The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - Raging Moderates - The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov dive into the Election Day buzz and what to watch as the results start rolling in. They'll break down the final campaign twists, the surprising Ann Selzer Iowa poll, weigh in on which battleground states might tip the scales, and explore potential legal battles that could unfold. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Go to constantcontact.ca and start your free trial today. Go to constantcontact.ca for your free trial. Constantcontact.ca. Support for the show comes from Indeed. you need to hire you may need indeed indeed is a matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors according to indeed data in a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast listeners of this show can get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash podcast. Just go to indeed.com slash podcast right

now and say you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Support for the show comes from Alex Partners. In business, disruption brings not only challenges, but opportunities. At pivotal moments of change, Alex Partners is the consulting firm chief executives can rely on.

With clarity, direction, and above all, implementation, Alex Partners can be a steady hand for your business when decisive leadership is vital. You can discover insights and learn how to convert digital disruption In the face of disruption, businesses trust Alex partners to get straight to the point and deliver results when it really matters. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlev. How are you, Jess?

I'm really good. How are you? I don't believe you. And to... Oh, it's true. My algorithm doesn't hate me anymore. How are you, Jess? I'm really good. How are you? I don't believe you. And two- No, it's true. My algorithm doesn't hate me anymore.

I'm like coconut-pilled again. I'm having the best time. I don't know if Elon just wants to spare me or what, but no, it's genuine. So I can't tell if this election that I'm now older and wiser in this election really is that consequential. And there's no reason to be stressed, or I'm just older and stressed over anything. And I found the only thing that helps is I listen to 80s music

that plays over like Peanuts cartoons. Okay. That really calms me down, especially the Cure and all the Peanuts characters dancing. That brings me a moment of calm. Also, the traveling Wilburys, strangely enough, their music seems to calm me. Okay. In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing what the campaign trail looked like during the final week, what to watch out for on election night. And of course,

we'll wrap up with our final predictions. The thing that has absolutely blown my mind with our final predictions. The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa. Yeah. And actually, I'm gonna let you take this because you're the pollster and you're so much better at this than me, but explain for the listeners why that is significant

and what it is. Well, I wouldn't say that I'm better at it than you. And I'm interested in your thoughts because I feel like I spend too much time cross tab diving or whatever it's called. But Jayanne Selzer, who is the pollster there in Iowa is widely considered one of the top pollsters in the country, certainly the top one in Iowa and probably the top one in the country for most people. And I think there is going to be, depending on the outcome, Tuesday night,

there is going to be another reckoning with the polling industry that seems to have been, quote unquote, hurting all of these polls. Like no one wants to be an outlier in any way. So they're just telling us in like 50 different languages, this thing is really tight. This thing is tied. Maybe it's one point advantageous way, one point the other way. And Ann Selzer comes out with her final Iowa poll that has Kamala Harris up three. In Iowa. In Iowa. So Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by eight points. So this is a significant swing.

And I think he was up like 18 on Biden before Biden left the race, which is not that surprising because a lot of people felt like Biden should have left the race. So maybe then you take it down to an actuality, he would be like up eight to 10, something that you would feel is more normal. But this is a complete earthquake in the polling conversation. A lot of people want to dismiss it, but most of the pollsters and commentators who know what they're talking about are looking at this as a harbinger of a trend.

So even if Donald Trump wins by five points, let's say she's eight points off on this, that's still a really shitty result for Donald Trump and what he needs in all of this. And it would be indicative of the fact that Harris should be winning Wisconsin and Michigan and probably Pennsylvania. And the big underlying story in the poll was the gender gap, which we've been talking about a lot. Harris up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with

no party who are quote unquote, independence. But the thing that was blowing everyone's mind is the granny gap. So Harris is up two to one with seniors, with female seniors, and she did a ton of interviews over the weekend. She was on with Tim Miller on the Bullwork podcast and I would really recommend everyone listen to it if you're interested in getting to know her a little bit better and hearing a deeper dive into the methodology. But she was talking about how Iowa's abortion ban came into effect. So it was litigated through the courts and it actually was implemented over the summer.

So this is fresh in people's minds. She said these older women are not only looking at a world where their daughters and their granddaughters are less free than they were, which frankly pisses anyone off, right? No matter what the subject is, you know, abortion, a healthcare issue or otherwise. But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion, typically pro-life people, and what people think of as health care. And now that we live in a world where you can have a miscarriage and be denied care for that, people are saying, like, how dare you lump this in with abortion? And Iowa has this very restrictive

ban that came into effect just a few months ago. And there are other factors that could be playing into this. Like tariffs have hurt farmers really hard. It started under Trump and frankly did continue under Biden, the soybean farmers in particular. And one kind of wild card in this that I was wondering if you thought had any impact is Tim Walz. Cause you would think that Tim Walz would be someone that was very resonant with an Iowa voting base.

