The Pomp Podcast - What Happens to Bitcoin When the Fed Finally Cuts? | Darius Dale

Episode Date: December 4, 2025

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we break down the growing divisions inside the Federal Reserve, the real odds of a December rate cut, and who may lead the Fed next. Darius explains how Fed policy is moving asset prices in every direction and why markets are pricing something very different from what the Fed is saying.======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://www.figuremarkets.co/pomp Disclosures: Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.======================⁠DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is pioneering a new category in crypto investing with the first Solana-focused Digital Asset Treasury. DFDV offers public market exposure to Solana’s growth, yield, and onchain innovation, offering investors a leveraged way to participate in a trillion-dollar opportunity. Learn more about why Solana and why DFDV at SolanaTo10K.com.======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro1:28 – Why the Federal Reserve is deeply divided6:18 – Structural changes reshaping the US economy9:40 – Will the market force the Fed to cut rates?13:17 – The K-shaped economy: who’s in recession?19:29 – Markets at risk: positioning signals flashing red22:31 – What the KISS model says about bitcoin

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What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a

specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going on guys today i got a great conversation with darius dale for you in this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the federal reserve are they going to cut rates in december who is going to be the next leader of the federal reserve and how is the fed actually impacting different asset prices what is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up down sideways backwards prices are going everywhere people are completely confused as to how the fed is going to act and the market is pricing in something very very different than what the fed is telling you

darius is here to break it all down he brings unique data unique insights and your work about to get smarter in the next 25 minutes or so. Here's my conversation with Darius Dale. All right, Darius, I thought a great place to start the conversation is the Federal Reserve. There is deep divisions. I think you agree with me. There's all kinds of people coming out. Some want to cut, some don't want to cut, some want to raise rates, some want to pause. And a lot of people are wondering who the hell is going to be the next Fed president or chairman here. What is going on at the Federal Reserve? Hello, thanks for having me again. It's always a pleasure to be with you and your wonderful community, Tom. So I'll start by saying this is as divided as

the Fed, as we've seen in a really long period of time, I think you can go back to the kind of mid-90s, the last time we saw such deep division amongst the Fed. If you look at this first slide here, where we show the kind of this dispersion of opinion amongst the 19 FOMC market participants around the level of the neutral rate. Right now, there's about 11 different votes for what that level is up from like a long run need of about 5%. So it's essentially saying, and the issue here is that as we approach what, you know, the top of the upper boundary of what some of the more hawkish members in the FOMC believe is neutral, that ultimately means that they're going to say, nope, I'm out. I'm out. No more rate cuts. No more liquidity. I'm out. And so that's part of

the issue. And you can sort of see that dispersion again there on slide two, where we showed the September dot plot, which is the most recent dot plot we have, with the neutral rate ranging from, I want to say about 2.625 percent all the way up to a news rate estimate, rather from 2.625 percent all the way up to 3.875. So, I mean, it's just it's a very just a disparate world out there. That dispersion is likely to cause the Fed to slow down in the coming months as it relates to incremental rate cuts. Now, when we see this playing out, a lot of it seems to be politics, at least in like national headlines and conversation. the fed uh pick is definitely gonna be politically driven um even we see steven myron and other people kind of going in and being very aggressive compared to maybe the people that they're

replacing uh is that the only thing that's driving this or is there like what i'll call true economic disagreement outside of any sort of political viewpoint and people are disagreeing on the inputs of data or maybe the impact of potential rate cuts or not yeah well there's both i think in our opinion, we think there's both. It's pretty clear in our opinion that the Federal Reserve is a left-leaning organization based on its current composition of members. We saw that going back to 2020. We saw the Fed kind of adopt a secular framework for its implementation of monetary policy, which was this maximum and inclusive employment mandate. You know, they kind of essentially took the mandate that Congress gave them and altered it in a manner that allowed them

