The Pomp Podcast - Why Bitcoin Could Hit All-Time Highs in 2026 | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: March 28, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss rising inflation, higher oil prices, and why he believes markets are entering a new regime driven by supply shocks and geopolitical risk. We also explore asset rotation into commodities, risks in private credit, and bitcoin’s growing role as liquidity and capital flows shift globally.======================Summ supports TurboTax and makes it easy to track your cost basis across 3,500 exchange, wallet and crypto integrations -- with support for DeFi, NFTs, staking and airdrops. Generate accurate IRS-ready reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. Summ is an official tax partner of MetaMask and Coinbase. Use code POMP20 for 20% off your first year at Summ: https://summ.com/us?via=pomp&promo=POMP20======================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.======================0:00 - Intro0:56 - Has the market officially entered a new regime?3:58 - Global shortages & why inflation is rising again11:25 - Where smart money is moving right now16:09 - Could inflation spike back above expectations?21:31 - Why stocks struggle in high inflation environments25:31 - Will markets recover or stay flat this year?27:30 - Why bitcoin could lead the next cycle33:29 - Why most altcoins won’t outperform bitcoin37:55 - How AI is disrupting markets & software41:15 - Why bitcoin is the ultimate asset in this shift

I want to be invested in something that can compound at 50% a year, and I think Bitcoin will do it. So all-time highs for Bitcoin this year, mainly because inflation is here, liquidity is needed, and I don't see a regime shift going back the other direction. I actually think we officially left the glory days of QE and inflation, and we're in a world where the government can't print money, debt's high, and the rotation of the assets is going to start chasing the one that doesn't have a story. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we are going to talk about why the market has finally been beaten to submission, what's going to happen with inflation, why he

thinks it's going much higher, what that means for the stock returns in your portfolio, and you better get very ready for that conversation. We're going to talk about Bitcoin, what's going on with the Iran war, and how Jordy is seeing asset rotation happening in people's portfolio, what returns are going to look like over the next decade or so, and frankly, what should you be doing in your portfolio? Jordy's here to break it all down for us this week. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, market submission. You think that the market is now been put into submission. They're waving the white flag and saying, okay, no mas. What does that mean? For the last three weeks, I think there was hope that this was going to be a repeat of

last year. Meaning tariffs got levied and there was a mini panic, stock sold off, Trump and the administration stepped in with a bunch of words and eventually the market recovered and zoomed higher so let's use uh let's use something people are all very familiar with let's assume you get the stomach bug you throw up all night but then the next day it's over well that was liberation day that was the tariffs this too shall pass it was just gone and then you move on then there's the other one which is just a cold that you can't get rid of and three weeks later it's still there Submission is coming to the reality that you don't know when this is going to end, but you know something has changed.

And for me, I live in a world, and the market does too, it doesn't get recognized this way. And for people that are watching that are just at home investors, when you hear the word regime shift, that is a structural change in a complex system. The market is a complex system. It involves credit. It involves interest rates. It involves inflation. It involves economic growth, stagflation, productivity, whatever you want.

I think for the first time, institutions in this last week have finally come to the conclusion, and maybe it's because I've been negative now for a period of time and just saying, I think this is going to be a very challenging year. And in particular, I think it's going to be a very difficult year for covariance matrix, the relationships that have existed for a long time between bonds and stocks, bonds and inflation, inflation and oil and all these different things. Well, we're at that point now where the damage is going on. And at some point, and I wrote a paper on this for 22V, that when in the first Rocky, you know, he's the underdog, but then he knocks out Apollo Creed in the first

round. He didn't win the fight, but that said that it was going to be a long fight. And I think that's what submission is. I think this was the week that people realized that this isn't going away like it did last year in two parts. One is, again, the market's not thrown up. It's just kind of going through this deleveraging phase where everyone's raising cash, but they're getting rid of their market neutral positions and they're gradually taking things down. And two, this isn't going away quickly in terms of oil prices. This will be the fourth week in a row where we're closing above $90 and everyone's done with taco. Everyone's had enough of, they know the drill. Friday, I threatened to do X.

