The Pomp Podcast - Volatility Is Coming! Here Is How To Profit From It | Andrew Parish & Tillman Holloway

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Starting point is 00:01:18 humans are using it or not, the most widely used exchange of value in the new age of 24-7 markets and kind of the tokenization of all assets. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Andrew Parrish and Tillman Holloway of Archpublic. These guys simply get it. They understand what's happening in the macro environment. They see all of the debasement of the dollar. They believe that volatility is going to become much worse in the future. And they've built some software that's actually able to help people capitalize on the volatility. I always enjoy talking to them. They're down to earth dudes who are intelligent and they're actually doing stuff in the market. They're getting feedback from real users and they

Starting point is 00:01:56 understand what happens when you take ideas and it meets reality. Here's my latest conversation with the guys at Archpublic. So I mean, let's start with you. I think there's this huge controversy right now where lots of people are very upset at the US government for undisciplined spending. There's a lot of waste going on. They look around the local communities and they feel like I'm getting taxed more, but I'm getting less services. And there's a general unhappiness. At the same time, there is this absolute need for more investment and more dollars in the system as we try to build out the infrastructure for this brand new era of AI. You've talked about that maybe there's some national security implications to this. Can you just walk us

Starting point is 00:02:33 through kind of your analysis as to like, where have we been? What's changing? And why is it so important to national security? Yeah, I think if you talk about infrastructure as a whole, it's always what drives economic growth, whether it be the federal highway system or the internet. This new set of rails, this new global infrastructure, if you will, that allows everything to be tokenized and allows trading to happen 24-7 and allows for real-time settlement to take place. That's changing the way that markets work at a foundational level. And so what does that mean? Well, it means that there's going to be more markets. I think that recently they talked about even derivatives of stocks themselves don't have to come from the issuer.

Starting point is 00:03:26 So you're talking about essentially an infinite number of markets that can be created and they'll all be judged on the back of the trust of the issuer and or on the proven deposits or the reserves that are back the issuance. What we see in that is we see the expansion of markets and what has to take place beyond that is that liquidity has to come into those markets for them to function. And so the need to print money is going to be even more greater than we've ever seen, the expansion of the markets and what's going to take place in the next 10 years. And the participation that it's going to drive will drive more demand for more dollars. And so that gives the United States government a reason to print money without undermining the foundational

Starting point is 00:04:21 trust that is behind the dollar. And it won't be, you know, being forced down the world's throat through just military might, but it'll be through the interconnectivity of markets and through global expansion and the participation therein. And that's the healthy way to grow into the inflation that essentially that we have as a country is to innovate and to bring that innovation to the world stage and to bring more participants into that innovation so that the dollar is the the backbone of that innovation and then continues to be the dominant place of exchange and we we we already have such a head start and we already have the greatest minds from a technological perspective and if you look at just the i was out in arizona and i went and looked at a data center

Starting point is 00:05:11 that is a semiconductor chip manufacturing facility that's a taiwanese company joint partnership built in the us i don't want to misquote this but i think it's 29 million square feet under roof has its own power a treatment plant has its own electrical grid has its own electrical uh production plant uh the most state-of-the-art facility that i've ever seen in my entire life and you know if you see it with your eyes you go ha that's part of the future it's that evident to you at face value and so you say okay well if we are going to invest in the future we're going to need to build things that up until this point have only been kind of conceived through sci-fi imagination like the death star something of that magnitude you know

Starting point is 00:06:01 elon musk is is talking about those types of things and in order to generate the type of power that's needed to to take the leadership of semiconductor chip manufacturing all of the hardware that's needed to expand AI functionality and capability. You just know how important energy and rare earth metals and the production of these computers are to the US, but really to the entire world and the global markets. Now, when you see that, Andrew, obviously, this is a national security issue. Yes, there's going to be more dollars in the system. I guess the question really just becomes like, what is crypto's role there? Do you guys think of it as stable coins or ending up driving dollar dominance and that's really where a lot of the value gets created