to run monetary policy way too tight, or sorry, way too loose, my apologies, way too loose. For example, if you look at the federal funds rate relative to the baseline tailorable estimate, which is an estimate of what the monetary policy rate should be at any given time based on the output gap and the deviation from the inflation target, the Fed funds back then, and let's say in early 2022, it was about 1,000 basis points below what a baseline tailorable estimate would have indicated at the time. And that is actually worse. That's more easy than Arthur Burns, which we all kind of know and celebrate as the most dovish Fed chair in history. So the Powell Fed took this maximum and inclusive mandate, this new just Fed secular

framework, to essentially implement the most dovish monetary policy in the history of the institution outside of the nine years of yield curve control by Mayor Nicholas Eccles and Thomas McCabe that it did in 1951. And don't forget, they took the balance sheet up to 36% of nominal GDP after it was an average of about 6% of nominal GDP prior to the GFC. So there's a Federal Reserve that has already shown its true colors from the perspective of policy. Now, that's one reason why there's this debate and this dispersion among committee members.

The other reason is more economic. It's really about the Fed's role in society and what the ultimate level of inflation should be in an economy with extreme fiscal largesse, what the Fed funds' charter rate should be. you and I have been talking about for four years now, that the Fed revised its inflation target higher to 3%, not because we think 3% is a better outcome for the consumers on the bottom of the K. It's just that this is the new equilibrium level of inflation in the economy based on

our secular inflation model. And as long as that is the equilibrium level of inflation in the economy, if they're trying to get to 2%, they're ultimately going to run monetary policy too tight for the low to medium income households, the small businesses, and the interest rate sensitive sectors at the bottom of the K. And that's exactly what we've got, by the way. So, you know, there's I think there's it's both political and it's economic as well. So I don't know that we will ever really truly know the answer to that. But ultimately, we think that if you go to escape where the puck is going, it's about resolving some of these disputes and differences. Now, on slides three and four here, you've got the neutral Fed funds rate,

both the market expectation and the money market and kind of where they're pricing this. Talk a little bit as to why is it fluctuating so much? Yeah, well, I think it's fluctuating so much because the economy is going underground so much significant change uh you know again one of the things that our secular inflation model has done very uh accurately is you know quantify the amount of change we've seen in the economy relative to previous business cycles and the the change that we've seen in the economy relative to previous business cycles uh not the least of which is the amount of cash on household and corporate sector balance sheets uh you know and household sector balance sheets is about 10 trillion dollars of of cash in the form of checkable deposits and

currency and money market fund exposure that's up from about 3.5 trillion prior to the pandemic uh corporate balance so that you know almost a triple relative to where we were prior to the pandemic we have a double in the amount of cash on corporate sector balance sheets to about 3 trillion relative to where where we were prior to the pandemic you know these are the types of changes that are that are that are happening in the economy that are essentially making it harder to figure out what the the r star is and r star is the real uh neutral rate uh that that leaves the economy neither accelerating from a growth and an employment standpoint, nor accelerating from an inflation standpoint. And so because of all this change, and again, I just highlighted

a couple of changes, there's many more changes, obviously tariffs and the acceleration of deglobalization is a big change as well. There's so many changes in the economy that have caused the market-based estimates of the neutral rate to fluctuate. Obviously, back in 2020 and 2021, the market-based estimate of the nominal neutral rate was somewhere in the low 0% range. It peaked out at about north of 4% kind of in mid-2022. And obviously, it's bounced around between, let's say, 4% and 3% since. On slide four, we essentially, at the bottom panel on slide four, we just showed that since the middle of this year, the nominal neutral rate, which is obviously the R-star plus the long-run inflation expectation,

that number has been roughly around 3% since the middle of the year. So the market thinks the neutral Fed funds rate is about 3%, Whereas there's many committee members on the FOMC and the broader Fed board, they think that there's a big dispersion of views that's somewhere between, let's call it two and a half to four percent. And that dispersion of views is on a collision course with what the market ultimately needs from the perspective of U.S. monetary policy. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. Looking for the best way to unlock your crypto's liquidity? My friends at Figure are exactly what you need. Being the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the United States

