The Pomp Podcast - Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING?! | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: June 6, 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is down 50% and whether the bear market is over, why he's still buying through the dip, how AI agents will drive bitcoin adoption, and why the rotation from AI hardware to human software is the biggest investment opportunity right now.=======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~9% APY on real world assets, paid hourly. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at figure.com/disclosures/=======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp=======================0:00 - Intro0:45 - Why bitcoin is down 50% & is the bear market over?6:48 - What would convince Jordi to sell his bitcoin?9:07 - Bitcoin as the S&P 500 of crypto14:02 - Why bitcoin is safer than any company past 203017:45 - Bitcoin volatility vs. the stock market22:22 - The five-layer AI stack & where revenues are missing26:22 - Token budgets & the shift to specialized AI35:10 - Are LLMs now commoditized?40:30 - Peptides as the API key for the human body49:24 - Healthcare, entitlements & the future outlook

There are more AI agents on HTML sites than humans. This is where we're headed. So if you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask me, what is a direct play on that? I believe Bitcoin is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Bitcoin. Why is it selling off? Is Jordy worried? And is he going to sell his Bitcoin? On top of that, we talk about what's going on with Eli Lilly, why he is so convicted that it could be the best AI name for the AI

trade. And then we get into a bunch of other second and third order effects of what's going on with the infrastructure build out, artificial intelligence, so much tokens being consumed. And then how does Bitcoin fit into all of this? All that and much more in this conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, Bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high. People are freaking out. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin this week and people think that maybe he doesn't believe anymore. What's your take as to why Bitcoin has fallen so much and is it over or will Bitcoin recover? So I learned my lesson that last year not to predict levels on the upside. I'm also not going to predict levels on the downside. Last week in my weekend video, I highlighted the

difference between a bull market and a bear market. And that's what charts are good for. We're still in a bear market until that changes and until we start seeing some moving averages start to either point higher. But more importantly, we failed at the 200-day moving average a few weeks ago. We started to go down again, all while the stock market was going up nine weeks in a row. So the good news is Bitcoin's not correlated to the stock market anymore. The bad news is it's down 50% off the highs. I wrote a paper last week in Substack about taking a stoic approach to everything in life. But it's really important with with markets. And I think for people that are either a frustrated or be people that are really happy and pounding on X

and the bearish thing, this bubble is going to unwind. Strategy is going to go bust. This is the way it all ends. None of that's true, in my opinion. I also don't believe that micron can continue to go up every single week. So on one side, we have this whole recognition of hardware everything should be bought we had software go down now you've had some of the software names go up most of them so people realize are not true software names they are ai software names so cyber names and the bitcoin miners and things like that so i think bitcoin's been lumped in um i'm starting to write about this more uh you're going to see a lot more from me i believe we're at a rotation point that's going to last for at least the next three to six months and that

rotation is we're kind of at a, I don't want to say a market stock market bubble. What I'll say is a rotation bubble. We've had one group winning and most groups have been losing. Starting to see a rotation. And I think software is going to have a bid, but I don't think when people recognize what I'm going to say with software, it's going to resonate with them. But the software is not going to be the traditional SaaS software. So I think people are going to have to think outside the box on human software and also the financial guardrails with tokenization and everything. And that's where my attention is focused. So I think Bitcoin's fine. Let it break through the 60,000 level. Maybe it goes down even below that. I don't really care.

You told me months ago, four-year cycle basically was like a male astrology, right? You're just like, why, why is this four-year cycle exist? Who made this up? Why does this thing? it would pay attention to it. Are you a believer yet? No. Why not? Again, first of all, I don't do the same thing with the stock market. One thing I will say is this is the first time in that quote unquote four year cycle that stocks are going higher at the same time that Bitcoin is going down. And I don't know whether that's good or bad. My whole belief has been that the only time that crypto can go through the growth that I believe it will go through, which is the transfer of wealth from the fiat system into the crypto side, or at least a merging of the two.

That was the whole reason why I focused on AI and focused on crypto. For that to occur, you need to run to a point where, believe it or not, they have to be uncorrelated to some degree. And I think we're at that phase now. So that's the positive side. The negative side is, and again, the thing that has always protected me in life, we all have views on assets. We all have views and we're all wrong at some period of time.

I don't want to get heavily involved with playing Bitcoin or any crypto stuff on the upside until someone else is doing it. I'm not a momentum investor, but at this point, we're not talking about momentum. It's down 50%. So let it start to base. Let it look like supply and demand have met a place where it's positive and then let it break a long-term moving average. There was something this week about Charlie Munger talking about if I could just have one thing in hindsight, It was the fact that find good companies that you believe in long term that get back to their 200 week moving average. That's the way I'm focused on Bitcoin.

I don't remember where the 200 week moving average is, but the 200 week moving average is a really important thing. And again, if you lock it into what you said, what is the 200 week moving average? Well, that's kind of a four year moving average. So if the four year cycle is this, it's fine. I've done a couple of interviews in the past week, and I just want to say this to everyone. Um, I believe that the IPOs that are coming, what Google did this past week, which I'm sure we'll talk about all of these, but I think these are a sign of something important.

It's not a stock market bubble to me, but it is a sign that people need a lot of capital right now for what is happening with inside the AI world. And that's an important story on the flip side with what's going on with crypto. I think if you would have looked in hindsight for a, what would be a sell the news event, very similar to what I think might be happening in the hardware side for the time being, an ETF launch, we're still above where we were trading until ETF launch. Number two, the US government basically decides that crypto is good and the president of the United States says, okay, and he launches a meme coin. If you would have taken those events, which basically

occurred in 24 and 25 and said, what would that be? Well, that will be a sell the news event. And yet Bitcoin went higher into those. But I think if you look at it and you go back to how many OGs have been selling and what's been going on, I do think there's been churn that's been happening now since 2024. So for people that are looking for hope, until the charts start giving you hope and you get it going higher on bad news type thing, I'm not going to get too into it. I'll still stick with the main thing I said, which is we right now have three month rates that are below inflation.

