The Pomp Podcast - Why Are Bitcoin & AI Stocks CRASHING?! | Jordi Visser

Starting point is 00:00:00 Here's the reality. We are in still the second or third inning of what will be a long build-out. Artificial intelligence is the most important thing to happen to the human race from the basis of making things cost less and solving some of the world's problems that have been with us for a long time. Turning longevity into something that's parabolic. Turning the market into something that's parabolic. Most importantly, allowing democratization of education, democratization of people to have as much information as the people I started at the beginning that say this always ends badly. And this has been the thing. And so what's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. He's an extremely successful macro

Starting point is 00:00:38 hedge fund manager. And now he's here to explain to us what's going on with the AI trade, which names he likes, which ones he doesn't. Is he worried about the big memory shortage? Is the AI trade over or not? What's it mean for your portfolio? We talk about the debasement capitulation and what's going on with Bitcoin, gold, silver. And then, of course, we get into SpaceX and what's going on with Anthropic and Claude and OpenAI and Gemini and Google and many other names. This conversation is going all over the place, but it is ultimately Jordy and I trying to figure out what the heck's going on in the world and what does it mean for his portfolio, my portfolio, and yours. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser.

Starting point is 00:01:13 All right, Jordy, the AI trade seems like it's over. Everything's going down. People are very upset. Should we just pack it up and go home? What exactly is going on here? yeah it was a a freak out week um ending or at least micron is changing the tone um it's very funny spending your time in your life talking to people about a particular trade and uh the people that i've known in the industry a long time like myself so people like me they just know that number one things like this don't end well in their head even though that may not be the case they in their head they know it so they believe that all retail traders and all people that have been riding momentum will eventually get blown up i see the leverage i see all of this stuff

Starting point is 00:02:01 so this week when sk hynix in particular in the korean market was effectively limit down every single like overnight podcast everything in x was it's here this is going to be a crash you're going to watch what happens once micron's done everything will go down and because i have a thematic portfolio with a hundred names, a hundred names is a lot of AI names. It crosses from chemicals to industrials, to, um, drug companies to, uh, you know, semiconductor and a whole bunch more. So it was down big on one day and everyone was freaking out and people reached out. So on Tuesday I did a video and I basically just said to people, here's the reality. we are in still the second or third inning of what will be a long build out and i'm going to

Starting point is 00:02:52 say it to everyone who listens to us every week artificial intelligence is the most important thing to happen to the human race from the basis of making things cost less and solving some of the world's problems that have been with us for a long time turning longevity into something that's parabolic turning the market into something that's parabolic most importantly allowing democratization of education, democratization of people to have as much information as the people I started at the beginning that say this always ends badly. And this has been the thing. And so Micron comes out.

Starting point is 00:03:26 Obviously, the AI trade is not over. I will do a lot on the video this weekend to just show the quotes. They've got long-term commitments from so many different people now. Their supply and demand will be out of balance until 2028. That doesn't mean that's definitely going to happen. But the reality is the AI portfolio and the way that things moved, I'm going to say it again and again, the world changed in October of last year, November of last year, when Opus 4.5 came out, we've gone from 4.5 to 4.6 and 4.7 to 4.8 to Mythos to Fable 5 to

Starting point is 00:04:01 the government basically taking control of it. And GPT 5.5 is out. The AI trade is doing excellent. And the second half of the year where you will continue to see strength. So there are, I'm going to call it closing the gap. There are two things that I've heard this past week that I need to come and talk to you about. You got to tell me whether these make sense or not. The first one, let's start with is Micron. So my understanding is that Micron's last quarter that they just reported, they did more in revenue than NVIDIA did when NVIDIA was

Starting point is 00:04:32 a $4 billion company. $4 trillion. $4 trillion company. Sorry, the numbers are getting so big here, but what's the difference? A $4 trillion company. Today, Micron is not a $4 trillion company. And so is it as simple as just like that gap closes and Micron is going to be a $4 trillion company? If it were only that easy, but I will say this, it will be very surprising if they don't get up to $2 trillion over the course of the next year. Here's the thing about it. And again, I love doing these weekly videos because there are certain things that just stand out. The one I did on, on Tuesday was meant to go through this concept that I'm really trying to do to help people, which is there's noise, which is, this is a bubble. So because the agentic world started,

