The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - Conversation with Dan Senor — A Look at Israel’s Leadership, Response to the War, and Cultural Traditions

Episode Date: December 7, 2023

Dan Senor, a former White House foreign policy advisor and the bestselling author of “The Genius Of Israel: The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World,” joins Scott to discuss the global response we’ve seen thus far from the war in Israel.  Scott opens with his thoughts on consolidation.   Algebra of Happiness: caring for others. P.S. You can access Scott’s free brand strategy course for mobile at profgcourse.com/pod.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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NMLS 1617539. Episode 278. I-278 is an auxiliary interstate highway in new jersey and new york in 1978 the popular musical film greece was released what does a jersey girl use for protection during sex in 1978 ben and jerry's opened their first ice cream shop in a renovated gas station in vermont true story the three most rejected Ben & Jerry's flavors in order. It came from Wolf Blitzer's beard, Michael Jackson's white chocolate, and cookies and crack. All right, let, we speak with Dan Senor,

a former White House foreign policy advisor and the bestselling author of The Genius of Israel, The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World. We discuss with Dan the state of play in Israel, specifically as it relates to geopolitical relationships, second-order effects, and the role this nation plays in the global economy. Okay, what's happening? The dog is back in London, in time for the holidays, in time. I'll tell you, it's wonderful here. The sun comes up about 11 a.m., and then it's 40 degrees and damp and very gray, and then the sun begins to set around, I don't know, around 2 p.m. Nobody warned me about the weather here. And I am in a bad mood.

And when I'm in a bad mood, it's like that commercial, remember, who does depression hurts? It hurts everybody. Well, bitches, I make sure it hurts everybody. When daddy is down, the whole world knows it. Somebody needs to do something about the weather here. Everything works. The beer works for me. The Premier League football works for me. The British people work for me. Everything. The subways.

I love the subways. They're a little small. Jesus Christ, I feel like Manute Bull on the subway, or as we call it, the tube. See it. Say it. Sorted. Anyways, on to the news. There's a lot going on with consolidation.

Specifically, two years ago, if you looked at the spending in the streaming market, you'd say a couple of things. One, prices need to go up and it needs to consolidate and they need to cut costs. And they're doing all of those things. They've been laying off people. Everyone is cutting a lot of costs. I don't care if you're Discovery, Time, Warner. Is it Discovery? No, it's Warner Brothers Discovery.

Why do I get that wrong? Why do I get that wrong? Especially given the fact that I think I'm going to buy a billion dollars in stock and go gangster on David Zaslav and file a 13D and nominate directors. But anyways, we'll see. I think there's a lot of upside in that stock. I think just shrinking your way to greatness is not the way to go there. And while they're paying down their debt, I do think that HBO, if they can get their heads out of their asses and stop rebranding it HBO Joey Bag of Donuts,

I still think there's going to be a lot of potential in streaming. One, because it's consolidating. Paramount and Apple just announced that they, in fact, are going to pair up. Even Apple, the deepest pocket in the world, is like, okay, we don't have enough content here. And Paramount just doesn't have the firepower. So they're going to pair up. Warner Brothers Discovery is talking about pairing up with another service. So

everybody's consolidating. They're cutting costs under the auspices of these ridiculous strikes, which gave them cloud cover to reconfigure their cost structure. And they're also raising prices, and Netflix raised its prices somewhere between 15 and 30 percent just earlier. Think about that. We have less content because of the strike, but oh, wait, we're raising prices. So what does that see above the strikes had absolutely no impact on Hollywood other than it was a chance to save money. But this is exactly, I mean, this is just the market is an amazing thing. It said, all right, streaming is the future. People are willing to pay for it, but we need to consolidate, raise prices and cut costs. And that's exactly what is happening. So let's talk about Apple TV

Plus and Paramount. Should they go through with this bundle, customers would be able to pay for both services at a cheaper rate than subscribing to each separately. That's the whole idea of bundling right now. Recurring revenue bundle. The Wall Street Journal reported that these two streamers, that is Apple TV Plus and Paramount, have the highest churn rate compared to the rest of the industry, 7% versus the average of 5.7%. In sum, what people do is they're single program subscribers. They go on, they watch all of Ted Lasso, and then they cancel. By the way, Ted Lasso is just brilliant. That's not about Premier League football. That's about relationships, and they do a wonderful job. It's a little sappy. It's a little sugary. It's a little sugary, but boy, they do a really good

job. I think kind of the unsung hero of that show, I don't know her name, is the woman who plays the owner of Richmond, which I believe is modeled after Crystal Palace. She was actually in Game of Thrones. She played the torturer or the disciple of, I forget, the religious zealot. And she's an outstanding actress. And it's just so nice to see all of these people having, I don't know, just nice to see a show like that and see all these actors in Premier League football. I also watched, because let's talk more about me, Greyhound with Tom Hanks, a World War II drama, which was outstanding. But the bottom line is Apple TV just doesn't have as much. I've also been watching The Morning Show, which is just so fucking woke, I can't handle it. I mean, I'm woke, but in small caps, it's just all about,

oh, okay, the old white lady, well, okay, she must be a racist. And all the men are predators. And all the women are incredibly strong and smart, but they give in to their ovaries and make stupid decisions because, you know, all women are totally obsessed with romance. It just is like such a ridiculous stereotype of every individual. Having said that, I'm going to watch the whole thing and watch it through because the money is literally dripping off the screen. It's incredibly well produced, produced by a company I actually know named Res Media. And I think they're the stars of the program. I think the thing is just so kind of well done and beautiful. And it's basically a giant Apple ad when you know it's on Apple TV.

