The Press Box - Oscar Season: The Snubs and Surprises of the Academy Awards Nominations | The Big Picture (Ep. 417)

Episode Date: January 23, 2018

The Ringer’s Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins, and K. Austin Collins react to the 2018 Oscar nominations. They break down the front-runners, the most shocking snubs, and what to look forward to come March 4. Also: the Academy’s apparent love of fish sex. https://www.theringer.com/2018/1/23/16923366/academy-award-nominations-get-out-lady-bird-three-billboards-shape-of-water-snubs-surprises Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey guys, do you have big plans for the new year? Squarespace makes it easy to turn those ideas into a unique website. Showcase your work, blog, or publish content, even sell products and services of all kinds in just a few clicks. You can customize everything from look and feel to settings and products using beautiful templates created by world-class designers. And there's nothing to install, patch, or upgrade ever. Head to Squarespace.com for a free trial.

And when you're ready to launch, use the offer code Big Picture to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. And the Oscar goes to. And the Oscar goes to. Okay, dokey. The Oscar goes to. And the Oscar goes to. There's a mistake.

Moonlight, you guys won best picture. This is not a joke. I'm afraid they read the wrong. I'm Sean Fennacy, editor-in-chief of the ringer, and this is the big picture. Good morning to Paul Thomas Anderson and no one else. Oscars Day. Actually, I have two more people I'd like to say welcome to, and they are Amanda Dobbins, culture editor of The Ringer, and K. Austin Collins, film credit for the ringer. Cam, Amanda, what's up?

Good morning. Sean, good morning and congratulations to you. What a great day for PTA in the world. Guys, it's Oscars Day, one of my favorite days of the year, and I'm so glad you're joining me to talk about the Oscars. Interesting lineup of nominees. Let's start right at the top. The most important category, best picture. I'm going to read the nominees. And then we can discuss them, break them down, and you can share your feelings about what we did and didn't get today. So, from the top, call me by your name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, the Shape of Water, and three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. Cam, what was your immediate reaction upon seeing the first nine nominees for Best Picture?

You know, honestly, I usually hate most of the nominees for Best Picture, and I was shocked that this is a year. Not shocked that this was a year that I didn't hate most of them, but I was pleased that I was right about so many of the good ones getting nominated. And some surprises, actually. But the ones I was rooting for are there, thank God. What are those movies? I mean, I'm rooting for Phantom Thread, Get Out, Lady Bird, and to everyone. surprise, at least relatively other things nominated, Dunkirk, which is not a movie that I love, but it's a movie that I respect enough.

It's the best Churchill movie nominated. But not the best Churchill movie this year. No, not the best Churchill movie. I'm sorry, it's not the best Dunkirk movie this year. Sorry, yes, right, exactly. What movie is that, Amanda? That would be their finest by Lone Sherfig, which was released earlier. leave in March and is about the making of a film about Dunkirk. So out of three Dunkirk movies

this year, I'm going one, their finest to Dunkirk and three Darkest Hour, which I agree should not be in this mix. Yeah. Their finest not acknowledged, Dunkirk and Darkest Hour are acknowledged. Amanda, what about you? What were you excited to see? What were you frustrated to not see other than Lone Sherfigg's historical drama? I would generally agree with Cam, which is that I was so surprised, particularly by Phantom Thread, which I think we all enjoyed and all did not expect to see in this list. And then, and also by Lady Bird, which was my favorite film of the year. And I think we knew it would be nominated, but still you don't want to count your chickens before they hatch. The Oscars are, you know, the Oscars will always betray you. Exactly. But beyond being

surprised by Phantom Thread, I was so generally pleased by the nominations that, I almost feel like I've been tricked. I worry that I've become too complacent and that things are, I'm happy about these. And that seems to be setting me up for disappointment somehow. That's where I am on the emotional spectrum. Yeah. I had a similar reaction. I do think it's worth noting that it's understood.

I think the conventional wisdom is that the shape of water and three billboards outside of being Missouri are the frontrunners for Best Picture. And those are not two titles that you guys named, nor would I name them among my favorites in this group. I think the Phantom Thread nomination is what really threw people for a loop because virtually no one was predicting that the film was released the latest out of any movie this year. I think it's fair to say that it's quite idiosyncratic, even though Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated a few times in the past for his films. But there was some ambient concern that all of the energy that was going towards movies like Get Out and Lady Bird that a lot of young people loved, that felt a little bit different from your sort of historical Oscar fair. would somehow get tweaked or shut out or close that of a series of categories. And that really didn't happen across the board, fair to say? Yeah.

I mean, to your point about Fandom Thread, the fact that it got, I'm looking at a little chart that lists nominees by the number of nominations that they have. And for Fandom Thread to have six, like spread out just one fewer than three billboards, it's just not the kind of thing that I was expecting at all. And for Get Out to have only four, I actually wasn't, I mean, I guess I don't know why I expected it to have more. It's not a technical category movie, but this is a year where it seemed like they were spending the love a little bit, with the exception of Shape of Water getting far many more nominations than anything else. I would agree generally. I think that there are just an unusual number of Best Picture nominees that I personally am really excited about.

And I speak for a lot of people at the Ringer and just kind of. young people who go to the movies. Everyone is very excited about Get Out. Everyone is excited about Lady Bird. Everyone is excited about Phantom Thread. Most people are excited by call me by your name, except for certain people on this podcast. I am. Who would you be referring to? So I'm both happy. And then I had this moment of just wondering if I'm washed now, because I agree with the academy. And does that mean that I'm an old person and the next generation is going to come along and be angry about the choices? You raise an interesting point, which is that in many ways, and I wrote this in a piece this morning on The Ringer, I think that this feels like, if not a cataclysmic, at least a very significant change in terms of what is available to be nominated to people, what feels like it should be a frontrunner or should be in the conversation.

And there were a lot of historic firsts. On the other hand, I think because we've spent six months prognosticating about this, there is, as our producer, Zach Mack said, a bit of a chalk feeling to some of this stuff with the exception of phantom thread, which is just, it's a strange cognitive dissonance between a horror movie directed by a black man is nominated for best picture, but we also just completely expected that. And that's a unique place to be in Oscar history. Historically, we think of dances with wolves as like the ideal Oscar movie. and we're in a different kind of era.

