The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - Office Hours: eBay’s Brand Bust, VC Geography, Public Service, and Home Buying Advice

Episode Date: May 24, 2021

Scott answers a question about where eBay stands in the Amazon era. He also shares his thoughts on the concentration of venture capital investments in California, Massachusetts, and New York, why it can be worth it to lose money in the housing market, and why the world needs young Americans to participate in public service. Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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NMLS 1617539. Welcome to the Prop G Show's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehoursatpropertymedia.com. Again, that's officehoursatpropertymedia.com. Again, that's officehoursatpropertymedia.com. By the way, a little inside baseball here, a little color, a little texture on Office Hours. I do not see the questions before they are played. Our producer, Caroline Chagrin, will feed me some stats for my answers, such that I look, you know, like more of a baller, more of a wonk, more of an academic, more of someone who actually knows what the fuck they're talking about, which oftentimes isn't the case.

But I want to be authentic, and I want to be real. So these aren't off-the-cuff answers because these are things we think a lot about, but this is, you know, we're trying to give it to you straight. We're trying to give you, you know, all sols and no chip. That's right. That's right. I'll take that 1942 tequila. Neat. Neat. Straight up. I don't drink tequila. It makes me anxious the next day. And at this point, I do not need more

anxiety in my life. Can you hear it in my voice now? I'm over-caffeinated. I'm worried about everything. Worried about everything. It's strange. It's strange. Let's talk more about me before we get into office hours. From the age of about, I don't know, zero to 35, I was literally sleepwalking through life. I almost failed out of UCLA about three times, which would have been bad for me on a cosmic level. I was never very good at any job. I think I've been fired from almost every job I've ever had. That's why I started my own business is I wanted to take away that risk. I wasn't fired from Morgan Stanley, but it was a two-year program. So I made it through 24 months. Yay, Scott. But I was never just that worried about anything. And I think anxiety plays a role instinctually. And that is, you should be worried there might

be a lion behind those waving reeds because occasionally there is and that shit will eat you. And so anxiety is actually a productive instinct and emotion. What happens is it's hard to modulate your anxiety. So when I was young, I could have easily been run over my moped. Why the fuck did I have a moped? Because I wasn't worried about it and didn't wear a helmet.

Why? Because I wasn't worried about it. Why did I have a car without airbags? Because I just wasn't anxious about dying in a car accident when I should have been. And then from about 35 to 45, I think I had just the right amount of anxiety, worried about stuff that I should be worried about,

but not needlessly worried. Now I am needlessly worried about stupid shit all the time. I don't wanna say I suffer from anxiety because some people are literally paralyzed, but if I'm really worried about something and I start freaking out about something, it's usually not that thing. It's usually about me.

What I find is it's not the shit you're worried about that gets you. And there's actually, it's a syndrome or it's an effect or a principle that's been named, I forget what it's called. But in some, when you're worried about something, you prepare against it. It's the shit you don't see coming that gets you. Anyway, a little bit of a digression, a little bit of a left turn in Dogtown. Let's go to the questions. Question number one. Hi, Scott. This is Craig from Boulder, Colorado, and I'm calling to ask you about eBay. I listen to Prof G and Pivot regularly, and you never mentioned the company.

Is that because it lacks anything newsworthy or relevant, and do you see it going anywhere? I'm 37 years old and left a marketing career. I began right out of college to start a full-time reselling business on eBay almost two years ago. Now my business is primarily in outdoor sports apparel, and the business is sustaining myself and my fiance

in a mortgage in Boulder. But I fear eBay has or will continue to lack a defining new story or customer features that will maintain its usefulness, especially for a person running a business on it. There are a few factors I think that are working in its favor, including more people at home buying and selling things through the pandemic, the Marie Kondo or the clean-out effect, and interest in sustainability through buying secondhand. So my question is set in the context that eBay was once considered a giant of e-commerce, and while it seems to still have brand awareness, what can they do to maintain

