The Press Box - Is ‘Three Billboards’ Actually Just ‘Crash’ 2.0? Plus, Other Oscars Takes | The Big Picture (Ep. 433)

Episode Date: February 27, 2018

Ringer editor-in-chief Sean Fennessey sits down with The Ringer’s Amanda Dobbins and K. Austin Collins and New York Times critic Wesley Morris to discuss eerie similarities between ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ and the notorious 2006 Best Picture winner, ‘Crash’ (0:00). Then, Chris Ryan joins to discuss ‘Shape of Water’ and its status as the clear front-runner to win Best Picture (0:00). More on the Oscars from The Ringer: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiI3wRw9PbSYHic2RJiHo4UxfhVD2DYWb https://www.theringer.com/oscars Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I just don't want to fight over La La Land or three billboards. It's not worth fighting about. Crash. That is a movie worth fighting and dying over. I'm Sean Fennessey, editor-in-chief of The Ringer, and this is the big picture, a conversation show with filmmakers. However, today we will not be having a conversation with filmmakers. I'll be having a conversation with some of my colleagues,

and there's a good reason for that. It is Oscar Week. Oscar Week is a very exciting time at the Ringer. It's a very exciting time in the movie world. and to mark that time, we recorded a series of videos here at The Ringer where we had a series of conversations about the biggest questions in the Oscar races this year. I was a part of some of those conversations, and so I'm looking forward to sharing some of them with you here in audio form. Some of them will be about three billboards and whether or not it is, let's say, Crash 2.0. And another one will be about the shape of water, which many people consider the frontrunner and the best picture race.

And, you know, kind of identifying out of these two big movies, what is really leading the pack and why and what the round. of a win for those movies will be. In addition to that, I hope you'll check out the rest of our Oscars coverage on the ringer.com. We're doing a ton of stuff this week. We had a look back at the 2013 Oscars. Miles Surrey, Andrew Grudadarro, and Cam Collins did that. I jumped on the Bill Simmons podcast, along with Wesley Morris,

and we talked about the 2013 Oscars as well. There'll be a series of written pieces, including by me. I'm trying to predict all 24 categories. I suspect I'll get at least 34% of those guesses wrong. And then on Sunday night, the big night, will be doing a after party and a little bit of a pre-show, looking at all the races and everything that happened on the big night and examining Jimmy Kimmel's performance

and how will they reckon with Moonlight one year later and if there's really going to be some controversy in this best picture race. And if there is, this conversation will get you primed for the pump. So here is Cameron Collins, Wesley Morris, Amanda Dobbins, Chris Ryan, and myself talking about the 2017 Oscars. This conversation is not about Dunkirk. It is not about the shape of the show of the show. water or Get Out or Lady Bird or Phantom Thread or The Post or Coco. It's about three billboards

outside Ebbing Missouri. Martin McDonough's story of a woman reckoning with the murder of her daughter. And it's a complicated movie. Everyone at this couch setting has talked about it and thought about it a lot. Part of the reason it's so controversial is because it's a bit polarizing about what it means to be an American, especially a white American, and how it relates to the rest of the people that live in America. And it has made a lot of people think this might be Crash 2.0. What does that mean? In 2005, Crash. Paul Haggis's story of race and power and police forces meeting in the center of Los Angeles won Best Picture. It is widely regarded by many experts as the worst movie to ever win Best Picture. We can disagree about that if we like.

Need we? Need we? I've seen the greatest show on earth, my friend. And let me tell you, Crash is no greatest show on earth. So with that in mind, historically speaking, if three billboards wins best picture,

do we have a crash 2.0 on our hands? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Why would that be the case? Well, for all the reasons you so eloquently explained in your setup, mostly having to do with this idea of a movie's thinking it's seeing something about this country that it's not seeing.

And to be fair, this is actually worse than Crash in some ways because at least Paul Haggis had a point of view that as wrong and as like appallingly short-sighted as it was, I could identify where that movie is coming from. You know what I mean? I know exactly who that guy thinks he is. The Hollywood Hills? Yeah, and he just put his arm around Daniel Kaluya and said, you know, how long has this been going on? This thing. That is crash to me. Yes.

Paul Haggis would have voted for Obama four times. I know the person who made that movie. I understand where it comes from. and I know exactly what about it makes me angry. Three Billboard's is a much harder movie, at least for me, to put my finger on what exasperates me so much about it. Because it really thinks it's on to something.

Right. And it has no idea what it's on to about. Right. And what's so interesting is that it has won, it wanted the Golden Globes, it wanted the Bafta. So many people have, have embraced it.

Barbara Streisand's reaction to it's winning at the Golden Globes. Yeah, but they, it has kind of taken the role of, I'm voting for this because I think it says something about this time in America. Many of those voting bodies are international. The Baftas is seeing America.

The Golden Globes is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. And this seeing America. And this is a movie made by a British, Irish person. Yes. Yes. Martin McDonough, he has a name. We should use it. He's like Voldemort too. Yeah, I, man.

I rewatched Crash recently, and I was taken aback by how much more I understood why people were seduced by it. That's not something that I really gave it credit for until last week. But three billboards, I've had so many conversations, so many arguments, and I don't think I'm seeing

what other my friends aren't seeing. Like, I don't think I understand. how in that movie you can just take the shots, for example, of black people in the background, peering on as a white person's misbehaving, and sort of that's their entire character,

that's their entire inner life, and not immediately think, oh, this is bullshit. Like, I just, I don't... Crash is different for me because I, again, I watched it, and I was like, you know what, I see, I see why people thought this was deep. I don't think it's deep. I think the music's bad.