And if they thought maybe Kamala was a San Francisco lefty, that Walls would have felt like a moderating factor in all of this. But net, net, my mind is blown. And what was really interesting for those who want to dismiss it, and I brought it up yesterday, I was on Fox a couple of times on Sunday. We did normal programming in the lead up to the election. There was a poll out that Trump is only up five in Kansas, only up three in Ohio. And in Nebraska's second congressional district,

you know how there's one vote in Nebraska that is separate, Kamala's up 12, and I believe Biden only won it by seven or eight. So that speaks to a regional shift versus just Anne Selzer is out over her skis. What do you think about all of the things that I said? So first off, I think there's more than a kernel, a bushel of truth in everything you believe in that I believe.

The issue is we are absolutely cherry picking data that makes us feel better about ourselves or better about our views. That's fine, it's our show. That's right, it's confirmation bias gone crazy. So it wasn't the Iowa poll, it was that this woman Ann Selzer, who is from the heartland,

she doesn't live in LA or New York and has this annoying habit of being remarkably correct with her polls, arguably the best polls through the nation. And she caught Obama's rise and Trump's rise. Yeah. And doesn't appear to have a bias, appears to be doing what she's supposed to be doing. And for Harris to be up three or four in a... That would be like if all of a sudden a poll came out in Florida and showed Harris up

by almost outside the margin of error. And if this in any way is a harbinger of what's going on, it's just exceptionally good news. And then I look at Holly Market. Yeah. I was going to, and I'm still trying to, I'm thinking about doing it today, but I wanna make Wednesday morning

either really good or really bad for me. So I am gonna wager a significant amount of money for me on Harris. One, because I do think she's gonna win, but two, supposedly, I know a lot of media is looking at this thing, and I like the idea of giving her a little bit of a bump. And also, I think I told you this,

she is on a risk adjusted basis, just a great bet right now. Cause if you assume it's a coin flip, right now the odds are 39.6% likelihood that she wins. Meaning to get a million dollars back, you have to bet $396,000. Now, if I'd had bigger balls last week, and I'd done this last week when I said I was gonna do it, I would have only needed to wager $333,000

and I would have got three to one, I would have got a million bucks back. Now, her odds have dramatically increased on Polymarker, which I think has an underlying bias because the people who are likely gonna go on an online gambling site are younger and more male, i.e. more Trump. But the fact that even these sites

are seeing momentum with her, Iowa is big. And the thing that we talked about, Tony Hinchcliffe, the thing you mentioned, I heard that we have 300,000 people in swing states doing what I love the term used, souls to polls, helping people get to the ballot box and that they have somewhere between 30 and 50,000. So we're running somewhere between six and 10 to one in terms of actual ground game in these swing states. And then, and I mentioned this last time, my friend Whitney Tilson says all of his friends on the ground are saying that the Latino vote is more energized. The thing you haven't mentioned that I think is going to play a role is in not one,

not even two, but three of the most recent Trump appearances. It feels as if in the last three months he has aged 10 years. The last one I saw of him, he had that. When I saw, remember when Joe Biden popped up to do the stupid garbage comment? First off, I'm like, oh wait, I forgot Joe's still here. And it was if he was sending a video to his grandkids

as he was going into hospice, I'm like, Jesus Christ, this guy's dying. We made the right decision. Oh, unfortunately we made it six months too late in my view, but anyways, or maybe six months too late. But Trump, in that last rally, he looked ailed. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice.

Maybe he's just exhausted. I don't know. It doesn't matter, but he has always presented himself as much more robust. Fairly, he comes across as more robust as Biden. But the last few times I've seen him speak, America has basically said, we'll take obnoxious, we'll take offensive, we'll take whatever it is.

Someone whose policies we won't agree with on the Biden side, what we will not tolerate is old and weak. That's it. That's what kicked Biden out of the race, came across is old and weak. That's it. That's what kicked Biden out of the race, came across as old and weak. It feels like the momentum huge through the debate and the momentum flipped back to Trump dramatically

over the ensuing three weeks. And I would argue in the last 96 hours, maybe the last five days, it feels like the momentum has swung back substantially towards Harris. And I can't tell if the only people I know knocking on doors are Harris people, reporting back positive news that I wanna hear.

But, and that my algorithm is just serving me the shit I wanna see. I went on diary of a CEO with Stephen Bartlett, who's the biggest podcaster in the UK and just this incredibly impressive young man to talk about the election. And the comments, it was just 10 to one people railing against me.

