The Rest Is Politics - 566. Carney vs. Trump and Alastair’s Advice for Burnham’s First PMQs

Episode Date: August 26, 2026

Why is Mark Carney choosing economic pain over a deal on tariffs with Trump? As Palestinians prepare to vote for the first time in 20 years, why has Mahmoud Abbas decided that now is finally the moment to hold elections, and will Israel block them? With Andy Burnham preparing for his first Prime Minister's Questions, what advice does Alastair have on where Kemi Badenoch is most likely to strike? Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more in this week's edition of Question Time. __________ Enjoy Rory and Alastair’s interview with the President of UEFA, Aleksander Čeferin, by searching ‘Leading’ on Spotify, Apple, or YouTube. Go deeper into the world of The Rest Is Politics by signing up for our free newsletter HERE, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis and weekend reads from Alastair and Rory. Summer sale is HERE: get an annual membership for an extra 20% off with code SUMMER26 That's ad-free listening, every bonus episode, and full access to our exclusive members' series. Sale ends August 31st, so grab it before summer's over. The Rest Is Politics is powered by Fuse Energy. Stop overpaying for energy. Switch at fuseenergy.com/politics and get a free TRIP+ subscription. 🌏 Upgrade your online protection with an all-in-one security app! Get an exclusive NordVPN deal + 4 months extra here ➼ nordvpn.com/restispolitics It’s risk free with NordVPN’s 30-day money-back guarantee! __________ Instagram: @restispolitics Twitter: @restispolitics Email: [e-mail] __________ Social Producer: Celine Charles Video Editor: Bruno Di Castri, Joe Pettit Assistant Producer: Daisy Alston-Horne Producer: Evan Green Exec Producer: Bella Soames General Manager: Tom Whiter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Donald Trump is back to talking about Canada as the 51st state. And the striking thing is this no longer looks like a joke. Look at what killed the talks between the US and Canada this weekend. It wasn't really about tariffs. It was about Trump demanding control over Canada's external trade policy, whether or not they could use French labelling on packaging. These aren't trade asks. You basically can't concede these things and still be a country.

And we're beginning to see a pattern. Panama, Canada. Greenland, the Don Row Doctrine. So these are demands that are not good for America, but they are catastrophic for Canada. And this is what worries me about Trump. I don't think he's erratic. I think there's a consistent theme here of trying to subjugate everybody in his neighborhood. And the question for us is, what are we going to do about it? Here is a golden opportunity for the UK and Europe to reach out to one of the wealthiest, most stable countries in the world, one of our most natural allies. and the question is, will we? This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. £100, that is what one message to a friend could earn for you.

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Two and five Canadians will hear the words you have cancer. That's why every step and dollar raised matters. On September 19th, join thousands in Toronto for the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation Walk. Challenge yourself, friends, and family to walk 21 kilometers in support of life-saving research. Together, we can carry the fire and help create a world free from the fear of cancer. Register today at pmcfwalk.ca.com. Welcome to the rest of politics question time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alecester Campbell, and Rory, you ended the main episode by saying that some of the we're going to discuss in this episode relate to things we discuss then, not least the way that powers relate to each other, impunity, rules-based laws, etc. So, Canada, US, Gloria, very straightforward

question. What's your take on the US-Canada trade war? Jay. How much has Mark Carney's popularity benefited from Trump's trade war? Where do you want to start with US Canada? This is something that if you weren't paying much attention, you might think was the story that had faded. So you remember Trump comes in second Trump presidency, and he's talking about making Canada the 51st state, and he's referring to the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau as a governor. And then there are these absolutely stinging tariffs imposed on Canada. And then it fades away. Fades away a little bit because the Supreme Court moved against those tariffs. The world's attention shifted onto other areas.

And you would be forgiven for thinking, well, maybe, you know, the U.S. Canada thing was a bit of a blip and the whole thing's. been patched up, absolutely not. It turns out, and this is why I get very frustrated with the mooch going on about Trump or with chickens out, I think that's a very dangerous reading of Trump. It's tempting to think, okay, the guy has an idea, you know, he's going to build a wall, but he doesn't build a wall, or he says he believes in ICE, he's going to follow through, or he says he's going to keep the wall rolling in Iran, but he's not going to, and he's going to give up on his tariffs against Canada. That's not my reading of him at all. My reading from him as he's surprisingly consistent on Putin, on Ukraine, on tariffs, on immigration. And at the

core of this is the fact that he is doing something which is unbelievable to the Canadian economy. So the Canadian economy at about the time that Trump comes in was exporting 76% of all its exports goes to the United States. More than 60% of its imports comes from the United States. two and a half million Canadian jobs that are directly dependent on the US trade, about over a trillion dollars, 16% of the entire Canadian economy.

So Trump is in a position where if he really follows through on this, he can do permanent, really permanent significant damage to the Canadian economy. And Carney is treading a very difficult line. He does not obviously want to bankrupt his country,

but equally, quite understandably, he both personally believes that he's not going to put up with being bullied by the US in this way. And he's also got a Canadian people who are completely disgusted and outrage. I think latest figures suggest something like only 9% of Canadians, now trust the United States. And the question at the back of ends, what I've wanted maybe to start you on, is what is Trump doing? Because I don't think this is about the money. I don't think this is some remotely technocratic calculation. it obviously damages the US economy as well as the Canadian economy.

The integration of their car industry, Ontario and to Detroit, is absolute. I mean, these vehicles are crossing the borders again and again for every bit of engine and parts. I think he's still, if not quite saying, I want to make Canada the 51st state. He wants to make it a subject state. And the clues to that are what is he actually asking for in the tariff deal? He's effectively saying, you're going to be forcibly brought into a sort of single market customs union over which you have no say. You will have to change the way that you label your products. You're not going to be able to do independent trade deals with other countries, etc. Over to you.

