The Pomp Podcast - What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right Now | Jordi Visser
Episode Date: April 4, 2026Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical ...tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.=====================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp), allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~8.5% APY on real world assets, paid hourly. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp =====================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=====================0:00 - Intro1:04 - Why markets are so hard to read right now8:29 – Inflation battle: deflation vs energy spike17:00 - How AI is changing business & investing27:07 - DOGE: Debt, Oil, Growth, Employment35:57 – Private credit risks & advice for kids using AI 39:37 - AI security risks, Mythos & cyber threats43:16 - Capital structure disruption & bitcoin as scarcity
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Bitcoin is a scarcity asset. Remember, the theme has been long scarcity, short abundance.
That trade has made a lot of money this year for people. I know it because people still want to
see me when I go out on the road. If it didn't work, they wouldn't want to see me. And I think
we're only in the early stages of it. And Bitcoin will be part of it, just like oil has been part
of it. And I warned about oil for a year. It took a little while. We finally got there.
The Fed's going to be in decision making. Remember, that's all the Bitcoin people.
What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this one,
we talk about what's happening with the Iran war, oil and gas prices are going higher,
the labor market's throwing off some shaky signs, and investors are confused. What exactly
is going on? Should I be bullish, bearish? Should I protect my capital or should I go
risk on? Jordy's here to answer that question. On top of that, we obviously talk about artificial
intelligence and all of the different breakthroughs. And then we give some specific examples from
this week that have come out of how people are using this to make real money, build real
companies, and actually figure out that it's not just a bunch of hype, but people are using
this to strip out inefficiencies in their personal life and in their businesses. And
it's pretty cool to see. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. I hope you
guys enjoy it. All right, Jordy, I think people are just confused. I'm confused to a degree,
right? There's a bunch of data points that if you look at on an isolated basis,
I look at data point A, wow, the market is recovering this week. That's really bullish.
Then I look at energy prices and hey, that's going up. That should create inflation. That's
a negative signal. How do you evaluate a market where there are different signals,
positive and negative. And it's really just confusing investors. And that's why you get so
much heated debate online as to like, are we going to go up? Are we going to go down? Are we going to
be okay or not? So first of all, the belief that I always have that everyone always should is the
market knows more than any person. So we sit here, we talk about things, I talk about it. But my
number one gauge for everything about what the future is going to be is what the market is
telling me. I don't believe like when everyone was saying the market's wrong about software,
the market's wrong about private equity. I hear that repeatedly. Those people are wrong. They're
making a big mistake. Now I can create a narrative and say that AI disruption will
wreck the terminal value of a software company because now you have to price them differently.
That's a narrative for me. Now I believe it and I believe it more when I don't hear people
admitting that who don't use AI because their value doesn't go. So I told you my father trained
me in handicapping. Another thing he trained me of is he said, you're going to get better odds on
the horses if you go to Pompano Racetrack in Florida, where it's mainly bettors who are not
as sharp as they are at the Meadowlands or at a New York racetrack where professional gamblers
are going there. If professional gamblers make up 30% of the betting pool of a track and down
in Florida. It's mainly tourists and old people just going out to have a good night. The reason
gamblers don't go there is because there's not enough money to bet you'd impact the odds. So,
but he took me to both tracks. The reason I bring that up is that's the way the market kind of goes.
So the reason I use sentiment from people, it's good. What do you think about AI disrupting
software? That's, that's not right. Even when really smart people who are in the public know
who say this is just like the.com bubble who are tech people. I don't say they don't know
anything about AI, I know they don't use it because I asked them. There's a usage thing with
AI. So I think the confusion for the market has to be thought about here in the context of the
market is discounting the future. It is not discounting the present. It is literally telling
you what is going to happen in the future. The problem is right now, when you look at what's
happened in the market this year, it's been grinding down without a tremendous amount of
volatility. There's deleveraging that's happening. And I talked about this as the big risk for last
year, which I still think is happening. I think we will lose a headline hedge fund this year
because of what's happening. I expected there to be a rotation. I highlighted last week that before
this 4% rally in the S&P this week, six of the 11 sectors in the S&P were up for the year.
So you think the market is confusing. I don't think it is. The model portfolio that I put
together through last week was up 17% year to date. Those are all hardware names. Those are
things related to the agentic side. Those are not things related to software and banks and stuff
like that. So I think the market is actually making more sense than people are. We're entering
a very, let's say, difficult period because your confusion comment is right. We don't know
what's going to happen to recession risk. We don't know what's going to happen to inflation.
