The Press Box - Abdul El-Sayed Wins the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary

Episode Date: August 5, 2026

Today on The Press Box, Bryan and David react to the contentious Democratic Senate primary race in Michigan between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in which El-Sayed claimed the narrow victory. They talk about what El-Sayed's victory means, all the think pieces that will come out of this race, cable news coverage, and more. Hosts: Bryan Curtis and David Shoemaker Producers: Isaiah Blakely and Jon Jones Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Conditions apply. Visit scotiabank.com slash h-I-SA to learn more. Scotia Bank, you're richer than you think. Hello, media consumers, and welcome to a special episode of the press box where we react to last night's Michigan Senate primary. Brian Curtis, David Shoemaker, producers Isaiah Blakely and John Jones here. David, after hours and hours and hours of counting,

we can say this about the race between Abdul El Sayyad and Haley Stevens. Your Twitter feed was probably right. God, what a thing to say. As of 9 a.m. Eastern, when we pushed record, Elsaid is leading Stevens by less than a point, with 95% of the vote counted. NBC News declared Elsaid the winter last night around 2 a.m. Decision Descq. H.Q.

declared in the winter this morning, about 30 minutes before we started recording. Other news organizations, including the AP, have been more cautious. I noticed morning Joe greeted a very tired Elsaid this morning as the likely nominee. So what do we make of all that? It's Elsaid, probably, but it's very close. I'm glad he got up to the morning Joe. It's the kind of stars they're just like us category,

politics category, right? We've got to wake up really to do a podcast, and he's feeling our pain too. I noticed he was wearing a suit rather than the usual black V-neck t-shirt. Oh, really? Maybe he's like the reverse, like he has like the Mr. Rogers thing. He sleeps in the suit and just does public appearances in the V-neck. Yeah, I mean, watching all the coverage last night across all the channels,

it um well we can there's a lot of ways we can go with this it did sort of feel when they both gave their speeches last night that it was that everybody was both campaigns thought it was leaning else i had um but it was just so close and um you know it's like this is it's obviously the decision desks or at least the public facing aspect parts of the decision desks are are are going to be leery to call anything this close, especially when it's this contested, when it's this much. I mean, we had, you know,

multiple news networks that were on last night basically covering this race. You know, everything else was an afterthought. And I'm not saying they were trying to string out the drama. I just think they had to be sure they got it really, really right. Like you said, as we're recording, it's 0.97% of, you know, of the vote. I mean, it's just an incredibly close race.

I think the cable networks would have loved to have called this at 11 o'clock last night. John King over on CNN was frustrated at the big board with how slow Wayne County was getting in its results, which was pretty predictable. But early on, I feel Wayne County was stuck at 2%. Yeah, it was very, very slow. On MSNBC, there were a number of times where people asked Ali Valsh who was at the big board a question. His response was good question, you know, which is. like not exactly the mode of the person running the big board. They're supposed to have all the,

especially Ali Valshii, who's just like a walking robot, you know? I mean, but yeah, it was just so tight, just so tight. And kind of, and really consistent throughout the night, right? I mean, I guess that's not too shocking when you look at the way they pull the numbers, but I'll say I jumped out to what, like, maybe a five-point lead relatively early on. And it was just like, you know, with a whole lot of caveats. And then it just sort of evened out at about 2%.

and that was it for the night, you know? I mean, just no matter how many votes came in. And with the looming specter of the Wayne counties, the big city areas that were, that were, you know, well, I mean, the predictions were all a little bit off. Way off. The quality polling seemed to come almost exclusively from the El-Sad campaign, which is just sort of, you know, not where you want to be

when you're an outsider watching. And, yeah, so, I mean, and honestly, no matter who did the polling. I mean, you say it's way off, it was. was significantly off. There was the last ones had, I'll say it up pretty significantly. I mean, you're just projecting. You're just projecting. When you have two campaigns that are that are running different get out the vote campaigns to the extent that they were and with the amount of money that that was involved, you know, it was pretty tight. And would you have it on the list? The number of people who were out there voting because Obama told them to, even though

that wasn't exactly true. This is the Stevens ad where she, used a clip of Obama praising her for working on the auto bailout, which is a real clip. Absolutely. But then a lot of people were, you know, interpreted as Obama had endorsed Stevens, which he had not.

And of course, the Stevens campaign is happy to have people think that if they... Anybody would be. Yeah. Anybody would be. Can I give you the last eight polls of this race as aggregated by the New York Times? Sure, please.