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The market can force the Fed's hand on supplying the rate cuts that it needs to help address the K-shaped economy crisis. And the market can and absolutely will force the Fed's hand if it determines that it needs balance sheet expansion to ease the funding, the developing stress that we continue to observe in the repo market. For instance, if you look at the spread between SOFR and the interest on reserve balances on a trailing three-month basis, that's a plus 12. That number shouldn't be positive at all. If we had an appropriate and ample, you know, what the Fed is targeting, it's called an ample reserves regime. If we had ample reserves, then that spread would be negative, you know, because, you know, we would see GSEs and the other money market participants lend that, you know, sort of have enough cash to sort of beat that rate down in terms of into a negative spread. But what it's also that positive spread is essentially that trending now, now trending positive spread is essentially saying that, hey, we're running out of cash in the repo market.

And running out of cash in the repo market is, you know, it's like the quote, you know, risk happens slowly than all at once. And that's exactly what we saw in Q4 2018 in terms of the risk happening slowly and then all at once. And so it's our view, based on some of the commentary that we got last week from Treasury Secretary Scott Fessin and Fed Governor Steve Moran, that balance sheet relief is on the way. they're going to do something to expand if that's balance sheet in the coming months to address some of the liquidity uh the tight liquidity conditions that we continue to observe in the repo market um they call what they they essentially float with this new term this acronym reserve management operation purchases which essentially from our perspective based on what we the limited stuff we know now about the program it's essentially like perpetual qe now if it's it will it be done

in enough size and scope and in enough time are in a quick enough time to to kind of um you know kind of sustain the the current uh risk on market regime we shall see uh but the reality is it's coming and so as investors we just have to be patient uh and understand that the fed is going to come i'll save the day as it always does now the market is saying that this is the last one for the most part uh we're gonna get this fed rate cut and then uh sayonara marcus does not think that we're going to get a rate cut uh at any point next year what's going on there yeah well this is this is the this is the issue going back to where we started the discussion this dispersion of views amongst policymakers on the fomc is contributing to a tepid pricing in the u.s dollar

money markets so if you look at the fed funds futures curves in terms of what's being priced in uh beyond next wednesday's uh fomc which is a roughly 90 probability that they cut there's not greater than 50% probability that the Fed cuts any meeting beyond that at all, at all. Now, on an accumulated basis, you know, the rates are gradually going down in terms of the floor Fed funds rate, you know, the minimum value on the overnight MX curve, overnight MX swaps curve, or the minimum value on the Fed funds futures curve is still lower than where we're going to be next Wednesday. But the reality is, it's now a very officially open debate at every single meeting from next

day as to whether the Fed should continue easing monetary policy in the form of interest rate cuts. And so what we're likely to see in the coming months is a divergence between the balance sheet policy and the policy rate policy, in the sense that it's going to be incrementally harder for members of the FOMC to support incremental rate cuts. But it may be the case that the repo market, the funding stress that we continue to observe in the repo market, forces the Fed's hand on balance sheet operations or balance sheet expansion in the form of reserve management operations purchases, aka perpetual QE. Now, you talked earlier about this K-shaped economy. Something that I think people are probably not as aware of is that there's a lot of data that

suggests the bottom of the K has been in this recession. It's three years, I think, according to you. Talk a little bit about that kind of bottom end of the K in this three-year recession and how you got a couple of slides here that basically say it's not going to stop anytime soon. Yeah, no, look, we are on the bottom of the K, my friends. So I would say, or not we, you know, as someone who grew up on the bottom of the K, the very bottom of that K, I know what this feels like. And so when you look at these statistics, these are aggregate economic statistics that we're about to explain. And it shows the kind of the depth of the recession that we are observing for the household, low to medium income households, small businesses and the interest rate sensitive sectors, bottom of the K. So on the first chart we show, the top panel on the first chart shows the under 35-year-old homeownership rate in the country.