We know inflation is going higher. It probably means growth is going to be weakening because
we have oil prices around the globe. Forget the futures prices. Where we closed yesterday,
spot oil, like the physical oil was at $140. So futures are kind of paper trading and it's people
gambling and it's people on future things. But the current price today is $140. And so you're
going to see a growth impact in Asia. You're going to see a growth impact in parts of Europe. Maybe
it won't be as big in the US, but you have to start to reassess. So when you hear the word
stagflation, rather than kind of go through the differences, that is a state of confusion,
because normally when growth gets higher, you get worried about inflation. But when growth is going
down and inflation is going on, guess what? Fed's got a tough battle. All right. There's a couple
of things that I want to give you the counter narrative to, and you tell me whether you agree
or disagree. Let's start with the efficient market hypothesis, which is the market is smart.
I agree the market is smart, but I think that a lot of great investors would argue actually the
most common state of the market is they are wrong, mispriced, there's opportunity, et cetera.
Can both of those things be true at the same time where the market gets it right, but actually
these great investors are just, you know, excellent at exploiting the inefficiencies
when they show up.
So when you, when you say the market, I don't agree that the market is wrong.
Investors are wrong.
Investors drive the market, but think about how bad the sentiment was the entire rally
last year.
There was a difference.
Yeah.
And there, but there's a difference between the market and the sentiment.
So when you say market, you're kind of alluding to the fact that it's investors.
investors do drive it. But for a small amount of time, the smart investors, because when
Liberation Day happened last year, it's easy for us to say that the market went higher and tariffs
weren't a big deal. Initially, what he said were tariffs that were going to be massively more.
So the market reacted to, oh, my God, he pulled out that board.
The science fair project.
To be honest, it was awesome.
I mean, but it was gone within three days.
So I think the market responded the way it should, which is if you're going to take six
weeks on this, you don't know.
The market is, I would say, going the other way right now with oil prices.
It's saying, OK, he's going to do the same thing as last year.
He pulls out this card.
He doesn't actually mean it.
A lot of the things that he said in the speech the other night, they don't jive with what's
actually happening.
But the market is basically saying that we don't think, well, this is my impression.
Market is saying to me, even at $110, $120 oil, we don't think a recession is happening.
And that's because there are sectors in the market that are doing extremely well.
The video I'll show this weekend, like transportation stocks, oil prices should be
knocking off demand.
The rates for stuff, X, the fuel costs are still going higher.
The build out of AI is happening.
It sent memory chips, all of this stuff. So I have to remember, if oil prices stay up here,
the market is doing what it should do. And that's why when I say multiple compression
is the story for this year, multiple compression means your forecast of the future of the ability
for companies to make money. I don't agree with it. I think that's what a multiple supposed to
say is how long is this growth prospect going to go? I think what it's doing is looking forward
and saying, we have this temporary thing with oil, but we have this bigger pressure, which is AI is
accelerating at such a fast pace that that future keeps coming closer and closer to disruption.
That is the major story. That's why when we spoke and I said, this is a absolutely
a supersonic tsunami. And I heard you use it with Peter Diamandis on your interview.
It's the right way to look at it. And Peter did a great job of explaining the comment. Elon Musk
has done a great job. I don't do a great job with that. But let's just say, from a market
perspective, the PE of the market out three years is being pushed down because of this.
So you said that inflation is going higher. I have been very clear with people for, I don't know,
five years now. The number one signal I look at is true inflation. I know that it is somewhat
still controversial. People are skeptical. How could this private company create this
metric, whatever? My understanding in looking at the data is there's about a 98% correlation
between the bls cpi and the true inflation inflation measurement uh but cpi is just one
month lagged behind so uh with that as the backdrop um it is very notable that inflation
went from 0.8 on true inflation before the war to 1.7 almost 1.8 right huge explosion on like a
percentage basis more than double we just got the updated numbers because all the april data
on april 1st updated and it dropped from 1.7 to 1.2 so if you look into the data what they're
showing is that there was four major sectors i think it was transport utility housing and food
that all now are in very slight but still deflation right it's negative growth in those uh sectors
i from my perspective see a battle between like structural deflationary pressures and the
supersonic tsunami and you know all the stuff with this short-term oil price that's spiking
and should lead to higher inflation.
How do you handicap which one wins?
And like, if I'm an investor,
at what point do I stop worrying about the structural stuff
and I start worrying about this short-term thing?