Do you guys agree with that? I mean, yeah. I mean, you know, you're making me think. I was most surprised by Darkest Hour being among the nominees. And another year, I mean, Darkest Hour is sort of like the King's speech of this year. I guess just because it's British in costuming. It's actually literally about the same character as a King's stage. You're right.

Thank you for validating because I was just, man, I was thinking I was being over simple there. But yeah, for that to be the surprise nominee for me is significant, whereas you're right. I totally went into this thinking the Blum House. movie was going to be there, the A-24 movie was going to be there. A little surprised that the Spielberg movie is there actually, which is weird. Which is weird. Yeah, I guess it's worth saying that the shape of water is leading the pack with 13 nominations. It is nominated in almost every sort of artisan category, which is usually a good sign that there's a lot of momentum behind the movie, that there's a lot of support from all of the branches of the academy.

I'm keeping that in mind as we approach the Oscars on March 4th. I suspect that there will be a steady churn towards rewarding Giermo del Toro in the shape of water. But, you know, we have plenty of time to get into that. Before we go to the other categories, though, and parse those, I do want to know what is your single biggest surprise. So, Amanda, why don't you go first? What was the most shocking surprise and or snub if that's a word you enjoy using? It is, and I am going to use snub. The problem is that this is my feelings are a surprise to no one, which is that Army Hammer was not nominated.

and I'm angry. And we can talk a little bit more about the supporting actor category, which is a little, it's very tricky right now and in a way is representative of all of the concerns of this Oscar season. But I, for now, we'll just say that Army Hammer is a delight. It was a joy to have him at awards shows. And I really loved his performance in Call Me By Your Name, which was a film that I enjoyed. And I'm sad that he will not. be recognized. I don't think you're going to miss him at the award show, though. Something tells me he'll be there in a tux. He'll be presenting. He'll be smiling with that lantern jaw. You'll get plenty of army. There's six whole weeks here to go.

That's true, but today I get to be outraged. Cameron, what about you? Mine is petty, but this is a petty question. It's begging me to be petty. I would like to know why John Williams is nominated for the Star Wars score. That was one of the times that I was just like, what is wrong? I mean, even just like for this year, you have to have your John Williams nomination. I get that.

He also made music for a Spielberg movie. Like, why not? It's not memorable music. It's not good music. But he hasn't been memorable or good in a long time. So that's not the, that's not the factor here. It's more just, why are we nominating Star Wars for Star Wars music that we've been hearing from the 70s? That's still just a variation on the same things I've been hearing since the 70s.

It's just this is the era of so much interesting movie music. Trent Rezner you know etc etc it's just why are we doing the John Williams thing still

I'm this is petty this is like a thing that five people care about to be honest but but you know yeah I think that's lame I think that's a sign

that the Oscars in some ways just as progressive as they seem this year are also wedded to their older stodgier choices in many ways still they're respectful choices

there's no way to explain John Williams for Star Wars other than yeah you're alive you're still making music It's a good point. This is John Williams' 51st nomination, which is ludicrous. Insane.

And, you know, I like the Last Jedi score. I also am very fond of The Last Jedi, maybe more so than several occupants of the internet. I thought it was a little strange that they didn't make more of an aggressive push for Best Picture and given the critical reception of the film. But I agree with you that nominating John Williams in the time of Johnny Greenwood is a strange choice. I'll be very curious to see if, um, Greenwood is able to overcome Alexandra Desplot and the shape of water. My pick is Denzel Washington, who was nominated for Best Actor.

And I don't know if it's a snub or a surprise or what the right terminology is, but it doesn't feel right. And that is not my favorite Denzel Washington performance nor my favorite film. And it also, in its own way, feels, I think, a bit Cam, like what you're talking about, which is sort of an old world Oscar mentality where there's, there's a great performer in a thin field, and so they choose to acknowledge him and identify him as one of the best. Now, you know, there are several mitigating factors here. One is that Tom Hanks is in the post, and it's not the best Tom Hanks performance. It's a little bit of a paint by numbers, Hanks, Ben Bradley.

The other is that James Franco, who we should say has been accused of sexual misconduct by a number of people in the course of the last few weeks, was thought to be among the five most likely to be nominated, and he's not nominated today, whether that is as a result of the misconduct allegations or not, it is impossible for us to say. Nevertheless, Denzel is nominated, and that just seems strange, and it feels weird to be calling him out

for being nominated for a movie that not very many people saw, and I don't think very many people liked. The movie disappeared. It did. It's like the first Denzel nominated performance that I can think of where the movie just disappeared. Like, he's gotten random nominations before. I wouldn't, well, random, maybe isn't the word.

I'm thinking of a movie like Flight, where he was actually kind of extraordinary, but didn't really expect him to be nominated, or, I mean, I didn't. But for this, it's just like no one saw Roman, like, who had that screener and thought that that was urgent to watch? Because it was a movie that nobody was talking about. Nobody was talking about it after TIF.

Nobody talked about it when it came out. People on the streets were like, Denzel Washington's in a movie. So it does feel weird to me. I mean, you know, I love Denzel, though. I can't wait to see him. Yeah, I suspect that motivated a lot of, it's a weak category. And then you see Denzel's name and are happy to see his name and write it in.

Watching Denzel at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, I think he is probably as perplexed and or annoyed by the nomination as everyone else. He has not been happy. So that'll be interesting Not much of a press tour From him for this movie I think he knows What must it feel like

To know you're in fifth place In a five-person race at all times That must be a strange feeling And he knows because there's no atmosphere Around that movie whatsoever And you know he's Denzel He's phenomenal He has an Oscar

He deserves everything That he has gotten in his career But there's just something Notably off about this Our boss Bill Simmons Says it's a tragedy That Robert Pattinson Was not nominated for Best

actor for a good time. I agree. Cam, I know you're a fan. I'm a huge fan as well. You know, there's probably a number of other sort of left field choices that we could come up with. But it's unusual and interesting that in a year that is, I guess, considered to be, for lack of a better word, a progressive Oscars year, that the weakest and thinnest field is best actor, which is usually the most loaded. And, you know, it just sticks out in my mind.