That's 36.4%. It's declined by 4 percentage points since the peak in 2020, and it's declined by 7 percentage points since its all-time high back in 2004. So it tells you that, you know, where the millennials and Gen Zs are falling further and further behind from an income and wealth accumulation perspective, of so much so that we're essentially getting towards all-time lows in terms of the under 35-year-old home ownership rate, or at least reported history lows. If you look at the second panel where we show the credit card delinquency rate at 12.4%, that's up about five percentage points since the low in 2022, 12.4% for the aggregate credit card delinquency rate in the economy is almost on par with where it peaked out at towards the tail end of the global financial

crisis and great recession um that's a problem another problem is the auto loan delinquency rate which is now five percent which is up a little bit over one percentage point since it's trough in in late 2022 as well uh that number is essentially at an all-time high uh you know which is consistent with the level that we saw in the gfc uh in the great recession uh similar dynamic with the student loan delinquency rate so what we're essentially highlighting with these statistics is that these aggregate statistics are so the the recession at the bottom of the k is so deep and so bad that we are seeing the aggregate statistics which include the rich people like us by the way there's the the aggregate statistics are bad enough to be on par with

the global financial crisis and great recession so that's obviously one big issue another big issue is that when you kind of zoom in to just the the corporation side of things uh what we on slide eight, is that really since if you index it to the end of 2020, we've seen a significant growth, outpacing of growth for debt for large companies relative to small companies. Large companies have accumulated about 34% more gross debt since the end of 2020. If you look at the Russell 1000 index relative to Russell 2000 companies, which are small cap companies, they've only accumulated about 16% of gross debt since the end of 2020. And that's not, you know, it's almost kind of very unfair because obviously it's made it a lot harder to grow

if you're a small company. If you look at the free cash flow for the large companies, that's grown about 38% since then, whereas the free cash flow for small companies has declined about 56% since then. If you look at the operating margins, you know, we've seen growth in the operating margins, you know, for the large companies, we're currently at 14.4% versus an average of about 13.2% since then. Whereas the small companies, their operating margin has actually declined. We're now at 3.8% versus a high of 7.3% in early 2022. So we've talked about it in this program and in our research behind our paywall and obviously outside on our social media platforms about how the Fed's monetary policy setting is contributing to these case-shaped

dynamics. We're not saying the Fed is causal to the case-shaped economy crisis. In our opinion, we think fiscal policy is primarily the key driver of the case-shaped economy crisis. But what the Fed is doing by having this sort of, I guess, intensifying policy debate is essentially it's not willing to put the people, the high-income consumers, the large businesses, and the non-interest rate sensitive sectors, the cash rich sectors into the same recession that the low to medium income consumers, small businesses and interest rate sensitive sectors

have been in for three years now. And because they're unwilling to do that, they're unwilling to cause pain for rich people and large businesses. We've kind of stuck with this, you know, above target level of inflation. But on the flip side, because the Fed is unwilling to support an economic boom

that will, you know, create prosperity for low to medium income consumers, small businesses and interest rate sensitive sectors will wind up with this languishing economy that's not really doing anything for anyone outside of the large cap companies in the AI bubble. So we have this, we're at this very critical juncture from the perspective of monetary policy, but the Fed's going to have to make a choice. And we think the Fed will make a choice in the context of the next Fed chair and the thought leadership that they're going to have to come armed with to change the minds of their colleagues on the FOMC and ultimately perhaps

change the way the Fed operates. You might see some structural regime change of the Fed in the same way we saw in 2020 with the maximum and inclusive employment mandate that's ultimately in our opinion helped contribute to the 40-year high in inflation. We may see something like that, but in reverse, in the direction of this kind of America first populist economic agenda. And this is how it's going to look. This is how it's going to look. If I were advising Kevin asset, it was likely to be the next venture. One, you come in and say, hey, it's unacceptable to have a K-shaped economy. We got to get the Fed on board with supporting growth. And by the way, we're about to have going to a productivity boom, a disinflationary productivity

boom because of AI. So we don't have to be as worried about inflation. And if you look at the pricing of the inflation swaps market, that seems to be where we're headed anyway. So I think there's plenty of credible, forward-looking arguments for why the Fed should undergo structural regime change and is likely to undergo structural regime change. Now, you guys have a bunch of internal models that you guys run. You've got this positioning model that really measures the momentum or reversal of momentum. What is that telling you guys right now? Today's episode is brought to you by DeFi Development Corp. Global wealth today exceeds $500 trillion, yet crypto still represents less than 1% of that total. DeFi Development Corp,