And I think you're kind of getting at this
with the market basically being like,
even if gas prices are higher,
we're not gonna have a recession.
Is that the market trying to handicap
like this whole inflationary thing?
Well, on the first point about trueflation,
um number one the reason i seldom if ever reference it is because it doesn't drive the
market meaning investors aren't paying attention to it they're not going through it so that the
first thing second thing and to be fair there's a lot of investors who not only aren't paying
attention but they think it um they thumb their nose at it right like it's almost like when
somebody says it they're very dismissive of it so to your point their data does not drive
the majority of investors decision making. And the Fed doesn't comment about it. So
monetary policy is not set off of it. And we know the nuances between it. So as a real time
indicator right now, the cost of oil going higher is only seen through gas at the pump.
You're going to try to tell me that transportation, like I know transportation costs are going high.
Of course. I see the rates. So what trufflation is real time, that's the benefit of kind of using it.
the gas at the pump the fertilizer the food prices that'll all start kicking in with a lag
so it isn't going to tell you and at times especially when you have something like this
it's going to lag behind because cpi hasn't gone higher yet we haven't got the report and when we
get out i mean we just had the report for um for february and it wasn't higher because gas at the
pump was still here's what's interesting right and again this is i don't know exactly why this
happens but i was looking at uh on the transport side used in new cars prices have started to come
down yep obviously gas prices are going up and so when you look at transport it when i say deflation
i'm not talking about prices drop 10 right i'm talking about they drop you know 0.1 0.2 0.3
and so it is a slight like it rolled over and it's starting to come down uh slightly so let's
just call it flat that still to me feels like okay you have i mean gas prices are four bucks
right over four dollars so it does feel like this battle between like if new and used cars are
coming down it's offsetting the like higher gas prices i just don't know how long that can last
right so let's go back to core inflation versus headline and headline inflation is the one that
i'm talking about only for one reason it is there's a reason why we have core inflation
that was to strip out the commodity side we have a k-shaped economy housing affordability
is already a bad level, we are not going to see shelter go up. Wages are dropping. We have
deflation happening in probably the bulk of the economy. So housing, if the housing market isn't
there, do you know how many things are in the CPI related to housing? Like furniture,
like everything that goes in a house, that is a massive amount of dollars that gets spent when
you buy a home and then to fill it out. All of us use lots. Same thing goes for utility. Gas
at the pump is higher but natural gas is actually down in the country so inflation is a weird thing
and this is the reason why when i tell people i don't believe inflation is going to stay higher
i do believe that oil prices have now reset to higher levels because they're not going back down
we've done way too much damage and that's why um anyone who thought this was a temporary thing
on my video last week i said this is officially a regime shift ai is causing this and the commodity
problems not going around. So if you're living at home and you're going through this, you're
going to see some costs go down because the job market's not great. The housing market's not great
and nobody's going to go buy cars if those things aren't working. And so there's parts of the
economy in deflation. There's parts of them that are there. This is different than 2022. And I
think people forget this. This is why I wrote the piece on the dilemma for the Fed. When the Fed
fought inflation in 2022, let's assume we do get a spike in inflation up to 7%. We got up to nine
and change in 10 with 2022, but the housing market was on fire in 2022. We created 4 million jobs in
2022. We're creating no jobs and the housing market is falling. So this is a very different
time. And if you get an inflation spike, the Fed can't react to it the same way it did last time.
And that's why I wrote the piece that Bitcoin is in this weird spot where you're actually probably
going to have the Fed at a point where they have to focus on the dual mandate, which is,
hey, the job market's still weak.
We got a labor number today.
Hey, great.
It was 178,000 jobs.
Surprised on the upside.
OK, last month was 91.
We revised it to minus 133, which means over the two months we created 45,000 jobs.
And guess what?
Ex-healthcare, it was negative.
Again, this problem we're in right now is AI is having an impact on many, many industries
slowly but surely.
and that puts pressure on the Fed.