Monday comes before the open. You know what? We're going to extend it for five days. We're going to extend it for two weeks. I think people now are focused on the probabilities of boots on the ground and the probabilities of when is the straight going to open. And none of those at this point are looking like good outcomes. Based on prediction markets, boots on the ground, 70% odds by the end of April, give

or take. Yep. The straight being open, 30% odds by the end of April. What do those two numbers tell you? Well, the straight is the realization from people that they've now done their homework and they realize that even if magically it was open, it's still going to take a long time to get the back to where it was, where it considered to be truly open. It just means that the shortages that we're starting to see around the world, they're going to be here. And these are real shortages.

This is COVID-like problems. And I think this is the scarier thing to me is most people in the US, because they don't feel it and they don't see it, I mean, they're out of diesel and gas in places like Australia and places like New Zealand. Now, not completely, but there's websites that show how many days left of inventory they have. When China put up the ban on exports of refined products, this was weeks ago. That was a warning sign and everyone inside the energy market knew that, oh my gosh, I mean, the Chinese have their own intel and they're saying we're not exporting anything anymore. We're hunkering

down to take care of our own country. Plastic, polyethylene through the roof hasn't come back down. Jet fuel prices, massive. You're starting to see airlines raise prices. In the US, they're only talking 20 percent in asia cathay pacific last night 37 percent like you're the inflation thing is real because the shortages are going to take some time to get through and it isn't just the straight there was a lot of damage done to the infrastructure particularly things that like i mentioned last week with vaslavon uh in qatar this has implications for lng but it also has implications for helium and so helium there's enough inventory for semiconductors in asia but that's starting to get more alarming. And you're starting to get examples of something Jeff Curry

said on all of his interviews, which is when countries start worrying about their own situation, and this is what happened during COVID with the masks, they start hoarding things. They start building inventory because even if the straight were to open, what's to say there won't be a drone that hits a tank of all of a sudden things, a tanker, if something goes backwards. And we've learned now that the straight shuts down. If one thing happens, nobody's going through there if all of a sudden hostilities start to increase again. So I think there's a very, very difficult situation that the market's coming to terms with that this is more structural than they thought. You know what I was talking to a friend about this week? Remember when off of

Somalia, maybe even like the Horn of Africa, there was all the pirate issues and like Maersk and all these companies were reporting saying, basically the pirate threat is real. It was very simple. They basically hired private military contractors, they put them on these ships, and they said, if a pirate comes near, shoot them. And we're going to defend our ships, but we're going to keep our ships moving. You can't do that with a mine in the ocean or a drone overhead, right? So it is a different thing. Now, when this all kicked off, my thought process was the deflationary force that is structural, that is swallowing the US economy is going to overwhelm any terms of short term inflationary pressure from higher oil prices. Because I thought it's gonna be a two week thing. We're gonna go bomb a bunch, right? Venezuela was quick. The first Iran bombing was very quick. Two weeks were out. i think to your point about the market submission i'm sitting back in the recliner chair now saying wait a minute saying gonna obviously it's not gonna be two weeks could it be six months or a year like how long is this going to go on for now i don't think it will be a six month 12 month thing but if it goes on for another two months i mean that is real structural change in the economy

in terms of inflation oil prices all this stuff that i think you have to start you know changing your calculation as to what is the short-term inflationary pressure the one thing i've tried to restrict myself from getting involved in in conversations with institutions during the week but also my weekend videos is in this thing of trying to handicap how long this will be the one thing that everyone should just accept we will have higher oil for longer it'll take a while for the risk premium to come down regardless of how long this regardless there's no kumbaya moment What you described as what you thought, number one, that was the majority of people. And again, I didn't get in my head of thinking about it that way.

I was more focused on credit and the other issues that were happening. But I also think, unfortunately, that that was probably the administration's belief that sometimes you are a prisoner of your own success in terms of your decision making. He had the success of Venezuela. He had the success of last year with the bunker bombs. this one has proven to be different and what it has opened up is the realization which the military has talked about and everyone has known this the strait of hormuz is a critical choke point for the global economy plain and simple and right now by killing leaders inside a country

we don't know who's making the decisions and if there's no organization that means anyone can send a missile into the, like, who's going to stop it if there's no organization? And so I think the reality is we have to assume that oil prices are going to be higher than they were before, which means inflation is going to be higher than before. Gas at the pump is going to be higher than before. And that means that the economy is going to slow down, plain and simple. Now, AI spending is not going to change, but with all of this happening, it's why I've said, I want to be long hardware. I want to be long commodities. I don't want to be anywhere near software. And this year has been, again, about long-duration assets are uncertain. So first,

