The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - China Decode: The World Order Is Tilting Toward China (Series Finale)

Episode Date: September 15, 2026

After a year of decoding China's rise, Alice Han and James Kynge sit down for one final episode, and they go big picture on where China goes from here. First: the real AI race isn't just about who ha...s the best model — it's about who embeds AI into the physical economy fastest. China spent roughly 23x less than the U.S. on private AI investment in 2025, yet is shipping ten times more humanoid robots and deploying industrial AI robots at nearly nine times the U.S. rate. Alice and James dig into the shifting balance of AI talent, chips, and capability — and make their predictions on who leads next. Then: a look at the broader balance of power. A striking Pew poll shows more countries now view China more favorably than the U.S., and the Lowy Institute's 2025 Asia Power Index recorded the U.S.'s largest-ever single-year decline in regional power. Alice and James weigh whether China's global-south strategy is paying off, and where Xi's leadership goes from here. Finally: China's cultural export machine — from Ne Zha 2's record-breaking box office to Pop Mart's next blind-box phenomenon after Labubu, to TikTok's continued global growth. Is Chinese soft power just getting started? And with that, a heartfelt thank you: this is the final episode of China Decode. Thank you for a year of listening, sharing, and following along as we explored the economy, politics, and culture of a country that will only grow more important to the world. Subscribe to Prof G Media on Substack for daily analysis, livestreams, and deep dives into the biggest stories shaping the global economy: https://www.profgmedia.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 It's going to create masses of friction and stress, both in trade and commerce and geopolitics. We are going to be, I think, amazed by China. And, you know, in the West, let's face it, we're going to be struggling to compete with this. This revolution is being led by China. That is the key difference. China is at the forefront of this cluster of new technologies that promise to find fundamentally reshape the way industry, our commerce, and actually our daily lives around the world will change and evolve over time.
Starting point is 00:00:42 Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alas Han. And I'm James King. Before we get started today, we come with a bittersweet announcement. This will be our final episode of the show. Unfortunately, that is the reality of the media landscape right now. Some topics are easier for advertisers to get behind than other. and we've ultimately hit a wall when it comes to finding advertisers for this show. And that is a real shame.
Starting point is 00:01:07 But we've had such a great time, James and I, over the past year decoding, why China has become a superpower that the worst simply cannot ignore and exploring the ways Chinese business, politics and culture are shaping the world around us. Oh, Alice, I'm wiping away a tear here. I must say it really is sad to be saying goodbye to China decode. and I want to say what a pleasure it's been to co-host this with you. We've really had a lot of fun. We've covered a lot of topics,
Starting point is 00:01:35 and I've learned a great deal from your insights. I also want to mention the team at China Decode. It's been an honest privilege. What our listeners perhaps don't know or see is the team of guys in the US who debate the topics with us, who help with the research, who keep us sounding better than we should, or certainly in my case, better than I should,
Starting point is 00:01:57 editing out my stumbles and repetitions each week. I'm going to miss you guys and all of this a great deal. I'm sure you will do too, Alice. Yeah, I second everything you just said, James, and I honestly couldn't have asked for a better ally, friend and co-host on this pod. And it's been a real experience of a lifetime, and I'm glad that we got to share that together. So thank you. For our final episode, we wanted to look ahead at how China will continue to shape the future. And we wanted to start off with one of the biggest stories we've covered on this show, and that is AI. When we talk about the U.S.-China AI competition, we tend to focus on who was the best model, but China may be playing a bigger game, embedding AI into the physical economy,
Starting point is 00:02:42 cars, factories, smartphones, appliances, toys, and increasingly robots. And as a quick sense of scale, the U.S. spent about $2805 billion on private AI investment in 2025 versus China roughly 12.4 billion, about 23 times less than the US. But the capability gap between the two countries, despite the investment difference, is rapidly tightening. So James, I think this has been the biggest topic for us over the past year. And certainly in the time in which we've covered this topic, I think China has surprised to the upside on a number of levels, you know, starting from its ability to do cutting-edge model. largely open-weight, open source.
Starting point is 00:03:27 In some instantiations, there are some people saying that China may be six months behind the leading closed models coming out of the U.S. China's also, I think, surprised to the upside when it comes to its ability to bypass the constraints on hardware, say chips, for instance, with homegrown talent, but also its ability to find workarounds in the existing architecture. And it's surprised on robotics, too, where I think it's had. a real clear lead versus the West. What has surprised you the most, I think, this year on AI in China, and what are your high-level thoughts and predictions for the next five, ten years?
