptions we've seen so far. You know, I'm going to say this

again and again, the agent world came out of nowhere. DRAM prices went through the roof. We have a problem with inventories and oil if people haven't noticed. So rather than get into the doom and gloom portion, which again, everyone in the oil space seems to want to scare the hell out of people. The reality is we do have lower inventories, which means we're probably going to have higher prices for longer than what was expected, definitely than at the beginning of the year. The December crude price as of this morning was up around 77. Last, you know, at the end of last year, it was less than 60.

So you're talking about out to December, assuming that the futures prices, which I think are too low, you're talking about a very high level of energy change. silver prices, despite the fact that they've corrected, they're significantly above where they were. I could go on and on in this. You're going to see food prices that are up significantly. I mean, I'm going to show a chart this weekend that basically overlays gas at the pump to food prices, ag prices going back to 2000. It's almost a one-for-one correlation. And in prize, we're going to have severe food prices in the second half of the year. And the reason it doesn't happen immediately is because we're still living off of food from

whatever the case, we've just planted. The fertilizer costs are significant. And that means that prices are going to be higher, that the trucking situation rates are higher. So you're going to have a situation, in my opinion, where we've differed. I think people are underestimating the permanence of inflation on the commodity side. And that also spreads to the shortages we are still going to have remaining on the memory and the compute side of which you're competing. So we've seen phone prices, phone sales, computer sales go down. And so I don't know how this stuff is going to work itself out in the near term. That all fits into this equation of the data centers are going to be delayed. Everyone is getting negative on AI, not just

because of the data centers, but because of the inflationary pressures that are all being lumped into it. And if you don't think this is going to be part of the midterm dialogue when we're in the summertime and we're getting into the heart of like this issue, of course it is. AI has obviously had an impact on these businesses. We talk a lot about how we get the AI, but I think if we talk about what is happening with AI in terms of these companies, in the last 72 hours, we have seen a number of very large layoffs. Almost every single one of them reference AI to some degree. I find it funny because some of these companies, you look at their underlying metrics and you're like, oh, wait a second, hold on. I think it has more to do with

you know, just the industry is not doing as well, or the company is, you know, trying to right size its unit economics or whatever, but they are referencing AI. Is this just going to be cover? And now people can go lay off, you know, 10, 15, 20% of their company, which they should have done already, but now they've got an excuse to do it. And everyone kind of just like, oh, okay, it's AI. And therefore we should expect a lot more job loss because of it. Um, I, I think rather than there's no doubt that AI is, is the direct cause. So I'm going to go out and say that anyone that's minimizing AI, yes, companies may have overhired with people all well and good, but the cost of AI of anthropic in your business,

it's going higher. So if you're going to use AI, which every company that's going to be around in the next decade has to be using artificial intelligence, the cost of adoption has gone through the roof. and so when they realize okay i need ai well you can't all have it on the cloud so that means you need new servers you need this you need that and by the way there's no mac minis there's no this so when you start looking at server costs and you go to dell and you go to hp and then you go to cisco we have shortages and all this stuff the component pieces are going up in value so

the physical constraints of the world where we under invested i mean cisco didn't think there'd be a need for massive routers again, because we were in the cloud. It's only because AI can't be in the cloud to do the thinking that it needs to be in the physical locations. And so for every company, and this is a big company problem, they're going to lay off people because they need to use that to pay for the build out and hope that they get the return on the benefits that come from AI. I'm a little bit worried. And it's only as a power user, it is very hard for me to see how easy it'll be for these companies to really find a way to get the true margin benefits from this when they get rid of the people. But the numbers are so big, because if you get rid of 10% of your

workforce, a lot of these companies, you're talking about billions of dollars of compensation. And that means they have a lot of money to spend both on, you know, the physical build out, and then you hope that they get the money through. My guess is those job costs are to help them, but they're happening in a numbers basis that's not going to impact the job situation at the aggregate level. I mean, we got the payroll numbers today. It was a positive number. Wages aren't positive.

They're at the lowest level since the COVID situation. So I just think when we go through this, you're going to be in a psychologically depressing position for anyone who's trapped in companies where they're not having upward mobility. So it really makes the distribution of wealth problem, again, worse. A company that was trapped was formerly MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy. They have employed a brand new Bitcoin strategy. You like that transition, huh? Yeah. Pretty good, right?

It's very nice. And then speaking of psychological impact, another transition, Michael Saylor recently explicitly said he may sell some Bitcoin to fund dividends. Surprisingly, the price of Bitcoin was higher 24 hours later, not lower. Is that because people don't care? Is that because the market already figured you'd have to sell Bitcoin at some point? Or are we now being driven higher by something other than Michael Saylor and those types of companies buying Bitcoin? If you ask me why something moves, which you seldom do, I'll always say the same thing. On any given day, who knows what's going on?