I think the acting is weird, but not always bad, actually. Yeah, but there's no moment in Three Bullboards that has this. You're my best friend. You're my best friend. And that woman is like, I have no idea who this bitch is. I don't know. It does smoldering Matt Dillon either. It does have something, though, that you and I have talked about a little bit,

which is it has a portrayal of an extreme. extremely angry middle-aged woman, which is not a character that we see in movies that often. No, and I think Francis Vigorn is very good in this movie. I have thought a lot about that performance while also not thinking that the movie comes together, not thinking that the movie should win Best Picture at all, and being kind of baffled by what affirmative statement people think they're making when they vote for three billboards. Like, I don't understand. Let's explore that, because I think one of the biggest controversies around the movie is a feeling that Sam Rockwell's character, he plays a

fired deputy in a small town police department who is notably a racist and also a very violent cop. There's an expectation that that character at the end of the movie is redeemed, and that seems to be something that a lot of people responded to, the concept of this racist was redeemed

by the narrative arc of this story and thus this movie is invalid. And so I want to hear from you guys if that matters, if it matters if we feel that and if then the movie is somehow less worthy. Well, that's basically Matt Dillon's character in Crash. I don't have a problem with redemption.

We're talking about American movies. That's all we do. Right, right. I don't have a problem. I mean, true, this movie is once again made by a British-Irish person that thinks it's American, but whatever. That doesn't bother me at all. I mean, in the scheme of all that's wrong with this movie,

it is one of its problems. But I actually, it's not the fact that he's redeemed. It's more, it's more that, the ways by which this movie considers redemption, not even completed, but how it thinks of redemption as a, as a worthy project for this character to partake it. And at the same time, you know, the see, the point at which there's a, there's this weird mix of the violent stuff, the, the, the racism, the sort of weird small town quirky stuff. This is a guy, Martin McDonough, who is,

when he's working on the stage, a lyrical thinker about human interaction in some ways. I mean, he's got raised problems on the stage too. But I do think that his attempt to apply his theatrical project to a movie is interesting. I just don't know I don't know where this movie is going and I don't know where it wanted to go

and so by the time you get to the last shot of this movie which I won't spoil for anybody who hasn't seen but but two characters are on their way to do something and the thing that they're on their way to do is for me the most morally difficult thing in the whole movie right and then the movie ends and I feel like the end of that movie is the thing that pissed me off the most

because it's the hardest thing as a human being to have to dramatize and it just cheap I mean I didn't like anything that came before that last shot or that last sequence but it affirmed how bogus and counterfeit everything

that led up to that sequence was I didn't believe this as a small town in America. I believe that as a small town on a sound stage in some man's mind. Okay, let me interrupt you though. Because

Martin McDonough's previous two films are in Bruges and seven psychopaths. Purposefully absurdist, ostensibly humorous movies that are very violent and reaching for the ceiling in terms of plausibility.

This movie, for some reason, largely I think because of the context in which it was released, is being made to seem as if it is more meaningful than his previous two movies. Now, part of that is the cognoscenti and the intelligent people of the world

interpreting it, and part of it is the way that the movie is presented by a studio, and part of it is the way that he discusses it when he's being interviewed. It's a collection of all of those things. But do we have to accept that? Or can we say that this movie is more frivolous, and set aside whether it should witness in this picture?

Is it important? Does it have to be, do we have to care about it in this context. Well, I mean, the movie's playing with dynamite in a way that, for example, in Bruges, I can't find any, I don't think of anything in Bruges comparing to a movie about a rape murder and... Can I suggest a counterpoint? The movie opens with the murder of an awful priest. And it's completely a reflection of Catholic guilt and also the awfulness of the Catholic Church. That is a very heavy concept.

that is made to seem funny and about the anxiety of an assassin. Right. And that, to me, is different than a woman trying to explain why her daughter was raped and murdered, totally outside of the movie, combined with a police department that has a history of violent racist tactics, combined with all the other million things going on, the relative lawlessness of this middle American town.

That to me is like, that to me is, I mean, I think he also knows when he writes that into a script that he's dealing with big American themes. It is very much an algorithmic, what is wrong when America? Gender, race, small town America. I don't know. I think the movie inserts itself into a big question, a big conversation, and then it isn't quite up to the task of that conversation. But I don't know. Like, for me, the problem is not Sam Rockwell's character having a kind of moral problem.

pivot to caring about the violence at the heart of the movie. That to me is not implausible. He is a policeman. I do think some part of him cares about justice, but it's more him in the context

of the rest of the film throwing people out of windows with no repercussion. It's just like I don't understand this world and this world, right? I just don't get it. It's the movie's moral framework that irritates me too.

And I, you mentioned this pre-seen and in Bruges. My bogus alarm goes off in three billboards when he basically takes that scene and just implants it in this new movie. Where Frances McDormand, there's a priest in the house who's come to call on Mildred to basically tell her to calm the fuck down

and chill out and her son is there. And I mean, this is a, you know, old, your classic priest. I don't know what he's doing in this town. What is anybody doing in this town? Great point. What is the guy from Spotlight doing in the middle of Avenue, I don't know. Anyway, this guy's there sitting at her dining room table, and he's trying to like make her, like, allow her to see reason.

And Frances McDormons' character, Mildred Hayes, decides to unleash holy hell verbally on this priest. it's a speech that comes from nowhere except some writers' awareness of a larger problem that he is far more familiar with in his own life, which is priest abuse and pedophilia in the Catholic Church. It's authentic in the sense that it sounds credible, but in the context of this other movie, it just sounds like, like, I don't know, like another movie just like farted or something. in a scene that didn't need the gas.