Starting point is 00:05:21 the amount of memory that was needed was far different than any time in history. And it was the gateway. So it was literally, and I, and I, I can, the only analogy I can use is we have a certain amount of food on the planet. We've always heard that we could run out of it, that prices could go up. You know what would cause it to really be in trouble and make the prices go up dramatically? Is if all of a sudden there was an extra 4 billion people on the planet tomorrow. That's what happened with memory. The amount of memory that is needed because of AI agents, which need to think about the past and this and go through it and connect, changed overnight. And we have another five to 10 years of this because humanoids need even more

Starting point is 00:06:03 autonomous vehicles need even more. That is, and they talked about this. Micron talked about it on the earnings call. You can't have something without coming up with the correct analogy. So I just want everyone to hear it. If 4 billion people entered the planet today and we went up by 50%, the amount of people, we wouldn't have enough food. You prices would go up dramatically. So inflation doesn't always come from speculation and from money and all this stuff. Sometimes it comes from, oh, my God, we have to feed all of this four billion people. And in the case of digital agents, the food I've said it before and before, it's compute and compute is chips and energy. So when you look at these kind of limiting factors, one thing that you said to me is that maybe the pace we're growing, even though it feels like we've got a limitation to growth, maybe the right pace to be growing.

Starting point is 00:06:52 What do you mean by that? So, and this is what I wanted to make sure people realize from the mid-cycle slowdown, because when you say something like mid-cycle slowdown, everyone's like, should I get out? And the answer is no, you should just expect it to not be as easy. Micron's not going to be growing their earnings at the pace they did from the fourth quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year. When you look at the numbers and when I show you the income numbers, they are massive to change.

Starting point is 00:07:19 They did more in the first two quarters of this year than I think the last 10 years combined. So is that going to continue? No, it's not. Like, will they grow? Yeah. But if you're only growing at 50% from 400%, that's the second derivative kicking in. You're slowing down. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:07:38 So it's not a down trade. It's just a slowdown. So I think this has mainly been because of price increases and because there's a bottleneck. they are spending money on CapEx to produce more. They just can't make enough anymore to satisfy all the demand that's there. So demand went up too fast. A lot of this is for future use. And so are we going to need all of them? No. But like I said, humanoids are coming and there's other things coming. So if people doubt it, they're making a huge mistake. In no way, shape or form is Micron a short. For traders who want to make it go from 1300 to 1100, be my guest. I got out

Starting point is 00:08:14 way too early. So you're talking to someone who didn't expect the stock to just continue to go like this. But part of the reason I got out is because Marvell, which is another memory play in a different way that benefits from the fact that memory shortage is there. I like that. So the pace thing you're mentioning and what I say to people, Taiwan semi is preventing us from growing too fast. If we had enough memory right now, I think the capabilities would be going so fast that it would leave a lot of workers in the dust. So sometimes government's job is not to stop things from happening,

Starting point is 00:08:46 it's to slow things. Sometimes the bottlenecks of the physical world actually end up being something good because it keeps things in check. And I just want to remind people for all the things we're talking about in AI, the S&P 500 as of when I came in here with you is up less than 8% in the first half of the year.

Starting point is 00:09:03 That number might sound okay, that is not a big number for all of this bubble talk and enthusiasm. the hyperscalers are horrible. Like this month, you've got record falls. I think Microsoft is having its worst month since 2008. The Nikkei is up 48%. The Kospi is up over 100%. Taiwan is up over 50%. So the US is actually not benefiting as much. And this is this benchmark arbitrage thing that I talked about, which is the receivers are getting most of the money. Well, the problem is in Taiwan and in Korea, the receivers are a higher weight in the index.

Starting point is 00:09:41 Same thing in Japan. In the U.S., the hyperscalers are the higher weight. That's why the index is having a hard time. That's why we do this show to talk about the things that are going. The slowing of the pace is actually a good thing because I think too fast would be worse for the worker world. The other close of the gap is Intel and TSMC. Yeah, this is an interesting story.