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so i'm going to give you a couple of examples of where ai is now showing up because i think you and
i talk about it a lot as like this high level thing but i think the specifics are now um they're
too hard to ignore right so the first one is uh there's a story that broke um on a company called
medvi m-e-d-v-i and it's a guy in los angeles who spent twenty thousand dollars plus his time and
Energy to create essentially a GLP-1 sales front end. Now he has two partner businesses that are
like the infrastructure. So really it's kind of like the skin on top of the pharmacy and all this
stuff. So he's really creating landing pages, doing the marketing, acquiring the users, helping
to process the payments, but they're the ones who are doing all the healthcare stuff. So it was just
him. Now he's hired one other person, his brother. So there's two guys. In the first year, they did
400 million dollars of sales they are claimed to be on track to do 1.8 billion dollars of sales
in their second year all ai they used ai to build the website to do the marketing to
know what to do next you know all this kind of stuff i saw stat i don't know if this is true
but uh the stat i saw is hymns does like 2.5 billion in revenue and these guys are claiming
they're gonna do 1.8 maybe they're wrong right but let's let's just hold constant what they're
night. That to me feels like a lot of deflation. How do you do 1.8 billion in revenue with two
dudes? One way that I know they won't hit those numbers is because you're talking about it.
There's now a bunch of people going, I want some of that 1.8 billion.
I've realized something more and more over the last couple of months. And I was just in Boston.
And when I travel, which is not often, I do spend a lot of time talking to people.
But this was a big trip.
You're talking to big dogs.
Well, I was talking, yeah, investors.
I was talking to a lot of important investors throughout Boston.
But in terms of just people I also meet, your show has brought me some notoriety.
And so people will stop and talk to me.
Well, your comments created it.
Whatever the question is, they will stop and we'll talk.
And I always ask the question, what are you using AI for?
And the majority of people, unfortunately, are still using it solely as a chatbot.
It's a replacement for Google search.
I'm going to say this again for you guys that have kids that are late in high school and
in college.
They need to be using it all the day and you need to be inspiring them and getting them
to do it.
I promise I will be releasing occasionally some 15 minute, 20 minute things on YouTube
on my channel to try and help people with their kids because I've worked a lot with
my son, he's doing phenomenally well with it. But if it wasn't for me paying for him to use Claude
and giving him a higher thing, even for a month to use some of these agentic tools, we are getting
a separation. And this is the thing that bothers me. It's open to anyone. Anyone free can be using
it and can learn how to use it. So the story you're mentioning with someone who turns a business in,
I'm going through this firsthand. My business is growing both on the consulting side and on
the paywall trying to help investors make money. And my focus is on FAs and RIAs and helping them
now model portfolios, the names that you need. How do we get through the private credit side?
What do you need to know about private credit? That's the value I can bring to people is to
provide them the information to keep their clients from panicking and find other ways for them to
help them not be in this position of going through it. I just don't feel enough people
understand what you're saying, which is if you don't use it, you will never be able to
improve your golf game, your skiing? Like it's this thing of you got to put the reps in to
actually be able to accomplish that. I don't want to use his name cause I don't know if he'd be
comfortable, but there's a gentleman that uses Sylvia, the product that we built. And, um, he's
a blue collar guy who lives in the Midwest. And, uh, we recently did a call with him because we
noticed that there was some user that was using the product in a way that had to be different.
Right. And so we reached out and said, Hey, you know, do you want to jump on a call?
And he showed us exactly how he's using it. Long story short is he has figured out how to use
Sylvia to identify potential M&A targets in the biotech space. And in the last, I think he said
like last 30 days or so, five different companies he's an investor in have been bought by some of
the big pharma companies. He has doubled his portfolio value in the last, I think since
like november or december right and he's explaining all the stuff to me and everything and the first
thing he keeps saying he's almost like you know uh self-conscious about the fact he's like look
i'm a blue collar guy i don't know anything he never had used another ai product before yep right
and so the way he's using it is just the same way that any of us would use you know kind of ai but
he's using it inside the silvia product and i we got off the call and i said to shaner co-founder
i was like do you understand the power of a product to help a guy like this that now has
the superhuman intelligence like get going and then i heard uh brex's ceo so brex just got bought
by capital one so you know once you kind of reach the top of the mountain everyone wants to talk to
you it's been going on his little podcast tour and uh somebody asked him about ai and long story
short is he's using open claw but basically sounds like he gave it full access email calendar slack
whatsapp company dashboards metrics documents everything there's like a two-minute clip
floating around online of him describing what he's doing with it. And not only is it, you know,
figuring out what emails to answer and WhatsApp and all this, sending him reports, looking through
all the company's information and then saying, here's the next things that you should do. I mean,
it would be like having an army of McKinsey consultants that are surrounding you trying
to help you run the business. I mean, how deflationary is that? This whole thing is
incredible i i mean the deflationary side and so people um what you just described i'm in the early
process for viscer labs because i've got i have multiple revenues dope name dope name so my viscer
labs thing which the website's horrible all the stuff i've kind of left it alone because most of
my business has come through through 22v and through just direct relationships with people
i have but i'm trying to expand the the ability to to respond to people to go through this to
have active emails going, but I don't want to hire someone to be involved. So I have to do it
through open cloth. I'm going to kind of give people, this will inspire some people to use it.