She also uses the Bloods versus the Crips as sort of like a cudgel to explain her anger and death, which is not a good choice. It's like, it's almost like, I mean, I have expressed this suspicion before, but it really is like this guy was given a stack of things that happen in America, and he worked with a team of people to be like,

Bloods and Crips, let's just put that over here. We're going to take Clarence Thomas Thomas, and put him over here. Police racism. Let's try to figure out a way to bludged and crypts that. We'll put that over here. Got to get the priest again because I know how to do that. What are some things that we can use to signify

that Mildred is of the people? Like a normal... We'll get her to wear some coveralls. We'll do, like, get to research that. Get the costume designers on that. And what is a way that this sort of very plain American woman can express her outrage and get law enforcement

men to act. She should use the computer? She should use the internet? Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Don't do that. She should not have a video that goes viral. She should pay money that she doesn't have to shame the police captain with some fucking billboards that don't even

light up, right? I mean, that somebody can burn down, which they do when they don't like them. I just feel like... Okay, there's an expectation that both Francis McDormand... I'm sorry. I just... I like the idea that if they flashed, you would be fine.

I mean... How come? Chief Willoughby. Let's, okay, it's understood, though, I think, that Francis McDormant and Sam Rockwell are likely to win in their categories. Best actors and best supporting actor. When did that get decided? Again, at the beginning.

Yeah, that's been the most frustrating part of this season, that there's been no change. Right. So even if Three Billboards does not win Best Picture, there's still a coronation moment, Francis Morderman will likely go on stage and she will thank Martin McDonough and she will valorize the message of this movie.

I just wish she were better at these speeches. I ever seen it's a really small point and part of a much larger point? It's not. It kind of validates the whole thing because listen, the movie doesn't make any sense. Everything you just said is true. If she were the only one winning, how would you feel?

If it were just for her and nothing else, I mean, I won't speak for you. No, no, no. I mean, I'd be fine with that. Yeah. I should say, I saw this, I don't know when you guys saw this. I saw this movie in August. Okay.

It opened in, it opened in November. Well, no, I'm not, it wasn't, you're a very fancy person. I'm clearly not bragging everybody. You guys should be paying me for seeing it. Yeah, I'm sorry about that. But I saw it, I didn't know who made it. I didn't, and when it was over, I was like, oh, okay, well, that's why it all, none of it makes any sense.

The person is an American. And it's not to say that a non-American person can't tell searingly true and accurate stories about this country. It happens all the time. We just had 12 years of slave win best picture. We can even, we can start there. I just, there just, it was something just off to me.

And so when I left there, it was like, oh, well, too bad for them. Sorry, sorry Fox Searchlight. Better luck next time. I really thought that. I was like, I don't know what I'm going to tell those guys when they ask. I'll think of something. Yeah. I mean, I just didn't think.

I thought, like, Robert Benton, I thought of Robert Benton, the maker of, like, places in the heart, Norma, if that guy had basically taught a screenwriting class to a bunch of Europeans who also didn't, like, but Robert, Robert Benton couldn't speak whatever language the class was in. So it was translated for the, people in the class, that's this movie. It's just totally, totally bogus. But if Francis McDormon wins, I'm fine, but now we have to have the Francis McDormon conversation.

And the speeches are so bad. The speeches are... Representation. Let's talk about that, though, because she's already won an Oscar. I think she's nominated four times in her career. She won for Fargo in 96. And I think to this point, she had kind of one of the great reputations in Hollywood, because she was one of the only people that you could reliably trust just to not bullshit you. She would get on stage,

and she would be wearing whatever she chose to wear, then she was not, you know, parroting that Jivon She had dressed her up that night. She was just like, I got this at the gap, and I didn't do my hair, and this is who I am. And this is the person that I am, and this is what is important to me. It is acting, and it is my career,

and this movie I worked on, and that's it everything else is bullshit. And now, she has become this avatar for a problematic movie, And she is really riding hard for it. She is really making an effort to say, this movie matters. Does that change her perception? I mean, wait, what is the desired answer to that question?

You know what I only write the question. Because, you know, there's a version of this movie that is like, oh, Frances McDermann voted for Trump. That's not, that's, but you know, but you know, but you know that some of the unsophisticated arguments against this movie are trying to trump it. I, that is not how I feel about this movie does not work as a movie. It is not work as a movie of ideas. It is, I am not inserting this movie into any political discourse that is currently happening.

The people who love this movie are doing that. And some of the people who hate it, I, I object to its doing that because it's not worthy of this moment. It's not sophisticated enough to speak to any of the shit really happening. I'm eager to read somebody, I'm sure the New York Review of Books in March. somebody will try to find a way to make the argument this movie actually is doing the very things we're saying it doesn't. But Francis McDormand being the poster for this movie, the spokesperson for how good she believes this movie is,

that doesn't bother me at all. She's in the movie. She has no choice. It's not going to change the way I feel about Francis McDormon. Yeah, I think the thing for me is that she has always supposed she was the cool Hollywood person. She didn't care. She was not actory.

and the juxtaposition of the way this film is being received, and her speeches, which is Cam already noted, they involve agents, they involve, I'm here, and this is my time, and I want more from her. And I want more from her as a person, and I have thought about the performance. It would make it easier for me to stand by the performance if she were more aware.

She did say, stop giving me stuff, and give them to give some stuff to the young people. That's true. I mean, she's still relatively cool. She does know she's in best actress though, by the way, right? Where young people always win, and she should be like, thank God! You give it to me. That's a good point.

I have one last thing I feel like we need to bring up, which is that, Wesley, you wrote a very powerful piece about this movie a few months back for The New York Times, and Sam Rockwell's dad took issue with that piece. Yes. What was that experience like seeing a comment from one of the performers of a movie on your story? It was the most civilized comment I was made aware.

All he said was, I've seen this movie and I like it. And I'm the father of the guy who plays Jason, the cop in the movie. I'm proud. Should we have invited him here today? Well, I will tell you, I used to work with Pete Rockwell at the San Francisco Chronicle. Oh. And he was a delightful man. And he might not remember this.