Well, who knows what he's up to, but as things stand, this is major lose-lose territory. But what Mark Carney did last on Friday is of a piece with the speech that you and I saw him make in Davos, where he was warning about the nature of the American government. He was much more subtle and he was less pointed maybe than he is now, but he was warning that there was a fear that what American foreign and economic policy was actually about was subjugation. He was also warning that this goes to your theme of impunity and rules and so forth, that you couldn't necessarily trust this American regime. I thought one of his strongest lines on Friday was when he said, you know, we've learned the hard way that an American signature is often done in

pencil. You can't trust what they sign. You can't trust the deals they don't. Trump talks about the deal, Rory, the reason why, as you said, the story that kind of went away is because Trump, as with Iran, kept saying, they want a deal. They're desperate for a deal. Everybody's desperate for a deal. And so I think what this is about is him flailing around. And what he doesn't necessarily understand as well as he pretends to is that him being the big guy, America being much bigger, much stronger, much more economically powerful than Canada, he can just bully and intimidate and get his way. What Carney's done is said, look, I'm prepared to take a hit. I'm prepared to pay a price.

Canadians are prepared to take a price, but they're both going to get hit by this. Well, it's also a reminder of something that's difficult for us to remember, which is that because we were in a world that was predictable and because the ideological difference between parties was pretty small, we were in a world where for many years, we thought, that all that really mattered was economics, and we forgot about identity. And the reality is that, yes, this will be cripplingly economically damaging to Canada, but Canada will take that damage, rather than accept subordination to the US. I mean, the Trump's wants, and you can see it in his national security strategy, he wants the whole hemisphere subordinated to him. And he's done it

pretty successfully in Latin America. I mean, you've been very good at making us return to that again and again. It's not just Venezuela. It's what happened in all those elections from Argentina up to Colombia. Essentially, pro-Trump, right-wing governments that will do what Trump says are emerging in almost everywhere except Mexico and Brazil. So he wants to do the same in Canada. And it's very similar to how Russia wanted to treat Moldova or how Russia treats Belarus. You may not formally be a 51st state, but if the United States is able to make you sign a trade deal, which says you can't do trade deals without our consent, you can't put French labeling on products, effectively Trump is beginning to exercise the muscles that would allow him and successive US presidents to tell Canada what to do. And Canada's not going to do that. And I guess the analogy maybe is Moldova. I mean, Moldova, all its exports went to the Soviet Union. It was completely dependent on the Russian economy and therefore Russia thought it could. to do whatever it wanted in Moldova and it would never step aside. And in the end, people put freedom ahead. I mean, same would be true with the Republic of Ireland. It was in the short term,

very, very economically risky for the Republic of Ireland to leave the United Kingdom. Why did they do it? They do it because some things matter more than money. And I think this is where Canada is now. There's a piece today in the New York Times. I don't even if you, have you done the gloves off podcast in Canada or I did it recently? No. With a guy called Stephen Marsh. And I did it a few weeks ago. and his style in the podcast is a little bit like us. He's quite measured and he, I mean, okay, I may explode every now and again at something, but broadly quite measured, likes to go into things in depth. And I didn't realize whether this is a regular thing, but he writes for the New York Times.

He's got a piece on the front of the New York Times today. It's an absolutely brilliant piece of writing. Friday, August 21st, it begins, may go down in history as Canada's Liberation Day. It was the day America came for us, and we said no. Canada, the choice came down to either severe but temporary economic instability or binding itself to a pseudo-democratic fiscal basket case of a nation whose only apparent policy objective has become domination for the gratification of its president's slapdash vanity. It talks about how Americans love power, but Canadians like toughness.

They're different. Canadians like to be tough. They like the capacity to endure. Dare I say, Roy, they're very perseverant. And as you said, this nonsense. Apparently one of the final sticking points was an American demand that Quebec undo its French language laws and French language protections. French in Canada is not a business matter. And he goes on, a grey banker, Mark Carney, and not just any banker, but one of the leading bankers in the world, has stood up and said that there's more to life than a little bit of money.

The American president clearly did not know who he was dealing with. he's following in the grand tradition of American leaders starting wars with people they don't understand then wondering what went wrong. America today is at risk of becoming one big Epstein Island. Maybe that's all it ever was. Canada has decided not to get on the plane. Stephen, that is absolutely brilliant. Absolutely wonderful. I mean the only thing is that it's not a small amount of money. It's a lot of money. And it's not a temporary hit. So it's a very brave thing to do. but I think they've absolutely got to do it. But, Rory, is it possibly a step towards Canada becoming a member of the European Union?

So this is clearly for the Alistairi and, dare I say, even Gerald Canals's worldviews, this, and even the Mark Carney Middle Power worldview, this is the amazing opportunity for strategy, leadership, statesmanship, right? This is the moment at which Andy Burnan and Jonathan Powell wake up in the morning and say, okay, that's it. we're going to reach out to Canada and we're going to create a formal structure, maybe an outer rim around Europe that includes Canada, Norway, UK, who knows, Ukraine, who knows Turkey, etc.

Iceland, referendum on Sunday, 50-50 in the polls. But I suppose what would it take to get there? Because, of course, in my gloomy moments, I'm like, we have absolutely the wrong leaders. Macron, he's going to make some speech where he sounds like he's in favour of this, but in the end, the small print will be everything for France. Mertz will think he's got other things to worry about the FD. Burnham will think that he needs to worry about domestic policy. Jonathan Powell will be trying to be realist

and doesn't want great idealistic fantasies of new structures being created around the world. So can they do it? Can they do it? Because it's the logical thing to do. I was with people from the Gulf again over the weekend. and they feel so strongly we need a third leg to the stool. It cannot just be the US and China. Yeah, totally.

And again and again, we're punched in the face. We're punched in the face. We're punched in the face. What would it take for your friend, Andy Burnham, to rise to the challenge, pick up the phone to Kani and say, okay, we're really doing this. You know, this matters to us in the same way that Ukraine matters to us, and we're going to create the structures to bring Canada in. Well, I was talking the other day to somebody,

the journalists would describe as close to Mark Carney and who was saying that they sense, not just because they both support the same football team, which is Everton, but they sense that actually Andy Burnham is instinctively much more likely to embrace that vision, that sense of a different sort of structures than Keir Starma was.