it was the AI disruption. Well, now we're saying we don't know where oil prices will be at any point and that they could easily gap to the higher side. And most people don't own any energy. So remember, at the beginning of the year, the total market cap of the energy stocks in the S&P 500 was 3%. 3%. You're dealing with less than $2 trillion, right around $2 trillion. dollars. NVIDIA is two times that. So energy had been left for dead as an investment side. When you add materials in, you had a combined number of maybe five percent while technology is 53. So we have a long re-rating that's happening. And so the way that I'm thinking about this is the 1970s, which is multiple compression happens in stocks when we have

uncertainty. That's what happened during the 70s. And I'll remind people that's actually what happened in 2022. So in 2022, we never had a recession. We had stocks fall, but the earnings kept growing. And I think you want to have earnings that are, you want to be long companies that are not subject to the pains that happen with higher inflation. So anything that's a long duration, high multiple stock trading at 30 PE, well, your multiples have to come down because now you've got trouble from AI and you've got trouble from this other situation. And I think the other place that this ends up being is that commodities and materials are the place that people need to have in their portfolios for the first time. And for those of you that have your money indexed to spies, you're locked into a low inflation basket.

It has done well during the period from 2008 to now where it was about QE, low interest rates, low inflation. We're in a new regime and I think people have to adapt their portfolios that way. One of the smartest asset allocators, investors on Wall Street, in my opinion, is an anonymous account on X. But I know him. I talk to him quite often. His current portfolio, as of maybe a week and a half ago, 75% gold, 25% Bitcoin. No equities. Crazy?

Good idea? How do you think about – you're talking about energy and still equity exposure to these types of things. I think he's taking your idea almost to the extreme and saying, well, let me just go into the things that are most indexed to money printing and debasement and all this kind of stuff. Well, first of all, I know that's not true. Nobody has all their money in just those two. There's got to be some cash in there as well. So let's just say of the – This guy is a little crazy, so I don't know.

But yes, most likely he does have some living cash. He's still got to go in and buy a coffee. So there's something that's sitting somewhere. But to be fair, my portfolio is not too different. Bitcoin's my largest investment. I now have a lot more silver than I've been gradually buying silver miners and silver during this, because that's one place that I want to be involved. But then if you look at it, it's mainly semiconductors and memory things and things all

connected to the themes that I write about every week and publish. i had to create a model portfolio which i'm going to start showing on my paywall for people so there's a hundred names in there bitcoins in there and then some of the other things we've talked about on here palantir and tesla and stuff like that but year to date it's up 18 percent and now these are all themes in the last four months which are all geared towards the build out of ai it means optical fiber okay prices are going through the roof chemicals petrochemicals are going to go through the roof because of what's happening in the middle east because we're all connected to this. You've got the semiconductor side. Memory is a part of that too. And even

though memory has come down now, you're still dealing with memory prices that are going to be higher going forward. So whether it's gold in this, gold got down for the year not too long ago, I do think people should be looking in their portfolio more at that. When this becomes a theme, I think the equity market will reset at a lower level when multiples get down significantly enough. And I think the first level for the S&P 500 is around 6,000, which would put the S&P down a little bit more than 13% off the highs, probably 15%. I'm not looking for too much lower than that for the time being to let earnings grow and to kind of go through this. And so if people think about the market that way, that don't worry about a big recession,

don't worry about those things because AI is going to keep spending. And whether people like it or not, we're just not as sensitive to oil as we were in the past. And you're going to start seeing a lot more stories about that. But the reality is in 2007, before the great financial crisis or 2008, we had oil prices up to $155. So we're now fast forward 18, 19 year or 18 years from that point, household net worth has gone from sub a hundred way below a hundred. So we're probably from 60 trillion to 180 trillion, but oil prices are still lower than they were, which means the impact of oil to consumption is not as big as it was. What you will see is inflation is going to move higher and that will again hurt the K-shaped economy. And that means

the credit problems are not going around. And I'm sure we're going to start seeing some weakness. And I think recession fears will grow. This tax season, for the first time, U.S. exchanges are required to report your 2025 crypto and NFT sales directly to the IRS. They'll do this using the new 1099-DA form. And some exchanges have already started to send users a copy. But here's the catch. You're still responsible for calculating and proving your cost basis for every taxable transaction. That's where Sum, who we were previously all new for years as CryptoTax Calculator, comes in.