Starting point is 00:06:49 is it no bitcoin is this asset that is going to actually convert dollars into digital gold and people are going to store their value to insulate themselves from dollar debasement like how do you kind of think of the the impact to crypto based on what uh tell me what you're saying well i think the impact of crypto is you know trying to do a really good job of following the leader and the leader is the likes of BlackRock and Morgan Stanley. They can't stop talking about tokenization, tokenization, tokenization, tokenization. That's all they're talking about. And what that means is they see liquidity, they see opportunity, they see increased revenue with 24-7 markets. And that can only happen based on tokenization. I kind of liken it to the broadening and the depth of the

Starting point is 00:07:37 markets that changed. Now, the end result was not ideal, but the change in markets from let's call it 2000 to 2020-ish, where you had meaningful leverage come into the markets associated with debt, meaningful leverage across almost nearly every asset class. Well, that got wiped out in the great financial crisis, but we've gotten to a point now where the entire pie needs to grow again. And whether good or bad, tokenization is going to meaningfully grow that pie. And you're going to now turn on the switch. So instead of markets being open for, let's call it seven hours a day, they're going to be open for 24 hours a day. So the pie has to grow. It has to get thicker, wider, the whole thing for everyone to participate. And they're going to want everyone to participate.

Starting point is 00:08:30 And so liquidity is going to be something that will be very, very meaningful to watch. Well, where does liquidity ultimately come from? It ultimately comes from the printing of money. So obviously crypto is going to be uniquely connected to tokenization because tokenizing of equities and any type of asset is inherently crypto, correct? And now when you guys take a look at this, the big thing around volatility being introduced into the system feels like the inevitable. And you see this today, right? If we go back, we had the tariff scare last year. Then we had the Iran war this year.

Starting point is 00:09:07 Then we had inflation concerns. Then we even had – people forget Maduro got captured earlier this year. That's like an afterthought. We all have amnesia over that. There was the deep-seek moment. There was the software sell-off, the saspocalypse, right? I mean, all of that has happened in less than 18 months. We can name, you know, fear after fear after fear, and the market has been gyrating.

Starting point is 00:09:27 But stocks are at all-time highs. Bitcoin went from $125,000 down to $60,000, back to $80,000. And it's just like all over the place. And so how are you guys thinking about investors and users of your product navigating so much volatility? By the way, inside of everything you just talked about, broader markets hit all-time highs and money market accounts went to all-time highs. So we're at like $8.5 trillion in cash sitting in money market accounts now and markets are at all-time highs. That's completely

Starting point is 00:10:02 unprecedented. So if you think about that, if you've got all these potential meaningful things that could turn markets upside down, one, they didn't turn markets upside down. And two, somehow we're more invested, markets are higher, and there's more cash on the sidelines. That's extraordinary. That reality is extraordinary. I think it's a product of the information age that we live in and how quickly information flows. And, you know, humans are addicted to emotion. We love emotion. And, you know, that's why, you know, WWF or WWE is a thing, even though we all know it's fake, right? It drives emotion. That's why soap operas are a thing.

Starting point is 00:10:46 That's why romantic novels. Emotion is a powerful thing, and humans like emotion. And so as long as emotion can be injected into markets, it will be. And headlines do that. And now the connectivity of those markets allow people to ride that emotion, and that is volatility, right? And that's going to only expand because there's going to be more and more things tokenized. And it's going to have thinner and thinner liquidity during the dry parts of trading. And it's going to have more and more volatility and liquidity during the times where it pumps

Starting point is 00:11:22 because there's going to be larger on-ramps and more access and more people involved. But it's going to have this feeling for the people who can't get in front of it or time it correctly, this feeling of you can't ever win and you're kind of chasing your tail. and if you've been in the crypto space especially in previous cycles during altcoin kind of cycles you you've felt that before where it's like there's a new project and it's going parabolic every day but you're always late to the party and you're always wondering how did people know this happened and you know this the the answer is to have if you believe in a sector like crypto you should have exposure that's broad you shouldn't pick one horse to win you should

Starting point is 00:12:09 bet on the whole race and you should put prudent amounts of allocation towards those projects across all front well i think the global markets are going to end up proving that you know mantra to be even more true and more important than ever and i think management of those opportunities and management of the volatility that presents itself because it's presenting itself across a broad array of markets, you're going to have to have automated tools. You're going to have to have automation sitting in that gap for you because you can't be available 24-7 and you can't do the math as quickly as it's needed to be done to make good, prudent decisions. And so that is where Archpublic has really thrived over the last 18 months in particular. And we've got 25,000 plus