You know, the same comments they give to us, these people are not moderates, da da da. The last week has been all Kamala. Also, even did you see the SNL sketch? Yeah, I thought she was so charming and funny. And kudos to them, kudos to the writers who figured, I mean, these people naturally aren't that funny themselves. Some of them are, I thought actually Obama

had decent instincts around humor, but the writers, I get, you get the sense, spoiler alert, that SNL writers are probably pretty regressive and that they sat down and they said, all right, this shit is serious. We have got to make our likable, intelligent, and it's got to be funny yet poignant. And they just nailed it. I mean, they just nailed it.

She came across as likable, funny, poking fun at herself, but not enough while depositioning Trump and keep Kamala and Kerry Onola. I mean, it just. Give me your Pamela. Oh my gosh. That was, it was, it was wonderful. I keep hearing about the ground game. Every time I see him, I think, wow, he looks older and older and older.

Yeah. I think the SNL moment was definitely worth the FCC violation. So NBC had to give Trump, I think like a minute and a half commercial during a car race yesterday or something like that. I don't think they care. OK, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Support for Prop G comes from Wondery and their new podcast, The Best Idea Yet.

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and more, making every moment count. Over 100,000 brands trust Klaviyo's unified data and marketing platform to build smarter digital relationships with their customers during Black Friday, Cyber Monday and beyond. Make every moment count with Klaviyo. Learn more at klaviyo.com slash bfcm. Welcome back. We of course had a great guest because I believe you know them or are friends with them.

We had Charlemagne the God on. Let's hear a quick clip from that appearance with Charlemagne the God on. Let's hear a quick clip from that appearance with Charlamagne the God. Like you know how many people I run into every day who literally have not heard 95% of the crazy rhetoric that has come out of Trump's mouth or come out of people in his camp's mouth. And so it's like, you should keep putting that in people's face to let folks know what he's saying,

what he's planning to do. And you should keep drilling home your message, your plan for the economy, like, you know, especially her, because she's only been running for a hundred days. So to find the rest of that interview, type in Raging Moderates, wherever you get your podcasts, and hit follow.

We have more election coverage coming out, so please subscribe so you don't miss an episode. All right, enough of the mid-pod ad, Jess. Let's get on with the show. So both campaigns have been crisscrossing across battleground states. We had Harris wrapping up her message on the ellipse and appearing on SNL.

Biden making a gaffe that Republicans jumped all over. Trump dressing up on Halloween as a garbage truck driver and RFK Jr. declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw again is yet another unforced error. What other moments are there? a garbage truck driver and RFK Jr. declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw again is yet another unforced error. What other moments are, are there any other moments than these that stand out to you?

And do any of these moments, do you think make a difference? I mean, those were the big ones, obviously, if you don't want to get into the minutiae of the specific things that he said at a rally, you know, the Yana Santoshakumbo lines. I do think that the prominent role of RFK in health and safety is something that low key matters a lot to people. And I think that because they are the island of the misfit

toys, which I know is how you describe your business as well. My staff, not my business, my staff. Your staff. Yeah. Um, well, I don't not my business, my staff. Your staff. Yeah. Well, I don't see them that way by the way. They seem- Oh, you don't know them. You don't know them. It's like the functional family.

The functional families, you know, are the dysfunctional ones. I always say in our reviews that, this person isn't doing this well. And I'm like, if they could do this well, they'd be working at Google, not for you, here at this Joy Bagadonis podcast. Anyways, love my staff, love my staff.

Go ahead. So because you have this wild cast of characters and you can't get a lot of the people that you would want to be out there, you end up with a showcase that has Dana White, Hulk Hogan, RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, et cetera. And I think for a certain piece of the base, that's really resonant.

But RFK Jr. for a normal person is really like anathema. You know, because he's not even representing a departure from the Democratic Party that I think is resonant with a lot of people. The reasons that it happened, for instance, because he holds these kinds of beliefs about health because of what a terrible person he has been morally himself in terms of what he put his wife, former wife through and ended up resulting in her suicide. And just the weird stuff, right?

Like having a whale head strapped to the top of his station wagon and dead bear cubs in central park, et cetera. And I think that, you know, Trump this time around can't say I'll be surrounded by great people because 40 out of 44 cabinet secretaries have said that they're not for Trump anymore. So then you think, okay, well, maybe there's this other layer of like not the worst people in the world, but kind of okay people that might go

into the administration. And listen, people love a fancy title. I'm sure he will be able to get some good people from the business community to go work for him. People who have served the country and feel that this is their patriotic duty. But,K Jr.'s views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream. I mean, did you see the latest one that he wants to remove fluoride from the water? Drinking water, so it causes cancer, yeah.

