The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - SPACs, Stocks, and Being Indispensable ft. Andrew Ross Sorkin
Episode Date: March 11, 2021Andrew Ross Sorkin joins Scott to discuss the state of play on SPACs, the markets, and the tech stocks. Andrew also shares how the pandemic has impacted his family life and work. Follow Andrew on Twit...ter, @andrewrsorkin. (16:23) Scott opens with his thoughts on why states shouldn’t get a bailout, CDC guidelines, Netflix testing out short-form video clips (9:23), and Twitter testing out commerce on the platform (13:17). This Week’s Office Hours: whether Twitter should acquire Reddit (54:55), NFTs (57:16), and a litmus test for whether you should go get your MBA (61:26). Algebra of Happiness: A poem from a listener (65:48).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Episode 52, the atomic number of tellurium.
There are 52 weeks in a year.
Daylight savings is coming this weekend,
so I am going to have sex on Saturday night
for an hour and three minutes.
Go!
Um, Scott, I think you should try that again.
There are 52 weeks in a year.
No joke, when I was 52,
I decided I was going to spend a lot more time alone,
and my partner said, that's selfish,
and I said, no, it's not.
It's for everyone else's safety. Go, go, go.
Welcome to the 52nd episode of The Prov G Show. In today's episode, we speak with Andrew Osork
and a columnist for The New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box. We discuss with Andrew the market SPACs and our economic recovery,
or lack thereof. I'm a huge fan of Andrew Ostorkin. I think there are, well, there are a lot of people
I look up to and think I would like their life, I would like their professional life,
and Andrew's one of them. He's recognized a tremendous amount of success and relevance,
writing. He gets his book made into movies, unlike the dog. But anyways, I'm a little bit jealous.
He's also a very lovely guy. I've gotten to know him and his wife a little bit, and they're both
just impressive, nice, thoughtful, humble people. Anyways, enough of me puckering up for the
Canadian, Andrew Ossorkin. By the way, he claims he was born and raised in Manhattan. Don't believe it. Don't believe it. Okay. Okay.
What's happening? President Biden is expected to sign a roughly $2 trillion COVID relief package
into law this week after the House of Representatives voted on the bill for a second
time. The American Rescue Plan will be President Biden's first major piece of legislation. The
relief package includes aid such as $1,400 stimulus checks to certain income groups,
$130 billion for K-12 schools.
That's a little bit late, isn't it?
$123 billion for COVID-19-related policy and $360 billion to state and local governments
with $10 billion allocated for infrastructure projects.
Everyone has got their hand in the kitty on this one. $6 trillion
so far in stimulus, or as I like to call it, a hate crime against future generations. Yeah,
maybe $1 trillion if it got to where it was supposed to go. But in a study released by CNBC,
somewhere between 40% to 50% of young people who are already retail investors, so granted,
they already invest in the market, plan to put the majority of their stimulus into the market. 85% of people receiving stimulus claim they're not going to spend it, meaning the stimulus isn't getting to the right place. So again, continued loaves of bread and circuses for the poor such that we can pump most of it into the market where we get that sugar high, that heroin hit of increasing stock prices, 90% of which goes to the top 1%. Yay,
relief. That's not relief. It's further income inequality. This relief baggage is less bad than
the rest. They have lowered the income limits for which you could or are eligible for stimulus.
They are putting more of it towards what has probably been some of the most, what will be
some of the most everlasting or some
of the most evergreen damage, and that is schools being closed. So hopefully we'll get more schools
open. However, I think bailing out states is a bad idea. I think a lot of states are out over
their skis, and that is slowly but surely they've been weaponized by special interest groups or
their budgets have been weaponized by special interest groups. And the only way you can get
elected is to promise to increase budgets or not have difficult conversations with unions. And I think of
myself as a fairly pro-labor guy. I'm a member of a union, the UAW, as a matter of fact, that is
the union that you join at NYU Stern. But anyways, look for the union label right here.
Tattoo it on my ass just because I'm 56 and want to get a tattoo,
so why not? Or maybe I'll just get a nose ring. Anyway, it's time for states and local governments
to get their house in order. Specifically, it costs 11 times the amount to build a mile of
subway in Manhattan than it costs in France. And France isn't exactly known as a model of
economic efficiency. California has become ungovernable and the taxes are so high.
And what is happening?
There is a giant sucking sound coming out of California, New York to Texas and Florida.
Want to know who's all of a sudden going to find a hankering for Texas and Florida?
Find the 1,000 people sitting on top of the largest unrealized gains and they're going to decide that, hey, I have $130 billion unrealized gain. My name is Elon Musk. I've all of a sudden decided I'm
going to get a cowboy hat and move to Austin, or I'm going to break out the sunblock and move to
Miami. I don't think that's sustainable, and you're going to have to have some of these cities
and states reckon with what has become an out-of-control cost structure that results in
taxation for cities. And what you
end up with is California and New York that have essentially priced themselves out of the market,
where people are doing the math and are thinking, okay, I'm going to move to Florida and Texas,
who are quite frankly, just more fiscally responsible. Now there's a price there.
The schools in my great state of Florida, the public schools are not very strong.
And you do pay for some of it in
property taxes, but there's a reckoning here. I think we're headed towards what I call a value
accretion tax. What do I mean by that? What do I mean by that? This wealth tax that Senators
Sanders and Warren are proposing, I don't think that works. I think once you get your capital
beyond a certain... Once, in other words, you save that money, you're a wealthy person, you're not a
wealthy person, and you've been taxed and you have a certain amount of wealth,
I think of that as private property. And if you start Robin Hooding it, regardless of the
intentions, you violate one of the core pillars of the United States. And that is we have a lot
of respect for private property and the government can't come in and nationalize your private
property. And also, also they don't tend to work.
When I say they, wealth taxes. Why? Because wealthy people are the most mobile people in the world.
And if you institute a wealth tax in France and the wealthiest man in Europe, Bernard Arnault
moves his residence from Paris to Belgium. And then when we start instituting a wealth tax in
this nation, I think you're going to find that the billionaires in the U.S. are going to all of a
sudden get a hankering for London or Singapore or Tokyo because they spend most of
their lives on the road. Anyway, so I don't think it works. What we should have done, what we should
do, quite frankly, is just have a more equitable tax structure to begin with. And that is eliminate
capital gains tax deduction. Why on earth is the money you make from money taxed at a lower rate
than the money you make from sweat? Why? Because young people make their money with sweat and we want to transfer money and power
from young people to old people as we've always done.
Why is mortgage tax interest
or the interest on your mortgage tax deductible?
Why?
Because old people own homes.
Anyways, we just need a more equitable tax structure
and we need to begin thinking about
if you aggregate $150 billion in wealth in California, leveraging their infrastructure,
leveraging their great university system, specifically Cal State, the University of
California, leveraging their roads, leveraging their infrastructure and their culture that the
taxpayers have built up over a century, then you can't just take your $150 billion gain and peace
out and then go monetize it in a low-tax state. I think we're going to see some sort of value accretion or sort of mutual reciprocity amongst states coming our
way. And in other news, the CDC released its new guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals.