or grow their position? A really thoughtful question. So eBay was one of the original horsemen, one of the original ballers, Craig. It was, you know, sort of Yahoo, eBay, Amazon, Netscape. I don't know who the kind of the original thing was or the original gangsters. eBay was right in there. And not that long ago, about the turn of the millennium, kind of 20, maybe 15 years ago, eBay had a similar market capitalization as Amazon. And now, I mean, I think Amazon is like 100 or 200 times more valuable than eBay. As a matter of fact, when eBay spun PayPal, their payment system that they incubated internally at eBay, PayPal is now worth, I think, 20 or 30 times what eBay is worth. There's no doubt about it.

eBay is a disappointment. I don't know if it was the wrong strategy, if people just moved away from the idea of auctions and just wanted everyday low prices from Amazon. But eBay has not commanded the space it occupied in almost 15 years. And one of the things I remember about eBay, I teach a brand strategy course, and there's something called a brand essence. And that is, at the very core of a company's brand, what is the emotion you're supposed to feel? And eBay's was joy and boundless opportunity. And I always thought that was a wonderful brand essence, if you will. Joy and boundless opportunity. And it really covered two stakeholders.

The first is the joy part. It's fun to bid on eBay. You feel like a sense of like, Abaco 835, I'm going to get that Pez dispenser. You watch, I'm coming in and bidding $60. And then you get a notification saying you've won your auction. There's joy in that. It's fun. It's gamified.

It's cool. It's fun. There's joy in that. And then the boundless opportunity is that, Craig, there are supposedly half a million families like yours who make their living on eBay. And that's wonderful. It brought life to a part of the economy. There are supposedly half a million families like yours who make their living on eBay. And that's wonderful. It brought life to a part of the economy.

This was kind of the original gig economy, except it wasn't exploiting people that you could make a living, a good living, using eBay as a platform. And I don't think they have a reputation for being as rapacious. Maybe that was the problem with their third-party sellers on the platform. But there's just no getting around it. The company, it's just a shadow of itself strategically. In April, eBay reported it ended the first quarter of 2021 with 187 million active buyers, up 7% from a year earlier annual. Active sellers grew by 8%

for a total of 20 million global active sellers. eBay stock actually outpaced Walmart's in 2020. And that's a bit misleading because I bet I'd like to zoom out and see what it's done in the last 10 years. By the end of 2020, eBay stock price had increased about 38% from the beginning of the year. In comparison, Walmart went up about 20%. Meanwhile, Amazon up 71%. But according to Bloomberg, eBay warned investors in April that its sales boost, which the e-commerce company largely credits to the pandemic and stimulus checks may be coming to an end as businesses reopen. I wonder really what's going to happen with eBay. It feels to me like eBay needs to make a bold move or do something or be acquired, or I don't know.

It just feels as if, I mean, I just never even hear about eBay anymore. But look, boss, it feels like you've figured out something. I wonder if there are other platforms. I mean, I just never even hear about eBay anymore. But look, boss, it feels like you've figured out something. I wonder if there are other platforms. I mean, the one I immediately think of is Shopify. It feels like Shopify has come in and just absolutely taken eBay's thunder and then some. And instead of an auction format, it's figuring out a way to provide tools and true infrastructure for third-party sellers

such as yourself and be a real partner as opposed to Amazon, which partners with third-party sellers the way a virus partners with a host. It ends up working for one of them, not the other, and that's always Amazon. But anyways, back to eBay. It doesn't command the space it occupies,

but if you have the ability to source merchandise and find platforms that will sell your product, you know, right on, my brother. It sounds like you're living the life. Colorado, Colorado. Thanks for the question. Next question. Hey, Prof G.