Just wait for the next trend higher in Bitcoin, and I think this will be the one that gets very important. What could convince you to sell your Bitcoin? I know this is going to not be the answer people want to hear, but there's a reason why all of my eggs are not in one basket. I have plenty of things. So does everyone who's investing own things that are probably going to zero. And everyone might sit there and say, no, that's not true. If you own the S&P 500, trust me, you own some things that are going to zero. Bitcoin is not everything in my life.

So I believe on where crypto is going to go. I have plenty of things in my portfolio that I'm going to own forever. I really do. Do I think Bitcoin might go to zero? Sure. It's part of the distribution of outcomes. Do I think quantum is going to do it? Do I think it?

I think it's a very low probability. So again, everything in my mind is always based on what my father taught me, which is what do I think the upside is versus what do I think the downside is? And then what percentage of the bets do I want it to be? It's not everything for me. So if people are sitting there and they have 100 percent of their wealth in Bitcoin, I think that's very stupid. If they have less than one percent, I think that's very stupid. I believe that it should be at this point in everyone's portfolio, at least two to three percent, regardless of what they believe in. So that's the way I'm going to answer the question. It could go to zero. I'm not selling any because it's not that important

in my lifetime. If it was, I'd probably be going through it. One thing I have said, I've never sold a single one in it, single Bitcoin. I have traded MicroStrategy many, many times, got in, got out, got in, got out. I will trade, but I trade more in MicroStrategy. And I really didn't own much Ethereum at all. I've been buying Ethereum during this whole drop. So I'm happy it's going down because I'm putting bits and pieces in. If we start to trend higher, I'm going to treat this like i did micron last year i bought micron from 105 down to 60 all beginning part of last year and look where it is today that's the way i view bitcoin for next year jordy you can't come into the church of a podcast and talk about ethereum why are you buying ethereum if bitcoin is so cheap

well i'm buying bitcoin as well um i the ethereum thing again is more of a uh an ecosystem thing at this point i i really am betting that the network effects are going to be the big story for next year, for the next 12 months. I think Bitcoin is going to be a participant in this whole situation. I don't know if you saw, I sent you something. So I am working on having a weekly YouTube that is specifically geared towards crypto. Now to do that, I want to convert for the traditional finance crowd, how they can look at the crypto ecosystem in the same way they look at the S&P 500, which means some sort of sectors or themes with inside. And so for me, Ethereum is a better proxy for that in terms of, I want to bet on the ecosystem. I'm not going to bet solely

on Bitcoin. But the reality is when I create an equal weight of 40 separate companies, 34 of them being cryptocurrencies or tokens, six of them being public stocks, all as one index, very similar to my agentic thematic portfolio, magically, it's extremely correlated to Bitcoin, even when you don't include Bitcoin in it. So for me, that means that the ecosystem is acting the way I think it should. It also means that Bitcoin is what I think it is, which is the S&P 500 of the crypto world. So at some point, it's the king. It's the S&P 500. It's the only thing that lasts at the end of time. And I don't know if we've talked about it. I don't believe any idea or innovation in the history of mankind has ever lasted. There's always a new thing that's better. There's always

a new way of doing something that's different. Well, that is what stocks are. That is what tokens are. They're ideas. They're innovations by human beings. And if AI is now going to be creating all of the ideas, that means they're not going to be around that long. There'll be something better that comes up. You're going to start seeing this far more rapidly. That's why when people say, well, what's the bear case on memory? I went very easily. You think human beings are going to solve the memory side. I don't. I think algorithms are going to solve the memory side. When is that going to happen? I don't know. But within five years, I know it will in my head. So when Goldman Sachs says five years from now, we'll be at this. I'm like,

I don't really care. That's why I stick myself in the AI world. So I just think for this whole thing, when people really think about crypto and they really think about this, you have to make a decision on whether you believe still in the long-term story. And if you don't, you should be out. If you still believe in the long-term story, then it's a gift that you're getting to put things down here. I'm not only buying from me. I mentioned to you early on when we started doing this, that I have strategic Bitcoin reserves for my kids. This is a blessing to me. My business is growing and i'm able to put more of the profits that i have back into bitcoin for my kids so if it doesn't work out sorry guys you guys lost out if it does work out the way i think it will they're

going to be very very happy in a few years it's always um i like old school ads because i think that the ad creative used to be very uh thoughtful very uh kind of bold right um and one of them i think it's a philippe patek uh has this entire ad campaign that talks about it's not your watch you're merely taking care of it for the next generation. And this idea that when you buy this, it is not only one going to last, but two is you are going to pass it down. And so now all of a sudden emotion, family, and all this stuff gets attached to it. Very powerful ad campaign for obvious reasons. It's very luxury positioning. But the more that I've thought about that campaign in an investment portfolio, especially when you have kids, you start to think about, well,

what if I don't think of this portfolio as mine? I think about it as theirs. And what do I want to allocate to resilience and the ability to have durability from a time horizon really becomes interesting. Now, the reason I think of that is because probably the smartest investor that I know who I don't want to name said to me one time that the hardest problem in finance is the intertemporal transfer of wealth. And I was like, yeah, that's too smart for me. What does that mean? He basically said, how do you give yourself money 20 years from now? So this idea again of resilience, of durability. And historically, I think a lot of families, real estate has been a great asset for them to do. But there are cases where Detroit used to be really popular. And now

