The Pomp Podcast - Why Bitcoin & Stocks Will Go Up Forever | Anthony & Polina Pompliano

Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. what's up everyone this is anthony pompliano many of you know me as pomp you're listening to the pomp podcast which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them

Starting point is 00:00:42 for hours while i ask questions in an effort to learn so it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform watch episodes on youtube and tell your friends and family about the podcast my goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. What's going

Starting point is 00:01:24 on, guys. Today, we got a great episode with Polina Pompliano. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, whether I think it's going higher or lower, or it's just going to go sideways for a couple more weeks. On top of that, we talk about the government printing money, what's going on with inflation, what I see as the biggest risk in the market. And then, of course, we get into stocks. Are they overvalued? Is there a big market crash coming? And what should you be doing as an individual investor? And who should you be listening to? Lots of spicy takes that you guys will all enjoy. Here's my latest conversation with Polina Pompliano. All right, Polina, what's first topic. All right. The market is way up and we continue to hit these all time highs.

Starting point is 00:02:01 Are we due for a crash? Well, nobody ever knows that there's going to be a real crash. A crash to me would be like we're down 30, 40 percent. OK, a correction. Well, of course, there's going to be corrections. You go up a little bit, you correct a little bit, you come back. But I don't think that what people are ultimately trying to get at is, is it sustainable? What is happening in the stock market and with Bitcoin. And my point to them is it depends on what your time horizon is. But yes, I do believe it is sustainable. Now, why do I believe it's sustainable? Think about how crazy this is. In 2020 to 2021, we went up. In 22 and 23, we went down. And now we're back up again. So over a five or six year period, if your time horizon is shorter

Starting point is 00:02:42 than five years for your investment portfolio, that's a whole different conversation. But over five years, it was not only sustainable, we just kept going higher over the medium term. And so I think that stocks are going to continue to go higher. Five years from now, they'll be higher than they are today. Bitcoin, definitely going higher. Five years from now, it'll be higher than they are today. If you go through all these assets, they're going to keep going up. Why? Because they are never, ever, ever going to stop printing money. That is all that matters. You either understand that and you express it in your investment portfolio or you don't but if you don't express it you are going to take it on the chin u.s dollar has lost 28

Starting point is 00:03:23 percent of its purchasing power since 2020 wow 28 28 most people are like oh since 1913 the u.s dollar has lost 99 of its purchasing power like we got screwed oh my gosh homie wake up in the last five or six years it has lost 30 okay that's crazy so now all of a sudden you ask yourself hold on a second how many people the stats all vary but about half of u.s citizens hold 100 of their economic value that they have worked hard to earn or the government gave it to that they have has lost 30%. That's like saying I have $100 to my name. Now I can only buy 70 cents worth of goods

Starting point is 00:04:13 or $70 worth of goods. Like, hello? I know. You got to become an investor. Do you want to know why the income inequality gap is widening or the wealth inequality gap is widening? It's because we have an education problem. And guess what?

Starting point is 00:04:28 The government is responsible for some of this. How many people would love to invest in private companies, but they can't because they're not accredited investors? Then how many people are being boxed out or significantly slowed before all these fintech platforms came along in getting stock brokerage accounts, in getting some sort of investment account? Thank God for the Robinhoods, Webulls, public.coms, eToros, etc. Thank God for the Coinbases, the Krakens, the Geminis, the Binances, etc. Because those platforms now give people access to investment assets. And so you can look and see and say, if 30% of the dollar's value has been lost in the last five or six years, you have to be an investor. Now that feeds into

Starting point is 00:05:22 Bitcoin is the hurdle rate. If you can't beat it, you got to buy it. Because if you look at The S&P 500 up 100% since 2020, priced in dollars, priced in Bitcoin. The S&P 500 is down 85, 90%. So it is all about relative comparison. What are you denominating the asset in? And ultimately, what we are living through is we are living through a transition period where a lot of principles that people thought were timeless, that people thought were safe, that people thought were prudent are proving to be disastrous if you follow it. If you have 40%