Fully vaccinated means it's been two weeks after your second dose in a two-dose series,
like the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or two weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as the
Johnson & Johnson one. The CDC says fully vaccinated people can gather indoors together
without masks on. They also do not need to isolate or get tested if they've been exposed to the virus
unless they develop symptoms. Just about 10% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated,
and President Biden expects there to be enough vaccines for every U.S. adult by the end
of May. It's also actually a really encouraging number, a substantial number of people over the
age of 65 have been vaccinated. So I think the CDC has lost a little bit of credibility, and that is,
I think they're trying to thread the needle, if you will, between ensuring that people don't get
lazy or lackadaisical or that we fall behind the curve of discipline, and as a result,
the curve explodes and we have more and more outbreaks. So you can understand the position they're in.
But the notion, kind of their recommendations or their advice on how we should live our lives,
in my opinion, has somewhat been disjointed from the reality of how most people are actually going
to behave. And so I think they need to get out ahead of the curve with announcements like this and not only acknowledge the best science, if you will, or what
the prudent course of action is, but the reality of how people are behaving. For example, I went
down to Miami last weekend and guess what? This is exciting news. There is no COVID in Miami.
At least you wouldn't know there's COVID in Miami. So the notion that they put out a release saying,
okay, you've been fully vaccinated twice. you can get together in small gatherings without masks.
Well, thanks for that, boss. I got to believe that most people like that are already doing
that. I think the more exciting thing is, okay, if you're over the age of 65 and you've been fully
vaccinated, maybe it's time you can see your grandkids again. Maybe you can start returning
to some sense of normalcy around your life. It just feels as if there has been a delta between CDC guidelines and how people are actually going to behave.
And I don't know how you thread the needle between those two things.
But I'm not sure when you see announcements that it's okay for fully vaccinated people to not wear masks and get together in small gatherings.
It's like, well, something tells me they've already been doing that.
Netflix has rolled out fast laughs, short video clips to highlight its comedy catalog.
Fast Laughs play similar to TikTok or Instagram Reels as the video clips play automatically and
users can share the clips on other platforms, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Snapchat,
and Twitter. Oh my gosh, Netflix, you fast follower, you little saucy minx. Netflix is taking cues from TikTok.
And what happens when a marketplace explodes in value?
It's blood in the water.
It attracts new entrants.
It attracts sharks.
Do you think that Apple would have brought back from the dead its Titan car project had
the automobile market not exploded $700 billion in value. Simply put,
if all of a sudden the automobile market had not attracted $700 billion in additional market
capitalization, i.e. Tesla, I'm not sure Apple would have brought back or dug up the corpse of
their car program. And TikTok is probably worth $200, $300, $400 billion, and the short-form video innovation, if you will.
And Netflix says, I don't know, we can do that.
We have a ton of access.
We have a recurring revenue relationship with hundreds of millions of people.
Maybe we should try this short form.
It's sort of interesting that Quibi got it so wrong, yet the format on top of an algorithm with original creators is probably going to be
embraced or has been embraced by hundreds of millions of people. And then Netflix is looking
into this notion of short video clips. And it just reminds me of just how brain dead Twitter has been.
All of this started, the original gangster here was Vine. Don't get me started. Back to Netflix.
Recent estimates suggest that the streaming giant's content budget could surpass $19 billion this year. That would be a 10% increase compared to the previous year. In addition,
in addition, Nielsen reported that Netflix accounted for 34% of U.S. streaming as of Q2 2020.
Wow. One in three minutes streaming with all those options and boom, boom, it's Netflix. Netflix,
gosh, what an incredible company, right? By the
way, Paramount Plus, this just shows why the film industrial complex, specifically movie theaters
and people wanting to grab their 100 million, 500 million, billion in the movie theater is
literally collapsing on itself. And that is Paramount Plus, which includes Lionel Messier,
SpongeBob SquarePants, Jean-Luc Picard, 72 bucks a year for all of that, six bucks
a month. Or I can go to Alamo Drafthouse, which is a superior film experience, get a Lazy Boy,
order a couple of Zacapas for the dog, and boom, that's 75 bucks. Well, which one is better,
a year of Lionel Messier or Starship Commander Jean-Luc Picard. True story. Every year at Halloween, I dress up as the
Starship Commander. Huge crowd pleaser. Huge crowd pleaser. Anyway, that shows you why Alamo has
recently declared bankruptcy. And that is the value you get from these streaming networks,
the innovation in your living room versus the value you get at movie theaters and the innovation, i.e. pretty much none in theaters, is just absolutely clock these guys in the face.
And we're seeing a dispersion of content. It is leapfrogging. It is frogging the traditional
channels of distribution that were supported such that the film industrial complex or the
healthcare industrial complex or the education industrial complex could grab their piece. Dispersion, who are the frogs? Coursera is planning to go public.
They're a frog. They're skipping. They're leaping over universities. 98.6, telemedicine. By the way,
I'm an investor in 98.6. They're leapfrogging hospitals and doctor's offices, remote anything, Zoom, Amazon, they're leapfrogging HQ, right?
They're going over every commercial real estate investment trust and saying, I know,
let's go straight to them. We're going to see a lot of frogs. We're going to see a lot
of dispersion and other interesting business development. Back to Twitter. Twitter is
testing out shoppable tweets and looking for ways to better support commerce on the platform.
TechCrunch reports, remember them, TechCrunch? So 90s, don't they feel 90s or nots or aughts,
whatever it is? I think of Lindsay Lohan and TechCrunch. Anyways, that the shoppable tweets
will include a shop button and integrate product details directly into the tweet,
including the product name, shop name, and product pricing. Facebook's supposed to have had
huge success with their shoppable Instagram, Instagram markets, whatever it's called. So I think this is overdue.
Do you get the sense? Do you get the sense? And by the way, I spoke to a very senior Twitter
executive a few nights ago. They always call me late at night as if somehow it's going to be
discreet or off the record when they call me late at night. And it is, the dog's like a vault.
The dog's like a vault, right?
Anyways, this individual said that the product development team at Twitter has never felt this much pressure. Well, it's about goddamn time. Anyways,
let's hope that Twitter commands the space it occupies and continues to rule out innovation,
including a shop button, and who knows, maybe someday even an edit button.
So Twitter, finally, finally feeling
the heat, feet to the flame of product innovation. Let's do a fraction. Let's show a fraction of the
moxie of the creativity of the innovation that the other platforms have demonstrated over the last
decade. Twitter, we're counting on you. Tea to the winter, product development. Stay with us. We'll be right back for a conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin.
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Welcome back. Here's our conversation with Andrew Ross-Orkin, a columnist for the New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box.
Andrew, where does this podcast find you? And I know it's Montreal. That's our big joke. You're Canadian. You can admit it here to me right now.
Upper West Side, New York City. Upper West Side, New York City. That's right.
Upper West Side, New York City.
I've been to Montreal only a handful of times.
Formula One in June.
We're going, baby.
Because you and I are close friends.
You don't know that yet, but you and I are close friends.
We go to Formula One together.