This is Will McKelvey calling you from Dayton, Ohio. I'm starting the MBA program at Berkeley Haas this fall. But my question isn't about business school. It's about venture capital. Specifically, the fact that 80% of all the US VC investment currently lands in three states, California, New York, and Massachusetts. Given the rapid acculturation to some level of remote engagement brought on by the pandemic and internal migration data that showed that Americans are on net leaving places like New York,

San Francisco, and L.A. even before 2020, what do you think the likelihood is of venture capital becoming more dispersed? More broadly, what's your outlook on the future of startups in BC from a geographic perspective? Thanks. Go Bears. Will from Dayton, Ohio. Oh my God, you sexy beast. You got into Haas. People don't know that. So I was on the advisory board of the board of directors for the Haas School of Business. I'm an alum there. Changed my life. Changed my life. Total tuition of, I went there from 2000 to 2002. Actually, I went there from 2000 to 2002 actually I went there from 1990 to 1992 but I've decided to pretend I'm a decade younger Botox you know peels working out a lot what's a term for that midlife crisis midlife

crisis bad news it's going strong good news I will grow out of it in 40 to 50 years I use that joke a lot. It never gets old. But listen, boss, one of the many things that people do not know about Haas is we are one of the most selective schools in the nation, which by the way, I don't think is a good thing. But my point is, you must be an incredibly impressive young man

to have gained admittance to the Haas School of Business. Changed my life. I think for a total of $4,000 in tuition, I got an MBA and it kind of began an upward spiral for me professionally. So I owe California taxpayers and the vision of the Regents of the University of California a great deal.

Anyways, congratulations on getting into Haas. So back to your question, back to your question. So lately, California has been going through a bit of a bust. CNBC reported that from July 2019 to July 2020, 136,000 more people left California than moved there. It's the 12th time since 1900 the state has had a net migration loss and the third largest loss ever recorded. California saw booms during the gold rush after World War II when the U.S. was investing in the aerospace and defense industries. And again in the 80s and early 90s, with the rise of Silicon Valley, the state went through busts in the mid-90s, when the U.S. cut back on aerospace spending, again during the Great Recession. And now it's going through another one. In December,

it recorded its third consecutive year of net migration loss. One of my favorite stats is that the San Francisco commercial real estate sector registered the lowest and highest occupancy rates in a 12-month period. So right before the pandemic, lowest occupancy rates ever recorded for office space in San Francisco. Just a few months later, post-pandemic, highest vacancy rates. According to the National Venture Capital Association, the U.S. attracted 51% of global VC investment dollars in 2020. That's down from 2004 when the U.S. held 83 percent of global investments. Within the U.S., you're absolutely right. VC investments are still kind of largely concentrated in California, New York, and Massachusetts. Those three states account for

85 percent of total U.S. VC assets under management in 2020. New Mexico, Kansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Washington were among the states with the highest year-over-year increases in VC assets under management in 2020. Kentucky? Who would have thought that off a low base, I bet? Kentucky? There you go. The innovation state. At the end of 2020, 37 states had more than $100 million in assets under management, up from the 31 states with the same amount at the end of 2019. To put that in perspective, however, just one Silicon Valley VC, Andreessen Horowitz, has $17 billion under management. What do people not talk about? What is the key, in my opinion, the secret sauce to a quote-unquote venture-driven ecosystem

or a large startup ecosystem that attracts capital? Simple. Is there a world-class engineering university? Look at Stanford, look at Berkeley, look at any company that's added more than $10 billion in stakeholder value in tech within a 12-month period, much less $100 billion in value within a five-year period. And I'll show you a company that is a bike ride

from a world-class engineering university. What happens? Two guys meet in the Stanford PhD program and say, hey, let's build a list dialoguing all websites. And they go, I know, let's do search. Maybe we can run ads along the right rail, okay? And then they stay in Stanford or they stay in Palo Alto and they start hiring people.

And a bunch of people make billions of dollars. And those people say, you know, we like the dry weather of the valley. And they start VC funds, and they put down roots, and they create, and then more and more people coming out of Stanford and Berkeley get funded, and it just kind of creates, again, this upward spiral. Why are Massachusetts and New York number two. Hello, world-class universities. Hello, Harvard. Hello, New York, NYU, Columbia, Cornell. I mean, for God's sakes, hello, Boston, MIT. Heard of them? Heard of them, MIT?