Guys, let's jump to Best Director. I'm going to read you the nominees now. Duncurt, Christopher Nolan, get out Jordan Peel, Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig, Phantom thread Paul Thomas Anderson, and the shape of water, Guillermo del Toro.

I think that the headline here is Paul Thomas Anderson, who not many people had tabbed for this. In fact, no one on gold derry.com, the quote-unquote expert predictors of award season had pointed towards Paul Thomas Anderson. Guys, what is your reaction

to this field of nominees? I think this might be the best category. This is very exciting because it, there's something for everyone. It's great to see Jordan Peel in there. It's wonderful to see Greta Gerwig in there. It's great to see Paul Thomas Anderson is a total surprise and very deserving. Christopher Nolan, even if you didn't enjoy the process of experience of watching Dunkirk. It's a technical feat.

You can't argue with it. And it's short. That's so true. It is short and God bless. This is his first nomination. Yes, for his shortest movie, right? We're one of the shortest. Yeah.

I'm just the correlation here, you know, I'm just, you know, very interested. Yeah. And listen, I don't really acknowledge fish sex, but it's good for Guillermo del Toro. It seems to represent a feat of filmmaking. So this is exciting. This is also everyone we want and everyone and no one we don't want, which is great to see. So I'm pleased, this is maybe my favorite category. Cam, how did you respond?

I, so this is the only category where I'm rooting for it. least three people. I'm actually rooting for four people. Pretty much everyone but Caramo, no hard, hard, hard feelings. But I didn't, I didn't really enjoy that movie.

And I'm pretty sure that he's going to win this. It's Best Director is such a, it's treated like a technical category, even though I don't think it really should be. And I think because of the two technical feats, Dunkirk and Shape of Water, Shape of Water is the one that seems to have more momentum. It's sort of both a great category and an anticlimactic for me.

But Jordan Peel, Greta Gerwig, Paul Thomas Anderson, great lineup. You know, this is a category where there's usually someone where I just think, like the dude who directed imitation game was nominated for this. Morton Tildon, you know what he's doing right now? Directing the debut of a J.K. Simmons show on stars. That's how far his star has fallen. Sad. I don't know if that's fallen or I don't even know what that means anymore.

I mean, I'm going to say fallen because that's my opinion on that. But I'm sure he thinks he's doing well. But anyway, you know, I think this category is great. Like, I'm enjoying it. Yeah, I'm excited for PTA, obviously. This is his second best director nomination after There Will Be Blood. And I think he has virtually no chance to win. So that's interesting.

Who knows anymore? Who knows anymore? He wasn't supposed to be nominated. It's very true. I mean, he's not going to win. But like... I think one thing that is a possible side effect of these nominations, is that a lot more people end up watching Phantom Thread

because they see that it got six nominations and then there is a swell and, you know, as Zach pointed out before we started recording, it does tick a lot of the historical boxes and I think it being Daniel DeLuess's swan song or at least purported swan song means that there will be probably

a little bit more sentimental energy behind it than certainly than I thought six hours ago. I do still think this is Gierramald D'Oro's race to lose And it's funny that Giroimo del Toro, who is, you know, a Mexican filmmaker who makes very personal, very unusual monster movies essentially, has been almost denigrated to being sort of like the old world, you know, the old version of what we prize. And there's just something so strange about that because if you watch any of his other movies, even Pan's Labyrinth, which was the last time he was sort of acknowledged as an awards contender, these are really strange fairy tales that he's trying to tell. not, for Christopher Nolan to somehow seem more provocative than Giermel Del Toro has just been a fascinating turn of events for me. Do you think the Academy, I mean, I know it has 13 nominations, I know he's up for Best Director. Do you think the Academy is really into the Fish Sex?

I'm just not convinced that they are. Somehow, I know that all evidence points elsewhere, and I do think he's going to win this category. When you mean into the Fish Sex, like what is that? What I mean is I expect those anonymous Oscar ballot people. And is it Variety, Hollywood Reporter? Hollywood Reporter, yeah. In Hollywood Reporter to say things like, the movie has fish sex in it. This is so ridiculous.

I can't believe people are going for the fifth sex movie. Like in the way that I also expect them to say, well, get out's not really that good. It's just very relevant. And the same thing about Lady Bird. I expect the comments to be, you know, I'm voting for Deltoro because he had the most to do and because I'm sort of over Nolan and PTA will have his chance again and Greta Gerwig and Peel or diversity ones and GDT is the one who's doing the most fantastical or tourist thing and but I really don't like the fish sex. So I'll vote for this but not for best picture.

This is this is what I'm imagining one of them is going to say to a T. Amanda, you're going the other way. You're saying I love fish sex. I love everything about it. The way it was staged, the physical possibilities that GDT showed us, right? I love monsters. Yeah. Little Beasties. I can't even with the Little Beasties. My interpretation of the shape of water has always been that quote artists love another quote artist. And people really find this to be such a moving, creative exploration of what outsiders can do and the imagination.

And so you can see a lot of the actors of the in the guild responding to Sally Hawkins' performance. And you can see people kind of appreciating the imagination. and it sort of seems like director is where that would be rewarded. Yeah. But who knows? Maybe it's just fish sex all the way. I agree completely. Fish sex all the way.

Let's talk a little bit about what I think is the most interesting category, though, not one of the top line categories per se. And that is Best Adapted Screenplay. And here are the nominees for that. Call me by her name by James Ivory, the disaster artist written by Scott Newstadter and Michael A. H. Weber, Logan, written by Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Molly's Game by Amanda's BFF, Aaron Sorkin, and Mudbound, which is written by Virgil Williams and D. Reese.

So there's three headlines here, I think. First and foremost is Logan, which is a comic book movie that is nominated for one of the seven most important Oscars. The second is Mudbound, which features the first ever black woman nominated for this category. And the third is the disaster artist, which is mostly shut out at the Oscars, but somehow managed to sneak its way in here, I think because the authors of the movie devised a very, sort of a devilishly clever adaptation of a complicated book. But, you know, I wanted to get a sense from you guys, if you thought this was interesting in any way. Usually screenplay categories can be a bellwether for other races, and I'm not sure if that's the case this time around. But what did you think, Cam?