Elseed plus 19. plus 17, 14, 14, 16, 11, 10, 16, and 13. So if there was an idea that he was going to win a blowout last night, that was part of it. There was also a really funny Twitter story that started circulating a few days ago that Stevens's pollster had called her up to tell her, and this is before the votes came in, and called her up to tell her she had no path to victory. that was just reported with anonymous sources. Real marshal of the Supreme Court arresting Trump or whoever the marshal was arresting vibes. I mean, just, and again,

it's very hard to poll state governor and state primaries, whether governor or senator. But man, I was funny, I was talking to Jason Concepcion yesterday because I was doing his podcast, and I was like, if El Cyan loses, it is going to be one of the all-time, horrendous days on politics, Twitter.

just given not only the stakes of the race, not only the huge ideological gulf between Stevens and Elsehead, but just given the expectations that he was going to come in and romp. Yeah, I mean, listen, any poll would have been, any, even if the poll had been right, it would have been sort of lying through its teeth, right? I mean, you have to, like, basically invent the sample size out of whole cloth. There's never been an election like this, you know, in Michigan.

And there will continue. and maybe not anywhere in the country, something that was like so nationalized and yet so localized. You're like it wasn't like either of these people were like shunning the local aspect of the campaign. Right. I mean, the most, some of the most attractive aspects of El Sayads,

candidacy had nothing to do with, obviously had nothing to do with Israel and Palestine and this stuff. The only things like the national media want to talk about. It's, and Haley Stevens too. I mean, Haley Stevens is, is, I mean, certainly even more than else I had just like, it was efforting to present as a local candidate.

Sure. Leaning into that accent. Yes, exactly. No poster could look at this and say they knew what percentage of what sort of people were going to show up. The odds of it being this close, though, are, I mean, it's a pretty spectacular thing. It's pretty spectacular. I do think, as I said the other day to you, we have entered an era of,

I don't know anybody who voted for blank elections. Yes. And if you look at your feed and I look at my feed, there are not a ton of Haley Stevens fans there. That, however, does not mean that she's not going to win or that she doesn't have a chance to win. And that, you know, we talk about we can use, you know, boogeyman terms like the establishment and all that kind of stuff.

There were a lot of people that turned out to vote for her yesterday. And if you combine her vote total. and McMorros vote total. It's more than 50% of the electorate in Michigan right now, Democratic electorate. Like, there are a lot of people that turned out to vote for her. Yes. We haven't mentioned Mallory McMorrow yet.

And it was, it's kind of hard. I mean, it's not like, I mean, whatever. It's not really worth anybody's breath to demonize any, like, dropped out third, like, third candidate in this situation. But, like, but, yes, from the very beginning of the night, McMorrow's, like, vote count would have put either candidate over the top. Yes. You know, and it would have been a, and it would have been, you know, an 8.15 p.m. call probably, you know, like it's not like it would have been that difficult if she, if her votes were magically reapportioned to somebody else.

So, yeah, I mean, so there's a, there's a big, there's a, there's a big asterisk, I guess, you know, if you're the, if you're the Stevens campaign, if we had just had those votes, whatever, but that's not how elections work. And we saw a lot of, that, that probably wasn't the most exciting moment of the night for dropout candidates. there was another one in Michigan yeah with a dropout beat the Trump endorsed candidate in a congressional primary and apparently that and apparently that the dropout doesn't get to like have a do-over in that race right you have to like they have to stay dropped out

of the race they're not they don't get to come in and claim it which just felt like like I just assumed you would just reactivate your campaign at 1159 and be like psych I get to you know let me get that seat I like it 1159. You must do it on election. Well, I don't know what the rules are.

Come on, we're making stuff up here. But yeah, no, it was, I mean, just so close, just so close. And like we said, I mean, even the, even the, even like the peripheral predictions that the, that the, that the mail-in vote would have been like so pro-Stevens, you know, it would have been so pro-Stevens. And then it wasn't. It was pro-Alsillet. And then, you know, of course, the numbers came in and it got narrower, narrower as the night went on,

which was the reverse of what people thought, too, that, like, you know, walk up voting would benefit LSAID. So, I mean, that has everything to do with the order in which counties were, and the speed, which the various counties were counted. But still, the perception is that just like this is going contrary to everything people thought. Absolutely. And again, I don't say that to, you know, to stump for Stevens or McMororo or try to construct some apparatus where she was the real winner of the night because her vote and a candidate

who dropped out's vote equals more than LCA's. That's not how it works in American politics. It's not. All I'm making is an unoriginal point. that it is very, very possible in 2026 to follow politics, to be on social media all the time and not encounter anyone

who is supporting a candidate who is actually very, very viable. We did all this with Trump a couple of times. Now we're doing it with Haley-Stef's like, okay, you know, like, well, eventually we will figure this out. Don't you remember, this is the showing our age segment,

don't you remember moving to New York in the first George W. Bush term? and encountering like very intelligent grown-ass adults who would say like I don't know anyone that voted for George W. Bush is a way of dismissing him. Absolutely. This is like half the country. Of course, we were like one foot in Texas still. So we were just like this is everyone we know. You know, but still it was like, I mean, that's it was, I mean, that perception is always around something you always have to guard against if you're living in, you know, the Northeast or the West Coast or something.