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And the reason we say this is that when you get to this point in the positioning cycle with such crowded, bullish positioning as indicated by the eight positioning cycle indicators, on the right side of that table there on the right, those eight positioning cycle indicators most correlate with the full market cycle. The ones to the left generally correlate with kind of the shorter term tactical movements in the market, and they're helpful for making shorter term tactical market calls. The eight indicators on the right tell you if you're at the bottom of a bear market or at the top of a bull market. And seven of the eight are telling you you're at the top of the bull market. And so what that means is that you need to accumulate

good news to continue the market's uptrip. And it's likely to be the case. If we get structural change at the Fed in the same way that we saw, not the same way, but in a similar manner to what we saw in 2020, then yes, that monetary policy cycle dynamic, which will ultimately have a positive impact on the growth cycle, as well as the liquidity cycle, you've check, check, check with monetary policy growth and liquidity, markets are going to continue going higher and bull right through this level of crowded bullish positioning. The problem is, if we don't get the structural gene change at the Fed, if we don't get the reserve management operation purchases, and if interest rates get stuck where they are, because there's such a dispersion of views amongst

FOMC participants regarding the natural rate of the Fed funds rate, or sorry, the R-star, then we're going to have significant problems, because you cannot start to accumulate bad news from this starting point of crowded bullish positioning in the position zone. Now, you also have the KISS model that you guys have been working on a long time. We've talked about for many years now. What's that telling you? Well, I'll tell you what, it's probably one of the best years I've ever had as an investor. But the key takeaway from what's...

Say it again, Darius. What'd you say? This is one of the best years I've ever had, both on a raw and absolute, both on an absolute return basis and risk-adjusted return basis. At no point, at no point in 2025, did my account decline from, was my account underwater from where it was in December 2024. At no point, at no point. Is that good?

But that's the thing here. We're not, we're not here to, we're not here to brag. We're here to educate. And so let me, so let me explain where we are with regards to KISS currently. KISS has been 0% Bitcoin. And the reason I'm bringing this up is because obviously we're a Bitcoin-focused program and i myself being a bitcoiner um you know i think it's important to kind of you know highlight how you know kiss is we're managing some of these um drawdowns in the asset class you know kiss

uh took us down to uh from its maximum exposure of 10 bitcoin to half of this maximum exposure of 10 bitcoin uh on just on october 30th so it went to a five percent position and then went to a zero percent position on uh november 7th uh from november 7th to the lows of 2020 uh november 21st, there was about a 23, 24% drawdown that was avoided from that perspective. Now, eventually, if Bitcoin starts to gather some more momentum and its volatility, just the momentum signal really starts to improve, then KISS will start to increase its exposure to Bitcoin, let's say going back to 5% and ultimately back to 10%. And that's exactly what I expect to happen.

Our modal outcome is that we are headed for structural regime change at the Fed, that we are headed for reserve management operation purchases. And so ultimately, this, you know, very effective, you know, this most recent incredibly effective pivot by KISS to risk manage the Bitcoin drawdown and chop off the left side of the left tail of the distribution, which is exactly what KISS is designed to do. You know, it's going to give us an opportunity to compound returns from higher net asset value from where we initially sold the position. So I just wanted to highlight that most recent KISS pivot with regards to Bitcoin, because ultimately, I think there's two schools of thoughts here. You know, I think for, you know, if you if you the older you get and the more money you have and the more, I guess, life risk you have, whether it be old elderly parents, kids in school, kids in college and just general life risk, the more it becomes important to avoid volatility. drag. And what we mean by volatility of drag is that spread you at negative delta between what you would have made had you managed risk versus what you make if you were a buy and hold investor.