Starting point is 00:12:58 customers using our software to do that, to stand in the gap of them being available and the emotion that it drives into their life to have their will be represented by a piece of automation or a piece of software that they've coded themselves to represent exactly what they want to represent in those markets. And so as you see, and I'll add one more thing as it pertains to kind of how important crypto is in the equation of this expansion of markets and in the inflation of dollars. You know, traditionally, money flows from the printing press through the banks to the people. Well, what are the banks all doing right now? They're investing in this infrastructure. And so when you see, you know, the tokenization of markets and the liquidity that needs to be

Starting point is 00:13:47 placed in that, there's a perfect relationship. We're not breaking precedence as to where the money will come from and where it will go. And if you talk about a digital age where those markets are governed by AI and smart contracts and agents, they can't exchange, you know, compensation and or value in any form other than crypto. So crypto is going to be whether humans are using it or not the most widely used exchange of value in the new age of 24 seven markets and kind of the tokenization of all assets. Now, we've seen in other areas where I see companies reporting that their documentation is being read more by agents than humans. I've seen charts that showed that the amount of content being created now agents are creating more content than humans on the

Starting point is 00:14:38 Internet. Right. Just like you go through sector after sector. Is there a world where not specifically the high frequency trading is already that has surpassed human trading in terms of the volume of trading on the traditional market, but actually agentic trading, where AI agents themselves are trading more than even the high-frequency traders are? I think that that will have to be a very closely watched area of expansion and influence. You know, right now, the markets are governed by different entities. The CME governs itself. SEC governs most of the other markets.

Starting point is 00:15:14 And the disruption of markets is really what they are charged with keeping from happening or maintaining a fair and equitable on and off ramp. So if they see a disruption in the form of AI, yes, they will take, I think, aggressive action to underpin the trust that's needed for those markets to function. But truly, I do think that smart contracts and the age of tokenization, it's going to govern itself to a large extent, and we don't know how many agents will get involved. But at the end of the day, whether it's my agent against your agent or me against you, we're going to both live and die on the same sword, which is like how greedy are we, how emotional are we, where we can spot winners and losers earlier in time. I mean, Warren Buffett's strategy is a good example of one that I don't care how much software you had and how much computing power you had, it really doesn't provide any more of an advantage to what he already has just with a pencil and a piece of paper because it's built on the fundamentals of compounding and human necessity in a way that's not fleeting like the latest and greatest craze. Andrew, what do you think? um so i think there's going to be a race uh here over the next two years to capitalize on on tokenized quote-unquote trading um you know uh not only global banks investment banks and

Starting point is 00:16:51 then exchanges are rushing to make this a reality and why are they rushing to make it a reality because it it allows for additional revenue meaningful additional revenue and those organizations have been looking for additional revenue everywhere they could possibly pinch it or squeeze it from for about 15 years. Their business models were meaningfully disrupted 18, 19 years ago during the great financial crisis. And they've been searching for something other than just wealth management to fill their coffers on a quarterly and annual basis. So I think trading will become a much, much bigger part of just the landscape going forward. I think tokenization will provide that. I think volatility will become something that people will lean into and people will be encouraged to lean into across different platforms.

Starting point is 00:17:46 I think of one transaction. I think of when Morgan Stanley bought E-Trade. Morgan Stanley probably bought E-Trade at the time because they had tens of millions of customers on that platform that had capital and opportunity associated with it. at the time, it was simply increasing the total headcount of customers that are doing business at Morgan Stanley. And how many, even whatever the small percentage was, how many people can we move from E-Trade into Morgan Stanley and make more money off of them because it's an upscale experience? I think with tokenized trading, tokenized assets, that E-Trade property can now be reconstituted as a trading property where more money can be made. They can now bring on new customers, expect an influx of customers associated with a movement that's 24-7 tokenized trading. Again, whether good or bad is not really the question here. It's what's the trend going to