But he wanted me to know that when, I'll never remember which movie it was. It might have been Charlie's Angels full throttle. But I don't remember. remember which, it might not have been that. But he was in some movie, and he was so proud of his son being in this movie that he had somebody, he was too proud to do it himself because he knew he shouldn't, just because you shouldn't do that to critics. But he had somebody come and, like, tell me that, like, he was really proud of the work

his son did in this movie. And Sam Rockwell had made, like, a handful of movies at that point. This was, like, 1999 or 2000. And I never forgot that he's so proud of his son. It doesn't bother me at all. That's how this goes. Like, of course you're not going to agree with everything I say. I think Sam Wackwell is fine in this movie.

That is the worst category, and I wish him well. I so don't care who wins supporting actor with all due respect to all five very fine nominees. And also Army Hammer. So that doesn't bother me at all. I really, I really, I love you. I have to. It doesn't, it doesn't, it doesn't,

bother me. I think it's great. I mean, I'm I don't want to say I'm rooting for Sam Rockwell, but as a career, as an actor, I'm really fond of him. It's time. No. It's not saying. It's not.

It's fine. You know, I, I, the problem's not him. The problem, for me, it's just, it's a bad movie. I agree with Wesley. My central frustration with the arguments over this film have been that for those of us who haven't been fond of it,

we've sort of been written off as just raising political or social objections, but just at the level of form, I don't care about this movie. If it were a better movie formally that we're still thorny and I were still battling against it, I would still say that there were problems, but I would attribute them to

taking on a difficult question and the difficulty of taking on a difficult question and taking it seriously. And I just don't think that this movie is worth that conversation, which is why I'm frustrated that like everyone everyone in my life wants to argue about this movie no matter what side they're on it because I'm just like I really I wish I could quit this movie you know I this is I mean again this is I mean comparing it to crash is a really great idea because Crash really does kind of satisfy a lot of negative feeling that I a lot of sort of negative negative visceral feeling that I enjoy getting from a movie that doesn't work right it's not Not just, I mean, Three Bowboards is bad, but it's not the worst movie you've ever seen. Crash is the worst movie you've ever seen, especially if you're an American, or a housekeeper, or a cop, or a car, or a fire.

It's the worst movie you've ever seen. And it just, it just so satisfies so many things that are so good to feel bad about. and three billboards doesn't come close to making me feel that way. Do you guys? It's confusing. It's really confusing. It is confusing that it is a Best Picture nominee. My opinion, which is the least relevant as the sole white man on this panel,

is that I think it's not bad. That is the whitish response to that movie. You possibly could have virtually no interest in defending it. And I am very interested in the dialogue around it. I just think it is a clear victim, for lack of a better phrase, of polarity, of a moment in which the way that we discuss things is slides from one end to the other and there is no middle. And I think, Cam, what you're saying is right, which is like, it's okay, this movie's just not good. Like, it might just be not good. That doesn't mean it's a flaming tire fire that then catches on three billboards and then burns in the night sky.

It doesn't have to be that. It can just be like, not that great. Or maybe you can be like, I kind of liked it. Yeah, bad masterpieces are hard to come by, and I feel like we... But this is where we are, though, right? Like, every year there has to be some movie. Right.

And I was, in our pre... When we've talked about the shape of water, I'm really dreading that, like, there's some energy out there that needs it to be that movie. And I can't allow that to happen. Not a movie about a fish and a woman directed by a Mexican.

It just can't happen. So let it be this movie that really is trying to do something about now, but is failing. But I don't know that it has to happen at all. I knew we were crazy when we were fighting over La Land. I knew America was broken and really needed some time on the therapy couch when we were fighting over fucking La La Land. I mean, that's the thing. It's actually not a victim of the polarization. It's benefited from it.

It's right. La La La Land was a victim of polarization. And I don't even like La La Land. that much, but I'm not crazy. It's a fine movie. And some, it's really good. That ending, man, gets me every time. I mean, the ending gets an Oscar.

Not Barry Jenkins' Oscar, but an Oscar. It gets best director, which it actually won. I just feel like, I just feel like we've got to have better stuff to do. I just don't want to fight over La La Land or three billboards. It's not worth fighting about. Crash.

That is a movie worth fighting. dying. Thanks for checking out that segment about three billboards. We're going to transition now into another conversation. Cameron Collins is going out. Chris Ryan is subbing in, and we're going to chat a little bit about the shape of water and whether it really could win a fish sex movie,

Best Picture at the Oscars. Guys, there's only one juggernaut this year at the Academy Awards. Only one movie that has 13 nominations, one short of the all-time record. There's only one movie that is about fish sex, and that movie is the juggernaut of the Academy Awards. It's called The Shape of Water. It's written and directed by Giermore del Toro.

And pundits, experts, odds makers, and maybe Wesley Morris, think it's going to win best picture. What will that mean if a movie about fish sex wins best picture? First of all, look, we got to stop calling. I mean, I know it's like a great shorthand for what the movie is. But isn't it, I mean, it is about fish sex. It's about fish sex. Not only that, it's about the desire for fish sex.

Right. But the punchline, of course, is, I mean, I don't want to... There's a payoff that I won't ruin for everybody. Sure is. Pay off, not payload. She's Louise. Anyway. Immediately started looking at my fingernails.

It's like a nervous tick. I just feel like this movie is such a weird. Like, I don't know how we decided that this was it. I mean, we don't know anybody who loves this movie? Has anyone ever met anyone who loves this movie? Because I think that there are people who love, actually love, almost every other Best Picture nominee. Tons of other movies this year.

Real actual passion. Even for Three Bullboards, even for Dunkirk, even for Darkest Hour. Nobody loves this movie. The people who love it are people who make movies. And it's because the reason it has so many nominations and the reason it has the support of so many guilds is because it touches a lot of different parts of movie making.

a lot of different aspects of storytelling that I think people who make movies really respond to. And this happens every year. We find movies La La Land was literally the example of this last year. La La Land was an achievement, kind of a cross frame. It had great sound. It had great music. It had great dancing.

