The Pomp Podcast - The AI Shock Is About to Reprice Bitcoin | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: January 10, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss the shift toward higher growth and lower inflation..., how AI-driven productivity is reshaping the economy, housing, labor markets, and why energy and critical minerals are becoming central to global geopolitics. We also break down what these trends mean for markets and long-term investment portfolios.=======================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp=======================Bitwise is one of the largest and fastest-growing crypto asset managers, with more than $15 billion in client assets across an expanding suite of investment solutions—including the world’s largest crypto index fund—plus products spanning Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, and crypto equities. In addition to managing assets, Bitwise helps investors stay informed about the fast-moving crypto market. Every week, CIO Matt Hougan breaks down what’s happening in crypto in five minutes or less. Read the latest at https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos. Certain Bitwise investment products may be subject to the extreme risks associated with investing in crypto assets. Visit https://bitwiseinvestments.com/disclosures to learn more.=======================In this episode, Pomp spotlights easyBitcoin.app—the app that pays you 1% extra on recurring buys, 2% annual bitcoin rewards, and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it now for iOS or Android at https://easybitcoin.onelink.me/F1zP/klc4v1p8 and start earning today. Your capital is at risk. Crypto markets are highly volatile. This content is informational and not financial advice.=======================Timestamps:0:00 – Intro1:57 – Is the economy entering high growth, low inflation?4:17 – Could GDP really reach 10%?9:09 – What this economic setup means for investors12:36 – AI chips explained16:44 – Data centers, power limits, & space20:04 – AI, energy, & shifting global alliances27:16 – Geopolitics: Iran, Cuba, Mexico, Greenland30:54 – President Trump’s housing plan explained33:20 – Will falling home prices hurt voters?38:01 – Humans and humanoid robots working together44:01 – Biggest risks & personal concerns47:43 – A simple AI product that shows what’s coming52:09 – How to build powerful AI prompts55:16 – Why building software beats buying it now1:03:17 – AI consulting and how to get involved1:05:13 – Live show announcement

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano many of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them
Starting point is 00:00:42 for hours while i ask questions in an effort to learn so it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast my goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. That's the
Starting point is 00:01:24 societal thing that has me focused on Bitcoin, because I believe capitalism is ending and people don't want to hear that. But I believe it's ending because artificial intelligence and Mark Andreessen talks about this. This is the most unbelievable technology investment like scene I've seen. But the competition is intense and the ability of getting a moat around your business is impossible. You need more storage. You need more places to run these things. The hyperscalers need data centers to supply that. There is a bottleneck that is happening. So the companies, in my opinion, that are going to work this year. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great episode with Jordy Visser. It is a blast and you're going to learn something. We talk about
Starting point is 00:02:02 what's going on with economic policy, high growth, low inflation, housing, why President Trump seems so aggressive on geopolitical stage, what's going on with all of the rare earths and various minerals around the world. And then we also talk about AI, humanoid robots, what's happening with the acceleration, how productivity and growth are coming back. And ultimately, we talk about what's going on in the market and what's going to happen to your investment portfolio. We have a ton of fun and I think you're really going to enjoy this one. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, we got a lot to get through here. So let's talk the economy first. We now are starting to get a lot of data points that I think are showing the Trump economic policies
Starting point is 00:02:36 are working. Now, there's plenty of people who don't like the president. They don't like a lot of things that he's doing. But if we just look at the data, it seems like we have backed ourselves into a high growth, low inflation economy. Is that your read on GDP growth, the inflation, the jobs number, et cetera, or do you have some different view? I don't think at this point, I mean, things could change. I don't think they're going to change much,
Starting point is 00:02:59 but there's no way to get around the fact that inflation has been far lower than people thought. And then when you add in, and this is an important part for where we are today, I think people just, they've got short memories. um most economists were calling for a recession great depression yeah um and they were calling for stagflation at at the best case meaning well we're gonna have a lower growth and we're gonna have inflation running on the high side because tariffs are gonna go through well both of those
Starting point is 00:03:29 were not only wrong they were wrong in a way that uh and i i wrote about this this week i basically said capitalism is effectively fractured and ending. And what I meant by that, as you read through it, is we are having 4% GDP. The last two quarters that we have GDP numbers for combined were over 4%. Nominal GDP in Q3 was annualized at 8%. And during those six months, we created zero jobs and today we got the payroll number but again it's you know it's it's low numbers and we revised down more than we created this month from prior months so there's no way to refute the fact that the labor market is soft gas at the pump is down to the lowest level in a few years and at the same time housing or rents are coming down across the country so we have
Starting point is 00:04:24 declining inflation and now what people are starting to talk about and this is why i'm not going to give the credit to Trump in terms of the overall situation. I do think by the end of this year, people will start to realize that productivity gains are going up. And the question is how much of this is around artificial intelligence. And I think a really, really high part of it is about artificial intelligence. Yeah. I always, as I've looked through this, think about the government's job in a weird way with the economy is to create the ingredients or the inputs as best they can for the private sector to run into the end zone, if you will. And one of the things that seems to be at play here
Starting point is 00:05:07 is everyone evaluated, let's just take the tariffs, kind of isolate that as one example. Everyone academically said, okay, if you raise tariffs, that means that you are going to raise consumer prices. Theoretically, that makes sense. I have a lot of things I wrote about where I said, well, if you go back and you look, That's not actually what happens, right?
Starting point is 00:05:30 If you go and you look at just tariffs alone, you can see that, well, the Chinese manufacturer eats a little bit of it. Then the exporter eats a little bit of it. Then the logistics company eats a little bit of it. The importer eats a little bit of it. And there are still, there can be an impact to the consumer.
Starting point is 00:05:45 It's just way lower than people think. If you raise tariffs 10%, you don't get a 10% increase in consumer prices. Now I saw, and I apologize, I always get his name incorrect, but alliances uh i think it's muhammad el-ayran el-aryan el-aryan um he was on cnbc recently and he talked about the fact that the consumer's been the least affected right basically this idea that the companies would raise the prices if they thought they could just the elasticity of demand
Starting point is 00:06:10 is not there and therefore that they're kind of eating that but i think that the tariffs also when you evaluate what happened it's like okay the economists were wrong but also they were not taking into account this whole deflationary force of ai and the productivity and like so you have to kind of evaluate the entire thing yep i don't think you can cut out and say okay you know 5.4 percent uh according to lana fed uh gdp now number for q4 uh 100 basis points goes to ai 100 basis points goes here whatever and so the question becomes if the ai crowd is correct and we get this like exponential growth, Elon says GDP could be 10%. Is that a crazy number? I mean, it's crazy in the fact that it's unthinkable, but at the same time,
Starting point is 00:06:57 you know, whenever I do onsite presentations, I always talk about the fact that you should think the unthinkable because AI is moving at such a fast pace and the cost of labor is such a big part of kind of the GDP side of what we do, meaning if GDP is 120 trillion, it's estimated that compensation is 60 trillion across the globe. Well, if you're going to take, if you're going to replace 60 trillion with AI
Starting point is 00:07:24 over the course of the next five years, not overnight for people who go, well, then there'll be no consumption. But the consumption, for better or worse, has been exacerbated where it's dominated by the top 10% of the people, not only in the country, but really across the globe. So the consumer doesn't fall off. So when Mohamed El-Erian talks about the consumer still spending, not all consumers are still spending and contributing the way that they were. One of the things that I think people should pay attention to on this conversation, the tariffs have done another thing.