But these guys don't have enough bulk individually and they have the highest churn because whereas Netflix, there's always something on. By the way, I was watching Squid Games with my youngest last night. That shit is disturbing. That shit is disturbing. Anyways, we have Apple TV at a catalog of 208, Paramount at 1,582, and Netflix at 6,500. Prime Video is at 14,200, but they call a program on how to eat fries original content. Prime Video is just a massive shit. Peacocks at 5,100. That shocks me. Hulu at 5,000, Max at 3,500, and Disney Plus at 2,000. What's the learning here? The specific crowds out the general because the most surprising stat there in terms of your own perceptions would have been Disney. And you would have thought, well, Disney has a much beefier content library. And it doesn't. It actually has one of the smallest content libraries, but it's so focused around family

that it feels bigger. And that's an interesting business lesson for your entrepreneurs. Always keep in mind, always keep in mind the specific crowds out the general. And you want to resist the temptation to lose your focus on your niche or your value add or the clients you're focused on or the type of culture you have. You want to be very, very focused. You want to be a sniper, not a shotgun, especially when it comes to business. The Journal also reported that the average cost of ad-free streaming has gone up 25% over the past year. Oh, my God, you want to talk about inflation? What, you're bitching about your carrots are up 15%? Oh, by the way, my favorite food in the world, McVitie's Digestives Dark Chocolate. Oh, my God, I could live on those

things. As we speak, I'm eating Indian food, drinking tea, and all I can think about is getting to my McVitie's, McVittles, McVitie's digestive biscuits. Oh my God, it's almost worth the weather. And when I say almost, I mean, not nearly compensates for what is the hell, seventh ring of hell of daddy's depression called the UK weather. But anyways, small compensation. I can huddle over my tea and biscuits and just try for a moment not to think about how fucking depressed I am. Get me to Miami.

Anyways, we're seeing massive consolidation in the streaming space and prices up 25%. Verizon offered a bundled version of the ad-supported tiers of Netflix and HBO Max for a discounted price, $10 a month instead of what would be $17 a month if you did them individually. Netflix and HBO Max. Oh, my God. Can you imagine getting into the ring? And you're not only fighting Muhammad Ali, you're fighting Muhammad Ali and Mike Tyson. Jesus, how does everyone not have that streaming service? I'm interested.

I don't fully understand why they did it together. I think each of them is strong enough on their own. Anyways, got to read more about that. Peacock and Instacart recently partnered up so that Instacart subscribers can get Pe called, the one about Montana, Yellowstone, which I don't get. I don't get the appeal there. I think that makes me progressive. I find it, I just don't, quite frankly, I don't get Yellowstone. I've tried. I've tried. I don't get it. In exchange, Instacart gets a custom ad spot that will run across NBCU's linear TV, social media, and Peacock. That's pretty innovative. By the way, NBCU or Comcast or whatever you call it, I think it's kind of the quietly the best managed company in media. They don't like attention. They're out of

Philadelphia, which can't be easy. Can't be easy working in Philadelphia. 60% of New York for 40% of the price. Decent value proposition. Kind of the old Navy of cities. I was on the board of Urban Outfitters. Nicest corporate headquarters in the world, the Navy Yard, super smart people, the Hain family, like incredibly smart. And I used to stay in Philadelphia and I can kind of see why people live there, but not really. One of my friends, Michael Smirconish, he lives there and he loves it. I don't know. I still got to figure out Philadelphia. Still got to figure that out. The partnership with Apple isn't Paramount's first bundling rodeo. They also offer their ad-supported version tier for free to Walmart Plus subscribers, plus a way to compete against Amazon Prime. Jesus, Walmart's in this game too?