And I started, I've talked about this in Boston. So I've had a unique experience over the last
year. Some of the people that watch this show have made money investing in some of the names
that I've talked about and whether it's Micron. I was going to say, did Micron go up a lot?
Whether it was Salesforce being short Salesforce.com versus long Chevron, all of these things.
I talked a lot last year about you have to have energy in your portfolio because it is replacing bonds as this.
Because eventually, if there's something that happens, it'll be on the inflation side because we are running out of power.
The only reason I bring it up, I realized something this week because on my paywall, I put out a new spotlight name out of one of the thematic baskets.
And the next day, there was an announcement where someone made an investment in the company.
The next day.
Now, this has happened to multiple times.
And what I started to realize was I spend so much time taking public transcripts of,
let's just take an example of someone who speaks all the time, Jensen Yu Wang.
That guy speaks, I mean, five times a week.
If you take all his transcripts, you put them into a folder, which I do.
and then you have co-work go in and you basically say what should i invest in based on what he has
said on everything he said you know what these guys do they actually tell you what to buy not
in direct words no no but they know they know what i need and so whether it was meta with
corning somewhere within meta statements is the thing of you know what we're they won't say the
name because that's illegal. But what they will basically describe is a place. It's like if you
ask someone, where did you go? I'm not going to tell you where I went because I don't want you
to go to the same place, but I'll describe it to you. If they describe too much, AI is going to
figure it out. Or they take a picture now and you just upload it and identify anyone. Which is
scary. AI is the smartest. So when you start going into 140 IQ, and I want to give people another
thing because right now we're disrupting software. But in these meetings in Boston, what I'm starting
to say to people is you have to understand we are in the agentic side. So here's the most powerful
thing. You and I have never talked about this. You know about the Manhattan Project. Oppenheimer
came out. Everyone saw Oppenheimer. They know what it is. You take the brightest minds. Let's
assume that everyone had Einstein's IQ. You take 50, 160 IQ people. You stick them in a room and
you say you solved the nuclear bomb. And they do. We are in the agentic side, which means there are
millions of einsteins by the end of this year working together on the world's greatest problems
it's awesome well this disruption that has happened to software guys it's going to happen to
everything because there will be manhattan projects going on constantly the only thing
we're lacking is the compute to solve cancer the compute to do this we will get there because those
problems take so much computation to get through that it might be millions of einsteins but the
point being, do not fade this disruption that's happening. Do not sit there and listen to people
saying, this is just like buying Amazon. No, this is not. This is a unique thing. It is. This is a
million Einstein's fighting all arbitrages and all inflation because as Jeff Bezos famously said,
your margin is my opportunity. If you tell open claw that with a million Einstein's,
go find any margins and go through it. That's why I made the joke about MedVic. Whatever they're
doing now. You've disclosed it. Now everyone's going to be competing. Oh, it's not because I
disclosed it. I think I can't remember if it was the New York Times or Wall Street Journal wrote
a cover photo of the guy standing there in the email. I was like, hey, that business is definitely
going to be under pressure. You wrote this piece this week called Doge, but it was debt, oil,
growth, and employment. Talk a little bit as to why these four things you put together.
so i wanted to make sure that um well there's a two there's a couple things um so let's start
with what i said before which is it's very difficult for the fed to do what it did in 2022
and let's just peel the this apart so people remember in 2022 we had a raging employment
market we had yolo it was difficult to get people to go back to work now the quits rate continues to
go lower. A quits rate within the jolts report is what percentage of people are looking to quit
their job. Now that means you have the ability of getting a job. When the quits rate is low,
it means people are scared that they're not going to be able to get a job. So they're not quitting.
So back then the quits rate was really high. Like everyone, I mean, it was a, how much will you pay
me? How much will you pay me? Everyone was switching jobs. There was no loyalty. There
was nothing. And the housing market was on fire. I couldn't find a home in Maine to buy. I couldn't
find one because every time it went on the market, it was gone. Everyone knew this problem.
Blackstone was involved. They're buying things. They're renting them out. So here we are now,
completely different situation. Now growth is down. The Fed can't do the Paul Volcker,
we're going to fight inflation. And it's only oil-based, but let's assume it spreads to other
things, which is what happens a lot of times. And we actually see core inflation go higher.
