The Pomp Podcast - The AI Race Will Make Bitcoin EXPLODE | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: February 28, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this episode, we break down the viral Citrini paper and whether AI disruption is being overstated or simply repriced by markets. We also discuss compressed software valuations, NVIDIA, shifting credit conditions, and why crypto and bitcoin could benefit in a world that increasingly needs speed, verification, and secure financial rails.=======================Bitget (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew) is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX) (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold. At launch, users can trade 79 instruments with USDT directly with the App. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage, while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. For more information on Bitget TradFi, visit this article (https://bitget.com/support/articles/12560603846859). For more information, visit: Website (https://bitget.com/) | Twitter (https://x.com/bitget) | Telegram (https://t.me/BitgetENOfficial) | LinkedIn (https://linkedin.com/company/bitget-global/) | Discord (https://discord.com/invite/bitget)For media inquiries, please contact: [e-mail]=======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.=======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=======================0:00 – Intro0:57 – The Citrini AI Paper debate4:55 – Why software stocks are getting repriced10:39 - Can AI replace SaaS companies?15:53 – NVIDIA earnings & market regime shift21:05 – Why crypto wins in the next cycle29:37 – AI, government & autonomous weapons36:39 – Deepfakes, spam & the need for crypto41:29 – Survive vs Thrive: positioning for what’s next

This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. AI cannot survive without crypto. It can't survive.

And the reason it can't survive is because the fiat system financial guardrails cannot handle the speed of AI. Coming out of a crisis, you want to invest in the fastest horse in the race. Well, the fastest horse in the race coming out of this cycle is crypto. And this time, I don't think it's going to stop

because of what Ben Horowitz talked about and what I said. So what's going on, guys? In today's conversation with Jordy Visser, we get into the depths of all of the debates going on this week. First, we talk about the Citrini paper and why exactly this viral paper is wrong, and we disagree with it. We also talk about what's going on with Block, what's going on with NVIDIA earnings.

We talk about what's going on with Bitcoin and how Bitcoin, blockchain, crypto is going to have a massive resurgence once we get out of this little sideways action that's going on in the market. Jordy's got some very unique thoughts that even I hadn't heard before. And so in this week's episode, he's going to unpack what he thinks is happening, why he thinks it's happening, and what you can do in your portfolio to prepare for it. Here's my conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, let's start with the Citrini piece. I've seen this described as science fiction. I've seen this described as the scariest thing somebody's read. They basically went to 2028 and they wrote backwards saying, look, this is what happened over the last couple of years. And it described a pretty morbid situation where AI has created all this destruction. People have lost all their jobs and software stocks sold off significantly. Do you agree with the piece or do you think that it's somewhat flawed analysis?

well when you're talking about anything three years out it's a bet um and nobody knows here here's here's my take on it first thing is the realities of what i've talked about here and i've written about all year the physical world is not prepared for what they wrote um people have to remember to get to that point there are two forces greater than anything that we can deal with one is the physical upgrade. We don't have the compute and the power for that to happen. Is it theoretically possible if we could snap our fingers and have 100 gigawatts in the United States, then yeah, we'd have these massively powerful data centers and AGI would be happening faster. The problem is to get to that point, we just don't have the ability. We don't have the gas turbines. I don't

need to go through all the things we've talked about. But this is the reason why I think all companies are in a race to get there. So when you're at a point where, let's combine what XYZ did yesterday and say, we fired lots of people, stocks up 25%. When those types of things, which are anecdotal, start happening, where companies are getting valued higher when they can get rid of employees, it says that they want to do this. Meaning, let's not get into the whether they did it because of AI or they did it for some other reason. Let's just say, investors are looking for you're an adopter, you're going to benefit. So that's point one. Point two, which you're going to hear me talk about, I did a subscriber webinar this week where I went through this.

The friction in enterprises, and people have to understand this, there are so many frictions that adoption is not going to happen as fast as what Citrini wrote about. So on the one side, the compute's not there. But I think a bigger issue, having worked for Morgan Stanley, how do they get rid of all the people that fast? Just because AI has the capability of it doesn't mean that they have the internal ability to do this. And I don't just mean from a efficiency basis. Is their data clean enough? Is their data in a situation where they can do this? Will the people, someone has to be running these to some degree. You can throw agents in there, but someone has to be doing the orchestration. They have to know the workflows.

There's a process here that I just don't think people fully grasp that the friction in enterprises This is the reason why I'm so negative on all technology companies. Big, behemoth companies need to adopt the technology for this to go. OpenClaw has opened up a world of entrepreneurs. Those entrepreneurs, they're buying Mac minis. Sold out. Mac studios. Sold out.