Starting point is 00:07:52 And so for Q4 GDP, the estimates so far from an Atlanta GDP now are close to six percent. Now, the reason I think this number, yeah, and six percent. So the reason it's up there, we're still early in the data counting. So this is very early. But the reason is because the trade deficit is falling. And again, the trade deficit is the other side of this. We've been running a deficit trade deficit in the country for a long time. that has led to a capital account surplus, meaning the money leaves the US, it goes to these other countries, the other countries come in and they buy our securities. So we have a
Starting point is 00:08:26 capital. Well, the S&P underperformed the rest of the world last year, the dollar underperformed last year. And I think this is one of the things people are going to have to get used to is my belief is that we are in the early stages, as I've talked about, that the main theme is that AI will make things more productive. You're going to see profit margins continue to hang on the upside. But I think the rest of the world, because the cost of coding is going to zero, the ability for anyone to do it has become ubiquitous. That means companies around the world that are more bloated, that have run their businesses in Europe where they're not allowed to fire people. One of the greatest things for profit margins is if you have a bloated business,
Starting point is 00:09:06 it's much easier to make your profit margins go up with AI when you're starting from 10% than if you're starting from 75%. And I think that's what we're starting to see because the companies that at 75%, they're either coding companies are being disrupted by AI because software is now ubiquitous or they're the hyperscalers and they're having to spend for more power. So I do think we're at a situation where everything is turning on its head. And 10% to me is not out of the question as a potential number, but I think it's because GDP as a calculation does not take into account intangibles. And I think when they go back and they relook at this, things were going a lot faster than we thought. So what's interesting to me is the administration pretty much came out and
Starting point is 00:09:45 said they wanted to go after that trade deficit, right? And when they did it, obviously all the critics came yelling and screaming. Now, if you go back, there was a bunch of videos. I think we even talked about it on one of the episodes where people had, you know, Hillary Clinton or Chuck Schumer or whatever talking 20 years ago about the trade deficits being this huge problem, whatever. So like, I don't think it's a secret to either side of the aisle that this has been a problem for a while. I just think they didn't believe we could address it. It does seem like the tariffs or being successful in addressing that. Now, the question becomes,
Starting point is 00:10:15 if we continue down this path and we do get GDP growing, we do keep inflation relatively low and we're addressing the trade deficit, what happens in the market, right? You talked a little bit about the S&P underperforming, but if I'm sitting as an investor, do I need to address anything in my portfolio?
Starting point is 00:10:32 Do I need to change anything if that is the scenario that plays out? Yeah, and I think we're starting to see it. And, you know, I'm writing about this a lot. The outlook paper I did for this year was all on the physical upgrade of the economy. But I always try to give people things they can listen to. It's very hard to say, hey, listen to Moonshots. There's a three-hour podcast with Elon Musk.
Starting point is 00:10:53 It's excellent, though. It's fantastic. And if you listen to it, forget about his conversations on Mars and his conversations on all the things you don't want to listen to. He made a statement in there, which is really going to impact the investments that will work this year. And I'm going to talk a lot about this in the video over the weekend, but he said we've reached the physical limits for AI on the power side and that power is the ultimate constraint. He also said we have infinite demand for power, that we're at a point where the AI needs to get to AGI to get to all these things will never stop.
Starting point is 00:11:29 But where we are now, after two years of the leaders of the stock market being the data center names, it wasn't just NVIDIA. It was GE, Vernova. It was everybody who was involved in the construction of the data center, the transformer suppliers, the Siemens Energy, the Mitsubishi. So you go through transformers, you go through switching gear, you go through all of these different components. And then eventually, you get to where we did in starting in September of last year, and this was the inflection point. So I believe that when you have a theory on the markets in terms of an inflection point, you'll start to see it. Now, quality really got hurt badly in the second half last year, we started to see small caps out, outperform large caps. And we started
Starting point is 00:12:12 to see the mag seven run into mud. And I think that's going to be a theme for the entire year, I believe the S&P 500 will see earnings growth of at least 15% this year, I think the S&P will be up 15%, but I think the top 40% where there is absolutely a bubble of concentration will underperform. Now, if they're flat to down 5%, those top 40%, but the market's up 15, you can do the math yourself. If the bottom 60% are making up for the down five, that means these things are all up over 20%. That is a change. And that's the point that you go through. I think people have to adjust to the fact that we have reached the constraints. The models will get better every six months as they have, because the chip efficiency is growing rapidly. Rubin
Starting point is 00:12:55 was announced at CES this week by NVIDIA. We have Blackwell rolling out this year. Only about 20% of the chips inside the data centers are Blackwell. They're far more efficient than the Hopper. All right. So before we get into this chip thing, I think just let's help people understand what's happening, both in terms of the chips themselves and then this like rollout. So right now there are uh the majority of chips generally are these hopper uh base chips then you have blackwell's which um maybe we use a car analogy exactly uh you know you can start with a honda and then you kind of get upgraded a little bit more maybe you've got a little bit of a nicer uh maybe a porsche yep and then there's the promise or what was announced uh recently of
Starting point is 00:13:37 you know the like most amazing one of one ferrari that eventually will come out as well And that transition, you're saying 80% is Hopper, kind of the current majority version, and the Blackwells as they're rolling out. What is the efficiency gain just in that iteration change? So when you get to the point, Blackwell, let's say it goes from a 10 gigawatt, so 10 gigawatts of power to do the AI we're doing now. That's not the actual number, but let's just say that's what it was. So you're now going with Blackwell down to only 5 gigawatts necessary. So it cuts it in half. Cuts it in half.
Starting point is 00:14:13 Okay. Rubin, which was announced, will take it down to about one. So it's a 90% reduction. 90% reduction. From the current version to what is, I guess, going to come out in 2027. 2027, yeah. So the reality is, even if we never build another data center other than the Blackwells that are rolling out this year, that percentage of the overall power usage will go from 20% to 30% to 40%.