It had an interesting script, interesting performances. And when you have the tick-tac-toe, it's not something singular like Phantom Thed where you're like, whoa, these performances. Whoa, that script. It ticked all the boxes. And I think it's possible that a movie can be well-liked enough. to become the most powerful.

Yeah, that's good enough. The Sally Field argument. Right. It's funny, that's a great question, Chris, because I actually, I don't know anybody who loves it either, but I know lots of people who like it. I'm one of those people,

which is why I'm willing to speak on its behalf as a... Which you have been doing. I'm in the movie's congressman. Emerge from the Wall. Yes. The King of Atlantis. I just... I didn't feel it.

Throw a trident down. I accept. I accept. I'm willing to be that person. Wait, because, I mean, well, the other factor in this is Guillemadal Tore himself, right? Like, it's people like him a lot. It is, I think everybody voting in the academy knows that he, basically, this is the last, this is the last Pokemon you need to, like, have a whole set, right? Yeah.

Sure. We're really mixing our creature metaphors here. Alfonso Quaron has an Oscar, Eniattu has two Oscars. It's a nice thing to give, it's more than nice, he earned it. I think it is just an interesting thing that this love story is going to be the thing. It could potentially be the thing that wins best picture. I have a good sense of how you guys feel about the stories that Giromo Del Toro tells. But before you share those feelings,

maybe Wesley you can help us understand what it is that Del Toro does why people think he's such a master filmmaker. Well, part of it is what you were saying before about the movie aspect of his... The moviness of his movies, right? He is a person who is... The only other person I can think

who the Academy likes in this way is Tarantino. A person whose relationship to the world is through the movies first. And I always find that to be, I mean, with a good director, looking at the world that way, can be really interesting, right?

I mean, this movie, if it's about something other than fish sex, is about, it's in some ways about taboos and discrimination and, you know, the ways in which the government is an active agent

in proliferating those problems, right? It's presented in the hokeyest sort of B-movie terms, but if this movie has something that it's arguing for, it is kind of, I mean, on its face, interracial relationships, but also something as corny as destiny, as it turns out. I like that. Any of this resonating with either of you guys? No, not all.

I can't believe that in a year like this, with the movies that we have in this Best Picture category, that the allegory is actually going to win. That the movie that's one step removed from actually saying something that is essentially drawings being stuck up on a wall and the wonder of what we don't understand is going to win when we have all these movies,

whether it's something from the 19th set in the 1940s, something set in a slightly altered reality or something told from the 1990s, is going to be the movie that we choose to say that's the best picture, the one that's sort of just about this fantasy land of government conspiracies an amphibious men.

It's like why, it just seems like completely out of step with the times. Yeah, this is the no creature's couch. Yeah. Which is something

that's Chris has died on this argument for a while of just like, why does it have to be a beast? But I feel that way. It extends to Paddington. Oh. Wait.

Oh, wow. That's, come on. Come on. Easy. This segment needed a villain. Yeah, it's true. That's fun. Doesn't make it less of a beast.

I'm still not interested in his narrative. But he's got a little accent, too. Yeah, he doesn't have a soul, though. Oh, man. Oh, boy. Okay, I stand with you. You know that, right?

I'm sitting here with you. No beast. But to go back to Wesley's point, even if it is, it is well-made. It is a love story. I am, it's hard for me to resist a romantic story like that. And it's nice, except why does he have to be a damn fish? And why does he have to look like that?

And I understand why, but I don't need that extra supernatural layer. And it takes away from me. But then what movie? Then it's like a John Cusack movie without the TV. I love John Cusack movies. But they were not having an Oscars Congress. It was cards against humanity card now. With all the different little elements of it

where it's just like, what if the neighbor was gay and what if the person was mutant? What if the guy was a fish? And Michael Shannon is Michael Shannon. And it's just like ultimately it scans like basically like Tim Burton without a sense of humor. Tim Burton. No sense of humor. Wait, I feel like Tim Burton doesn't have sense of humor.

Well, he stopped having one about 20 years ago. Yeah, right. It died in Mars attacks. Or maybe Ed Wood. Maybe that was the last time. I think Walberg killed it on Plano the Apes. Probably. Anyway.

I don't know. I really like this movie without loving it, but I also, I want to defend and be in favor of the thing. It's a Gilno Taurus movie. Like, there's no, I mean, there's a sort of movie-to-movie argument to make against his movies, I guess if you're inclined to do that. But I just don't want this elevated

to something that it was never meant to be in the first place. This is not like beating up on something that is your classic Oscar-Bate movie. Whatever we're talking about has happened to this movie. Nobody involved with the making of this movie asked for it to happen. Sure. And so here's how I see it.

It's Del Toro's Departed. It's a movie that is after his masterpiece, which was not properly recognized in its time, which I think was Pan's Labyrinth. Pan's Labyrinth, which was... Devil's Backbone! Also a great film. Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for many Oscars,

and that was sort of a coronation for Del Toro as a great director. And it didn't really win very much. And it was a movie that was allegorical, but also very real because it was set in wartime, and it felt very specific about what it was like to be in Spain at that time. Because it was lightly passed over,

we have to wait 10 more years to now officially recognize him. The same way we had to wait a lot of. long time for Martin Scorsese to be recognized for The Departed, which is a little bit of karaoke Scorsese, fun as that movie may be. So now we're finding this one where everybody who hates del Toro movies has this karaoke del Toro movie and they're like, this is why this isn't good. He just tells fables with creatures and I'm not interested in that. And everybody else who's like, oh, like his movie's just fine. That was a rude impression of us. But also, everything you said is

true. So it's fine. That's how I feel. But it is that. And I think... That is well pushed. Yeah. That may be true. But I would also speak, it's not just shape of water. it's not just that a del Toro movie is being recognized. If I can speak for you, it's because we like other movies this year a lot. You can make an argument in which this movie, if you're putting it up against, say, like, Jedi, and Lady Bird comes out in March, and it's beloved, but doesn't have the legs, and maybe Get Out doesn't catch on as this kind of cultural phenomenon that it did, and it's a February horror movie, and how could it possibly an Oscar movie?