Starting point is 00:18:48 be. So I don't know if you guys were around a little older than both of you. But listen, there was a world back in the mid-90s, mid to late 90s, where there were day trading firms where you left your job and you went and sat in an office where you day traded and it was a day trading shop, right? You weren't at your home doing it. You went to an office and you were a day trader in a day trading shop where they offered you additional capital to do so. I think we're going to see another version of that associated with tokenization, 24-7 trading, and again, capital awash everywhere. It won't look like that. But in terms of revenue to these firms and increased activity across markets, you're going to see Jeff Park put out a neat idea

Starting point is 00:19:44 associated with this, I think last week, not last week, yesterday is when it was. And the idea that tokenization and trading could end up being the next version of sort of universal basic income, that the idea of harvesting volatility associated with tokenized assets. And again, tokenized assets is just an interesting choice of words for equities that are just available all the time to trade. I think it's an interesting concept. And I think we're going to see something like that over the next 12 to 36 months. Today's episode is brought to you by Fountain Life. Your body is incredibly good at hiding disease. Unless you look. true wealth isn't measured in possession it's measured in the time you gain

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Starting point is 00:22:55 not, but there's two things that we're talking about here. There is the access persistently to your assets in terms of 24-7 trading, but also by quote unquote tokenizing, you now are able to do fractional shares, not just for buying and investing, right? We already have fractional shares on many retail platforms. But what if all of a sudden I can actually use it to a fraction of an Apple share could buy me something? And so what you get into is this weird world.

Starting point is 00:23:21 Again, I say it's weird because we don't really do it today, but it feels like it's now technically possible. And the question is, will consumers adopt it? But now you don't have to sell my Apple shares, go to cash and take my cash and convert it for a good or a service. Instead, I can just simply go from Apple stock to good or service. And the technology would let me do that. Do you guys have an opinion as to whether that is something that will be a consumer behavior, or do you think that actually the consumer behavior will overwhelm the technology and people will stay with this kind of going back into cash before they make purchases?

Starting point is 00:23:55 I think this is a migration from brick-and-mortar banks to online app-based banks. And if I had to guess, they want you to hold the assets and they want you to borrow against them so they can charge you interest. that would rejuvenate the lending side of banking in a way that would be good for the banks and it would be good for the economy it would be good for the assets it'd be good for the consumer you couldn't argue it for many it's it's uh it's defensible from every angle and i think you know if you look at for example like payday loans or overdraft protection at the bank it's geared towards more lending. And Bitcoin and this new economy that we've been talking about in the form of digital assets provides them a piece of collateral that can be repossessed

Starting point is 00:24:47 without a lot of cost, without a lot of burden from a management perspective. And that smart contract repossession of collateral mechanism allows them to grow and expand their lending capabilities at scale that the likes of which they've never even imagined, because most lending has scalable risk attached to it. If I, you know, have too much concentration risk in real estate, for example, in a specific area, and there's some mass, you know, mass exodus of population out of that area, my real estate portfolio may take me under. Whereas if it's more diversified, but there's only a certain, the more diversified you are, the more geographically difficult it is to manage those assets. This is the first time where assets that have infinite

Starting point is 00:25:37 liquidity expansion opportunities attached to them can also be used as collateral inside of a smart contract that allows the banks to lend infinite dollars out without the risk that they would incur in any other asset. So I think this is going to be an expansion of debt. I think it's going to be an expansion of markets. It's going to be a redefinition of what banks are. And yes, I do think, to answer your question, that you'll be in the grocery store paying your grocery bill with a loan that's given to you by the bank that holds all of your assets that is lending against a smart contract because you're demanding liquidity. It doesn't really matter where the loan originates from. It could originate from a basket approach where they're assessing

Starting point is 00:26:26 all of your repossessable smart contract, you know, pledged securities and or collateral pieces. A real world example of that, real quickly, is the difference in scale between, say, J.P. Morgan and Jane Street, right? So J.P. Morgan has 330,000 employees. Jane Street has about 3,500. And the profits on a quarterly basis skew towards Jane Street. In fact, Tom Lee had some commentary about this the other day about blockchain and AI, to Tillman's point, is going to radically change the banking sector in the next three to five years. So you're going to be able to meaningfully reduce actual headcount and deliver more significant services and, of course, increased revenue and profits so uh it's kind of a fascinating reality and when you see the