Starting point is 00:14:36 Colossus II, Musk's, you know, next part of Colossus is supposed to be done in the first quarter. He talked about it on the, on the interview. That's a massive gain. So that's why the models and you use the car, let's, let's go further back than a Honda. And let's say when you left horses and you started with cars and the first car is the hopper, then you get to a Porsche, which is the Rubin. Well, the first car is going a max of 15 miles an hour. And now the Porsche is going at 150 miles an hour. That's what you're talking about. So you're getting more perform performance per the per the watt and that's what jensen yuang talks about the reason that's important the models get better you and i see it we love using them and i love using them more well
Starting point is 00:15:15 goldman sachs morgan stanley eli lily uh every company you can think of is going to start rolling out ai agents well when you start rolling those out the usage goes up well you need more you need more storage you need more places to run these things the hyperscalers need data centers to supply that. There is a bottleneck that is happening. So the companies, in my opinion, that are going to work this year, energy companies, because we need energy. And now it's all energy companies because of Venezuela, because of Greenland, because of defense, which I'm sure we'll get to. It's a major theme for me, but I think energy, we need power. It's not going away and they're going to find ways to get it. Second thing is you're going to see financials,
Starting point is 00:15:55 profitability store. You're going to see AI drug discovery. So the pharmaceuticals are going to be involved in this. Insurance companies, go through the list. Anybody that's a paper pusher that can benefit from AI is going to see their margins increase. And here's the story. The same way when ChatGPT came out, if you had the forward look to go, oh my God, we're going to need tons of GPUs. The gift that keeps on giving for the next three years is once efficiency gains start, I want people to think about this as Ozempic. You take that first pill, you lose a little bit of weight. As long as you stay on it, you're going to keep losing weight until you get to you're as efficient in terms your body as you can be the same thing's going to happen with profit
Starting point is 00:16:32 margins once you get more compute and you're replacing hiring and your profit margins are rising as a company that's been bloated three years from now it's going to be even better so that story people are going to start focusing on companies that probably have a value component where estimate revisions are going higher this is a major shift and i've said it before the biggest risk for this year is the size of growth funds versus the size of commodity funds, the size of growth versus value, the size of quant strategies that are momentum based. I think this is a massive shift that will last for more than a year, three years. This bottleneck will never go away. And Lon Musk said it, we can't get power fast enough. Now he is, I think, I don't know if it started as
Starting point is 00:17:18 a joke or not but he's now starting to talk about data centers in space and uh it wouldn't be believable unless he's already got you know nine million subscribers to starlink and he's beaming the internet down from uh from the sky um does that unblock the bottleneck if we can get these things there uh because his whole thing is he's going to use the sun which is you know um he used many different analogies to explain how powerful the sun is uh basically is this like you know impossible for us to satiate the uh the demand of the sun or the supply of the sun so um could that solve the problem you don't look like a believer in data centers in space no no no there's a difference between what can work and when it'll work okay and i think we've learned
Starting point is 00:18:05 with lon must that he's seldom wrong on what can work i mean remember he said we'll have a hyper loop well we don't have a hyper loop we're never gonna have a hyper loop and there's always some kind of constraints that comes from the current infrastructure, the government friction, whatever that doesn't make it viable. And then some other cheaper reasons starts to come in. So he's, I would never bet against him. He did talk about this and he said, when someone said, you can't do this, it's not possible. He's like, I think the guy sending rockets to Mars and with the most satellites has probably the best voice on what can be done on this. By the way, if you didn't hear it, I thought one of the great things was they brought up, you know, all these conspiracy
Starting point is 00:18:43 theories about aliens and you i don't think you've asked me on here about whether i believe in that but he said if there were flying spaceships i'd know i've got 9 000 satellites out there looking at everything so he he makes a lot of comments on this three-hour thing that if you really drill down and you pause you're like well i guess you're right he does know so i don't i don't think this is going to be a solving problem but his points are valid and i want to make sure people realize this is not a call that we're going to run out of power but i do think for the market at some point this year you will see a very very violent fall in semiconductor stocks because the buildout some at some point there's going to be an acknowledgement that this project won't get built
Starting point is 00:19:21 because we don't have enough of the stuff of power to connect to it it's going to happen and when those things start getting pushed out people will freak out a lot it won't stop the model advancements because the model advancements now are truly being driven by what people were worried about last year, which is a lot of efficiency. We will need the data centers to be built. The question is, in three years, will we have a different solution that's more viable than the ones we have today? Today's episode is brought to you by Fountain Life. Are you ready to seize the day that will change your life? Guaranteed. You invest in wealth creation every single day, but what's the point of it without an optimal health span? Award-winning Fountain
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Starting point is 00:20:35 He talks about putting the solar panels in the desert and he's like, you know, he'll give shade to the lizards. But, but I do think that it is, it is very weird to take Claude code, which now they're reporting the engineers at Anthropic are using Claude code to write code. They're not even writing, you know, human written code, all the way tied to literally power. And if we want to connect this to the geopolitics, germany made some uh climate change driven decisions a couple years ago and they really
Starting point is 00:21:14 kind of made themselves dependent on russia which you could argue gave russia some confidence to kind of put puff their chest out and start making some moves obviously the conflict with ukraine all these different but like it ultimately comes energy is a big piece yeah the united states if you go and you look at the people who are critical of the military action of grabbing maduro oil and energy right so you start to look at this and you say actually the kind of recalibrating of i'll call it the global world order and the ai story the connectivity is energy and oil now what we don't see at least on a large scale or the countries that have the most oil the most energy etc
Starting point is 00:22:00 they're not really leading it's the united states and china those seem to be the two countries that are pushing the pace here do we see a change on the geopolitical landscape where the alliances have to be formed based on ai like do we see people having to choose like i want to be in the american western hemisphere driven you know ai world and what that means for privacy what that means for security what that means for energy all of that is kind of you know one uh playbook and then the china model is something that may be different or opposite and then countries that are in the middle start to making decisions yeah so i posted one thing this week outside of kind of my my papers and sub stacks and it was a post on venezuela because i had read a lot of things that
Starting point is 00:22:46 people posted very focused on oil and i think people have to understand that there's the power side, but we're not seeing natural gas and oil spike higher. Like it's not happening. And the reason it's not happening is because the bottleneck is actually not with energy. We have plenty of energy in the United States of America. We have natural gas everywhere. And arguably other countries of the world could tap their natural gas as well. So we don't have a shortage of the commodity. We have a shortage of the infrastructure to get the commodity into the data centers for the AI. So that's why you see DRAM prices going through the roof. You see copper going through, silver going through. They're all necessary. And again, so people understand copper could double
Starting point is 00:23:32 from here. It doesn't change the cost of a data center. It is such a small component, which is why you want to be long copper. You want to be long silver. You don't want to be fading these things. This is not some speculative thing. This is hoarding because they're necessary for electrification. But to get back to the Venezuela thing, remember what stopped the trade war last year. It was rare earth. China went up, we have rare earth. Okay, Venezuela has reserves of rare earth. Venezuela has some components that are necessary, but Venezuela is also an area in the Americas. So it is strategically an important place. What is Greenland? Greenland is a strategically important place, but it also has rare earth. At the end of the day, regardless of what people think,
Starting point is 00:24:14 AI is causing a war problem. We are all worried about what's coming with AI because the military is changing in front of our eyes. So if it were just those two components, Greenland's popped up again, Venezuela, we go into a country and we announce an increase in the budget for defense all within the same time period. So you can have people going, I guess we're going to war. No, I think we're preparing for the new military and making sure that the physical upgrade of phones, computers, automobiles, factories, and of the military is all happening. And that takes certain commodities. It is not a energy, oil, natural gas hoarding thing, because that is a bottleneck. The bottleneck is all the components that are necessary. You don't need the gas if you actually
