The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - No Mercy / No Malice: The Podcast Election

Episode Date: November 9, 2024

As read by George Hahn. https://www.profgalloway.com/the-podcast-election/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. It's not always easy to harness the power and potential of AI. For all the talk around its revolutionary potential, a lot of AI systems feel like they're designed for specific tasks, performed by a select few. Well, Claude, by Anthropic, is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price.

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Ready, set, grow. Go to constantcontact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to constantcontact.ca for your free trial. Constantcontact.ca Trial, constantcontact.ca. Do you feel like your leads never lead anywhere and you're making content that no one sees and it takes forever to build a campaign? Well, that's why we built HubSpot. It's an AI-powered customer platform that builds campaigns for you, tells you which leads are worth knowing,

and makes writing blogs, creating videos, and posting on social a breeze. So now, it's easier than ever to be a marketer. Get started at HubSpot.com slash marketers. I'm Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice. The election proved that podcasting is the mass medium of our time. The podcast election, as read by George Hahn. I'm still in my pajamas.

Haven't changed since Tuesday night. I'm also drinking a fair amount and toggling between Netflix shows. Nobody wants this, which is pleasant but uber-cliché, i.e. stupid, and monsters, which, as the father of two boys, I find just plain disturbing. In some, for me, it's COVID again. Even my stocks are going up. So 2021. I've received 22 emails in the past 24 hours. When I'm down, I obsess over inconsequential data as a coping mechanism. Asking for my thoughts on the election, my reflexive desire

or megalomaniacal belief that I can comfort strangers leads me to remind them that nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems and that the US remains the US, the richest and freest country on earth. This election was neither what I wanted nor expected, but I'm still very much looking forward to moving back to America. I just read the previous paragraph and it's sort of true. Sort of. My disbelief and despair are shape-shifting to anger. A narcissist, President Biden, crowned an untested candidate and asked her, in 107 days, to overcome the crises of immigration and inflation and the burden of an unpopular incumbency. When two-thirds of the country says we're on the wrong track,

there's no way someone from the current administration can credibly claim to be a change agent, much less the disruptor people are looking for in an age of rage. I am going on AC360, MSNBC, and Smirkanish to discuss the mail vote. This election gave us the opposite of the expected referendum on bodily autonomy. It was the testosterone election. The only thing I'm fairly certain of is what medium played a pivotal role for the first time in young people's decision to violently pivot to Trump.

Podcasts. And that's what this post is about. New forms of media periodically reshape our culture and politics. FDR mastered radio, JFK leveraged TV, and Reagan nailed cable news. Obama energized young voters via the internet. Trump hijacked the world's attention on Twitter. This year, it was podcasting. The three biggest media events of this fall

were the debate and Harrison Trump's respective appearances on Call Her Daddy and the Joe Rogan Experience. Almost half of adult Americans, 136 million people, listen to at least one podcast a month. The global audience is now 505 million, a quarter of the internet's reach. When Trump went on Joe Rogan, Lex Friedman, and this past weekend with Theo Vaughn, he was embracing the Manosphere and riding a tectonic shift in media. The most efficient way to reach the largest and most persuadable audience, i.e. young men, is via podcast.

Nothing comes close. Rogan has 16 million Spotify subscribers and can reach many more people across a variety of other platforms. In just three days after the live podcast, his three-hour long conversation with Trump was viewed 40 million times on YouTube. The audio downloads likely exceeded 15 million. There will be a lot of second-guessing regarding what the Harris campaign should have done. Getting on a plane to Austin to visit Rogan would have been a layup. By comparison, when Trump appeared on Fox News' Gutfeld, which averages about 3 million viewers, he reached 5 million people, and the full episode has been viewed 2.3 million times on YouTube. To reach as many people as he did via Rogan, Trump would have had to do at least three separate one-hour hits on cable TV shows with numbers comparable to Gutfeld.