That's right, Walmart Plus. Paramount also gives Delta SkyMiles members free access to their streaming service. Anyways, consolidation is sort of the C word, is what we're seeing everywhere. Where else are we seeing consolidation? The airline industry. The airline industry. Alaska Airlines plans to buy Hawaiian Airlines for $1.9 billion in cash. Who knew Hawaiian Airlines was worth $2 billion? I guess it's a fairly well-run airline. And see above, focus. Hawaiian Airlines, guess where they focus? By the way, one of the things I really miss about living on the West Coast, when you live on the West Coast, you go to Cabo and you go to Hawaii. I used to go to Hawaii every Christmas and New Year's. The Lodge of Kauai, oh my gosh. Kauai, the wettest and driest place in one island on the earth, is extraordinarily

beautiful. I love Hawaii. I haven't been back there since I moved to the East Coast 20 years ago. What do you do on the East Coast? You go to the Caribbean and you go to Europe. So I never, I hardly ever go to, I haven't been to Cabo in a long time and I haven't been to Hawaii in 20 years. Anyways, I would love to go back to Hawaii. But Hawaiian Airlines has real focus. And it kind of like, if you're going to Hawaii, you might think, well, what are my options? What airline goes to Hawaii? Let me think. And it obviously is a pretty well-run airline because, as Warren Buffett said, if he had a time machine, he would go back and kill the Wright brothers because traditionally the airline industry has been a shitty place to work and or invest. They've offered or Alaska's offered $18 per share in cash, and that's close to four times Hawaiian's closing price before the news broke. Jesus Christ, 4X. Wow. This deal will face scrutiny from the Biden administration as regulators have been particularly tough on

airline consolidation. A court in Boston recently ruled that American and JetBlue must end their partnership, arguing that it violates antitrust. Hmm. Hmm. By the way, I love JetBlue. God, they do a good job. Regulators are trying to block JetBlue's takeover of budget airline Spirit. A decision on this is expected any day now. Perhaps it'll be settled by the time you hear this episode. Look, if you want to make a bet on antitrust regulation, bet there isn't going to be any. I think there needs to be more. I'm not sure the airlines are the place to start, but I guess it still strikes me that airlines seem pretty cheap. Although lately, since COVID, every airline I'm on, anytime, every seat is sold.

And I have noticed the price is going up a great deal, as Tim Wu, total gangster from Columbia, wrote in his column for The New York Times, open quote, we've ended up with airlines that offer less for more and have become better than ever at getting bailouts from Congress. He has a great point there. Why the fuck are we bailing out airlines? During the pandemic, the 10 major U.S. airlines received more than $54 billion combined in three different direct payments, $25 billion, $15 billion, and $14 billion. Airline bailouts totally epitomize what was a $7 trillion bailout that was paid for, get this, with a credit card of our kids and our grandkids. We didn't have a special additional tax to pay it back, despite the fact the first six months of this year have been the best six months, first half of the year for the NASDAQ in 40 years. We didn't decide, well, you know, we spent all this fucking money bailing you out. Maybe you should pay a little bit more. No, we don't do that, right?

The only thing that passes for bipartisan legislation these days is reckless spending and cutting taxes, which all adds up to unsustainable debt. Congress is not doing what it's supposed to do, and that's prevent a tragedy of the commons. The dissent in America is a function of two things. Why do we hate each other? Which, by the way, is literally the biggest problem here. It's not jihadists. We will handle that. It's not Putin. I believe we will handle that, too. The biggest threat to America is that we hate each other. And why do we hate each other? Because young people are getting fucked. Let me get this. Everybody else is having champagne and cocaine, but I can't afford a house. A house pre-pandemic was $290,000, now it's $420,000, and interest rates have gone from 3% to 7%, meaning the average income you need

to buy the average-priced house in America has gone from $76,000 to $127,000, which means the majority of people under the age of 40 who used to be able to afford a home can now no longer afford a home. Oh, but wait, we're going to raise your health care prices and your education prices, and there's less opportunity for you because we're going to figure out a way, if you do pretty well, to tax the shit out of you until you get old and rich, and they're going to have capital gains and mortgage tax interest and 1202 and all this shit that reduces your taxes. Why? Because of democracy. If you don't have leadership that is investing in the future, that has leadership that prevents a tragedy of the commons, that thinks long term, see above, none of these doors, none

of these doors does our current leadership embrace. And what do you have? What do you have? A disaffected younger population who then goes on social media. And boy, do those algorithms love anger and upset, right? Let's elevate that shit. Oh, you're angry about discrimination or you're angry about vulnerable groups. And all of these things are real issues. All of these people have reason to be upset. But what pours kerosene on the flames of anger and dissent and tearing at the fabric of America? The fact that a 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at the age of 30. That is the fundamental compact we have with the society. We are failing that. We have prosperity, but we don't have progress. We'll be right back for our conversation with Dan Senor.

Welcome back. Here's our conversation with Dan Senor, a former White House foreign policy advisor and the bestselling author of The Genius of Israel, The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World. Dan, where does this podcast find you? New York City. Nice. So we actually have a history. You and my sister were roommates, what, 25, 30 years ago, right out of college in D.C.? You know, I appreciate the reference. I don't appreciate the the because implying that is the is the age you know it's like whenever i on my podcast when i have folks on i always when

they're old friends i always say long time friends rather than old friends because people are very sensitive to anything that involves multiple decades and here we are yes it was the mid 1990s so it was 1995 i was a young congressional aide. So yeah, that was, wow, close to three decades. Wow, that's wild. So let's bust right into it. You wrote this book, The Genius of Israel, The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World. And quite frankly, the frame changed dramatically with the events of October the 7th. Give us a sense, you've kind of become this unofficial spokesperson for what it feels like to be Jewish in the U.S. right now. Talk to us about, as an observant Jew, your observations around, and I'm not an observant Jew, what I would describe as a surprising amount