This is a dilemma for the Fed, but there's two other points.
So I've said this is like the 1970s.
And I believe with oil now having a floor that's moved up, we spent last year between
50 and 70 for the bulk of the year.
Well, now we're talking 70 to 90 for the rest of the year and probably a little bit longer.
Well, that's going to make inflation be above the threshold that they're comfortable with.
Will they tighten or will they cut rates?
Well, he's got a Fed chair coming in, which I mentioned.
Here are the two problems that I mention all the time.
this economy is leveraged in two ways. Number one, guys, you've heard about debt to GDP being
at 120%. You've heard that interest expense on that debt is greater than defense. We were going
from zero interest rates in 2022. If you raise them now, you are raising into already having
expense up there. They raised them high and then they started to bring them back down quickly,
not quickly enough for President Trump, but they did do that. So that's one difference. Debt to
GDP, what Ray Dalio runs around going, this will end badly. We have that situation. They cannot
raise rates. Second problem, they cannot raise rates because equity market cap to GDP is now
220%. If they fight this down and he knocks the stock market down, that's not going to work
either. Stock market's higher than it was in 2022, and the economy's weaker. So you had a lot
of cushion with this money supply. So if they fight this, they are really taking the leverage
of the system. And oh, by the way, we have a credit cycle which is in force, which is every
day there's a new thing, massive redemptions from Blue Allen in the most recent time. So
the point of it was to remember the structural condition. In the 1970s, do you guys want to know
what the debt, the GDP of the country was? Well, at that time it was 30% between 30 and 35.
The equity market was 40%. So now we are at 120 on the debt side. So we're three times the 40.
And on the equity side, we are seven times the size. So what that means is they may want to do
something. They may want to fight inflation. They cannot. So for Bitcoin, it is going to win
for all of the reasons. We need cryptography. We need something that doesn't have a moat.
I'm just telling you, when they make that decision to cut rates while inflation is high,
I don't want to be the one sitting. That is the moment to me that they're going to have to
come with something. You've got pressure from the White House, isn't an independent Fed,
all of the things there. And I don't think there's going to be a recession. So no recession,
inflation on the higher side, run it hot. Debasement happens through a stock market,
which kind of burns off that 220%. And my ultimate vision is that through multiple compression in 10
years, the equity market relative to GDP gets back to 100%, which used to be the cap. Now for that to
happen, if we compound GDP at 7% anomaly for the next 10 years, for those of you playing the rule
of 72 book, that means we will have double GDP to 60 trillion, which is right where the equity
market is. So if the equity market is unchanged for a decade, we've had debasement of the stock
market, the money is still going to look for returns. And the reason I say this, we can't
have it collapse, but we can have it go sideways. And the transfer goes from wealthy people that
own assets, and it goes to people who own Bitcoin. And the reason Bitcoin will go higher is because
pension funds and endowments and all these places, they still have liabilities they have to meet.
And to meet those liabilities, they have to invest in whatever is going higher.
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arch public go to archpublic.com and tell them i sent you you know what's an interesting part of
this wealth transfer is um uh you were talking earlier about like using these tools and going
and trying to figure stuff out i recently used uh co-work to take control of a browser and i gave it
access to zillow and you probably could go pull like through api data whatever i don't know how
doing this stuff. I just said, cowork, here's access to a browser that Zillow's open. And I
just started typing in different cities around the country. And I've said, go and look at homes
that are for sale and their pricing history and go look at homes that sold in their pricing history
and tell me what's happening in Phoenix, Arizona, in terms of our home prices that are actually
selling selling below or at or above asking prices if you got a home right now you don't
want to look at that data because it's not good right all these people putting their homes out
and i'm talking about in some depending on what city 12 13 percent lower than asking price i mean
just and not like one example multiple examples whatever the reason why i started thinking about
this is like you see all stats that uh the kind of boomer generations got you know in some cases
60% of their net worth tied up in their primary home and all this. Most of them aren't going to
leave, right? So they don't care. They paid it off. They're staying there forever. But there
is a good amount of people who are like, I'm either stuck or the amount of net worth I thought
I had, I don't have because this home price is now coming down. And so I think about how that
psychologically changes what they do in their investment portfolio, right? And you've talked
in the past about longevity. So if you're going to live longer, right? Well, also, if you're
actually not sitting on as much net worth as you thought, these things start to change the way that
people interact with the market. And then you have all the uncertainty on top of it. And I think
that's where a lot of the confusion is coming from, is they just feel like they're kind of
under attack from different elements. And you bring up a good point. I'm going to break it
into two parts. The first one is on this point, let's go back to Silicon Valley Bank. So in the
modern day, we had a run on a bank that happened overnight. I was part of it. Were you? Yeah,
I was on my, I was on my computer and I never told you a story.
