August 1st, 2022. The Inflation Reduction Act Will Actually Increase Inflation. Ukrainian Wheat Might Hit Finally Foreign Shores Again.

00:03 It's August 1st. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, Joe Biden's $370 billion climate bill just got a thumbs down from fact checkers saying that his numbers don't add up. I'll share those findings, plus why this is a very bad sign for governing our country. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, today is a big day for the wheat wars. Ukraine's first ship of agricultural goods set sail into open waters. I'll explain what to look for and why it matters.

00:44 Second, America's top diplomat is off to Africa next week to Rwanda and the Congo. Savvy listeners might remember why those two nations are so important. It has to do with batteries, we'll discuss. And finally, one last thing before I let you go, a question from Rick in New Mexico. He asked if my working for the CIA changed my daily habits, like how I drive, or how it changed my view of the world. Those are great questions and I've got answers, but first, let's get started with today's main brief. Late last week, you may have seen the headlines about the Inflation Reduction Act. Now, if that doesn't ring a bell, maybe this will.

01:26 There is a $370 billion bill that offers up massive tax credits for solar panels. and wind turbines, billions for the post office to buy electric trucks. In other words, it's a climate change bill, and we talked about that last week. Now, if you're scratching your head on this one, asking, is it a climate change bill or is it an inflation reduction bill? Well, the Democrat authors are saying both. Their logic is that by reducing your energy bill with these renewable technologies, that'll lower inflationary pressures.

02:01 Well, as you can imagine, critics of the bill weren't buying that argument. They said that it's nothing but an election year messaging ploy, using the words Inflation Reduction Act, hoping that that might trick voters into thinking that this bill will help their pocketbooks. So who's right? Is it the Democrats or their critics, especially Republicans? Well, it turns out in this case that the critics were right, at least on the inflation bit.

02:28 The University of Pennsylvania's Warden Business School, ran the numbers on this new $370 billion bill. And here is what they found. Quote, the Inflation Reduction Act would very slightly increase inflation until 2024, end quote. Oh dear. Some more bad news for Democrats in this independent assessment. The folks at Penn Wharton said that the bill would not lower the deficit by the $300 billion figure as Democrats promised. But instead, best case scenario,

03:01 less than $100 billion, maybe. One last very important thing on this assessment. So it's true that anybody can offer up their opinion or their analysis on this bill and probably come up with whatever they'd like. But this assessment is unique. And that's because one of the key authors of this $370 billion bill, that's of course Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, in the past, he has only looked at this school's assessment of costs and benefits to determine how he will vote. In fact, he has usually ignored

03:36 the government's own estimates in favor of whatever comes out of the University of Pennsylvania. Well, so far, there's been no response from Mansion or the Democrats on this development out of Pennsylvania, but I will keep you posted when or if they do. But stepping back for a moment, it's actually quite remarkable. The Biden White House is trying to sell America. on an inflation reduction bill that actually increases inflation. And when you actually look at the text of the bill, it has nothing to do with inflation at all. Instead, it's focused on renewable energy and allegedly climate change. And yet, it's not especially good at doing that either.

04:19 As you'll recall from my brief last Tuesday, Democrats are saying that this bill will reduce our carbon emissions by 40%. But they're failing to say that America is already on track to reduce. our carbon emissions by 20% without this bill. So you're getting a 20% reduction, not 40, at a cost of $370 billion. But, you know, that's not quite true either. As we talked about last week, China and others in Asia are increasing their carbon dioxide emissions, which negates our decreases. Ah, one last falsehood here. You may recall from my brief a couple of weeks ago when Joe Biden and his cabinet secretaries were saying that switching to solar panels and windmills is really

05:04 about national security because we can control our energy production and not be at the mercy of oil dictators. Now, that is fake news, of course. The solar panels are mostly made by Asian nations, not Americans, and the offshore windmills require foreign ships and foreign crews to install them. Plus, the batteries to store all that energy are overwhelmingly manufactured in China, and analysts predict that that won't change for at least 20 years. So all told, the only thing truthful in all of this is that this bill will cost taxpayers $370 billion. The point of all of it, well, that remains elusive. But that's actually the bigger story here. If I were in the White House this morning, I'd pull you aside less for a brief and more as a friend who's worried. I'd offer the