I have a theory why Bitcoin's going higher. No inside information, but I have a strong theory. here you give your theory first the u.s government is this a theory or a conspiracy theory no no okay i'm putting pieces together okay connecting dots so uh i think there's two different white house officials who have said that there will be an announcement about the strategic bitcoin reserve in a few weeks there seems to be a persistent bid in bitcoin that would suggest that someone is aggressively buying bitcoin most people assume that sailor is that buyer I think he's probably part of it. But if in a couple of weeks, we find that the US government has accumulated more Bitcoin and been purchasing in the open market, that would explain why Bitcoin

has gone from 74, 75,000 to 80 to 82,000 in a short period of time, is that having that persistent bid there would be a big driver, especially if they need to accumulate billions of dollars of bitcoin in order to make it impactful i don't know that to be true whatever but just like hey we have an announcement coming and bitcoin is trading up maybe it's people thinking that the government's buying in their front running or something right but just like there seems to be something related to that government announcement that uh may be the leading indicator of why bitcoin's going higher yeah i i you're not convinced no no no i i think if the government was in there buying um it would act very different than it does um here's what i think is going i i

think there'd be more of a bid to it than you think for one thing this government there tends to be a lot of leaks so i'm just we'd see the poly market or couchy ads spiking yeah i i think there'd be a big change here here's something that's happened that people should um jordy it's just information making its way to the market what are you talking about yeah i mean the good thing is bitcoin bottomed at 60 000 it's now at 80 i can do math fairly well it's 33 move to you and me that's a big move it's better than the stock market so we'll leave that alone um here's what i think is important news for people to recognize the blackrock etf shares outstanding all-time highs all-time highs so it's higher than when it was 126 000

that means that in a what is considered a bear market to most people i most most podcasts i listen to in crypto it's amazing how much this four-year cycle like it'll never die we're in the middle of the four-year cycle it's not going to end until the end of the year and i'm like oh my god i gotta listen this forever whatever the case is it's like the boogeyman's around yeah it's the four-year cycle well the boomers because that's what the blackrock etf is the boomers okay the wealth managers morgan stanley creates i mean if you go stanley's over 200 million in like two weeks and if you go through where we were at the beginning like the boomers are buying it they're adding it to asset allocation so my whole story about this ipo type thing where the ogs are

getting out and they're transferring ownership to the boomers, if they're buying during a down move, I just want to let people know when this thing goes higher, they will be buying in an up move. Of course. No question. So they're in. Oh, they chase too. They're not disciplined. Yeah. No, they're, well, here's the thing. And again, I'll say it again and again, again, and again, the growth asset bucket has died. Private credit, not coming back. Private equity, not coming back. VC not coming back. SAS not coming back. You guys can all do what you want. You can try to pick these things. There's a reason why the ultimate long duration asset bonds are uninvestable. These things are not investable in a world where speed is the game. These are old

illiquid things. You sound so much better saying it than me. Cause I just say bonds are trash and everyone gets mad at me. You say it in such an eloquent way that, you know, they'll listen to you say that again. What was the problem? I don't even remember what I said. If you haven't got this point now, stuff just flies out of my mouth. My brain's really good about it. But if asked me what i said i don't even remember but this point of like okay a lot of the long duration assets in general i mean you just named private credit private equity venture capital bonds etc that those things are all under immense pressure right now and they're under pressure for valid reasons because what ai has done is made people realize that they don't know what the world's

going to look like in three years so why would you make any long duration this happened so corporate credit, the reason we don't have recessions anymore is because we lost the credit angle of this. Meaning we used to have this contagion that happened because the winners of the prior cycle would have lots of debt. So if you go back to the great financial crisis, who had all the debt was people doing the loans on the housing. Before that, if you go to 2000, it was the dot-com bubble. Well, the period we just went through, the mag seven had no debt. Now they're accumulating debt. The debt is for AI. If we were going to have a recession, yeah, it would make sense if these companies didn't have the demand and they didn't have receivables of $1.3 trillion

sitting there, they need data centers to get the money. So we don't have that. But with innovation and with AI, you also don't need people anymore to start a business. You don't need debt or people. So we're at the ultimate point of like, what happens to the capital structure? So all people that are like, you know what? I think this company is going to make it in 10 years. I'm going to give them money. I'm a VC. I'm going to give them a lot of money. That's not happening. not for 10 years. Now, can people find an Anthropic? Yeah. Can they find a Cursor? Yeah. And Cursor, you know, went from a zero to what, 50, 60 billion from XAI. There will be those out there. The question is how much of that company did VC own when it went through there