You know, I It's funny to feel like To look at both screenplay categories And feel like historically I always relied on the screenplay Brands to be where the weirdos were And to not feel that way Really this year

I mean a lot of these are I mean a lot of these are just best picture picks More so the original screenplay But adapted it's you know Yeah James Ivory called the very name I kind of saw that coming Molly's game Aaron Sorkin It's a lot of words

so there you go he wins for most words most words Logan though is really a pleasant surprise and it reminds me that there was a time in the year when I thought that Logan was actually going to be more of an award season push like I actually

if there were any blockbuster superhero movie or kind of IP movie among Best Picture nominees I expected not Star Wars but Logan because it's the serious comic book movie and I thought that Academy would love to pat themselves in the back that way.

And I think this is the closest to that, maybe. Let me share a theory that I've been working on, that I have been workshopping and I haven't shared yet publicly. That theory is that Darkest Hour took all of Logan's heat and that they are the same movie. If you look at the structure about a powerful man attempting to gain more power as he ages and he sees that he is nearing the end, there's a strong. man that he has to guide around and make sure he makes the right choices. And then there's a young

woman that is essentially supporting him and making sure that he accomplishes his feats. Should Logan be in the darkest hour spot? Amanda, yes or no? No. Wasn't that a good pitch, though? That was great. And I should clarify that I don't think darkest hour should be in the darkest hour split anyway. I have a slightly simpler theory, Sean, which as you noted in your piece today, the collective box office of the best picture nominees is less than the box office of Star Wars, The Last Jedi. And it just, these Oscar nominations are noticeably blockbuster resistant in a way that seems like a choice.

And it just seems that no one really was feeling interested in rewarding superhero movies and or movies that make a lot of money. A strange choice in terms of self-preservation, but that's my best explanation. I have a lot of feelings about that. I'll be very curious to see what kind of atmosphere there is around the Oscars this year. You know, the ratings were down a bit last year. They've been down for the most part over the course of the last decade. And I do think that one of the reasons for that is just because there are a lot of Americans who just don't know even what the shape of water is. You know, that's a movie that it's a frontrunner with 13 nominations and has only made $30 million.

You know, Logan has made $300 million. $100 million. Those movies are largely not represented here. And I don't really agree necessarily with quality and attention being equal. But there is something to be said because I think the original argument around expanding the best – excuse me, I think the original argument around expanding the best picture pool to 10 nominees was the absence of the dark night. And we're still not really in a place where those movies are. are acknowledged in these spaces.

I don't know, Kim. Do you think that that's something that should be happening that feels important? It's something that I would like to happen if only because I, well, maybe this is more a matter of making better movies that cost a lot of money and make a lot of money, making more worthy movies. Of those movies this year, though, I really did think that Logan was, I mean, in this category, as much as I love James Ivory, I was. I would vote for Logan if I were voting.

It is the most interesting challenge in a screenplay. And I just, I'm wondering if there was something about the way that it was campaigned or not. It's here, so someone put some money into setting the screenplay to everyone. But yeah, I wonder if the studios just aren't campaigning these movies very well. I wonder if the visibility just isn't there. I don't know. I'm a little, I would love for more. big Hollywood movies to be a part of the Oscars, not only for the health of that organization,

but also just I would like for big movies to be a part of that conversation. I don't think that the quality movie conversation should only be Indies, even though if that right now is reflecting the way the industry works. I'd like the industry to try harder to make better big movies. And I know, I mean, I think they tried. I think with Logan and War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars in its way, they were getting at something. Those are all better than Transformers, but I would like to be able to think that a movie like Logan,

like it would have been beautiful to me if Logan get out and Lady Bird and calling by your name we're all in the same year kind of anointed. I would like that. We're not quite in that space. We're going to get to the rest of the major nominations, but first let's take a quick break to get a word from our sponsor. Support for today's show comes from Squarespace. Ready to start your new business? Why wait until the new year to set your plans in action?

The future is coming. Make it brighter with Squarespace. With beautiful templates created by world-class designers, Squarespace makes it easy to turn your idea into a new and unique website. Showcase your work, blog, or publish content, even sell products and services of all kinds in just a few clicks. You can customize everything from look and feel to settings and products. And it's all optimized for mobile right out of the box.

So use Squarespace's analytics to help you grow in real time, and there's nothing to install, patch, or upgrade ever. Though if you do have a question, Squarespace's award-winning 24-7 customer support is there to help. A dream is just a great idea that doesn't yet have a website, so make it a reality with Squarespace. Head to Squarespace.com for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch,

use the offer code Big Picture to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That's Squarespace.com, offer code, big picture. Hey, it's Bill Simmons. The NFL playoffs are in full swing, and The Ringer NFL show has you covered for all your pro football needs. Sunday night, get Michael Lombardi and Tate Fraser's rapid reactions on GM Street. On Tuesdays, the Ringer NFL show with Robert Mays, Kevin Clark,

and regular guest, Danny Kelly, break down all the biggest angles on Wednesday. GM Street again on Thursdays, Clark, Mays, and Danny are back at it again. And on Friday, GM Street's Friday focus gives you all the insight you need for gambling, fantasy. And everything else, don't forget about my podcast, too, on Mondays. the BS podcast, Cousin Sal and I playing Guest the Lions. More importantly, the ringer NFL show, subscribe right now on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

We're back on The Big Picture with Amanda Dobbins and Cam Collins. I am Sean Fennessey. And now we're going to talk about the acting nominees at the 2018 Oscars. We're going to start with Best Supporting Actress, which I think is a pretty interesting category. I'll read the nominees. They are Mary J. Blodge from Mudbound, Alice in January. for I-Tanya, Leslie Manville for Phantom Thread,

Lori Metcalf for Lady Bird, and Octavia Spencer for the shape of water. Amanda, what was your immediate reaction when you saw this category? Thrilled for Leslie Manville. Yes. That was the surprise for everyone, and she was fantastic.