Starting point is 00:05:59 of your portfolio in bonds as an archaic 60-40 portfolio would historically tell you to do, you're getting crushed. TLT is down 50% in the last five years. You are getting crushed. 60-40 portfolio does not work the way it used to work because they are debasing the currency at accelerated rate it's hurting treasuries then if you look at 1971 to today the inflation rate which is the basement of the currency has actually been four percent not two percent so when you calculate what is your return here you want to hear a crazy stat sure listen to this this one's going to blow your guys mind new study from jp morgan 2002 to 2021 i believe the average investor return, 3.6%. The average investor, the S&P during that period, 9.5%. So the average investor

Starting point is 00:06:55 underperformed the S&P 500. That's bad. But you want to know the craziest part of that story? If you earned 3.6% per year, which is what the average investor did, the debasement rate of the currency at that same period was 4%. That means the average investor actually had a negative real rate of return for 20 years. A negative real rate of return. They did not outpace the debasement of the currency. You want to know why the average family can't survive? Do you want to know why people can't afford things? Do you want to know why the average person is struggling? It's because of that. They are not able to grow their salaries or their wealth in their investment portfolio at a faster pace than the debasement of the currency.

Starting point is 00:07:51 And so they fall further behind. And it's the people who understand this stuff, the people who know how to invest, they're the ones who get ahead. And that is the story of citizens in America, the affordability crisis, the housing crisis, and all of the wage growth. is all told in that one thing, the average investor from 2002 until 2021 actually had a negative real rate return on their investment portfolio, and they got crushed. Well, I think people are comparing what's happening today to the dot-com bubble bust. But are you saying that it's not going to bust like that because the government just keeps printing money?

Starting point is 00:08:31 Well, there's a couple of things. So the dot-com bust happened because the companies were all fake. well okay so everyone's like oh the s&p 500 oh my god look the s&p 500 is going up so fast well ladies and gentlemen but how do you why is it going up how do you know it's not frothy like it feels frothy to me here's a great data point did you know that this year did you know that this year the mag 7 has gotten cheaper on a valuation basis their earnings have grown faster than their stock price. So actually the MAG-7 is cheaper now

Starting point is 00:09:06 than it was at the beginning of the year. Okay. So why is that important? MAG-7 is driving majority of the S&P 500 return. Basically the 490 companies at the bottom of the 500, they ain't doing anything. They're not performing. It's the top 10 companies.

Starting point is 00:09:23 So if the MAG-7 got cheaper, that actually means that the companies that are driving the return are more attractive today on a valuation basis than they were at the beginning of the year. So everyone's like, it's frothy. Like, hold on a second here. I talked to Jordy Visser last week,

Starting point is 00:09:36 last weekend on Saturday. What'd he say? Earnings don't lie. These companies, look at Facebook's last earnings report. They are printing money. Bang, bang out performance. And so when you look at that, you say to yourself, hold on a second here.

Starting point is 00:09:53 What is everyone talking about? It's frothy. It's this, it's that. Are you guys looking at the same thing I'm looking at? because all i see is global m2 money supply is going to the moon and guess what asset prices are doing they're repricing but the invention of ai and its use inside of these big companies is driving earnings they're becoming more efficient how many times i have to say palantir says they're going to continue to grow revenue but they're going to do with 800 less employees

Starting point is 00:10:21 20 reduction in their employee base but they're going to keep growing hello ai new report out that young people has seen their unemployment rate grow by about five percentage points young people can't find jobs at the same rate that they used to be able to what happened ai is replacing their entry-level job so you start to say to yourself the ai story is actually driving productivity and earnings growth if that is happening then of course the company should be worth more money and so if the mag 7 is cheaper today than it was at the beginning of the year on that valuation basis, it's not frothy. You could start to make the argument that actually the company should be valued at more than they are right now because they are growing faster

Starting point is 00:11:00 and their earnings are actually proving out what they've been saying. It was at the beginning of the year, maybe there was some frothiness. And so my guess is we go higher. Oh gosh. Okay. Well, let's talk about Bitcoin and its role in this situation. Higher. Most Bitcoiners expect the U.S. to buy Bitcoin. But Scott Besson sent some mixed messages last week on a news hit with Fox Business. There was a Bitcoiner meltdown. Then he had to go clarify his comments. Tell us about what's going on here. I think he said the truth. What is the truth? So I do think the United States will buy Bitcoin at some point. But I think that right now they got a whole bunch of stuff they're trying to work through. I was of the opinion earlier this year that they for sure were going