Starting point is 00:04:06 Yeah, this really got me reflecting, Alice. I think one of the things we've really tried to do on China Decode is to put the right frame around the many, many different topics that we see coming out of China and involving China and the US and China and Europe and China and the rest of the world. And so I spend a little bit of time thinking, about the correct frame for China's advances in progress in artificial intelligence. And I would have to say that really, I think that this is so important that we should call it something like the fourth industrial revolution. That's not a phrase I've made up. That's a phrase that's already out there. And this industrial revolution is one that's characterized by artificial intelligence, robotics,
Starting point is 00:04:49 automation, and a few other elements as well. And to me, this revolution is being led by China. That is the key difference. China is at the forefront of this cluster of new technologies that promise to fundamentally reshape the way industry, commerce, and actually our daily lives around the world will change and evolve over time. And I think just to back that up a little bit to show that China definitely intends to do this,
Starting point is 00:05:26 we need to look no further than Chinese 15th five-year plan, which came out earlier this year, in which it says that it wants the penetration rate of next generation artificial intelligence and AI agents to exceed 90% across economic sectors and industries in China by 2030. And of course, 2030 is just around the course. corner, China is already deploying AI automation robotics into many different sectors of the economy. We've spoken about this a lot. You and I have both done trips to China where we've seen this in real time. But just to stress the enormity of this, you know, so the first industrial revolution was around, you know, 1760 to 1840, and that consisted of water power and steam power. The second
Starting point is 00:06:19 Industrial Revolution was late 19th and early 20th century. That was all about electric power. The third Industrial Revolution, which began in the 1960s and 70s, was all about electronics, computing, and information technology. And so what we're talking about here is something that is a discontinuity. It takes us to the next step. And that is what is going to happen with artificial intelligence and factory automation. But I want to be clear that we're not just talking here about humanoid robots that are driven by artificial intelligence and can do backflips and dance and amuse everyone at China's Spring Gala every year. That is the flashy end of AI and robotics, but it isn't the end that, to use a phrase that Dong Xiaoping used to say, it's not the end that so far anyway catches mice. The area that's catching mice in China right now is factory and industrial automation.
Starting point is 00:07:22 And last year, China installed 295,000 new industrial robots. That makes up over 54% of all industrial robot installations throughout the world. And it's that that you and I have seen in factories and in exhibition centers all over China. It's that that's really moving. needle. I mean, my favorite example of this is the absolutely stunning example. I've used it a few times on China decode. I'm going to use it again without apology of the Xiaomi car factory in Beijing that has production lines with not a single human being on them entirely automated. They're producing a car called the SU7. I met an American friend this morning who's been in an SU7 and he says it's like a
Starting point is 00:08:13 Porsche, but it costs, you know, about slightly more than half the price of a Porsche. But the key point is that these production lines that are entirely automated produce a new SU7 every 76 seconds. That, to me, is a crystallization of the world that we're going into. That is a crystallization of what the fourth Industrial Revolution really means. I think it's going to amaze the world. it's going to create masses of friction and stress, both in trade and commerce and geopolitics. We are going to be, I think, amazed by China. And, you know, in the West, let's face it, we're going to be struggling to compete with this for decades to come. So those are my high-level thoughts, Alice.
Starting point is 00:09:02 What about you? Yeah, at times with what I've been thinking, and it's great to hear you quote Carl Schwab at World Economic Forum, who's been harping on about the fourth industrial revolution for a time. And also interesting to note that the first industrial revolution was really dominant by the Brits, the second and third by the Americans. Any student history will realize that empires don't last for a definite period of time. And I would be betting on the side of a handover to the Chinese and the fourth revolution for all the examples and reasons you've cited.