Sum supports TurboTax and makes it easy to track your cost basis across a massive 3,500 exchange, wallet, and crypto integrations with support for DeFi, NFTs, staking, and airdrops. Sum helps you maximize your deductions, generate accurate IRS-ready reports, and pay the least taxes possible. That's why they're rated 4.5 out of 5 on Trustpilot and serve as an official tax partner in both Metamask and Coinbase. So do the sums. Know where you stand. Get 20% off your first year with code POMP20. Click the link in the description or visit some at sum.com and use code POMP20. Have you seen the double top inflation chart where I think it was in the 70s? You know, you get the big explosion, it comes down and then you basically get it reflaring right back up.

Yep. Could we see that? Could we see 9% inflation off of this? Well, so far, one year tips are up to 5%. Uh, so you've gotten up to five 20. So the market's building in that for this year, it's halfway to go up. Yeah. And I mean, rates, short rates have gone up.

We have fed hikes starting to be built in. Uh, I would be very surprised if we don't see inflation headline CPI above five, I'll put it as better than 40% chance that we're above five this year. Uh, we're certainly year 2026. Oh yeah. Well, by the time we get to the middle of May and we get the report for April, we will have headline inflation above four. Not even a question that that will happen, certainly. And the reason is because gas at the pump, plastic prices, airline, all of that stuff's going higher.

Fertilizer prices, you're going to see food go higher. And that's all going to happen short term. The import price inflation we just got. For February. now i say february because it's not even before or not oil prices were 63 or 66 dollars when for that month it was up 1.2 percent for the month so now again most of that was from electronics what people forget is dram prices are up 400 like there's other components all the peripherals and technology all that optical fiber this country imports a lot so the ai side has increased the

good side. And believe it or not, remember how much the tariffs were being eaten to some degree and it never filtered through. This is just the nature of what companies do. If their input prices are now going through the roof and they didn't pass them through before, part of that was because their productivity numbers were good. If they start seeing consumption drop off, it wouldn't be surprising to see them err on the side of moving things higher. That's what caused a lot of the problems back in COVID is this mentality of moving higher. So we will see it at a higher level. And that's, again, why I don't see a chance of the market having a sustainable bottom where you can move out of this and actually start to go higher until we have a peak in year over year

inflation. Every day that passes, I think it's more likely that that's going to happen towards September, not towards April, even if things ended in the in the straight, because I think the filtering through of all of these other prices are going to happen very, very, very, very soon. Yeah. Doubling of inflation this year, I think would shock people. And to your point about this market submission, it would catch a lot of people off sides. What happens to private credit, private equity, kind of these other things that are not doing so hot already? So let me give you the other part of the 1970s, since people are going to be looking at that chart of the first wave and then the second wave. The second wave had another part associated with

it, which is not going to happen this time. In my opinion, this can't happen. If it does, we're in bigger trouble. The unemployment rate went up to 10% during that second wave. I don't believe that can happen. We still have a labor shortage and we still have a tremendous amount of net worth in the country. So it is a very different situation because back then, oil was such a bigger part of the economy you're going to see that chart so it made sense it's a different world now we're a digital economy we have 20 percent of consumption in this country is health care which does not change and has no cyclicality and for everyone to realize a lot of that is funded by the government so when you've heard the term universal basic income just remember

we have five trillion dollars a year that is basically transfer payments to people that includes Medicare, Medicaid. It means that the expenditures for healthcare, because we have a sick country, they're spending that much money. That's GDP. That's 20% of consumption now of expenditures. Wealthy people are not going to change their spending habits dramatically. Yes, they'll pull back on some things, but to actually see the job losses, you actually need to see consumption drop off a cliff. When you add in the one plus trillion dollars that are happening in CapEx from AI, well, that's 3.5% of GDP. You add in the consumption, which maybe it'll fall, but it's been growing at four, maybe it grows at two. You're still dealing with 5% type numbers

that are happening. There's going to be negatives in housing. There'll be negatives in commercial real estate. There'll be negatives in other things. And that part, little less consumption, little issues on commercial real estate, but more importantly, the liquidity trap that's happening in private credit will have an impact. So credit is not going to get better. The best case scenario for credit for me, the best case is that we go through a 2000 to 2005 situation where spreads gradually widen out. It's not some kind of systemic issue. This was all during the dot-com bubble, but you had to get rid of this spending, this debt that was happening that shouldn't have happened. And I think this is going to be a gradual credit spread rising, not a complete panic, but I do think they're going to have to intervene at some point in the private credit side. But that will happen when the insurance companies and in particular annuities are brought into

