The Reel Rejects - MOVIE NEWS: Avatar 2 Might FAIL At The Box Office

Episode Date: November 24, 2022

Well…The statements by James Cameron about how Avatar The Way Of Water needs to make 2 Billion Dollars To JUST BREAK EVEN & become the 3rd or 4th highest-grossing film of all time, along with other obstacles, possibly puts future sequels in jeopardy. We give our reactions & thoughts on the box office battles based on box office projections, streaming, production cost, trailer, & MORE. #avatar2 #Avatar #AvatarTheWayOfWater #Disney #TheWayofWater #JamesCameron Become A Super Sexy Reject For Full-Length T.V. & Movie Reactions! https://www.patreon.com/thereelrejects Support The Channel By Checking Out Our High-Quality Merch: http://shopzeroedition.com/collections/reel-rejects-merch Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/the-reel-rejects/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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tanking like i'm so nervous to see this like make a billion point five and people go man avatar really underperforming right guys i am shamelessly plugged out today ladies and gentlemen how you guys doing we are here today to talk about how avatar the way of the water i think they should have had two does there that's just my personal opinion the avatar the way of the water the might actually underperform at the box office because the expectations are through the roof so wanted to go over quite a few things as i think this is like a really interesting upheaval battle that the movie might actually have to endure i didn't think to be in this position but hearing some reports that have been coming out i'm pretty surprised by what we're hearing so guys if you can leave like

for john for john being here please like john please like john johnny can be validate it by your like button. So guys, go for it. The main thing that's been taken off is the fact that James Cameron has been coming out and saying that this movie needs to make like two billion dollars to just break even. That's not a profit. That's just for the studio to go, this was worth the time and money. That is insane to me. Like, wow, how much did this movie cost? Because the early reporting for the budget was like $250 million. And I'm like, what? You need to make. Like $2 a billion, it needs to become the third or fourth highest grossing film in order to burn you.

I'm just like that. It's just nutty to me. I can't get over to that. There's other things I want to go over like streaming and other things of why I think it could actually has a chance of doing it for sure. It's just nuts to me. But it's also the most unique position. I think any filmmaker has ever found themselves in when it comes to the sheer volume of

business they have to jet. Like, as much as James Cameron is an innovator and a pro, I would be sweating constantly. Yeah, because they need to turn a profit, especially if you want to make 14 more Avatar sequels. You need to make a buck here, man. He was out here saying, if Avatar 2 doesn't perform, you know, I guess we'll just have to wrap it all up in part 3. And I'm like, if this doesn't perform, I don't know if there will be a studio left to fun part 3. It's just like the dialogue that he's, like, giving in these interviews. You don't sound the most optimistic sometimes the way you're talking about how you think Avatar the way of Water might do.

right now we have early projections estimated and usually you know studios try to be a little bit modest um in the beginning stuff where you know under promise over deliver it's usually a great way sometimes they start minimizing that the closer they get to the release day but yeah the early projections right now are between 150 to 170 million dollars which is good yeah it's not like one of the some of these marvel movies they have like an early projection that can be a little bit higher still you guys you mind two billion dollars now there's some good things here that can get them too there, all right? Like I was looking through some numbers, and they don't really have any competition for a while, all right? That's a great thing. Avatar makes for a great holiday

experience. The first one came out around the holidays and did well and had a really great run. Also, it's getting a release in China, which should definitely help you have a good boost. The trailer for Avatar, The Way of Water, the first trailer had like, I think, 148.6 million views on it. So if every one of you buys a ticket, it'll break even into that $2 billion mark. I think it'll be like, it'll be above $2 billion. If every one of you buys a ticket. IMAX or a 3D ticket, especially. It should do well.

And this is one of those rare films where you say 3D and people might be like, you know what? Yeah. Let's go see this in 3D. I actually might want to do it, which will help boost ticket sales. Now, there are some things that have changed, though, in the last 10 years. One is, it was the amount of trailer views that the movie was getting, the interest. Was that just because, oh, Avatar's. back, but what is the overall reception to it? Like, yeah, this does look gorgeous, but are people

dying to see this in the theaters? Secondly, to make that money, to make a profit, you have to have people who really want to do repeat viewings of it. That's how movies like Spider-Man No Way Home almost made $2 billion during the pandemic because the people kept going back to the theaters to watch that film. Same thing with Avengers Endgame. It did great. Like the first Avatar movie with its re-releases combined this close to making $3 billion. like very very very close with avatar the way of water like we're very excited for it i think it looks just gorgeous it looks absolutely gorgeous it looks like a massive technological innovation and something that levels up significantly from the first movie but a common thing not everyone feels this way