Starting point is 00:10:04 And again, we've reached a point where some people have to listen to, I think Scott Besson had a speech at the, was it at the New York Athletic Economic Club? It's a really important speech for people to go read or just go through the transcript or upload it into an LLM. And the reason is because he talks about the strategic nature of AI. He talks about needing to have the industrial capacity, that we've been in this place where we've been over-consuming for a long period of time, and now we need to be producing what we need, and we cannot be dependent on the supply chains of the world. Now, we learned this through the tariffs last year. One of the good things that the tariffs did last year, for everyone who just wants to

Starting point is 00:10:49 be political, is we learned that we're a little bit screwed on the infrastructure side of AI. We don't have the rare earths we need. There's a lot of things that we don't have everything of, and we need to build that capacity, which is why Intel fits in well with Taiwan Semi, because if you would have listened to the conversation and when the government made a strategic investment into Intel, they were basically saying, okay, we have to support this company because we need this. we need to invest in it. We need to have the CPUs. We can't have the foundry, the biggest, one of the biggest foundries in the world, one of the three biggest in the U S and not be running at full throttle. We need a tariff fab. We need all of this. So Besson really talked about the

Starting point is 00:11:30 fact that this is a strategic need. Now in Micron's earnings call, the CEO specifically said memory is a strategic asset. So whatever people's view is of AI, they think it's a bubble. The governments of the world are in a massive race for military dominance, for mythos versus deep seek. Deep seek just had a funding round. Only one investor got voting rights. That would be the Chinese government. So we're just in this thing of AI is a military asset and they're in they're going through it. And you want to invest in the things that are going to build the AI, maybe not as so much as the people that are going to monetize the models. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. We all know the D-Gen dilemma. You need cash to live

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Starting point is 00:13:01 like the bitcoin market gets so if you want to stop selling your future to pay for your present check my link in the show notes or go to figuremarkets.co slash pomp should the government just print trillion dollars and go hire all of the top ai uh scientists and just say sit here and beat the private companies i honestly don't think anyone can catch up to what's going on I think this has become something, um, Google had two very senior people leave this week. I don't know if I said it with you or if I said it on, on, on my, my YouTube, but I made a comment that a lot of people reached out on and I said, Google's not a player in this anymore for me.

Starting point is 00:13:50 Um, two months ago, yeah, two months ago, I would say Claude was about 35% of my usage. ChatGPT was probably about 25 and then Google was probably about 20 and then Grok would be another one and Perplexity would be another. What has happened now is that ChatGPT and Claude are effectively 90% of my usage. The other three have become less important to me. Why? Because Gemini's model is nowhere near as good as ChatGPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8, plain and simple.

Starting point is 00:14:34 They haven't released a new thing in a long time. They're behind. They're losing quality people. And I think part of the reason is because they have one disruption that those two companies don't have. Actually, they have many. First of all, Google has about 200,000 employees.

Starting point is 00:14:49 They're $3 trillion-ish. Anthropic is, what, $1.5 trillion in the private market. They have less than 5,000 employees. So if you're a person who cares about working with the best models, if you care about working on the best things, you've got that. Google has to work on Google Cloud. They have to make sure that Workspace is working and all these other things. So they actually are distracted to some degree because they have to keep the revenue focused on these other products and anthropic and open AI are just trying to get enterprises to adopt.

Starting point is 00:15:25 So I think we've reached a point that because of the belief of recursive self-improvement, that if you are number three, which is where Gemini is, they're number three, number three with open source up with the other two is a very dangerous position. So I would never say go out and short Google for it to go down because they're cash rich. They're in everyone's life and they're not going anywhere. But there seem to be entering into the same problem or a different variety that Meta, Microsoft, and even Amazon have been in for at least a while, which is these companies have not done well. Their multiples were high. They're over-owned by everyone.

Starting point is 00:16:02 And they've kind of fallen into an NVIDIA thing where NVIDIA is going through multiple compression. Google is too. So Gemini is just not there for me. and nano banana was the main reason and i didn't even put this into context did you use nano banana i did okay and part of it was because of the cool name and then part of it was so for me nano banana obviously the image generation was supposed to be like its you know best feature or whatever um i think out of habit i will still go sometimes to uh to gemini and use uh for image generation

Starting point is 00:16:30 but what i find is that um chad gbt has become far better you know but it is at least in my mind It's a, it's a jump ball now, 50, 50, whether I go to Gemini or ChachiBT, and I don't think I have a great heuristic. So it's like Gemini definitely lost the like pole position on image generation for me. And so now they share it with ChachiBT. So I I've said this before. Um, Gemini is very medicinal to me. It's literally like medicine. It's very academic. I didn't like school. So I never really liked going to Gemini. I don't like the view, the way it feels. I use it as my fact checker. I used to use it for nano banana as well. And I used to rave about nano banana, but then when GPT 5.5 came out, that all changed. And I find the images are faster and I find they're better in using them there. And so I, I don't know where Gemini is going to fit in, but if they don't get another model out soon, I would not be surprised to see more defections.