the equation, which I think is a growing risk every day. All right. So I want to bring all this full circle here. You know, we talk a lot about AI. You got on perplexity and you used AI as a big, big moment for us here where we're going to reference something you built, which is you basically looked at the S&P's return by CPI regime going from 1933 to 2026. And what you asked is if CPI is above or below 4%, what was the annualized return of the S&P? And so the data shows that when CPI is below 4%, the S&P 500

is compounded at 11% annualized. When CPI is at or above 4%, then the market has actually lost money on an annualized basis and it's negative 1.19%. So basically high inflation has actually led to bad stock returns and vice versa. Do we go flat like our equities in the public market and therefore private equity? How bad is this? Well, there's two things about the numbers. First of all, a big shout out to perplexity with perplexity computer. So it's great. It's fantastic. And, and, and I've differentiated when I use it versus open claw and how I'm using the two. It, it, it re I, everyone who's out there who wants to understand how agents work and how you can do projects and build dashboards and things like that, just play around with it, pay,

pay the max money for one month, even if it's just for one month and just see what you can build. It's worth it. It, it, it, it's amazing what you can go through. So I did this where I got the data and then I just put the data in an Excel file and I gave it to him. Now, two things about it. Yes, when inflation is at least 4%, so anywhere where it's been 4% and higher, until it gets back below, that's the return. The problem is while inflation is going up, the returns are much more negative. So you have to think about, and this is what happened during the 70s. In the 70s, even when inflation was high, the bottom for stocks happened when year over year CPI peak. So even if it peaked at 10, when it started to decline, stocks went higher

and they got back to kind of unchanged while it went back below four. That's the main thing that I think people should keep in mind is stocks are about not good or bad. They're about better or worse. And so the rate of change matters a lot. And one of the key things for people to think about in trying to forecast where is a good time to buy, like, okay, when do I buy? Okay. For some of the names that you like i still like micron it's trading at sub 4pe off earnings next year and they're very likely to beat earnings but i think the helium problem could bring some production cuts so i thought in my mind as we kind of when i started turning more bearish that i could see this thing go down to 325 and the reason is nvidia is cheap and nvidia keeps getting cheaper and

they've had 20 30 40 50 percent drawdowns they had deep seek moment which draw drew it down last for no valid reason. I think Micron is going to go through a similar thing. I think the memory names are going to go through that. So I kind of have a list of places where I want to be buying stuff. I bought VIX, whatever it was, four or five weeks ago. Well, when I was sitting out in your lobby, I've got offers out there in my VIX stuff that I bought to sell a little bit because I'm taking off some of my hedges as we go through, not all of them. But I think at this point, we've fallen now 7% off the highs pre-market with where the VIX was. We were equated, 9% off the highs. Well, if I think there's a 20% correction that should happen in the S&P

of 15 to 20, we're kind of halfway through it, maybe 40%. So you should be taking off a little bit of the hedges and you should be buying a little bit. But if you want to find the spot where I think you can safely get things, it's when the high in and year over year inflation will be. And like I said, I think the earliest that can be is the middle of May. It's probably out towards September. So I just want to be cautious, but those are the places I'm going. In Bitcoin, I want to start buying at that exact point. Before we get to Bitcoin, let's say you're right on mid-May. That's still quite a long time before the midterms. Can we be back at all-time high stock prices by midterms?

No, I don't think people should be thinking all-time highs in stocks this year. So last year when you asked me the question um i think we both said yes i this last year was awesome last year was was good it's i i don't think people um like me as much when i'm negative yeah but i'm i'm not i'm not negative there's a bull market in hardware there's a bull market in commodities when those things are in a bull market um scarcity is a tough thing to trade like shortages are not easy um they go up a lot then they come down a lot you have to have a little bit more comfort with the volatility as opposed to owning software names or owning the mag 7 or whatever it is uh i i i think people just need to get comfortable with it's not a bear