Yeah. Not only does it, does water turn frogs trans or something like that Now we want to get fluoride out of our water and Tim Scott was being interviewed the senator from South Carolina And he was asked about this and he tried to do the usual dance of like, oh, you know I don't know I don't know what you're talking about blah blah blah and it turns out that he co-sponsored a bill To make sure that there was fluoride in water in underserved communities in 2018. Because guess what? Fluoride is really important. You know, I take a two and a half year old to the dentist, they're, they start talking to you about fluoride at one, right? And I think that it will really

hurt Trump's candidacy to have that be someone that we can identify as a harbinger of quote unquote professionalism that he would have in there and then to add to it that he would also be in charge of women's health, which is frightening to have someone who's so, first of all, disrespectful towards women anyway, but this weird pro-life Democrat sometimes, he used to be pro-choice, I guess he says that he's pro-life now, but someone who has never taken any interest in this issue whatsoever, or moderated the party on it, since he switched over.

I thought that was another tactical error. I thought they should, you should have said, we're gonna put him on something around the environment. In a corner. Well, he's actually- Yeah, actually, yes. He believes in climate change. He has some good, yeah. He's good around the environment. It would corner. Well, he's actually- Yeah, actually, yes. He believes in climate change. He has some good, yeah. He's good around the environment.

It would soften his position. I forget, who was the guest when you and I were panelists on Bill Maher together, which is how we met, how we fell, how I fell in love with Jess Tarlaw. What, who was our guest? Who was the third person or the person? It was Cuomo and Melissa De Rosa.

Oh, and then you bailed, right? For the interview. It was one Mar, it's still only two people. It was like post-COVID, so it was only us on the panel. Yeah, but it's still only two. That was easily like the most impossible. I had to sit around and talk about post-COVID with the guy who, with Cuomo,

as he started his apology tour. That was the most uncomfortable TV I think I've ever, and you got to bail because whatever Fox doesn't want it on CNN. Anyway. It's Melissa DeRosa who worked for Cuomo as the other person. Yeah, who worked for him.

I didn't understand the whole thing. They were promoting a book. It was a thing. Yeah, and I said, oh, anyways, but I met RFK Jr. backstage. He's very handsome. he's very charming, he's very likable. And he started texting, can I come on your pod?

And I thought, well, yeah, sure, why not? And I checked with the team and the team was a resounding no. We're not gonna platform this guy. And I think they made that, my island here is the wisdom of crowds. It's always good for me to check in because occasionally or actually quite frequently

they get it right and I get it wrong. And he seems like he's just gotten crazier. And the interesting thing, the reason I bring it up is that he was the guest. He did the long form interview upfront. And I thought Bill Maher tried to be as kind as possible but asked hard questions and tore him limb from limb. Just made him look like an idiot in my opinion.

Just pointed out inconsistencies left and right. And then RFK Jr., you know, he's supposed to come out for the conversation afterwards. He didn't come out. He refused to come out. Really? Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah, he didn't come out.

He was supposed to come out and I was looking- So he's a baby on top of it. Well, his comms person, and what's interesting is just a couple of days ago, top of it. Well, his comms person, and what's interesting is just a couple of days ago, I got a text message from his comms person saying, we need to speak. And I'm like, I immediately texted back, what's up? And I haven't heard back from him, but I can't imagine.

I have no idea what they want from me. Anyways, this is again, another absolutely unforced. Unforced error. Unforced error. So they're pivoting through the swing states here. Do you think there's anything, if you're advising them, I mean, this is pretty much it. This is go time, right?

Yeah, I mean, it's election day. If you were advising either the candidates anything they should do tomorrow to put a cherry on the top or is it kind of like the ball is out of their hands? I mean, I think for Trump, he is facing, as you said, a rally scene that is not tip top, you know, it's emptier. People are less engaged and he, he is descending a bit. And if he can muster a few lines of unity or even re-centering

around his economic message. I mean, that has been the big problem here. She has totally matched him in terms of who's best to handle the economy because he won't talk about anything normal, right? He's advertising on anti-trans issues and he's giving no specifics on his economic plan anyway when he does talk about it. So I would say to him, if you could do all of your rallies and really be talking about the economy, that would be best for you. For Kamala, you know, she can only do with what has been working for her staying on message. And I did love that line that she had to Charlemagne when she did the town hall with him, where he said, you know,

there are people who say you're all relentlessly on message, you stick to your script, you can't weave it all or whatever. And she said, I say you're welcomelessly on message, you stick to your script, you can't weave it all or whatever and she said, I say you're welcome. That's my response to you. You want somebody that understands why they're there, they're there to help the American people, these are the ways that I'm gonna do it. So I wanted her to stick to that message,

but I do love when she, first of all, genuinely asks people for their vote. I have found it to be one of her more compelling sides where she says I'm taking nothing for granted and I'm here asking for your vote and I want more as many of those human moments as possible in the last few hours of all of this where she says I know that we are building a coalition of people who are strange bedfellows. You know that we have these Republicans like you have Liz Cheney and AOC backing the same ticket.