OpenClaw. Okay, let's go use Chinese models. They're 20 times cheaper. Like, all of these things are happening, and enterprises are the issue. So, again, I always say this. the reason I got interested in Bitcoin is because of the K-shaped economy. Because I had to find a solution to where the 8 billion people on the planet who are not participating in capitalism start to be able to raise their hand and compete with enterprises. So I will say this again and

again and again. Having worked at a Fortune 500 company, the ability for these companies to just snap their finger and move quickly doesn't exist. But when you're thinking of small companies and their ability to do this. Don't think of Russell 2000 public small companies, entrepreneurs that you meet, that I meet, kids that I know from college that are building stuff. My son, I'm training him. Anyone who needs an intern, my son is being trained by me. I'm literally teaching him how to build stuff on his own. And everyone who's a young kid is going to have open call way before the agents are rolled out, in my opinion, at enterprises. Now, when you see this piece, i think everyone immediately says oh wait a second these stocks may not be as valuable as

uh we thought i i think i've talked with you in the past about this idea of like a billion dollar pdf right so uh when leopold wrote uh his uh his original pdf he raised a billion dollars right there's been a couple of these that people have put out i think will man uh monitis uh is the one who who came up with this idea the citrini piece may be the first trillion dollar piece of content on the internet because it wiped out what ibm was down 40 billion dollars in a day right i mean that's just one company so i don't know what the total market you know kind of impact was but it was probably close to a trillion and so when you look at it from that perspective okay why are software stocks getting re-rated and you've mentioned to me before that it's not so much

are they going to be around it's more so are they going to grow in the future and so maybe describe a little bit about this difference between uh worrying about whether the company survives versus whether the company actually, you know, drives growth. So the best way I want people to visualize this is let's assume, and I got to convert it into something that they understand that's easy to understand. So because so many people have gone to FanDuel and DraftKings and all this, let's take a football game, approximately three hours long. Let's assume that the game actually took a month, and you played for one month straight. And a team is up 20 to 7. But with a month left in the game, the probability of winning has not changed much. It won't change that

much. If the game was a half hour long, and it's 20 to 7, and there's much time, then all of a sudden, the probability of a team winning is heading towards 100%. The reason I bring that up is that's what's happening to all companies that can be disrupted by software. So the game of software used to be a three-month game. It's now being converted into a one-day game. And so the reason things drop is because the probability of them being a growth company in three years drops dramatically the second a vision comes out to anyone. Now, is it justified? I will say, rather than argue as the way a lot of people, particularly ETF people, famous ETF people saying, you got to buy all software, you got to do this. They're not

acknowledging what has changed since November. A lot's changed since November. I want all retail to be in a position where their mindset is once Opus 4.5 came out, the game started to change. When OpenClock came out, the game changed. If you go listen to Ben Horwitz on the Moonshots podcast, he literally said, when OpenClock came out, Silicon Valley changed their view. when you hear that how does a software analyst or someone trading at home not adjust to silicon valley change their view on ai and the disruption that it would be when open claw came out so 4.5 andre andre carpathy writes about it then you get to 4.6 but in between there you have open claw i think what people need to start to realize is it's not some bear case for software

it's a re-rating of that compression of time and i've been spending a lot of time talking to people that when time compresses a long duration asset, the probability of them being around changes. And so private credit is an issue. Private equity has been an issue. Venture capital has been an issue. Is that also the equivalent of like a liquidity discount or premium where if you are long duration illiquid, there's going to be some compression? I think you said something really important here for people there, because is if you're going through software and you can find a company that you think will win with AI for whatever reason, you're happy that they're all getting reset. They're getting down

to multiples that may not make sense based on their history, but they make sense based on a world of AI coming forward, compressed time. But when things get to a 10 PE, they're discounting that they're losers, which means if you can find a company that you think will win, and this is why instead of saying every one of these companies will be fine, the reality is if you can find one, and I believe Palantir is one of them, then that's fine. But Palantir has a multiple closer to 100. Now their earnings are still growing for the enterprise at above 100. So depending on how you value the company and you go through this, you can make an argument. But the multiple is higher, which means the probability of them winning is already built into a higher level. When you have

a company like Salesforce, which got you down close to a 10 PE, same as Ford, which is unthinkable, you've re-rated it to where it's like Ford. Okay, it's never going to grow again. It'll sell cars. They'll sell software, but will they ever be able to grow again and be a growth business? If you believe Salesforce.com in the next two years will grow their earnings significantly and will be able to embrace AI agents, to your point, you now have the chance of making three, four, five times your money. So the odds shift, and this is why I said in the paper I wrote, the equity market for things built on code is starting to look like prediction markets.