of anti-Semitism. The way I describe it is, you know, they say two-thirds of an iceberg's mass are below the surface. In this instance, it feels like 99% of anti-Semitism was below the surface. I'm just shocked. I didn't know it was there. So I will tell you, I've been living and breathing Jewish life my entire life. I'm a moderately, I guess, observant Jew, depending on different, what stage of life I've been in. But I've been deeply immersed in Jewish communal life my entire life, and I have been very involved with the state of Israel and with U.S.-Israel relations, certainly most of my life, my adult life. I'm the son of a Holocaust survivor. So my mother, who's 85 years old, who lives in Jerusalem today, her father was killed in Auschwitz. She and her mother barely escaped the train to Auschwitz. She and her siblings were on the run. She was hidden out by

what we call righteous Gentiles who risked their lives to save her life as a little girl. Parts of her family beyond just her father were wiped out. My wife and I took her and her, you know, 15 members of our family back to her hometown. Coincidentally and eerily, just this past summer, we went to the home where she was chased out of by the Nazis. We had three generations of the family traveling with us. Her generation, my generation, and all of our my siblings and my kids, it was a roots trip. And we went to Auschwitz too, where her father was killed. So I tell you all this as background, that the stories of the Holocaust, the stories of anti-Semitism was sort of like in the water.

When I was growing up, it was at home, was with us all the time. My mother had this element of she benefited tremendously from the joys of Jewish life, but she also always was looking over her shoulder a little bit, which is understandable. And I intellectually related to that, but I never truly, yeah, like viscerally, I never felt it. I always thought I understood why she felt it but i didn't feel it until october 7th this is the first time here i am in my early 50s this is the first time in my life where i kind of get it i i i feel vulnerable i just by the way it's not just me i almost every jew i live know who lives a public a public Jewish life feels like they're sort of looking over their shoulder, like my mother did. My children go to a Jewish day school. I see the security around the school that's had to be amped up. I mean, you know the stories. It's everywhere. And this is new. I never thought I would feel this and see this. I don't speak nearly as eloquently or with as much credibility around this issue as you, but I have decided that, you know, I never, I benefited hugely from Jewish culture,

but I've never really given back. And I thought, okay, this is my one opportunity to sort of get back. And I've been fairly outspoken. And I'll have you respond to some of the pushback I get, because I think some of the pushback has some value and creates a productive conversation. Some of the pushback I get initially is, Scott, being anti-Israel doesn't make you anti-Semitic. And I'm curious about how you would bifurcate the feelings of people, especially, it strikes me, there's just an entirely different viewpoint among young people in America versus people of our generation of the distinction between being anti-Semitic and anti-Israel. So I personally much more critical of Israeli government policy than I've been. I think they come at it in good faith,

certainly over the last year, incidentally, between January of 2023 and October 7th of 2023. I raised a lot of questions and concerns about Israeli domestic government policy as it relates to this judicial reform effort. So I think it's completely legitimate to be critical of Israeli government policy as one would be of any government's policies. The distinction I draw when someone is critical of Israel is do you hold Israel to a different standard than you would hold any other country? So one can criticize Israeli government policy like they criticize any government's policy. But with Israel, somehow, then it always devolves into a debate about whether or not Israel has a right to exist. It's not just about the policies of the government, it's about the legitimacy of Israeli statehood. And as though Israel's statehood is a manifestation of something illegitimate.

And we can get into what those charges all are at some form of, you know, colonization or imperialism from the West, or, you know, they then like project on these other explanations for Israel's existence that should delegitimize the right to Israel's existence. But if you criticize Israel, of course, that's okay. And that is not anti-Semitism. In fact, look at the majority of Israelis. Majority of Israelis are very critical of Israeli government policy at any given moment. So let's just put it in the current context. And I'm sure we'll get into this. And there's layers and layers, and we can get very granular on different issues. But Israel's right to defend itself against a genocidal threat that many believed before October 7th was largely rhetorical, that was sure it was

articulated in the Charter of Hamas, that Hamas intended to wipe Israel off the map and slaughter Jews en masse. But there was a sense that they wouldn't actually try to do it. Now we know they want to do it, right? Many friends of mine in the geopolitical, analytical world often say when bad actors publish repeatedly what they want to do, take them at their word, whether it was what Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf, whether it was that 5,000 word essay that Putin wrote some years ago about what he wanted to do in Ukraine, when they project, when they write what they're going to do, you should pay attention to it. Hamas had written what it wanted to do, and then it tried to do it on October 7th. Now, we can get into a debate about how Israel should respond. But

if you question whether or not Israel has a right to defend itself against this threat in a way that you have tolerated and in some cases supported any country to defend itself against comparable threats then you are holding israel to a different standard than you hold any other country and that therefore is inherently a double standard which is a form of discrimination and that's when i think you start to get into questions about, is there a distinction between knee-jerk anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism? And I think what we are seeing now is that's not the case. I mean, you look at the absurdity of some of the criticisms of Israel in response to