Starting point is 00:11:45 to buy Bitcoin. They thought they were going to buy Bitcoin. Why are they not? Well, I think that they now realize that there is quite a bit of legislative checkboxes that they need to do in order to buy the Bitcoin. And so when you go in and you're like, hey, we want Bitcoin on our balance sheet. Okay, well, let's stop selling the Bitcoin that we've confiscated. We confiscate more Bitcoin. We're not going to sell that. Okay, that's a good start. They said, we have plans to buy more bitcoin great but doing it requires legislative approval and i think that that is going to be a little bit harder and so i do think that they will do it i just don't think it's going to be a short-term thing because of the mechanics uh from a government perspective are you

Starting point is 00:12:26 disappointed no i think that we all are learning uh at the same time so like if we didn't know that the legislative component of it was there yeah it'd be super disappointing they said they were going to do something they didn't do it now that is becoming clear because there's look lobbyists there's uh lawyers there's a lot of people who are voicing their opinion could that be an excuse it could be an excuse but i think that i've talked to enough people from a political standpoint um especially lawyers who are like yeah you're gonna need congress to sign off on this right now what whether that's true or not whether they decide to go to court over it you know they have options but it sounds to me like that is what people believe is that congress

Starting point is 00:13:03 have to sign off on it so it's going to take a longer time to be able to do it and you know i'm not an expert on washington dc but if you have only so much you know kind of political capital do you want to expend it on buying more bitcoin or do you want to expend it on you know the one big beautiful bill or you know other things like that um i think that's the you know calculation that's happening um but i do think the united states will buy bitcoin at some point um it just seems like like maybe it's a little bit further out than we originally thought. And they just removed interest deferral fees entirely so you can let Bitcoin price appreciation pay for your loan over time. What is MPC Decentralized Custody?

Starting point is 00:14:08 It's a Bitcoin or ETH on-chain wallet with multiple key shards to protect you from single entity custody failure. You can always see your crypto ownership in a segregated wallet and verify your collateral hasn't moved. Whether you're funding a major purchase like a down payment on a home, investing in new opportunities, or even buying more Bitcoin, Figure makes it straightforward and transparent. visit their app or click my link below to take out a bitcoin back loan with figure today so vanik is um has this price prediction for bitcoin that it's going to be 180 000 a coin by the end of the year what do you make of that that's a little bit more bullish than i've been saying i think the number that i've put out there

Starting point is 00:14:52 publicly you've put out a number well it's like maybe a year ago year and a half ago somebody asked me and i said look i don't know right so like to be clear i'm not predicting what's going to happen i'm just simply saying at the time i think bitcoin was somewhere between 50 and 75 thousand dollars i said i could see bitcoin going to like around 150 you know plus or minus 10 20 000 whatever it was um if you think about today that's pretty you know we're at 120 ish should i put out a price prediction no okay i think that you know 150 still seems like reasonable I mean, I hope it goes much higher than that, right? I see plenty of people saying it's going to $500,000 or $1 million or $300,000 or whatever.

Starting point is 00:15:33 By the end of the year? Listen, people, who knows? Larry Fink wakes up, hits the green button. You never know what could happen. But from that standpoint, yeah, I just think that $150,000 seems good. $180,000 doesn't seem like insane. If you think about it, that would be a 50% increase in price from where we are now. And the holidays are coming.

Starting point is 00:15:54 What does that have to do with Bitcoin's price? the grandmas at thanksgiving start buying do they yeah yeah q4 q4 is always the q order fourth quarter right well yes but that quarter that's always the q that really real ones now fourth quarter i know that means like we're gonna come back what like the fourth quarter we're gonna come back like sports yeah well no it's just the it's the fourth quarter so people are like you know it's like the last quarter they hold up you know four quarters but that's because you're down you're about to come oh just winning we're gonna close it out oh i see but in bitcoin terms in best business show terms fourth quarter it means we're going on it means the grannies are