all of a sudden, maybe the real estate prices aren't what they were at one point. Obviously, COVID, I think, really scared the heck out of a lot of corporate building owners in New York City, for example. And it's come back, but there was a period there where people were questioning it. I don't know of an asset more than Bitcoin that people have confidence in over some very long period of time, 50 years, 60 years is going to continue to do that. And so that's what I think I hear you saying as well is like, look, this is such a long-term thing that there's almost nothing that convinced you to sell it, but you understand that doesn't mean it's going to be successful. It's just the thing that you are playing or the exposure you're buying is almost

this like durability in the portfolio over a long period. Is that like a fair way to categorize it? yeah but so over the course of the last year you've gotten to know me and and the viewers and listeners have you weren't wearing these nice shirts back then you know now all of a sudden they've got a fashion uh icon so i i haven't um it's a hawaiian shirt and because i'm in this now library i think we're gonna call it the podcast cathedral that's what i've been thinking okay the podcast cathedral so i've decided that it needs a little hawaiian shirt every day until I head to Maine in three weeks. So here's the thing I'm going to say. I spend a lot of time thinking about what the future is going to look like. And I take bits and pieces from

a lot of futurists. So I mentioned yesterday that I met Keith Grossman and we talked about Kevin Kelly from Wired Magazine. Kevin Kelly had a huge influence on me during the 2014 to 2020 period. I read a lot of his books. He's a futurist that called a lot of things directly, right? His angle on this, in my belief in Moore's law, Ray Kurzweil, singularity, all of that stuff is why I believe in Bitcoin. I think it's ironic that Bitcoin is, as of today, it's a trillion and a half dollar asset. Isn't it ironic that we have SpaceX coming and it's about a trillion and a half asset? How can people justify buying a company that not only is not making money right now and

forget Elon. Let's leave it alone. He's great. But to make the comparison between Bitcoin and space, you're still buying something based on your future thought. And when I talk to people who love rocket investments and I go, how is that any different than Bitcoin? How do you have any idea on something that is more than three years out? How do you know the government won't take over SpaceX? How do you know there's there's no way to know what the future is going to look like when you're dealing with something that's based on going to Mars, which has never been done before. So when I think of investments and I think of the future, I have a belief in what I think will happen. I don't think investing in the S&P 500 is safe past 2030. I've said that repeatedly

because I think AI will disrupt all companies. So for me, I don't think Apple's safe. I don't think Google's safe. I don't think Amazon's safe. So when people look at Bitcoin and they don't think it's safe, I understand that that's their belief. The question is, have they thought a lot about the future because one of the reasons that I think Bitcoin is safe is because the consumer, human beings will not be consuming more than AI agents in a short amount of time. Now, one of the great things about, I know you know him and you go through, but one of the great things about Moonpay is the agentic side and being able to talk to someone who knows what's happening with AI agents and involved. It came out on X this week that there are more AI agents on HTML sites than humans.

like this is where we're headed so if you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce it's not it's ai agents so if you ask me what is a direct play on that i believe bitcoin is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward today's episode is brought to you by figure we're living in a world of higher for longer rates tighter credit and fewer places to earn real yield that's why figure is interesting figure is the largest non-bank HELOC lender in United States with over $22 billion unlocked for homeowners. They're now applying that same concept and innovation to crypto-backed loans and real-world asset yield. If you're holding crypto, which many of you are, Figured lets you borrow against it at 8.91% interest, that's 9.9%

APR, and it's got a 50% loan-to-value that gives you liquidity without selling, without triggering taxes, and without stepping out of the market. They use a decentralized MPC custody so assets stay in segregated wallets protected from rug pulls and they've introduced liquidation protection to help manage downside volatility and for investors looking for yield democratized prime offers up to nine percent apy paid hourly backed by real world private credit real cash flows not speculative token emissions figures building a new capital market on blockchain now you have access to the upside check them out using the link in the description go to figuremarkets.co slash pop. I agree with you that Bitcoin is a safer bet than any company, just given all of

the complexities, all the changes, et cetera, over, let's say, 20 years. Does that then mean if you get paid for the risk that you take, that companies should be more asymmetric and actually Bitcoin should not be asymmetric because it is, quote unquote, safer and therefore the return profile should be lower? No. Here's what I'll say is happening in the world today. And here's where I say Bitcoin actually set the framework for this. So what's another positive thing in Bitcoin? Well, this 50% crash has occurred with volatility collapsing. It's not been because of FTX. It's not like the volatility is going down. So Bitcoin is bleeding like 2% a week. It's not going down 15% in one day anymore. But every day we're watching the leading stocks in the stock

market move eight to 10% a day. Every single one of them, we're seeing individual stocks trading at the highest volatility relative to index vol that we've ever seen. And so this is a representation to me that the traders of the world, which are very zero date to expiration option related, they're very retail related. It's training people to get ready more for parabolas and bubbles and speed crashes, as I've written about. That is what I think we're in now. That means that Bitcoin is acceptable as an asset because one of the big negatives was it was too volatile. It's not too volatile anymore relative to the things that are making alpha in the market. So what I see happening is this exponential move, the agentic move is compressing

time. And one of the things when I spoke at the New York Stock Exchange this week that I highlighted to people, you have to understand that the MAG-7 went from $1 trillion to $20 plus trillion in basically a decade. Isn't that a bubble? It's a bubble, except for one thing. It just happened over a longer time period so if micron can go from 60 to 1100 and then it goes back to 600 and i'm not saying it's going to but if it does was it a bull market was it a bear market or was it both and that's what bitcoin and then all of a sudden maybe these aren't four-year cycles maybe these are now nine-month cycles and we've compressed the time and that's what a bubble is it's price versus time and i'll say it again and again ai is speeding up time the exponential age

is speeding up time at a pace we've never seen before. So there's a couple of pieces of this. First of all, we need more bubbles and we need more billionaires, which I think is two ideas. You're getting both of those. Yeah. Both of those ideas, I think, are very counterintuitive to people. But the bubbles bring capital. And you've mentioned that these companies need the capital to build out the infrastructure for what is going to be the future. Now, with Bitcoin, and I think that Micron and some of these other companies are now experiencing the same thing. And so I actually think that there's a very interesting historical analysis of crypto over the last 15 years or so. It may have been the best training ground to be an investor in any asset class, because what you essentially did is you compressed all these market cycles into a very short period of time. volatility was magnified in a way that, you know, the stat that I always tell people is

