The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway - The Future of Podcasting, Scott’s Investing Advice, and Choosing Between Career and Family

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

Scott discusses the future of podcasting and gives advice on how smaller podcasts can best position themselves. He then speaks about Michael Burry’s skepticism on index investing and why he disagrees with his take. He wraps up with advice to a listener who is deciding whether to relocate so that he can work in the office.  Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Buy "The Algebra of Wealth," out now. Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit hubspot.com slash marketers to learn more. Welcome to the Profit Pods Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at ProfitU Media.com.

Again, that's officehours at ProfitUmedia.com. So, that's officehoursatprof2media.com. So with that, first question. I have not seen this question. Hey, Scott, Jesse from Pennsylvania here, a longtime listener, and I love all that you and the team do. I'm a youngish geology professor at a large, well-known state university. So your thoughts on higher education really resonate with me. I have two questions related to the future of podcasts. I help run a niche podcast that has a small but vibrant listener base. We have not monetized our podcast yet, but are in a position where we probably could generate a little bit of money from it.

So far it remains an outreach and educational project that we do ourselves. We've tried a bunch of little tests, including making our own audio textbooks on our standalone app with some success, but nothing to get too excited about. You have painted a really bright future for podcasts, especially in the recent months. So my first question is, how do you think this inflow of money will come in? Will it be a winner-take-all situation or more of a rising tide floats all podcast situation? Second, what would be your advice to people who run smaller podcasts focused on niche topics?

How do we position ourselves to not miss the boat? For reference, we have about 10,000 subscribers across all channels and our episodes each get several thousand listens in the first few weeks. We'd love to hear your thoughts and keep up the great work. Thanks for the thoughtful question, Jesse. And you have kind of what is probably the core confidence of podcasting, as you have a very handsome voice. Okay, podcasting. So once an industry is digitized, when everyone has access to everything seamlessly, quality not only wins, it soaks up all of the cookie. And that is you digitize retail

and 50% ends up with one e-commerce company, Amazon. You digitize information and you get 93% share to search. You digitize photo shine, whatever it might be. And you have one company with two thirds market share of all social and that's Metta. The same thing has happened in podcasting and that is everyone has access to everything on Spotify or on Apple Music. And as a result, this medium is growing like crazy.

According to Podcast Industry Insights, there are 450,000 active shows releasing episodes regularly, but the top 25 podcasts alone reach nearly half of US weekly listeners. Think about this, 50% share of the 25 top podcasts in a pool of 450,000. Jesus, talk about inequality. If you break into the, you know,

if you get into the NBA, it's a great living, but unfortunately about 99.9% don't. It is very difficult. I started seven years ago. Pivot does about seven or9% don't. It is very difficult. I started seven years ago. Pivot does about seven or eight million a year. It'll do 10 this year. By the way, I talk about money. I think it's an attempt to keep poor people down

when people who are making a lot of money don't talk about money. I want people to understand business. I want them to understand exactly what's going on. Prop G does less. Prop G does around five or six million, but it's growing faster. It's growing 40% a year.

Those are not big businesses. Raging Moderates will probably do, I don't know, we'll see, it'll probably do one to two million next year as we get going, get our feet under us. These are small businesses, except they're ridiculously fucking profitable once you get to a certain point. This podcast has a producer and associate producer,

a tech person and a sound engineer. And we have some analysts supporting some of the data, but okay, what are those costs, right? Half a million to a million bucks a year, if you have really talented young people who you overpay, see about profiting media. But this is, you know, once you get to a half a million or a million in revenue, it's all gross margin.

It's all profits. So these things can be massively profitable once you get to a certain point. As it relates to you, as it relates to you, advice, the specific crowds out there in general, you want to go very niche, very niche, right? You want to own something, absolutely own it. Two, you want to Mr. Beast it every week. What could we do with the sound, sound effects, production, editing? I think less is more. I'm always a fan of cutting more. Who could we bring in?

What better guests could we find? And then the kind of next generation of podcasting is probably the reshuffling. There's gonna be a reshuffling of the deck, if you will. Podcasting was initially kind of some semi-famous people who did interviews, and then it went to people who are more talented, bringing different content and information.

The interview format, I think, is declining a little bit. Then there was a big trend around really highly produced podcasts, serial and crime podcasts. The problem with those is they're expensive to produce. I think the next generation or the next reshuffling of the podcast stack is gonna happen because of the following trend, YouTube.