Starting point is 00:25:03 can't get the transformers and all the pieces. And that's why we've got bottlenecks that are happening inside the weight of the data center, not actually in the ground at this point. So there's a person who's online. He's got an anonymous or pseudonymous X account. I think very highly of the analysis that they've done on a lot of things uh and recently uh this person and i went and we got lunch and uh unfortunately he has zero interest in going on podcasts being publicly known you know etc as he said to me he goes i'm very well paid and i enjoy my life and i said okay that's fair um but one of the things that he believes is not my idea i wish i could give him credit by name but but it's definitely his idea um is china if you really
Starting point is 00:25:42 break down the world's relationship with China. We will give you commodities and you will be the workplace of the world and you will turn around and give us finished products. If you want to contain China, if you want to contain their ideas, contain their actions, contain their kind of geographical footprint, you can try to fight on the finished product side, or you can starve them of the commodities on the way in. And it seems like from a strategic standpoint, the United States is able to kind of kill two birds with one stone by being able to get control of a lot of these commodities and say, hey, we need them. But also we may be able to maybe not completely starve, but at least limit the usage by what we deem as a, you know, maybe a best
Starting point is 00:26:28 economic rival, let alone geopolitical adversary. And so as I see this play out, it then begs the question okay venezuela you know what i find very interesting we are one week since maduro was uh was captured what percentage of the american population cares anymore it's a lower percentage than what it was last you know sunday morning it's not zero yep but it is a pretty low percentage it's kind of like the world already forgot that this all happened and because things are moving so quickly economically geopolitically etc and with the internet obviously that's only going to accelerator what i find fascinating is that i think the administration understands this and so they're willing to maybe do things that otherwise you wouldn't do because you know um
Starting point is 00:27:11 we toppled saddam hussein and we toppled nicholas maduro one was a 20-year war one was a two and a half hour uh snatch and grab and we were gone right interestingly you're talking about technology we sent 150 airplanes and different air assets but we still sent humans yep we didn't send drones we said right like there was a human component and ultimately that was the differentiators our people were better than their people so you you start to look at this like the the macro trends but there's still these kind of anecdotal things where humans are going to be important all that now i bring it to the geopolitics because my question becomes iran cuba mexico greenland those four seem to be on the chessboard right now. And Iran, maybe the Iranian people take care of
Starting point is 00:28:00 that. And the United States doesn't want to go do nation building and they just say, hey, you know, that's kind of a threat off the table. I don't know what the odds are. Maybe I'm at 30% right now. By the end of this year, the United States and Cuba, you know, are looking at Cuba as like the next Puerto Rico or something. I don't know. The cartels, they seem to be, you know, kind of in the crosshairs now. And it seems like that's going to be the next, you know, kind of attack point. And so as you look at the geopolitics, you start to say to yourself, wait a minute, is the United States and the cartel is really about nearshoring to your point? Is Venezuela, you know, how do you kind of think through the geopolitics and how that plays into,
Starting point is 00:28:39 you know, again, go back to the stock market, like what's going to go up? Yeah. So again, I, I, there's two parts of this that I think are important. And you can't answer the questions of kind of the to use the risk, the game of risk. We're clearly talking about strategic locations that are important and we want to create a tripolar world, meaning we want to separate being close to anybody. And we want to make sure that Russia, at least from the U.S. military perspective, they're clearly targeting the Russia-China alliance and making sure that wherever they're aligned on something, whether it's Venezuela, where all three of them are aligned, including Iran,
Starting point is 00:29:19 whether it was Iran. But when you go through this, China hasn't really responded. They didn't respond to Maduro in any kind of big way. And they didn't respond to Iran, which was last year. So there's clearly some kind of an agreement of like, here's what we're doing. We're not going to get ourselves involved with Taiwan. Because think about it, you've got Taiwan close to China, the US can't go over there and do anything. So we're trying to onshore chips over here. in the case of europe you've got the russia you know european situation right there and now we're targeting all these places i really do want to emphasize to people that ai changes the nature of speed and this is the part that i think is really hard 50 years ago having a base in cuba
Starting point is 00:30:03 or having anything for russia to come over yes there's a missile component that's what freaked people out but from a ship component or anything like that it's like okay it doesn't matter now you're in hyper time like everything moves so much faster than it used to and we're using lasers and the next thing so i think the oceans and the distance and who you're trading partners it's one of the reasons why i've said repeatedly i love brazil as an investment now we'll get through the election this year but brazil has all the resources it is clearly in a great negotiating point between the u.s and china it's a gigantic country with tons of vast thing you've got the u.s already working with malay we left him out of the discussion but there's a reason why the u.s
Starting point is 00:30:44 wants malay working with them too so i think the strategy from the trump administration and whether this is coming from the pentagon whether this is coming from other people inside the administration there's clearly a desire to reshift the tables and i think a lot of it is preparation for the future but we wherever there's rare earth and i can't say this loud enough and there's mining capabilities they don't want that going to china they don't want that being something. And even though Venezuela is not a big producer of rare earth, they do have deposits and they're close to Brazil. And I think the US probably learned their lesson with Africa, where China has a very big stranglehold that we have to protect some of the minerals that
Starting point is 00:31:21 are necessary for the AI technology of the future. We could spend all day monitoring the situation and kind of tracking all of this. But I also want to talk about Trump's announcement on the housing market. He, um, he says that he's going to ban institutional investors from buying single family homes. My understanding is that they own like 1% of single family homes, but he coupled it and that got all the attention. What I didn't see a lot of attention is he also said that Fannie and Freddie are going to buy $200 billion of, uh, mortgage-backed securities. So talk a little bit as to, it seems like Trump's going right after the housing market and he wants to get home prices down? He does. And I think the driving factor, which is going to be a theme this year,
Starting point is 00:32:04 is that right now, prediction markets have the Democrats taking the house at 80%. So housing affordability is an issue. And we've talked about it since he made the statement of declaring a national emergency on housing. So clearly what they do in the administration, they know they have to do something on this. They want to do it at a time clearly when people have money coming in. So the one big, beautiful bill, there's going to be a lot of surprises that come out. And I think it's important for people to recognize that when we were just talking about the GDP numbers, the two quarters before of 4%, and then currently GDP now at close to six, that's before we get the stimulus of the tax side in Q1. So let's assume we end up at 4% for Q3,
Starting point is 00:32:49 and we get a 4% in Q1 because of all the stimulus stuff coming through without getting inflation. You'd be talking about year over year at 4%. You got to go a long way outside of COVID and the bounce back, a non-recessionary post period. So I do think that the housing market is part of his promise to the American people of the distribution of wealth issue and trying to find affordability for housing. I think it is a mistake to fade the fact that it's going to have an impact. And if you want to take one side, it's very, very difficult to believe that housing prices
Starting point is 00:33:20 are not going to be impacted. meaning i would be surprised if you don't see house prices continue to be a zero inflationary component if not a negative one which is what we've been seeing meaning they've been declining in terms of owners equivalent rent so i just take it as he's continuing with his campaign promise of trying to find a way to help middle america people that are suffering out there but the reality is it's not going to change the housing market it's not going to be some big fix but i think it's just additive to attempt to get the stimulus going in the way that we have using the tools that he has available to him does he lose support by doing this if you look at you know i'm gonna make a
Starting point is 00:33:55 huge generalization but like people generally are like oh the boomers own all the houses the young people don't own any houses he's got a pretty big base there of you know older folks who you know support him his policies etc but he's essentially saying like imagine if it was a stock he's like i'm gonna make your stock go down right people don't like that so if he's like i'm gonna make home prices go down. Those people probably don't want that to happen. So he's got kind of a weird situation where he's trying to help young people or people who don't own homes by getting home affordability. That sounds good. That's a positive. But he's also telling people, hey, I'm going to make your largest asset in many cases lose value. How do you balance those? So let's go this route.