Because Keir Starma, understandably, I don't think we should criticise him with this, he felt he had to do his level best to try to build a good relationship with Donald Trump. okay, and, you know, he faced a bit of humiliation for that and all the picking up the papers and all that stuff that we remember. So that's the Canadian view, but it was interesting to me that almost what day are we today were Tuesday?

So this happened on Friday, and it was yesterday. Mark Carney's out there making a big speech about how we're going to take a big hit on this, therefore we've got to reach out and do much more with the European Union, which is the, he described as the second biggest economy in the world. Now, he for that, I think, was a way. of saying, is the first now China or is it America, which is he, who is that sort of basically saying, America, you're not as big as you were, I don't know. Look, I do think this is, this is so, it's just so obvious to me that the, you know, with your three-legged stool, name me one other

body in the world that might, in any circumstances, be able to rise up and be that third leg of the stool. Is there any other? Is Mercosur? Is Japan? No, no, no, it, it, it, It can't remotely. And if you were thoughtful and energetic with this third leg, you could connect Japan and South Korea to it. You could connect some of the Gulf countries to it. You could connect Turkey to it. I mean, it's Australia. Australia, absolutely, 100%. And I think you also need, though, a sense of what it stands for. Right. In the challenge for Alistair's new project in life, which is going to be creating this thing, you've got to. give us the values. And I think, in a sense, Trump's given us those values. Rule of law. Exactly. It is all about rule of law, decency, democracy. Yeah. Politics is a force for good, no corruption. Yeah. And I think this Canada, the European Union, Britain, you know, with all our flaws, all our hypocrisy, are the last plausible candidates, certainly compared to the US and China for standing up for that vision.

Well, I'll tell you who you could become a useful voice in this rule. Is the gentleman who happens to be head of state of two of those? countries that you mentioned. Canada. Canada. And I mean, I think, I think, I know he did it first time around, but I think another, I know he's, you know, he's got all sorts of other things to do, but I think another visit to Canada quite soon would be very good. Ah. Hey? I see. Yeah, yeah. I see where you're going there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, that's good. That's good. That's good. Anyway, and it would be nice to get the Foreign Office and the National Security Council and everybody in the British system waking up to this a bit more. And, and I, help me finally on

the French thing, because of course, France in many ways has always been better at thinking about this stuff, talking about this stuff, than anyone else from de Gaulle onwards. And it's true in security policy, it's true in technology, it's true in lots of stuff. And yet, somehow, nobody quite trusts it. I was talking to some of these countries that are struggling in the Gulf, and they're like, we're so grateful for Britain and Spain and Italy and Germany. And in the end, we don't quite trust the French. I don't know what. And maybe this is just some terrible thing.

But, or when I talk to Germans and they hear one of Macron's speeches, they never quite get on board with, he's often saying the right things, isn't he? He's often saying, you know, Europe needs to develop its own independent industrial strategy and its own AI strategy and its own stuff. But the terrible fear is always, and all those things are going to be built in France, and it's not really going to be a generous. If you go back to what we discussed in the main episode about, Ukraine. And I mentioned the countries that have paid nothing into this new mechanism that

buys Ukraine's air defense interceptors. And the guy that I was talking to said, therefore, is strategic autonomy, Macron's great phrase, a reason for that or an alibi? The other point about Macron, of course, he's phasing out. The talk in France now is all about the next election. There is a theory doing the Rans Roy that he might try and come back after a gap. He's still quite young. No, I think these things are always about leadership. They're always about leadership. The other thing I think it's worth pointing out is that, I mean, Mark Carney is a deeply, deeply impressive guy. He is a really impressive guy. And to, you know, standing up to Trump is no easy thing to do. Standing up to the United States, no easy thing to do, calling out these

clowns like Lutnik. And I thought one of the most impressive parts of his press comments where he turns to his own team. Okay. And I've met some of those teams as well. And they, you know, He's a tough leader. They don't always quite know what he's up to and he doesn't take any nonsense, right? But they are a team. They are a team. Trump does not have a team. Trump has a group of people who are petrified of him and who basically all fight for his attention and fight for his support.

And that is why they're less effective than they think they are at meeting these big challenges that Trump's vanity and narcissism sets them. A final one for me. Seeing him come back on Canada. makes me feel he's going to come back on Greenland, that we haven't seen the end of this, that I think he has these obsessions in his mind, and he's got a long time to go. He's not yet halfway through his reign of chaos and terror. So I think I'd be worried for Canada. I'd be worried for Greenland.

And I think it's really stupid to think that somehow we can just continue as though nothing's change, go through the next two and a half years and hope that we have a new U.S. present who's going to change everything. just even in the short term that's mad because so much can happen over the next two and a half years. Fiona and I, we've been in France, we've been in Croatia, we've been in Austria, we've been in Slovenia, we're now in Germany, tomorrow we're going to Belgium. We're doing sort of a bit of a grad European tour. What has been interesting is how many Americans we've met who just love Europe. So they've got a government that talks about European civilizational erasure and presents the whole place as a

kind of basket case and we're all overridden with stupidity and Muslims and all this sort of nonsense that they talk. And it is an industry now. There's a maggot industry. And yet you, everywhere we've been, we've just met Americans saying, God, you've got so much stuff that we don't have. Well, it's an opportunity to do a plug for our wonderful newsletter that's coming. So for people who subscribe to our newsletter, which is getting better and better and better, shout out to Emily Izzy and the team. So from Trump to Elon Musk and J.D. Vance, why do you? do American leaders demonize Britain? And what impact has this had on how Americans view the UK? So coming out this weekend on our Sunday read, receive that by signing up using the link in the

episode description. Okay, and I've got a couple of plugs. The first is for our mini-series on Andy Burnham, with me and Steve Rotherham talking about becoming Burnham, how Andy Burnham went from where he was to where he is. And also, I'm going to, despite my deep, profound dislike of podultery, I'm going to allow one final plug for your event with a young chap called Lewis Goodall, who I believe presents a podcast. Is it political currency or erectile dysfunction? I can't remember which what it is. You and Lewis Goodall are going to be at the Dominion Theatre in London on September the 13th. And to get tickets for that, you go to feign.co. com. Thank you, Alassad. That's very kind of you. I'd like to say I had very good things about