Starting point is 00:16:34 coming yeah by the way we were right we blow off top in the fourth quarter 2021 we're i don't understand right yeah yeah i mean to be real i mean we nailed that who best business show fourth quarter oh you guys would say that but we would all hold it up me joe john that's whoever fourth quarter i watched it every day yeah all right what's next okay um all right let's talk about memes and how the meme is the message wall street sat on the sideline for a decade as retail ran up the price of bitcoin and now we're watching the continuum of meme world dominance sorry thank you that for yep um so in the past few weeks open door eric jackson well eric jackson has led a mutiny of shareholders who are displeased with open doors performance and then you know open

Starting point is 00:17:31 door ceo stepped down because of pressure from retail and the public um and then the whole story he had to just go ahead open door so once upon a time company that went public via spec then fell a lot um straight at 51 cents i think was the bottom um around 56 cents eric jackson came out he runs a small hedge fund in canada um who previously had uh called attention to carvana before it went on an epic run okay he's got some credibility and he came out and he basically laid out a thesis that open door should be worth a lot more and i think his target was 82 a share in 2027, 2028, 2029, something like that. And if stocks trend at 50 cents

Starting point is 00:18:14 and it goes to $82, that's a lot. And so people obviously were like, hey, what's this guy talking about? And so they started to pay attention to it. And pretty much what people uncovered was it was a company that had been bleeding. And so Carrie Wheeler, who was the CEO at the time, she used to be a CFO.

Starting point is 00:18:28 She stepped in as the CEO. I don't think she gets enough credit for stopping the bleeding, right? She stabilized the business. It's kind of like if you come upon a victim and you're a paramedic what's your first job stabilize the victim then we'll worry about everything else later right stabilize the victim if they're dead doesn't help so that's what she did she basically prevented the business from dying from there what did they do uh not much

Starting point is 00:18:51 and so that was basically what eric and some of the retail people started yelling screaming about it now i saw what they were doing and i decided i was gonna dip my toe in the water and you know buy some shares and uh then i invited the ceo for an interview that's listen people were saying she's not doing a good job some people were saying she's doing a good job people asking what i thought is how i never talked to her how do i have an opinion is doing a good job or not i gotta talk to that person so uh she agreed uh two days later she stepped down not because of the interview just stepped down um i did get asked i did get asked whether i should do a post-game interview i decided not to do that that'd be funny for q4 q4 that'd just be overtime

Starting point is 00:19:27 i was like oh you know post-game uh and so um they're gonna go find a new ceo now they are going through transformation and look i i the reason why i'm holding shares in open door is because i believe two things are true i think that they are well positioned if they execute correctly to capitalize on their uh kind of opportunity in residential real estate there's a huge opportunity to use artificial intelligence and data to be a very dynamic uh market participant and to do so in a world where there's going to be rate cuts coming, which should drive home sale volume, which obviously is good for a place like Opendoor.

Starting point is 00:20:09 And if they are able to build a relationship with sellers and direct that seller intent to their products and services, I think they can build a big business and business that is worth way more than it's worth today. So money where my mouth is, right? Skin in the game, bought some shares, let's ride. Now, the other thing is I'm a very big believer

Starting point is 00:20:29 in the power of the crowd. And I think that we saw that with Bitcoin. I think we're seeing that now. What people are calling is this is like kind of like the first retail activism campaign where people are advocating for changes inside of a business. And I just always think that the hive mind

Starting point is 00:20:45 of smart people on the internet who are obsessed with something will eventually figure it out. And so I'm very impressed with the hundreds, if not thousands of product ideas, communication feedback, just all this stuff. and so there's a lot of people who are pointing at open door like oh it's a meme stock it's this like i don't think so i think this is a real company where if a hedge fund was doing this

Starting point is 00:21:07 no one'd be like oh it's a meme stock they'd be like no the hedge fund is doing an activism campaign to drive improvements in the business to unlock shareholder value so this is like a retail activist campaign decentralized hedge fund everyone makes your own decisions you want to invest invest you don't want to invest don't invest you want to buy some shares and sell them the next day do that you want to buy shares hold them for like everyone make your own decisions everyone's adults in the room right not financial advice entertainment purposes only public conversation everyone make your own decisions what better way to create the power of the crowd everyone's got an economic incentive some people by the way don't believe that the activism is

Starting point is 00:21:44 going to work and so they're short that's how market gets made you got people who are long you got people who are short that got a market nice um but at the same time you have the collective intelligence of a lot of people who are all working together to try to figure out how do we improve this business? And frankly, some of the ideas are really dumb. Some of the ideas are really, really smart and everything in between, but that is what happens, right? It's like, just like inside of a company, you bring a bunch of people in a room and you say, all right, we're going to brainstorm. How do we improve our business? Well, if you only have 10 people in the room, they got the advantage. They work in the business.