market it's a bull market in some things so when you say all-time highs you're embedding two things is software going back to all-time highs no no it's not uh that's a structural change it never should have been at levels. Will financials go up? Is the private credit situation going to reverse and go back? No, it's not. Well, that's a big chunk of the market. Is Oracle, is Meta? No, they're not. So you have to remember that if the market only ends the year down five, which I think is very possible, there'll be a lot of stocks that are up significantly. And rather than focus on the index, which is weighted to a world that no longer exists, that is disrupted by AI, you have to focus on this. Do I think the Brazilian market will be

at all-time highs before the end of the year? Absolutely. But it's not off the all-time highs by that much. So that's the way I want people to think about it. Same thing with silver, same thing with other things like that. There's better things to ask the question rather than the S&P 500. I think that's just making a mistake. Bitcoin? That will be at all-time highs. All-time highs by midterms? Yes. In my opinion, Bitcoin will bottom first. it will, it's already acting better. I mean, it's amazing that during this whole four week period, crazy four weeks, it has sat every single day between 68,000 and 72 on a closing basis, except for like three days. It's insane that you've been able to sit there now.

Why do you think that's happening just before you get to the price? Well, first of all, I do think that there were a lot of trades that were short Bitcoin in general. So one of the things people have to do, like I was listening to some podcasts on the way over here, like, yeah, consumer staples are going down. That means something good's happening in market i'm like guys you guys got to get used to this when there's deleveraging pair trades are coming off deleveraging by definition the hedge fund world means okay i'm long gold i'm short bitcoin i think a lot of people had that trade on it was working great well when they take that off it leads to a bid in bitcoin the same thing that was killing it say the other thing is software

has bottomed like it hasn't fallen yet it's not rallying but it's not falling if software has found a level, which I kind of think it has, where it's very difficult for it to go down a lot. So now it just trades with the beta of the S&P. Well, that's good for Bitcoin. So I think that's the first thing that's happened. The second thing, and this is the point that I really do think people need to put in context, I think we're in a world of liquidity. I think real-time liquidity is becoming very, very important to people. It's not just private credit that people are trapped it. Remember, they're trapped in private equity, like the endowments. They need liquidity. Liquidity is going to be a bigger story because part of the thing that I talk about

is I believe the fiat assets have peaked. So the reason I don't think stocks are going back to all-time highs is because I think in 10 years, best case scenario, they're the same price they are now. That's in my mind what I believe because of AI. If that's the case, there's a gradual debasement. And what people have to be comfortable with is we always talk about debasement from a debt perspective. The debt of the US government at $40 trillion is small in comparison to the household net worth in the United States of $175 trillion. The global assets are $800 trillion. Most of that is illiquid. The liquid part, the stocks, the bonds, okay, they're both down this month. This will be the worst month for a 60-40 portfolio since 2022. That includes liberation

month last year. So that's because it didn't stay down that long. This will be a bad month for people in their portfolios. What are they going to do? What are they going to look to? Well, Bitcoin during the month is going to hang in there. And if all of a sudden you look back at the end of the year, and this is the reason why I think there's going to be a flood of money into liquid items that are growth. And if you want to perform and you're a pension fund or an endowment, they need to make money. I don't think people realize that having been both at Morgan Stanley and then at a hedge fund where I talked to these investors, they have to meet their liabilities. That's why the endowments needed to raise cash. They needed liquidity. So I think the

liquidity part of the argument is becoming a story that is very, very important. And the same thing goes for hedge funds. If they're levered significantly and the correlations are shaking, they need to raise cash. They need more liquidity. So I just think there's a problem in the market that people don't realize how much liquidity is going to be in demand for the rest of this year. And that liquidity will lead to items that trade 24 seven that are liquid and have a growth component. So once the equity market finds a level where the multiples are just too cheap, which I think is going to come up within the next 10% of the S&P, I think Bitcoin will again be the fastest horse of the race. And I think at that point, it's going to bring a lot

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to upgrade your retirement today. What about the altcoins? The altcoins are going to take more time. So, but again, they'll bottom the same time. Will the altcoins recover to all-time highs? Some of them will, of course. Don't get me. I love the entire community. I don't want to talk about altcoins.

What I want to talk about- Ladies and gentlemen, that might be your answer right there. No, there's- So- I think they're going to have a very tough time. I actually, sure, maybe there's an outlier here or there. I do not think most of the altcoins are going back to all-time highs. They will bleed out definitely against Bitcoin.