And prediction markets, when you're watching a game, if someone's up 20 to 7, but then the other team runs back to kickoff and it's 20 to 14, the probability gaps up. And then if they have an interception next play, it immediately goes up. And that's how prediction markets work. They adjust constantly to new news. So when people see the Citrini piece, should IBM fall, which wasn't on the Citrini piece, it was on Anthropic and COBOL. I don't know, but it didn't give up everything. It didn't go to zero. It just went from, hmm, their business revenues might be disrupted, we'll knock them down 5%, 10%. In their case, it was down 13%, which seems a lot to me, but I don't think it's off by that much. Now, when we see all of this AI stuff,

I think one of the aspects that I keep coming back to is, okay, so you can go on to Cursor or Cloud or whatever, and I can type in natural language, English, and just say, hey you know build me an app that does xyz thing the immediate worry that everyone has is okay well if i could say you know build me a um i don't know build me a docu sign uh clone great but the ability to have a document uploaded and sign it is some of the value of docu sign but there's also permission management the ability to send it to you know uh coordinate across multiple people like it's almost like the last five or 10% of the software is what really has a lot of value to it. And so what I then start to ask myself is how many of these teams internally are going to take the time and

effort to go and actually build out the last five or 10% to get the value. And maybe the example that got me thinking about this is Dan Sondheim from D1 did an interview with the Patrick O'Shaughnessy and in it, they were talking about, well, Dan doesn't believe that software is going to have as much of a headwind because he went and he talked to the model companies, like the model labs. And he asked them, he goes, you know, are you guys building an ERP internally? And they're like, no, we're actually about to sign a contract for a new one. And so he's like, you know, these are like the top model companies, the top software engineers, et cetera. And they're still outsourcing to an ERP. But he's like, but that's a system of record, which may be different than many of

these other software companies. And so how do you think about like what companies will build internally versus maybe it's just the existing large incumbent gets disrupted but it's by a net new you know kind of startup where that's ai enhanced or ai powered and so it's less about like internalizing or bringing this stuff in inside a company and it's more about like who this the providers are are changing i mean no offense to dance on him i i i i don't view this as being a very well thought out situation. It sounds more biased to me than anything. And the reason I say that, there's two parts here. One of them you cut on, the ability of me to build 80% of DocuSign. Great. So I build 80% of it. For that last 20%,

why can't other people build little components to fill in the gap? So there could be 12 companies that fill in the part that i can't do and then my ai agents connect and they run out and do the last piece while i'm sleeping at night like i what i don't understand that people haven't grasped yet is whatever can be built on code can absolutely be built i there's nothing so i'm not arguing that again a big enterprise will get rid of it but that's not the way these companies are valued they're valued for growth and i'm not believing that the frontier models are going to spend their time to get that last nuanced part. But if there's a kid in the Philippines that wants to make $50,000 who wants to do the tiny little part. So let's assume you break down, cook a chef's room. We've

all seen like a really big Michelin star chef restaurant where we've seen them cooking. There's not one person. There's 20 people in there doing different tasks and it all comes into one meal. that is what will be happening with ai agents is they will reach out to each of the different parts overnight it'll be a i mean an immediate thing that you're not doing yourself so part of the problem is oh i don't have the time to go time is compressed to zero the same way when you purchase a house how many middlemen are involved in getting the house closed even if everyone creates okay here's an insurance one here's that it doesn't work until the agents run around and do all the pieces. So whenever I hear this, I agree that an entrepreneur replicating DocuSign or anthropic

replicating DocuSign will not happen. But I do believe that AI agents, when you take 8 billion people that are trying to make very little money, that they can build something bespoke that allows them to do that. And then you can go on GitHub and get that last piece. That is the part that I don't think people have fully thought of is why the importance of AI agents. And again, right now, you're not dealing with 160 IQ agents, but you're dealing with really smart agents. At the end of this year, I mean, I don't know what people are not seeing. The model progress is so fast that we're moving from Opus 4.6, 5, Opus 4.6, OpenClaw. Where are we going to be at the end of the year when that was just over the last two and a half months, the disruption it's

had to software? So when I hear anyone defending software at this point, the first question I ask is, did you expect OpenClaw? Did you expect this? None of the enterprises are going to use OpenClaw right now. But every individual at home, regardless of their background in IT, can do it. So the entrepreneurial side is growing. And that's what Ben Horowitz said. When OpenClaw came out, the amount of people that came in, developers, to right now with ideas related to OpenClaw, because it spawns a new competitor right off the bat nvidia monster uh earnings stock sell-off what's going on jensen is the godfather of ai he's supposed to carry the market if the way he goes is the way the market goes monster numbers but negative reaction in stocks