So in my home state, Florida, I've actually had some elected representatives reach out to me and ask for advice on how to create a more robust technology ecosystem in Florida. And I always say the same thing. It's going to take decades and it's going to take billions of dollars. And it's called a world-class engineering and technology university, which we do not have.

The University of Florida is good. It's not great. What's the MIT? What's the Stanford? What's the Berkeley of Florida? It's not there. It's not there. It's not there. That is really the ground zero for a technology ecosystem.

Even Spotify was founded by people from, I forget the name of the university, in Stockholm, or I'm sure someone will tweet at me. It's this university, and we're very proud of it. Look at BlackBerry. Look at Shopify.

They're in Waterloo, where there's a great technology university. Olapik, a tiny company I was on the board of, got all their engineers in. Cordoba, there's a great university in Cordoba that's fantastic in engineering. Anyways, that's the forward-leaning investment, my brother. And that is how, in my opinion, states maintain their leadership. There's going to need to be an inter rate tax treaty such that a guy like Elon Musk can't sit on an unrealized gain. And when he decides that he wants to start cashing out,

he pieces out to a Texas or a Florida. Miami's tech boom right now, if you will, it's not really a tech boom. It's a lot of tech entrepreneurs have moved there because they're sitting on huge unrealized gains. And when they start realizing those gains, they'd rather get taxed 14% less than they would in California or New York. So hopefully they will take those gains and reinvest in the Florida ecosystem. And Miami has a huge running start right now.

It's getting a lot of attention, a really thoughtful, aggressive mayor, great quality of life, but we're gonna need some sort of interest rate tax cut because I just don't think that's sustainable. But anyways, cities are like asset classes. They go up and down. But in general, in general, cities, the death of cities has been greatly exaggerated. People aren't leaving San Francisco for Modesto or Visalia. Visalia? Visalia? My college roommate, my freshman roommate was from Visalia. Died alone of AIDS. Another story. Anyways,

he was from Visalia. People aren't leaving San Francisco to go to Modesto or Visalia, died alone of AIDS. Another story. Anyways, he was from Visalia. People aren't leaving San Francisco to go to Modesto or Visalia. They're leaving to go to Austin or Miami. So cities are still the place to be. Cities are still where you want to get to. Greatest concentration of humanity means, or whenever you get a concentration of humans, you get innovation, you get creativity,

you get great bars, which is important, which is important. And you get opportunities to bump off of people. You get more opportunities for business deals. You get more opportunities to find a right partner and mate. I always say to anybody, anybody when you're young, unless you're really tied down or have incredible opportunities where you are, get to a city. Anyways, anyways, where are we headed with this? I think you're going to see a boom in some tier

two cities, quote unquote, but it'll be the tier two cities with great universities. Austin, is that tier one now? Maybe. You know who else is going to do really well? You heard it here. San Luis, St. Louis. Why? WashU, which has a world-class engineering program. And WashU has become an incredible university. So what's going to happen? A couple of seniors are going to develop some dumb ass app that's going to get $100 million in funding and it's going to go public or get bought for $2 billion. And they're going to say, you know what? St. Louis is kind of cool. Or one of them is going to meet the guy of their dreams and decide to settle down there. They'll start a small VC fund when they get bought out. And then boom, St. Louis

is a tech player. That's what's going to happen. There is some dispersal. People are more mobile because of the pandemic has shown us we can work from almost anywhere. But the tier two cities with world-class universities are going to be the ones that pick up the slack here. Thank you for the question. We have one quick break before our final two questions. Stay with us.

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And what privacy issues should you ultimately watch out for? And to help us out, we are joined by Kylie Robeson, the senior AI reporter for The Verge, to give you a primer on how to integrate AI into your life. So, tune into AI Basics, How and When to Use AI, a special series from Pivot sponsored by AWS, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. Question number three.