Starting point is 00:27:24 difference between you know global jp morgan 300 000 plus employees and jane street and what they do and how they do it um and then the difference in in revenue per employee is extraordinary right that um that makes sense how do you guys think about like something like hyper liquid and you know they're starting to trade tokenized versions of private companies which seems like that's now like the new focus and, you know, there's some price discovery or what are you guys seeing there? Expansion of market opportunity is just more money flowing to more places because it's available now and technology has caught up with the demand. The demand's always been there. I mean, if you if you look at, you know, the way in which you make the most amount of money in

Starting point is 00:28:07 the United States, it's buying in early to private companies. That is the way you make the most amount of money. And so why not fractionalize it? Like you said earlier, why not take it to a lower denomination that allows more participation? And, you know, if you look at like traditional institutional funds, like commercial real estate funds, for example, most of the minimum thresholds are like $5 million you have to place or you don't get invited. And you boil that down to why would they do that? Why wouldn't they want money from everyone? Well, because the management hassle of issuing a security to qualified investors, there is a lot of cost and friction there. So if they can cherry pick and find a reputation

Starting point is 00:28:57 whereby which they can demand a high minimum threshold and they can deal with a lot fewer people, it alleviates a lot of that headache. And so fractionalizing it through tokenization alleviates the headache but also lets you offer it to that broad market and so it's again a it's going to be a huge place where liquidity is going to have to be injected i'd also add that over the next 18 to 24 months hyperliquid is going to face an enormous amount of competition enormous amount of competition so you know again the likes of e-trade robin hood um every traditional player in the world is going to offer the same type of tokenized access to this stuff that hyperliquid is today um it'll all get commoditized um there'll be

Starting point is 00:29:46 an enormous influx of revenue initially in the first six to let's call it 18 months and then steadily the costs associated with tokenized trading will come down down and down and down and down? Well, the decision that I see facing Hyperliquid and all these other crypto-centric or tokenization-centric companies is, do we try to play with the big legacy boys and stand on our own two feet? Or is there an M&A move that makes sense for us, that protects us from that competition and gets us critical mass in the market share that we possess to where we become, you know, kind of too big to fail, if you will. And I do think that Hyperliquid possesses that type of a quality where they could either be purchased and or merge with another

Starting point is 00:30:40 large legacy firm to make this a reality across a broader customer base. Now, when you guys see this like access to markets, which I agree with, and I think that that is happening, I think it's generally a net positive. What are the downsides? Like, you know, maybe if you look to outside of like pure investing, you look towards like sports gambling and many of those areas. There's a lot of young people who frankly, they're just like, I want a quote unquote return. And I put that in those air quotes, because I don't know if they really care whether they bought a stock and it goes up 5x, or they hit a triple parlay and feel like they're, you know, getting rich on that. And so on one hand, you are getting access to more markets. On the other hand, you know, I think

Starting point is 00:31:18 that maybe people who are a little bit older, who have a little bit more experience, you've kind of seen how that plays out? Maybe like, ah, maybe some of the gambling stuff isn't what we want, you know, a wide swath of young people to do. My argument would be that education and knowledge is power. And I'd rather see a generation understand money from a risk reward perspective than not. And so you look at the current educational system, you look at the current generation, my generation and the two below me. And there's not a large group of us that understand the time value of money and basic principles that if you go up two generations, were the foundation of their careers and what they thought about every single day.

Starting point is 00:32:07 And so you go, well, all those people, you have a large segment of the future that that doesn't play in the markets and doesn't understand the difference between having their money make money for them and having their hands make money for them. And that is the square one of understanding money, in my opinion. Because once you understand that money has function beyond spending, that it actually can be put to work no different than a force of labor can be put to work, then you start to go, wow, this becomes something that while I'm doing my nine to five, I can have other things working on my behalf. Now, granted, there will be some steep learning curves that will cause a lot of losses. But again, I would venture to say that