And it's great to see her there, and I would love it if she wins. She will not. She will absolutely not. So I was thrilled to see Leslie Manville. I was thrilled to see Mary J. Blige. Yeah. The rest were expected, and there is a sense of inevitability to this category, despite the surprises.

And Allison Janie has been winning all the awards. And I am here to say that I do not think Allison Janie deserves this Oscar. At all. And I say that as a person who is a huge fan of Allison Janney and her career, and she seems like a wonderful woman. But I do not understand this category. I'm, man. I, this is Lori Metcalf's Oscar to me. I mean, I would also love for Lesley Manville to win.

She is my favorite, actually, of this group. But of the people who've been winning things, who've been nominated this season so far, to me it's like Lori Metcalf, it just feels like she's going to be the also-ran. And I just, this is just a category where I'm intrigued by the range of choices and displeased by the fact that there's such a clear front-runner who's the wrong one.

Yeah, and maybe we're speaking too soon because Alice and Janie did win the Golden Globe. She did win the SAG Award. But Itania did not do as well in the nominations as we had perhaps expected. I expected way better. And I think everyone on this podcast is pleased with the general trend of how the itani nominations are going. Yeah. So who knows? But I just don't understand that Allison Janie performance, despite the problems with the movies,

with the movie, if you have them. It's such a, it's easy for her. I don't understand why we're warning. Alison Janie can do those kind of one-liners in her sleep. And I don't get it. I don't get it either. It feels like the kind of performance where if you're ever looking through like IMDB of like previous supporting actor or actress winners, it seems like one of those very dated ones

or you're just like, oh yeah, I guess you would have voted for that in the 70s. This feels like a bird on your shoulder. kind of bitchy one-liner, mean mom role just doesn't feel very contemporary as a choice to me. And I don't mean that in a political way. I just mean that it's like seem-chewy in a way that seems too obvious. Whereas, like, Lori Metcalf, I mean, even every write-up that I saw this morning pointed out that Lori McKaff was the more nuanced or interesting role. So it's clear that we all seem to think that Lori Metcalf here is the one to be paying attention to.

But Allison Jenny just keeps winning. And good for her. her first Oscar, if she wins. I have a question for you, Sean, which is just that Alice and Janie and Margot Robbie were both instrumental in the making of Itania and sort of making that happen. Do you think there's anything to the idea that that is being rewarded rather than their performances? I do think that that is what has been identified in Allison Janney's performance specifically,

which is that she's very, very close friends with Stephen Rogers who wrote the screenplay and the part was written explicitly for her. And if she were to not get it, I don't think that this movie would have happened. And even though what you guys are saying is true, and Amanda, I know specifically you're a long time, Elson Janney Watcher, the fact that it's kind of her hitting her bass notes,

you know, her key notes, a lot of moviegoers are not as familiar with that. A lot of movie makers are not as familiar with that because she, you know, spent a lot of time in the West Wing and is now one of the stars of mom. She's a TV actress, and I don't mean that in a pejorie. sense, but she's largely known for her work on television.

And this is kind of her doing it on a slightly bigger stage. And the lines are written specifically to her cadence. As far as Margar Rabi, I mean, we can get into that a little bit more in the best actress category. She is a producer on the movie. There's never been a woman who's produced a movie and has also been nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars before. So that part of it is interesting.

This category is a little bit of a sore thumb for me because I don't really understand the Octavia Spencer nomination at all. I don't understand that part. It's the most underwritten part in the movie, and it feels like Octavia by numbers. And I don't really understand the Mary J. Blige nomination either. I think that that's probably the least interesting supporting performance in that movie, which I think is a little underrated at this point. And I do, I think it's a good performance, and she's a famous woman, and there's a good story there. But, you know, I wrote last week that I was way more taken with Jason Mitchell's performance in that movie.

I think it's interesting what Carrie Mulligan has to do in that movie. given that that book is about her character, but then the story shifts completely since she becomes kind of a supporting character in this movie adaptation of that book. So, you know, I agree with you guys ultimately that Lori McKaff has the most nuanced role and the most nuanced performance. I think it's also kind of fascinating that essentially it's going to be a race between two people who are best known as TV actresses. I do think that Allison Janney will be rewarded ultimately, though. I have a question for you, though, about – because I – I'm totally on the same page, and I'm wondering, there's this supporting actress rut that Octavia Spencer seems to be in. And I don't just mean in terms of nominations.

This is a category she's been in before. She's won before. But even just, like, the kinds of roles that she's offered or takes and gets recognized for, I'm both, like, incredibly, I mean, to think, like, wow, what a time. when there's a black actress that I can name who's like a sure thing Oscar nominee that's like in a way amazing. But I'm over. I'm just so over. She's in like a weird fish sex movie and she's still playing the same kind of role that she always plays.

It's just weird to me. And that to me is also kind of a damning part of that movie, frankly, a limit to that movie's vision that you really can't imagine anything better for Octavia Spencer than what she's been doing in every other Oscar nominated performance that she's had. but in the midst of a deaf woman having sex with a fish. Wouldn't you love to see what she could do with like a Leslie Manville character and Phantom Threat type role? Absolutely. She hasn't really been given a chance. And who knows why that is. Or Sally Hawkins' role in tape of water.

I would love for Octavia Spencer to, I would love for them to have shared the fish guy. Wow. Or something, something more. The only way to make that movie more perverse would be to add another participant in the fish sex. Something. I know that would risk the number of Oscar nominations it would get. But I think that would be more interesting. But, yeah, I feel a little bit like, sort them is right.

I feel a little bit let down by this, even though it's like I want to celebrate these nominees. But I just feel a little bit, you know, even Mary J. Blige's character and role here, sort of like, there is a way to get nominated for Best Supporting Actress as a Black actress, and these two roles epitomize it. Really well put. Let's use this as an opportunity to pivot to supporting actor here, the nominees. Willem Defoe, the Florida Project, Woody Harrelson, three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water, Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World, and Sam Rockwell, three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Guys, first of all, it was noted this morning that Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell sharing the Best Supporting Actor nominations for the same film hasn't happened in decades, and there's a lot of people who seem to think that Rockwell, myself included, seem to think that Rockwell is going to run away with this. I think Woody's presence in the movie in this category, though, slightly undermines that. So, you know, I want to talk to you guys a little bit about that and also talk to you a little bit about the Christopher Plummer nomination, which is obviously larded with controversy of its own. Amanda, what did you think about this category in general? Well, as we set up earlier, I'm already disappointed because Army Hammer is not in this category.