50% drawdown in public equities in the global financial crisis. Bitcoin has gone through that every 18 months for a decade, right? So you just see this stuff over and over. Now, the framework that I've used for Bitcoin, why does it go up and then crash, then go up and crash? It's very similar to like a mobile app. So if I created a mobile app with you, we want to go get users, we'd run a marketing campaign. A hundred people come in and sign up. Well, some portion of those people are not going to stay. They're going to churn. So let's say that 30 churn out. We're left with a net gain of 70 people. We run another marketing campaign, another 100 people come in, but 30 of those people churn out. Well, now we have 140 people who are left, right? And you keep

doing this. And that's basically what we've seen in Bitcoin is you get these big run-ups in price, a bunch of people pile in, you get it kind of bleeds out, some people leave, but you've converted new people. AI is starting to do this now. And I think that's where you see, even when you get these big moves and there's some drawdown, some portion of those people are not leaving, whether it's passive indexing, whether it's just, you know, longer term believers, et cetera. We are almost driving more capital into these businesses and they're setting new floors, even if there's volatility in it.

And to me, that becomes really interesting because as the companies get bigger and bigger, the dollars being invested are getting bigger, but also the productivity is accelerating, right? You've talked about Eli Lilly and a number of these companies where they're just good capital allocators and they're able to accelerate. And so actually in a weird way, the bubbles are necessary in order for us not only to build out the infrastructure, but it's also necessary to get capital to appreciate for the investor as well. Right. Yeah. And, and so the worst part about this, we were now at a point where when we say AI, let's, let's use forever Jensen

Nuong's five-layer cake. And let's just say that, okay, you got the chips, the energy, the infrastructure, the models, and the applications. The only thing that's been monetized or the only thing making money are the chips, the energy, and the infrastructure. There's a problem with that eventually. This is all about the build-out in preparation for it. And like I said, you eventually do have to get the revenues. There was an interesting interview with the head of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And he interviewed, I don't know the name of the CEO of IBM, but the IBM CEO. And the IBM CEO, who's obviously been involved with AI as long as anyone, I mean, Watson was before Google was even a company. He basically said, when you do

the math, and he went through it logically, he's like a data center now costs. And so people hear this. In the course of basically nine months, a data center for one gigawatt has gone from 50 billion. He was saying it's 60 to 80. And Jensen Yuang said in Computex this weekend, it'll very quickly be 80 to 100 billion. So you're talking about massive inflation in building this stuff. That's how bad the bottleneck situation is. And it just shows that, okay, how are we going to keep building this? Smart people are going to solve this. But what the guy said is at these costs for the gigawatts for, they're not going to be able to make the revenues. Now I've said repeatedly, this is not a bubble, but what I do agree with is that deep seek is in direct

competition with the model component of this. I'm not sure a generalist model anymore. You're going to be able to make the money. I don't think the adoption is going to happen on the enterprise side. You brought up Eli Lilly. The reason I believe Eli Lilly, and you can mark this down, we can go back to see it, has a chance to be the largest company in the world and the number one AI company in the world within five years is because they're building a specialized model. And I think eventually people have to realize that they have their own data center with a thousand GPUs with all of the data that Eli Lilly has had. This is a hundred and, what is it, 150 year old company. All the failures, all the successes, all of that data actually matters.

I've joked before that I don't know if an asset management company's data is as valuable as they think it is, but I know that all of these trials and things, they started from some intelligence place. And if you combine all this stuff and you combine it with AlphaFold, where they have a partnership with Isomorph, if you combine it with their NVIDIA co-innovation lab, if you combine it with TuneLab, which is their Google X, which means they allow people to use their data center effectively. And the only thing they get is the data, like they get the access to what's going on.

They are creating an innovation hub of using data all for human software. So if I think about who's going to get the revenues, well, if a drug company can make their entire process of getting FDA approval efficient, and at the same time, they can benefit by selling better drugs, well, they're getting revenue directly. That's an easy one for me to understand. The other ones I don't understand. So I think people have to realize that in this five-layer cake, we're kind of at the point where every dollar that's generating margins in the S&P 500 is commodity related that has

inflation. Until we start seeing the application, I think what the IBM CEO said on this, people should go listen to, I don't know if they're going to be able to get the revenues in as quickly as they need it. And that's the issue is if you have bottlenecks and you're spending all this money, you eventually need to get the revenues. And we've seen what Anthropix ARR looks like. The question is, if that slows for even a month, what are people going to do? You've been involved this a long time. If a company is growing rapidly and it's parabolic, if they tweak a little bit, think about what happened to OpenAI over the course of the last year. Oh, I was just going to say OpenAI showed us what happens there. So I want to talk about Eli Lilly