Hey, Prof G. This is Chris Messina. I recently had a call with my mom, and she told me that she sold her house in Florida to move back up to New England to be closer to family. I was suggesting that even though the housing market has been hot, she should probably not try to time the market to buy her next home, but instead be willing to just spend a little bit more to get the property that she wants sooner. However, she's concerned that we're overdue for a bubble burst and that she should wait. But it seems to me like the pundits have been anticipating a bust for several years and it just hasn't happened. And then of course the pandemic happened. Now, maybe low interest rates are one way to explain why there hasn't been a bubble burst. But my question to you, which will of course inform the advice that I give my mom, is this. If you were to apply your framework about

the great dispersion to when the next financial bubble might burst, should we expect the same kind of massive bubble burst that we've seen before, like with a financial crisis? Or are we moving towards something more like a bubble wrap era of small distributed flare outs, a la GameStop, Dogecoin and others, largely thanks to the financialization of basically everything. Bottom line, what advice would you give to my mom about when to buy her next, and probably last, retirement home? Chris from Oakland, let me just say that taking a vested interest in your mother's well-being and applying your skills and your leadership and just taking care of her the way she took care of you reflects a lot of character on your part. And it's also going to be something in 10, 20, 30 years, you're going to treasure that you did that. It's going to just make you feel better about yourself. And it's going to be a nod to your mom and to your God and make you a better dad and

set a good example. You know, just good for you, good for your relationship with your mom, good for the planet. So I don't know, this is situational. I don't know where the house, I don't know your weight class economically. I don't know how, you know, the resources and the money you have. I can tell you what I did. When my mom got diagnosed with cancer for the second time,

she thought if I just work three or five more years, I'll have enough money to buy a house. And I said, look, you've got cancer for the second time. She thought, if I just work three or five more years, I'll have enough money to buy a house. And I said, look, you've got cancer for the second time. Life is finite. Let's cash out now. Let's sell the house in LA and let's buy the house in Las Vegas. And we didn't try and time the market. I think it is really difficult to time the market because as crazy as real estate is now, there's always a chance that you sell one house and think you're going to rent and try and thread the needle and time the market, and the market goes up. And then you're not only not in the house that you wanted for your mom, you're not only have to move again, but you're kicking yourself because prices kept going up. It is very hard to time the market. And with something like a house and consumption, what I would suggest is you get her to her next home. And if you're in a position to help her out,

the priority right now is getting your mom to a home she loves and freeing up her mental and physical energy such that she can spend more time with her family and doing things she loves. It goes really fast. It goes really fast. From the time my mom moved to Las Vegas to the time she passed away, it was, I think, maybe seven or eight years. And it just went by so fast. And I was so happy. I was in a position to help her. I was making a lot of money, but I was making some money. I was in a position to help her get a little bit nicer place than she would have on her own. We bought a place in a senior's community in Summerlin, Nevada. I think it was called the Del Webb Active Living Community or something like that. And I gave her a little bit

of money or helped out such that she could buy a home facing the golf course. And then I had done some work with Williams-Sonoma and they were really nice people. They gave me a discount and I was able to outfit my mom's entire house with pottery barn, which she just thought was just so elegant and so cool and hip. And it was just a very nice moment for us. I think if you're doing well to be in a position to help your mom, it's just so rewarding. I wouldn't try and time the market. Get your mom to a nice place. Get her set such that she can focus on. And look, that's her last house. By the way, when my mom died, I ended up selling the house for less than we bought it for. We lost money. And you know what? It was worth it, boss. Get your mom to a great home such that she can focus on the really important things,

and that is her relationship with you and her grandkids and just enjoying her life. Thanks for the question, Chris. And I just think it's wonderful that you're focused on taking care of your mom. It speaks to you and your character. Question number four. Hi, Scott.