Starting point is 00:22:15 They know the data. They probably have industry expertise and experience and things like that. But now what you have is you've got hundreds, thousands, maybe tens of thousands of people who are all collectively brainstorming what can we do inside this business to make it better. That's pretty powerful. And I think that people are drastically underestimating what can happen to a business when they embrace the retail activism and they are able to actually improve the business. So if you just embrace the retail interest, but you don't improve the business, it doesn't matter. And what's interesting about this is that it is a product that a lot of these shareholders use right consumer product so it's potentially easier to critique and find ways to

Starting point is 00:22:55 improve it almost every day now i'm seeing somebody tweet at um different members whether chief product officer the new leader of open door etc uh saying to them hey there's a bug here there's this issue here whatever and these folks are responding on x yeah and then they're going and they're fixing it that's what you need like like this is there's something that is a peacetime CEO and a wartime CEO. We need a wartime CEO. We need a wartime executive team. We need a wartime board. We are at war with stasis. And so you've got to be able to go and actually drive momentum into this business. How do you do that? You increase the velocity. When somebody says there's a problem, fix it. Fix it immediately and go back to them and tell them we fixed it. How quickly can

Starting point is 00:23:39 you do it? Don't take days, take hours. Don't take hours, take minutes. How quick can you get the velocity in this business going and guess what's going to happen if they start to improve the business all of a sudden higher quality talent is going to start saying you know what i wasn't thinking about working at open door but now i'm interested yeah i'd love to go there right oh you know what a lot of investors start to say hey you know what that's interesting to me maybe i'll buy some shares right now capital becomes more abundant you can change a business you can improve a business but it's just funny that it started with memes memes are the message like Everything is a meme. Look, I wrote about it the other day, maybe today, whenever it was.

Starting point is 00:24:15 Berkshire Hathaway is the boomer meme stock. People hate when I say that, but it's true. And I got proof now. I said it before he stepped down. Now Buffett steps down, stock's down 10%. What changed about the business? Nothing. What changed about the economy? Nothing. Everything's gotten better. Why isn't the stock up? Oh, it's because it was a meme stock and the meme lord stepped down and so the meme is dying and so you get that was the buffett premium aka the buffett meme it was worth 10 of the company's market cap yeah so when he steps down now that premium goes away and you just have berkshire's assets right now you are going to see this everywhere and memes by the way direct a lot of dollars buy a home rather than rent not always

Starting point is 00:25:03 actually the smartest financial thing to do, but great meme. That meme gets passed from generation to generation and people all want to go and actually buy a home. And so I just think that memes are significantly underrated. By the way, if you don't like the word meme, then talk about the word narrative. The narrative is driving dollars. Of course, that's how it's always worked. And so whether it's Tesla trying to convince people that they're going to build an electric vehicle, whether it's Palantir saying they're going to use AI to do all this predictive analytics, whether it's a company like Facebook at a time that said they were going to connect The world, whether it's any other stock, they have a narrative, they have a meme that they

Starting point is 00:25:38 are trying to educate the market on. And when the market starts to believe the meme or the narrative, capital flows. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin IRA. Are you a crypto investor with a retirement account, but don't have any crypto in your retirement account? Listen up. This is for you. Bitcoin IRA is revolutionizing the way Americans save for retirement by helping smart investors

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Starting point is 00:26:36 as a pop podcast listener you can earn up to one thousand dollars in rewards when you add funds to your account before tax day search for bitcoin ira in the app store or visit bitcoin ira.com slash pomp to join 200 000 americans on their journey to upgrade their retirement that's Visit bitcoinira.com slash pomp to upgrade your retirement today. Yeah. Let's talk about inflation. Core CPI inflation is back above 3% and PPI inflation is at its hottest since March 2022. Should the Fed still cut rates?