No, I was on zoom and, uh, you know, in crypto, we're like a bank run experts, right?
So, you know, there's a rumor there's smoke.
There's probably fire.
You're out of there.
Um, and, uh, I was on a zoom call.
I remember it was Thursday morning.
Uh, somebody texted me and said, uh, you know, I'm here and there could be a problem.
Whatever they said.
I didn't even think twice.
I just literally, while on the zoom call, opened it up, went over, hit withdraw.
I thought I was being overly cautious.
by the end of the day it was over yeah right and so inadvertently i was part of it but just crypto
had trained get the hell out of here so everyone should remember that story um because silicon
valley bank was fine okay it was fine now they had a lot of treasure they took in too much money
and they put that money into treasuries and the treasuries fell 20 because they listened to the
Fed. But this is money good, right? You know what this sounds a little bit like? Private credit.
Sounds a little bit like private credit. The difference is depositors can take their money
out whenever they want. And in the digital world, they can take it out quickly. The only thing
preventing private credit right now from being in this position, all these things going under,
is they have gates. If they didn't have gates, it would be under. So every time I hear someone say,
there's no problem in private credit, I'm like, there's always a problem, guys. And the reason is
this. This is a Ponzi scheme. This is leverage. I'm not saying these words to be dramatic.
The fractional reserve banking system, by definition, is go back to It's a Wonderful Life.
Said in plain words, but we don't have your money. Your money's not here. It's in their home. It's in
his business. That's what it is. You take in a dollar and you lend it out 10 times.
Okay, well, if everyone tries to come for their money at the same time, it's a problem. So private
credit may not have any disruption on the bonds. And people might say you're overreacting. But part
of the thing that overreacts, which gets back to your point, is the fact that these stories come
out in the digital world. You can find everything you want. So the housing market, one of the great
things about it is the opaque nature of it. One house trades up, everyone's house goes up. One
house doesn't trade, but it's marked down. Nobody's house goes down. It's not marked down
until I sell it. So that is the reality of more price discovery and having this. Now, for the
parents listening, what Anthony just told you, what you can do with a computer right now. So
that's not a chatbot example. You're using cowork, but also computer usage. So those are two things
that didn't exist two months ago from, from Claude for your kids. What are they like? I guarantee
some of you have sons and daughters who liked fantasy, whatever football, baseball, what he
just did. All you need is a customer account at anything where they log in. And now you can use
AI to go build your team, to go follow all the stats, to go through it. You don't have to go
hunt and sort by this. You can let the AI do it. So again, these are the ways that you inspire your
kids to use it. That will turn into them getting a job because they know how to use the simple
things that Claude has for free. Perfect example to kind of break off two points. It brings price
discovery. It speeds up fear. At the same point, it leads to kids being able to use it for tools.
I wish I had it when I was taking those standardized tests and stuff, right? There's
going to be such a market for identify who's using the Claude co-work, whatever. But there's
some kids somewhere in a high school right now who hasn't done work in about six months. He's
got the AI just knocking it out for him. Let me, if my kids right now were going into college and
they were taking the SAT. So we pay all these tutors to give them SAT. So a lot of you people
are going to respond to this because guess what? I know what time of the year it is. And I know
what's starting to go for everyone's stressing about college. Well, if they want to get better
an SAT score, what's the best way to do it? Take the test, take a test online, have someplace to
log into. And then the places that you get wrong, have those exported and then have them teach you
just on those areas extensively, as opposed to you going in and have a human being go one by one by
one, do it online and then have AI say, Hey, this is something I'm clearly not good at. Help me do.
I guarantee you that is a better way to raise your SAT score. I just made it up on the fly.