And in, there are two things going on here. I think that Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson were both kind of locks from very early on in. the awards process. And that is not how I would design this category. And I think it's how not how many people would design this category, both because of conflicted feelings about three billboards, which maybe not even conflicted is the word dislike of the film three billboards. But also, I don't know that, frankly, you forget that Woody Harrelson in this movie. I like Woody Harrelson a lot. And I think he's very good for the 15 minutes that he's in it. but it does kind of seem like the traditional famous person does a very short stint in a movie and you're happy to see them and so you give them an Oscar nomination.

And I think that's disappointing in its own right when you have Army Hammer and Michael Stolberg and a lot of other interesting actors. Were any of those other interesting actors in a movie that wasn't called me by her name? Well, Michael Stolberg was also in shape of water and the post. That's basically the most important. That's true. important actor. Yeah, this category is boring to me. I only have one horse in this race and is Willem Defoe, and I guess he's not going to win.

I don't know why Richard Jenkins is here, to be honest. That's no side against him. I just, you're like, you know, and I appreciate a gay BFF. I appreciate the lane. Good for him. I'm a little bored with that performance. Christopher Plummer, I also. admired, but I do think that he's here because of the feat of, first of all, I think in those

reshot scenes from all the money in the world, he's the only one who seems to be acting, because he's the only one he's doing it for the first time. Maybe it's just him sharing scenes with Mark Wahlberg where it's like, one of you is clearly, one of you is clearly awake and one of you is clearly not. But I appreciate him. Good for him. Woody Harrelson, I love, not in this movie not memorable. Sam Rockwell, I love and would really love to win an Oscar. And my misgivings are less about the role than about the fact that this is also sort of by the numbers for me.

It's like a role that I, it perfectly suits him, and I think he does a perfectly fine job. I think it's good. I give him a gold star. I don't know why I would give him an Oscar, whereas Willem Defoe, it's like the challenge of being in a movie as a professional actor surrounded by non-actors, A, and blending in and being naturalistic, being Willem Defoe and not being creepy is a feat because he just, for me, is always a creepy presence. No, no shade.

Just like that's what he's good. He's used for often. But he's like warm and loving and caring in this. It's sort of against type. And I would just love to see him. I would just love for Willem Defoe to win, you know? We also haven't really talked about the Florida Project, which was on a lot of, favorite lists at the end of the year and could be considered a snub for best picture.

I received a very angry email from my own father this morning about the Florida Project not being included in Best Picture nominations. So I liked that movie a lot. I think it maybe wasn't a lock, but it's sad that it's not getting more attention. And I do think it's a shame that Sam Rockwell is going to run away with it over Willem Defoe's performance. Yeah. I'm not so sure.

I think that there is a chance that DeFoe. takes this, which is not really how the awards have played out, but I do think the absence of Martin McDonough for Best Director indicates that maybe the Three Billboard's Train is not as powerful as we initially thought. We could see. There is some vote splitting in play. I think Woody is also, even though that character kind of vanishes after the first 45 minutes of the movie, is beloved and may just catch a lot of, you know, pity and admiration votes. And Woody is never bad in anything.

I mean, he's always lifts the spirit of a movie, even if his character isn't essential. The one thing that's unfortunate about the Willem Defoe nomination is he's the only person that was recognized for the Florida Project, as Amanda, you pointed out. And he's the only sort of known quantity that's in that movie. And one of the charms of that movie is that there's so many people that you've never seen before. We know to be non-professional actors or who are trying something for the first time. And, you know, Sean Baker makes films that are often using a lot of non-professional people. and he has a little bit of an unusual approach to making film. And that is definitely what I think a lot of people responded to about that movie.

So for the one person to be identified as the person who you've seen in 75 movies over the last 30 years is kind of a bummer. That said, I agree with what Cam you were saying, which is that it's, Willam Defoe is playing against type. And that's fun. That's cool. And he does it beautifully. You know, you really, you feel close to him and you feel an unusual empathy for one of his characters. and I think that there's a small chance that he takes this, but we'll have to see. I would love that.

We live in a post-moonlight world, so anything can happen, frankly. Anything can happen. Anything can happen. Anything did happen in the lead actress category. That's not true. Actually, this was the chalkiest category of them all. I'm going to read the nominees and we can break it down. Sally Hawkins in the shape of water, Francis McDormant in three billboards,

Margot Robbie and Iitania, Sir Sharonin and Lady Bird and Merrill Streep in the Post. This is Merrill Streep's 21st nomination. that's insane oh yeah any reactions this was the this was the least shocking and interesting category out of all of them to me

I've got two reactions number one Meryl Streep was good in the post I agree I secretly love Meryl Streep in the past I'm not shading it I just want to note that we are living

in the dawn of Meryl Streep every single day yeah that's true she's basically doing her Julia Child impression but I also really enjoyed the Julie versus is Julia, so it's fine with me.

And then the other thing I would say, and this is almost greedy, but given all the Phantom Thread nominations, I suddenly really got mad for Vicky Crips in a way that I hadn't even thought to think that she would get a nomination because Phantom Thread was just not on people's radars.

And as Sean, as you have pointed out many times, as Cam, as you pointed out, she makes that movie. She's great in that movie. Yeah, she's the hardest role. She's holding her own against mean-ass Leslie Manville, who's a pro, and weird-ass, like Daniel Day-Lewis, also a pro. And she seamlessly is of the same caliber.

It's remarkable. She's like, playing a character who has to butt up against kind of an egotistical character played by a highfalutin method actor pain in the ass. And she more than holds her own. And that's also a movie where, the female lead can't bring it, then the film is a disaster. Right.