Starting point is 00:32:59 that education is worthwhile even with the losses incurred. And one would hope that that would lead somebody into understanding more prudent ways to place money than sports betting, right? But I think the fundamental involvement of putting money to work is something that has been lost. And I think we need to put that back into everyone's hands. And God only knows the innovation that will come of that and the participation and the human capital that then you know yields fruit for us as a whole i think will be will be evident yeah prediction markets are going are going away they'll continue to grow um you know one of the ways that you can see that happening again faster than we all expect is you know there's a couple of prediction market

Starting point is 00:33:51 etfs that are on the cusp of coming out um what in the world those are going to track i don't know I'm going to track something. And to that end, you know, prediction markets are just going to be a version. They're a pre-version of tokenized real world asset trading, 24-7 trading, because prediction markets are 24-7. Crypto is 24-7. So tokenized. Again, these are now banks and the major players saying, wait a minute. there's a lot of capital flight moving around that that that's leaving us that went to crypto that's going to prediction markets we want that back how do we get that back let's take a little bit from this crypto deal let's take a little bit from this prediction market thing that's happening let's create uh tokenized assets on the playing field that we're on turn it on 24 7 and okay

Starting point is 00:34:44 now let's go do that my guess is is you're going to have tokenized versions that are 2x 3x 4x to upside, 2x, 3x, 4x to the downside that you're going to be able to play on traditional equities, whatever they happen to be. That's all going to happen. And it's all going to happen because you're now competing with prediction markets 24-7, crypto 24-7, and whatever else is 24-7. I mean, it makes so much sense, right? There's a war for attention. There's also a war for capital and investors are going to have to choose where to put it. Where is it best treated? Where do they think it's going to appreciate the most and also be insulated the most from all of the challenges that people face. Where can we send people to find out more about Arch and what is

Starting point is 00:35:23 kind of your guys pitch to people if they use your product? First of all, I think the passion lies deep in a need that was with us at the very beginning, which is the markets drive emotion. It drives bad decision making. We want prudent plans that we can execute over long periods of time without the burden of the management of that. The group of customers that we have are sophisticated, high net worth individuals, all the way down to people who are very beginners in crypto. And they want tools that have proven outcomes that are an extension of their will in the markets that they can turn on and set it and forget it and come back and it's done what they have prescribed it to do. And so that's what we specialize in. We specialize in doing that with

Starting point is 00:36:13 with a great group of customer service folks that really know the tools well and will spend as much time getting you familiar with them so that you feel the confidence in using them. But that's what we're passionate about. Archpublic.com is where you can find us. You can download and use the tools for free to get started and to see if it's something that you find attractive. But I can assure you, it's a real eye-opening experience. And if you have ever dealt with automation in the markets before, I can assure you it's something that you have not seen. We do not run across anything familiar or similar to what we've built. So come check us out and we'd love to help you. Yeah, it's extraordinarily exciting. Everybody's going to need to use some sort of

Starting point is 00:37:00 automation, AI, agentic type of tools on a go-forward basis. If you've got 24-7 markets everywhere, you can only stay up 12 to 18 hours a day. You can't do this on your own. So you're going to have to get familiar with tools like this. And everybody's going to be using them. So one, to be on the very bleeding edge of tech, which is where Archpublic is, And then to have a huge amount of folks at our company that are ready to talk to you at any time about not only how do you set this up? What does this mean? Can I change this? What about that?

Starting point is 00:37:38 You can ask them a million questions. They'll be available to you anytime, anywhere to help you as you walk through this process. And then secondarily, performance. Extraordinary. Meaningful delta variances between like buy and hold and then using our tools. And then finally, we build tools that harvest yield to the upside and to the downside. To the upside, you've got cash yield and additional value associated with that asset. You have more and more of that asset as you're accumulating it to the upside.

Starting point is 00:38:08 To the downside, you're now harvesting tax losses. And we have tools that do that for you on an ongoing basis as well. The warehouse of tools that we have is massive and huge. in other words whatever you want to get accomplished in terms of your will in the markets with crypto we have other you know broader things coming to market across different uh different assets come talk to us and we'll be able to say yes we can make that happen i love it guys thank you guys so much for the time today we'll definitely do it again in the future awesome absolutely thanks anthony

The Pomp Podcast - Volatility Is Coming! Here Is How To Profit From It | Andrew Parish & Tillman Holloway

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