100 100 last thing i want to ask you about is uh anthropic is crushing it they got the momentum
everyone's really excited i think their competitors are panicking and then oops wait mythos and the
source code leak what's your take uh merker also i think there was a data hack uh there
what's your take as to like the speed versus the security of some of these things and should people
be concerned well it's funny uh so for the subscribers i did write a piece on mythos
because it was that important to me um the end result is when you read the news on mythos
we are much closer to dangerous things than people realize in terms of ai so this is a model
so this is like not opus this is mythos but it's the next version of claude so you've had sonnet
you've had opus this is mythos the problem is they've given it to the government and they've
given it to the cyber guys and said we don't want to release this it's it's scary and i we feel it
could be a major like anyone could hack anything so please take a look so you're prepared for this
now anthropic has to make money so they definitely released it but here's the thing at chat gpt
leapfrogged everyone to release the original chat gpt we were the llms were out there everyone knew
about it but they released it and then you saw that they took over so the leapfrogging that
happens is because these guys are they're borrowing tons of money and they're spending tons of money
they need revenues in the door and it's been very challenging to get the revenues despite what you
hear about the massive growth of anthropic that's all well and good but anthropic has under invested
in building out capex and dario has been outspoken about it well i'm starting to run into some token
usage and if you go online you're starting to hear this more and more so mythos is a little scary in
the fact that we might already be at recursive self-improvement i've talked about it here but
this is when the computer is learning on its own, which means all types of things start to enter
closer to AGI. And most of the readout has been that Anthropic has something real. Cause remember
there have been very few releases that come out. If you can't beat what they have already,
then you're not going to release something. Cause that's bad for your stock price. So you're
waiting. So I think there's been this speculation as to what's happened on the source code part.
I've read the venture read article. And this was kind of scary. Like I made a joke in Boston. I
made a joke on the video i just did today i'm like this is kind of like if kentucky fried chicken
released their their secret recipe on like a year into there there'd be no kentucky fried chicken
because there'd be eight billion of them that had the same recipe they have every every model
provider has nuances of efficiencies nuances of the way the model works and a lot of these were
released in the source code which means if they really did have something well now grok has it
and ChatGPT has it, and Google Gemini, and everyone else does.
But here's the other thing.
So do the Chinese.
And the Chinese have been copying all the models.
You know that they took whatever was on there, and it's already been done.
So I just think we're in this point where people have to realize that these hackings
that happen at Merkur, which is a big deal, which I won't spend a lot of time on, but
we've talked about Merkur on here.
These are really big deals, and I think the hackings are going to go up.
But it's the reason why I've said we have another quantum Bitcoin scare.
Guys, we're living in a world where your assets are exposed to the hackings of mythos and all these places already.
Open claw mythos.
This stuff is accelerating so fast.
We just have to get used to the point that these models are so good that the disruption you saw in software, which led to the disruption that was in the financial markets, that is capital structure destruction.
100%.
That is 100.
Listen to Michael Saylor a few times this weekend, guys.
He just had an interview with Natalie Brunel.
Go listen to it.
Two hours, I think.
The reason it's important is because Michael is talking about the capital structure of
the world changing.
He is the only one that I listen to regularly on this topic because he's the one that got
me inspired to look into Bitcoin and understand it.
It's more about the disruption that happens to the capital structure, which he went through
with MicroStrategy from Microsoft.
And he openly talks about how he couldn't compete with these companies.
Bitcoin is a scarcity asset.
Remember, the theme has been long scarcity, short abundance.
That trade has made a lot of money this year for people.
I know it because people still want to see me when I go out on the road.
If it didn't work, they wouldn't want to see me.
And I think we're only in the early stages of it.
And Bitcoin will be part of it, just like oil has been part of it.
And I warned about oil for a year.
It took a little while.
We finally got there.
The Fed's going to be in decision making.
Remember that for all the Bitcoin people.
I think that you're going to be very right by the end of this year.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's it.
I need you to do me a favor, though.
I need you to go into your browser.
Don't use AI, just your little fingers.
You know, put your little fingers on the keyboard and type the following.
Jordy Visser YouTube.
Jordy Visser YouTube.
When you go, you're going to get a link.
That link is going to take you to Jordy Visser's YouTube.
When you go there, there's a big button that says subscribe.
You're going to hit the subscribe button.
And when you do it, close your eyes and say, I'm doing this because Jordy has helped me make money.
Or maybe think more critically.
And it's a big thank you.
In the digital world, you can't send gifts.
You can't send money.
But you can send a thank you and you do it by hitting the subscribe button.
So go to Jordy Visser YouTube, hit subscribe button, give him a little surprise.
You know, then all of a sudden he'll be like, wow, I should keep going on that show because
I keep getting subscribers.
That's a great idea.
Thank you for doing this.
This relationship gets better every week.
By the way, nobody's going to listen to me, so don't get too excited.
All right.
We'll talk to you guys next week.