So when we patched you in, you were emotional,
and you said that the reason you're emotional,
or tell us why you're feeling emotional i um was just uh watching virtually i guess in this new world we're all living in a funeral for vernon jordan uh who for for those listeners don't know was was a great civil rights activist
uh turned businessman um who did so many things for the Black community over the last
40 years, 50 years, maybe even longer than that. He just passed away at 85 years old. And
Ken Chenault, former CEO of American Express, was just talking about him. And ursula burns uh former uh ceo of xerox was just speaking about somebody that she
described as her best friend and it was so emotional and to see such an outpouring of people
and what he did for the black community in the in the business world was just so remarkable he had
been on the board of so many of these companies himself and was a mentor uh to so
many uh obviously worked uh side by side as an advisor to bill clinton uh who was also
participating in the funeral but what i didn't appreciate was fully and i'd known vernon for a
long time and just he was magical he was one of those people could own the room and when you felt
like when you were in the room with him,
you were his best friend, he'd tell you these stories
and he was just an unbelievable guy.
But I didn't appreciate or know how much he was behind
the careers and the lives of so many of the black professionals
who really did rise to the top and what he had
done for them. And that to me was something. You're always learning something new every day.
And that was that for me. Yeah. I did not know Mr. Jordan, but yeah,
there's been a tremendous outpouring. So let's try and get you out of this and let's pivot
to the markets. That's the other podcast you have. That's right. That's right. So you,
I was thinking of the markets as this organism that absorbs millions of data points and then
spits back a number. And you sort of absorb more points of light around the market than most people.
And I'm just curious your sense. So interest rates, what's going on in the markets. When you look at the market right now,
what do you think are the two or three things or themes or things people aren't talking about when
you say, okay, if I had to describe some of the themes in the market right now, things that you're
concerned about, things that you see that you think other people aren't seeing, what's sort of
the gestalt or the vibe of the
market right now, according to Andrew Osborne? To me, I'd say part of it is there's a,
and this is not a new phenomenon in the market, but buy the rumor, sell the news. And one of the
things I wonder about is the market went on such a wild rollercoaster of a ride this past year.
I shouldn't even say rollercoaster because it
wasn't going up and down. It was going up.
Kind of a rocket ship.
Like a rocket ship is right. And here we are on the cusp, hopefully, of going back to some
semblance of normal, maybe in the next couple of months, or at least the beginning of that.
And all of a sudden, obviously, you're seeing interest rates rise. You're seeing the stock prices fall off.
And what's so unique and interesting about that is, oddly enough, investors always say they're looking at 12 months.
They're looking at 18 months, 24 months from now.
And here they were making that bet a year ago.
And people, by the way, of course, thought, what the hell is happening here?
Unemployment's going through the roof.
At the same time, the market's going through the roof. How can these two things possibly be?
Anyway, I think there's something very unique happening in that regard. So that's data point
one for me that maybe now there's an expectation that a year or two or three from now, it may not be the roaring 20s, post-Spanish flu.
There's another element that I'm fascinated by right now, which I can't get my head around,
which is the individual investor. This feels very late 1990s in terms of just the day trader,
active trader. But the other thing that's new almost feels like a political
overlay. I don't know if you feel this way. It's like a freedom thing going on.
Well, it's cast as a movement. And I wonder how much of it is hype and how much of it is real.
I can't disarticulate the two.
So is it a movement? No, but when I say freedom, it's almost like people want to have the freedom, the access to be able to shoot the moon, to buy the lottery ticket, to play the game the way the professional, quote unquote, plays the game.
But what's so interesting to me about that is, you know, for so many years, it was drummed into my brain that my job as a journalist, in part,
is to protect the small investor.
Yeah.
And that's something, protect the small investor
at all costs.
That's the whole thing.
And so here we are in this moment where I'll go on TV
or I'll write a column or whatever and say, look,
this is a problem.
Like this whole GameStop thing, this is like cuckoo
for Cocoa Puffs.
Mm-hmm.
What's the end? this whole GameStop thing. This is like cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. Mm-hmm. And what you get back from folks online,
on Twitter, on social media,
is stop trying to protect us, Sorkin.
We don't want your protection.
And by the way, your protection,
you're not protecting us.
Yeah.
You're protecting the man.
You're protecting the suit.
You're protecting the establishment.
We don't buy your faux paternalism.
You're in a steam room with Carl Icahn and Gordon Gekko protecting them.
There's a feeling that it's a conspiracy against them.
And so that to me is sort of a fascinating piece of it.
And then the last piece, and maybe this is the sign that we are near a top, though, by the way, you know, Alan Greenspan famously talked about irrational exuberance, and he was right, but it was 1996.
It was two years early.
It was probably three or four years early.
So maybe we'll be having this conversation in four years from now, and you'll be laughing at me.
The whole SPAC phenomenon of these blank check companies makes no sense to me.
It's not that it makes no sense to me.
It's a sign of craziness. And when anybody and their brother, and whether they're a celebrity
or they're this or that, are getting involved in this stuff, and also just getting involved in
deals that are not great deals, the disclosure stuff is terrible. And not enough people are
blowing the whistle. And by the way, when you do blow the whistle, it's sort of like what I just
said before. They say, stop blowing the whistle. This is my access, Sorkin. I want access to, this is like getting, I'm getting on the ground floor of
an IPO. Why are you complaining? Why are you giving Chamath Palihapitiya a hard time because
he won't disclose his fees? What is that? But let me ask you this, right? You're a big name.
You were, say you were unencumbered by conflicts and a great operating group with great operators came to you and said, SPAC is a great way to just raise capital and we're going to go find a company in media.
Would you want to be a part of that?
If you had called me 12 months ago.
Yeah.
Yes.
Maybe. maybe. And if I thought it could be done honestly, and what I mean by honestly,
with proper disclosure, because I just think the documentation on SPACs today is gross.
Can you say more about that? Because I don't appreciate it. You mentioned fees not being
disclosed. Can you say what is not being disclosed? Because I thought it was SPACs
where they made all the disclosures in advance such that they could just add water. You're
saying that's actually omitting certain disclosures. What I'm saying is that I don't think that the average retail investor understands the various
misalignments along the way with them. So when the SPAC is first, quote unquote, IPO'd,
there's a group of investors behind it. You often see big names involved in
some of the early, when the SPAC first goes off and those are brand names. But those brand names,
by the way, that's a financial arbitrage play for them. They're not actually betting on anything
happening. They're literally betting that they can clip a coupon for the course of two years if no
deal happens and that there's a option on the
other side if something magical happens. That's exactly what's happening and that's all that's
happening. What I don't think people understand along the way is the sponsor. So if I was doing
it or you were doing it, Scott, you would be collecting effectively 20% of the company if you successfully buy something.
So if you take, just for purposes of demonstration, so you do a $300 million back,
you raise money, you get $300 million in cash. And the notion is you'll go put that $300 million
to work. And typically you do a pipe or some sort of debt financing such that you can buy something for five, 700 million, a billion dollars. Totally. But you've collected at minimum,
typically 20% of the original SPAC. 20% of the $300 million is yours. This is not pay for
performance. This is pay before performance. You're like a banker, except you're getting 20%
instead of 7% for getting the company public. Right.