October 7th. It is so utterly, tragically clear that Israel is being held to a standard that these same people who are out protesting would never hold another country to. I'll put forward a series of theses and you tell me where you disagree or agree. I think America has played a vital role in this and the Biden administration doesn't get enough credit. I think Hamas was looking to do two things. One, inspire global sympathy and attention to their cause. I think they've achieved that, unfortunately. I really do. I think they've tapped into a groundswell of anti-Semitism that we didn't know was there. And two, I thought they were hoping to inspire a multi-front war against Israel, and that has not happened, largely because of two carrier strike forces sitting off the coast that are basically saying, if you do this, we're going to rain violence on you. And that is what, unfortunately, geopolitics mostly comes down to.

So one, curious about how you feel about the Biden administration's handling of this and what you think about. Let's start there. The Biden administration's handling of this war. And I want to take a moment on this because I think it's important. To your point, Scott, if as Hamas was plotting this and whoever else was helping them from Tehran to Nasrallah and Lebanon to God knows who else, when they were plotting October 7th, if you would have asked them that, hey, within five days of this massacre, the commander in chief of the most powerful military in the world would not have only given an incredibly, I thought, incredibly moving

address, empathizing with the true victims of this massacre, the Jewish people, in the way that he did that Saturday on October 7th, and would have a couple of days after that gotten on Air Force One and flown to Israel. The commander in chief of the most powerful army in the world. No president's ever done that. Israel's been in plenty of wars and the U.S. has done a lot to help Israel, whether it was during the first Iraq war when President George H.W. Bush, you know, provided Patriot missile technology to shoot down Scuds, whether it was Nixon in 73 with its military airlift that really saved Israel, helped save Israel in a pretty dark period of the Yom Kippur War. You can go back. But a president getting on the plane and going to the war zone and he didn't just go to the war zone. He he met with the Israeli war cabinet.

He sat there with Netanyahu and Gantz and Eisenkot and the entire war cabinet as though he was a member of their team. And obviously he met with families of the hostages and he did a lot on the ground. And then provided – we're still waiting for the congressional passage of this large $14 billion plus H package, but he has still provided a lot of important supplies. And then you mentioned the aircraft carriers and the 2,000 Marines in the region and the squadrons. And I mean, I can go on and on and on and on. And explicitly told Tehran and Hezbollah, don't even think for a moment about trying to capitalize on this. I bet it wasn't in Hamas's playbook that that's what the week after October 7th was going to look like. And so I repeatedly say, as far as Israel is concerned,

the U.S.-Israel relationship is paramount. And President Biden deserves a lot of credit. Now, I have some concerns about, I think there's a little bit of good cop, bad cop going on in the administration right now. And certainly you look at some of the things that Vice President Harris said over the last few days that I think are disconcerting. These five principles that she articulated, which are mostly unrealistic. And I think there's some in the administration, I think the administration is divided. I think there are some in the administration that are concerned about domestic politics and pressure they're getting from their left flank that they need to try to figure out how to mollify with regard to the position President Biden's taken. But by and large, the person who's holding the line on the administration's approach is the

president himself. And so it's a long-winded way of saying I think his support has been extremely important. What are your thoughts about normalization between the kingdom and Israel? So I think that Saudi-Israeli normalization was very far along on the eve of October 7th, much farther along than even many in the press here in the United States that were following it believed. If you look at the UN General Assembly meetings in September in New York, you look at what MBS was saying publicly, you look at what Netanyahu was saying publicly, you know, and they, it was moving and it was moving fast. And I think it was going to happen before the end of this year because they wanted to get it done while Biden got consumed by the presidential election, which was going to happen next year. And the Biden

administration was key to getting it done because there were going to be some Senate Democrats in any kind of defense pact between the U.S. and Saudi that was key to this. There were going to be some Senate Democrats who were critics of Saudi that wouldn't want to go along with it, which is why Biden was key. Biden was going to deliver the Senate Democrats. So I think it was fast moving. October 7th actually has paused it. But part of the reason Saudi Arabia wanted to integrate or normalize with Israel is as one very prominent leader, Saudi leader said to me about four or five years ago, he said, look, we view Israel as the future and we want to partner with the future. And why do we we want to innovate? We want to co-innovate with the leading innovators in the world.