Grace's show at the Edinburgh Fringe. I always also went to see a lovely show yesterday at the French with Will Adamsdale called AI, AIO, which if you have a chance ever to see it when it, I hope, comes to London, is really funny, and you would really relate to. What is it? Is it anti-AI? In the end, yeah, it's a hilarious story about somebody trying to develop a relationship with an AI bot and how it all goes wrong. And actually, he's on stage with the AI speaking to him, teasing him, things.

So that'd be lovely. But yes, if anyone like to come, there's still tickets available. Louis Godol and I, 13th September, and I think it'll be great audience questions, big engagement with a huge issues for our time and a good way of getting back into global and British politics the start of the autumn. Thank you all. Take a break and then we'll come back and talk about elections in Palestine and Israel. Two and five Canadians will hear the words, you have cancer. That's why every step and dollar raised matters. On September 19th, join thousands in Toronto for the Princess Margaret Cancer

Foundation walk. Yourself, friends, and family to walk 21 kilometers in support of life-saving research. Together, we can carry the fire and help create a world free from the fear of cancer. Register today at pmcf walk.ca.ca. When Westcham first took flight in 1996, the vibes were a bit different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion, inline skates were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the 90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board.

Here's to WestJetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at westjet.com slash 30 years. Your playlist might get you through the workday, but have you ever wondered how your ancestors spent theirs? What work helped them build a life? How did they adapt as the world around them changed?

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Welcome back to the rest of politics question time with me, Alistair Campbell. And with me, Rory Stewart. Question from Alex, why after 20 years of avoiding elections in Palestine has Mahmoud Abbas finally concluded that holding an election is less dangerous than avoiding one? Well, look, the honest answer is I don't know, haven't talked to him. I've talked to lots of people in his orbit. I think the honest answer is direct pressure. I think he's been put under a lot of pressure by the European Union.

I think he's been put under pressure by the US. And I think he's been put under pressure by some of the powers in the region as well. And by your friend, the French, the French were very much putting pressure on him about this. Absolutely, yeah. Look, if it happens, if this election happens, and I think it's a big if, for all sorts of reasons, which will come on to. But if it happens, it is an opportunity to try to. to see whether some of the old amenities can be sorted out on the Palestinian side, and also to see whether they can get some kind of new energy

into the political process amongst Palestinians. Because I think that I'm sure he's got a lot of talent, but it seems to me that the biggest talent he's got has been one for his own personal survival. Am I right that he's actually 90 now? I mean, we think Trump and Biden are old. And he has let people down so much and so consistently. I don't know whether people remember that he,

promised that he was going to effectively march on Gaza and then everyone's like, oh, at last he's doing something and he didn't ever do anything. Meanwhile, it is so corrupt, so useless. And it completely plays into the hands of extremists in Israel who say, you can't have a Palestinian state because look at how useless the Palestinian Authority is. They're not capable of governing themselves. So there is a real chicken and egg here. I mean, yes, Israel's making it impossible for them. They're basically smart rich. as finance ministers cut off all their sources of revenue, they can't get hold of customs revenue, it looks like they're going to be debanked entirely. So they can't get any money

at all. But boy, they're not helping themselves. I mean, the net popularity ratings, I think now of Fatah and the governing authorities is down. It's always down to single digits. There's a lot of interesting things going on, though. So there was a meeting in, I think it was in Cairo, between a guy, this guy, Mohammed Dalan, who is the head of a breakaway faction. from Fatah, who met with the leader of Hamas. And they talked about the need for unity of the national opposition. That was Dallan's Democratic Reform Party speaking. And then, of course, the other question that I think any pending election,

particularly a presidential election, is bound to provoke, is discussion about Marwan Baguti. Because whereas in our system, the UK, prisoners can't vote. In the Palestinian system, they can be candidates for, prison. And I think there's a big, big decision for Barguti and his supporters, which are many. I mean, he's still by some distance, the most popular Palestinian political figure, even though he's been in jail for some time. But the question that I think his team are having to struggle with is, does he join one of these existing lists? Does he try to sort of be part of that national

unity, or are the risks of being associated with something like Hamas just too great? His background is very much fat-up? Or does he create a whole new list? Or does he wait and then go for the presidential election when that comes along? Yeah. And the Dachlan thing is really interesting. So we've been covering a lot the splits that are now happening in the Gulf. And the big split is United Arab Emirates, so Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin-Said is now well off in an increasingly different world from Qatar, Saudi, Kuwait, because it's so pro-Israel, so pro-Trump and is taking sides against the, it's Gulf states, particularly against Saudi in places like Yemen, where it's literally ended up with Saudi blowing up Emirati boats in ports. And Mohammed Dathlan has traditionally

been the UAE candidate. He actually lived in Abu Dhabi for a very long time. He's close to Muhammad bin Zayed. And UAE's big identity, along with showing loyalty in the case of Sudan to a genocide or warlord, but showing loyalty around the world to people who they see as fighting the Muslim Brotherhood, they see the big threat as being Islamists. So the traditional split would have been UAE behind Dachlan and Qatar and people more sympathetic towards Muslim Brotherhood providing funding for Hamas. Those two forces coming together is really interesting and remarkable. Yeah.