And so we continue to highlight the power of what we built here in terms of KISS. And then I'll finally end on this last slide on slide 11. Dr. Mo. Dr. Mo. Well, yeah. So I'm just using our Dr. Mo back test. Dr. Mo was essentially KISS, but for 70 different factors for institutional investors. And so what I'm highlighting here in this chart here with regards to the backtest for Bitcoin and Ethereum, what we show here for Bitcoin is that when Dr. Mo is telling you to be long KISS, which is essentially the same thing as being long 5% or 10% in KISS, when Dr. Mo is telling you to be long Bitcoin, which is the same as a 5% position in KISS if it's a long half position or a 10% position in KISS if it's a long max position, 120% of the cumulative performance

since the inception of the Bitcoin asset class has come where Dr. Mo is telling you to be long max position or KISS is telling you to be long 10%, a 10% position. So that means if you would have made $100 in Bitcoin and cumulative performance from the inception of the asset class, you actually would have made $120 plus if you were only long when you're supposed to be long,

which is when KISS and Dr. Mo are telling you to be long. That same statistic is 333% for Ethereum. So if you would have made $100 in Ethereum since the inception of the asset class in 2017, I believe, instead of making $100, you would have actually made $333 by just being long Ethereum when Kiss and Dr. Mo, or not Kiss, Ethereum is not Kiss, but when Dr. Mo was telling you to be long Ethereum. So the key takeaway I'm making is that there's kind of a few key takeaways. One, we're likely at infrastructural gene change at the Fed.

Two, the dispersion of views amongst monetary policymakers with regards to the neutral rate suggest that we could get some more market volatility around trying to get to lower interest rates. And they even get trapped wherever we are in the next week. We may get trapped there, at least for a couple of quarters before we get the new secular regime change at the Fed. And ultimately, the path that markets take to get the reserve management operation purchases and the structural regime change at the Fed may be one that includes a deeper drawdown. It may not include a deeper drawdown. I don't live in fear of not knowing the answer to that question because we know that Kiss and Dr. Mo and the trend-following elements in those systems

will eventually get us to the right asset allocation so we can compound returns at higher net asset values and ultimately capture more of the uptrend than was otherwise available to investors in buy-and-hold strategies. Where can people find out more about 42 Macro, Dr. Mo, Kiss, and all these things you're talking about? Well, I appreciate you. Thank you again, as always, for this opportunity to educate my friend. Come to 42macro.com if you're interested in participating. joining our global investor community. We're totally fine with that. You know, it's my passion

to change the investing habits of the general public. You know, we think, you know, there's just a very different way that we folks on Global Wall Street invest, particularly the folks charging $2.20 and $3.30 for their funds. There's a very different way

than we invest relative to the median retail investor. And we're proving, you know, with the results that we've had in case for the last three years, that there is a much, much, much better way to invest than what the average median

retail investors out there are doing. So come check us out at 42macro.com if you want to join our global investor community. And if you don't, then come just follow me on Twitter. I'm at 42macrodale. I think, yeah. No, no, I'm sorry. I'm at DariusDale42 on Twitter and then obviously DariusDale on LinkedIn. So thanks again for having me.

Appreciate you guys. You're doing a great job, man. I learn something from you every single time we talk. I even learned from following you on X. Yeah, I just, I basically just, you're like my intellectual Sherpa to make sure that I'm learning something new every day. I appreciate it very much and we'll do it again next month. likewise brother and that is a like i mean likewise in terms of thank you for having me

and we'll do it again next month but mostly i mean i learned a tremendous amount from you too man you're one of the smartest people i've ever met i'm very grateful to be a long-time friend of yours and i continue to root for you and all your success man you're doing a lot of great work for the investing public so keep it up i appreciate you all right talk next month cheers man thank you