That's rare. And that she will be a president for all Americans and that her cabinet will reflect that and that she is not too prideful to change the way that she thinks about things and to take advice from people that she wouldn't typically do so. And I want to hear that kind of stuff. Because I think people are looking for the reassurance that if they've gone out on a limb, like if you are a Republican in Iowa that is going to end up with a Kamala Harris presidency. You have gone out on a limb to do that. And she really needs to continue talking about how she's going to meet them in the middle

and respects what they've done. Before we break, just a quick review of the most recent New York Times Santa College poll. In Nevada, the poll, the New York Times Santa poll has Harris up by three. In North Carolina, Harris up by two. Wisconsin, Harris up by two. Georgia, Harris up by one.

Pennsylvania tied. Michigan tied. Arizona, Trump up by four. The way I read this, and maybe I don't have the math correctly, but then doesn't it all come down to Pennsylvania? I guess if, yeah, I think it always, but she has more. I mean, what they're emphasizing is she has more paths than he does.

Like the sunbelt is still in play for her and he needs Pennsylvania, but it has to go through the Georgia, North Carolina path. And he's having to spend way more time in North Carolina than he would have hoped. My takeaway from the New York Times, Sienna poll, what I was excited to see back to normal levels of democratic support with black voters and Latino voters and the gender gap there. I think it was the gender gap they were saying was the least in Pennsylvania, which surprised me. We'll see how it all bears out, but, you know, I'm still concerned about minority support

for the Democratic candidate. And one other thing that popped up during the week, I don't know if you caught this, Gallup released a survey around enthusiasm, and Democrats are right now more enthusiastic than they were in 2008 with Obama, and 10 points more enthusiastic than Republicans. Have you been feeling that I it honestly surprised me

It's so hard because I live in London and I'm in a bit of a bubble around my social media algorithm and the people I Talk to are so I shouldn't say everyone. I have a lot of friends in LA A lot of my Jewish friends are very I don't want to say pro Trump, but squarely Trump and There's just no getting around it though. I'm getting emails with like, check out this data. Everyone's sort of, people are feeling almost a little bit the way I would describe it as bereft about a week and a half, two weeks ago, and people are starting to get their mojo back. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

back. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Payment management software isn't something your customers think about that often. They see your product, they want to buy it, and then they buy it. That's about as complex as it gets. But under the hood of that process, there are a lot of really complicated things happening that have to go right in order for that sale to go through. Stripe handles the complexity of financial infrastructure, offering a seamless experience for business owners and their customers.

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music but the music itself. All that all this month on the Vergecast wherever you find podcasts. Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Payment management software isn't something your customers think about that often. They see your product, they want to buy it, and then they buy it. That's about as complex as it gets. But under the hood of that process, there are a lot of really complicated things happening that have to go right in order for that sale to go through. Stripe handles the complexity of financial infrastructure, offering a seamless experience for business owners and their customers. For example, Stripe can make sure that your customers see their currency and preferred payment method when they shop. So checking out never feels like a chore.

Stripe is a payment and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like Uber, BMW, and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions, and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to power businesses of all sizes, like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription-based charges,

invoicing, and all recurring revenue management needs. Learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make progress at stripe.com. That's stripe.com to learn more. Stripe, make progress. Welcome back. Let's switch gears to the battleground states, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina might get called fairly quickly, but we could be waiting for a while for

Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, especially if it's a close race. Justice gets a little bit to predictions. Do you think there's any potential surprises here? Obviously, Iowa would be a big effing surprise. Is there any, my gut is one way or the other, we're gonna have two or three states pop up on the screen with Steve Kornacki or Bill Hemmer. Who by the way is a lovely guy?

I met him in the Hamptons. He's a very nice man, very handsome too. His big Sag Harbor guy. Very, very handsome. Very handsome, yeah. I mean, I hope HR is not listening. I didn't mean it that way, but he's handsome. You know what, it's okay if you objectify. What I've learned, let me give you a little tip.