And what's happening though, my understanding is if you double or triple it up with debt,
that 20% effectively goes to 6%. And then the targets, the sellers are getting wise to the
fact that there's more SPACs than there are good companies. And they're asking the operating groups
or the SPACs to clip that 20% back. So the market is sort of efficient.
So the market's starting to get there, right? There's starting to be some harder negotiations. So that's the first piece. Then the second piece
is the de-SPAC when you go buy the company, right? And you bring in these pipe investors.
Well, the pipe investors oftentimes are getting it... First of all, they get to look at the books,
which you'd say is a good sign because it would be an endorsement of the situation. But oftentimes, they're getting it at a price that is purposely lower. Now, you know,
now when I say purposely lower than what it would otherwise be, some people say that's the equivalent
of what an IPO used to be anyway, right? So, you have that piece of it. But I also don't think
people fully understand. You're seeing with Chamath Palihapitiya with this transaction around Virgin Galactic.
These guys are not long-term shareholders.
What do you mean when he sold his entire stake?
He sold the stake.
He sold the stake.
He was not in this.
To be clear, he still has a stake through his capital vehicle.
But when you sell $200 million of stock in a company, I don't know about you, but it's just like, there's no way to put lipstick on a pig here.
That is not a great forward-looking indicator when someone who knows the company really well decides to sell $200 million in stock.
I wonder if these things, and I'm like you, I think SPACs will be here for a long time, but the SPACAC index is going down and I think it's going to continue
to go down. And I think we will likely see that moment as a watershed moment when the kind of
king of SPACs, and he was a visionary, he did it early. And I give him a lot of credit for it.
Yeah, he kind of forged the market. But when he sells $200 million of stock in a company,
especially a company like Virgin Galactic, I think of Richard Branson as a visionary. I think of Chamath as a visionary, but it's like, where's the engineer that's going to
put people into space? It just feels very vulnerable. What do you think? The air is
coming out, or it feels like the air is coming out across the entire SPAC universe right now.
I think it's coming out. We saw this already start to happen with this EV transaction that
Michael Klein was involved in, where the stock had raced up to $50.
And then, by the way, races up to $50 because retail shareholders are expecting a deal with
this EV company. And then he turns around and sells stock to the, quote unquote, institutions,
the pipe investors, at $15. So the stock's trading at
50 bucks and they're getting, and they see this. I mean, like physically it's happening in front of
you. That's what's different than an IPO. You know, an IPO, there's a little bit of a gamble,
at least. This is like, you see where the stock is and you're getting to buy it at a massive
discount. So I think that we're going to start to see some compression on this. And I do
think some of the big name people who've been doing this or have been trying to get into this
business, it will become less and less attractive for them because the fee structure will get
pushed down. But when you look at the market, so you could also make the argument that the number
of publicly traded companies has been cut in half the last 30 years.
So this is just regression of the mean where more companies are going to be publicly traded.
But when you look at the market as a whole, do you say, all right, I feel uncomfortable with these frothy highs.
We've probably got another two years.
When you think about the stimulus just pumping all of this sugar, this steroid into the market. I mean, look at 2021,
and none of us have a crystal ball, but you see, you're closer to the, you have your ear closer.
No, look, I think that when you have, I mean, the SPACs are a great example. You have $600
billion chasing not $600 billion of worthy companies. And so there's an imbalance. What
does that mean? I mean, the thing that I keep thinking about with all this is, you know, is there something systemic here, right? Can this all unravel, come undone in some terrible
2008-like way? I've been so scarred by that period and writing Too Big to Fail and all that.
And what I can't figure out is how that part of it happens in large part because it doesn't feel yet that people are totally over levered.
Meaning I would say every financial crisis is, there's only one thing behind every financial
crisis and that is debt that's leveraged.
And you could have everybody doing terrible things.
It doesn't matter as long as it's the debt is the match that lights the fire.
The thing that I haven't figured out and I don't know if anyone's figured out is you know we use the phrase too big to fail back in
the day back in the day 2008 it was in the context of banks today we use that phrase oftentimes in
the context of municipalities cities states delta airlines delta airlines but countries yeah and a
crisis is a crisis of confidence and so is there a moment at
which somebody says you know what i don't think these people are good for the money anymore and
the whole thing unwinds and that's the part i don't know when we see interest rates rising and
but we're also you know it's happening across the world so who knows who knows but let's if If you think about the correction in 2000, we had Pets.com and Cybershop, whose business model was buying Furbies for $60, selling them online for $20.
And at one point, they were worth a billion dollars.
And then in 2008, it was the subprime crisis or subprime debt or mortgages.
If you had to pick one place where it starts here, I mean, everyone
talks about stocks. I think the bubble is in the credit markets. I see companies that look like
fairly mediocre companies that are borrowing at 5%. And I look back, I go, you just need to go
back seven years and much better companies went out of business and their bonds were at 12%.
I mean, it just seems high risk, low return.
Totally. So you could look at the corporate bond market, but the other thing that started to happen
again is a little bit of the 2006-7 thing in terms of some of the way those bonds are structured. I
think a lot of people thought the private equity industry would blow up in a financial crisis.
And it didn't in large part because there were so many ratchets and other weirdo provisions and devices in the bonds themselves so you can extend and pretend for longer.
And I think you're starting to see that again with some of these bond issuances where that opportunity will exist. So even if some of these companies do run into trouble, the dominoes don't all fall at the same time, which to me is always the thing I
worry about. Yes. Will there be companies that are going to go BK, bankrupt? 100%. Will there
be a lot of them? I'm sure. But will they be massive names? I don't know.
Yeah. So if you look at the market, it's really a story of tech. And that is
the market sands technology stocks. It's just done okay to even meddling. And then there's a
small handful of stocks that have basically dragged the entire market up. And I think it
created a bit of an illusion that the entire market is doing really well. Do you see tech continuing to skyrocket
or do you think there'll be a reversion
and the old economy guys will have their moment?
And I mean, over the course of the last couple of weeks,
market's been up and tech's been down.
Compare kind of big tech and the rest of the market.
Life is relative, right?
Do I think that they'll have their moment?
Sure, but their moment,
I don't know how long lived the moment will be. And I don't know if you're going to see banks on a rocket ship the way Tesla was. I doubt that's going to happen. Do I think there'll be a reversion of the mean on some of the tech stocks? You'd have to think so. I mean, I just think, come on. I mean, has everybody not gotten their Peloton already? I mean, really? I mean, really?
In the back, yeah, I used my Tesla to bring it home.
You know, so like, yes. And by the way, Peloton will continue to grow. It just won't grow as if
it's, you know, going to the moon. So, I imagine the tech will, quote unquote, struggle in terms
of in the market, but I think they're still great businesses. I think Amazon's such a killer, amazing business. Having said that, you tell me what you think is going to happen
if Washington and this new administration decides to break them up. And by the way,
maybe that'll be good for the market. Maybe they'd be good for these companies and their
stock price ultimately. But you look at some of the names, whether it's Tim Wu or-
Lena Kahn today.
Exactly, Lena Kahn today.
If they have their way, and I don't know if they will,
boy, would they take a sledgehammer to these companies.