Troy from Washington here. Want to ask your thoughts on public service for our younger generations. At the end of your Esther Perel interview, Question number four. Appreciate the humor, but the sentiment aligns with the perception of career risk and personal risk associated with public service, and that those risks aren't necessary for anyone with better options in the private sector. I got an MBA after serving in the Army and now work in tech. I'd love for more citizens to have the chance to serve, whether through Peace Corps, Teach for America, the military, or the many other forms of public service. How do you think we can improve the brand of public service and help encourage young people to see service as a launchpad for their careers instead of a risk? Could an optional service program for young people

help mitigate the effects of increasing costs of education and challenges in finding work? A really thoughtful question. So I've been saying throughout the pandemic that there should be a Corona Corps where we assemble a fighting force of a half a million 18 to 24 year olds best suited to fight COVID-19. And now, given that the U.S. is vaccinating at five times the rate of the rest of the world and roughly 40 percent of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated.

I believe we should we discuss this with our guest, Neil Ferguson. We should be deploying our resources and human capital to help the countries that are most in need. India is up to 400,000 infections a day. In April, NPR reported Brazil's average daily death toll reached above 3,000, the highest in the world at the time. I read a report somewhere that said they think there could be 100,000 deaths a day at some point in India. It just feels like there's an incredible opportunity for Americans to realize our connective tissue is America and to coordinate some sort of public service around helping others around the world. I think it's an incredible opportunity, maybe the biggest opportunity that's been presented to America in a long time as it relates to public service. So I was sort

of joking that my kids can't do military service. I think military service is wonderful. I wish I had served. For me, it's just, and I said earlier in the show, I get anxious. And the idea of my kids being overseas, my boys, I just, I don't personally think I could relax. But having said that, I don't in any way mean to disparage it. I think service in the agency of something bigger than yourself is hugely important. I think a lot of it is not only providing opportunities to people to serve and giving them the accoutrements or rewarding that service, but I think a lot of it is changing the zeitgeist

in our society where since the 80s, I think Reagan did a lot of damage when he started diminishing government and its employees. And my sense is while we still respect the military, we've largely decided or stereotyped that anyone that goes to work for a government agency, even if it's the Peace Corps, I guess the Peace Corps is a pretty good brand,

isn't a baller, isn't really killing it. And I wonder how we encourage, create incentives both economically and psychologically in terms of the status those folks play in society to enact public service. But I think that this notion of a, I called it a Corona Corps, but a V Corps, where we take medical professionals and individuals who've been fully vaccinated and coordinate their invasion, if you will, of countries who need help and are in a desperate situation. I think it's an

enormous opportunity, but thank you for the question. Public service to me is a big answer. And also I'm a little self-conscious saying that because I haven't engaged really in public service. I give money away and it makes me feel good. It makes me feel important. But in terms of being generous with my own time and my own sacrifice and putting my own career off, I really didn't, I didn't serve. And it's something I regret. Anyways, anyways, I think it's a wonderful thing. I think we should, there's a GI Bill

for people who serve a lot of, one of the most wonderful scholarships at NYU Stern is, I think it was the Fertitta Brothers, the founders of UFC, the Ultimate Fighting Championship created a scholarship for veterans. And they're generally just super impressive people. And one thing you can do, and I try to do, is I try to give a second or a third look to anyone's CV or LinkedIn profile when they send me an inquiry for a job when they have served in uniform. Anyways, thanks for the

question. That's all for the episode. Again, if you'd like to submit one, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Our producers are Caroline Shagrin and Drew Burrows. Claire Miller is our assistant producer. If you like what you heard, please follow, download, and subscribe. Thank you for listening to The Prof G Show from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Thursday. What software do you use at work? The answer to that question is probably more complicated than you want it to be. The average U.S. company deploys more than 100 apps, and ideas about the work we do can be radically changed by the tools we use to do it. So what is enterprise software anyway? What is productivity software? How will AI affect both? And how are these tools changing the way we use our computers to make stuff,

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