Which so many people that we know are. 04 was a big one for me in the nobody I know voted for blank category because it was like, well, John Kerry's got to win, right? I was like, actually he does. Didn't Trump called, I mean, not Trump, a drudge called it for John Kerry like super early. They were the exit polls. I remember some phone, frantic phone calls between you and I because Drudge had put up the exit poll showing Kerry winning in all these states.

It was like, oh my God. Exit polling, which followed the polling going into it if memory serves, which ties it back to today. So it's just like if you want to believe the polls too much, you're just going to work yourself into a frenzy. If Elsaid beats Mike Rogers, he'll be the first Muslim United States Senator in American history. He ran exactly the campaign he wanted to on issues stretching from Medicare for All to aid for Israel. He overcame massive outside spending, as you just mentioned. And he would have done this in Michigan, not Vermont or congressional district in New York City in Michigan.

a big swingy state. I'll also add he did this with the rhetorical style that he chose, which I know, I know wrestling explains American politics, but dude, does anyone sound like he is cutting a promo more than Abdul El-Sayed? There is a wrestling thing going on here, which is like we've reached such a capacity of politicians doing an Obama impression on some level, that like it's just its own category.

It's no longer an impression. It's just the heirs of superstar Billy Graham and the pro wrestling world where like everybody says brother, you know, and bleaches their mustache. Like it's, it's a, yeah, it's kind of silly to even say to even bring up anymore. But Syed's got a little bit of that in him.

Sayad, it should be said, he's not unique in this category, but as far as like lefty insurgent candidates go, he's not new to politics. Like, he's been working his way up in Michigan politics for quite some time. And I think, and certainly that is an under-discust fact on the national news level. Again, you mentioned Medicare for All. I mean, he got, you know, lots of people's medical debt canceled along the way in his political career.

Like, he's done these sort of like, whatever, kitchen table-y, like, political things. He's got a resume that should get him elected. But of course, I mean, he was redefined by the attention that the national media bought up. And certainly Haley Stevens was too. Like, not to take anything away from her. I mean, she was made into a caricature almost immediately and worked with it. You know, I don't think either of these people are bad politicians. I think that Haley Stevens sort of not, I mean, who knows, justifiably,

I'll just say justifiably just got saddled with the baggage of having this sort of machine behind her. And in 20, in every election cycle over the past 10 years, the worst thing you can do is to be seen like you're part of the machine. That's what's so funny,

because I think this entire election cycle, and even specifically last night in Michigan, is going to birth one million think pieces. You could argue that besides El Say Ed, presumably, the real winner was think pieces. Because man, you can look at this,

and find exactly the reality of the Democratic Party that you prefer. He found Democratic voters where they increasingly are on issues like Israel to name one. And if you want to go anti-establishment, you want to go Medicare for all, whatever it is. He found voters where they are moving within the Democratic Party. Sure. You can also do the, if you want to contort yourself a little bit, you can be like, hey, the establishment had a lot of power last night. They just had the wrong candidate with Stevens losing by a few votes.

I saw a McMorrow could have won Lure thrown in the water At least once last night That's out there if you want it Another think piece McMorow and Alyssa Slokin Screwed up by not endorsing Stevens They both sat out

This race A lot of people called this a preview Of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary It's certainly still on the table If you want to write there Both Stevens and I'll say it will be in the primary or just politically, this is where we're going to be. The ideological battles in Michigan will be the ideological battle in the primary.

I kind of take exception to that, but finish what you're saying before I go in. Well, and, you know, there were a lot of like, hey, if Al Zaid wins and then beats Mike Rogers in November, maybe he will run for president. That's not crazy at all. Somebody is going to take up the left lane in the Democratic primaries. and if it's not AOC, if she decides not to run, then somebody's going to be. And I don't think it's going to be Roe Kana or at least only Ro Kana. If you are to believe the various think pieces and news pieces on the subject, the DSA has some disproportionate amount of power in Democrat politics right now.

But in a and men, who knows, maybe they have a level of organization here to four unknown in American politics. but separate from that idea, I'd find it hard to believe it'd be only one left lane. I think that the, I think that AOC, if she chooses to run, will be the establishment left lane. And I think there'll be a big lane open for someone who's like a perceived outsider. Even someone like, I'll say Ed, who like I said has been in politics for a long time, can come in with a different vibe than her and then, you know, drop out and endorse her.