And that is, if you don't get as many views on YouTube as you get downloads, you're no longer gonna be a top 100 podcaster. The new distribution medium for podcasts isn't Spotify or Apple, it's actually YouTube. And now people are spending, or more people are watching podcasts on YouTube than they are listening to them.

So you need to up your video game. This is hard for me, because the thing I love most about podcasts is my studio, it basically looks like a giant shaving kit. And I take it everywhere in the world, no matter where I am, I can do my podcast. And that's a huge unlock for me, because daddy likes to travel. So I'm in Sao Paulo, Cabo San Lucas, Las Vegas, LA,

then Las Vegas again in the last two and a half weeks. And guess what? No interruption in my podcasting. And unfortunately, to take it to the next level, I probably need to put more resources into video and a static studio space. I don't know if you're watching this, No interruption in my podcasting. And unfortunately, to take it to the next level, I probably need to put more resources into video and a static studio space. I don't know if you're watching this right now,

but I'm in my guest bedroom because we're moving and it's not well, what you call high production value. I mean, Jesus Christ, look at this face. I look like a fish that swam too close to a reactor. Makeup, makeup. Anyway, at your level of downloads, it's gonna be difficult to monetize. You'll sort of for a moment be going to be difficult to monetize.

You'll sort of for a moment be tempted to have it be subscription. Don't do that. I think subscription was a bad idea. If you're a guy like Sam Harris and you're just so fucking talented that people pay a hundred bucks a year, fine. But what's interesting about podcasting is there's very few places to find a young, wealthy consumer if you're an advertiser. They're all on Spotify and watching Netflix, which means they don't see ads.

So podcasting is one of the last places an advertiser can go to reach a young, wealthy audience. So the future is so bright for podcasting, you got to wear shades. Thank you for the question and good luck with your pod. Question number two. Hey brother, really appreciate everything you do. This is Derek from California, and I would love to know your thoughts on Michael Burry's skepticism on index investing.

Thanks so much. Yeah, this is super interesting and I'm not that informed here. The big shorts Michael Burry has warned about this supposed bubble in passive investing. His take, the recent flood of money into index funds feels a lot like pre-2008 craze around collateralized debt obligations, CDOs, the complex financial instruments that nearly collapsed the global economy. So Michael told Bloomberg, like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be back in 2023.

He made headlines by betting against the S and P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 taking out more than one and a half billion and put options. He was wrong and paid the price according to his 13f filing. Michael closed that massive short position at a 40% loss. And while the one and a half billion was the face value of the bet, not the actual amount he put in, it still shows how risky shorting can be. Short investing is really difficult.

That's, this isn't the question, but short investing is really difficult because the natural trajectory over the medium and longterm of the markets is up and to the right because of demographic growth and innovation. So I think Michael's an interesting guy. I think he's thoughtful. He's kind of a perma bear.

He's always betting on a catastrophe and occasionally be right. He's a little bit like my colleague, Nero Rubini, but I always learn when I listen to Nouriel, but Nouriel is pretty much a pessimist and it's kind of always warning of a crash and he was right, no way. I personally believe that passive index investing is a really good strategy. Why is that?

It's easy to convince yourself you're smarter than everyone else. It's harder to be smarter than everyone else. And when everyone has access to all information, you just want to bet on innovation and the American economy and that the entire, you don't need to find the needle in the haystack. I think you're better off buying the entire haystack. And also the key that people don't spend enough time

thinking about is absolutely minimize your fees. Also, there's a cost to stock picking. And that is you have to pick the stock, which means it takes mental bandwidth, which means you blame to pick the stock, which means it takes mental bandwidth, which means you blame yourself when it works or you credit yourself unnaturally when it does work and start believing you actually know how to do this, which you probably don't. You know, how do you get wealthy?

Slowly, but some sort of passive matching program through your employer or the government that matches. There's some of those programs here in the UK. Get it out of your hands. Have it taken out of your check automatically. Max out any matching program you have through your employer, through a government program, and then put it into passive index funds. Because, you know, if you're Warren Buffett, fine. If you're an amazing stock picker, fine. 99.9% of us aren't. And focus all of that additional

energy you would spend trying to do analysis and convince yourself that you understand that, you know, Starbucks is going to go up and put it into your core job where you can make more money and then continue to invest in dollar cost average in the index fund. So now the passive investing people say, and I guess there's some truth to the fact that when anything becomes too popular,

it's usually not the right strategy. I can see an era where there's a great rotation out of the US, which is now 50% of the value of all stocks globally. It's usually around a quarter to a third. And we see a redistribution or a reversal of the flows out of the US into more emerging markets. So for example, I'm looking at some stocks in Brazil.