Starting point is 00:09:34 I would add to that that, you know, China will be very, very strong on the hardware, part of the AI stack, maybe excluding parts of the cutting edge of chip production and chip equipment production, where I think it, you know, even though China has shown that it, you know, with Huawei and Smick and YMTC, that it has very strong homegrown capabilities, I think given the lead that Taiwan, ASML, some of the, you know, US chip design companies for GPUs like Nvidia have, it's hard for me to see China completely disrupt them out of the water. So I think there will still be a clear advantage that the West has over chips. Although China will continue to preference its own domestic production largely through
Starting point is 00:10:23 lower grade GPUs, A6, but also DRAMs and memory, whether they actually have a distinct advantage, I think, on cost and scale. But elsewhere in the hardware stack or the hardware outputs, and this is where I think it chimes with your argument, China will be, I think, the dominating power when it comes to robotics. And these are not just humanoid robots used in the home. This is industrial robots. This is already the fact of today. But also for autonomous vehicles. Here again, I think you have both the hardware capabilities, but the software through some of the leading car companies and whether it's, for instance, Huawei collaborating with Chinese EV companies or whether it's
Starting point is 00:11:07 Charmi or Neo, I think that there's been a lot of investment and R&D into autonomous vehicles and China will have the productive capacity, scale, cheapness to really export that to the rest of the world. I think that will be a theme that replaces EVs in 10, 15 years from now. And I also think that China will ride the coattails of this fourth industrial. Industrial Revolution and become, I think, still a dominant trade surplus running country, the biggest exporter in the world, and by historical standards as well. That is, I think, an unavoidable truth. But one thing that I will caveat is that I do see the risk of regulation and national security elements in the West, in Europe, in the U.S., maybe even countries like Australia, Japan, and Canada,
Starting point is 00:12:00 to regulate some aspects of the China AI stack. And here I think in particular that they won't be so much directed against maybe the robots or the autonomous vehicles because there's a clear consumer surplus that cheap, you know, at scale Chinese robots and A-Bs can produce for those domestic economies in G7 primarily. But I think open-source models coming from China may face the risk of the same kind of regulation we saw against Huawei in 1819. onwards. And I think that that will create, as we've said previously, James, some kind of a digital iron curtain when it comes to models. And I think the US will lead on that. I think it will be very significant when we look at the 2008 election who comes into the White House, because if it is somebody who's able to coalesce the allies and G7 countries to really regulate against Chinese
Starting point is 00:12:57 AI companies on the models front, and maybe. the applications front, that I think will be a serious blow for China's lead of the fourth industrial revolution. But other than that, I do agree with you. And I think I came away from reading Ruby Wong's book and talking to feeling like actually biotech is another aspect where, you know, in five, 10, 15 years from now, China will be leading across the supply chain, but also across the research pipelines. And James, I think one topic that we don't talk about enough, but that I think will be one of the most significant drivers. And here I'm in part influenced by James Liang,
Starting point is 00:13:36 who just came out with a book, Innovationism, and he's the CEO of C-Trip as a demographer. I think the talent pool is actually pretty significant. So some of the figures coming out suggest that China dominates on AI top talent. Before Macropolo, I think, finished their surveys. In 2024, 38% of top talent came from China, 24% from the US. 72% of those top talent Chinese researchers live and work in the U.S.
Starting point is 00:14:03 That, I think, will shift. We'll start to see more Chinese people going back to mainland China, working for Chinese companies, bringing the know-how back. And I suspect China will be better equipped to educate and train leading AI talent and AI conversant or cognizant students. And as a result, I think China will be able to be. be better equipped for this AI revolution from a human talent, human capital standpoint. Okay, we'll be back with more after a quick break, so stay with us.
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Starting point is 00:18:17 It's often hard to separate the global balance of economic power from the balance of political power, but we should offer some predictions on where we think geopolitics are going as well. We recently saw this pretty stunning poll from Pew Research that many countries now view China more positively than the U.S. That pure research obviously is pretty startling
Starting point is 00:18:37 in terms of, you know, the real shift in people's sentiments in the West towards China. But I don't apply a lot of credence by the facts because, you know, if you look back to previous surveys five, six, seven years ago, it was the mirror opposite, showing again that actually national sentiment towards China can shift on a dime quite quickly and so in a matter of years. But I do think one trend that is, to my mind, mind, inelectable, it's the trend towards China leading APEC and the global south. And here, I think the creation of BRICS plus adding more countries, primarily from the Middle East to BRICs, which is 30% of global GDP, the creation of RCEP, SCO, other multilateral China-led
Starting point is 00:19:28 organizations, and the fact that the global south, as we previously discussed, James, is, you know, two-thirds of the global population, a third currently of PPP adjusted GDP, that will only rise, given demographics and the way that the economies are shifting in those regions. I think China is going to have a bigger say in, I think, a growing part of the global community, and that is the global south. And here I think Chinese tech benefits, China's economy benefits to some extent, but it also enables what we've previously discussed, James, which is China's massive trade surplus. It's China's trade surplus as a share of its GDP is the biggest by any historical account. It's now currently in terms of exports share of GDP 20%. I wouldn't be surprised if in 10, 15 years from now it's closer to 30%. We already are talking about China Shock 2.0.