Starting point is 00:34:37 First of all, mortgage spreads have come in and mortgage rates have come down. If tenure rates stay around where they are. And let's assume they stay just above 4% for the entire year. And we see short rates go down. I'm going to bet based on the Fannie Freddie thing of we want you out there buying bonds that his target is to move mortgage, you know, a 30-year mortgage below 6%. If you knock house prices down 3%, if he does some other things to allow the home builders to kind of reduce costs, whatever the case, you're reducing the monthly costs through a mortgage price enough to get some increase in housing. And that's why I said, this is not going to solve the problem. And I don't think people are going to worry because the beauty of a house, you own it,
Starting point is 00:35:22 you actually don't know what the price is until you try to sell it. So you might see national numbers come across and say, house prices are down 4%. Nobody knows what that means because they don't know what the current value of their house is. So I don't think they're going to freak out on it. And those people may be less likely to actually be selling their home, right? To like leave their home. They're kind of been there for a long time. They're going to stay there. The housing problem in the near term to me is not going to be an issue. But I do believe if I had to guess that even with the stock market going higher, I don't think you're going to see house price appreciation outside of maybe, you know, places that wealthy people try to get something
Starting point is 00:36:03 that doesn't go down in value. But I do think for the majority of people in the country for their house, I do think you're going to see house prices come down. Eventually when you get to humanoids, and this is again, five years down the road, this is not this year's business. Humanoids will start being rolled out this year. They won't be impacting housing costs until we get into 2030. But I've said to everyone, I'm like, when you get to the point, you have to think the value of a home. I mean, I sold a home in New Jersey a few years ago and I was shocked at the value of the home because I was involved with the building of it versus what people wanted.
Starting point is 00:36:41 They didn't want a 10-year-old house. They wanted a new house. And it didn't matter if the quality of it wasn't as good as the older one. They wanted something new. And that seemed to be a young, they told me that young people just would rather buy something new.
Starting point is 00:36:54 They care a lot about that side of it. Oh, okay. Well, the cost of it will go down with humanoids because labor is a big component of it. That's going to start hitting housing prices when we get into 2030. The cost of building a home from the humanoid side, labor side is going to go down and i think a lot of other ai components so the physical world when
Starting point is 00:37:11 we get to 2030 we'll make the housing problem there so i think we're in a permanent decline in house prices i don't think you're ever going to see them go up again and this fits in my fiat world of you start losing assets one by one you lost private equity private credits now a problem stocks outside of the us haven't performed well over the course last 20 years and this is where it all feeds into bitcoin it feeds into gold i think you have to start up preparing for a world where the fiat assets, and in particular, the growth mag seven, start to be an issue, and you're looking for growth in something that can be up 100% in a year, 50% in a year, I don't think you're going to be able to find that the way you did the
Starting point is 00:37:44 last few years. When people hear you say this, I already know. So you're like, that sounds insane, right? But I do think you can always look at the fringes, especially in the startup world, for a peek into the future. And the individual companies may not be the ones who eventually do it, but it's like the direction of progress is happening. how many times have you seen online some version of a 3d printed home or like a cement laid you
Starting point is 00:38:07 know kind of exterior and the promise is always they can you know build it in 72 hours 96 hours and uh it's you know a third of the cost or you know a tenth of the cost or whatever okay maybe you don't want a cement or a 3d printed home but you essentially are automating the labor via that machine and so maybe you still want the same exact home but it's coming right so i don't think that it's as crazy maybe as people originally think um what i do think is pretty interesting though is as we think about humanoid robots there's a story that came out about hyundai and they now have humanoids actively in production in their facilities now they are the boston dynamics atlas humanoid and so uh you know we're very terminally online over here so we were on
Starting point is 00:38:50 videos um my takeaway immediately and now my entire explanation for what's happening in the world is there are nerds in labs building super athletes to compete with humans and we spent a lot of time talking about the ai component and people are basically trying to build you know synthetic superhuman intelligence to go and compete with knowledge workers so the white collar space is now competing with software software is smarter it's faster it's cheaper the humanoid space i saw this atlas robot six to 200 pounds of american-made machine can do things i can't do can be standing facing one direction it can turn its torso 180 degrees and start walking the other way it's like a mini pump i can't do that trust me that ain't a mini
Starting point is 00:39:36 pump because i can't do that it has human detection so it can kind of see around and make sure it doesn't run into anything right it can uh i forget what they call it but like use its joints it can basically rotate its arms you know 360 degree right all these things where you're just like oh wait a second this isn't just to replace you they're actually building a better tool to do this work and so you start to look at this you're like by the way a human standing there can go and get the box faster and move it right but you just direction of progress here we go what i don't yet understand is the transition period and this to me i think is there's an economic argument but then there is like a just the realities of a workplace the economic argument
Starting point is 00:40:17 is the human oil robots are going to come in they're going to drop costs can make companies more productive. More productive means more profitable, means more valuable. Stocks go up. Okay, great. In this transition period though, we are going to have a period where there are humans and robots working in the same factories. Whenever I see the Amazon examples of all the robots on the floor and stuff, I don't see any humans. But humanoids are built to do the jobs of humans. And so what are the ramifications? There's going to be a video of somebody pushing one of these over that leaks at some point from some factory that, Hey, you're taking our jobs, whatever. It does feel like that transition period may actually be the point where, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:59 our country likes to protest. Our country likes to go on strike. Our country likes to, you know, do these things. I don't hear anyone talk about transition. It's always like what's happening now and what's going to happen in 10 years. What are your thoughts about, you know, that in-between period. So there's an important thing here and I want to make sure people connect this to why this is no longer a guess. So there's an element of a 3D printer building a house, which was always stupid. It's capable of building the frame of a house, but it's still a Roomba. And what I mean is it doesn't have intelligence. So the thing that I just, you know, I spend a lot of time on longevity and anti-aging and I'll say to people, there's really not much difference between
Starting point is 00:41:47 a human and a plant in the fact that our evolutionary makeup is that we're built to survive. We want to survive, but we have this thing in our head that allows us to seek success and pleasure and money and all these things. If you put a plant facing the flower, facing inside your apartment, it will, by the time you come back at the end of the day, it'll be facing out at the sun because it wants to survive. A 3D printer or a Roomba does not have intelligence. They don't have the ability to correct and think. You already can't push over a humanoid. I mean, we've all seen the videos, like you push it over, it goes back and it comes right back. It couldn't do that without the intelligence. So the problem is when people doubt this stuff,
Starting point is 00:42:29 This is why AI is so important. And on that Atlas thing, if you watch the 60 Minutes video, which I highly recommend people do, they talk about the fact that the difference is the intelligence, artificial intelligence and the physical upgrade, the ability to do things. my iPhone, which I hate to keep talking about it in everything I do. I went to Baltimore yesterday. I never had to charge it. I was on the LLM the entire time down writing papers, building stuff, thinking, conversing with it, never ran out of power. And the thing was light speed on the Amtrak. I just don't think people realize that the world that we're in, the fact that every six months intelligence is compounding faster, that you and I can build models that we couldn't build nine months ago. If you're not using it, you can't understand the humanoid thing. That's why you have to use it because the humanoids are coming.