Starting point is 00:17:28 And by the way, these were not minor people that left Google. Some of this is about science as well. And I think Demis Hassabis, Nobel Prize winner, he's not Google. He's DeepMind. These were DeepMind people. Like, it's a little bit worrisome to me that people are leaving, and I'm sure they got paid a billion dollars to go to Anthropic. These guys have the money, they have the growth, they have the appeal at this point. And this is what happens when you're number three and there's open source models that

Starting point is 00:17:58 are have better models than you do. I would love to know how these top people are getting recruited right now. Is it like super Russian spy, like see him at a coffee shop, slip him a note? Or is it like just send him a LinkedIn request? I mean, you know what I mean? Because it's not like, hey, we're trying to recruit a marketing associate, right? I mean, we're talking about in some cases, this is a billion dollar compensation plan. And so we heard, you know, Zuck was personally reaching out to people or whatever.

Starting point is 00:18:24 Okay. But like, is Anthropic, like what's the game here? It would be fascinating to understand. And I'm sure at some point we will, especially if, so I don't want people to think, I don't know how OpenAI and Anthropic are going to be able to monetize everything. Like I'm still very worried about the revenue situation relative to the CapEx. I think this is very challenging as a user in thinking about how this is going to work out for everyone. So I'm not so sure that the revenue growth for these companies is going to be as easy as what the charts suggest. I know everything's parabolic right now. I know the reasons why everyone jumped in.

Starting point is 00:19:10 I know the token maxing helped them. But now I think everyone is looking at this going, how do we reduce the cost? And I think everyone's going to figure out a way to reduce the cost quickly. And so there might be, I called this a CapEx air pocket. I still believe for the next three to six months, even with the micron news, it doesn't change the fact that the rate of change and the expectations on the positioning is going to go through a little bit of a shakeout for a while. there was a article written about Anthropic this past week, and I'm just going to read you a couple

Starting point is 00:19:41 of data points from it. Anthropic stickiness shows in three data points. It's got a net dollar retention of over 500%, nine of the Fortune 10 are customers, and a sales cycle can sign two eight-figure USD contracts in a single meeting. On valuation, the 2026 Series G was a $380 billion post-money. But then if you fast forward to the Series H, which was three months later, they went from $380 billion to $965 billion post-money valuation.

Starting point is 00:20:19 So, you know, approximately a 3X. But here was the kicker. Anthropic reportedly has turned cashflow positive with a free cashflow margin of 15 to 20% and a gross margin of 60 to 70%. Now, I don't know if that's true or not, but if Anthropic is throwing off 15% free cash flow, growing at the pace that they are reportedly growing, at the size, God's doing, you know, $10, $20 billion of free cash flow already. Like, they started what, four years ago, five years ago? Yep.

Starting point is 00:20:56 To do that, I only know of one company in the world who's ever done this before, and that's Tether. But Tether isn't growing that much, right? Because they're growing, but it's just not at this rate like this. So you look at this and you say, is Anthropic undervalued? Based on the last six months, you can put whatever valuation you want. This is different than SpaceX. This is actually something where you can say. And I want to have-

Starting point is 00:21:24 Is that shots fired? Again, I'm not a value investor. and I'm not here to, to go through it. But again, when, when, when I get asked the question and go, what do you think of SpaceX? And I give an answer, you don't believe, you don't believe the Tama space. And I go, okay, I just, I don't, I don't understand, you know, in my head, as much as I'm, I'm a, uh, a futurist and I think about all the world, I don't understand how the money in the future fits into a world with Mars and the moon. So at some point, there's a cutoff for me

Starting point is 00:22:02 where I'm not really sure what that means. And so in a public company, I just don't get it. With Anthropic- That might be the point, Jordy. Yeah, and trust me, that's why I stick with the, right now with the physical hardware sites. Well, Anthropic though, if you look at it, let's just say it's doing 20 billion.

Starting point is 00:22:18 I don't like to do public math, but that's like 50 times, you know, free cashflow. Yep. at the pace at which they're growing, they're adding, you know, they're growing 25, 30% month over month. Like, that doesn't seem crazy to me at all. Actually, it feels like maybe this thing

Starting point is 00:22:34 should be like $2 trillion. But again, if you keep extrapolating things into the future on this, you run into a problem as you get into AGI and you get into RSI. And that's the part, like, I don't know what it all means when you get to that point.