Starting point is 00:20:22 I think this is going to be an unavoidable, inconvenient truth for many in the West. But the global south, I think, is what China is banking on. and it's going to be a bigger part of the story. Yeah, I couldn't agree more, Alice. When you live in the West, if you're in the U.S. or in Europe, the amount of, kind of, I suppose, what we used to call column inches in the newspapers now, of course, online, the amount of writing you find about the Global South, the amount of analysis on the Global South is really very weak. And this means that China is effectively expanding into the West's blinds
Starting point is 00:21:01 spot. And I would go one stage further, maybe even than what you've said so acutely about the global south and say that the global south is seen by China as an agent through which China plans to rewire the world in a way that serves China. As you've said, China's trade and commerce connections to the global south are, well, they put the West into the shade. All you've got to do is look at the amount of trade that China does with Africa, the amount of Chinese infrastructure that's being built in Africa, the amount of Chinese investment going into Africa, then you can see exactly what I'm talking about. And what comes from this is that in many of the global institutions, not just the China-led institutions that you've mentioned, but the global institutions
Starting point is 00:21:56 such as the United Nations, you can see a very clear tendency among countries of the global South. This is more than a hundred countries to vote alongside China and to support China's positions on global issues. And that, to me, really underlines the point that you're making, Alice. China's biggest supporter in global affairs commercially, geopolitically, politically, politically is the global South. Of course, there are tensions, and this goes back and forth. and it's not a straight line, but I don't think it's too much of a simplification to say that China regards the global South as its kind of agent to recreate the world, and it regards the West as kind of a source of friction, a source of opposition to the ambitions that China intends.
Starting point is 00:22:54 So a couple of years ago, Han Zheng, the vice president of China, said that China as the largest developing country is a natural member of the global south. It breathes the same breath with other developing countries and it shares the same future with them. You would never find a Chinese leader saying that about the West. Normally what they talk about when it comes to the West is Western hegemony, is the era of the era of the West. of colonialism through which China and many other countries in the Global South suffered. You can also see this in the way that China's trade with the Global South is now around 50% of its total trade volume. You can also see it most revealingly, of course, in the Belt and Road
Starting point is 00:23:44 initiative, which was entirely directed at the Global South, with the exception of Italy, which is no longer a member of the BRI, and through which China invests, well, there are different opinions on the numbers, but let's say about 1.5 trillion US dollars in terms of loans and investments in infrastructure ports, railways, airports, etc., all over the global south. So what we're seeing here is, again, a reorientation of the world's economic and political activity that we haven't seen for hundreds of years, prioritizing connections and development of the global south is really very new, at least in the extent to which China has pursued it. So, yeah, I think that's a key, key point. Yeah, and I think what's happening
Starting point is 00:24:36 in the Middle East affirms that trend towards more and more of the world. And here I note, the Gulf states, hedging between the US and China, but potentially closer to China for trade investment. You see that in both the rhetoric that is coming out of the conflict and the sort of closeness that we're seeing between the Gulf states and Beijing, but also in terms of more, you know, bilateral trade, bilateral investment, more, you know, sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East investing in Chinese startups, being bullish about China's AI capabilities, sovereign AI, for instance, doing quite well China's sovereign AI that is being exported to the Middle East. But I wanted to take a flip side of it and say that it isn't all peaches and sunshine and
Starting point is 00:25:23 rainbows. We haven't yet discussed the CNY share of global trade and FX reserves. We've discussed this in the past, but I'm here quite bearish that actually we can see both China displacing the dollar with the CNY and that there will be a meaningful increase in CNY usage in FX reserves and global trade. So currently it's remained largely unchanged. CNY is around 2% of global FX reserves. It's around 3 to 4% of global payments and around 8% of global trade finance. Around 30% of China's current account surplus is settled in CNY. I think that that increases naturally because they can use that bilateral trading relationship to increase CNY settlement of payments. But elsewhere, when it comes to FX reserves, when it comes to other global.