Yeah, it's gonna be very interesting
and I would argue overdue.
So talk to us a little bit,
give us your thoughts on crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum thoughts.
Oh, my God.
You know, let me just say I was – I want to say it was Brian Armstrong.
I think I met Brian Armstrong.
Brian Armstrong runs Coinbase.
Maybe in 2012 or 13, 13 I want Brian Armstrong. Brian Armstrong runs Coinbase. Maybe in 2012 or 13, 13, I want to say.
And I remember he was explaining to me and I didn't really get it. I didn't understand. He
said, okay, you know what? We'll set up an account with five bucks. By the way, the five bucks today,
I think is probably worth a hundred something dollars. I don't know what it is, but, and I
didn't get it. And I just didn't get it. I do
think it's not a bad store of value. I could see it being like gold if you believe in gold. Now,
Warren Buffett will tell you, don't buy gold. Gold is stupid and it very well may be.
I see it potentially as a store of value, not as a currency. I don't get the currency argument.
Yeah, you mentioned Coinbase. They're looking at going public, supposedly, at $100 billion market
gap. I believe that's about 70 times revenues. And if it gets a pop, it could very well be worth
more than Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, on the first day of trading. I don't know about you, but that
just seems, what's the term? Fucking Looney Tunes to me. Look, I don't understand. But that's the term? Fucking Looney Tunes to me. I don't, look, I don't understand.
And maybe I'm, but that's the thing.
I've watched this thing go from, you know, whatever it was then,
a thousand bucks, 2000 bucks to where are we now?
$50,000, say $54,000.
So there's part of this is what do I know?
And there's part of me that thinks, okay, call me in a couple of years and we will be having a different conversation.
But maybe it'll be $200,000.
Maybe it'll be half a million dollars. Maybe it'll be a half, half a million dollars. Maybe it'd be a million dollars. I've literally
talked to people who have tried to convince me it's a million bucks a coin. And by the way,
maybe if you play the gold story, that's what it is. And I do, but I do think, I don't know if you
feel this way. I think there's so many people, maybe they're boomers, maybe they're different
who now are almost just, they're just, I don't want to say succumbing.
They're just like, I give up.
Okay, I'm in.
I'm just, I'm going to, I've been wrong thus far.
Now maybe I'm supposed to take the flyer.
But isn't this when, you know, just when you think the train is leaving the station is not when you're supposed to jump on.
That's the problem.
I thought it was overpriced at 19,
and I thought, I don't want to have too much fear of missing out,
so I'll buy a few coins.
And I did a podcast with Michael Saylor,
and you speak to him, and within two minutes,
you just want to buy.
Totally.
This guy's smarter than me, and he's been right and right.
And I can't not buy things on sale,
so I think, well, if it goes to 15 or 10, I'll buy in.
And now it's to 54
and I just can't do it. I'm just not physically capable of doing it. So I want to switch gears.
You're a role model for me for a lot of reasons, but one, I've optioned a couple of my books for
theatrical or original scripted television production, except the difference between you and me is that yours get made. So give us some insight into the Hollywood
side of the Canadian here. Tell us about Hollywood and getting shit on film and what you've enjoyed
about it and what it's like. So I've been blessed and I should tell you, I'm working on a new
project right now with the great Jason Blum and Len Amato and HBO to put something on its feet around GameStop.
So we'll see where we land on that.
What an original idea.
I haven't heard more than 12 of those.
You haven't heard about one of those?
Yeah.
By the way, I'm working on one.
I think you're involved in one too, right?
I'm working on one on Netflix, which means it's not going to happen.
Okay.
We'll race together.
If it does not happen, yours will. Okay. So you're doing HBO. There's a lot to happen. That means mine will not happen.
Yours will.
Okay, so you're doing HBO.
There's a lot of room.
There's a lot of room in the market.
But let's talk about that.
What's the theme?
What's the story?
I mean, when you look at GameStop, what's the drama?
What gets, you know, how is Julia Roberts or, you know, or I don't know, Ed Norton involved in this.
Like, how do we make it dramatic?
How does it, how does it fun?
Oh my goodness.
I think there's just so much drama.
I mean, I think you could be,
you could take it from the hedge fund side.
You could take it from the Robinhood side.
You could take it from Gil's side.
I mean, there's just,
you could go find some other people
who traded on top of this.
I mean, I think there's just so,
it depends sort of how you play it,
but I think there's so many different ways
to make these stories great.
And I think people oftentimes with financial stories,
which is obviously the stories that I love,
they get anxious about, can you put that on film?
How does it work?
You know, these guys,
they're all supposed to be sitting
in front of a computer screen all day.
And I think both with Too Big to Fail and Billions
and hopefully this,
I think if you make it about
the people, if you make it about them and their own story, there's so much drama in it. And even
though there's some people who are going to be making billions of dollars, and first of all,
there's people making billions of dollars and losing billions of dollars. And so I think there
are stakes in it. And I think it's always a personal story. And I think you realize that
even these guys who have great titles on their you know, they do put on their pants the same way we do.
And if you can capture the emotion of what's going on during those moments, I think there's really interesting stories to be told.
And I feel like Too Big to Fail in a way sort of was able to do that in large part.
You know, I think we all had sort of very
two-dimensional views of all of these people that we were reading about. I know I did,
and I was writing about these people. But then if you can get inside the room, if you can get
the viewer inside the room, they can see what everybody's talking about and what they're saying.
Everything becomes gray. And to me, gray is where the magic is.
Gray is where the magic is. You are so sexy. Gray is where the magic is. Gray is where the magic is. You are so sexy.
Gray is where the magic is.
Gray is where the magic is.
So I'm just, I want to know the real Andrew Ross Sorkin.
Can you tell us, can you give us a sense?
I would just love to know your day.
Describe your average weekday.
Take us through it.
Oh, man.
Okay.
So pandemic has made things a little bit, I don't know, better or worse.
I'm not sure in terms of just how the day flows.
There's less moving around, which I guess may be better.
Squawk starts at 6.
I'm usually up around 4, 4.30.
I do that till about 9.
Oh, not about 9, till exactly 9.
You're on for three hours.
Three hours.
Jesus, that's real on TV.
I usually get out of the chair around 7 to go get another, or right before seven to get another coffee if I can.
Yeah, but what are you doing between-
We've got an espresso machine.
What are you doing between 4.30 and six?
Are you researching stories or are you doing scripts?
No, no, no.
Just getting ready for the show.
I mean, look, so typically during the day I'm getting all sorts of notes and things from producers and I'm constantly back and forth with them about what we're doing the next day and who we're going to be talking to and which segments I'm going to lead.
Maybe Joe or Becky's going to lead to other segments, and we're figuring all that out.
And so I've usually read most of the stuff before I go to sleep at night.
Do you have any go-to sources for information?
Is it Twitter?
Is it the information?
Is it like what are your go-to sources?
I read the information. I read Twitter. I go to the Drudge Report. I
obviously read the New York Times and Dealbook. I read the Journal and the FT.
Do you get any of these lists like CNN's Five Things or Morning Brew or any of those?