Starting point is 00:22:46 I just think people have to keep that in mind. Like, taking the world of the past and saying, well, we're going to grow revenues. OK, great. Where's it coming from? And I can make the argument as to where it's coming from. And I know that for me as a power user, I pay 200 a month. I'm not getting charged for the tokens. There's no way they're profitable on you. No, there is no way they're profitable on me. And I know that I'm not using the API and I'm not and I'm avoiding OpenClaw for a lot of the work that I would need to do on. And I'm just using it in terms of paying the $200. Do you get throttled while you're using it on the 200? not i i don't think i don't think i'm that like the velocity isn't there yeah to throttle you

Starting point is 00:23:29 i'm using it all day long but it really is i'm i'm doing a lot of brainstorming and i'm filtering things in my head before i go in there and i'm trying to get answers quickly and i work through through things if people have gotten to know me you know i can go a mile a minute speaking and i can pull things out of my head that have been sitting there for weeks i can go back 10 years I can remember something. I can do this with people very quickly. But with an LLM, it's very focused. It's like, I have this thought.

Starting point is 00:23:56 Let's go through it. It gives me an answer. I go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. But if the questions are good and you're good at saying, don't give me a long-winded answer, you actually cut down on your token usage dramatically. Now, when I'm building stuff and I'm going through it, that takes more time. That's a lot more code. But I think I'm succinct in what I want.

Starting point is 00:24:19 And I think I've already done the prep work on my own. So I haven't got into the point of loops. And this is what I wanted to say to you. And this is the part where I think the most important thing that's happening right now is this concept of loops. And this is where- It's like agent loops or agentic loops. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:24:36 So there's been a huge gap between the CEOs of companies loving AI and paying Anthropic lots of money, and then the employees using it. There's been a huge gap. So the surveys all say the same, like CEOs all love it and say it's going to change their business. Employees aren't so excited. Now, I'm not sure it's just because it's going to take their jobs. I actually think they don't know how to use it.

Starting point is 00:25:04 Now, if you have 100 employees in a department and two of them are power users, meaning they love it and they're figuring ways to do it. So people understand what loops are. the agents are figuring stuff out on their own but they do need the human context and they need to learn everything going on in the business so if you're in a marketing area of of coca-cola and there's a hundred employees and two of them are using claude in a really really good way and the agentic loops are being used by those two people and the other 98 are doing something similar then these people are training their replacements at this point that's the thing that

Starting point is 00:25:43 we're entering into this dangerous point. And this is where the job losses could come much faster. And that's where Anthropic's revenue gains to me are going to have to come from. The total compensation and everything that happens in this country is about $20 trillion a year. If you can get rid of a bunch of employees, and right now, so people remember, we are not creating jobs. So yes, the last two months we created a couple hundred thousand or 300,000. Most of them were in the healthcare side. But over the course of the last year, there's almost been no job creation. The reason that matters is because in the history of this market, the way that we got more nominal GDP was you get more employees every single year. And then in recessions, you don't

Starting point is 00:26:22 hire people, you fire them and it goes down. We are growing rapidly without hiring people. So that means the profits are going into the companies because they're actually not firing people at this point. They're just not hiring them. If they get to the point that the loops are there, and this is why people need to pay attention. The agentic loops are not only important for the businesses, but they start to become important for the commerce side because it means people are learning how you're doing stuff on your computer. And then as a consumer, Alexa and Siri and all of those things that we haven't seen work yet, they're going to start to work as part of the next thing, which is the connection of agentic loops with agentic commerce.

Starting point is 00:26:58 Did you see the Claude tags? Yes. I was listening to a bunch of people talking about a bunch of podcasts. I feel like that's going to end up being right along with this, right? Of, you know if you have a company and you have people who work remotely you do not talk to them on the phone in person maybe even in meetings a lot it's literally slack yeah there are certain people who work at some of our companies who i communicate with 99 through slack and maybe once a month or something you know we do something when i'm a phone or video or i'm in a meeting and they're there, you know, virtually whatever, but what's the difference, whether it's a human

Starting point is 00:27:39 or it's AI on the other end, if you're talking in Slack and it's doing like that to me, this is one of these moments where I'm like, I'm going to, I just saw more of the future than I knew two weeks ago. And it feels pretty disruptive. Andre Carpathy said, this is way bigger than you think it is. And I agree. Now, again, I just mentioned loops. You're talking about tags. The main thing people have to understand is all of this changed in November of last year. So when you get to a point where the computers are actually solving stuff, what just happened with OpenAI and Jalapeno, an AI chip.