Starting point is 00:26:15 trade denomination. I'm very skeptical that we see a massive uptick in CNY for a couple of reasons. One, China's just not seen as a safe asset currency. Part of that is because it's a close capital account. Part of that is so it's historically got very weak bond yields on the Chinese government bonds that remains in place as long as domestic demand is weak. Another part of it is that China will doesn't really have an incentive to see a strong CNY because it is still trying to running massive trade sublaces with the rest of the world. And as long as those elements remain true,
Starting point is 00:26:52 very hard for me to see that actually dollar gets displaced and C&Y becomes the dominant reserve currency in the next 5, 10, 15, maybe even more years. Okay, we'll be back with more. After a quick break, stay with us. Across Canada in a Volvo. Destination,
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Starting point is 00:28:47 mean for the armed forces. Search for and follow the long game wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. With economic power and political power also comes cultural power. TikTok and Lububoos are likely just the beginning when it comes to an increasing cultural impact of China around the globe. James, it's really fitting that our first episode was about the booboos. And I think it struck a chord because it was what I believe is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China as a cultural superpower. You know, we saw this to some extent with Japan, you know, in the 90s, with K-pop Korean culture now. But I do think when you look at some of the cultural experts that are coming out in cinema, in toys with TikTok, obviously,
Starting point is 00:29:35 that were just at the beginning of China becoming super relevant. And I think that this trend will only increase, given the creativity that is being extremely. exported, but also the increased travel of Westerners or foreigners going into China due to the visa-free travel scheme that they've expanded in the last year or more. What has made China different today, you think, to take the bull case than, say, 10, 15 years ago when China obviously was economically rising, but it wasn't clear that it could be culturally relevant. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:11 Well, Alice, you know, Labuboos was never my comfort zone. and I'm not quite, it still isn't. I'm not quite the right demographic, but I'm reading that there is a LeBoo Boo Boo follow-up act called Twinkle, Twinkle, and these are sort of cutesy, chubby. Yeah, I got gifted one recently. Did you? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:32 Wow, okay. Well, like I say, I'm probably not the right demographic. I don't think anyone would gift me one of them. But apparently they're very sweet. They're kind of rosy cheeks. figures, they look like tiny joyful stars, and I don't know, we'll have to see whether or not it takes off. But I do think that that Labouou craze was really interesting, as you mentioned, because it was a Chinese cultural export. I don't know how many people in London or Tokyo or
Starting point is 00:31:03 elsewhere really associated Lubbos with China, but, you know, if you cared to find out, you could find out. And so that was an interesting thing. Coming back, to your question, though, why is China becoming more, you know, exercising greater cultural affinity, let's put it like that, or becoming more fashionable, becoming more hip, or, you know, to use one of the words you see quite a lot online, China maxing, you know, people living their best China life, as the phrase goes. I would say, you know, it actually starts with the topic that you and I have been talking about, really, since China decode began. And that is, you know, it actually starts. And that is, you know, the increasing technological prominence and advancement of China plus the increasing geopolitical power.
Starting point is 00:31:53 I think there's something innate in human beings to follow a leader. And China is becoming a leader now. And this is the first time that China's been a global leader for many, many centuries. But also, you know, China's becoming wealthier. And some of the products that China's producing are in their own right, inherently very attractive. But I wouldn't have imagined, for instance, that Chinese movies, Chinese films would become, you know, would gather as much of a following as they are beginning to gather. Domestically, of course, and China's box office in 2025 hit $7.47 billion U.S. dollars. That was up 20 percent year on year and compared with the U.S. domestic box office. of 8.6 billion, but I mean, we all know that Hollywood is kind of the center of U.S.
Starting point is 00:32:51 soft power, but China's not too far behind now in terms of money. And of course, money makes the world go round. I mean, globally, China is also contributing quite considerably to the global box office numbers. It took about 24% in 2025. And that's not far behind, America's 29%. So even in areas where, honestly, I wouldn't have expected China to be making that much ground. It is doing pretty well. And of course, TikTok is the runaway success of China. There are roughly 1.9 billion monthly active users of TikTok all over the world in 2026. That's really a huge number. Again, I wouldn't say TikTok is particularly Chinese. I used TikTok the whole time. I don't think of it as Chinese. It's just a convenience. China is moving in
Starting point is 00:33:49 lots of different areas, but I would say the basic reason is that when a leader emerges, people take note and they start to follow. Yeah. So I have two predictions for China culture. Number one is in the realm of AI apps and social media, really sort of the next wave of digital media that is AI-generated, AI-enabled. And I'm going to stick my head out there and make a big bet, which is I think China will dominate. And a couple reasons. One, I think we were very surprised 10 years ago by the ascent of TikTok.