Starting point is 00:43:23 Humans will never be left out of the equation. They just won't because there is an element of where I use the LLM to brainstorm with, but I'm still making the final decision. And that's the way businesses are going to be run. That's why I will say it now, everyone running a business who wants to talk to me, who has run businesses in my career since I was 29, I care about revenue per employee as a number one thing. Now, that doesn't mean fire all the people. But what that does mean is you're trying to find people that are able to keep your revenue stream going at a reduced cost of the amount of people or the total compensation. The reason I bring this up is the number one arbitrage right now is to scour through these graduates that are not being hired. You need
Starting point is 00:44:05 to hire the right ones and they need curiosity. It's not about the best grades because curious people know how to use AI, know how to brainstorm with it. And if your children watching this are curious people, force them to use it all day long. Do it at the table. It is so powerful and it is going to allow the robots to have brains to do the things that we do, but they're not going to be as creative as us for at least the next decade, but they will be as physical as us for sure. What are you worried about right now? You're like, uh, you're like me, you're very optimistic, but what, what, uh, what keeps you up at night? What are you worried about? Where do you see risk? Um, so I, I, I'm hopefully I speak for everyone on this. I have four kids. I worry, um, mainly
Starting point is 00:44:49 about my children. Um, I I've been through enough to know that bad things are going to happen. Uh, you know, my best friend, the best man, my wedding died in nine 11. I was searching for him down around the twin towers. And I remember seeing everyone coming out with stuff all over him. I stayed in the city with someone who, a twin who lost his twin brother inside there. We were going to every hospital. I've been through enough stuff in my lifetime to where I don't care if people think I'm stupid. I don't care if people don't like what I say. Nothing, none of that bothers me. I'm a happy person. I'm optimistic. But for my kids, they're entering a world where if your kids graduate school and all they want to do is help people, which three of my daughters do,
Starting point is 00:45:30 and they're making not enough money to be able to live in a city, I worry about how that's going to change. And by living in a city, are they safe? Because the cities aren't as safe. So that's what I worry about. That's the societal thing that has me focused on Bitcoin, because I believe capitalism is ending. And people don't want to hear that, but I believe it's ending because artificial intelligence and Mark Andreessen talks about this as a VC person. He's like, this is the most unbelievable technology investment like scene I've seen, but the competition is intense and the ability of getting a moat around your business is impossible. That is what is happening. And so I'm worried about how governments react to it, how parents
Starting point is 00:46:10 react to it. I mean, how the schools react to it. I think there's a huge, huge problem that these institutions are doing the wrong thing when it comes to artificial intelligence. It's moving fast, you can't stop it. I think society is having a hard time adapt to it. Hi, I'm Matt Hogan, CIO of crypto asset manager Bitwise. Look, crypto can be confusing. There's so much noise and the space changes so quickly. That's why every week I write a five minute memo on the biggest stories impacting crypto in plain English. Why is Bitcoin up or down? What are people missing? Where should investors look next. Get the lowdown every week. Sign up to get the weekly CIO memo delivered straight to your inbox. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com slash CIO memo. That's bitwiseinvestments.com
Starting point is 00:47:01 slash CIO memo. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing. Today's episode is brought to you by Uphold. Are you someone who's tired of juggling multiple apps just to trade, earn, stake, or spend your crypto? Then listen up, because Uphold does all of that in one single unified platform you can access 300 plus crypto and fiat currencies with an interface that works for you whether you're a beginner or an expert uphold also features any to any swaps where you can swap crypto to fiat fiat to metals and tokens to tokens directly in the app if you prefer self-custody uphold's vault gives you multi-stick security key recovery direct trading access and peace of mind without giving up convenience uphold is also 100 reserved meaning
Starting point is 00:47:45 no fractional practices, and proof of reserves are updated every 30 seconds so you can verify your assets anytime. For U.S. users, you can even earn yield on dollars with a USD interest account. No fees, no minimums, and funds are insured up to $2.5 million through the Atomic Cash Suite program. If you want one app for your entire digital asset life, check out Uphold today. Go to Uphold.com to learn more. Uphold.com. Go check them out today. One thing I want to do before we leave is I'll give you a second to think about this because I didn't tell you this in advance, but maybe we can tell people one product or service that we discovered over the last week or so that we think is cool that kind of shows
Starting point is 00:48:26 the power of this stuff. For me, a friend of mine, he tweeted randomly, hey, here's a GitHub link that you guys can go check out and run locally to cancel subscriptions. And then it's got a little bit of attention. And so he said, well, I'm going to turn it into a webpage. And 36 hours later, he had a webpage up. And so it's justcancel.io, I think is the URL. When you go to the landing page, it says just effing cancel.
Starting point is 00:48:57 And if I remember correctly, the way that the product works is you take three bank statements or like CSVs from your bank, you upload it. And then it immediately tells you how much money you're spending on an annual basis on subscriptions. And then you can go and you can cancel these things. again feature not like a huge company necessarily built in let's give let's give uh him the worst case scenario a week yeah and uh the business model you pay one time five dollars right it's no subscription there's no nonsense just hey you want to do this you pay five dollars one time you go and you do it and all i kept thinking to myself was um how many people over the years created a blog or this or that thing or whatever.
Starting point is 00:49:41 And it was kind of like their thing on the side. This guy in a week created something that it's never going to most likely be a $50 million a year business. But he could probably replace his own annual salary if he worked at a company with this little tool that he is able to just kind of maintain. And it sits there and it provides value
Starting point is 00:49:59 to a certain subset of people. And he takes his $5, you know, one at a time. And I said to myself, oh my God, like that is where we're going to be in the future is like all these little tools that people are building or owning. And it's no different than people used to say, hey, I buy some real estate or whatever.
Starting point is 00:50:14 It's just now in this digital world, given the tool set, you can create these things and their value. Like it is worth more. And then, you know, it is promises. If you don't save at least $5, I'll pay you your $5 back. Pretty good pitch, right?