See above can't help but decide I'm a smarter stock picker than most people. But I have at least 30 or 40 different investments and I try to make them uncorrelated. So to a certain extent, I have a bit of an index fund that I've created myself. So I'm still a big fan of index investing. I just think that's the best, most bulletproof way to establish economic security. Thanks for the question. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us. Support for Proficy comes from Mint Mobile. Missing out on something big can really hurt. Maybe your flight got canceled and you couldn't make it to your friend's wedding, or your phone was on silent and you lost your chance at landing a new job.

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That's aws.com slash learn more. Welcome back, question number three. Hey Scott, it's Connor from Raleigh, North Carolina. I'm a 31 year old lead software engineer at a cybersecurity company and I'm reaching out for some life and career advice. I work fully remote and although I love my company and was recently awarded a quarterly performance award, I've been struggling with the isolation that remote work has brought to my life. Since COVID, I found myself spending nearly every day

working from home, often rolling out of bed just minutes before my first meeting. This past fall, I attended a summit in Seattle where I spent a week working from the office and it was a game changer. The focus, structure, and energy of working in person felt like a major boost to my productivity and overall happiness. Since then, I've been seriously considering relocating to Seattle to work in the office

daily. I think it could be a great move for my career and would help me regain the structure I feel like I've been missing. My wife is fully on board with the idea. She's lived all over the world and grew up in Raleigh, and I think that she would welcome a change in scenery. And her job is fully remote and she enjoys working remotely, so moving for her would be pretty seamless.

Here's the challenge. I have a three-year-old niece here in North Carolina, not far from me. Who means the world to me? Her dad is my twin brother, and he's been through a long and difficult battle with addiction, but is now in recovery. How do I balance my desire to work in the office and possibly accelerate my career with my desire to stay close with family and be a consistent present for my niece?

Thanks so much, Scott. I've been a huge fan of yours for a long time now, ever since Winners and Losers back on YouTube. And I really appreciate the work that you do. Jesus Christ, can you be my uncle, Connor? You sound like such a thoughtful, impressive young man. The first thing you should do is just take stock of your blessings. Let me get this.

You're a 31. You're a lead software engineer. It sounds like you're in a good relationship with your wife, you have a wonderful relationship with your niece, you obviously deeply care about your brother, I imagine he deeply cares about you, and you're close with his family, I mean you're just, you know, you're the man, you're definitely a role model for other men and people around you. I think you move. You're definitely a role model for other men and people around you.

I think you move. I think it's important that you establish economic security and personal growth and emotional growth and happiness for you and your wife. You guys are going to be, my guess is probably starting your own family pretty soon. And I think between FaceTime and maybe more than, you know, the occasional flight back to Raleigh, you can still maintain a really close relationship with your brother and your niece. Look, I think they would miss you,

but my guess is they love you a great deal and want you and your wife to be happy. And I believe that, and I don't, I think anyone who has, who's ambitious, young, and talented should be in the office. You're gonna make more money in the office. You're gonna make more money in the office. You're gonna make deeper relationships. You're much more likely to get promoted.

It's, and being in a city when you're young and you don't have kids and you kind of dance between the raindrops and have a smaller apartment and enjoy all the benefits of a city like Seattle. Jesus Christ, a lot of rain, a lot of rain. I think you do this, brother. When you move and you shake it up a little bit, you may look back and say, we didn't do better, but it was the right move.

I'm in London, I don't love it here, but it was the right thing, because it was good for my kids, it was good for a change. And I think if your brother's on the path to recovery, I don't know, I think you're focused on yourself right now. What would your niece want for you when she's 25? She would look back and think,

I have this wonderful uncle that loved me a great deal and I loved a great deal. But what I wish was that he was incredibly happy, that he was doing what built economic security for him and his family, made him and his wife the happiest. You're still going to be able to be an outstanding uncle, which it sounds like you are. And some and some, Seattle here you come. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at propgmedia.com.

This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Chagrin. Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Proff.G Podcast from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Proff.G Markets pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday. Amazon Q Business is the generative AI assistant from AWS. Because business can be slow, like wading through the mud. But Amazon Q helps streamline work, so tests like summarizing monthly results can be done

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