06:00 observation that folks in Washington, D.C., from the White House on down, are lying about everything, it seems, and not just in the typical way that we are all used to. I mean for stuff big and small, and at a scale that's very unusual. So let's talk examples. Do you remember when the recession numbers came out last week? I briefed. you on how the Biden administration was redefining the word recession from the classical definition, which is six months of lower economic activity, to a new set of numbers that can take up to a year to determine if a recession is even happening. It's transparent here, I think, what they're doing. They are lying about the data that say we are in a recession, but we can all see it. So why lie about

06:49 something so obvious? Or how about the brief that I gave you on the CIA director saying that he was proud of his team's assessment that Afghanistan could sustain itself against the Taliban for upwards of a year, even though Kabul collapsed within a week? He said that he is still proud of that failed assessment. Again, why lie about success when it was so obviously a failure? Now, we could probably toss in the COVID vaccines here too. Remember, Joe Biden said last to say, last December and July, that the vaccines could stop infection, which he knew was a lie when he said it both times. The science was and is settled on that. The COVID vaccines do not stop infection. So why keep lying about it when it's so obvious that it's a lie? Look, I could go on and on here,

07:40 but that's actually the point. Something uniquely strange is happening. There are so many lies coming out of Washington, D.C., about so many things in such an outlandish way, that it feels like we're not that far from the government telling you that up is actually down, that the sky is green, and that bugs are delicious to eat. So I don't know what precisely is going on here, but I want you to start watching for this trend, and here's why. When lying becomes so widespread in a government and in a culture, when it's obvious that people are lying, but no, really cares anymore, it becomes really hard to govern. And that's because governing requires facts. In other words, the facts say, hey, we have a problem, so now let's talk solutions. But you

08:30 can't do that when your leadership is lying all the time about everything. So the facts don't matter at that point, do they? Truth isn't truth. Instead, you have a country and a government built on my truth and your truth. Now, we used to call that opinion, I believe something or you believe something, but that was not truth or facts. They were feelings. Important?

08:56 Yes, absolutely. But that's what we have now increasingly, governance by feelings. And when that happens, when you abandon facts, you call a bill an inflation reduction act when it actually increases inflation and has nothing to do with inflation, actually.

09:14 Well, then you've lost reason and discourse, and instead you've gained a new set of rules for governing. Whoever can stir up the most feelings, incite the biggest mob, well, that's who wins. That's how you govern. But I will tell you, friends, that is not a nation that lasts very long. Coming up, a closer look at what's on my radar. The latest out of Ukraine Plus, a trip by America's,

09:41 senior diplomat to the Congo and Rwanda. We'll be right back. Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamava's history.

10:01 Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29th. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at Yamava.com. SB 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion. As always on the PDB, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, big news today in the Wheat Wars. The very first ship of agricultural products left Ukraine

10:28 for the open market. 26,000 metric tons of corn headed for Lebanon. First stop, though, is the Turkish city of Istanbul. That is where an inspection center has been set up, which is basically a collaborative office run by the United Nations, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia, all of them inspecting each ship that leaves full of corn and wheat. Plus, they will inspect ships when they come back empty. So if this ship clears inspection in Istanbul, it'll be a very important day for not only Ukraine, but for the world. Now, you will recall from previous briefs where we talked about why this day is so important. For Ukraine, agricultural crops like wheat and corn account for more than 40% of the country's exports. That's over 68 billion in revenue, and it employs about 15% of the

11:17 population. But very little of those crops have been getting out because of the war in Ukraine and the naval blockade levied by the Russians. It's also an important day for other countries too, like Lebanon. In that nation, they have been deeply reliant on Ukrainian wheat and corn, but there's been no supply. That's led to ongoing protests and long lines at bakeries just in the last week. in fact, a lot of violence with very hungry people growing increasingly desperate. And that actually speaks to why you and I should care about this first ship out of Ukraine. Not only for humanitarian reasons, but some of these countries in desperate need are important trade partners of ours. And if their people or their economies are suffering without