Starting point is 00:50:27 So here's, I was going to answer the question with the only thing I can say with certainty that like, I have not uploaded a new app on my phone, which is always a good indication that I found something in a while. Um, I've Sylvia apps not out yet. Here's the main thing I'll say. Um, I'm using notion more and more every single day. And the reason I'm using notion more and more every day is because I've recognized that the way that I consume information from the LLMs is speeding up so drastically. Like if I want to find a topic
Starting point is 00:51:04 because I hear something interesting, hear it, see it, whatever. My process is now I go into Grok and I go through all the X posts and find me the most recent posts on this, whatever I just heard. It brings up the X post, I look at them and then I immediately click on it
Starting point is 00:51:19 and I bring it to Notion and I never forget it. Now, I used to do this- And when you're clicking, you're clicking to go to the tweet or clicking to add it to Notion? I'm clicking on the post and I'm clicking on share with, you know, share with, and it goes to Notion.
Starting point is 00:51:30 And I take it there. Now, this is how I collect information for the weekly videos. I'm trying to find nuggets of information. The reason I bring that up is it hit me this week when I was talking to a few leaders of companies. So I'm starting to get more consulting business and doing more presentations on how you can use AI. and I'm showing them how I go from a podcast to 20 ideas in an investment thing. And that process can be as little as two hours or three hours. But to go through there, and then there's probably 300 pages of research that's been generated behind it to come up with the names, and they've all gone through a filtering process. That is the investment process that happens at a hedge fund. Now, I've created prompts and tools to do them. What I realized this week, there were two things. So the things that are happening that I'm using more than ever before that I think everyone should be using, I'm developing, I don't know, 50 prompts a day now. And when I say developing, these are prompts that are three to eight pages long.
Starting point is 00:52:33 I've gotten to be an expert at, oh, my God, you know what I want to do is I want to do X, Y, Z. I want to do this. Okay, create a prompt for that. How are you doing? How are you creating? when people hear an eight page prompt, they're like, oh my God, this guy's like a maniac, right? Walk through the process of like, what's one that you created? How'd you get the idea and how'd you do it? So in, in X, if you, and again, I, I highly recommend if you want to create your
Starting point is 00:52:57 first prompt, go to X, sorry, go to Grok and just type in there, find me a post in X with a template for an efficient prompt, it'll come back with something. And you have that, you copy that just right from the expose. You bring it into Grok or whatever your favorite LLM and say, here's what I want to do. I'm really going to do a deep research dive on this company. Take this prompt template and convert it using this as the template into doing what I want to do,
Starting point is 00:53:31 which you mentioned at the top. It doesn't have to be investment. It could be anything you want. It could be your health, anything. It creates the prompt. And I say three to eight pages because most templates of prompt engineering are like that. Right off the bat, you've done something that is a thousand times better than just typing in. I want to do a research report on that because it's saying you're an expert in this field.
Starting point is 00:53:50 You're going to do deep research. It's going to be this many pages. It's going to go through. It may ask you a question and it may say, I want to know specifically what you want to do. And then go run that prompt in all four different LLMs, see the results you get. And if you want, take those four, upload them into Gemini and say, take these four and give me the best answer that combines the things that they overlap and use all four of these to create one report. That is the way that I do things. I'm taking four.
Starting point is 00:54:19 I view them as four individual people. The LLMs, they all have different skills. They all have different training models. They give me different answers. And then I go through. So for everyone watching prompts to me are building something. Now, there's one more thing I want to say as someone and you have to have been in this position many times when you run a business, you always come up with things of like, OK, should we build it or should we buy it? So over time, because of software, we we bought it because you're like, oh, God, but you always had this thing.
Starting point is 00:54:49 I remember at the hedge fund I was at, it was an old hedge fund, and I remember there was one person there that literally was there because the person coded in a language that nobody else knew how to code in anymore. great job security. It was like, how do we get rid of the, we can't get rid of them. They have job security. And I'm like, all right, that doesn't exist anymore because now you can build things like that. So buying is becoming less of a need. And that's why when you say which app I think build all the time. And that's where the prompts come in. You have to get better at prompts because you start building things. Once you start building things more, your curiosity is fun because it's like, don't be this. And I think everyone needs to get into that. It's just Buy a Lego box with no instructions or buy a Lego box for your kid with instructions.
Starting point is 00:55:33 You train them to do instructions. You're killing their curiosity. They go to schools. They have to pick a major. You're killing their curiosity. You use Google search. You're killing your curiosity. Curiosity is something that people have to get back in their lives.
Starting point is 00:55:46 You know what? Another real world example that I've seen that reminds me of this. We employ a lot of young people. We work with a lot of young people in other companies, etc. and um you always can tell especially when you work with somebody for a while kind of what their um their range is right there's certain topics they're really good at there's other topics they don't know a lot about um and maybe you find something really special that knows a lot about a lot of different things but usually there's kind of some range yep and um in the past maybe
Starting point is 00:56:16 there's some sort of situation you know let's say you're hiring somebody and uh it's pretty clear this person may even tell you hey i'm you know i don't really understand a lot of legal stuff like I'm going to get it. And they'll come back with questions and it's like, Oh, my lawyer told me to ask this question. Or, you know, my uncle is, you know, an expert at this thing. And so you're like, okay, this person has smart people around them. I have noticed in the last two months or so multiple young people asking very pointed questions about topics. They don't even know how to spell. And what I've come to the conclusion of is they're putting it into, you know the llms they're getting very very good insights yep and they're turning around using it
Starting point is 00:56:56 and i think there's a lot of people who would say like oh my god that's like cheat i love it yeah i'm like how resourceful of them to go and do this because what it does is one it's going to make an entire organization better but two is sometimes they're not even people who work at our companies they're people we're interfacing with or whatever and i love when we get back uh you know these super complicated questions or suggestions on legal documents and i'm like you're a one-person company. There's no way you went and hired a lawyer to review this, whatever the power of giving this intelligence to everyone to now use this in every single aspect of their life. I don't think we can measure from like an economic growth standpoint, but what you described is less
Starting point is 00:57:35 about like, you've got some unique skillset of prompt building and it's more of almost like understanding how to use the tools and embrace the curiosity. And then you can just think like, okay, how do you replicate that? Okay. That's for prompt building. Well, what about, you know, every single thing that people use this for. And it does feel like there is a skill here that is not really taught in a school. But once you understand it, you've got superpowers now.