There is really a handful of those, and they're all on Fox, the top-rated news channel. Any other news network would have been a waste of his time. The typical viewership for CNN is below 1 million, and CNBC's is less than 100k. Anyway, the comparison is apples to cocaine. Specifically, the audience on the pods is not only exponentially bigger, but also much more valuable, i.e. younger, more male, and more persuadable. What if a campaign could gather the tens of millions

of undecided or persuadable voters who may or may not vote and put their candidate in front of them for three hours in an environment that sets the candidate up for success? The Trump campaign achieved this by prioritizing podcasts. Among Fox's 3.5 million regular viewers, 70% are 50 and over and 45% are women. The number two cable network MSNBC reaches 1.5 million viewers most days. Its median viewer is a 70 year old woman. So a big audience of

young men versus a small audience of older women. People listen to pods to learn. They watch cable TV to sanctify what they already believe. The former is much more appealing to candidates and advertisers. Rogan's demographic is 80% male, 93% under 54 and 56% under 34. Men under 34 are the great white rhinos of advertising, the most valuable beast in the consumer jungle, and they're increasingly difficult to find. The average listener of My Prof G podcast is 35 male and makes about 150k a year.

This is an audience I sometimes affectionately call stupid. They have disposable incomes and are in the meeting and mating years, meaning they're prone to buying all kinds of high-margin stuff to try to increase their sexual attractiveness. They're also the cohort ambitious politicians want to reach. Both Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips, who launched a short-lived primary challenge to Biden, and Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton, who loudly called on the president to drop out after his disastrous debate performance, have come on the ProfG pod and been nice to me, and they'll likely come back. It's not my charm.

Both wanna be president and recognize they have to build name recognition with young men. The calculus is simple math. Just as newspapers lost relevance to Google and Meta, cable news is losing relevance to podcasts. We have transitioned from a fossil fuel-based economy to an attention economy. Full stop.

If you command attention, revenue will follow. Note, the best performing tech IPO of 2024 is the fourth most trafficked site in the US, yet the company was valued at only $5.7 billion when it debuted on the Nasdaq seven months ago. Since then, the market cap of Reddit is up 274%. The only ad-supported medium growing as fast as Meta, TikTok, Alphabet, and now Reddit is podcasting. Podcasting revenue grew 18% this year, similar to Alphabet at 15% and

Meta at 17%. Podcasts share of attention is well ahead of their share of ad revenue. This delta will converge. I believe podcast revenue is going to grow faster than that of every other digital platform with the possible exception of TikTok. My guess is that next year, Pod's ad revenue will grow by 20 plus percent. Listenership will continue to grow as well. And the ARPU, like those of Meta and Alphabet, will increase dramatically too,

as advertisers discover this is where young, successful consumers have been hiding. Podcast CPMs now are about $18 for a 30 second ad and $25 for a 60 second ad. When people approach me in the wild, it's easy to discern where they've been exposed to my content. A high five and some bro-y banter? Video. If they greet me like a friend they haven't seen in a while, podcast. It's a very intimate medium. You are physically in somebody's ear, in a private setting, washing the dishes, working out, walking the dog.

It's just you and them. That's one reason advertisers like podcasts, as the audience's I'm being sold to screen is more porous. A listener's guard isn't up. Tom Brokaw never had that kind of relationship with his audience. That level of intimacy also makes podcasting a great medium for interviews. In his conversation with Rogan, Trump seemed unusually relaxed and comfortable, a guy you could grab a beer

with. I always got more publicity than other people, and it wasn't like I was trying. In fact, I don't know exactly why. Maybe you can tell me why. Oh, I could definitely tell you. You said a lot of wild shit. Maybe. And that's typical for a pod.

The medium has a zeitgeist where hosts generally try to present their guests in a good light. Unlike cable TV, the hosts aren't looking for a gotcha moment. We let the guest run. Initially, people accused pods of being radio. They aren't. Pods aren't shackled to the clock for the listener or the podcaster. They're on demand, i.e. streaming. And hosts decide how much time a topic deserves or doesn't.

Think about this. One of the key commercial advantages of movies over TV was the producer's control over the cadence and length of their content. They didn't have the 21 or 41 minute guardrails that network TV later imposed. Rogan thought Trump's story was worth three hours of his audience's time, not one or four.