so i covered some of this in in um in my webinar so for people that subscribe they they saw a lot of things. But the main point that I was bringing out was that we're seeing multiple compression happen in the software side. We've seen massive dispersion this year. It's why my turbulence model started freaking out. The turbulence model just said, whoa, we got a lot of names making 52-week lows. We got a lot of names making 52-week highs. And the correlation amongst all these things, which historically is fairly tight and was until recently, it's now shaking. What I believe is happening, because it's not just software now, 10-year rates are now below 4% as of this morning. They're below the 200-week moving average for the first time since

the rate hikes in 2022. Credit is widening. Whether people want to accept it or not, the regime has shifted. In my opinion, that's what I covered in there. And I think we're in a survive and thrive mode now. I do think people forget that in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025, we had deleveraging shocks and all of them, all of those needed something from the government at some point. So in 2020, we got the fire hosing of liquidity. In 2022, we had the Fed pivot of, okay, we've gone far enough. A lot of people disagreed with it. That marked the bottom in Bitcoin and in this, and it started the next rally. In 2023, we had Silicon Valley Bank. We had a run on it. All the banks were going out of business. Bitcoin came out of that. So for the crowd out there in Bitcoin, the survive and thrive

mode of which I'm going through now, it's really important to be ready for the thrive mode. And in 2025, we had Liberation Day. And what happened? The government said, we're just kidding. Tariffs are not going to be that bad. We'll wait till July. At some point, the deleveraging starts to infect everything. And this is my belief. And this is why I said, if people are just out there saying buy software and they're not acknowledging that there's a multiple re-rating, you have to remember that right now the market cap of the S&P 500 related to GDP, which was the reason I said that last year they couldn't afford for this to go down, it's at 220%. Stock market's been going up faster than GDP, which historically, it's called the Buffett indicator for a reason. He's

not buying any stocks. And I think the reason he's not buying any stocks is because in his mind, everything is expensive and the reality is when you do it on a price to sales basis and you think about what's happening to software arguably the most important position in everyone's portfolio particularly when you include the hyperscalers but even without the hyperscalers x hyperscaler software is by far the most important and it's a u.s dominated thing so when you move down software and you see credit widening and tenure rates going down they're building in the probability that there's another survive regime coming i believe the probability of the survive regime because of what i mentioned turbulence real things from open clone all this which i talked about

i believe things are speeding up now and you're going to see a rise in volatility a move lower in rates and whether we need the fed to act or not i do think the deleveraging signs that have spread to credit private equity things we talked about blue owl all of them this is starting to smell a little bit like another one of those survive modes and i think people should start paying more attention they can watch my videos they can sign up but i'm going to spend a lot more time on this because i think coming out of this i expect the next regime to be one of the more mind-blowing uh because i do believe ai has reached a level where it's disrupting far more than it's benefiting mind-blowing in what way

you and i've been doing this show actually we're getting close to our one year anniversary congratulations wow we have married one year longest relationship i've had is paulina fine with that on content um i i wanted to do this with you because the people that know me the best before this were the traditional finance people. I say my views. I'm wrong sometimes. I'm right sometimes. But I'm not scared to take a stance and to take a view. And I think in the times that we had done the show, the few times before it became a weekly thing, I think you appreciated it. I think the viewers did. um i'm gonna say something now that is geared for both communities and when i say both i've

gotten to know the crypto community i like them a lot as you know a lot um it's it's a much much more fun happier hanging out with them than the trad oh i love them and um and for the people i've become very friendly with that i exchange texts with that are building businesses the entrepreneurs nfts my new kind of crew that i'm i'm involved with i love them they're great people i believe coming out of this one everything that i personally believe bitcoin would be the asset of the future that every traditional finance person would get into there needed to be two things that happened one was there needed to be a fundamental argument that grew over time a narrative as you say traditional finance people love narratives if they believe there's a reason

to get involved with something it's much easier the whole crowd of i don't know what bitcoin is i don't want to be involved in it it was angry and then gradually over the last two years i've seen people go give me the story on it it's happened a couple times this week like because i'm talking about it and on the webinar this week i'm like this is what i'm watching for when bitcoin's going to go up and when it does in this one it will start for the same reason it did over the survive and thrive time the government will have to do something to stop the asset deflation okay but number two the narrative has grown and ben horowitz talked about it jeff curry talked about it on macro voices and imad mostak talked about it with raul powell all three of them

said the same thing a commodity person an ex-hedge fund person who bought an ai business and ben harwood's one of the prominent people in vc both said ai cannot survive without crypto it can't grow without crypto for everyone in the traditional finance world go listen to them commodity person vc person it can't survive and the reason it can't survive is because the fiat system financial guardrails cannot handle the speed of ai and when you get to agents that's the first thing the The second thing, which I say repeatedly, and the reason I'm getting more involved in NFTs, cryptography becomes super important when you can't tell the person calling you is your wife, is your grandmother.