I like Morning Brew. I actually give them a lot of credit. I read Brian Stelter. I read Axios.
I read Politico. So, you're just absorbing a ton of information. Yeah, just taking all that stuff in.
And then in the morning, you know, and it's changed actually over time.
It used to be a lot of stuff would break at like midnight overnight newspaper, but now nobody holds anything back.
So there's probably less new, new in the morning.
But now I find myself on Twitter now a lot in the morning trying to see what's happened overnight.
I often go to sleep.
I mean, I'll get you through the rest of the day, but I go to sleep typically at around nine, 9.30. So
I sort of miss sometimes what's going on at night. But I should say one of the things I'm doing,
by the way, at 4.35, 5.30 is, you know, we publish Dealbook, the newsletter, which is my baby and
something that I spend an inordinate amount of time on.
So oftentimes I'm slacking with the team.
Jason Carrion, Michael de la Merced are working in London.
So they're up even earlier than I am.
And so we're going over what's, you know, last minute changes,
things like that in the newsletter, which is also, by the way,
self-assessing very helpful to me for the show, because it's also like a way for me to read in and understand what's going on.
Yeah.
And the thing I love about writing is it forces you to actually understand a topic somewhat
exactly so anyway nine rolls around um in the old days after the show we'd probably meet with producers and talk about the next day today these days i probably do it more on the phone and maybe
some zooms a little bit but not so much zooming just jumping on the phone and maybe some Zooms a little bit, but not so much Zooming, just jumping on the phone.
Today, I very proudly worked out for an hour,
which I normally in the old days was not very good about.
I've tried to get better during the pandemic.
I don't know about you.
And then give us, so how do you wind down?
What do you do after?
So you do Squawk Box, then you do New York Times,
Dealbook.
And then, well, so now in this pandemic world,
the great part is I have three children.
We all have dinner together, which is amazing.
How old are your kids, Andrew?
I've got a four-year-old and two twin boys who are 10.
Nice.
So we've been having a ball together.
I mean, that's been one of the great blessings
of the crisis.
I know you're not allowed to say, or the pandemic,
I know you're not allowed to say there's any blessings in it,
but that has been like a meaningful one. And just, by the way, the idea that they can come in in the middle of the
day now. So that I feel like has totally changed us as a family, at least for me as a dad,
just how much time we're all able to just be around each other. And that's been great.
How do you think it's impacted your marriage, both of you being home? Your wife's an information
age worker as well.
So, oh, okay.
We're going to answer this question.
We're trying to be honest.
So this whole podcast is honest, honest, honest.
In a way, I think we got so much closer, actually.
But I will also say there were like, as I think with every marriage, especially when we're all together and just-
Oh, and three kids under the age of 10.
You're in Vietnam.
That's not easy.
I mean, we can talk about the Hallmark Channel version, but that's just not easy.
No, I think there were jokes early on that we were going to, you know, some people said there were going to be a lot of babies when the pandemic was over.
And other people said there'd be a lot of divorces when the pandemic was over.
And I'm sure there'd probably be both of those. I think, I'm hoping we will buck the trends of
both of those as well. And I think we will. But yeah, no, there were a lot of tough times. And
there was periods where I was freaking out and there were periods when she was freaking out.
The good news was we actually, when we had our freak outs, they were at different times for the most part.
So we weren't-
What was Andrew Ossoff freaking out about?
What were the moments that you were worried about?
Were they about family?
Were they about work?
Were they about, what were they?
Why were you upset or stressed?
I think I like a routine.
So when, I think in the beginning,
just the routine was gone.
So I had to sort of struggle to get the routine back, to create a routine. And so I was just sort of not my normal self, maybe not my
best self at all times. So in the beginning of the pandemic, we were in Connecticut. We'd gone
up to Connecticut and I'd sort of figured out a nice rhythm up there. And then the school started
again in the city and I got back here and my
whole life has been about work and, and seeing people for work, by the way. And I, I don't know
if I'm supposed to admit that I'm supposed to say that sucks. And that's terrible that my life
revolves around work. I love my work. I don't know. I have lots of, uh, misgivings about how
I feel about all that, but I think coming back to the city and being,
and, and, but sort of like doing what I do, but not really being able to do it
was like a bit of a mind F for me. And I think there were, there were times where,
where Pilar also, you know, struggled with, you know, I think, you know, her, by the way,
the book business that she's in was blasting off during this period, oddly enough.
Yeah, it's done really well.
But that also meant she was like crazy busy. I was crazy busy. The kids were having a new thing.
Well, and I'm sure you picked up your fair share of the slack, Andrew, just like all men,
just like all of us. I'm sure you absolutely put your shoulder down.
Let's say it here. I never did enough and she is superwoman. So let's just put it on the record
because she is superwoman. So let's just put it on the record because she is.
So, look, you had remarkable success at a very young age from these iconic institutions.
Can you look, when you look back, like what are the learnings there?
What pieces of advice would you offer young women or men that got you, you know, how did you get so much so early?
Are there any hacks or what advice would you give to your younger self or younger people,
younger listeners?
So, first of all, I'm lucky.
Let's just start there.
Like, truly, truly lucky.
If you don't acknowledge that there's luck involved in this, I mean, I like to think
I worked hard, but really, there's a lot of people who work hard in life and don't necessarily have some of these opportunities.
To some degree, I think I was naive. I was somebody who all I wanted to do was get my
foot in the door. I was happy to get coffee for people and Xerox and Staple. And all I wanted to
do was somehow become indispensable. That's what I used
to say, just somehow figure out a way to make yourself indispensable. Even if your indispensability
is getting somebody coffee, but that they become dependent on you getting that coffee and that
somehow the way you get the coffee is better than others. And I think that I was, I don't know if I was better getting the coffee, but I was
always, I always had ideas. I was always pitching, constantly pitching, pitching stories, pitching
things that people could do, pitching business ideas. What, you know, I just, I wanted to get
stuff going. I still do that today. And so I think it's about getting yourself, getting your foot in the door somehow, and then just making yourself useful and trying at least, you know, I like to think not having
a total ego about it.
I would do anything.
I mean, literally would do it.
I still think that some of the most fun I ever had in my whole career was working for
Stuart Elliott, who was the advertising columnist when I was 18 years old.
And I literally, he would like send me around New
York City to like pick up stuff. And I was having a ball. Let me, so as we wrap up here, so what
would you like to do professionally in the next five years that you haven't done so far? Like,
if you think, if you're really honest, say, you know what, I'd just love to do,
I'd love to do this. What would be an indulgent thing for you professionally or something?
What's a box that hasn't been checked for you?
So honestly, and I know this is going to sound crazy, I genuinely feel blessed in that I've gotten to do a lot of things I've wanted to do.
There's not much that I'm desperate to go do.
I would love to write more books.
I'd love to put another film out there.
I'd love to nail more books. I'd love to put another film out there. I'd love to nail the column. I'd
love to write a really great investigative series or something in the paper. That's a box. I've
written some things. I did this project around guns two years ago that I think, I hope, I like
to think move the needle a little bit. I'd love to try to do that again. Maybe I'll have to try my hand at a podcast like
you. It's like Bitcoin. I keep saying, get in, and you keep waiting.