a little bit more in a second, but on this general versus specialized workflow, we have direct experience with this, right? We're building CFO Sylvia. We see the actual specialized workflows. And I'll tell you that there are, and I've been talking about this for a couple of months now, and I think finally it is cracking into the mainstream conversation. The single most important thing that I see happening in the AI industry is that the general purpose models were the default. No one knew how to build specialized workflows or any of this stuff. And so OpenAI came out, Anthropic started to push Claude. Everyone basically kind of mandate from heaven to their teams, go use AI. And people listened and they went. And we're now seeing reports of

whether it's Amazon or JP Morgan or Uber, they're all reporting that they blew through their token budgets in a single quarter for the entire year, stuff like that. But people are starting to question, are we getting the value for what we're spending? And they are as AI pilled as they come, but what they're trying to connect it back to is the ROI. And so what we saw at CFO Sylvia is that we actually gave token consumption to the user. So the user was in charge of how many times they queried, et cetera. So you essentially can think of that as you have uncapped upside for usage of the tokens, but we as a company had uncapped expenses because as much as the user want to use it. So then that forced us, if we want to keep costs under control, to go look at how do you

efficiently consume tokens? We have seen a significant reduction in the number of tokens that are used on a per query basis for certain things in the backend, all this kind of stuff. As we went through that process, I started to talk to many of my friends who run companies or have implemented some of this stuff. They're all going through the exact same thing. They're all trying to figure out if I'm spending hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year using some sort of AI system, how do I get the same output, but get a cheaper bill?

It's human nature. It's corporate incentive. And so now what I'm starting to see is all of these companies are becoming successful at doing it. And they're all sharing some of the best practices and the engineers

are all talking to each other. So in a weird way, it makes Anthropix revenue growth even more impressive that they are growing at the rate that they're going at the same time that every single one of their customers is trying to become more efficient

using their service, right? So you have like a per customer, per token revenue basis is coming down, but your overall revenue is growing so rapidly because the demand is just insatiable. So when I look at that, it does split the world into general purpose for specialized workflow. I think that finance, I think that healthcare, I think there's very specific areas where it's going to be incredibly difficult. And I think that the general purpose models have waved the white flag. They're admitting it because what are they doing? They're creating JVs,

they're creating internal teams, and they're basically saying, we need a biotech team. We need a team that's going to go and we're going to put a bunch of PE firms to go do accounting roll ups or whatever. And they're essentially saying that their general purpose models are not going to be able to compete on a specialized basis. And so a company like Eli Lilly that has a data advantage, has technical capabilities, they've got the infrastructure. It's not hard to see them beating whatever general purpose models are out there for their specific use case, right? Yes. And everything you said gets tied up in the same thing. So for Anthropic, the cost of building the ability of providing the tokens is going up dramatically. So they have to raise the cost. So users who are very smart are like, wait, I'm not paying for this. So then you start figuring out ways to not pay for it. So Gavin Baker on an interview about a year ago, sorry, about six months ago, it's amazing how fast this is. He literally said the bearish argument for all of the model providers is eventually going to be the edge. so the problem with the edge is the edge is coming sooner than what people think the data center build out and the the borrowing of money and the building of this stuff this is why i keep saying there is risk for every one of them when you when we talk about anthropic and it's 44 it's not 44 billion that's the arr so like i want to make sure people realize

going like this for three months does not ensure you'll be doing that for another three years and there's a lot of factors and you're naming if you go through all the factors you're saying so let me get their cost of providing that's going higher the the clients using it are like wait wait my budgets are too high this is too expensive i gotta figure ways to do it oh magically i don't need as many tokens anthropic doesn't care because they have a wait list for tokens so they're still growing but the issue is you're still playing with this game of like well we need more compute and they're out there racing to colossus and to google and trying to get all this stuff It just seems very clear to me that there's a problem with bottlenecks and shortages.

And oh, by the way, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. And I can't say this loud enough. The one thing about prediction markets that people need to pay attention to when you hear all these things of like the Strait will be reopened by whatever. If you believe that, then go bet on CalSheet, because right now for the Strait to completely reopen to normal by right before the midterms is less than 50 percent. So we're getting to the point where all of these bottlenecks are building. And as someone who's a macro person, who's focused on the situation of bottlenecks, I

want to focus on what Eli Lilly is doing, because you know what they don't depend on? Tokens. They spent the money on a thousand black wells to build a data center, to be able to take their data. And so you have to think real hard about why do they have an advantage? because they are printing money and they can build their own. And so for companies like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, they're going to have to make a choice at some point.

Do I want to pay Anthropic or is this a way to get started on this? Because they were nowhere seven months ago. And that's what I think is happening. There's a combination of hoarding on the hardware side. There's FOMO on both the model side, but also on the enterprise side, because Goldman doesn't want to fall behind. Morgan doesn't want to fall behind Bank of America or JP Morgan. So they all have to start spending money because they're like,

we have to do something on this. Oh my gosh, Opus and Claude make it easier than OpenAI. Let's get rid of ChatGPT. But ChatGPT enterprise was the biggest thing a year ago. So I think people are overestimating this and that's why the IBM interview is so important to me. I recently saw one person online say that they have completely eradicated the use of Claude internally and they've gone to DeepSeek v4 and they believe that not only does it save them a lot of money, but they also think that it is a better performance in terms of accuracy, latency, et cetera. Now it will be very interesting to watch over the next 30 to 60 days. If more people do not start saying as part of this, Hey, what are we getting for the token bill that we're

receiving? Can I get away with using an open source model that maybe we fine tune a little bit and get 90%, maybe even better performance than what I'm getting here with Claude. Now, I actually think that this is a pie expanding exercise. And so Anthropic is going to continue to do well. OpenAI will continue to do well. I think XAI is very underrated in terms of their ability to kind of come out of nowhere and start to get adoption. I also think that whether it's Eli Lilly, Revolut is a business that here in the United States, people don't really talk about a lot, but it is kind of the Robin Hood of Europe. They probably wouldn't like that term, but just think of them that way as a retail brokerage. They've built their own model and they've used their own data to be able to do it. And so you go and you look at this and you say, at the end of the day, what people are

always going to be incentivized to do is control as much of the stack as possible. And if you have a model, whether it started as open source that you fine-tuned and you trained, or you are able to actually go and do it probably similar to what Eli Lilly did, you are going to have such a competitive advantage. It's no different than why are you spending so much money going to every college campus trying to find the smartest new people? You're looking for intelligence, right? Well, what if there is synthetic intelligence that is better than anybody at any college? When I started to think about that, I said, no wonder young people are having a hard time trying to find a job. Because people are saying,