And we're at that stage now. When hackings are happening in countries, you have to have this place where this is going on. So I always believed that that would happen at some point, that people would realize that when A got to this point, you needed this. But there's two more components that have evolved in my brain that are now, when I see AI, you try to adapt to the news. Something happened this week with the relationship between artificial intelligence and the government. We've had a lot of episodes.

The Venezuela raid. All the stories about how technologically advanced it was. Discombobulator. AI is going to allow you to come up with lots of discombobulators of all forms. it's a nuclear weapon. It allows you to go in and do what that situation did. At the same time, Anthropic is in a fight with the Defense Department. Anthropic says, we're taking off our safety measures. Well, hold on. Let's break it down for a second. So what you're arguing is AI is this nuclear weapon because it is going to give us superhuman intelligence that

can be applied from a national defense, a security, et cetera, standpoint. Separate to that, anthropic said hey we are going to take off these safety measures because of the speed of development that they need to keep up with their competitors but now these two things are coming to a head because the department of war called mario uh or uh called dario into uh the principal's office and said hey you can't tell us what we can use the technology for he then uh jumped the gun and did the old well i'm just going to make it all public and then i saw emil michael call him a liar publicly is getting nasty out there the the relationship between the government ai has been getting closer and closer during this and now it's starting to come to a head and the reason i

bring it up is i've always believed that ai would get to the point that the government would have to have a huge influence on it like a regulated utility and it's not a coincidence that ai is considered electricity so if that happens what's the valuation of the hyperscalers well compression what do you think happens with the government i again i think the tools are getting so powerful and at the end of this year they're going to be even more powerful that the government can't allow they're going to need to be involved to a much greater degree on the decision making where the focus is what happened in mexico again the k-shaped economy you have eight billion people on the planet that compared to people in saint bart's and yachts there's a big difference and

now they have all of them have a nuclear weapon in their possession and there's no way to stop it it can be in any country on the planet so when you see the situation in mexico this is what makes the quantum argument towards crypto so ridiculous agent swarms which i talked about are now real so you're going to see more hacks and at the same time that all this is going on software is already being disrupted and re-rating. So I've said before, the time to be long Bitcoin for the parabolic move, the time for the entrepreneurs to really start pressing the issue is when investors of the world that control the world's money can invest in growth anymore. And the reason they can't invest in growth is what I said, AI is compressing time and it's making everything

binary. Bitcoin doesn't get hurt with that. It doesn't get hurt with agent swarms. It's built on cryptography, like all of the things that were the benefits of it, the scarcity, that's what will happen. So I believe, back to the point, the mind blowing part of this will be the rotation that is forced to happen. As we come out of the inevitable, central bank, government, whatever has to help the market if assets fall. If I'm wrong, it's because the assets just go to all time highs again, or we just kind of go sideways here all year in the S&P 500, while the rest of world does fine and where Sandisk goes straight up and Micron goes straight up. Markets don't move like that to me. They actually start to follow. And I believe the software stocks are

saying a more important story than the memory shortage on this for the time being. And I think people need to survive to be able to thrive. Today's episode is brought to you by BitGet. BitGet is the world's first universal exchange, serving over 125 million users with access to over 2 million crypto tokens. In stratified markets such as 100 plus tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX, and precious metals like gold and silver. They officially opened its TradFi trading suite on January 5th, 2026, and has already hit the milestone of $4 billion of daily volume just days later. Users can now trade 79 instruments across global macro assets, such as Forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities directly with USDT, all within their