Why do we have to get onto on a 17 hour flight to San Francisco and go to the Bay Area when we want to innovate? We have a Silicon Valley in our backyard. His words, a three hour flight from Riyadh is Tel Aviv. Why aren't we just partnering with them on food tech, on cybersecurity, on healthcare innovations? I mean, it can go on and on and on. These are some of the areas they're particularly focused on. Why do we have to schlep, my word, to the Bay Area to do that? So they wanted to integrate with Israel economically and technologically. And undergirding all of this is that Israel and Saudi face a common threat. They have strategic national security, strategic reasons to work together. They have a common threat in Iran,

and they have a common threat in extreme Sunni Muslim Arab activism or at worst terrorism. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the threat is for Muslim Brotherhood. In the case of Israel, the threat is Hamas, as we're seeing. So they had a whole bunch of reasons to partner. Saudi saw in Israel not only a technology superpower and regionally an economic superpower, but it saw in Israel a security and intelligence juggernaut, and they wanted to piggyback on all of it. The big setback of October 7th is I think the Saudis look at Israel and say, huh, we thought you guys were a security and intelligence juggernaut. How does a security and intelligence juggernaut completely miss this, miss October 7th? So if anything, the Israel's weakness on October 7th is what is setting back the potential for Saudi-Israeli

normalization, which is why the Israelis generally believe, and the Israelis and the leadership, I personally believe, this idea that Israel needs to be tempered in its response as a way to get the Saudi-Israeli normalization back on track, I think is completely misguided. If Israel is tempered, Israel will look weak. It will look weak. If a country can unleash the attempted genocide that Israel thought and the region thought was a ragtag militia, the way it did on October 7th. It makes Israel look like a paper tiger. And a paper tiger is not what the Saudis are going to want to do business with. In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, for the first couple of weeks, Israel was completely set back, completely caught

off guard and embarrassed. And then Israel bounced back. And when Israel bounced back within a matter of months, it was not only surrounding the Egyptian Third Army in the Sinai, but it was staring down at Damascus and Cairo. And they could have taken either one of those cities. They didn't. The point is, it was unequivocal. Israel's ultimate victory in 1973 was unequivocal. You go to U.S. military academies, they don't study the Six-Day War, even though the Six-Day War is arguably the more impressive war. At the U.S. military academies, they study the 1973 Yom Kippur War because it's a story

of bounce back, of resilience, of turning things around and how Israel did it. And what Israel ultimately did in 1973 is they exposed Egypt's military and Syria's military as the paper tigers. And it's not surprising that within less than a decade, Israel had a peace treaty with one of those two countries, with Egypt, which at the time was the Saudi Arabia of the region. It's because Israel demonstrated strength. And if you fast forward to today, I think the big risk for Israel is the IDF after what happened on October 7 looks like the paper tiger. And an IDF that looks like a paper tiger is not one that Saudi is going to want to do

business with. Israel's contract with its own people was broken on October 7 because of that security collapse. And it has to repair that. But it also has to do it to repair its geopolitical position. And I think if it demonstrates that it has wiped out this Hamas threat and it has to repair that. But it also has to do it to repair its geopolitical position. And I think if it demonstrates that it has wiped out this Hamas threat and it has restored security and that October 7th was bad, it was a setback. But in the scheme of history, it will be viewed as a hopefully develop something resembling a sustainable peace in the U.S. One, it feels to me in hindsight, Obama's decision to withdraw from the Middle East was a mistake. That without whatever you want to call us, the world's policemen, there was a vacuum that was filled by people who didn't represent Western interests. I don't think there's ever going to be a sustainable

peace with Hamas in power, which I'm sure you agree with. What you probably disagree with is I don't think there's a sustainable peace as long as Netanyahu's in office. And that is, I just think the disassembly of the courts, the way they have approached, quite frankly, Dan, I think his approach to Hamas is, or not Ham obviously, you can't have a terrorist organization representing a government whose only amendment is the extermination of a race of people. But I also don't think it's sustainable as long as we have kind of this far-right government in Israel. And I'm curious what your thoughts are there. I have known Netanyahu for a long time. I have been supportive of many things he's done over his many decades of public service. I have been deeply concerned before October 7th

about some of the way his government has tackled certain issues. You mentioned judicial reform, which is one of them, but not the only one, since he returned to power in 2023. I think the Israelis are ruthless about accountability and scrutiny when there are security setbacks. Ruthless. I mean, the United States could learn something from this. If you look at what happened after the Yom Kippur War, even though Israel ultimately was successful and won the war, it ended Golda Meir's career. There was a commission of inquiry and set back the Labor Party really for a generation politically. You look at the 2006 Second Lebanon War, ended Ehud Omer's political life. I think that the idea, there will be a commission of inquiry after this war and the

idea that Netanyahu is going to be let off the hook. I just don't buy it. He was he was he was prime minister when it happened. Now, in fairness, he wasn't the only prime minister since Israel disengaged from Gaza. Israel left Gaza in 2005. Since Israel left from Gaza, there was Prime Minister Sharon, there was Prime Minister Omer, there was Prime Minister Bennett, there was Prime Minister Lapid, and then there was Prime Minister Netanyahu. So there were many prime ministers who were all familiar with Israel's policy. But he more than anyone shaped the policy. I think just look at the politics of the country right now where public opinion is. There's no way any prime minister can politically survive something like this. This is catastrophic. As I