And I think that most of them are going to have a tough time. 2027 is going to be a very different year for the crypto space than this year. This year is a transition year away from fiat assets. And for that to work, two themes need to happen. Number one, the growth asset story. And again, as someone who admits repeatedly on every interview I do, I did not expect Bitcoin to come back below 100,000, but I also did not expect the re-rating in software to go so violently so fast because of ai progress stable coins traded record volume in january i

haven't seen the february numbers i don't know if you have but 11 trillion dollars in the first month of the year off of 33 trillion means the agentic world is accelerating so the network effects are going to happen ethereum is going to benefit from that bitcoin will benefit from so the the the most important thing to me is what are the volumes doing in stable coins that's my direct linked to the AI agents? How much of the guardrail is being used? Number two, Ethereum is an important gateway for all of the hedge fund people and all of the endowments and all that. And the reason is because it actually can be used in a discounted cash flow. You can actually attach something to it to convert Ethereum back into this. And if people haven't done the work, and I'm sure they have

because of Circle to some degree, I am getting asked the question more and more from smart people because I think they're giving up on software. I think they're really getting tired of like, why am I trying to buy this? But I don't know. Let me find something that's growing. Well, this area is growing. So I think Ethereum is a critical thing. You need to stay above 2000. We break back below. Bitcoin will go back down towards 60. But I think this bottoming process is healthy from that perspective. And then the final part is people still ask me the question, well, how does Bitcoin benefit? And I just say the same thing. Do you guys realize that the majority of people do not invest in individual securities with stories? Yes, they do. No, they don't.

They're in SPY. There's no story for SPY. Bitcoin is SPY with inside the digital world. It always will be. So when people say store of value, I always sit there. I'm like, do you think a pension fund is ever going to go buy Solana? Do you think a pension fund is ever going to go buy any other altcoin that you want to name right now? Maybe down the road, but they barely got approval to get into Bitcoin. And if Bitcoin's working, they all can buy it at this point for a variety of reasons. And so I think you're going to see weightings in this go up. And if there's one really positive sign, having attended so many events, your events, digital asset summit this week, the community's not very optimistic from the retail side, from the entrepreneur side,

there's a lot of buzz still going on. Well, they see also you've net new buyers coming in the Market and buyers being large institutions who need software infrastructure, allocate the funds, you know, buy assets, whatever. So, like, it is this, I forget where I saw it. I mean, it was Ben Horowitz. Somebody was talking online. I saw a clip. And they were basically saying that right now, if you're like a salesperson at OpenAI or Anthropic, like, don't start believing your own nonsense. you know you're basically you know throwing uh throwing fish food into like a little you know

gold uh a little fish bowl and people are just predisposed to buy ai well if you go talk to a digital assets team at a traditional financial firm right now they got to get in the game they got cash they got budget they you know what i mean so like they're going to go and spend which is great for the industry yeah the retail folks been here but i don't need a 17th exchange i don't need another hardware wallet i don't need you know whatever software and so i do think that that's also why you're seeing the like institutional pivot is people the entrepreneurs are chasing where the money is like where's the budget and all that um interestingly maybe that's why all the old software companies are also starting to struggle is like right now the

question isn't do i switch from crm number one to crm number two the question is do i keep my crm Or do I just build an AI, you know, version, right? And so there's less kind of chasing of new dollars in all the software. So let's separate software and let's talk about the AI startups. And you brought up a good point to me. And if we go through what we've talked about, you and I have both talked about the insane ability for AI startups to ramp. Yep.

Like just go from zero to a hundred million AR very quickly. So cool. But now you're starting, you're personally, because you're involved with a lot of these companies, it's just the nature of who you are and what you get involved with. And now you're starting to see that the competition comes so quickly as well. So it's very, very hard for two sets of like a VC portfolio. On the one side, they have all these SaaS companies that they invested in in 2022, which are now under the public company destruction.

At the same time, you have this other cohort where they're making investments in companies And all of a sudden, and I mentioned this with Cursor, I haven't touched Cursor or Replit since Claude Code entered my life. I literally just canceled the subscriptions to both. Hey, can you get the Replit one back and Lovable, the bottom investors in both of those? Come on. But you start to see- Amjad, let's go.