As someone who has an HR nightmare, it's okay to objectify people as long as you objectify men. Then it's okay. Anyways. Yeah, I've heard that. Bill Hemmer is a tall drink of lemonade. So what states do you think might be surprises here one way or the other? Obviously there's Iowa, that would be a shocker.

Any surprise, any states that are traditionally, or Harris thinks she has in the bag that could potentially pop up Trump? I don't think so. Obviously if North Carolina, Georgia are going in Harris's direction, then we know it's a big night in her favor.

Trump really needs to hold those. What I'm still curious about is that inefficient vote. If he's running up the tally in New York and Florida. I mean, we actually haven't talked about Florida a lot. If Harris is performing well in Florida, that will also be a harbinger of something to come. And obviously they have a huge Latino and Puerto Rican specifically population there.

But if Trump is banking votes in New York, Florida, California, these places he's been going, I mean, he was in New Mexico. All of this is so bizarre if you're actually being strategic about it. And I get it, it's fun he was in New Mexico. All of this is so bizarre if you're actually being strategic about it, and I get it, it's fun to win the popular vote, Republicans should try it sometime. I think they've only done it once in the last eight

elections, but that will be, it'll A, be interesting if it ends up that Republicans somehow win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College, but it will be a very poor reflection on the electoral strategy that Susie Wiles, who's supposedly very, very good at her job, has taken with all of this. And I get that he's hard to control and he wants a rally at MSG and he wants to go to Coachella. But that's something that I'll be looking for and also his effect down ballot, because New York should decide control of

the House. And we talked about those close congressional races last week on the podcast. Trump is not a lift for most of these people that are in these tight races. So inefficient vote is what is fascinating me currently. One thing that's clear, this race is expected to be the most contested in history. Trump is already toying with the public's trust in the results. Both campaigns have teams of lawyers prepped and ready to go. Lawsuits have been filed for weeks now, and we could be seeing legal fights over results for months if the margins are thin.

There are even zombie lawsuits, cases that Trump could bring back if there's a chance they might shift the vote. What do you make of all these legal challenges, Jess? Have you spoken to many of these lawyers? zombie lawsuits, cases that Trump could bring back if there's a chance they might shift the vote. What do you make of all these legal challenges, Jess? Have you spoken to many of these lawyers? How do you see them unfolding? Does one side have an edge over the other? Jess Sweeney Well, the Democrats have the edge and the Republicans even openly talk about that. Mark Elias, who is our top elections lawyer, and you can see him, he goes on MSNBC pretty regularly, is a big target. And the Republicans just talk about him.

They're like, we didn't have a Mark Elias in 2020. And I don't think they have one guy, but they certainly have a better operation this time around. But they're throwing everything they can at the wall and seeing what sticks. I mean, part of the problem is the way that what they are perceiving or what they are frankly lying about as being unfair election practices are getting amplified on social media and either if they are getting community noted or not, it's not making a difference

to people and they're running with this argument. Like there was this whole thing about that. A bunch of ballots were just getting dropped off by this random person outside the door. I think it was an Allegheny County in Pennsylvania. And it turns out that it was a postmaster that was doing his job. Or they went after Bucks County because they were saying it was election interference, that there were long lines. No baby. Sometimes there's just long lines. Right. Like a lot of people showed up to vote and they were saying it was election interference that there were long lines. No, baby sometimes there's just long lines, right like a lot of people showed up to vote and they were understaffed and

In Georgia, they had to come into the courtroom to defend this there were more Boxes for dropping off mail ballots. You can mail your ballot in or you could put it in a drop box Which a lot of people like to do like my sister in California that's how they vote that they go and drop off their mail ballot in person. And there were, I think, four new drop boxes that were added. And the Republicans were saying that it was illegal, and they were brought in front of the judge. I think it was like 8 a.m. on Saturday morning, and the judge was like, what are you talking about?

Like everything has, and I'm not saying that it's impossible that there's some minor fraud somewhere, but the theme is always that Republicans want less people to be able to vote. And they hide behind this facade of election integrity. But we know that election integrity in 2020 looked like calling up Brad Raffensperger and threatening him, you know, trying to stop the count

in Arizona and continue the count in Pennsylvania. And it's really so disheartening. And I've been reading a lot of articles about former Trumpers and what turned them off. And an interesting one actually, or part of it, has been that he went too left on abortion, which I never expected to see. I would think, you know, getting rid of Roe v. Wade

would have been this huge miracle, but they feel that he's too left on it. But a lot of it is about this disrespect for the electoral process and not being able to take a W. It's more than disrespect for the electoral process. It's a lack of respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country. A country is a series of structures, protocols,