12:01 weed or corn, our exporting companies suffer too. That's because we can't sell these countries, like Lebanon, our products and services. So let's hope for good news today with some worry, and you can probably guess why. Yeah, Vladimir Putin. Quote, there are a few hitches, a few issues being discussed with the Russians, end quote. So said Turkey's presidential spokesman yesterday. No details on what those last minute hitches might be, or if they'll stop that first ship from leaving Istanbul, which is slated for Wednesday or Thursday.

12:36 By the way, there shouldn't be any hitches at this point. it's been a week since the parties reached a deal. There was even one test run by a dummy ship to ensure that there were no mines floating about. Plus, insurance companies wanted to make sure that there wouldn't be any issues. I'm really nervous about ensuring these agricultural ships knowing that they'd have to sail through waters with lots of things that could go boom. Well, that potential for unwelcome explosions is also causing some potential crew members to look elsewhere for jobs. Apparently, not many people are signing up because they are afraid that

13:09 they're going to be torpedoed or blown up. I can't say that I blame these poor fellows for being nervous. Still, fingers crossed for a successful week. One final note here, especially for you farmers, if the Russians decide to play games and the deal falls apart, look for a pretty big jump in prices, especially in wheat. They've actually come down lately. It's still high, but not the record that they were,

13:33 but all of that changes if this wheat war flares back up. I'll keep you posted as always. And now for your second radar brief. America's top diplomat is off to Africa next week. Now, I'm going to tell you the countries involved, and you tell me why our Secretary of State is probably going there. So you ready? Got those maps out of Africa.

13:56 The countries are Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Any guesses of why our Secretary of State might be going there? Well, if you're a longtime PDB listener, you probably know why already, but if you're still thinking on it, let's talk about what the State Department would have you believe based on their press release. On August 9th and 10th, the Secretary of State will travel to the Congo where he is supposed to talk about human rights, combating corruption, and supporting trade and investment. Then he travels to next door Rwanda, where he will discuss how to reduce violence in eastern Congo. So put those two pieces together,

14:38 stopping first in the Congo to discuss trade and investment, and then to Rwanda, to discuss reducing violence in eastern Congo. And that tells us what this trip is probably about, and that is mining. As we've discussed before, Congo has lots of minerals in the eastern and southern part of that country, minerals that the world very much needs, from tin to gold to cobalt. Cobalt is critical for manufacturing batteries, and upwards of 70% of the world supply of cobalt comes from the Congo. And batteries are really, really important if, hypothetically, you're trying to bankrupt the oil and gas industry, start a new energy economy around solar and wind, and keep it all chugging along with good batteries. Yes, that's right. America needs Congo's cobalt and other minerals,

15:31 but there are two problems. First, half of Congo's supply of cobalt, is already controlled by the Chinese. Meanwhile, other minerals, well, those are illegally mined by the Rwandans. So we need to make some friends in Kinshasa, that's the capital of the Congo, where the president and Congress work and live. The second problem to securing Congo's minerals, it's war. That same region with lots of mining activity in north and south Kivu provinces, well, that happens to be a real mess of tribal warfare and regional battles between neighboring countries. I briefed you before on the rebel group called M23, for example. That's backed by Rwanda, but opposed by the Congo, and they are causing all kinds of havoc. Since the last time

16:22 that I briefed you, a peace agreement between the Congo and Rwanda has largely fallen apart. There are UN peacekeepers in the region, but they can't stop anything. In fact, UN leadership, has said that their 12,000 strong force are no match for the Ragtag M23 Rebel Group. All to say that our Secretary of State is keen to settle that fight, all to ensure that it doesn't spread to the key cobalt areas in the southern province of Katanga. By the way, a quick observation here, I thought that renewable energy was supposed to get us away from dealing with dictators and foreign wars, but here we are. Anyway, I'll be watching this closely because however this shakes out, it'll have a

17:02 direct impact on your wallet and America's ability to keep its lights on and its electric cars humming. More to come. And with that, one more thing before I let you go. Rick from New Mexico asked if working for the CIA changed my daily habits, like how I drive, and whether or not it changed my view of the world. So excellent questions from Rick, and I will share those details right after this. Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. One more thing before I'm I'd let you go. The new segment debuted last week of your questions and comments and holy smokes are you all writing in with some excellent ones. I have tons of messages that I'm going through and I am responding as quickly as I can. Keep them coming and be a little bit patient. I'm on it.