Starting point is 00:27:12 Yes. The inflation data is wrong. What? Yes. Oh, because Truflation has it right? The inflation data is wrong. It's that simple. true inflation right now is oscillating between 1.98 and 2.02 has been for a while which is lower

Starting point is 00:27:27 than it was in december so they were willing to cut rates when inflation was higher and unemployment has not significantly moved why are we not cutting right now what's the argument so phil rosen of opening bell said on x nyc employers added 98 fewer private sector jobs in the first half of 2025 compared to a year ago. The data hasn't been this bad in decades and we aren't even in a recession. I don't think the data is bad. Well, why? Because the company's job is not to see how many people they can hire. The company's job is to be as efficient as possible. So the companies are becoming more efficient, but they're also becoming more productive. So actually technology is doing its job. So like AI. Companies should be able to do more with less.

Starting point is 00:28:13 That's the whole point of technology. A farmer used to have to go hire hundreds of people. Now they own a tractor. People can yell and scream about it all day, but that is how innovation works. Yes, people are going to lose their job, but guess what? Yes, people are also going to gain new jobs. And so that is how this plays out. And again, I just call it how it is.

Starting point is 00:28:34 People don't like it if they're on the wrong side. People like it if they're on the right side. the company's job is to produce a product or service as efficiently as possible and create a return for its shareholders. There is technology now that allows them to do that in a way that they previously couldn't do. And so if you're a young person that doesn't have that much experience and has not yet proven to the market that your expertise is actually valuable, you are going to have a harder time because now you are competing with thousands, millions of AI agents who can do some part of your job.

Starting point is 00:29:09 So you better come up with a very unique proposition to a company as to why they should hire you rather than use AI. On top of that, what you're seeing is companies are saying to themselves, wait a second, because there was uncertainty in the economy because of the tariffs and the trade wars and all that stuff,

Starting point is 00:29:25 I actually do not wanna go and just keep doing what I'm doing. Instead, I'm going to reevaluate and say to myself, what are the options that I have? And people started to say, well, maybe we don't need to hire a person. Maybe we can just do something like use artificial intelligence. And so I think what you are seeing is if you look at it from an economic lens of job creation, yeah, you're like, oh, this data is bad. If you look at it from an overall economy

Starting point is 00:29:49 standpoint, earnings are up. Earnings beat expectations. So if you're focused on jobs, yeah, it looks bad. If you focus on the whole economy, the economy is actually getting more efficient. There's getting more productivity. GDP is growing like a weed. It is good for the overall economy. It's bad for the people who don't have a job. And so guess what's going to happen? You are going to see three things occur. People are going to have to upskill, reskill, or create a job. Those are the three things we're going to start watching play out here. Upskill, reskill, create a job. Upskill, go and get some sort of skill set that you don't have today in the same industry that you're in, right? Go figure out how to use these tools and

Starting point is 00:30:31 walk into a company and say, I know how to use these tools. You guys don't hire me and I'll show you how to do it. Reskill. I work in industry A, now I need to move to industry B because that's where job opportunities are. I got to reskill myself to be able to be successful in industry B. The third thing is that there are more and more people who are going to say to themselves, you know what? I'm not going to work or I can't work in this industry. I'm going to go create a job. And there are a bunch of tools now available to them to be able to go and be entrepreneurs with less risk. So that's where you're going to start to see a lot of people go. And I would already argue that you see this, podcasters, YouTubers, all the content creation stuff.

Starting point is 00:31:05 On top of that, though, there's a lot of people who are selling stuff on the internet in terms of Shopify or eBay or any of that type of stuff. On top of that, there's a lot of capital available. There's a lot of tools available. And you create a website to build a business, to do all that kind of stuff. Not everyone wants to be an entrepreneur. Not everyone can be an entrepreneur, but there's going to be more entrepreneurs rather than less entrepreneurs moving forward. So some percentage of those people will become an entrepreneur. The people who don't, either you're in a seat, a job title, and an industry that isn't going to get disrupted, or upskill and reskill. That's what we're facing here. And I don't think it's very different than

Starting point is 00:31:42 what we've seen time and time again over the past 50, 60 years. You seem very optimistic about many these topics is there anything that you're worried about with the economy yeah i think that the bearers completely destroyed people's portfolios i i think that we should literally call those people out and say you are responsible for the destruction of an immense amount of wealth for everyday americans who listen to you why because they told people there was going to be a great depression that the shelves were going to be empty that the world was ending sell sell sell all your asset, the big crashes, all this craziness. When instead, what they should have been telling people is the market's being irrational. Everything's going to be fine. Stop trying to sell because