It is doing some gender dynamics that really need someone who can hold her own. Yeah, absolutely. Far be it for me to take away the credit that a woman deserves and give it to a man, that is not what I am trying to do here. But I do think it's one of the master strokes of PTA and the movie is to find the right person to go nose to nose with Daniel DeLewis again. I mean, he did this with Paul Dano. and there will be blood.

And he really, he found the right person to kind of stare down this overwhelming, intense presence. And Vicky Crips is the same, I mean, it's the same sort of thing. It's a person you haven't seen

at maybe once or twice in a film who at first seems shy and retiring and then becomes incredibly powerful and persuasive. And it takes over the movie at times. And I completely agree. And I wish she was nominated and there's nothing we can do about it now.

So I guess Francis is going to win this. Is that, That's the way it's going to go, right? I mean, I don't know. I honestly don't know. I would, it would be nice if there was a little bit more energy going in Sersha Ronan's direction. I think she's been nominated so many times for someone who's 23 years old already that it's possible that some of that goodwill starts to build.

I don't. I'm going to get that Jennifer Lawrence bump. I mean, I pray that she does not. But that's a conversation. Can I ask you, how much do you think that acceptance beaches play a role in voting because I have thought a lot about Francis McDormons performance in Three Billboard since I saw it. And I think that is a flawed movie and I agree with much of what Cam wrote. But she's very angry in a way that you don't see on film, especially from a woman.

And I have thought about that. And then the campaigning process has not been the most solid from her. I don't really think she's been engaging with the conversation around the film, which is maybe not her job. And then her speech at the SAG Awards was, it was unfortunate. And I think the key lines were that she said the word representation and then started speaking about her agents instead of seeing ourselves on films. So people do talk a lot about the early awards season, the early awards shows as test cases. And I'm just curious whether you think that will affect her at all.

I don't think so. I think Francis McDormand is a 60-year-old woman who is a known public quantity because her public quantity is that she's not public. The only times that we've seen her are when she is accepting a best actress Oscar or she is sitting in the audience not receiving a best actress Oscar and seeming completely nonplussed by that. You know, she has like a straight talking straight ahead in my own world kind of identity. And if we have a desire to project something more meaningful than that, I think we're, we're bound to be disappointed. And that's like an interesting, an interesting test case for all of the Oscars. You know, there is a desire, and I'm guilty of this as anybody, to put meaning on this stuff that doesn't necessarily exist in the same way that it's, I think, a little risky

to try to put meaning on a movie like three billboards that it can't necessarily hold the weight of. So, you know, whether she wins or not, and whether that's, I think a win for Sertia Ronan would be as powerful a statement about, you know, a woman's point of view as, as, as, as, Francis McDormand. Absolutely. And, you know, Sir Charonan's pretty angry in that movie at times, too. But the thing that's, I think, maybe not so great about Three Billboards is Francis McDormand's character is, like, only angry.

You know, she's not really anything else. And... Well, if she wore anything but overalls, she would have us to be angry. Well, she does look comfortable. I don't want to undermine that. She does, but I love Frances McDorman so much. And there's nothing for me as sour as, like, an actor you love in a role, getting getting awards and stuff for a role that just you think is not to quality for them.

I feel the same way about her and this as I do about Allison Janney and Antonia, which is like, yeah, you would of course rock this part. There's nothing, and I guess that's not bad. I think part of being a movie star is, you know, knowing what your lane is and satisfying every time. But I think I'm looking at these nominees. and I don't see why she wouldn't win. But this is an unexpectedly weak category for me. It's weird to feel like this is a category full of powerful men characters,

but it still feels like a weak category because it doesn't feel like the most exciting. Besides for me, Sersha. And I kind of, I'm secretly standing for Mero. The gold caftain is like the outfit of the year for me. Can I offer a controversial take about the caftan? Do you hate it? We deserve better caftans. Give me a print.

That's my goal for 2018. Let's raise our expectations for caftans in movies. Okay, thank you. I'm done. That is not something about which I have an opinion. So we're going to go to the next category. And we've spent a lot of time on this already so we don't have to belabor it. But it's lead actor and here are the nominees.

Timothy Salome, call me by your name. Daniel DeLewis, Phantom Thread, Daniel Kaluja, Get Out, Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. and the aforementioned Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esquire. I've shared my Denzel takes. I think that there's something notable in this category, which is that it is two first-time nominees, young men, Chalemay and Kaluja, and then three war horses, so to speak,

in DDL and Gary Oldman and Denzel. Gary Oldman, obviously, is the frontrunner here. Is there anything that you guys want to say about this that isn't, I guess Gary Oldman's going to win? I was shocked about Daniel Kulhu actually. Really? I wasn't seeing that. No, because I guess I hadn't really heard people talk about Get Out as an actor movie.

There was some hope for Betty Gabriel, too, but that never surfaced. Yeah, I'm on the Betty Gabriel train. And if anyone should be nominated for this movie, actually, for me, it's Betty Gabriel. But I love him in this. I love the idea of him being in the academy now, I guess, sort of eventually is how it works. How do you think Sam Jackson feels about this? Not psyched? I wonder if he even noticed.

What is he even up to? He's on a boat right somewhere right now. He's good. It's a good, this is a good category to me. I don't even dislike Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. I love a mean scene chewy puts on a lot of weight, like, is more pale than he has to be performance. I have another take about this one. Oh, ready.

Which is that I think Churchill is too easy a role to win an Oscar. Because all you have to do is sit in a bathtub and be eccentric, and all of the good lines are already written for you by history. So this is my take. That's why you need a genuine eccentric like Reynolds Woodcock. Exactly. Bring Daniel Day-Lewis, his fourth Oscar, forthwith. Okay.

Isn't it weird that he's not going to win? I mean, I just don't think he's going to win. Well, that's what I was going to ask. It's such a good performance. It's like... Do you think the Phantom Thread surge today has any effect on Daniel Day's chances? It's definitely possible because we know that, there are so many people in the academy that are just obsessed with him.