Because it's happening at a moment at which relationships between UAE, Saudi and Qatar are at an all-time low. I mean, for the first time, you have social media counselors, you pointed out, associated with the leaders, openly attacking each other, trying to humiliate and embarrass their rivals. So I find it very difficult to believe that can be pulled off, but it's a really interesting story. because, and the whole question of what you do, I mean, again, to remind people, the reason why there haven't been elections for 22 years is basically that Hamas won the elections when they had them last time. And despite our great commitment to democracy and elections, as soon as Hamas won, of course, we basically disallowed the elections. And Dathlan, who was born in Han Yunus in Gaza,

was the fatah strongman leading the civil war fight against Hamas. So, you know, that's a huge move, which I still can't quite believe. No, and it is a, I think it is a potential game changer. It makes me worry that those who worry about where that might lead to something quite powerful won't necessarily want the election to happen. I was talking to somebody who said that the Israelis are making it very, very difficult to get just the infrastructure for an election put in place. And also might have asked at some point think,

well, the pressure's off me a bit now, I can maybe postpone them. Might you actually think having two elections different times in such a complicated, dangerous time, bring both together, have the parliamentary elections, presidential election at the same time? If you were trying to stop this election happening, let's say that you were part of an Israeli movement that really believe that these elections are not helpful for Israel. An obvious thing to do is to draw attention to what we say about Ukraine, you know, what you and I said about Ukraine in the last episode, which is we're saying, oh, no, we can't have elections in Ukraine because there's a war going on and because all these people have been displaced from their homes and refugees and very difficult to do election and monitoring, etc. And I think they would quickly say, oh, well, if you think that about Ukraine, why are we having elections in Palestine?

I'm surprised Bibi hasn't tried to pull that one in while we're having elections in Israel, because that's the other big election that's coming up quite soon. Just under polling, Roy, I mean, I don't know how easy it is to do polls in the occupied territories, but there's a poll that was sent to me, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. And two really interesting things. The first thing, let me give you this one first, and you can come back to me when I've given you the rest of it. Support for peace negotiations has risen to 44% the highest in four years, while support for armed struggle has fallen to 27% lowest in four years. 56% still support a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders.

58% see a two-state solution as impractical given settlement expansion. And in terms of the horse race of the potential future presidents, Marwan Baguiti in prison 54%, Khalil Al-Haya, the leader of Hamas, 26 and 14% for Abbas, and it goes up in the West Bank to 63. So he's clearly the person that most Palestinians would like to see. But again, the chances of a government with Benghavir in it, who's actually visited Bargutie in prison so he could insult him, letting him out at a time when he's allegedly building gallows to hang Palestinians,

I think is small. It brings us back to the question of what, you know, how this connects to our stories about Canada and Ukraine and the AFD. And I think we need to talk more about the International Criminal Court. And Europe needs to be much, much stronger in defending the International Criminal Court and defending, you know, Japanese judges on the International Criminal Court who are now facing sanctions from the United States, their bank accounts suspended. In the end, if this post-war order meant anything, as you keep saying, it's about the rule of law.

it's about rules of war and it needs to be able to do its job and I cannot understand why the United States would be opposing it it's not actually that American soldiers are about to be indicted by the ICC there are only been 60 big indictments these are cases which have most of the in fact been targeted in place like sub-Saharan Africa

but we need to be able to hold to very very basic principles around law and how you can conduct yourself, Laura. Let's just take one example, which we covered in April 2025, which was this extraordinary moment where a paramedic convoy, I mean ambulances, which were clearly ambulances, were attacked by Israeli soldiers. And there's been an extraordinary report done by forensic architecture and earshot that found that 844 gunshots were fired in just five minutes and 30 seconds, fired directly towards the emergency vehicles and aid workers,

five shooters firing simultaneously, no obstructions limiting their line of sight, and Israeli soldiers appear to have walked towards the aid workers continuing to shoot and executed some of the aid workers at point-blank range as close as one metre away, and then proceeded to immediately start doing earthworks on the site and burying people. I mean, not very carefully, which is why actually one was able to get the mobile phones out of the corpses that have been buried under Earth. But if we're talking about the rule of law and we're talking about Israel as a democracy, the IDF has said there were several, I quote, several professional failures, breaches of orders and a failure to fully report the incident. But it hasn't called for criminal charges against the military units involved. And it concludes that the IDF's code of ethics was not breached.

So, you know, as we're going through an investigation into British special forces in Afghanistan for executing people, and we've been through similar things in the US, similar things in Australia, how is it possible for an incident like this, which is documented very unusually? I mean, it has not been possible to document any other incident in Gaza with such precision because there was so much mobile phone footage and coverage that it's unambiguous. And yet they simply say code of ethics hasn't been breached. Some professional standards would appear to. Yes, impunity. It's impunity. What also often happens, particularly in when you have forces of the Israeli state, supporting the settlers in their violence against the Palestinians, when it gets out of hand, you often have statements saying, you know,

there will be a full investigation. The investigation never even happens. At least this investigation happened. Often they just never happen and they move on. Look, I think this theme of impunity is just, fundamental to so many of the problems that you and I talk about all the time. Because if you don't have rules, if you don't have norms and values that everybody signs up to, you have chaos. And of course, why does Trump not want to support something like the ICC? It's because he fancies every now and

then breaking international law. And he doesn't want to be held accountable for it. Same as Putin, same as, you know, we could go on and list them. The trouble is at the moment, they're more powerful and there are more of them than they've been historically during our lifetime. So that's the issue. And then the worst thing that happens is when the people who trying to sort of stay on the straight and narrow, trying to abide by the rule of law, reach a point of thinking, well, actually maybe, you know, maybe they do better by pushing the rules by not being so sort of hidebound as they would see it. Just on this, because we get so gloomy on this and we keep getting stuck in the horror.

of what's happening. And we did an interview on leading, which if people haven't listened to, I'd really recommend because it's about hope and optimism. And it's about Israel and Palestine. And it's an Israeli and a Palestinian talking about peace, unflinchingly talking about peace. The Israeli has managed to have both his parents were burnt to death, killed in the October 7th attack. And the day after that attack, he was already calling for peace. the Palestinian, his brother was tortured in Israeli prison and then died. He's also calling for peace. So the Aziz and Mao's interview, I thought, was absolutely brilliant. There's another really good thing that's been done actually by Justin Cohen, who helped support a really interesting project on Quranic commentary on the Torah, where he's brought together a Muslim and Jewish scholar looking at the incredible overlaps between Islam and Judaism and their common reflections on the Old Testament. Anyway, people are. doing this stuff, but I'd really like to direct you to begin with to that leading interview. Over to you. Right, Roy, I'm now going to put you in charge of the Andy Burnham team. Oh, yeah.