And Phantom Threat doesn't exist. Yeah, I mean, there's all sorts of sliding doors realities in which this makes sense as a Best Picture nominee, but not this year. Right. As a nominee? No, as a favorite. As a favorite. As a favorite.

And we don't mean, like, we can get into the three billboards thing later, but that, even for all the issues that people have had with it, I feel like the conversation around it is an actual conversation. It's not like this kind of like, well, God, the sound design is great, you know? You're a regular old guy, though. You're just a man who makes podcasts and content all day. You're just thinking about the world, but you don't make movies. And people who make movies do actually think about those things.

And that's actually why this movie has a serious chance to wait. Yeah, we were talking earlier about the post and why the post has been overlooked. And everyone on the couch really liked the post. And part of that is because we're journalists and we like the process of it. And we're like, oh, this movie's close to us, we recognize it.

It does all these things really well. I'm an Oscars preview host. I'm not too much. But, you know, I do think some of it is also, that's great for everyone who, I'm glad that this movie exists for them and that they could recognize the craft in it. But I didn't really like watching it as much as the other movies,

and I don't want it to win Best Picture. And that's as simple as that. That is perfectly legitimate. Sean, your rationale is really good if the Oscars is a luncheon. You know what I mean? Like, your rationale makes sense. If there were 1927. If we're not talking about this for months leading up to in weeks afterwards.

But the fact of the matter is, is that despite being voted on largely behind closed doors, it's an open door ceremony. It's an open door speculative event. So I think that that's why you're seeing people really sort of buck against this, you know, this embracing of a movie that people are like, I don't mind being upset. I just want the movie that wins to make a point, to take a side. I want to be on the other side of a fence, not being like, who it's going on over there on this tree,

you know? Well, let's just talk a little bit about how it could win. And I think if La La La Land had won last year, my perspective is that I would have felt 100% certain that the shape of water was going to win, because it would have indicated that the code of the Oscar hasn't changed. Moonlight winning, redefined what we thought could happen. But Oscar voting,

especially the best picture voting, is very complex and very slightly difficult to understand because it's not just who got the most votes. It is who got the most votes if the winner has more than 50% of the votes. However, with nine nominees,

that very rarely happens. And so then what happens is the voting leads to preferential balloting, which means that the movie that gets the lowest number of votes is removed, by call me by your name or the post or darkest hour

oh darkest hour darkest hour by darkest hour yeah it will get more votes than call me by so if you remove darkest hour and then those votes then slide up to the number two spot and we're essentially pulling from second place votes and those second place votes are tallied with

first place votes and and because of that guild strength because the writers guild the producers guild costuming special effects sound editing all of those categories represent the body, and the movie also has multiple acting nominations, which means it's very strong among the SAG group.

It really has a strong chance to win, as much as we want, get out to win, or Lady Bird. This is how you elect a French president. It doesn't seem like how you decide best picture. What would you do instead? Well, I don't know. I think that that sounds like a really representative idea of energizing the entire voting block, and I think that that ultimately probably more years than not will lead to, like, really interesting and creative races

and in some ways maybe not the same spectacle as last year, but something that is genuinely surprising. I personally do not think that this is much as a rap as maybe it sounds like we're saying. We're all talking about what a letdown it's going to be or some of us are if it wins.

But I actually just even anecdotally don't think it's that locked up. I think one of five movies could win, right? Yes. When's the last time we've been here? Most unpredictable. I mean, last year was pretty close too.

I actually, you know, my crazy opinion is based, like, knowing how the voting works. I think Hidden Figures came in second, not La La La Land. Oh. I really believe that. And I, I mean, I can't be proven, so I can just keep saying it all day. But I do, I think that movie probably came in second. And I think this year, I think it's going to be one of those five movies, and it could be shape of water, but I definitely, I think it's even,

I would say it's evenly split among those five minutes. You know what I'm saying? Unfortunately not phantom thread, but, you know, one of my top three, that's in there. We watched the Oscars together last year and there's like almost like a sort of sense memory

that I have of the anticipation of turning the Oscars off because as soon as La Lala Lamb won, I would be like, we're done. You know, there's something about if shape of water wins, that will be the turn it off, we're done. It got it.

You said this was going to happen. It got the most nominations. It got all these Guild Awards and then it won. The excitement comes from the possibility of four other movies. If Dunkirk wins, we're going to have all sorts of arguments about how we never saw this coming, even though there were some rumblings. In July, that was your best picture winner. Oh, yeah. And then if Get Out or Lady Bird wins, if there's going to be, or if Three Billbirds win, it's going to be this huge storm of, not controversy, but I think conversation about what it means.

I just think it would be nice if one of those four movies won rather than the movie that's gonna make us all flip the television off immediately. It does seem possible, right? It does seem that the shape of water could be rewarded in the technical categories. It seems like a lock that Del Tora will win Best Director, which I have no problem with.

And then Best Picture seems the most open in terms of... Based on what? Based on feel. Feal and the preferential ballot, and the last couple years when some of the technical and director categories have split from Best Picture. a bit more. Right.

Can I also like just make one other like, isn't this interesting case or shape of water? Keep trying. Keep trying. I mean, find me another best picture winner

or serious best picture contender that is also in many ways a genre movie. And I mean... Aside from Get Out? And this year there are two. Yeah. And find me another year

where that's been an option. Right? Right. And then to have that genre movie, a movie, like a genre type of film, a type of movie that, you know, five years ago would have been passed over. I mean, nobody, nobody was thinking at the Oscars about Del Toro when Del Toro was. You're making an important point, though, that when they expanded the pool to as many as 10 nominees 10 years ago, that was the intention. And in that first year, we got that. In that first year, we got Toy Story 3, and we got District 9. Yep. Oh, there's another one, District 9. And those are genre movies. Now, Toy Story 3, excuse me, maybe Up.