Starting point is 00:28:21 So I've mentioned this before, but we solved the vaccine issue during COVID when a vaccine would normally take four years to go from, okay, how do we go? It might take more. And it was done. And we had the blueprint before a single person died in the United States of America. It's an amazing thing to think that AI was able to take the blueprint and then create the specs of a vaccine. And then it had to go through the process, which took another nine months, which was

Starting point is 00:28:49 fast-tracked. So now you go forward, the jalapeno AI chip where OpenAI worked with Broadcom, which is a disruptive thing for NVIDIA, well, that took nine months to go from idea, design, and AI was a major part of this. So again, when people start thinking about where we are, that's why I always say the world changed in November of last year. There wasn't a chat GPT moment for most of you, but for people that were power users, they felt it. And so when Andrej Karpathy, he was the one that basically said the world changed in November, and that was a month after he was on a faint, very big podcast saying, I don't see any agentic stuff for another decade. You have to think about how wrong he was, how fast it's going. And as I said last week, Leopold wrote this paper. This is happening faster than even he predicted. And I think that's the issue is that people have to just accept that loops, tags, all of this stuff, those are all getting to the point where you don't need as many employees. And regulation is rapidly running to keep up here. What is the impact of that going to be? I mean, for people who don't like change, it'll slow things down. We're obviously seeing election results, which are indicative of a continuation from what the voters voted for in New York City.

Starting point is 00:30:11 You're getting more and more of this story. You're getting more and more empowerment when you're seeing Bernie Sanders rise again into some form of this and scare both the Republican Party, but also a major part of the Democratic Party. Guy has nine lives, man. Yeah, it's amazing. I mean, the water in Vermont and Maine is very good. So you're getting lots of lots of spring water, keep you young. It won't stop artificial intelligence. I think David Friedberg on the All In podcast, gave a great commentary on this a week and a half ago. And he basically said, it's like the internet, you can't stop it. And we haven't even built the data centers yet. And we're talking about the agentic world accelerating. We need the data centers for longevity and for

Starting point is 00:31:01 all kinds of things, but we don't know how many we need. We actually don't know because the progress is going so fast. So as much as I think the government will delay things, they'll create issues on things. They might make it more challenging. They might tax things. I mean, in Korea, we got another movement towards this unrealized capital gains tax. For everyone out there who's forgotten about crypto and confiscation and a lot of movements on the distribution wealth, whether it's in the Netherlands, whether it's in Switzerland, whether it's in California, yeah you can go through places i mean the rise of socialism because of the distribution of wealth is there and i think ai only makes the situation worse and when i mention tags and loops to bring

Starting point is 00:31:49 up what you said i don't need tags because i don't have any employees so i'm actually working with my employee every single day on the brainstorming side of how to build things out i want people to understand the same thing happens for loops meaning i will start doing loops because i'll take my process the workflow that i do and have the agents run and improve on it so i'm going to do something this weekend and show people like this is a process i've shown you on how i go from a transcript to a thematic portfolio that process is five different parts an agent loop can do that and go through it and then check for new information give me a new one go through it check it. Oh, a new transcript came out. Is this fit the theme? Should we change names? Like it just

Starting point is 00:32:35 continues it. So it's like an endless loop of just getting better. Those are the things that impact workers. Those are the things that allow companies with lots of employees to figure out how to get rid of them. While entrepreneurs, I think, are benefiting faster and Stripe has highlighted that. But I really believe that entrepreneurs have a huge advantage in this world. or spend your crypto then listen up because uphold does all of that in one single unified platform you can access 300 plus crypto and fiat currencies with an interface that works for you whether you're a beginner or an expert uphold also features any to any swaps where you can swap crypto to fiat fiat to metals and tokens to tokens directly in the app if you prefer self-custody