legal entities that create an infrastructure that can impose taxes, uphold laws, prosecute, defend those laws, and set up an operating system, in this instance, 50 different operating systems, 50 different protocols, to try and create a diversity around the process to maintain election integrity such that no one system can be hacked. And when Governor DeSantis spends $3 million

for quote unquote election integrity, that is so cynical. There's no reason that Florida needs to spend $3 million on what are, it's like 60 contested votes. And I have a close friend who I went to college with, who I would describe as a reasonable, intelligent guy, and his entire Instagram reels the last few days has been what to do if you're worried

about your vote being counted. And he's a pretty hardcore Trumper. And I called him and I said, you realize you're inciting violence? And he goes, well, what do you mean by that? And I said, look, there's absolutely no evidence that there's anything more than 0.0001% of election fraud. Both Republicans and Democratic commissioners

have done a great job of having fidelity for the Constitution and their responsibility. There are few processes that involve humans that have had the same integrity as our elections. And basically the last time we had kind of a split decision, a Republican or a conservative Supreme Court justice said, okay, Bush is the president. And then in what has become a very unusual move, Vice President Gore conceded the election, recognizing he didn't want to have violence, He didn't want to have a revolution.

And all of this, we don't trust the CDC. We don't trust the American Pediatric Association. We don't trust the secret service when our guy gets shot out. We don't trust any of these institutions. The Fed, Jesus Christ, the Fed has put on a fucking master class here. But this notion that you can't trust institutions, you need to trust your emotions and your feelings and what you get

on a social media feed that is purposely there to take you further to the left, further to the right, and enrage you. So it's more than just a lack of trust in elections, but this, I mean, you just see it's just so naked. If we win, it's democracy at work. And if we lose, it's election fraud and our institutions. And you can already see on these ridiculous social media feeds, somehow laying the groundwork for cases, you know, someone burned a ballot box. Okay, I believe that.

What on earth does that have to do with a conspiracy around election fraud? Someone lit a ballot box on fire. Okay. You win. Is there any evidence that that ballot box had more votes for Harris than for Trump? It's just, it's so, I mean, it's, it's what the

head of propaganda for the Kremlin said back in the days of Gorbachevremlin said back in the days of Gorbachev that this is how we win. We just flood the zone with misinformation. We make no one trust institutions, which is Latin for no one trusts America anymore. And we just overwhelm them with information left and right and just confuse this shit out of them and they no longer believe in their government or in their country, but it is this lack of respect for our institutions,

especially, I think it went crazy in COVID. I think people were kind of mentally unwell and were so upset about what was going on, didn't know what to trust and said, oh, we can't trust the CDC. And when the, when the American pediatric association says there is no correlation between these vaccines that we can see and myocardia and teenage boys or enlarged hearts. No one wants to believe them because they know somebody whose kid had an arrhythmia. Okay, fine. But that doesn't mean there's a there there. So I find all of this very dangerous. It's just another example of there really is a double standard here. You can tell it's going to be, I mean, Carrie Lake sort of embodies this, right? That in Arizona voters, I just can't get over the fact that they decided to put her up.

That is going to be my ointment. That is if things go wrong for us tomorrow, I'm just going to watch the numbers come in over and over on the Gallegos Lake Senate contest. Cause my understanding is things are probably gonna go. Yeah. Representative Gallegos way. Kamala may not win Arizona. Ruben Gallego is going to win. Swit ticket, right?

Yeah, that's probably gonna be. I mean, people, yeah, people are doing it. But hopefully she can pull it out. Arizona looks tough though for Kamala right now. And what do you think, do you think there's any chance that the Supreme Court, if something ends up in the Supreme Court, that they'll impact the election? I mean, I don't want to say no,

because the Supreme Court has been quite activist and activist in Trump's direction. Pretty sure that all of them don't want to have anything to do with this and that they'll try to keep it in lower courts as much as possible. But again, it has to be very normal polling errors could lead to huge wins on either side of this. And I continue, if I was a praying gal, I would pray for a decisive win, most of all. And Trump actually this weekend for the first time acknowledged that he could lose. Like he said

something like, yeah, I got, you know, we could lose. We shouldn't lose, you know, but it could happen. And there was a report, I think, in Axios that Suzy Wiles had put out a memo to the campaign that said, you know, we're optimistic, but no matter what happens, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And that's a bit of a different tone from the usual Trump triumphalism. And I'm sure they still think that they're gonna win. And again, it may happen,

but even having a little glimpse into the fact that there is some understanding that it might not be a Trump victory is a tiny bit heartening for me at this moment. Okay, Jess, this is, this is it. It's go time, your prediction and any nuance or any wrinkle around your prediction. This is it, it's go time, your prediction and any nuance or any wrinkle around your prediction. Nauseously optimistic that Kamala wins. Um, one thing that I had been actually feeling a little bit better about is

there was some good polling for our, our friend, John Tester in Montana. And that story about Ryan Shihi, his, who lied about getting shot in Afghanistan, who did the shooting, it was in a parking lot at a national park, that that story has actually been breaking through to people. And I think that there's a lot of folks out there, especially in the age of Trump, that are looking for good people to put in office, that they feel that there's some baseline level of okay that they're going to be if you have ethical and morally sound folks in office.