To answer Lex's question. If you were preparing Andy Burnham for his first PMQs, what would you focus on? So, Rory, I'm sure that question was directed at you, not me, obviously. Totally, totally. So the first thing I would do is I would say to him, get in Alistair Campbell. If you want somebody piously and boringly banging on about the rules-based international order, you can have me. But if you want someone who really understands how to think about taking the fight to the opposition and doing QT, get in Alice. So Alice will come on. What would you say? Well, do you know what?

I think I've said a couple of times that it's going to be very interesting when he gets back into Parliament, when Parliament gets back, to see whether he can keep up this sense that he gives of, being nice, being calm, and not attacking his opponents too much, it'd be very, very interesting. It really will be interesting to see whether he can do it. So this is really high-stakes stuff. Presumably the real risk is that a guy who has been brilliant, really brilliant on social media and done very well as Mayor of Manchester, suddenly finds himself in the very unfamiliar environment of Parliament. And then you have the kind of things that happened, I guess, to Theresa May. and maybe to Rishi Sunak and others, which is,

or maybe even Gordon Brown. I don't know how good he was at PMQ's. Maybe I don't want to pull you on that, because he's your mate. So I'll leave that, let that go. Mate-ish. Let that go. Or maybe the Kemi-Badnock lesson is that actually you can learn to do it, that even if you're not that great initially,

it's something that you can learn to do. But anyway, risky now? Yeah, but don't forget, by the way, he's an experienced parliamentarian. He was in Parliament and as a cabinet minister for some time. So was Ian Duncan Smith, But he didn't do so great at the dispatch box. The quiet man is turning up the volume.

But I think PMQ's is of a different order to anything he's done before. I can honestly say that from the first day he did it to the last day, 10 years later, Tony Blair was, it's the one thing that used to make him a bit nervous. Because, yes, you might know, you can usually guess what's coming. You can usually work out the line that the main opposition leader is going to take. not always, but usually. But the stuff they can get you is when you're not 100% sure

of your ground, you're not 100% sure of the facts and somebody, and it might be a backbencher, it might be the frontbencher, but somebody just sort of catches you out. Give us an example of that because obviously the impression Tony Blair gave was that he was a real master of this stuff and he was unbelievably good at digesting a brief

and being on top of his facts and figures. But were the, Can you remember any moments where Blair was slightly thrown off balance by questions that he wasn't expecting? I don't know if you've told you with this one before. The one that pops into bye-bye was when, I think it was in our first year, we had this idea of doing an annual report. Okay. Like, he's the CEO of the country. We did an annual report.

We set out all the great things that the government has achieved in the first year. I think it might have been an idea that Peter M. And Nelson floated when he was sort of in charge during the summer. He'll never forgive me for saying that. But anyway, so we had this annual report, and we started it with an event in the garden. We had all the military in there and the top civil servants and all sorts of people. Then, of course, he goes to Parliament. Meanwhile, the annual report has been published.

And people are thinking, this is just a glossy piece of bullshit. This is just not very significant to why we have a statement of Parliament. And Peter Brook, the Tory, former cabinet minister, who was then on the back, benches. He stood up and he said, can the prime minister explain the significance within his annual report of the picture on page 47? And then sat down. And Tony, of course, has to scrabble to find page 47 that it's a picture of a packet of contraceptive pills, which of course was in a thing about sexually transmitted diseases and what have you. And of course, everybody had the annual report.

Everybody got to page 47 at the same time. And the whole place captained, including Tony. And that was the last time we ever had an annual report. Genius. Yeah. Before we get on to Burnham, can we just go, I suppose, on a sort of your Sunsa,

know your enemy. What would you be thinking that Kemi Bidnock might do? What might she think her attention? tack line could be to really unsettle him at his first PMQs? Well, I think after a very shaky start, she has developed a sense of real confidence and pretty brutal attack. Okay. So I think she'll want to do that.

I think she'll start by being nice and welcome in all that, blah, blah, blah, blah. I think the line that the touries seem most comfortable with at the moment, I don't think this will work, by the way, but I think it's what they're trying at the moment, is that it's all a bit showy. It's all a bit vibesy. So if I were her, I'd go on some really big, probably stuff that he can't answer related to the budget coming up. So I'd go in the economy, you've got the budget coming up, and factual questions, really hard factual questions. They're the ones I used to dread at briefings, by the way, is a factual question that you should know the answer to. And so a factual question would be something like, I noticed that you've talked about building

this number of houses how much would cost, or you've talked about this tax change, exactly how much revenue will it? And what is the modelling the Treasury is produced on the revenue implications? Or, so what most MPs like to do is to display their own knowledge when they ask the question. Right. You know, the Prime Minister will be aware, as I am, that, you know, 0.8% of this has done this to that. Actually, just to stand up and say, you know, the Prime Minister has inherited the pledge of his predecessor to build 1.5 million homes over the period of this Parliament. Can the Prime Minister tell me exactly

how far down that track we are, how much that has cost so far, cost it his chequer, and whether he's da-da-da-da. So you just give him a factual question. You could even, you know, I think sometimes Can I pause on that one? So let's imagine you're at that dispatch box

and somebody does that to you. How the hell do you get out of that? Do you have to have all those figures at your fingertips? Is that the only way to survive that? It's better if you do. And the most, one of the most important people in Tony Blair's time at Primacy's Questions was a woman who now still works for Tony actually called Catherine Rimmer, who built the most incredible sort of database of fact and then was thinned down. Tony Blair had a thin version of the facts and he had a thick version of the facts.