Starting point is 00:34:31 But TikTok showed that a very Chinese company run by Zhang Ying Ming, a very Chinese founder, could be lauded and celebrated and accepted worldwide. and it is still one of the fastest growing social media companies in the world. You know, APEC is a big part of this, and here I think that the Asia, China in Asia story is going to be a big theme in this sort of AI world too, because this is 60% of the world's population. It's 4.85 billion people. You've got superweight countries like India and Indonesia that are growing demographically. So if China can tap into the cultural relevance, it's. In APEC, that is a huge theme and trend.
Starting point is 00:35:15 And because there are so many, you know, exciting, cool AI apps. And this is not models, the application layer of AI that are, you know, growing and coming out of China and that people don't know about. So, you know, AI video editing, AI photo editing, you know, that the fastest growth AI app companies in those domains are coming from China globally. I was just listening to Kaifel Lee's interview in which he talks about investing in an AI app company that generates videos for Handyman in the U.S. So Handyman can upload photos and it generates a video and then it helps them, you know, connect with their clients. So here I'm very, very optimistic that China can dominate AI apps and by proxy can build the cultural relevance and soft power that we have seen. in the last couple of years and I really do think that that cultural power
Starting point is 00:36:16 has been enabled by social media companies largely TikTok because when I look at TikTok Instagram, Shohong Shor Red Node which has become more popular in the last couple of years globally there's so much pro-Chinese cultural content that is coming out and that people in the West and elsewhere are able to see
Starting point is 00:36:34 and that is what has been fueling in what we've talked about in previous episodes the growth of interest in Chinese fashion in China maxing, in Labibu's, in Chinese cinema. So I think that is my first prediction that it will dominate AI apps and social media for years to come and thereby continue to export Chinese culture. And my second one is a bit left-field, but, you know, hear me out.
Starting point is 00:36:58 I think given that China is showing through its 30-day visa-free policy, now with 50 countries, but I think that that will expand in the coming years, that it wants more of the West and the global order. to see China, the real China. I am pretty bullish on Chinese tourism. Currently, it's around 5% of GDP. It's about $880 billion annual revenue for the tourism sector. I think that we could see that double in the next five years, both because of domestic interest, but also global, you know, people are coming to visit China. And so I'm pretty bullish on Chinese hotels and Chinese tourism. You know, my feed, and it probably says a lot about me, my Instagram feed is
Starting point is 00:37:40 dominated by new luxury hotels that are being created in China at an alarming clip. There's one, for instance, the six senses that just came up in Chongdu that looks absolutely amazing. I'm pretty bullish on that side of China. So these are just two very high-level predictions, but I feel like we need to say something a little bit negative. Otherwise, it doesn't won't feel balanced. What do you think, James? Yeah, I mean, I was thinking the same thing, actually. I feel like, you know, everything we've said, I very much kind of endorse. But I feel like we're also headed for a very rocky period. And this mainly consists of China's relationship with the West. I think we're heading into what will be a slow burn trade war with Europe. Europe simply
Starting point is 00:38:28 cannot compete with China at the moment. Much of European, Europe's industrial base is currently being eroded or even wiped out by Chinese competition. Several countries in Europe are hemorrhaging jobs. This is a very, very serious issue. That will create enormous tension, I think, for many years going forward. I don't think we're going to be done with this in five years. I think we're looking more like decades. The same is true of the US. But to a lesser extent, the US is much better able to compete with China in most areas. But then there are geopolitical tensions, and there are tensions over cybersecurity and tensions over hacking, all kinds of tensions that
Starting point is 00:39:17 ride along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the new technologies that we've just been talking about, and these are not going to go away. Then there's military tensions. China's building up a massive military. It's going to be able to take on the U.S., probably within a decade or certainly take on elements of U.S. forces in their forward positions. And I would include Taiwan in that, Japan, South Korea. We're probably going to see big changes of, you know, the military emplacements of the U.S. in Asia over that time. And, you know, this will be very uncomfortable for the U.S. and for the countries of the West. So, you know, China's ambitions in the South China Sea are well known.