And John Tester is that. And so I'm a little bit more hopeful about that, still feel that the Republicans are gonna control the Senate. But was excited to see that. And I think the Democrats are going to take the House back. What about you? Yeah, I agree with you, both the Senate and the House. The markets are predicting that regardless of who wins, it doesn't matter that it'll be a split government and that the populace and the media are overestimating the impact one

way or the other. And essentially that's what the market is saying, is that no one individual is going to have that much power to get much done over the other because it'll be a split government. My prediction is it's going to be actually a decisive win for Harris. All of the, all of the things I've seen breaking our way. This, the, the poll from seltzer in Iowa absolutely blew my mind. All of these self-inflicted wounds. You mentioned the story about tester. It just feels like all the atmospherics indicate whether it's on the ground,

reporting back from canvassing, whether it's the amount of money that 10 to 1 people on the ground trying to turn out the vote. And again, I just might be in a bubble where I not only have a social media algorithm, but I have a friend algorithm and people are only sending me things that are going to make me feel better. But I was pretty honest, I think with myself in the two weeks leading up to the last four days, seven days ago I was pretty convinced that the edge was distinctly Trump. And then these videos of him which have been going around showing that he's just old, even little stupid things like him trying to open a door and having a tough time. The garbage truck door?

Yeah, the garbage truck door. I feel like he's aged 10 years in the last three weeks. Even this is this polymarketing, I'm becoming addicted, I'm like a's aged 10 years in the last three weeks. Even this is this poly market thing, I'm becoming addicted, I'm like a kid trading crypto. In just the time we've been on this pod, Jess, the likelihood according to poly market that Harris will win the presidency has gone from a low of 38.6% to a high of 43.2 and now it's back to 42.3.

I mean, the market is just so volatile around this stuff. You can just feel the tension, but every piece of media I'm seeing points to more people turning out. And then I think this race will be remembered for a couple of things. One, if Harris loses, I think Biden is gonna have

some explaining to do, so to speak. I think people are just gonna be furious at the Democratic Party and Biden and the people around him for not getting him to drop out sooner. That how on earth did we not run away with this? And I do think that if he loses, the things that they're gonna remember here is that this was the podcast.

Election. I think her going on, call her daddy and him going on Rogan were more kind of seminal in terms of identifying this new medium. And also I think this is, you know, I hate it when people say, Oh, this is the election of women or whatever, but having raised boys, I just see the way we had a Halloween party for my son. The party was supposed to be at 9 p.m. And the girls show up on time, they help clean up, their costumes were perfect.

They're just more organized. And I think you're just gonna see, I think women have a big issue here, and they're organized. I just think women are gonna show up because especially if you look at the demographics have a big issue here and they're organized. I just think women are gonna show up because especially if you look at the demographics here, I think demographics are destiny.

There's 12 million fewer people on the voter rolls because they've died since 2016. There's 20 million new voters. And the 12 million that have died generally are older, whiter and more Republican. And the new voters, the 20 million new voters are generally younger, more non-white, and I believe more progressive.

And I think you're gonna see that women showed up here, and were just more organized across every age group, and that leans Harris. So I'm predicting, I believe this is going to be Harris and it's going to be, and it's going to be decisive. I love it. I agree with you about the women showing up and I do hope that a consequence of this though is not kind of brow beating men about the victory, but figuring out a better way forward to have a more balanced party where everyone feels included,

because young men have basically the same political beliefs as young women. That's right. They're just not being spoken to in a way that is resonant, and that's on us. I love that. That's where we're going to leave it. All right. That's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates. Our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo. Our technical director is Drew Burroughs. You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday.

That's right. Raging Moderates is on its own feed. What a thrill. Please follow us wherever you get your podcast or I'm sending an incredibly intelligent person who is almost six feet tall. And by the way, her husband's even bigger. Don't mess with the Tarlovs. Jess, stay safe. No, large people.

Enjoy your evening on Fox. Watch Cure videos or REM or Tom Petty if things get really scary, I promise it'll calm you down. Happy voting. Happy voting, where this will still be America. All right, Jess. Probably. Probably.

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