Toy Story 3 and Up was the first, Up came first and then Toy Story 3. Right. In successive years, there were two animated movies nominated, and also District 9 in that very first year. And those are closer to the kinds of movies that the Academy wanted to recognize. Populist fun genre movies. It could be more that this is a trickle-down effect of the tectonic shift that we've been seeing over the last 10 years, where less movies are being made.

They put more money into these bigger tempoles, superheroes, cosmic movies. And then the trickle-down is the genre movies become prestige, and then the dramas just become A-24 movies. No shots at our friends at 8-24. No, I love them. What I'm saying is that, like,

you get more movies like The Martian, like Gravity, like Argo, like Dunkirk or whatever, that are in any other year, maybe you'd say, were, you know, a cool space rescue movie, a cool shoot-em-up, or a cool rescue movie, like, spy movie. Like, just an I had fun at the movie. Yeah, exactly.

And are now instead prestige best picture warranting dramas. And out of Africa, and just doesn't exist. You know, that kind of, like, human drama with a slightly wider screen doesn't really exist. This is also the same category, though, that less than 15 years ago gave a Lord of the Rings movie, best picture. It had to. That was a coordination. That's a good point. I forgot about Lord of the Rings.

So, but why did it have to? Because I think it was like a huge achievement. I think that that was like, we're not going to bother with it the first eight years that these movies are being made and then we'll just give it everything the last one. But it was nominated all. Each one of those movies was nominated for Best Picture and that was when there were five options.

Yeah. I just feel like, I don't know. There's obviously been a change in terms of the way we think of what a Best Picture is. I think it's stunning that of those nine movies, Three of those movies are what we would deem classic best picture nominees. Dunkirk, the darkest hour, and the Post. Those are in any year.

Like, when you look at your preview for X year, you can see these three movies on the schedule. Just write, put them in. Your best picture nominees. And think about it this way. It's as many as 10 nominees, and it could be as few as five, based on voting. So imagine a world where the five nominees. this year are the Post Kill me now! Dunkirk,

darkest hour, the shape of water, and three billboards outside of Amazon. Oh my God, I just... What would be the story of the Oscars? I love the Post. Yeah. You know, what's interesting is I wonder if in future Oscar campaigns, the failure, quote unquote, of the

Post and Dunkirk to really get traction will make other people be like, we should take a run at this. Because I remember back in June or whenever the first set photos of the Post came out, people were like, they shouldn't even have the Oscars this year. Yeah. You know, they should just like FedEx these statues to Spielberg-Hankson Street now. And it's like, it's a completely forgotten movie

in terms of the awards conversation. Well, let's use that to pivot forward a little bit then. I think Blumhouse and Universal were incredibly savvy about the way that they positioned get out all year. This was like a really tactical campaign that they pulled off. And we have a movie that has some similarities right now that is dominating that it's called Black Panther. That already, after just two weeks into release,

People are like, this movie should be nominated for Best Picture. And there's a little bit of a blueprint for it now. Do you think that with the Logan Adapted Screenplay nomination, a lot of the frustration over Wonder Woman not being nominated this year? And dark, dark, don't forget the dark night bitterness that still, right, still causes to our culture. Yes, an unheeled wound. I mean, yeah, it's true.

Are we going to see, are we going to be having this conversation about can Ryan Cooler do it one year from now? Listen, here's the thing about Black Panther. This is going to, wait. Okay. Fortunately, you're saying this. Yeah. Oh, come on.

I feel like, how do I put this? I feel like he should have done, I feel like Creed should have done better when Creed came up. Yes. I think that in the eyes of whoever didn't like that movie or liked it but didn't love it or shape up watered it. Don't, I loved Creed. Don't look at it.

No, no, no, I just, but I do think that it was, it was a movie that a lot of people liked and they thought, I don't, I mean, I don't want to accuse the, I mean, I don't want to say it was racism that kept that movie from doing better. But I will say that it was something about the presumptuousness people felt Ryan Cougar had in doing to rot into the Rocky Legacy. It's a huge sports movie thing. What he did. And there's that. But I also, so, I mean, I think there's a, there's a kind of like, he's in the Oscar ether in some way anyway as a non-nominee. I also think Foodfail Station was a movie that when it happened at Sundance

and then when it came out in summer was also something was a movie that seemed like it was on a train to the Academy Awards. I think, I don't know, I feel like Black Panther, I mean, I was saying this to you earlier. It wouldn't, it definitely wouldn't hurt.

It wouldn't, this is right now after two weeks. I have no time to have this jest date to become more of a cultural thing than it is. But it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't get nominated. It's certainly likely that it could. But I mean, the movie that I was thinking about

in terms of when there were five Best Picture nominees and one of them being the people's slot, which happened pretty much every year there was a people slot movie made by a great director or a promising one or somebody with a clear vision that would, you know, history would prove would last for 20, 34 years.