The outsider to the outsider? The outside, the lefty outside. I mean, I mean, AOC is an insider outsider, right? So I think that there's going to be space for everybody. But to go to what you said about the preview of the general, the Israel-Palestine issue, and I don't want to belabor it, because again, that's not really what this election was about. But that issue, which really kind of came into focus with the Iran war, obviously there have been stuff going on long before, and this had been a topic of conversation, but the war in Iran happens right as this election is nationalizing, right?

Right as the reporters from CNN and everywhere else just struck. up on the campaign trail. And it be, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, and it, I think sort of, there was a sort of oversampling of, like, how much people, how much, like, the voters were specifically. It was more of a signifier of political affiliation than it was a real, like, platform piece for either, either one of them. And, you know, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't, I happen in real time, I think really skewed the Stevens campaign and their point of view.

Because I frankly, and this is where I think, I don't think it's going to be nationalized. I think of Israel is this much of a hot button topic. A PAC and all of its associated money-giving organizations will not be out there forcing, asking any candidates to make the pro-Risrael case in a public way. I think there'll be lots of donations, and I don't think that the ads will be about Israel. I think there'll be about everything else. You know, I don't... You think the issue will just kind of get taken off the table because it will be so volatile or just so one-sided?

I think it'll be both volatile and both of those things to the point where like, I don't think... We've seen it already. A-PAC doesn't want... A-PAC is not intent on their candidates running on a pro-Israel platform if it's not going to help the candidates. And I think in the primary, the presidential primary, sure, it'll be a thing that the media keeps. keeps asking and asking and asking. But I think just like you saw in the waning days of the Stevens campaign, the outside group funded ads are not going to be about like

America's longing for its commitment to Israel. It's got to be about completely different things and just shoved out into the massive amounts of airwaves. I mean, I think when they do the post-mortem of this account, I mean, of this race, what we're going to see is the sheer number of votes that those ads really bought in we kept hearing it last night. TV still works. There's huge swaths of that state

where you're not doing, you're not doing, you're not doing, you know, one-on-one politicking. If you're running for those seats and you're leaving it up to the commercials and the Stevens campaign just had a whole bunch more really evocative commercials running in those places. And America isn't even bigger,

obviously a much bigger, or even state by state for the primary, you're dealing with other huge swaths, you know? So I think, that it'll be, I think that obviously it's going to be a huge front and center issue because the national media won't stop asking about it and with good reason. But I just find it hard to believe there's going to be a whole lot of people, a whole lot of mainstream or middle of the road candidates on, in, in, on the left that are going to, that are going to want to get into that

battle. Because there's not a win. There's not a win there for them. There's no win. hear that it's your money calling it wants a promotion elevate your savings with the scotia high interest savings account always earn high regular interest rates that grow the more you save and invest conditions apply visit scotia bank dot com slash h i sa to learn more scotia bank you're richer than you think um i'll do a flipside take when you mention the commercials a flipside media centric take which is Elsaid's ability to go on podcast and do lots of interviews in a way Stevens could not

was an interesting part of this race. I think if you look at Stevens' moments that are even close to that, it was probably that one with Jacob Wasserman of TMZ DC in the house where she sort of figured it out. But, you know, again, I don't know how decisive that was.

But if we think, you know, if going forward not every Democrat is going to believe what else I had believes, which I think is certainly true. true, most of them are going to need the ability to talk in on podcasts, to fill your Twitter feeds in the way he did. Like that's just, that is just, you talk about requirements going forward. I don't totally see a candidate who can just bypass that on a national level.

We're talking about president 2020. Bypass the issue? No, bypass just the ability to go on and just do those kinds of interviews and getting people's Twitter feeds other than just purely through commercials, airwave campaigns, speeches, etc. Totally true. And this might be, I mean, this is a point that we might just be totally, I mean, it might be totally meaningless within a couple of years.

But it does seem like because of the reach of podcasts that there is a, we're seeing, I mean, a giant shift in, we're going to see a giant shift in politics. It, it behooves candidates who, for better or worse, and obviously, president's an example of this who kind of believe their own bullshit right i mean like actually like you can't be pulling on you can't you can't you can't like you can't be a like it's such a manufactured political character in 2026 because you can't because that character can't sit down and do an hour and a half interview you know what i mean yeah like you kind of you kind of have to be real i mean and not that you couldn't fake what else i said is doing don't get me wrong i mean the jury still out

under what to agree like grand platner was full of shit i mean he was completely full of shit in a lot of ways, but, like, you could do, you could create that character. I just think in general, like, you have to sort of be able to be yourself. And, you know, there's, I mean, J.D. Vance is obviously capable of doing it and talk about political beliefs that he didn't have a couple years ago, like, whatever. But, like, I do think that that, especially in the state level, actually, like, believing your own platform is suddenly super important. One note from Nate Silver that he wrote in the wee hours last night that I thought was