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Starting point is 00:35:10 change. And Stripe's a very important company in the United States of America. It's not only just a big private company, but the future of finance is dependent on what Stripe is doing. And now you of all the banks and crypto, for everyone who listens to you, Stripe is a really important player in the crypto world. My entire business is on Stripe. It's a great thing. I mean, taxation in other countries and everything along those lines, it just makes running the business much easier. And on the Stripe sessions, if you just watch the keynote, first of all, you see these charts and you see these numbers going parabolic. But this is all about AI. So a lot of what they talked about is in AI, if you want to build an app now, it's easy. You go do it in

Starting point is 00:35:56 code. So we see how many apps are being built, but to take an app that does something and then turn it into money where you're getting the money. So it becomes a business. Well, then you need a CFO. You need an, well, Stripe projects allows you to go from this to that. And they showed a demo of how you can, Hey, you built your app. That's great. Now let's turn it into where you make money. So now it's not just the coding on one end, it's the coding from actually being in the place where you can collect the money and go through it. The last thing is for the agents to talk to each other and to start commerce. And they talked about the growth in that. The reason that's important is because that is the network effects for crypto. So you'll start to see benefits coming

Starting point is 00:36:37 through the crypto world as the volumes pick up. That's what we need. We need volume. We need activity. And they talked a lot about it. And I just want to make sure people realize we can't actually get to that point where the network effects take off and the agents are doing commerce until the first two stages happen. You needed the coding to get to a level that it could actually replace humans. We did that. And so people understand the importance of coding. There would be no GDP in the world if we couldn't communicate with each other. Communication for human beings allows business to actually happen. We talk about things, you sell things, you do that, you explain it the language of digital employees is code so the code allows them to talk with each

Starting point is 00:37:18 other and go through it so we needed the code we needed them to be able to code on their own once we hit that point then they can start building not just the apps they can start building the the financial part and then you those guardrails are there and then the agents start doing stuff with each other and on there they talked about the fact that certainly by 2030 but even sooner more transactions will be happening via agents than humans and when we get to that point the only thing that works to deal with the transactions is not physical money it's stable coins it is actually on the guardrails and so the stripe thing is a very important kind of gateway between the prior world and the future world and i think for people in crypto who are depressed

Starting point is 00:38:00 because of the bear market the bear market continues um the ai agents are the critical point of what Stripe said is the commerce isn't happening yet, but we're getting there pretty soon. It's fascinating to kind of see how fast this is all going. One of the narratives that's changed significantly is the debasement trade. Bitcoin, gold, silver, everything's selling off. I think you've called this the debasement capitulation. They're still debasing the currency. Yes. So what's going on? Why is Bitcoin, gold, and silver all selling off? I think last year, not just last year, but the last two years, there were two, let's say, bubbles. And when I say bubbles, things that both retail and institutions agreed on.

Starting point is 00:38:49 So AI, no. Retail loves AI institutions for the most part. The older you are, the more you think it's a bubble. Nobody who thinks AI is a bubble thought gold was a bubble. Gold was the way bears got to come out and go, I'm bullish on something. It's just gold. They're also all bearish on bonds. Nobody owns bonds.

Starting point is 00:39:09 Why would you own bonds? Like inflation's on the higher side. So the debasement trade is not just long gold, long silver, long Bitcoin. And yes, Bitcoin was part of it until October of last year. Bitcoin was outperforming the stock market. Bitcoin was outperforming bonds significantly. So gold, silver, and Bitcoin get lumped in. It's amazing how Bitcoin gets lumped into software.

Starting point is 00:39:32 We've got a bear market in that. It gets put in with the debasement trade. Now, the debasement trade's washing out. You've got gold and silver going down because Kevin Warsh came out and said, well, I think I'm going to be more hawkish. And everyone said, that's it. Dollar rallies. Everything's good.

Starting point is 00:39:48 And I'm like, we still have a deficit. We still have massive debt. Nothing is going to change because he speaks a certain language. And we've got a lot of people. I mean, Warren Pye's put out a great chart this week. I was going to send it to you, which just showed the part of the economy that is now the information and computer side versus residential investment. Residential investment is not moving, which means house prices are not moving, which is

Starting point is 00:40:16 where the bulk of the Americans would like to see this bull market. AI going up does not benefit everyone the same way. So I think the debasement trade has reached a point where because bond yields or bonds that just stay stable, they don't do anything. This was really people had reduced in their wealth management portfolio. I think some pension funds had done this. We had a scenario that we were overweight, this debasement trade, underweight bonds. And when the trade starts doing poorly and it coincides with us running into the end

Starting point is 00:40:49 of a quarter, and everyone should remember this. Bitcoin is now an asset that people invest in. It's part of the asset allocation process. People make decisions at the end of a quarter, and you tend to get a lot of people that are bailing out. You also have people shorting the hell out of the thing, because I'm reading more Michael Saylor stuff, and that micro strategy is going to blow up, and they're going to have to sell. So we really have the mob is not involved, meaning retail is not involved.