and how much was actually owned by the owner? So I just think we've disrupted the whole thing. You see a lot of people talking about terminal value. Goldman Sachs wrote a whole thing on terminal value. I just think for people that are long-term investors, we're entering a period where transparency and liquidity is becoming critical because a lot of money is stuck in dormant assets. So tokenization is actually needed for no other reason for price discovery for a lot of these things that they're trapped in. It's funny you say that because Anthropic is trading in the tokenized pre-IPO perp future world. Binance Research has a really good report out that shows uh anthropic open ai and um spacex are all up on average 88 over the last six months

in the like pre-ipo perps and people are just gonna they're gonna find a way to get exposure to this stuff but i have a um proclamation to make which people are not gonna like but it's true the iran war is over may not technically be over psychologically in people's evaluation of what is going on in the stock market. We've been sitting here for almost 45 minutes talking. We've not talked about the Iran war one time. I think that people are like, cool, got it. It happened. It is now memory hold as a risk. And sure, does it have an impact on oil or gas or whatever? But people are pretty much like, if it ends tomorrow or not, I don't know how many people would change their portfolio. I don't think it's a big percentage. What do you think?

well here here's the thing um the ai trade is driving everything so like whirlpool was down huge this week and the reason was they said this is the worst appliance market since the great financial crisis so i i think as much as we're saying the stock market doesn't care well that's asset owners people driving trucks care people in the part of the country where they're living paycheck to paycheck care about gas prices being up at the highest level outside of the great outside of covid um and they're not getting stimmy checks so i as much as i think people want to believe the market doesn't care there's a lot of parts of the market that are not up that much if it wasn't for the semiconductor names which again you can't do that with the market that's the

reason why you invest in indexes and you passively invest because you're still getting the returns i i think there's another angle to this which again i said at the beginning you're gonna have speed crashes you're gonna have periods where it goes down i don't think that's gonna happen in the stock market this year but i do think we're at a new regime and the new regime to me is one where we're gonna have a new fed chair coming in that's gonna be a story in a few weeks we have trump going to china that's gonna be a new story in the next couple weeks and these are gonna have an impact on the way people view the market. The commodity hoarding side to me is still in play. The inventories for energy. This is not about is the world going to hit 200 oil and are we

going to collapse? One thing I want to say, which is clear and I think is important for people to recognize that read constantly the doom and gloom from oil. The one thing that no oil person ever talks about when I read this is how we watch the Strait of Hormuz like it's a video game. You couldn't do this 15 years ago, meaning we didn't have satellite imagery on X of how many boats go through. The reason that's important is just like when you go to a supermarket and they have real time knowledge of inventory because of technology. So does India. So does Vietnam. So does Australia. They see how many ships are going through. And so they make changes to the demand side of the equation.

We have absolutely saved millions of barrels a day by the governments going, okay, you can only drive your car if your car ends in an even number. And then on Wednesday, you guys can go on an odd number. You have to carpool. They find ways to reduce the demand side. That was hard when you didn't have information.

So always remember when you connect the digital economy back to this old stuff. In the 1970s, we didn't have that kind of information. So you didn't know exactly how many barrels there were, what kind of inventory. I think everyone has to recognize that we're just in a situation just like Silicon Valley Bank, that when you can see the problem happening and you see all the deposits leaving the banks, the government steps in early and does something. So I just bring that up because there's a different way this plays out.

And for the people who don't think inflation is going to be here for the rest of the year, I think you're making a really, really big mistake, not anticipating that it's not about the episodic crash. It's more about the duration and the fact that the hoarding and everything is going to be there for a long time now. You choose your own pool, and you have Bitcoin sent directly to your wallet. They were featured on the Inc. 5000 list as the fastest growing company in Iowa with over 40,000 machines under management. What stands out to me is execution.