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account. Search for Bitcoin IRA in the App Store or visit BitcoinIRA.com slash Pomp, and you can join 200 000 americans on their journey to upgrade their retirement that's bitcoinira.com slash pomp to upgrade your retirement today so the government according to anthropic wanted to use ai to do two things so anthropic basically said hey we are used in all these different use cases inside of the government but the two things we're not comfortable with are uh they said domestic mass surveillance and the use of their ai models in autonomous weapons now i find it very funny because uh i don't think sam altman's writing that blog post sam altman probably saw that blog post and said uh hey department of war what do you need you got revenue you want to invest in

my company right there's a very different kind of approach i think coming from them um i do think that when you describe something as domestic mass surveillance you're going to generate quite a bit of public support in terms of hey um you know we don't want that i don't know what the use case was we there was no detail right so like who knows who who's saying what or what's true whatever the autonomous weapons i think is regardless of whether it's anthropic open ai grok you know gemini deep sea go any of them that is coming and we saw it in ukraine with the drones yeah and i don't think people quite are ready for that to be a topic of discussion where you know if you think about the autonomous dogs and autonomous maybe we should call them robot dogs right because

i don't know how autonomous they really are right now but when you see that like these are being deployed there's a famous uh the picture or video of uh i think it's at mar-a-lago and um they've got the dog and they've got the secret service guys and it's just kind of like look it's now like a dual layered thing of humans plus machines but when they're autonomous and let's say they have weapons and they can shoot i mean we get we have people still arguing over what happened in minnesota with the protester and you know did the officer make the right decision or not to sit you know all this stuff well the robot doesn't talk you can't put the robot in jail that is a world that i think is very obvious it's going to happen on the other hand though i do think it makes

people really uncomfortable if they're like hey how is this getting built yeah and i'll i mean everything you described and then go back to the point that this is all now and then in five years humanoids i mean i this is why when you look at the s&p 500 and people have this conversation and I go, should multiples be at all-time highs if we don't know what five years from now is going to look like? So instead of looking at citrini as it caused the panic, maybe what it's doing, which I believe it is, is investors are starting to recognize every day, company by company, and then report by report, that they have been thinking about the disruption that is coming.

so what you're mentioning and all of this stuff for criminals like there'll be these things in the subway i mean they'll all be there but we kind of sort of have it like this is what i keep coming back to is have you seen the like nypd they have these like uh they're not robots but they're kind of like um i don't know column type things like little like bots or whatever and they sit there they have cameras essentially and i think they have a speaker on them they don't have weapon and you know whatever but like okay there's plenty of cameras all over new york city's probably one of the most surveilled you know cities in america um we know about the dogs right you go through this stuff it's like it's not that crazy because we're already you know down this path with

many of these different things right well there's a big difference in my opinion between cameras and a physical deterrent and that's where i think this fits in nobody wants to have a dog come up and bite their leg and hold them until the police come. If you've done something wrong when it's been spelled out, I don't know what the rules are going to look like, but I do believe there's a difference between cameras, which still involve investigative work, which takes people. It's a less thing to actually catch someone as they do something and then have them sitting there with something, you know, on their dog that like shoots a net. Yeah. Like in a cartoon bites their leg and just holds on until it's over. I mean, again, pit bulls can kill humans. So

i don't think people are thinking about what dogs like robotic dog with powerful jaws like that will do and no one's going to want that so physical deterrence will deter a lot of this and then once it spreads it's like you can't get away with the stuff you used to get away with crime will go down in my opinion i like not cyber crime but physical crime in there so i think there's stages of this and everything that we're talking about again if people just break it down to their investments, you have to think about the way you're invested. Because I'm telling you, the way the market is reacting, it's just coming to terms with something you and I have talked about repeatedly for months. That is what market multiples are about. When you look at Brazil

and you look at Europe, their PEs are much lower. And their PEs are much lower because they didn't benefit from software. Now we have the US PEs that are much higher. And price to sales in the S&P 500. If people looked at a chart of it, they'd be scared to death. I mean, we're trading at three and a half times sales. This was before the great financial crisis, one and a half, like that's what's driven the multiple expansion has been the hope of the future. So if you're questioning the future, multiple should come down. And I think that's what the market is doing. And I will replay one thing. I think Donald Trump and Scott Besson were very, very clear in February and March of last year, before Liberation Day, that they didn't care if the

stock market came down, as long as the people that haven't benefited the most did well. Well, there's two ways for that scenario to play out. One is to try and massively rise the bottom end of the K. And they've been trying to do that, but it's very, very challenging. The second part is for the wealthy part of the K to suffer a little bit. If a billionaire goes from a billionaire to half a billion dollars, and it happens because of investments going down in what they own, that's very different than the government coming in and taking, taxing them and taking the money. I don't think the second one is possible. I do think the first one is possible from AI. Only reason I bring that up is you could have what's going on in the S&P. You've had a

dramatic fall in software stocks, but the S&P is unchanged. So maybe we can kind of get through this K-shaped alligator jaws closing without a completely horrible deflationary act. But I think crypto comes out as the winner of this, and I'll keep saying it. I think crypto, the amount of reality check that people need for the rails that are necessary for this and the cryptography, which is necessary for deep fakes and everything to actually know what's real i don't think people have come to terms go listen to ben harwitz on moonshots in a world where there's an abundance of fake information you know we were talking earlier uh nikita beer who is the head of product at twitter um he came out with this what seemed like a pretty wild claim at the time saying you know