I can go and I can get this same intelligence in a different way. I don't have to do recruiting. I don't have to do all this stuff. Now, with that said, the young people are getting smart. And what are they doing? They're learning how to use the tools. And so you get this ever-moving dynamic environment where everyone is trying to take a snapshot of the market.

And they want everything to be black and white. Anthropic is winning. Open AI is losing. Closed source versus open source. Young people can't find a job. Eli Lilly is screwed, right? Like whatever the snapshot in time is, people start to extrapolate these kind of hardened thoughts.

And my conclusion over the last couple of weeks is the single most important thing you can do right now is to remain with incredible flexibility mentally, because it is changing very quickly. And if you try to take that static snapshot, you are going to be wrong three weeks later. And so you've got to stay informed. You've got to continue to update kind of your mental models here. And if you do that, that's the best way to kind of navigate all this. Yeah.

The only thing I would add in, and I don't know if you've felt this and we didn't talk about it, but, um, the LLMs are now commoditized. And what I mean by commoditized, the price is not zero, but the difference between, and I won't say all of them, but I will say Claude and ChatGPT, they're indistinguishable to me in terms of now being able to use them. And I got into a conversation with someone we both know this week who had just gotten off a plane and mentioned something they did and i said oh i don't really use claude as much and i was the person that said you really have to use claude not chat gpt so people are starting to ask me like are you using codex and chat gpt and i'm like yeah that's my model that's it now now i'm using both of them

but the reason i say they're commoditized is when you interview someone and this is the easiest way for for we've both been in the seat let's assume that you had four piece two pieces of information for each of them. Their grades in school, they both went to the exact same college. They both finished with perfect scores. Their SATs exactly the same and their IQ exactly the same. Now you're going to pick the person not based on that then. You're going to pick it based on the nuances that match with you, what you're looking for, because they're not going to be the same person. They might have exactly the same scores on everything, which is where I believe the LLMs are now, at least for ChatGPT and Claude. Now maybe Claude is slightly better at coding, but I'm not really

sure about that anymore either. I'm building stuff in Codex every day and I'm working on a very long project, the longest one I've ever worked on. And I'm doing it in Cursor and Codex. I'm just going back and forth between the two. And it's, I'm doing, because this one is something for the subscribers that to me is really cool. And it's breaking, it's creating a new structure in terms of, in terms of the way I look at the market, but I, it's indistinguishable. So the reason I've chose ChatGPT 5.5 is because it is the better brainstorming partner for me. And when I meet intelligent people and I love to meet someone who can always put things in my head that I hadn't thought about, they could speak for an hour and only two things enter, but those two

jewels are worth so much to me. ChatGPT does it all the time. Claude almost never does it for me anymore. And when I say never, it may sound like an exaggeration, but for me, it's not. I just believe that the critical things that make my brain go, oh my gosh, happen more in GPT 5.5. And it's not a reflection of the model's abilities. It's a reflection of how it responds to me and can almost feel what I'm looking for better than Claude. It's better at anticipating what Jordy wants. And that's why I've migrated back towards it. All right, guys, let's talk about something that's actually moving the needle in crypto right now. And that's my guys over at ArchPublic.

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love for you to elaborate, which is peptides are the API key for the human body. Now, I have learned throughout my life that there are two types of experts in the world. There are medical doctors. Yes. And then there are the bro scientists. The bro scientists have been very right for a long time. They are the ones who were talking about everyone should be taking creatine. They are the ones who were talking about, you know, saunas and cold plunges and, you know, all of that type of stuff they have been on the peptide train for a while now and it feels like the rest of the world is now saying oh peptides that's interesting and the bros scientists are saying you know come into the warm water we've been here a while yep what is a peptide why is it the api key for

the human body so i want to take a step back from just answering this for people at this point um you made a comment which i agree with and this is the way wall street has been separated people who are not scientists never enter the biotech and pharma world as an investor and because you can't understand the science but for some reason we all became experts at technology and we think like we know exactly what goes on in a computer and moore's law and everything else and the reason we became experts at it is because that was the way we all made money so we all own nvidia we all go through this so what i know i know what a gpu is yeah i i i the funny thing is why would people know what an api key is so an api key and a peptide

are basically ways to enter into something with a receptor meaning i want to do this i want to take my data from this software that I pay for. I use my API key. So it's a door into something. So the easiest way to do this is for people to learn that GLP-1s are peptides. Peptides are growing exponentially. So if you had Chris Camillo sitting across from you and he was doing all his TikTok analysis at nighttime and we said, are peptides big? He'd be like, peptides are huge. How do I make money on peptides? Okay. It was a lot of private companies, but the reality is when you start spending time, well, GLP-1 is the king of peptides and its growth is enormous, but it's only serving a very small portion.