Starting point is 00:41:13 It's a bear market. You have institutions that hate Bitcoin. You have the debasement trade going down. When you still have the software names like Adobe and Salesforce not bouncing at all, Bitcoin is just lumped in with a bunch of bad stuff right now. When will it recover? Again, for me, this is a very simple thing. And I say simple because it's what I do believe in terms of the end game for AI.

Starting point is 00:41:40 AI agents and the network effects happening and the amount of volumes that will be going on, the economy will change forever. There are two things that will happen. And I've mentioned this on here at least a few times when Caitlin Long wrote a piece about the velocity of money changing. Now, this is a TradFi banker who understands GDP. And we both respect Caitlin a lot. She knows that world really well. And so do I. Velocity of money has been a dead thing. And the reason it's been dead is because the world's assets have gone up so much. So when you go through the whole what Bitcoin represents, it represents the fact that the fiat assets have gone up so much, the distribution of wealth has gotten worse and it makes people angry and the government just keeps solving this problem. They're not going to need to do that anymore. And the reason they won't need to do that is a combination of demographics. So there is 700 plus trillion dollars of wealth on the planet. It's in assets. Two thirds of those assets are in dormant assets. It's money.

Starting point is 00:42:45 A house is money. If you can get cash for it, you can go spend it. It's money. It's like what SpaceX was. SpaceX was a dormant asset. It was a private thing. And over the course of the next few months, a lot of people are going to be millionaires and actually can go cash in their money.

Starting point is 00:43:01 You'll have billionaires that can go cash in their money. then they can turn around and go spend that money. They can go buy houses. They can do whatever they want. But it was a dormant asset that you'd have to go through hurdles to go borrow against. With tokenization and with AI agents transacting a lot, the velocity of money is going to increase significantly. And when the velocity of money goes through,

Starting point is 00:43:20 people have to realize that GDP at the end of the day is a total sum of transactions. And transactions are going to be happening faster. And the pieces of the pie that make up public companies are middlemen. They're taking taxes on all of this stuff. And so there'll be less taxes in terms of the friction that goes on. And every year it'll get less and less. So I've always believed that the third wave of crypto, which in Elliott Wave terms means the most explosive one, would happen when the agents came.

Starting point is 00:43:49 And I just want to leave people with one other part of Elliott Wave, if I'm right about that. And I believe AI is the durable part. So for those of you who are bearish AI, where Bitcoin is gone to me is if AI collapses, which to me is not going to happen. AI is a real thing. It's going to keep moving forward. AI agents are a real thing and we'll just keep making progress.

Starting point is 00:44:08 As that goes, for the end of the second wave, you need people believing that we're going back to the depths. Now, the depths of FTX and all of that, this is not that. There are real people buying real businesses at dirt cheap prices right now. And I know some of the same people you do

Starting point is 00:44:26 that are involved in this. These are really good people that have built businesses before that see value in this because they see the what the nfts will be be as a positive thing the need for them why the blockchain is necessary in a world of deep fakes all of these thematic things that i've written about in my sub stack for 18 months they're still in play so i think people just need to remember things change very quickly Micron was $60 when you and I

Starting point is 00:44:53 started this it's now $1,200 and change things can change very quickly with AI it's a big move alright well thank you very much Jordy anyone who needs something to do on Sunday morning listen this guy's got

Starting point is 00:45:09 a banger coming out I'm telling you I know some of the little details of this video you need to go and watch it tomorrow morning all you do is just go Jordy Visser on youtube go watch of course if you're going to watch the video you might as well you know help them out hit the subscribe button maybe put a little like little thumbs up on youtube neil the ceo of youtube he likes that he says oh jordy's popular let me give him a little boost on uh this video so make sure you subscribe to uh to jordy's youtube channel give him a like on the video and

Starting point is 00:45:35 we'll do this again i'll see you next week from maine

The Pomp Podcast - Why Are Bitcoin & AI Stocks CRASHING?! | Jordi Visser

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