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Check them out at bitget.com today. That's B-I-T-G-E-T.com today. Speaking of grocery stores, did you see the startup? I forget the name of it. that just launched where they basically are going to automate the grocery store and the entire idea is to use technology to understand inventory and all this stuff. And as they're, I was watching their kind of announcement video that had a little demo and they were explaining what they're doing. It is pretty much everything from they're hooked into

the POS system, their inventory, it automatically orders new things when it's low, you know, the first thing that popped to mind, grocery stores are going to do surge pricing or dynamic pricing. Because if you walk into the grocery store and there are, you know, whatever, 20 different little packages of blueberries, well, whatever the price is should be the price. But if there's only one left and the grocery store knows that we're about to hit 5 p.m. on Thursday night, and that's when we get a huge influx of people coming home from work, well, if they double the price of that blueberry package, it's probably going to sell. and so grocery stores have very low margins there's not a lot of technology or intelligence

when it comes to this dynamic pricing etc and so i'm very torn on that type of idea because on one hand you're like hey you know nobody likes change including me but there's like a gamification also like hey how do you maybe use that to your advantage and find lower prices at certain times but the grocery store is only doing it because it's gonna help to make more money and so it does feel like we talk about ai from the sense of you know is it going to replace human labor is it going to do it like ai machine learning you know big data stuff like it's going to come to the grocery store it's going to come to all these areas and again that is a persistent demand for compute and it ties it into like how is this stuff going to affect your daily life even if you never

go to cloud or chat gpt like you may be on the receiving end of the ai in a very weird way like something like that yeah i there's no way that's going to happen at every grocery store so maybe at the higher end ones it'll happen um and the reason i say that is because i mean don't we have a mayor that's focused on the government running the grocery stores well if you don't know uh if you go to venezuela or other countries that have done government run they actually have chalkboards for prices they change it multiple times a day not because they have ai because they have socialism remember i remember i lived in brazil at hyperinflation seven years before i was there and all of the people that were there they think they're some of the smartest traders i've met and

they were like, yeah, when I was a kid, my parents would send me to the grocery store and I'd have to go in. And the way that we found the milk to buy was we went deep in the container to look for the one that they did the price tag the longest time ago, because it would be the cheapest because they were resetting them every hour. So I've been associated with it. But the reason I bring that up is I took my kids, two of my kids to the next game this week, and they're both really big fans, but they can't afford to go to the games without me paying for them what tickets were about 500 bucks uh if you get better seats maybe a thousand no they they were 500 bucks a piece yeah uh a little bit higher um the the reason i bring this up is

that's what's happened to sports games um now again that's from youth sports all the way up to professional now that's entertainment i view that as a discretionary item um groceries are not a discretionary item so if you've got a kid who's at home with someone who's living paycheck to paycheck. And all of a sudden the blueberries are $38 and that kid loves blueberries. I think that can happen in the high-end stores, but I think if this was already going to happen, didn't Amazon go have the little walk-in pay for everything go out? I don't know if those stores are even still open anymore. I try not to hang out. But this is interesting, right? So like if we think of like actual reality on the ground, discretionary spending, okay. So the tickets are

500 bucks, a thousand bucks, right? I couldn't go cause I was traveling during one of these, but i look to see what were the tickets and you know you for those that don't know msg there's basically you know you've got kind of higher uh seats those obviously are cheaper as you get closer to the the floor they're more expensive but some of the tickets and this is we're not even talking about eastern conference finals we're talking about you know semi-finals thousands of dollars for some of these seats sold out though right yeah and so always it's always this thing of like it new york may be somewhat unique but i think this happening across the country even though the prices are going up and you me and everyone watching this or listening

to this are going to complain they're still sold out it's kind of like college everyone's like oh it's eighty thousand dollars they turn away ninety four percent of the people who apply and so there is this um you know kind of recognition of maybe it's actually underpriced given the demand they have right if they add another ten thousand seats to msg from just a pure objective economic standpoint they probably would sell the tickets yeah they would but again it gets into the point that the wealth that's at the top end is not a little wealthy it's super wealthy um and again the numbers are pretty staggering compared to the bottom 50 in the economy so you know i i've mentioned joseph schumpeter on here and i i believe that this

the reason why i created a paywall for people um the nicest messages i get from people are how i'm helping them with embracing ai trying different things giving some of the tips that i think are important for you to stay ahead of things so you can get a job because if you do know how to use artificial intelligence you will be able to get a job there's no question about it um at the same time being involved in the stock market i i really do think if you're really smart about the way you you deal with things and you follow this decade long $90 trillion that's going in the market and you recognize that a lot of these companies are just not priced properly for that going on, you can have some periods where you don't make money, where we have one of those speed

crashes where the market falls and DRAM prices fall, whatever, 20, 30%. That is going to happen, but you shouldn't care about the 20 to 30% and you should have a long-term memory and you should be moving into the stuff that is the new story to go in. And so I do think you have to adapt to the environment you're in the very positive side. And again, to use Micron as an example, the Pete Micron is trading at six times next year's earnings with the growth rate. Let's assume the smallest it'll be is 60%.