within 90 days every single communication channel that you use is going to be flooded with so much spam that they will basically be unusable to the average person and he was talking about your text messages your phone calls your email you know a lot of people like dude come on right like by the way spam calls are bad no one likes them but i still use my phone i just saw a kind of a 15 day update or so they tweeted and there was an individual who basically is using i think it's the zillow api and they are using artificial intelligence plus the zillow data to essentially just shotgun approach, low ball offers on homes at like 70, 80% discounts. And it's just like law of large numbers. Like somebody is going to hit the bid, but that's a lot of spam getting put out.

But my guess is they're doing it this way because they can personalize it. So now they can pull the address. They can see what the listed prices, they can put a 70% discount. They can do things that make this look not so generic and therefore it makes it much more interesting. What happens a world where you don't know if you're actually talking to ai or not you don't know if the person calling you is ai or not like it this seems to be really where you think bitcoin and blockchain and all this stuff becomes almost essential for verification purposes and i i not only think it's essential i think it has to happen and it may not be today but the entrepreneurs of the future will be combining their ideas with crypto so when you get into world coin and identity

you can connect a phone when your phone rings just like a blue check mark you know who it is and you actually know who it is because it's coming through or you literally have a code word or whatever it is to make sure uh if you don't have a code word with your wife you should i have one i actually have told multiple people that i think that code words not only like uh your personal relationships but your professional relationships is going to be one of these things of um you know sometimes you solve you solve technology problems with non-technology solutions yep you know i always laugh that uh you ever heard the story of the winklevoss twins when they bought the 11 million dollars of bitcoin i think it's uh digital gold or whatever or maybe it's

bitcoin billionaires whatever the book is and they go in their apartment and they're going to generate the private key, but they're so paranoid that they won't do it until they put sheets or like a blanket over their head and everything. So even if somebody was looking outside the window, but it's like the most non-technical solution to, you know, protecting $11 billion in cyberspace, you know, whatever. Right. And so same thing here of, you know, we're so worried about AI yet have a word, right. Have a, have a phrase that you have with all of these people that is going to actually be able to prove you know uh legitimacy yeah it's the human element i mean we're not at the stage yet where if you walk into someone and you see them you don't know who it is that'll be down

the road um we have humanoids and everything else that can change into whatever someone looks like that's way down the road right now where we are it's like this is still the merging of the traditional world that we know and the safeguards that we can use combined with how do we use in this case cryptography the the world again i i i forget i guess that almost the exact line and i hate saying it over and over again but i really want to emphasize that if you're going to listen to people in silicon valley who believe in crypto and yes if i said oh they could be ben harwitz is never preaching his book this is a belief he had in both the importance of open claw agents but then also saying for ai to fulfill its ultimate potential it needs crypto it can't do without it

that's that's all we're saying is for all of these things cryptography is needed for the fake side and then the speed is necessary for the guard rails and so when jeff curry talks about how this will speed up the velocity of money and open up through tokenization the ability to trade all rare earth everything as opposed to only a few things in the industrial world actually being set up in futures terms, which is the truth. When Iman Mostak is talking about, no, this is reality, like human beings cannot compete with AI anymore. It can't happen. So instead of saying one company will win, which has been the argument that I didn't agree with, I honestly think we've come to the point that people are starting to recognize that maybe what ends up happening again is the

8 billion people are able to create things much faster than bigger places. And the reason is it's happening already. A hundred percent. It's, um, it's a very exciting time. It's also a little bit of a nerve wracking time. You know, I talked to, uh, I have four things that I've taken away over the last 60 days or so. One, every single person I know that is intelligent and is ambitious and all this stuff, they feel like they do not have enough time to stay on top of all of the advancements. So they feel like each day they are devoting more and more attention and effort to trying to keep up with all of the advancements and they feel like they're falling behind.