interesting on the subject of those polls being wrong or the kind of general, you know, sense of this particular primary being off. Silver wrote this. Historically in gambling adjacent activities, there's a bias toward long shots. You and I know this because when Bill does the NBA preview, he's not predicting who's going to win the NBA finals. He's looking for the best value bets. All right. So Silver says it. And then he continues here. He says, but I think that may have flipped in the other direction given all the attention given to prediction markets and that people tend to treat them as oracular when they shouldn't. That was interesting to me because if you looked at prediction markets before last night,

there were, you know, Haley Stevens was in single digits. Ah, people know something. People know she's not going to win. Well, it turns out she had a much better chance, right? She was much, she was undervalued if you want to use the language of those places. And I thought that was an interesting point, just given how our world has changed. in terms of gambling and politics. Absolutely true.

And especially in terms of just like the sort of pedestrian like rise and fall, like one, two percent, three percent in some direction. Because a couple of big money better is like changed it. I mean, change the, change the odds. I don't think news organizations really have their heads wrapped around when and how to report such things. Right? Like when at what point would it be meaningful? It's not.

But, but you know, like, you know, you got to have, you got to have some point in which like is merits a news story. Otherwise, it's just noise. This is the thing is when you have, when you are writing news, reporting news, talking on cable television, talking on a podcast, you want a scoreboard so badly. So that you can just feel where you are, whether it's a primary election, whatever it is. Like, you know, the whole Adam O'Neill thing, which I mentioned very briefly on Monday show, you step down as the opinion editor of the Washington Post. Like, when he came out with that YouTube show and people could look at the subscribers, here is this public scoreboard and be like, look at this. Nobody is listening to this. Nobody is subscribing to this.

That hurt him very, very badly in the public eye. I don't know if it hurt him with Jeff Bezos or not, but it hurt him in the public eye because you could point at a thing. So when we see a scoreboard, no matter how faulty it is, we're like, aha, see, look at that. She doesn't have a chance. She has zero chance. And we become almost reliant on that scoreboard whether or not it has any merit or whether it's consistently has any merit. So to take the scoreboard metaphor a step further, if this were a, you know, NBA finals game seven that you fell asleep during and you woke up. You woke up the next morning and it was, you know,

Knicks by one double overtime. Uh-huh. That feels like a pretty incredible moment for a Knicks fan, right? Like, you, like, that's a, like, you would take a one point, I mean, maybe not because of like the, the, the, the, the, the, the agita would give you in real time, but you'd take that, like, dramatic two, double over time, like, eke out a win against a great opponent. 100%. One hundred.

And, you know, in regulation. Well, I would take them equally. No, I'm just saying you'll take it. And they probably, I mean, and they probably have a pretty similar meaning. But what is, but, but I feel like by the time that I logged off last night, the think pieces were already getting written, getting written live on TV. Like a one point victory by Alsaid, well, that's a different thing than what we were expecting. Sure.

So is he really, is he really, is he really going to have the mandate quote? I love that, that phrasing, that we, that we thought he would. I mean, listen, the. polls were crappy, but the story's kind of still the same. I'm not sure. This is the thing that always gets me in political in political coverage. Like, what is the percentage point at which you're allowed to be proud? You know, George, George, George, George W started tradition of like the political mandate of, you know, of receiving the political mandate whether or not the numbers really showed it, right? I mean, just announcing it when he lost the pro-ouncing it. Yeah. But it is,

you know, I mean, an election this tight, like, it's, it's obviously very tempting to read the voters' politics into it, but there's so many more things at play. Like, does Al-Saiad get to be triumphant about this? Or is, you know, is there reason for him to be cowed into some sort of, I mean, listen, he was going to pivot to, if not the middle, pivot to outreach of the, of the, you know, vote people that didn't vote for him. Absolutely. The, Haley Stevens block immediately. And already has, in fact. So mention that in his remarks last night.

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, both of them did, right? I mean, that was maybe, that was the, if you were watching live, that was the biggest red herring in both directions, right? It's just like they both were so, I mean, it seemed like, you know, they're both saying we have to, you know, obviously we have to reunite as a party, blah, blah. And it felt like that was a real winners thing to say, right? Or maybe that.

Did you notice Mallory Murrow was like, I'm going to get in my car and drive to the winner's victory party and endorse them tonight? Yeah. Like, that also had a little professional wrestling, like, she has a ticket. She has every right to be here. The black car just rolling up in the backstage area. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it's, so yeah, it's good. I mean, it'll be, it's interesting to me. I mean, because like I said, people are live on TV saying, well, but now I'll say it's not in the same position he was 24 hours ago. He's a little bit cowed. He's a little bit defeated even though he won, you know? And I, and it's like the margins are just so freaking close. It's like, like, what's the number?