Starting point is 00:40:08 Those that encroaches upon several countries in Southeast Asia, that will create tension. So although it's easy to, well, it's not easy, but we spend a great deal of our time looking at China's technological advance and its advances in other economic areas. Geopolitically, we're headed for a very rough ride. Yeah, and I would love the way that you've brought out that counterpoint. You know, the real elephant in the room that we haven't yet discussed, but I think it's going to be the most significant prediction or trend is the U.S.-China relationship, and that I'm sure you agree with me is looks like it's going to just get worse,
Starting point is 00:40:44 even after Trump leaves the world, even after we get the new president in 2028, I think that that relationship will be worse in terms of, you know, more restrictions, sanctions, regulations against China, and that, you know, some of these issues over Taiwan, national security, South China see you get even more. more heated as China tests American resolve in Asia, right? And there are new domains that we have mentioned in the past on China decode,
Starting point is 00:41:12 such as space, space race, space weapons, space surveillance. These are vast new different areas. And, you know, unless there is some totally unexpected kind of geopolitical de-escalation between China and the US, we're probably going to see the tensions that exist, between the two superpowers extended into space as well. Yeah, and then the other threat closer to home, but still dystopic is AI weapons
Starting point is 00:41:44 or some kind of rogue agent AI attacks that could go into the nuclear bio-weapons domains. You know, the fact that we haven't had any real leadership between Washington and Beijing or any concerted effort for some kind of arms controls or AI safety guard rails, I think is also going to set back, civilization, really, in the years and decades to come. Yeah, and I think that would be my kind of parting comment would be, if the Western China
Starting point is 00:42:14 doesn't get on, that is just one of those things. That's one of those things that happens in international relations. But what I would hope is that the minimum amount of cooperation to ensure the safety of our respective populations is really focused on by both China and the US and Europe. Geopolitical competition is one thing, but kind of white-knuckled competition without anybody with their hand on the tiller, and nobody even cooperating in the merest of areas is really a scary prospect. Yeah, well, we don't want to leave everyone too scared and disheartened, but suffice it to say, this makes what we do so important, helping people understand China, helping people from different domains, whether it's policy, technology, economics, business,
Starting point is 00:43:05 to better understand China, hopefully will make our world a better place. And I wanted to leave on that positive note and say that this is all for this episode. And sadly, for China Decode. We want to thank the audience so much for listening over the past year and sending messages to both James and myself, very encouraging and supportive messages. It's been a real pleasure getting to a great pleasure. getting to explore China with you all, its economy, its politics, its culture,
Starting point is 00:43:32 and its growing influence around the world. And we're incredibly proud of what we've built with this show, and we're especially grateful to everyone who listened, shared an episode, send us a question, or just spent some time with us each week. We hope we left you with a better understanding of a country that will only become more important to the world in the years ahead.
Starting point is 00:43:54 This was a production of Prof G Media, and we want to give a huge thank you to the entire team behind the show, David Toledo, Ness Smith Savadoff, Mary Dew and Eric Janikas, who researched, produced, edited, booked guests, and helped bring China Decode to life. And thank you to Catherine Dillon, Drew Burroughs, Billy Bennett, Dan Shalon, William Flynn, Jesse Millwood, Gil Espinoza, and Corrine Brown for production help every week.
Starting point is 00:44:21 It's been an absolute pleasure making this show. We thank you for being along for the ride. Well, Alice, I mean, I just endorse everything you said. I think that was beautifully put. I absolutely loved this. The team that we've been working with have been fantastic. And it's just been such a privilege working with you. Thank you very much.
Starting point is 00:44:41 Likewise. And we're not finished. James and I will continue to be chatting all China and hopefully educating you guys in other formats. This family is on. the brink of civil war. On September 18th, Mobland, the hit original series is back on Paramount Plus.
Starting point is 00:45:10 We are the Harrogans. Don't know the yet? And Google us. From the underworld of Guy Ritchie. Do you want to step up the ladder? I want combat dead. Starring Tom Hardy, Pierce Brosnan, and Helen Mirren. Do I have to do everything myself?
Starting point is 00:45:26 You want to want? I'll give you more. Mobland. New season hits September 18th on Paramount Plus.

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