The second thing is they are all working harder today than they have worked in a very long time because they feel like there's a moment of acceleration. And if you don't accelerate yourself, then you will be behind. The third thing is most of the easy tasks are being automated away. And so as a percentage of their daily work,

it's being filled more and more by hard problems that the machines can't do. and therefore it is more difficult at work every day because you're just doing working on harder problems and then the fourth thing is uh they are all questioning why am i doing all of this if money doesn't matter or if we're not gonna have to work or you know but like what is the end game here am i just accelerating and in two years we're gonna look back and be like well we didn't have to do any of that um it's very weird right i mean this this is uh again the exciting but it's, it's very weird dynamic. So for points one, two, and three, um,

it's my life. Um, the reason I do the video, the sub stack, the HRV sub stack, um, the subscriber stuff is number one. Uh, people can't keep up. And for most of the people, I think that, that follow my stuff, they work at a job. I'm, I get thanked more than anything. And thank you to everyone who not only thanks the work that I put in, because it does take a lot of time to be able to give everyone a recap of what happened in the week. Also talk about markets, come here. All of these things take time. I mean, I write three to four papers a week and I have a very high bar.

I don't like putting garbage out. And I certainly don't like putting things out that you'll read in the New York Times or the FT. I'm trying to create things for the subscribers. um, I came up with a paper this week, just thinking, and again, I need time to think. And this was about debt and equity becoming one. And I see that as happening. And this is a really important part. Um, you know, I, I think the New York fed should spend time on this paper when, when I send it out. And the reason is because if debt and equity are merging together,

which is what I think is happening for a lot of different places, that's a very different like world and it's very hard for me to get into the details so i have to write it down and then i send it out and i get people to engage with me and i'll talk to very sophisticated smart people about the papers and that leads to me getting new ideas and going through it so i'm straddling the world of people that i've gotten to know um i like to learn from them but to your point on the fourth one not for one second at this time do i want to make money of course i'm an entrepreneur, I want to I want to make money. But what I really want to do, which I couldn't do before, if I can help people navigate the financial world, and feel confident that they're

going to come out of this, okay, by explaining both the downside and the upside and not being a perma anything. So I'm negative right now. Okay, great. But that's for the next month or two, maybe three months, maybe four months, I'll just keep looking and providing stuff. And for the last four weeks. The people have watched me and been like, well, you're starting to get a little more negative. What's going on? I'm like, okay, life is not good every day. There are cycles. And in the end, do I believe it'll be fine? Yes. And do I believe the crypto world will come out of this? As Paul Tudor Jones said, coming out of a crisis, you want to invest in the fastest horse in the race. Well, the fastest horse in the race coming out of this cycle is crypto. And this time,

I don't think it's going to stop because of what Ben Horowitz talked about and what I said. So I'm passionate about what I'm doing. And if you're kids, you're passionate about what you do. I think going into a job and using the office as an analogy where you're coming in every day and you're checking in and you're leaving at five o'clock, that is not the world that you want to be happy with. And I don't know anyone that's happy about it. You want to have some trading side. You want to have some learning side, some AI side. You have those capabilities. If I were people, I would focus more on their portfolio and make sure they're not just sitting around, not paying attention to it. And number two, whatever your job is, you're collecting income

at that point. It's very important to collect income where you do with it, where you invest it is important. But then the other side is use AI every single day, spend time watching what I'm doing with it. I'll, my video series will be out shortly. One of them is already out, but all five of them will be with the hope of training young people and people that want to learn how to use these tools in a very different way so you're like um the uh the fun party guy who is doing dry january right now right nobody likes sober jordy we like jolly jordy like we want you you know we want to walk in the party and you're already three beers deep with a beer funnel in your hand and you're like uh encouraging everyone to have a good time and let loose

uh sober jordy just as you know come on let me let me tell you something again my mentality of uh of that i love the chaotic times yeah because when okay the the person you mentioned throwing all the the bids out on on houses yeah when i came back from brazil in 1990 january of 1999 right after the devaluation i knew i was coming back i waited until the devaluation i bought my house in october of 98 by having a lowball offer because ltcm was happening in i bought my home uh in maine on j on january 12 2001 the day after 9 11 i had an offer on a house the point is when you have chaos or bad things happen in life they create opportunities always for people that are investing the best opportunities you'll get are being in there if you believe bitcoin's going to

a million you'd rather be 20 000 tomorrow than a hundred thousand because trust me you can do do the math. 10 times and 50 times are very different numbers. So if you get the opportunity and you believe in the future, and that's what you're investing towards, what a little chaotic time of three months. Remember what Liberation Day was last year. We said, calm down. That's what I'll be saying again at some point. The world's not going to end. This is not a systemic risk. There's not that much debt except at the government level. It's very easy for a facility to be put in place to deal with the private credit. So when private credit and software become this big overriding fear if people start worrying about ai companies and blah blah blah

i don't worry about it ai is a very powerful good thing people are going to live longer they're going to be happier i'll be drunk again soon so so sober geordie will be back at some point we all love drunk geordie all right that's it for this week thank you guys so much we'll do it again next week.