said, it's worse than the Yom Kippur War. I can't think of another setback Israel has faced that is as bad as this. And it not only happened on his watch, but he was Mr. Security. His whole political brand was, you may not like me. You may not like me, but I'll keep you safe. Right. Well, so much for that. And so I just think this question, can he be the one? I just don't think he will be the one. We'll be right back. So let's move to your book. The thing that struck me in your book, and I love this line, you said the United States has strong institutions, but a weak society, and Israel has a very strong society, but weak institutions. Say more. Look, in the United States, and you've written extensively about this, and I know your audience is very familiar with it, but I want to

just spend a moment on it to establish the contrast. It's really American society is broken. We have record levels of loneliness. We have a demographic crisis brewing. People aren't having children anymore, at least not at the rates they were, which means our population, like many populations around the world, are going to are aging and shrinking. These are aging and most Western affluent democracies are aging and shrinking. Now, Japan is at the pointy end of the spear. I was in Japan last April and I was meeting with some government officials who point to the fact that its population is shrinking as the biggest threat to the country, not China, not

China. The biggest threat to Japan is they're an aging and shrinking country and aging and shrinking countries become economically busted because the younger there aren't enough young people to support older people and they become less innovative. You have a loneliness epidemic. You have a you have a mental health crisis. You have a teen mental health crisis. And I know you've written a lot about it. And the phrase I never in a million years thought I would see. And I'm the father of two teenage boys, as I know you are. The CDC comes out with this report a few months ago. There is a teen suicide crisis. Just that term, a teen. That's a thing. You know, record staggering levels of despair from drug abuse, alcohol abuse and suicide at record levels. So Israel, on every one of these metrics, and this is what we lay out in the book, every one of these metrics is not just doing a little better.

It's in an opposite direction. Israel's population, its fertility rate is way above the replacement level. Israelis are having lots and lots of children. It's not just the ultra-Orthodox families. It's secular, hyper-secular Israelis working in tech in the coolest, hippest parts of very hedonistic Tel Aviv are having three, four, and five children. Israelis are living longer than Europeans, Americans. There's no loneliness crisis. There's no teen mental health crisis.

There's a sense of happiness and optimism. Even during low points, Israel ranks the fourth happiest country in the world. And when I raise this, friends of mine who write about this issue, when they point to the brokenness of American society, they point to things like, well, what do you expect from why people are living with such despair in the United States? All they're hearing about is climate change catastrophe. Young people are only hearing about school shootings. There's political polarization is off the charts. And, you know, they go on and on and on and on. And I point out Israel has every one of those things. Oh,

by the way, and they're spending all their time scrolling on their phones. So it is true. Americans are exposed to a lot of information about climate catastrophe. So are Israelis. You want to talk about gun violence? I mean, young Israelis, almost every one of them at age 18 go to serve in the military and they know what it's like to have their lives on the lines or to lose friends and to lose loved ones. They really know what violence in their daily life is about. Political polarization in Israel at times is off the charts, especially in 2023, where you had hundreds of thousands of people storming the streets every Saturday night to protest. And Israeli kids have as much access to smartphones as anyone else. So why? Like Israel has all these dynamics. It has weak institutions,

as we saw in the judicial reform debate in 2023, as we saw in Israel's immediate response to October 7th, weak institutions, weak government institutions. But the society is thriving. People feel connected to each other. They feel connected to the country. They feel connected to community. They feel connected to their families. And so how does that manifest itself? One, and I'm just going to give a couple examples. In the book, we go through a whole bunch. You can't underestimate the role of national service.

So the fact that a majority of Israelis at their formative years in their lives, 18, 19, 20, 21, don't go to college. And they don't spend the years leading up to that trying to get into the best college. The sorting system in the United States is the college application process, which is all about, everything about the college application process is me, I, my performance, individual excellence. How did I do? What are my grades? What are my SAT tests? What kind of reference letters can I persuade someone? How am I better? What are my grades? What are my SAT tests? What kind of reference letters can I persuade someone? How am I better than the person on my left and right? Right. Where in Israel, if you want to serve when you everyone, most people serve in the military, the goal is to get into the best units possible. It doesn't matter how talented

you are. It doesn't matter what kind of individual excellence you have. If you can't work with other people, if you can't serve as part of a team effectively, if you don't understand what it means to be part of a group, if you don't have a communal mindset, you won't get admitted to those best units. And so the whole incentive system is kids are getting older, beginning with youth movements when they're young, the army when they're 18. All the incentives are about how do I perform with other people, not just me? And I will be rewarded based on how I work with other people. It changes the whole culture of the country. And, you know, we write in the book about the role of Shabbat, of Friday nights, of the Sabbath. We call it Thanksgiving every week. Now, some Jews observe it more religiously and traditionally than others. But the point is the overwhelming majority of Israelis shut down every Friday night to be with family, friends, two generations, three generations, sometimes four generations. And there's a sense that they are sharing in that experience with the people they love. And the whole country is sharing that experience. Dan Senor is a bestselling author, the host of the Call Me Back podcast, and a co-founder of the Board of Directors of the Foreign Policy Initiative.