17:50 Meanwhile, Rick from New Mexico wrote in and he asked about the brief from a few Fridays ago where I told you about my career at the CIA. So he wrote, Dear Brian, awesome show, loved learning about how you got started at the CIA. Now that you are out, or maybe you're not, can you tell us if it changed your daily habits in any unexpected or weird ways? And when you're looking at the news, do you look at the world differently? If so, how? I want to learn. Rick, great questions. Thank you for writing. So the short answer is yes, yes, and yes. So first, I am absolutely out of the CIA, which I know that you would probably expect someone to say if they were still in the CIA but wanted to pretend that they were out. But still, trust me, I am out of the family, as they say. Still, from my time there, I would

18:40 say, yeah, I'm definitely a very different man than had I stayed at the family farm. So let's talk first about how it's changed my daily habits. If you talk to folks like me and especially my buddies in the special forces community, we will tell you that we are just more alert, like human border collies. We just spend a lot more mental energy actively observing and creating contingency plans. For me, you definitely see that in my driving. I'm very intentional with what lanes I choose and how close I am to vehicles around me. I position my car based on where I need to ram someone, either in front of me or beside me, and then the roads that provide for the best escape. I'm also very mindful of cars and people who've been watching me for a little bit too long.

19:28 Classically, that's known as spotting surveillance, you know, seeing someone trying to catch you being a spy, but it's also watching for criminals or terrorists trying to do you harm. So if I get a weird sense that something's off, I will absolutely change course and spend a good chunk of time to ensure that no one's around. The other thing that I and my Special Forces buddies agree on generally is that we are not super fond of concerts. We typically don't enjoy ourselves, or frankly, it's hard for us to relax. And that's because it's a closed area, jam-packed with people, generally few exits. And so we spend far too much of our time looking for areas to hunker down in case of an attack

20:12 or escape routes with hunker-down areas along the way. So case in point, I went with family members to an Elton John concert. So let's just say that it was a very low, threat environment. I was the only person under 40 as far as the eye could see. But I was anxious from start to finish of that concert, constantly looking, constantly planning. It was not a relaxing experience. So absolutely, working in the CIA has changed how I exist in a given day. Now, the second part of your question is, has it changed how I viewed the world? And if so, how? And my goodness, yes. So to boil this down, Rick, the world is run by the ruthless and the corrupt. And frankly, I don't care what country you pick. It's almost all ruthless and corrupt.

21:02 That means the good leadership, or at least good American leadership, has to have two competing qualities. So the first, honor. You have to uphold rules and laws inside the United States and hold yourself to high standards. So the way that I've always thought about honor is, would my granny be proud of me for doing whatever it is I'm about to do? So for me, that's been a pretty good way to know whether or not I'm going to be doing something that's honorable. And yet, the flip side of that in many ways is that you have to be ruthless. You have to understand that you have no friends, only interests. And that that means sometimes your friend on one issue will be your adversary on another. And it also means that you might have to break some rules.

21:47 and break some noses to get leaders abroad to respect you. And you have to be vicious in doing so. And that doesn't feel very honorable at times. I think that the American leader who best understood this tension was President Teddy Roosevelt. Now, his foreign policy was based on this idea that America should speak softly, but carry a big stick. And I really honor that. You know, you lead with a servant's heart, with honor, but you pull out that club and crack some skulls as necessary.

22:20 Look, as always, I wish that everything could be resolved with diplomats, and they are certainly a key component of good American leadership. But that world of diplomatic peace doesn't work without the fear of American brutality. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32.

22:58 And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day.