And yes, any idiot can look and see this is less than a percentage point, right? But like, at what point is it meaningful? It's like, it's like Olympics. It's like Olympic, you know, when the judges are rating the Olympians and like the winner has like a 4.9 and the loser has a 4.81. You know, it's just like these are the margins that we're talking about. This is supposed to be meaningful, but it is meaningful. The great thing for journalists about your question is there is no answer to it. Thank you.

So you can argue whatever you want. I tend to go with, you know, George W. Bush is thinking that if you win the election, you won the election. Yep. And, you know, at the end of the day, if you have one more vote than the other person, you get it. You win. And you can, and part of it is, you know, we've seen Mom Donnie talking about that in New York City, right? Like, I have political capital and I'm going to use it right now. Like, I want to do that.

Part of it is a confidence game and, you know, strategy, all that stuff. But to your fundamental question of, How much, how happy does he get to be? How much of a mandate does he, does he say have? How much do him and his allies get to argue that the Democratic Party has changed or should change to, to look, to sound and look like him? That, it has no answer, right? That's the great part for people in our profession, because you just get to argue about this for until the end of time. It's totally true.

And to go back to the basketball metaphor one more time, just kind of keep going back to that well. Not the Knicks. Can we switch up the teams at least? Yeah, absolutely. The Dallas Mavericks have won the NBA finals. No, it's before we get there. It's like every time, if you, if you, if it's round one and you, you win a nail biter in seven, sorry, five games. What is it five?

No, it's seven games now, right? The, um, we're two on the NBA finals? No, no, no, like the first round of the playoffs. I was like, are they still seven? Okay, go ahead. Yes. Uh, you don't, I mean, you can adjust between series, but for the most of the most of the first. part, if you win one series, it doesn't have any bearing on the next series, right? The

matchups are different in every round. So just because you lost, because you won by one point, doesn't mean you have to keep playing like an underdog in a round two if you're like a much better team than that. Nick's Hawks was not predictive of the next chances of winning the NBA finals this year. So Al-Sayette, I don't think Al-Sayed is, I don't, there's no reason for him to moderate simply because he's, because of this election. If he has to moderate to take on Mike Rogers, that's a different calculus, but he's not, he doesn't owe the electorate of Michigan in anything. And now this is the next round of the playoffs, right? If his best shot against Mike Rogers is moving even more to the left, then he'll do that. Then he will, should it, and will and should

do that, you know? So I think some of those conversations are just a little bit meaningless right now. I mean, they're going to come from, I'm not going to like point a finger anybody, but they're going to come from like the Haley Stevens section of like the liberal universe. No, absolutely. But that doesn't, but it's not necessarily like a cogent argument. Can we do some notes on the night in cable news? Please. So we started things off at 8 p.m. Eastern last night when most of the polls closed in Michigan. Yeah.

All of America learned that there were some precincts in the Upper Peninsula that closed at nine. But eight o'clock is when. The UP is its own world. Don't even. It is. Yeah. My immediate reaction upon flipping on CNN was, oh, it's August. This is a hugely important primary, but it's August.

So Anderson Cooper was gone. By God, that was John Berman's music last night on CNN. Willie Geist was holding down the Ford on Morning Joe this morning. Very, very funny to see, like, kind of the, you know, remaining members of the A team and then some of the subs. Well, I thought it was funny on MS now because they really had everybody on the desk last night, like all of the, all of their names. They had the stars. It evoked, you know, the weird election when, like, Keith Oberman and Rachel Maddow were, like, sitting next to each other with the decision. Yeah, where Keith was the point guard and then Mattow was there.

But, um, those are the good old days. But I remember watching thinking just like, does Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzynski, did they get a call? Are they just like, like, would you guys like to be at the desk, you know? I thought you meant like, are they briefed on the results? No, no, no, no. Are they invited to that party? And yes or no, like, obviously part of the answer is, well, they have to do the show the next morning, so it's an easy out. But they didn't do the show today, did they?

They didn't know. It was Willie Geist when I was watching. That's very strange. But you're right. It's August. Who knows? Chris Jansing, longtime MSNBC, MS now. host has been turned into a reporter.

That was news to me last night. She was at the Elsaid party. I mentioned John King talking about Wayne County and how long those votes we're going to take to come in. Oh my God, last night turned into such an exercise and time killing on cable news. It was Chris Van Hollen O'clock at one point. Later, it was Katie Porter O'clock.