He also serves as a partner at Elliott Management. Previously, Dan served as a senior advisor to former Speaker Paul Ryan's campaign for vice president and foreign policy advisor to Senator Mitt Romney's presidential campaigns. His new book, The Genius of Israel, The Surprising Resilience of a Divided Nation in a Turbulent World, is out now. He joins us from his home in Manhattan. Dan, I remember I took Ashley, my younger sister we referenced before, to Washington, D.C., on a tour of D.C., hoping that it would inspire her. And the good news was it did. The bad news is she immediately became an intern in some crazy right wing Republicans office. And me as a, you know, a deep had hoped. And now I look back on that fondly because I just think you've grown into such an impressive man. And I really also just want to

say I appreciate the resilience and the courage you're showing around this issue. Anyways, Dan, I'm just thrilled to reconnect with you and congratulations on the life and the success you've built. Thank you, Scott. Obviously, that means a lot to me. I do remember your visits. And I will say, as much as you felt that your sister was getting enveloped by crazy right-wing Republicans, we will look back with— They seem moderate. Yeah, quaint. That was a quaint time. They seem—

The Cheneys seem reasonable. Yeah, we're going to romanticize the Gingrich era of the 1990s. A hundred percent. That's the reason why. All right, brother, stay safe. Thanks. Thank you. Algebra of Happiness.

I am at that age where people are just dying left and right. It's just so weird. I think in your 50s, a lot of strange shit pops up and takes people out. And then if they get into their 60s, they're kind of, I don't know, their body gets set. I don't know what it is. And most recently, my closest friend in high school, Brett Jarvis, lost his older brother, Derek Jarvis, who I believe was 60 years old, only a few weeks after his father passed. They were going to his father's service. Derek Jarvis, the older brother who'd been suffering from diabetes, went into the bathroom, collapsed, and was put on life support, and then they removed the life support. So that's a fun way to start, algebra of happiness. The reason I bring it up is we had a guest on Pivot talking about foster care. Obviously, people decide to take in kids who aren't biologically theirs to try and look after them and some of the shortcomings of foster care, but that's not what this is about. I effectively had foster parents, and that was the Jarvises. My mother was a secretary. She worked in the Valley. She ran

the secretarial pool, and then she worked at Southwestern University in downtown LA. And I was pretty much alone all the time. No siblings. My dad was gone. My mom was working all the time. And so my kind of surrogate or foster parents were the Jarvis's. And Brett was a scholar athlete. There was three brothers, Doug, Brett, and Derek. Brett was my closest friend from the seventh grade through when we graduated high school. And we were literally attached to the hip. And the thing that bonded us was laughter. We just had kind of a similar weird sense of humor.

And there would be times, I'm not exaggerating, where we would be at university high school in the quad, like rolling on the ground because we couldn't stop. We just couldn't stop laughing about something. And Brett was a scholar athlete, ended up going to Stanford. I think I got a lot of aspiration from Brett. Brett was smarter than me, but not that much smarter. And we both came from middle-class homes. His was solidly middle class. Mine was sort of upper, lower middle classclass homes. His was solidly middle-class, mine was sort of upper-lower middle-class. But the fact that he was going to Stanford, I think, gave me the confidence to apply to UCLA. And every Monday night, I used to go to their house for a family night. It's a Mormon tradition. They're Mormons. I don't know if I mentioned that. And as I look back on those six years with kind of my foster family, the Jarvises, I was surrounded by family.

I was surrounded by sports. I was surrounded by America. They're very patriotic. I was surrounded by success. They put a big emphasis on success. I was surrounded by kindness. And I was also not surrounded by alcohol and drugs. And I speak pretty flippantly about my alcohol consumption now, but I am really grateful that I ended up in an environment, specifically my friendship with Brett and my involvement with the Jarvis family, where I never smoked pot or I never drank until

the age of 19. And I played instead that void of fun and partying was filled with sports. And when I look back on that time and I think about some of the things that I'm grateful for and some of the things I like about myself now, I think really sorry about not only your father, but your brother. This family has registered immense loss in the last few weeks. But that your family just had such a wonderful and profound impact on me. So what's the learning? What's actionable from the experience I've just outlined with the Jarvis family? If you're fortunate enough to have built a life of love and family and you have resources, you know, there really is no greater gift. There's no greater expression, I would argue, of masculinity or of, I don't know, investing in the Commonwealth to become irrationally passionate

about the well-being of another child's life and invite them into your wonderful family. And I mean, I just became part of this family and they didn't need to have me there. And unfortunately, I think a lot of us think that that would, I don't know, we're not as prone to do that. And that is, I think, this just this tremendous investment in the universe. So if you're in a position to reach out, you see a kid, encourage your sons and your daughters to invite their friends over and, you know, slowly but surely see if you can make them part of your foster family. Anyways, rest in peace, Derek Jarvis, and thank you to the Jarvis family. This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin,

Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer and Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the PropGPod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice as read by George Hahn and on Monday with our weekly market show.