Nvidia's earnings are growing at 70% a year. Their multiple is 24. So peg ratio. I mean, you don't get these kinds of opportunities to have a company that's growing their earnings at 50, 70% and still have a multiple. Think about where it'd be pricing as a startup business. So the reason it's there and the only reason it's there, and I will tell you this is a fact from, I talked to, let's assume a couple hundred hedge funds a year and between mutual

funds, pension funds, let's assume that the total amount of institutional people I talked to in a year is a few hundred. they've missed the trade that's it like the majority i've i've not heard people say they they made it now do i know some of them that are in yes it's not zero and three hundred well let's assume a hundred of them a third of them have been in semiconductors at a reasonable price the majority can't buy it at these levels they're waiting for a pullback or a recession so i just think people should realize that the reason these things in my opinion are still so cheap is because institutions just won't buy them at these levels and if they do they're just

buying small amounts i am looking for uh here we go um a guy on twitter named joseph jacks he tweeted out uh a prediction so uh his thought process but he said anthropic will surpass alphabet and revenue by mid 2028 he says this is not a bull case or an acceleration scenario is a continuation of the curve already in evidence. Anthropics ARR went from a billion in January 25 to 9 billion in December 25 to 30 billion in April 2026. And now we're at 44 billion, what they're saying.

It's a 3.3X step in a single four-month window. And the curve has been steepening, not flattening. He says, my projection actually assumes deceleration from here. So there'll be at 100 billion by the end of 2026, 340 billion in 2027 850 billion in 2028 and then 1.4 trillion in 2029 and then you cross over with alphabet happens around somewhere 575 billion dollars or so in mid-2028 not because the anthropic accelerates beyond today's pace but because alphabet which has been locked in at

about 15 year-over-year growth in mature ads and cloud business cannot match enterprise ai's adoption physics do you think something like that could happen like does that sound crazy to you just off the the top of uh hearing it do i think it could yes um i've kind of that's crazy well but again that the reason it's possible is because so many people doubt it i mean most people think it's a bubble still i i hate to say it but rather than so a bubble is by definition they think there's a better entry point so i don't think anyone disagrees with ai anymore I just think buying now makes no sense to them. What you're saying and what Joseph is saying is exactly the problem.

If that occurs, it's not the size of the numbers. It's the consistency. Because for that to happen, Micron needs to be higher. Marvell, who- Everything has to be higher. Everything that has work needs to be higher. Because that's the only way that works. Their revenue is completely dependent on those two layers of the stack.

so I will keep saying it again and again. Nobody on the institutional side was ready for this and it got away from them too fast. End of story. Now, if you guys are sitting at home trading these names, again, I've said, okay, I've reduced my, I didn't say I sold all of it. I'm staying in a third of it and I won't buy any more unless it falls. And the only reason I would buy it if it falls is if there's a panic and I see things going down, I will buy more. I haven't sold anything in Marvell worth anything. So if anything, I sold 10%. And that was just being disciplined. But again, I moved that money into things that I think will outperform. But if you ask me, Marvell is still something that I think will outperform Micron from here. There's other

stocks like Infineon and other power semi names, which are just starting to me. And the reason they're just starting is because I'm looking at the phones, the computers, the cars, then the humanoids, all the modern warfare. Silver to me is a no brainer for me. If people want to get involved in it, that's great. I just think this build that's going to happen because I believe the anthropic, either anthropic will get those numbers or someone else will. I'm laughing because I know people at home are hearing you start to throw out names of companies like more Geordie, more, more. Give us the names. Go to the subscriber site. You guys can see whatever you want.

What a pro. What a pro. What's the website? just type in geordie visser ai macro nexus you'll find whatever you need all right uh what's going to be in uh this week's video uh it's going to focus a lot on on parabolas and again i want to make sure that i highlight to people who are worried that are reading from i i legitimate people these people have been through markets for a long time and maybe they're right um it did feel a little bubbly this week in terms of DRAM. But again, I think there's a couple of ways for this to happen. And maybe they just underperformed. Software went up this week because you got some good earnings from Datadog and Fortinet. There's some companies in the cyber and the analytics side

that are separating themselves from the Adobe's and the seat-based software names. So maybe software goes higher and semis kind of underperformed for a period of a month or two. uh i i'm going to cover a lot of that but i'm really going to go through how important nvidia is we're going to have the china um u.s meeting which believe it or not is not getting enough attention especially since the straight is still shut um i'm going to cover a little bit of all that and whatever else i can go through for people all right go to jordy visser on youtube go and subscribe there or uh jordy visser ai macro nexus uh research as well talk to you guys next week.