I can't think of a scenario where whatever your view is of GLP-1s, peptides is now kind of what they've been replaced with. GLP-1s are a little scary to people, but peptides, everyone seems to be migrating towards because now they're on every podcast. Now everyone's talking about them. Google Trends, it's going through the roof. I can't go in any kind of setting without hearing it. I worked out today, the person at the desk, I know what her job is and she's a health

coach. She deals with nutrition. Before I could finish saying peptide and I said, what percentage of the people that you have as clients every single day come into and talk about pep? And she went, everybody. And she said, this is never ending. And she went, if you're talking about GLP-1s, more than 50% of my clients are on GLP-1s. Now, again, this is Manhattan.

Are they doing it for weight loss or are they doing it for other non-weight loss reasons? At this point, the majority of them are for weight loss. They're not, but she does have a lot of diabetic clients and she does have a lot of pre-diabetic clients. So I don't want to be, it's people have money that can afford to pay for these things because they're there, but they're growing rapidly. The thing is what Eli Lilly and the reason this is so important. So if the decade of 2009 to 2020 was about the app store and API keys, you could argue

that API keys were the key to all of the money made by the mag seven. I believe the pharma industry with peptides has locked into something where again, whether it's gene editing, any way you want to go, we're getting to the software side of the body. We're actually getting to the point of understanding this does this to someone. So Eli Lilly has data that is unexplained for them. And if you listen to David Ricks, he'll say, we knew it was losing weight. We knew it was helping with diabetes.

What we didn't understand is why is addiction going down? Why is this going down? They're getting to the part and they've been doing metabolic disease focused for 100 years. So now we're getting to the point of actually getting to the root cause of problems as opposed to the treatment of problems. And if you get to the root cause of problems through peptides and through receptors, you're now getting into the point where you're putting an API key into the human body to deal with something.

This is the beginning of a massive trend, because if it wasn't for AI, in my opinion, we're still kind of guessing and going through a long process. But AI helps speed up the process. I'll give you something we didn't talk about. So, you know, there's different phases of trials. So very recently, I think in the last month, maybe it was two months, Eli Lilly stopped disclosing phase one trials they're working on, which is when they're actually using human beings for this.

They won't disclose it anymore. Why wouldn't you disclose it anymore? Well, because it's much easier to catch up to IP if you have AI. If you're doing this and disclosing it, it was for investors because they want investors to be focused on it. Well, now what they're worried about is competition. Competition is about AI. So what we're watching in front of our face is human software.

The TAM market for obesity in the world is between $200 and $300 billion. That's a big TAM. And it's very little of it right now is being accessed because of the cost of this and the fact that you can't get insurance. But if you find ways to make them and what they're working on is one treatment as opposed to every single month. Pill, not shot. Like we watch all this stuff and that's what they're focused on.

And they are buying companies almost every single week. And in some weeks they're buying multiple companies. But if you go through, they're all connected to the parts of the diabetes side that GLP-1s, that they've seen some kind of impact, whether it's kidneys, whether it's cancers, whether it's all this. You're talking to someone who didn't know any of this six months ago, but I wrote a paper in October when I get fixated on something, I keep going. And the reason I'm talking about it today, people, is because I believe we are seeing

signs of a top in hardware. Not that they're going to go down and not that this is a crash, but you look for rotations to where the market narrative shifts. And I think the market narrative is shifting from the chips, infrastructure, energy side of the cake, and it's moving up to the application side. And I think the best application for this is going to be on the human software side. So one of the aspects that I became very interested in is the second I heard the GLP-1s could help with addiction and the data point that really hammered at home was that some of the

hedge funds on Wall Street were requiring people to not take GLP-1 because it took away some of the risk-taking genes, the risk-taking component, was everyone is looking at GLP-1s as a physical body, weight loss, et cetera, impact. What happens when this hits the drug and alcohol addiction market? I don't know where people are yet in terms of actually being able to do that from a pure medical standpoint? Will insurance dollars be able to be used, et cetera? But if you're telling me that there is now something that can be injected that will help solve that problem, and it maybe is matched with recovery centers or rehab or whatever, that is a very big market. That is a market that not only would have a profound positive impact on society,

but there will be very big businesses built there. And so I think that to me is what's interesting here is you're talking about this like api key for the human body but it seems like a lot of these peptides they're not just single application we're starting to see okay it can do weight loss it can do addiction it can do whatever it's one single drug right or peptide when we look at the cholesterol shot my guess is it does other things as well right and has certain impacts on people's body and so as you see this kind of roll out here it feels like we understand maybe the first order impact, but we yet do not understand what else can these things do. And so it's a perfect example of a market that continues to expand as we better understand

the technology. As an investor, what else do you want? It's already a big TAM. And oh, by the way, you know, it's kind of like the SpaceX TAM slide. You know, we have rocket launch, we have Starlink, enterprise AI, right? Same thing's going to happen here in healthcare, right? Yeah. And for people, I mean, we're, we're, we're almost at 20% of personal expenditures in the country each year or healthcare. We're getting close to that. It grows every single year because of demographics and because of the health of the country. So we all realize it's a huge market. I don't think people fully grasp how big the market is, but forget housing, forget all this stuff like health expenditures or what you want to focus your attention on. So if you can get a

piece of that pie. It's great. Second thing, when you talked about addiction, people hear the word side effect and they think it's something negative. Well, these side effects of addictions going down, these are just one of the things that are coming that they can now go study. So I believe what Eli Lilly has figured out is side effects now become something very useful to go investigate as to why this is having an impact. This is different than spending an enormous amount of years to get a drug that treats something as opposed to a peptide, which is there to make the body act differently. And that's the thing people have to realize is if they go spend the time and for everyone listening, I did this on my weekly video. I highly recommend listening to an interview