She was back. as a pundit. And to me, if there was a failing last night, it was the inability of the networks to dramatize the split in the Democratic Party on their air. Like CNN got there early with David Axelrod versus Van Jones. That was an interesting moment. CNN got there again when Abby Philip asked Bernie about Hassan Piker. Here's a little bit of sound of Bernie Sanders. To give you an example, one of the more controversial ones is that Piker has said America deserved 9-11.

Are you comfortable with that association? No, I am not. I think that's a dumb statement. On the other hand, he has a whole lot of followers, and there's a lot of things that he's saying that are making sense to a lot of people. I think, you know, we have to get above cancel culture. You know, when you're doing radio, whatever they do, podcasts three hours a day, you say dumb things. Asan Piker is doing hours and hours of radio every day. that made me smile so much.

She later asked him about James Carvel and, you know, Carvel, you know, talking about, oh, not my Democratic Party. And they got there, I thought. I don't know how much of MS now you were watching. But they never quite seemed to get there to me. And again, I was flipping around. So forgive me if I missed moments like that. But they could not dramatize.

This was a hugely important night for the Democratic Party, right? Here's one vision of what the party should be. Here's another vision. here's a one vision of what's electable here's another vision and that cast and crew even though all the stars were there are so polite to each other it's like they are incapable of having any kind of argument or just you know airing and talking things out it's all yo you make such a wonderful point let me follow up on your wonderful point oh that's such a such a smart observation let me add to that and i'm sitting there just like guys this is a night where the democrats are kind of just are kind of just are yanking the party in two different directions. You are the liberal news network. Are we not going to see that on your air? Or we just kind of kind of be like,

ah, another night in Michigan. It's always a precarious balance on MSNBC, even going back. I mean, sorry, MS now, but going back to the MSNBC, the Oberman Mattow days were like, you could tell there was some tension there, but they never disagreed with it was always complimentary. Yeah, I mean, it's just a, first of all, it's really hard. I think everybody on every network is so concerned about not getting something wrong that it's not just the inability to dramatize.

It's like the unwillingness to err, right? And I think that holds everybody back. I think they look at Twitter too. I think those people are very conscious of the way they're perceived online. And if, you know, the Bernie wing says, oh, that person has it in for us. Or the centrist wing of the Democrats say, oh, you know, that person's like a hopeless Bernie crat. they don't want any part of that. Dude, near a Tandon, who seems to have no compunction about that at all on Twitter,

she was on CNN last night, right? Seeing more, I mean, seemingly more open to an, I'll say, Ed victory than she, by miles than she'd ever been previously. You know, she's almost playing a completely different character. She was paying attention. Simone Sanders Townsend on, on MS now was, you know, who worked for Bernie Sanders, was openly saying, I'm not, I am not a Democratic socialist, right? It was just trying to make this point.

A lot of times comes down a little bit more in the center politically than you would expect of someone that worked for Bernie. But on MS now, it's like, you're right. It's not just that. It's like somehow they've got this setup where I think some of the, you know, the Chris Hayes of the world are more invested in the horse race last night in particular, not specifically. But sometimes it seems like Michael Steele is the most left-leaning person on the stage because everybody's being so precious. He can kind of go in there and joust a little bit. Yeah, he has no problem just like taking on a point of view

where it does seem like the rest of them are a little bit leery of it. And they have a lot of stars on there. Like they were doing the thing with almost like hockey lines subbing in and out. The press box is very own. Stephanie Rule came in at one point. You had Lawrence O'Donnell on the end. You mentioned Simone Sanders Towns. They have a lot of people that they sell to cycle in and out.

But what's missing from that network? And again, I can't believe I'm arguing for like people getting mad at other on cable news more crossfire yeah go ahead i'm violating a personal vow that i would never do this but i'm like i just it's funny that you are the liberal network but somehow the dramas of the democratic party are not really being played out here they're being talked about they're being analyzed yeah but they are not being dramatized if that totally agree well i think that there's one i think that there's a big piece where like the drama there's there's a real aspect of it where like that drama is a little is just being overplayed that it's like it's a very it's a centrist driven drama right let's

make this seem like the end of the world and i and i think they're probably being careful about that perception and i think that was probably the right call but i think that what you're i think that the the the deeper point that you're getting at is really true this is supposed to be like at least the ms now folks that whatever wing of the of the party that is or of the liberal movement that is purport to be the truth tellers and the explainers, you know? And like there is really very little explication going on. What are the actual stakes here? Like what are we actually fighting over?

You know? And you don't have to take a victory lap to say, to announce this is what this means. I think the election, I mean, the voting was actually, is obviously way too close to, to define it out too much. But I agree. I mean, I agree there. It seems like this is not a case of like. Come on, guys, what are we really fighting over? I mean, there were real differences.