Right. Right. And here we are. And here we are.
So last question, and it's the same question, but personally, what would you like to achieve
over the next 10 to 15 years, just personally, in terms of your own growth my own growth i do think this whole
pandemic in a way has made me reflect a lot on like what's actually important and i do think you
know i feel like i have some great relationships over the years that i've developed friends and
things in the world of journalism and business that i've been covering for all these years but
in the end you know what when when this gig is up the gig will be up and who knows what's going to happen there, right?
The family is the thing that's hopefully not going anywhere. And what I hope is I hope I can
somehow develop these amazing lasting relationships as a father and as a husband, not just when the kids are young,
but I want to be one of those dads, I don't know if I'll succeed at this,
where the kids actually love you later and want to hang out with you. Is that possible? I don't
know. But boy, would I love to figure out how to be that person.
Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist for the New York Times and co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk Box.
He's also the founder and editor-at-large of Dealbook, an online daily financial report
published by the Times, and is also the bestselling author of Too Big to Fail,
How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves.
He joins us from his home in Manhattan.
Andrew, thanks for the time and stay safe.
Thank you.
And hugs from Montreal.
We'll be right back.
Hey, it's Scott Galloway. And on our podcast, Pivot, we are bringing you a special series about the basics of artificial intelligence. We're answering all your questions. What should
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Welcome back. It's time for Office Hours, the part of the show where we answer your questions about the business world, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind.
If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at section4.com.
Question one, Brendan from New York.
Go ahead, Brendan.
Hey, Scott.
This is Brendan from New York.
I'm calling to ask about Twitter.
I know you've answered a lot of questions around this, and you have a point of view around having them by CNN, which I think is a really interesting idea.
What about having them buy Reddit? It seems like where they're shifting to this interest graph focused and Reddit's design of interest-based subreddits, you could
have this perfect storm of an interest-based feed in real time, tying to the depth of conversation
and engagement that you get on Reddit, both which would be
highly monetizable over times in terms of audience.
So let's talk about whether it's realistic that Twitter could acquire Reddit.
Its valuation most recently was $6 billion, which means that they probably have to buy
it for $10 because the people who invested at $6 don't want to get their money back.
They want to make money.
So this thing right now, because of the GameStop phenomena and Wall Street bets, it's brought a ton of attention to
Reddit, ton of traffic. So it's probably 10 billion, which means an additional $10 billion
issuance in stock and cash. That is a 16% dilution for Twitter. So I like the way you're thinking, Brendan, a lot of traffic, probably a lot of
opportunity to monetize. It feels like though, I don't know, does it feel like low calorie
monetization now? Because it feels right. It feels very advertising to me. It doesn't feel
like the premium kind of product you can charge for. And look at it this way. Look at it this way.
I think you could pick up CNN for somewhere between seven and 10 billion.
Would you rather have CNN, which feels more premium
and probably an easier point of differentiation
to move towards subscription or paid subscription?
Whereas Reddit, I think takes you more towards Android
and that is more clicks, more engagement,
more traffic that you would monetize with advertising.
Because I'm not sure people think,
oh, I'll start paying for access to Reddit information.
But I like the way you're thinking.
I do think Twitter has to go vertical.
I just wonder if Reddit takes them more
towards an ad model as opposed to a subscription model.
And I wonder if Reddit has become too expensive,
if you will, for Twitter.
But again, like the way you're thinking.
And that's, I think, the way that Twitter should be thinking.
And I think those types of questions should be discussed, have a robust discussion at the board.
Thank you, Brendan.
Question number two.
Hello, Professor Galloway.
My name is Tyler.
I'm a 2011 Stern graduate coming to you from the Lower West Side of Manhattan, Kansas.
I'm interested in getting your opinion on NFT art and the opportunity to use it as an investment vehicle.
At Stern, we learned that art was an asset class that is not correlated as well with the economy as other asset classes.
And during a recession, can actually appreciate well, whereas other asset classes won't.
Seems like NFT art is blowing up these days.
Is this Bitcoin where Bitcoin was three years ago?
Would you recommend going out and getting some pieces on Nifty Gateway or OpenSea?
How do you see this as an investment vehicle?
Tyler from the Little Apple, Manhattan, Kansas.
Always good to hear from a Stern Grant.
So, NFTs, non-fungible tokens.
Everything about Bitcoin, there's just certain concepts in certain people's names I can
never remember or wrap my head around. And there's something about the blockchain and crypto that
reminds me every day that certain parts of my brain are dying because I am barreling toward
death. That's another post or another podcast. But anyways, I have trouble understanding every
component of the blockchain and NFTs are no different. My understanding of NFTs or non-fungible tokens is that it's a means of saying this, not even
this art piece, but this video of this art piece or this representation of this media
in this medium are singular and there is no other.
And that has the opportunity then or the values of a currency where two people decide it's
worth something.
And it really just represents something that is a quote unquote supposedly a store of value if two people agree that it's worth something, which is the definition of a currency or a fiat currency.
NFTs for me, and I got everything I'm saying from a blog post from Seth Godin, kind of the original gangster marketing thinker.
I wonder or Seth wonders if people or artists are going to now spend more time
trying to market their NFT. So just as SPACs seem to be more a function of how well someone markets
that SPAC as opposed to the underlying business, because these businesses are high growth, low
profitability businesses that are all about the vision. And I wonder if NFTs take that to the next
level where it's not about the art, it's about your ability to create hype or heat around this new
construct or currency that sits on top of a piece of art. And I probably explained it incorrectly.
And if I sound like I don't understand it, trust your instincts. But the art world,
art is really incredible. As an asset class, I think it's the best performing asset class for
the last 30 or 40 years. It just keeps going up because it's both a store of value and something you can consume. The majority of things that your consumption, whether it's a Tesla or a private plane or a couch or, I don't know, things you buy that you really enjoy, typically don't go up in value. And we convince ourselves to spend more
money than we should on a watch or a piece of jewelry. But typically speaking, there's not a
very liquid market for them. Whereas when you buy a master or an old master or you buy a Damien
Hearst, those things have exploded in value and people also get to enjoy them. And there's a big
market emerging to securitize those assets and borrow against them. So the art market has just
been a fantastic asset
class for the last several decades. And this is sitting on top of it. This feels to me like
something that is going to go crazy and get a ton of attention. And we're going to find weird
pieces of art that have had an NFT placed on top of them, run up in value, and there'll be a lot
of media and there'll be some FOMO and a lot of speculation. But this just to me, based on my
boomer notion or preconception of asset values, this to me feels like something that doesn't end
well. So some additional context in 2020, the market for NFTs tripled to reach $250 million.
In February of this year alone, just in February, this gives you a sense of the heat that's coming
to NFTs. The 10 most popular NFT collectibles totaled roughly 400 million in sales volume. So $250 million in
NFTs in 2020, and then just 10 in February garnered $400 million. Mind blown. Thank you
for the question. Question number three. Howdy, Scott. Casey here. I just turned 32 last week
and graduated with my bachelor's degree 10 years ago.