i'm just saying this is a common thing that you hear about that the movie's beautiful but the story didn't quite land as strong as a lot of people were kind of hoping for right now any movie that gets super popular usually here's some type of the eventually the criticism becomes a really strong you know topic of conversation with any movie that gets really popular yeah it's the way it goes the way it goes i get it but like with the way of water i am curious to know like are most people feeling like wow i really got to see this or wow this feels different or does it just feel like we're revisiting with just like some water shit going on in there you know what i mean whereas like with some of these franchise movies you see that they are doing something

like spider man no way home for just one example like oh they're bringing all these different characters in here. Oh, cool. Like, with the way the landscape is, we love, like, crossovers and all this shit. Can we get an avatar crossover going? Can Predator Land on Pandora? Can we do that? But even with Top Gun Maverick coming back, you know, there's the nostalgia factor of Top Gun. In the trailers, it did such an amazing job showing us, this is going to be a different kind of film experience, for sure, one that we haven't quite had before yet. So what this movie's really going to need more than anything else is just the best goddamn word of mouth that has ever existed right like this movie's going to need insane word of mouth because when avatar one came out

that was the thing that was the word of mouth i had never even seen a trailer a me trailer react guy had never even seen the trailer for it and i went because they just love james cameron movies and i was like yeah i got to watch everyone keeps won't shut up about it so i got to check this movie out i went because of that and a lot of people went to watch avatar because it was such a unique experience, but, you know, it's like, as great as this looks, that unique factor has definitely diminished now that we've gotten used to the world of Pandora, you know? Yeah, and more and more, like, really affects-driven films.

It's like you have the first avatar coming out at a time where I think everybody grasped the idea that, like, wow, this is a huge technical innovation, so we can cut the story some slack. And some people like the movie's story, but a lot of people gripe that it's, you know, Ferengeli or any number of other things. And I feel like one thing that worries me as beautiful as these trailers look and as much as like the time passage I feel like is a help because anybody

who's a bit interested in the movie business probably can sense that there's been a lot of innovating going on in this movie. There might be enough time to build that nostalgia for 2009. But people are also looking at this trailer and going, the first trailer, the teaser, the final trailer. None of these really give a sense for what the story

is aside from something that looks a lot like what we did the first time. And that's the big thing that worries me for this movie. because we've sat here and gone this looks so beautiful the cultural aspects that made the first avatar really touching are all there but what is going to separate and make the story stand taller and brighter than the first movie and that's the thing i think the movie really needs to prove to everybody yeah it needs to have that it needs to be so justified in the fact that people will want to keep going back because this movie's also really freaking long it's a long ass movie big ass and i think james camera i forget what the exact quote is but he was like yeah told the studio. This is a rough business venture for everyone involved. That's a thick-ass runtime, man. Yeah. And so the movie has to justify, you know, people wanting to keep going back to re-experience that. And then, of course, the other main topic is streaming is way more prevalent than ever, you know, especially during the pandemic time. We've become more selective now of like, me, it's already a thing. But it's more of a thing now of like, do I really need to go to the theaters to watch this?

Yeah. And that has certainly. affected the big spectacle movies, and certainly with movies that don't have maybe as appealing of a story from the outside looking in, you know, people would be inclined to wait for streaming. And I feel like Avatar does have ground to make up in that there is a camp of people who are probably not that enthused and are going to automatically decide to wait. This movie has a chance of having great legs for many, many weeks to come. Even though the first one made close to $3 billion again re-releases combined, made like $2 billion on its original release. I believe, because, yeah, it became like the number one highest grossing movie of all time. So I'm rooting for the film. I'm like, I'm rooting for the film. But even from this spectator side, I'm like, that's a lot to make sure. And it's just go, all right, I didn't lose any money. And two, having that experience like we had with Justice League the first time around where you're like, this movie is making a lot of money.

And it's still tanking. Like, I'm so nervous to see this like make a billion point five. And people go, man, I have a avatar really underperform. You can feed a whole nation with the grosses, but it's failing at the box office still. Do you guys think it'll generate like a serious profit? Do you think it'll come close to matching the profit that the first movie ended up making? Yeah, that's a tall order right there, man. And there's a lot of things working against it.

So to think about, oh, wow, this movie might actually be getting all those reports that I see about Wakanda forever and Black Adam all the time. I know, just on the biggest possible imaginable scale. I don't want it to, though. No, I want them to win. I don't want them to. As much as I have dogged Avatar in the past, I really hope they succeed because this is exciting. I think they can do it. I'll be more than happy if they do.

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