Starting point is 00:32:28 the stock market is down 15%. And instead, you should actually be thinking about trying to buy things that are priced less, but still worth the same. And so if you go back, one of my biggest gripes in finance over the last five or six years is that there are certain people, some people in media, some people on the internet, some people as investors, some people who are just talking to their barber, who have been constant doom and gloom, constantly parroting the state talking points, all this stuff. And they have done immense damage to people's portfolio. And so people always want to know, why do I spend so much time talking, creating content, doing all this stuff? I don't get everything right. But if you look over time, I've probably been right more times

Starting point is 00:33:12 that have been wrong. And it's because this optimistic lens understands that over a long period of time, stocks are going up, Bitcoin's going up, gold's going up, real estate's going up, everything, because they're never going to stop printing money. So if you get focused on these short-term gyrations, it's much easier to be wrong, right? Because things move so rapidly, there's so much volatility. But over a long period of time, you simply have to become an investor. Anyone who's trying to convince you that the world's going to end, that these long-term investing trends are going to go away, those people probably are not that rich. Because guess what? How many people do you know who are not traders, who literally make money by taking

Starting point is 00:33:53 directional positions? How many people do you know that are wealthy that were telling people the world was going to end and they were selling all their assets? How many people in the Forbes 400 list sold all their stocks in April? I remember when all the tariff conversation was happening we talked to someone who works with a lot of wealthy people and she said that she only one client of hers was selling of course i know exactly who it was that person's a private banker she's got really really big clients and uh she said they were all buying yeah which i thought was surprising so think how crazy that is the rich people were buying but everyone was being told uh right public narrative that the world was ending shelves were going to be empty

Starting point is 00:34:38 you know sell sell sell so that's that's actually what i think is the risk the risk i see is that people listen they don't watch because if you watch and look at the trends look at the data you will know that these things are going up over the long run right again the average investor from 2020 uh 2002 2002 to 2021 they average on the average investor 3.6 percent return horrendous horrendous how many of those people were buying at the wrong time selling at the wrong time doing all stuff all you had to do is hold the s&p 500 9.5 return so what are we what are we doing here right is if you think you're smarter than the market you better be damn sure you're smarter than the market we're finding out that most people aren't right but i'm not saying i'm

Starting point is 00:35:24 smarter than market right how have i generated this i bought bitcoin right like it's pretty simple it's like bitcoin's a hurdle rate it can't be you gotta buy it right now i haven't made some other investments here and there some work some didn't whatever right but like but like that's the game and so i just think that it comes back to this idea of the biggest risk for the average person is that they listen to the people who are telling them how the world is going to end well yeah and it also depends if you're looking at it short term or long term again it goes back to if you're looking at it short term then you don't understand finance right if you are trying to trade in and out of assets if you're trying to um you know oh i think

Starting point is 00:36:14 the market's going to go down tomorrow let me sell today and i'll buy back tomorrow lower like Like now you're, now you are just a trader. Yeah. And I always go back. How many people in the Forbes 400 list are traders? Not that many. You know how most people got really, really rich? They built a business.

Starting point is 00:36:30 They held it for a long time. They reinvested the profits into investments. True. And held those too. And so there's a playbook. If you don't want to listen to it, that's fine. You can do whatever you want. But why are you so much smarter than the millions of people who came before you?

Starting point is 00:36:45 Is diamond hands still a saying? Of course. Oh, okay. Well, just have diamond hands. Yeah. Well, if you have diamond hands, then you can make fun of all the lettuce hands. Not scissor hands. Scissor hands.

Starting point is 00:36:58 You remember Edward 40? Yeah, Edward Scissor Hands. Yeah, but wasn't there like a Edward 40 hands? You know what that is? Oh, where you tape your things. I went to college, I know. You ever do that? No, what would I ever do?

Starting point is 00:37:11 I'm not a frat boy. Oh. Okay. this is all we have for today diamond hands thanks everyone

The Pomp Podcast - Why Bitcoin & Stocks Will Go Up Forever | Anthony & Polina Pompliano

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