I've been doing things in those years like moving from Dallas to Chicago to Portland and going from
project manager to scrum master to product manager. I did just cross the six-figure salary
mark as of last September, which was a huge milestone far from the trailer park I come from,
but I still have a confused sense of self-worth.
So I'm considering starting MBA core classes online during COVID till I feel I can go somewhere
in person, maybe late 2022, but I'm not all in on the idea. Do you have any kind of litmus tests
for this decision, especially for a not as young person? And do you think the new administration
could have an impact on tuition rates
or something else I'm not thinking of
that should influence my decision?
Casey, so I get different flavors of this question
almost every day from somebody.
And first off, 32 is young.
It all feels relative
because you're hanging out with people
who are probably having kids
or their parents are starting to die
or there's things happening in your life
that make you feel like you're not a kid any longer. But 32 is very young. And the way to
think about an MBA or anything else that's going to take a couple of years is you're going to be
34 in two years, no matter what. The question isn't whether 34 is too old to have an MBA.
The question is at 34, would you rather be 34 with two additional years of work experience,
or would you rather be 34 with an MBA?
So just sort of put the age thing aside.
There are several dimensions around this decision.
One is simply put your existing gig, and that is do you have senior level sponsorship?
You're making six figures, which is good money.
Do you like it?
Are you accelerating?
Is your pay growing faster than inflation?
Are you getting more and more responsibility?
Because there's a decent chance at your level, if you were to leave, they would replace you
with an MBA.
So you might be interviewing for the job you left after you get out of business school.
Some other things to consider.
Do you dislike the idea of going to business school?
Do you need a break?
Do you enjoy academia?
Do you want to make a pivot? Business school, I've always thought, is sort of tailor-made for what I call the elite
and the aimless. And that is someone who has their act together as good, as ambitious, hardworking,
but wants to pivot or doesn't know what they want to do. For me, it was a great kind of two-year
respite to sort of figure out what I wanted to do. Because going into business school, all I knew was
that I didn't want to continue to do investment banking, but had no idea what I wanted to do. And an MBA is a great place, a great way station to
kind of figure it out for a couple of years. Also, the financial position you're in. I don't think
it's worth, I don't think an MBA is worth full freight unless you get into a top 20, even a top
10 school. Also, also, I would let the market decide. I would apply and then see where you get
in. Apply to several schools. If you get your heart set on one school, that's almost a guarantee that
you're not going to get in. So apply to three, four, six schools. Hopefully get into more than
one and then play them off each other for financial aid. And let the market decide and then sit down
and say, okay, and sit down with some people you trust. Here's my current opportunity set. This is my seat right now. This is my financial situation. These are the schools I got into,
and this is the cost. So getting a full ride at Wharton is hard to turn down. Getting absolutely
no economic help and going to the business school at, I'm not even going to name it,
second tier business school, I don't know. I don't know if that's even worth it unless you got nothing else going on and your parents are paying for it.
So there's several dimensions here. Opportunity costs, the brand of the school you get into,
which still matters a hell of a lot, the financial aid you get, and also just personally,
personally, do you like the idea of going back to school for two years? Part-time MBA is also
an option. I personally think a part-time MBA is a difficult way to go. It's three years of working during the day and then going to school
at night and your school's sort of accommodating, but generally speaking, your work doesn't say,
oh, you don't have to work as hard because you're going to school. Also, is there an opportunity for
tuition remission among your current employer? If they really love you and want you to continue
to thrive, maybe they'd be willing to pay for some of that part-time MBA. However, however, you're making $100,000. You're 32, which is very young.
So at the end of the day, at the end of the day, Casey, you should take time to reflect on your
blessings and your achievements. You are doing really well. Thanks for the question, Casey.
So algebra of happiness. Last week, I talked about the passing of our wonderful family member, Zoe, our 14 and a
half year old Vesla, who brought us tremendous joy and happiness.
And it was striking the outpouring of support and empathy that we received.
Whenever you produce content,
a podcast, a blog post, there's a certain X factor to it. And that is I've put out stuff
that I thought was genius. It was like a tree falling in the forest. No one seemed to give a
damn. And then I put out other stuff that I thought, okay, this is good, but not great.
And it results in a, it gets, it goes viral or you get a lot of response. This was something I felt, I would say, a little bit
exposed or vulnerable around, and I thought, is this too personal? But almost more than anything
I've talked about or written about, this got probably the greatest or the largest response,
and also the most heartfelt response. There's something about, I think, this pandemic and how much emotion we have all felt. And then people just relate
to the extraordinary relationship they have with their pets. And it felt like there was just this
outpouring of empathy and emotion. And I received cards, video messages, really nice emails,
comments. And I also received, we're going to play for you and
we're going to end our podcast on this, a poem from a guy named Michael in South Africa. And
actually my dad asked me, he said, what's it like? We went out to lunch in San Diego
several months ago and someone came up to me in the middle of our lunch and said, sorry to interrupt. I love your podcast. And my dad said, does that get old? Or how does that make you feel when people come up and speak to you or total strangers? So how does it feel? How does it feel when you get kind of random poems or when people send you very personal messages or if someone comes up and interrupts your lunch,
how does it feel? It feels wonderful. Thank you very much. I really appreciate all the well wishes.
And it was wonderful seeing all the pictures of vishlas and other breeds from around the world
and hearing stories about what a meaningful relationship people have had, not only with their dog, but how the dog has been
this fantastic vessel of love for their life and for their other family members. So anyways,
here is Michael from South Africa who sent us a poem.
Hey, Prof G. This is Michael from Johannesburg in South Africa. I always thought that when I
finally got around to sending you a voice note,
it would have something to do with technology or marketing. But that's certainly not the case.
This voice note's about something far more important. It's about dogs and poetry. And in particular, it's about Zoe, your beautiful Vizsla, who's sadly no longer with you and your family.
We used to live in California, and when we came back to South
Africa in 2015 we brought back Milo, our beautiful golden retriever, who like Zoe was an integral
part of the family. Sadly a couple of months after we got back we found out that Milo had bone cancer
and we had to put him to sleep. On the day that we put him to sleep, my wife posted this on Facebook and I wanted to share
it with you and your family. For you Zoe, so this is where we part my friend and you'll run on
around the bend. Gone from sight but not from mind. New pleasures there you'll surely find.
I will go on. I'll find the strength Life measures quality, not its length
One long embrace before you leave
Share one last look before I grieve
There are others, that much is true
But they be they, and they aren't you
And I, fair, impartial, or so I thought
Will remember well all you've taught
Your place I'll hold, you will be missed.
The fur I stroke, the nose I kissed.
And as you journey to your final rest,
Take with you this, I loved you best.
That's it from Johannesburg for today, Prof G.
Thanks for the show.
Absolutely love it.
And by the way, all dogs should be allowed on the couch.
Our producers are Caroline Shagrin and Drew Burrows.
If you like what you heard, please follow, download, and subscribe.
Thanks for listening.
We'll catch you next week with another episode of The Prof G Show from Section 4 and the Westwood One Podcast Network.
I can't believe you got me to talk about all that.
Good for you.
I'm Oprah.
So the crown is racist.
Is that what you're trying to say?
Anyways.
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