Starting point is 00:58:00 You do. Let me, I know we're running late on time, but I think you'll appreciate- Got all the time in the world for you. I think you'll appreciate this story. So one of the things that I think people eventually asked me is, so I started at Morgan Stanley in 1992
Starting point is 00:58:14 out of Manhattan, Colorado. How is that possible? You were born in 95. Yeah, I know, I know, I know. It's just it's the appearance. Again, I told you lots of injections. So I started Morgan Stanley in 1992 as an undergrad coming out of a school that is not on the radar of anyone in the country, a little tiny liberal arts school. Okay. Morgan Stanley was filled with not only Ivy league kids, but MBAs. This was the decade of you go back to school and you come in. So somehow or another, I was able to start at the bottom end of the firm. And then in 1997, five years after I started, I was asked in 96. So four years later
Starting point is 00:58:54 to go to Brazil and open an office for the firm. So how does someone that young dog. Okay. But here's the thing. The reason that that happened is because number one, like half of the trading floor left to go to another firm. So there weren't a lot of people left. So this is the luck portion of your life. So it's like, all right. And I was trading Mexico. The guy who was trying to open the office in Brazil, you know, Harvard grad had spoke Portuguese and Spanish, still one of the mentors of my career. He was, he got offered a bigger job in the U S now when he was building out in the office in brazil he speaks the language he wanted there to be a safe with a gun he's like so he turns to me one day he's like got a great opportunity and i'm looking i'm like what great
Starting point is 00:59:38 opportunity is this he goes i want you to go to brazil i'm like what do you mean you're going to brazil he goes no no i got i got a bigger job here but i need someone to go down there and i was like now i had nothing to lose yeah i started my first year making thirty thousand dollars they don't pay you more than doubling you at any firm so even though i was moving up the ladder fast i wasn't moving up the ladder fast and pay. And the reason this story is important, I became a partner very quickly. Now, when you join Morgan Stanley out of an Ivy League school, you enter a class, you're an associate, and then there's a set framework of how quickly you can move up. Because I started with no silo, I was able to office a firm and become unfettered. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:00:17 I was able to have it. So I got lucky in the fact that by not paying attention in school, being an underachiever my whole life, but still having a good brain. And then finally using it, you know, when I got to Morgan Stanley and enjoying the mathematics and the calculus and everything about it, I was able to move up the ladder. The reason that's important is because I excelled on curiosity. I excelled on fearlessness. And I think what you're seeing in kids, and I say this, why it's very hard to get a talented domain expert person to use artificial intelligence every single day. It's really hard. You have to use it all the time to bring that curiosity out. I have people say, well, I'm doing prompts. I'm like, are you using it at home?
Starting point is 01:00:57 Like if your kids are still young, you have to pay attention to them. You love them. You spend time with them. It's very hard to spend as much time as I do on it. When my kids are all off to school, I live by myself. I do this stuff. I don't work at a job. And that's the reason why I don't work at a job. So I think the more time you have to be creative and to develop and reframe that curiosity, it's an age of a mindset of an entrepreneur. Are you prepared to learn something new today? Because you can learn anything you want to your point in three hours. You may not be an expert, but you can then learn it broader and broader and broader. Everyone else is very narrow in their knowledge. A heart doctor knows about the heart, but may not know anything about
Starting point is 01:01:40 the liver. I can learn about the liver, the heart, the kidney and everything and why they're connected and ask bigger questions because I'm not going to be a heart specialist. That is the problem is we've specialized everyone. We've reduced the need of being a general or a polymath. AI is a true polymath. You can learn anything you want. Find those young people who are curious, who are fearless and have very little to lose. And you're going to end up with some diamonds in the rough. They're going to be in great shape. I also greatly benefited from not paying attention in school. I think it's, you know, as a, as someone with kids, I don't want them to hear this, but there is great value in having a filter. It's like what matters and what doesn't matter.
Starting point is 01:02:16 Right. And I remember sitting in some classes being like, dude, what, come on, man, we're reading, you know, some stupid book or whatever. I'm just like, I literally don't care. And I now think back, you know, there's probably some teachers who they're like, wait, what? You know, it's kind of like, you ever hear the stories of like somebody who was like, they knew I was either gonna be you know rich or in jail right like there's like those kids always have like high volatility to them right every high school has one right whatever maybe a couple um yeah i always wonder what those teachers think when like it goes the right way right because for sure when it goes the wrong way they're like i knew it right that guy was always gonna get in trouble one thing to
Starting point is 01:02:51 correct you on you're never gonna have to worry about your kids listening to you speak on these things as someone who already knows when they get to a certain age they don't listen they don't listen to anything you say. And if someone says, your father's brilliant, go, no, he's not. He's an idiot. I know him. I've spoken to him. He makes so many stupid decisions. Let me tell you this one. So they already know. People that are sitting in the room right now are going to laugh. But the other day, my daughter was in the office and she drew something. And so I said to her, I said, hey, you should go try to sell it to someone in the office. And I handed that person $5 in a single dollar bill. And my daughter didn't know. She goes over, hey, do you want to buy this?
Starting point is 01:03:28 right? And give her the $5. And she comes running over to me. She goes, dad, I got $5. I said, great. Let me see. And then she counts one, two, three, four, five. I said, great. And I took one of them. And I said, now you have four. Cause I took your tax away. And she burst out in tears, burst out in tears. And I couldn't help, but say to her, I feel the same way. Kids got to learn, right? All right. Can you, before we let everyone go, can you talk about the consulting work you're doing? And if people are interested in that, where they can reach out to you? Yeah. So this relationship that I have with 22V has worked out well on a variety of levels. I've mainly been doing this for the investment side. So bigger institutions and
Starting point is 01:04:04 what I've been showing them and trying to figure a way to demo this. And I will put videos on a paywall. And I know people have reached out saying when the paywall is going to be up. It takes a while to get a paywall where it's not just flop on the screen. So it will be done soon. I'm hoping in the next two weeks, at least to get it started. But what are you using a chisel? Yeah. Come on. You're using like a tombstone. I got a lot of stuff, man. Two weeks, two weeks. Jesus. You're going on vacation. Maybe I'll bring it in here. Maybe I shouldn't go through that. Here's the end result. I am showing people at least how to go from podcasts to ideas, which is great for the investment community. But this translates into anything you want to learn
Starting point is 01:04:43 where you want an output on an idea of a business, whatever you want. Part of this thing is the prompt engineering is showing how you use all the different models, which models are better. Every one of the models from perplexity to Claude, to Grok, to Gemini, to Chachi PT, to me, they're like different individuals. Now they all have a different expertise that I use. They're not the same. I don't know if you've run into that. I use them all for different things. And so I'll say, you do this, you do this, all four of you do this. And that's part of the orchestration is I've seen this before now talked about. If you go to a Broadway show and you watch the conductor. Every one of the people playing the instruments are your LLMs. You are the conductor
Starting point is 01:05:24 and you have to learn how to conduct that orchestra to make it go fast and to be able to do the things that I'm doing. So I'm showing people more how to do that. So 22V is the place that right now they can find out how to get it and I'll come to the office if they want and we'll do the stuff. So. All right. Well, listen, he's here every single week. I would jump all over that. Are we going to talk about doing a live show? A live show? We are going to do a live show in uh january uh oh yeah it's this yeah in like two weeks we're gonna do a live show but it's at a conference um next week we'll give you guys details because i don't know what the details are off the do you know what the date is i think it's the 23rd the 23rd in miami january 23rd
Starting point is 01:06:03 jordy and i are going to be doing a uh a live recording at the real vision crypto gathering i think it's called um so if uh if you're going to be there then uh come listen obviously you can maybe even ask some questions although i don't know if i want people to ask questions because they've been listening to us for a long time they got a lot of stuff they could you know ask us about but uh it's gonna be fun it'll be good to see people january 23rd uh in miami we'll be there um but thank you for doing this we'll see you guys next week see you next week

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