But Star Wars. Star Wars comes out in 77, is the Best Picture nominee. And I think that Black Panther, I mean, it's much more likely for it to be a Best Picture nominee with this current voting system. Once it's nominated, then what? And does, and just Google get a best director nomination? There's all this stuff that it'll be interesting

to think about as the year goes on. not knowing anything it's coming out between now and December. But when will you guys start your campaign for Black Panther? It wouldn't matter. I don't think it would win anyway. I don't think that the movies, for as much as there's a People nominee, and for as much as I think that we are more and more grappling with the idea

that superhero or genre movies are prestige movies, actually, I just think that everything from Avatar to Dark Night to the lack of, I mean, honestly, I'm sort of surprised that we didn't have a larger conversation about Last Jedi being not. nominated for Best Picture. I think partially that was because of like the entire conversation about that movie became about the backlash, about who was telling the story about that movie. And there was plenty of really good criticism about the film. I think if it was 30 minutes shorter and they never gone to a racetrack like that you might have that conversation. But when we

walked out of that movie the first time we saw it, I was like, I think they might, they might nominate this movie. There's a lot of really like incredible memorable scenes that I probably will remember long past. I remember a lot of the stuff that got nominated. this year. I just don't think that Black Panther, I would think it would be amazing if Black Panther got nominated. I cannot see it being sustained all the way through the year and then being made as like a convincing case of why it should win. And I think also to speak to your universal point, Disney and Marvel have a lot of irons on the fire and running a year long keep Black Panther in mind, which I feel like they did forget out. Can I just say something about Disney and Marvel?

Sure. Black Panther don't need Disney and Marvel to do anything because they got black Black people. That's true. Black people will get that movie nominated for Best Picture if it comes to that. Yeah. I don't think they have to spend, this is the thing that kind of is like nauseating to me about the relationship between the corporate aspect of the academy process and, you know, the popular aspect of the academy process.

And this is the crazy tension, right? That when January comes and, you know, Selma Blair and, you know, Blair and Patrick Wilson are reading the nominees. It's a great look for Patrick Wilson. I don't know why I picked them. Are you shipping them? When they read the nominees and Black Panther isn't there. Given the work I believe black people will do without Disney and Marvel's prodding,

the like sincere belief that this is already one of the best movies of the year. it's going to be some really interesting cultural shit going on if that is over. And it's almost like, I don't, I actually don't like that because it... I'm actually torn. I don't want to say that I don't like it.

But it's because it's new. You know, this idea that you can have like a people's... You can hashtag something into the hospital. Exactly. I mean, there's no precedent for them. There's now a kind of precedent for hashtagging people out of the Oscar. But you like hashtagging a like a movie or a person into them is a really it's a new it's a new thing and it'll be interesting to see a whether it works or happens and B

what happens if it doesn't happen. There's time for me to announce that I'll be leaving the ringer to start my nominate Haley Steinfeld for Bumblebee 2000. I don't think the viewers know what Bumblebee is. I don't think the viewers know what Bumblebee is. That's a big problem for Parenthood. He's about like $150 million. Is she playing a transformer?

No, she's a buddy, a transformer friend. No! Yeah, the Lully Gellon. I literally didn't know what I was. I thought you see it? This is a dope joke and everybody's just like, what's that? I did. This is not viral marketing for Bumblebee.

I'm just, but like, yes, this is a, this went off the rails. There's one other aspect of this conversation. in the same way that Black Panther doesn't need Marvel and Disney to continue its efforts anymore, largely because an audience has found the movie in a big way. Marvel and Disney, as they have become the most powerful, collaborative group in Hollywood over the last 10 years,

have shown absolutely no interest in awards whatsoever. They're the only studio, with the exception of the best animated category, that just doesn't campaign. They just don't care. They are interested in getting people to see their movies and making money. And that's it.

And they are the best in Hollywood at it by far. And I love that. I really do. I mean, I just think the Academy voters should just pick the movies they fucking like. That was my case for Jedi. As opposed to the movies that have been shoved down their throats. Just pick the movies you like. And if you like a movie, tell a friend.

Use your podcast. I know I'm serious. I really believe in this. And I know, I know there's a total historical argument for that hurting all kinds of movies that I like, hurting people of color, hurting women who do shit. I feel like things have to be the way they are for a reason. But there's a kind of absolutist and idealist in me that just wishes the voters with a little bit of prodding,

but not like Weinstein era level harassment of the voting academy, not of women, but although obviously. You're really threatening me here. I just wish it would happen naturally. And I don't know. I kind of missed. It was never really super totally natural, obviously. There's always been campaigning and lying and, you know,

things that go on to get people nominated and stuff. But for the most part, it was very different 25 years ago versus, you know, 25 years later. And, yeah, Amanda was able to power, call me by her name to the Mountain. but not Army Hammer, you know? So it's giving take. Yeah. It's too soon for that. She's still upset.

At the end of the day, does the fish sex movie win best picture? Chris? No. Amanda. No, I'm feeling optimistic. Wesley? Offended Wesley? No.

Oh, but now you're sad. Now I feel bad. No, no, I'm not sad that it might lose. Deltora will win best director. Yeah. make me happy enough. Okay. But despite your very

good craft argument and the branches sort of coming together to celebrate this movie, I just think the numbers are going to be, like, by like, you know, 100 votes are going to be with some other movie. I'm going to say that it does win, and that's going to be a real quagmire for a content

creating company that has to find an interesting way to translate the dullest movie out of the bunch winning Best Picture. And it's a wonderful year. It's not the dullest movie of the bunch! The dark hour. Did you see the dark hour? It's darkest hour. Whatever.

Now I'm the darkest hour. Like, come on. It's not the dullest movie of the bunch. You just called it a fish sex movie. How dull... You're saying that he... That is the true achievement of the film. They made a fish sex movie boring.

Yeah. Thank you so much for listening to today's show. For more Oscars coverage, please go to Theringer.com where you can find all manner of writing and podcasting. I'm also making an appearance on Against All Odds with the Great Cousin Sal talking about the odds and the races. And please be sure to tune in on Sunday night

where I'll be joining the watch co-hosts, Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan, as well as Amanda Dobbins, breaking down everything that happens on Oscar night. And please tune in later this week. On Friday, I'll have a new episode of The Big Picture with Francis Lawrence, who is a famed music video director and also the director of a few Hunger Games films

and I Am Legend, and he's got a new movie with Jennifer Lawrence, his old acting partner, called Red Sparrow, aka Sex Spies, which is what it's known as in the Ringer Office. So please tune in for that and see you next week.