That would probably be in the thicker version. It might not be actually because, you know, you've got to work out. What the team does is try to work out every possible question that might come and then make sure he has the factual answers. One of the things when I was sitting on the front bench, I'd sometimes do with Theresa May, who I adored, is try to lean over, and if it was something to do with something I knew about, give the answer.

So with that, possibly, the housing minister leans over and says, you know, we spent $23 billion, we've built this number of houses, this is our projection. No? Or maybe that puts off the poor man as he's about to get to his feet.

Well, it might do. it looks a little bit weak. I think you can only do it if you're literally sitting next to them. Right. Sometimes you can see people prodding them from behind. I think that's always a bad look. Yeah. And the particularly ones you sort of sit there with, you know, fiddling with their papers. But I think, Kimmy's strategy will be to welcome him and then go for what she works out to be his weak spot, which I think at the moment they think is, you know, it's all a bit vibey rather than real substance. And then get into the budget, pre-budget. I think his strategy will be to, will be to try to show a kind of new style, but also I think he'll use it to remind people of a lot of the things that

he's done since taking over. If I were him, I'd be thinking on the day of having something pretty big to announce that day that takes over. I would do that. And you'd announce it in the morning before Parliament met and to have the ire of the speaker, or you'd announce it in a statement before PMQs? Or you'd maybe even drop it in PMQs. Based on a question that you know is coming. Very good. Oh, very good. Something absolutely huge that gets everybody thrown off the balance.

No, absolutely huge. Not absolutely huge. Because often the first question comes from one of your own back benches, doesn't it? Before the opposition leader gets their feet. Yeah. You know, when we talked to Johnny Mercer on leading, and he said that we were both angry when he had the first question to Johnson when he was on the ropes and he asked him something about, you know, quite supportive.

But, yeah, and one of the most infuriating things that Whips find is when question number one is your own side, but they don't want to play. So I think then the other thing you have, the other thing I think you'll work out is you do have different strategies for the different parties. Tony was always, even though he had a good relationship with Paddy Ashdown, he was always probably more dismissive of the Lib Dems. He always used to have Taiton, they're not the serious party. So, and I think what will be interesting, where I think Andy will find him most tested,

this nice guy thing tested, is with reform. you know because Farage is still although I think he's peaked and his parties are you know I think he's still a threat and so anyway he's going to be interesting be interesting so listen just as we end this section on PMQs alice you've done a great miniseries on Andy Burnham so anybody who's serious about understanding our new prime minister it's with Steve Rotherham and actually it's one of the miniseries that gets better and better as you keep going so push on through episode two and three lots of new staff coming and do so sign up at the rest of politics.com for our newsletter,

which is becoming a more and more high-quality product. Yeah, well, I think one of the two of our listeners and viewers thought I was, so I was a bit too pro-labour that me and Steve Rothera were a bit too pro-labor. Yeah. What? Shocked. I was shocked by that. No, no, no way.

Absolutely shocked. To listen to the series, become a member at the rest of politics.com, and that's what will also let you listen to the mini-series that I'm about to bring out on existential threats and many other things that we produce. Right, Rory, you know how I'd love to help you plug your own projects and your own books. Here's one from Joe. Has Rory ever considered turning politics on the edge into a TV series? Well, the answer is yes, absolutely.

And in fact, the TV rights were bought. And I was working with a really brilliant writer and producer. One thing, of course, is to make a – he wanted to make a drama, not like a sort of biography. It's really interesting developing that. We had to develop a Labour candidate to parallel. the Conservative candidate, sort of in inverted commas, roary, and then work out how to weave them in and each other through six episodes, and as she shoots up through the Labour Party

and I collapse within the Conservative Party and how these different things play out. It's been interesting also talking to commissioning editors. I mean, you would have been through this a lot on trying to get these things made on whether they think there's much appetite for a mini-series on UK politics, even with, you know, we had a very, very glamorous female leader as our Labour MP, who was going to be the key thing here, and whether people feel things like Brexit are just so exhausting and depressing. They can't bear to watch it again.

But yeah, I really enjoyed that. I really enjoyed putting it. Have you done sort of fictional drama miniseries stuff? I've been involved in several. I was involved in the TV production of Chris Mullins' books about, Was it Harold Perkins? What was the prim minister? Yeah.

He's fictional prime minister. And then when you said those words bought the TV rights, I had a bit of a kind of, you know, stab to the heart because one of the best moments of my life was when Jimmy McGovern, the great TV dramatist and film writer and so forth, he phoned me up and he said, he'd read my first novel, all in the mind. Yeah. And he said, has any of you brought the rights to this yet? I said, no, not as far as I'm aware.

And he said, well, I want to. Oh, my God. Jimmy McGovern wants to turn all in the mind into a TV series. And I was so excited about it. And he really did work at it. And after about six months he came back and he's such a perfectionist. I just can't quite make it work in the way that I want. And da-da-da-da-da-da-da.

So I'd love it if he came back and changed his mind on that. No, I've done loads of stuff like that. But mainly as a kind of advisor-consultant. And then, of course, I was in that thing recently about the phone hacking thing where I had one line with David Tenon, who was playing Nick Davis, the Guardian journalist. And, oh my God, I don't know how these actors do it. So many takes for by one lied.

Yeah. To get it exactly as you want to. My biggest moment was long before I became a politician, Brad Pitt bought my life rights for my Afghan book. And I had Orlando Bloom came up to stay with me here in Scotland. We went climbing up the small gland together And he brought his dad along weirdly There was an amazing thing

We had a supper at home And suddenly there was a lady very kindy cooking for us But she suddenly turned up with like Nine additional unpaid waitresses Who just wanted to peer at Bollando Bloom Giving the impression that I lived in a kind of country house For like 10 staff Are you sure they didn't want to see you?