There were real differences. Politics is about power. And one candidate wants to win so that they can be powerful and influence the party, not to mention influence American politics. Also, they had an interview with Bernie that was just very, very stayed. And then they did a whole postgame show about their interview with Bernie. And meanwhile, if you looked at their little ticker there, the election really, really tightened up.

This is around 10.30 Eastern last night. I'm like, can we just talk about Michigan for a second? Because we're sort of losing the thread here. Like, I know we wanted to, like, analyze all those fascinating answers. Bernie Sanders just gave you. But guys, like, this is tightening up. This is tighter than many people expected. Let's do some horse race.

Speaking of which. So, to review, the reason Michigan really, really matters is the Democrats need to pick up four seats to take control of the Senate. Have a net pickup of four seats. North Carolina One of David's old stomping grounds Looks increasingly like a certainty for the Democrats Roy Cooper is going to win that state Don't get out of your skis

Okay I'm I'm I'm Roy Cooper is a good No no no everything I mean every I agree with everything But I just don't I just it's

I'm almost judging You can make any pronouncement I'm making no pronouncement Yeah that's true We just did a whole segment about not making pronouncements. I will say this. If you just judge from the lack of coverage of that race, it's pretty shocking. Reporters aren't there anyway. So that would be one. Number two, potentially would be Maine. And Troy Jackson made a cogent video that he put on Twitter the

other day. And everybody was like, yes, yes. This is the this is the talker I've been wanting to see from Troy Jackson. It was the Biden Trump's first debate of this last cycle of that campaign. It's just like proof of life, basically. It was. When Biden, it was really that, remember the state of the union in 2024, when everybody was worried? And then he kind of yelled at the Republicans for an hour. And even as we're Klein, was like, okay, I'm convinced.

Yeah. Not so much. So that's two main. Ohio, potentially number three. Again, a race, I feel that the national media has not really focused on all that much yet. There's a lot of other drama going on in Ohio. And by the way, we should mention Jake Tapper or Max Miller. If Jake Tapper got the rest of the night off last night,

it was for a reason, because that was a hell of an interview. Yeah. That he did with him in speaking of Ohio. Number four would be Alaska. Fascinating race that I want to read more about. Once again, the Democrats got a good candidate. And by the way, this is the other funny part,

because speaking of something everybody's asked about, I'm guilty party here too, every time you talk to a senator, you ask them about Chuck Schumer and whether he should be the leader of the Senate Democrats going forward. Partly just to, you know, when Chris Murphy was in the studio in L.A. I asked him because I just wanted, like, what is the positive case for, if you support Chuck Schumer,

what is the case for Chuck Schumer? Here's what's weird. Gravity. Gravity. There you go. But here's what's weird. If Democrats win the Senate, Chuck Schumer will have done very, very good candidate recruitment in North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and probably Iowa as well.

I think that's also attributable to him. So that's like, if this gets there, he is part of the same. even if he is not the guy to leave the Democrats going forward. For sure. For Alaska, five Iowa, which is increasingly interesting. And in the six hole,

let's put Texas. Because James Tala Rico has gotten a couple of good polls in a row. So you would have to find four of those. And then you would have to not lose any seats if you're the Democrats. Georgia, where Aossov seems in control. New Hampshire, which speaking of just a completely,

lack of national coverage. And maybe that's a sign that Gene Cheney is going to be filled by a Democrat and then Michigan. So that's the map. Yeah, it's not, it wouldn't be implausible without the Michigan win, but it would be very unlikely. Especially because, I mean, and again, we don't, it's silly to sort of overnationalize these things, but we're going to do it regardless. And this is, but this is a real instance where you're going to be running with Trump at the top of the ticket, right? you're competing, so it is much more national election.

Figuratively, if not literally, yes. Sorry. But, yeah, I mean, it is, it is, this is a, it's going to feel very national, you know, and obviously there, it's, you know, the Israel-Palestine issue, I think for a lot of politicians, unfortunately, is sort of a, it's, it's a little bit ephemeral, you know, but, but, but like an act of war being prosecuted in Iran is not. And obviously this has the potential to be not a landslide, but, you know, potentially like either side could win across the board.

And I think that's going to be increasingly likely. All right, that's the press box. He's David Chewmaker. I'm Brian Curtis. Production Magic by Isaiah Blakely and John Jones. Thank you both so much as always. I'm going to be out for a few days, David. taking the rest of this week off.

So Joel Anderson, you know him. He is holding down the fort on the press box. He's got a very special guest lined up for tomorrow. Check that out while I'm gone. We're back in our normal seats to you and me, David, next week with more. Lukewarm takes about the meeting. See you then, David.

See you later, Brian.