on YouTube with David Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly and Jensen Yuan. They're partners. Eli Lilly is partners with NVIDIA. That should be enough for people to be interested because he's had a pretty high hit ratio. But if you listen to the interview, you'll learn more about why GLP-1s are so important and why peptides are so important. And you'll get a sense as to where Eli Lilly is going with this. So I think as everyone thinks about this more and they get through how big the market can be, how it'll go, they're going to get back to one other important issue. I've never worried about the debt of the country, despite all the doom and gloom that's out there, because the household net worth of the country is five times the size of the debt of the country. So yes,

the government has a bad balance sheet, but the household balance sheet is phenomenal. but entitlements are a major issue that are going to be an issue. But what makes up the bulk of entitlements? When you get through Medicare and Medicaid and you're dealing again with the health of the country, if we're going to get to the point with peptides, but also with gene editing, with mRNA, every single thing, if we're going to get to the point where people are going to die healthy as opposed to die sick, that has a huge impact on the entitlement issue. And that's where, again, I don't think looking out five years, people should think that any business that they've invested in is safe. I don't think they should think that they're going to die.

The reason I spend so much time trying to be healthy today is because I'm not sure they're going to be able to reverse my age. So I want to stay the same age for as long as I can, or at least have the Delta be, be shrinking. So I think the healthcare side is something people need to think more about. Watch Eli Lilly stock just because number one, it is a trillion dollar company. Number two, believe it or not, it's been kind of consolidating to a very high degree for the last 18 months so you have no clue as to what the impact the glp1s are and neither did i until this past week victoria secret put their earnings out there the stock was up 47 percent earlier this week they reported 15 sales growth in uh i think q1 directly attributable or in a large part to

GOP ones, people are losing weight. Bedroom fashion is back, I guess. The second order effects here on some of these businesses, everyone was talking about our fast food company is going to come under pressure, but there's the positive stories as well. And so it does feel like this is going to kind of infiltrate out into the U.S. economy in a bunch of ways that maybe we didn't predict before. Yeah. And I think, again, the main point here for people to think about is this is what limited access. So I remember when I first wrote something about GLP-1s, which was probably four years ago now. And it was when originally it was becoming kind of a big theme where everyone was talking about, but it was when it was starting to impact

the consumer staples companies. And I remember people asked me the question because people say, what do you think? And doctors were already telling me this is like a miracle drug. And most people thought it was bad. And the doctors, some of which were family members, were like, Jordy, you have to understand for every 10 people that I take care of, seven of them can't go on trips to Disney. They can't do things with their family. This is changing their ability to live their life. And are there side effects? Yes, but they're going to live a healthier life going forward. So what you're talking about now is four years later, the technologies have gotten better. They're still getting better. The weight loss percentage is getting higher. The muscle mass loss is going down.

The ability for people to take these less often and not in shot form is increasing, and it's only going to get better. So a lot of the things, and again, I'm writing a paper on this on Eli Lilly. I can't possibly describe to you all of the strategic purchases they've made of other companies. So if you go back to what was happening with the mag seven, what were they doing? Buying Instagram, but like they were buying companies, they were buying API keys. So what's Eli Lilly doing?

They're making so much money from this one drug that they're taking the cash to build a data center to like, this is the greatest story you could ever want to hear. And like I said, tune lab is basically Google X their co-innovation lab out in Silicon Valley with NVIDIA, co-innovation lab with NVIDIA is to speed up health and it's to attract talent from Stanford and the people that are graduating out there to make sure that when they have a choice and they're like, do I want to go work for a software company or do I want to go work for a human software company? All of this stuff is happening and I can already see the supersonic tsunami of healthcare is

approaching. And so I think there's going to be more and more Victoria's Secret stories going forward. What are you going to put in your video this week? there's obviously going to be a lot of Eli Lilly and teasing out some of the things that I said here. There's going to be a lot on my belief that the IPOs that are coming to the market, that people are underestimating what they signal. The Google, what the $85 billion, why Berkshire buying it? Why that says something too, that a company that's been raising cash decides, oh, we'll take $10 billion of a company that's up 120% year over year.

A lot of stuff going on in the market that I think people need to be paying attention to. And again, I'm going to say that this is not a bubble. The title of my video last week is We Will Crash, which was a play on Andrew Ross Sorkin. But the rotation to me is going to happen, and I'd be focused on companies there. And I will emphasize one other point, too. We talked about the human software side. I'm not going to emphasize the importance of crypto and tokenization on the financial guardrails, but that is the other software side that if I'm right for the second half

of the year, when if and when Bitcoin breaks through the 200 day moving average, if and when, maybe it's two years from now, maybe it's three years from now, maybe it goes to zero before then. I don't know. But once it does, I believe we're entering a new phase where the software that people are choosing is for the human body and for the financial guardrails, because AI agents are both that part of software. I love it. We have three asks of the audience today. Three. I mean, look, you know, it's getting to be summertime. We got three of them. The first is go search on YouTube for Jordy Visser and subscribe to his channel so you can watch his weekly video. Every Sunday it comes out. It's amazing. He has more charts than you

can ever imagine. It's very informative and I think you'll learn a lot. The second thing is that we want you to go to Jordy Visser 22V Research. And how many pieces are you putting out a week right now? I'm putting out two pieces a week, but then I'm also putting in a bunch of models for trading and stuff like that this guy writes so much i can't read it he's getting out of hand here you're gonna have to put a speed limit on them um so 22v research jordy visser or if you want to use ai to better manage your portfolio you can go to cfo sylvia.com you can sign up there for free so go subscribe to jordy on youtube go listen to or uh subscribe to 22v research or go sign up for cfo sylvia.com if you do those three things we'll be happy guys you know

we don't ask for much around here, but those three things will be very helpful and we'll see you guys next week. See ya.