TV anchors and radio hosts are asked to create differentiated art using a one-size canvas. Broadcasters sink a lot of capital into state of the art studios, satellite trucks, transmitters, fiber optic cables, people, et cetera. Podcasts don't need any of that stuff. That CapEx was a moat that created leverage for the networks and their shareholders who captured most of the medium's profits. They controlled the means of production. The Moats now been crossed. When I go on CNN or another TV network I travel to a studio staffed

by numerous skilled technical people. The network pays their salaries and benefits and gives them offices and snacks. A decent TV studio can easily run 400k. It's also inefficient. My show on CNN Plus, Weekflex, took a dozen or more people the better part of a week to pull together 21 minutes of content. Awesome content, but still. Now my studio looks like a pretentious footballer's dop kit.

I doubt it cost $1,000. Assembled by my tech guy Drew, it travels with me everywhere. Any place that has broadband or just cell reception, I have a studio that can produce content. I'd speculate a third of my podcasts are done from somewhere other than my home studio. Think about how efficient that is. It enables me to host or co-host three pods a week and appear on many more.

That kind of portability wasn't physically possible pre-COVID. Meanwhile, net neutrality ensures that any podcast I go on is available to anyone, anytime. There is no technical reason I could not, in theory, reach every one of the 5.25 billion humans on the planet with a digital device. In broadcast and cable TV, the platform has always been bigger than the talent. In podcasting, it's the other way around. There is little sustainable enterprise value in a podcast company. What matters isn't capex or infrastructure, it's talent. That's why a lot of individual

podcasters are getting rich, but not a lot of podcast company shareholders. All you really need to start is a computer and an internet connection. You don't have to run the obstacle course of suits you'd encounter trying to get into TV or radio or any other old media, which is another reason advertisers love podcasts. There are fewer hands in the talent's pocket and fewer hands in their pockets, resulting in a greater ROI on ad spend. Low capex means the profits can be enormous once a podcaster covers the costs of producing two pods a week, like two or three producers and a part-time

sound engineer. The ProfG Podcast portfolio, ProfG, ProfG Markets, Raging Moderates, will register 2025 revenue of approximately $10 million. We employ five producers, two analysts, and a technical director and sound engineer. Few businesses garner one million dollars plus per employee. Pivot, the podcast I co-host with Kara Swisher, does more revenue with even fewer resources. Note, Vox, our distribution partner, is responsible for ad sales. The pods that make the jump to light speed, covering their fixed costs, and few do, are very profitable businesses. The best part? A. As I have a great team with some people I've worked with for over a decade or more,

I spend 8-12 hours total per week on the pods. The leverage on my time is substantial. The cocktail of broad reach and low overhead translates to more for less for advertisers and talent. All the moons have lined up and podcasting is on an upward spiral. But as with most everything digital, podcasting is a winner take most or all proposition because everyone has access to everyone. A scant handful of pods, those with the biggest listenerships,

capture nearly all the ad revenue. By some estimates, of the 600,000 podcasts that produce content each week, the top 10 get half the revenue. Put another way, to build a business in podcasting that pays people well and keeps the attention of a host with high opportunity costs, you likely need to be in the top 0.1% by listenership. The odds of success are admittedly long. If you're a high school drama student who goes on to join SAG-AFTRA, you're two times more likely to win an Academy Award than have a sustainable pod.

As a member of UCLA's crew team, I was 3.5 times more likely to end up in the Olympics than telling dick jokes and making a good living on a successful podcast. I could do this all day. The political power of podcasting is only beginning to be felt. This election was supposed to be a referendum

on bodily autonomy. It wasn't. Historically, the candidate who raises the most money wins. She didn't. In each election, the victor is likely to be whoever best weaponizes an emerging medium. He did. By far, the most potent media weapon this time was podcasting. Life is so rich.

Support for this podcast comes from Anthropic. It's not always easy to harness the power and potential of AI. For all the talk around its revolutionary potential, a lot of AI systems feel like they're designed for specific tasks performed by a select few. Well, Claude, by Anthropic, is AI for everyone. The latest model, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, offers groundbreaking intelligence at an everyday price. Claude Sonnet can generate code, help with writing, and reason through heart problems

better than any model before. You can discover how Claude can transform your business at anthropic.com slash Claude. Hello, I'm Esther Perel, psychotherapist and host of the podcast Where Should We Begin, which delves into the multiple layers of relationships, mostly romantic. But in this special series, I focus on our relationships with our colleagues, business partners and managers. Listen in as I talk to co-workers facing their own challenges with one another and get the real work done.

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