I'm pretty sure they don't really sure Well, listen, you know, you remember a few weeks ago we talked about the book Northstream conspiracy. Oh, yes. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and I said, this has got to be made into a film, right? Yeah.

And I'm not saying this is the reason, but it's now being made into a film called Snake Island starring Adrian Brody and Sean Penn. Oh, brilliant. Yeah. Oh, brilliant. And Sean Penn is one of the divers, presumably. I get, well, I don't know, because also, if you remember, it was the woman who, the person who actually planted the bomb was a woman.

a former exotic model, as they call it. So we need to know who's playing her. I mean, that's the great role, isn't it? That's going to be the big role as far as I'm concerned. I think she's called Frankie. Anyway, that's good news. So there we are. Yeah, well, we're not going to ask you who you're going to cast

because that could be quite creepy as you'd take us through all your favorite actresses. Yeah, that would not, that would not be good. Isabel Huper. And the family question time, yeah. I've also got to tell you, Roy, even though I'm not going to tell you any more detail now, I know you think I work too hard. And Fiona has actually complained several times on this holiday about my unhealthy relationship with work. She was particularly pissed off when we had to delay our departure for somewhere because Santa Marin had kept us waiting for 40 minutes before an interview.

But there we go. That's what life as a podcaster can sometimes be. Little plug for that, though, coming out on leading interview with the extraordinary, extraordinary previous prime minister of Finland. But yes, she was 45 minutes late. And oddly didn't apologize. and you like people to be on time. The production team and I are very aware of that. I'm not sure this is quite as well as what's your George Bush thing that you keep reminding yourself?

Bill Clinton and George Bush never kept me waiting. Never kept you waiting, exactly. George Bush doesn't allow people into the room if they're late. And it was going on to say that with my unhealthy relationship with work, I have actually now finished my next book. Oh my goodness. Yeah. What is the book gone then?

No, I'm going to wait. I'm going to wait. You're going to wait? You're going to wait? Well, congratulations. Blimey. I mean, I am embarrassed to say that I can just about do podcasting, a bit of teaching. I am not making progress the book.

You're not. And my editor, listening to this, will be immediately now sending me an email saying, can we please have a call? What on earth is going on? The publisher actually said there's a really big market for short books about simple themes. And that's what it is. You'll be the first to know, Rory. Good.

Well, I'm looking forward to it very much. But short book, simple theme, sounds like a real winner. That does sound like, yeah. I hope so. I hope so. Yeah. So, yeah, we've even got a publication date. I'm looking at covers later today.

So this has been a great holiday. Fiona's absolutely loved it. No, but you've now assured Fiona that you will now be taking time off and not signing up for another book. Absolutely. I'll be, I'm going to go into an 11-day retreat. I'm going to sit cross. leg, I'm not good to do any work of the podcast. And I'm not doing any speeches. I'm not doing any campaigning, nothing.

Well, I'm sadly coming to the end of the most amazing five weeks in Kreef here in Scotland. Rain going on outside in school. And I'm off next week to Silicon Valley, where I'm going to do that terrifying flight out to California, where I'm going to be sitting talking about AI again. So I feel, you know, a beautiful five weeks coming to an end. Well, we've had a great, I mean, I honestly don't feel I've had a holiday and nor does Fiona because we actually drove to split. Was that a mistake by any chance? No, it wasn't a mistake.

It was just because we have the dog that Fiona won't go away without the dog. So the only way I could get Fiona to come was to get the dog to come. So we stopped off at various different places and then we got to split. We have had actually a really good time, but I'd be lying if I said either of us felt fully rested. Split was three days full-on socialising award ceremonies, football matches. And you also had to play an entire football match. And you're not, I don't want to be rude,

but you're not the same age as some of those other footballers. I mean, that must be pretty tiring. Yeah, it might be. But the truth is, I mean, both Namanyevidditch and Marcel Desai said to me, because we had rolling substitutions. You come on and off, right? Right, right. And I was looking at them saying, come and say,

no, no, no, you stay, you stay. So when I finally came off and I was trying to push them on and they said, no, no, no, I don't want to get injured. I don't want to get injured. You've got to remember, these guys have had so many operations on their knees and their hips and their backs. But does that mean when you tackle them, you have to be pretty careful because you don't want to be the guy who actually injures one of them? Rory, you're talking to me. I don't care if they're get injured. A tackle is a tackle.

There's actually one moment, which I'm afraid was filmed, where I pushed the. this 14-year-old into the crowd. Anyway, it was a tight game. We'll get that. We'll get that on film. Definitely. Anyway, listen, the youth sport games. It's my final point, Rory, because I'm determined over time to convert you to sport.

Yeah, Hannes Hahn, who is a former European commissioner and also an ambassador to the games, he actually said that the youth sport games should be nominated, and he intends to nominate him for a Nobel Peace. Prize. They've had half a million children took part this year in this thing, right? From this country, this region. And if they don't get the Nobel Peace Prize, if Infantino's listening, maybe a FIFA Peace Prize. Or are you going to give it to Donald Trump every single year? Brilliant. I also want to give a shout out, Roy, to a gentleman by the name of Avon Perriman,

who most people in boxing know is a big, big figure in boxing. boxing, and our listeners and viewers may have heard us read out his question last week. Unfortunately, it wasn't his question. He actually asked the question about boxing, which maybe we'll answer some other time. But it was one of those, I think we call it a producer's cut and paste issues that got a bit wrong. But Avon, thank you for your question. Thank you for listening. Yeah, and you don't want to be on the wrong side of one of the great legends of boxing.

No, yeah. Don't. Don't. I think legend might overstate it. you know, involved in boxing, but AVORory's eyes, you're a legend. Okay, Rory, see you next week. See you next week. Bye-bye. Hello, everybody. We've got some exciting news to share with you. We do indeed. As you all know, the rest is politics plus members get early access to question time. They get at-free listing. They get exclusive series and a host of other benefits.

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