And they're obsessed with the idea of what he does as an actor because it makes that it feel like their job is more important and it has more power. And it's definitely plausible that he win. I just think that Gary Oldman, and let's use this as a segue to talk about the next phase of this stuff, has been campaigning his guts out. He has really just kissed every baby and handshaken every journalist

and done all the things that you need to do. to lock up a nomination and then ultimately a win. And for a year we've been hearing that Gary Oldman has been gearing up to get his Oscar. And I do think that that's the direction that we're headed in. If Daniel DeLewis manages to overwhelm the feelings of the academy members, then maybe he ties Catherine Hepburn as the only person to win four Oscars. But we'll see. With that in mind, Cam, you pointed out to me last week that this might be a uniquely interesting campaign period now.

the next sort of 35 days of voting that we're going to have. What did you mean by that when you said that? I just, I think it's going to get a little, I don't want to say nasty, but I guess that is the word. Because for a number of reasons, we are dealing with the Oscars, so we're dealing with some sort of backlash, period. I think at this point it's sort of clear which movies are going to get a lot of conversation, three billboards among them. and a lot of dissenting opinions are going to keep getting published every day about these things.

But then I also think this is the moment of, this is the moment of like Times Up, right? So this is the moment of people coming to the fore with stories and details about the past bad behavior of people up for awards, not only people up for awards, but tis the season.

And I sort of wonder, you know, it's not so hard to Google someone like, Gary Oldman and find the things that would derail like an awards campaign, how that gets spun is interesting to me because I mean, mostly I'm sort of turned off by the idea of this only being pegged to award season, but I'm interested to see how the knives come out. I mean, you know, it's politics. And you are really at an advantage if you're something like Timothy Chalamee, no one really knows and you're kind of too young to have really done anything.

You know, you're just like, and you're like the cute kid who's dancing to Cardi B in the red carpet. There's like no dirt, really. But these war horses, I think, should be thinking right now, particularly, I'm given James Franco's not here. So clearly, I mean, not clearly, not automatically, but it's safe to say that the conversation surrounding him had an impact on whether or not. in the ensuing week, people felt comfortable putting his name on a ballot.

So I think that kind of thing can matter. On the other hand, the best actress trophy is going to be given up by Casey Affleck this year, right? He was last year's winner. That is the plan. So, and he won. And there was also a healthy conversation there. So it's a weird moment for these things. And I hate that this is getting adjudicated via.

an award because I think that's tacky. But I just see it getting a little bit nasty. And I'm exhausted. I'm exhausted. I'm tired of like relitigating three-bub boards with all my friends. I'm tired of a friend who's like just saw it and it's like, oh my God, have you seen it and wanted to talk about it? I'm tired of the friends who are like, you know, have you heard this about this actor or

blah, blah, blah. It's just an exhausting way to have this conversation. but this is the moment when it's going to get bad. Amanda, what do you think? Do you think we're going to have a nasty period now in the next six weeks or so? You know, I think it's going to go both ways. It's an interesting year because we've spent this whole podcast or most of it talking about nominations that we are excited about. And I think we would agree that it's been a good year for films that we are interested in.

And it has been a truly horrible year for the film industry in terms of, I suppose, It's been a horrible lifetime for the film industry, given what we know now. But in processing and revealing this information and trying to even wrap your heads around it and figure out how to make change both in the industry and the world at large. So there is no way to reconcile those two things. Well, it's going to be awkward. It's going to be uncomfortable. I think Kim, I would not be surprised if there is another person. personality-driven controversy before it, because we have six weeks and it's the internet.

At the same time, I would say I could see it going the other way, which is you could imagine people wanting to use the best picture category as a place to reward vision and what we want to see in the world and what the film industry would like to think of itself as, as opposed to what the last year has revealed it to be. So you could have both, I think, the negative campaign and the nastiness that Cam is talking about and maybe something really lovely like a Get Out or a Lady Bird surprise because that's what Hollywood wants to think of itself as.

And, you know, I think it'll be surprising. I really have no idea what's going to happen in the next six weeks. You know, what you just described is actually why I'm pretty confident that Three Boat Bortch is going to win. Okay, great. Well, I was trying to be positive.

No, I mean, but because I think what Hollywood really likes is to be, the place that says we understand the extent to which bad people are bad people. We also understand the extent to which, as artists, the extent to which bad people are

complicated and bad people are people, not just bad people. So this is how I imagine an award ceremony in which Gary Oldman wins, Debo Boards wins, Sam Rockwell wins, and Sam Rockwell pegged here because of the role he plays, not because of the person that he is. Things like that.

I see it sort of, I see it all going in that direction combined with an award ceremony that's hyper aware of the moment. You know, I sense it being very awkward. It's never going to be awkward when Casey Affleck is handing Francis McDormand her Oscar. You've gotten me so excited for the ceremony, Cam. Yeah. This is, I'm excited for the, like, the tributes to dead people. That's like, that and the greatest showman song. Yeah, remember me from Coco.

There's going to be some good. stuff? Come on. Let's find some enthusiasm. I think you're right that we're in the middle of the most complicated and vexing period arguably in recent Oscar history and there will be some complications around that. I'm not totally sure that the voting is going to go, as you said, I don't know if we'll have a darkest hour, darkest timeline sort of situation, but it's possible. and if we do, we'll find ways to communicate about it smartly. We'll be communicating about it smartly, hopefully over the course of the next six weeks. I hope to be talking to you guys again soon about the Oscars.

Thank you so much for coming on the big picture today. Thank you, Sean. This was fun. Okay, guys, farewell and farewell to Paul Thomas Anderson. It's Mal and Jason from Bidg Mode. We wanted to tell you about the ringers upcoming binge mode rewatchable's mashup live event. On Wednesday, January 24th, at Largo at the Coronet right here. in Los Angeles.

It'll be me, Jason Concepcion, Mallory Rubin, Che Serrano, and Bill Simmons for a high school football spectacular covering Friday night lights and varsity blues. So put on your shoulder pads or your whipped cream bikini. Let's go, goddammit. Head to Largo-Dash-L-A.com to purchase your tickets now. Clear eyes. Clear eyes. Full hearts. Don't snooze.

Buy your tickets now for Wednesday, January 24th. at Lago at the Coronet in Los Angeles. Yeah.