I got a retention of one right here. Let's go. You see what starts happening is that the world is changing so quickly that it's no longer Waze has a ramp for a while, and then you wait for Google Maps to get enough subscribers to go. This stuff is changing so rapidly that it gets back into the point that I've written about since, and I looked at the first time I wrote this, it was in 2023, after I used ChatGPT for a while, I said, it's official. You will never have a moat again. A moat is durable. A moat lasts for a long time. It's not going to happen for software-based companies because any idea

can be uploaded to open call and say hey build this for me i while i was before i came for for to meet you i was in a restaurant having a little breakfast and i was going fancy yeah that was dishes it's great i'll give a little shout out um i'm i'm on x and all of a sudden this amazing tool gets mentioned to me someone posted something in github and there and whenever i see this get rid of your bloomberg terminal you can do this now i always upload it but here's what i do now i'm sitting there and i go to telegram i copy all i do is copy the x post i put it into open claw and say do me build this for me so i can use it when i get home first of all it was done in no time but the amazing part is it starts sending me all these

messages open claw assistant and my open clause name is snake for snakes blitzkin it's too amazing amazing you guys know who snake blitzkin is you well matt does see all right you don't know who it is right okay it's from escape from new york any any anybody watching this who's my age they know who it is there's there's some good uh maybe that's what i'm about to do this yeah this weekend it's perfect for this time escape from new york it's about getting out of this really dystopian time um but the reality is that's how fast things are moving and i go back to my belief in bitcoin and all of really kind of i'll say ethereum at this point because it does have emote for now. For now. Okay. Let's not get into it. Go ahead. I want the ETH heads coming after

me. Well, here. Bitcoin in particular has no story. And it's my favorite thing. It has just been chosen. And it's very hard to break a belief. It does have a story. The Immaculate Conception. Well, the Bitcoin white paper created a belief system. It's been accepted. It is the chosen one, not just for hundreds of millions of people around the world in different countries, but for institutions, it is the only way if they want to invest in the ecosystem. And what I learned a long time ago, the one thing that I've never found in a human being, except for a few Buddhist monks that I've met, every human being has one overlap with each other. They're all greedy. And so they all need to make money for the future. And if something is going

higher and something is not going higher, which is where I view software, that's why I love the debate. Software is going higher. No, it's not. It's going higher. I don't want to be involved in it. I think it's just dead money. I want to be invested in something that can compound at 50% a year. And I think Bitcoin will do it. So all-time highs for Bitcoin this year, mainly because inflation is here, liquidity is needed, and I don't see a regime shift going back the other direction. I actually think we officially left the glory days of QE and inflation. And we're in a world where the government can't print money, debt's high, and the rotation of the assets is going to start chasing the one that doesn't have a story.

as a bitcoin investor i hope you're right that'd be amazing um so do your kids let's see what happens uh what are you gonna do your video on this week uh i'm gonna show a lot of um a lot of things on inflation if people are still debating uh for those who've not seen my video go see it um each sunday morning at 8 30 i never ask on this show for people to go watch the only reason i'm saying i do that for you i tell people you do you're very you're very very nice that's why we're such good friends at this point um i the reason people should go go like he's like a hot girl who gets all the compliments of course i'm like hanging out with that guy um before we we shot this i talked about the importance of storytelling

um i suck at many many things in life i will never claim to be um the most educated the most the most well-spoken you give me a pen i can write things and i can correct it and go slowly but here's what I do do well. I can tell a story because I can connect the pieces that I think are separate pieces that are important, put them together. The inflation situation is going to be the major story for the next two months. It is a problem in Asia that is already existing throughout Australia, through New Zealand, through Vietnam, through Indonesia, through every place there. It will be in Europe soon because the energy can't make it around the globe. And once it gets over to the U.S., it won't be as bad because we have our own energy

production here. But the problem is we import stuff from around the world. And I will be highlighting what happened with the import prices. And you have to remember, this is before oil went higher. So we import a ton of stuff. Forty percent of the S&P revenues come from overseas. There's an inflationary component. And by people seeing this, it's not a bearish thing. I don't want to get into that. It just means that we've shifted regimes. People need to adjust for it. And I think once the sentiment accepts that inflation is going to be above 4%, we can be at a better time to start making some investments on the aggressive side again. Jordy Visser on YouTube.

Search that. Go watch the video. When you're there, actually what we should do, you want to have some fun this weekend? You should leave a comment that says, Pomp sent me and just blast his comments with Pomp sent me. It'd be real fun for him to try to see what everyone's saying. All he reads is Pomp sent me. All right.

That's it for this week. Thanks so much. Do it again next week. Thanks, guys. Thanks.